Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices have been on the rise due to increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a significant drop in U.S. crude oil inventories, with Brent and WTI prices reaching $75.48 and $73.84 per barrel respectively as of June 20, 2025 [7][29] - The oil and petrochemical sector has shown mixed performance, with the sector down 1.03% while the broader market (CSI 300) fell by 0.45% [8][11] - The report highlights the increase in global offshore drilling platforms, with a total of 378 self-elevating platforms and 134 floating platforms as of June 16, 2025 [35] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of June 20, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $75.48 per barrel, up $1.25 (+1.68%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures rose to $73.84 per barrel, an increase of $0.86 (+1.18%) [29] Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global self-elevating drilling platforms increased by 1 to 378, while floating drilling platforms decreased by 2 to 134 as of June 16, 2025 [35] U.S. Crude Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.431 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.03 million barrels from the previous week [49] U.S. Crude Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing averaged 16.862 million barrels per day, down 364,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 93.20%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points [59] U.S. Crude Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 823 million barrels, a decrease of 11.243 million barrels (-1.35%) from the previous week [68] U.S. Product Oil Inventory - As of June 13, 2025, U.S. gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories were reported at 230.013 million, 109.398 million, and 44.428 million barrels respectively, with slight increases in gasoline and diesel inventories [59] Related Companies - Key companies mentioned include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [1]

原油：以伊仍存不确定性，油价波动扩大 正信期货原油周报 20250623 研究员：付馨苇 投资咨询编号：Z0022192 Email: fuxw@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 研究员：赵婷 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 5 原油供需平衡总结 PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/ PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/ PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/ PPT教程： www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/ 范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/ 教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cn PPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/y ...

6月23日，集运欧线主力合约盘中快速回落，最终以4.67%的跌幅领跌国内商品市场。虽然目前市场关注地缘局势对大宗商品带来的影响，但尚未对欧线产 生实际影响，据航司方面表示，船只继续通过霍尔木兹海峡，叠加基本面的利空压力，市场情绪偏弱。不过，需要注意的是，地缘局势仍有变化，可能会在 短暂的时间段内抵消悲观预期带来的利空。展望后市，南华期货表示，美线集运市场逐步达到供需平衡，运费大幅下跌，此前受外溢情绪影响的欧线运费也 因预期落空而有所回落。近期，部分船司7月初欧线现舱报价有所下调，可以说是引领期价回落的主因。对于后市而言，因周末中东地区地缘政治风险增 加，且伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡的可能性显著增加，可能对欧线造成一定的外溢影响，后续可继续关注其余船司是否跟进发布7月涨价函，以及以伊冲突的后 续发展。 供需双弱的基本面下，多晶硅主力合约连续第五个交易日收跌，跌幅3.30%，继续刷新上市以来新低30605元/吨。国投期货分析认为，当前多晶硅市场下行 的核心原因仍在于终端需求继高增速后持续阶段性回落，具体表现为组件订单量下降、电池片对应尺寸价格处于低位。从产业链传导看，市场对多晶硅供应 增加的预期升温，而硅片排产环比下调 ...

新华财经上海6月23日电（葛佳明） 中东地缘紧张局势的骤然升温，伊朗议会赞成关闭霍尔木兹海峡的 消息引发全球能源市场巨震，油运运费大幅攀升，推动原油、天然气、甲醇等重点能源品种价格为地缘 政治风险定价。 多数分析师接受新华财经采访时表示，中东局势或难以迅速降温，霍尔木兹海峡是中东地区重要油品出 口通道，短期冲突导致阶段性海运贸易受阻，使得各类资产再度上演剧烈波动。 通过复盘1970年以来中东地区重大冲突对市场的影响可以发现，在避险资产表现中黄金较美元表现更 优，对原油的短期影响最为直接，航运成本面临重构，液化天然气及甲醇市场也将受到显著影响。 油运运费大幅攀升 伊朗作为能源输出国，地缘冲突或对全球能源供应造成明显扰动。 霍尔木兹海峡是世界最重要的石油和天然气运输通道。美国能源信息署（EIA）的数据显示称，每天约 2000万桶石油通过霍尔木兹海峡运出。2024年和2025年第一季度，通过霍尔木兹海峡运输的石油占全球 海运石油贸易总量的四分之一以上，约占全球石油和石油产品消费总量的五分之一。2024年全球约五分 之一的液化天然气贸易也通过霍尔木兹海峡。 上周，伊以冲突升级已经导致船只开始避开霍尔木兹海峡。全球最大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relatively mild market reaction to the U.S. military action against Iranian nuclear facilities, indicating that investors perceive the conflict as short-term and primarily aimed at deterrence rather than long-term engagement [1][3][4]. Market Reaction - Global financial markets showed a muted response, with the MSCI index down only 0.2% and U.S. stock futures initially declining before recovering [1]. - Traditional safe-haven assets displayed mixed performance, with the Japanese yen down 0.64% against the dollar and gold prices falling by 0.23% to $3,360 per ounce [2]. Investor Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the market's calmness stems from optimism regarding the limited scope of the conflict, with many believing that the military action will not escalate into a broader confrontation [4][6]. - Dan Ives from Wedbush noted that the market views the attack as positive news, as it eliminates nuclear threats in the region [5]. Geopolitical Risk Assessment - Experts generally agree that, despite the seriousness of the situation, it does not pose a systemic threat to global markets, maintaining investor confidence [7]. - Peter Boockvar from Bleakley Financial Group emphasized that the outcome depends on Iran's response, suggesting that if Iran accepts the end of its military nuclear program, stability may follow [7]. Oil Price Scenarios - Morgan Stanley outlined three potential scenarios for oil prices post-U.S. military action: 1. If military conflict does not disrupt oil flow, Brent crude could drop to $60 per barrel [15]. 2. A significant reduction in Iranian exports could lead to oil prices trading between $75 and $80 [16]. 3. A broader conflict could risk oil exports in the Gulf, potentially driving prices to levels seen in 2022, around $140 [16]. Long-term Market Outlook - Some analysts maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for U.S. equities, with Ed Yardeni from Yardeni Research expressing confidence in the ongoing bull market [17][19]. - Yardeni predicts that the S&P 500 could reach 6,500 points by the end of 2025, citing the potential for fundamental changes in the Middle East following the destruction of Iranian nuclear facilities [19].

Group 1: Energy Sector Performance - The energy sector in the US saw a strong increase, with Houston energy stocks rising over 42%, and US energy stocks increasing by more than 25% [1] - Indonesia Energy followed closely with a rise of over 21% [1] - This surge in energy stocks is closely linked to heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly due to US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, raising concerns about global energy supply disruptions [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Impact on Oil Supply - The Iranian parliament's National Security Committee has suggested closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil trade, which carries about one-third of the world's maritime crude oil [1] - A potential closure of the Strait could threaten one-fifth of global oil supply, with market expectations indicating that oil prices could exceed $120 per barrel in the worst-case scenario [1] - The NYMEX WTI crude oil futures reacted by rising over 6% after opening [1] Group 3: Shipping Costs and Market Reactions - Charter rates for oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have surged over 100% within a week, with rates for very large crude carriers increasing from $19,998 to $47,609 per day, a rise of 138% [2] - Shipping companies are avoiding the route or significantly raising prices due to geopolitical risks and navigation signal interference [2] - Major oil companies like Shell have acknowledged being "particularly cautious" in Middle Eastern shipping and have developed contingency plans [2] Group 4: Company Developments - The autonomous driving technology company, WeRide, has secretly submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant step in its capital market strategy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The increasing geopolitical tensions and concerns over the reliability of the U.S. government, particularly under President Trump, are prompting countries like Germany and Italy to reconsider their reliance on the U.S. for gold storage, with calls for repatriation of gold reserves gaining traction [1][3][4]. Group 1: Concerns Over U.S. Gold Custodianship - German and Italian politicians express growing support for repatriating gold reserves due to fears about the reliability of the Trump administration [1][3]. - The World Gold Council reports that Germany and Italy hold significant gold reserves, with Germany possessing 3,352 tons and Italy 2,452 tons, both relying on the U.S. Federal Reserve for storage [1][3]. - The value of gold stored in the U.S. by Germany and Italy exceeds $245 billion [1]. Group 2: Historical Context and Policy Implications - The debate over the safety of storing gold abroad has intensified, with historical context highlighting past movements of gold reserves, such as France's transfer of gold back to Paris in the 1960s [6]. - A grassroots movement in Germany since 2010 has led to a shift in policy, resulting in the repatriation of 674 tons of gold from Paris and New York to Frankfurt [6]. - Despite calls for repatriation, the Deutsche Bundesbank maintains that the U.S. remains a crucial storage location for German gold, emphasizing the importance of having access to reserves for potential currency exchange [7]. Group 3: Central Bank Trends - A survey of over 70 central banks indicates a growing trend towards domestic gold storage due to concerns about access during crises [4]. - Countries like China, France, and Russia predominantly store their gold reserves domestically, contrasting with the practices of Italy and Lebanon, which rely on the U.S. [4].

随着美国总统特朗普屡次抨击美联储且全球地缘政治动荡加剧，德国与意大利正面临将黄金储备从纽约运回的呼声。 本周一项对70多家全球央行的调查显示，鉴于担忧在危机中取用黄金的能力，更多央行正考虑将黄金存储于国内。 曾属德国左翼党、现加入民粹主义政党BSW的前欧洲议会议员法比奥·德马西（Fabio De Masi）对《金融时报》表示，"在动荡 时期，有充分理由"将更多黄金转移至欧洲或德国本土。 世界黄金协会数据显示，德国与意大利分别持有3352吨和2452吨黄金储备，位居全球第二、第三。两国均高度依赖位于曼哈顿 的纽约联邦储备银行作为保管方，各自超三分之一的黄金存储于美国。据《金融时报》计算，两国存美黄金总市值超2450亿美 元。 全球各国央行的黄金储备排行 这主要源于历史原因，同时也反映出纽约与伦敦并列为全球最重要黄金交易枢纽的地位。然而，特朗普反复无常的政策制定及 整体地缘政治动荡，正推动欧洲部分地区就该黄金的存储安全展开公开辩论。本月初，这位美国总统称若美联储不降息，他可 能不得不"强行采取行动"。 在德国，将黄金运输回国的主张正吸引来自左右翼两派的支持。 巴伐利亚基督教社会联盟资深前议员彼得·高韦勒（Pete ...

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran could significantly impact international oil prices, potentially driving them to a range of $120-150 per barrel in extreme scenarios [1][8]. Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Prices - Goldman Sachs' commodity research team has reassessed risk scenarios due to Iran's threats to block the Strait of Hormuz, indicating that current oil prices include a geopolitical risk premium of about $10 per barrel [2]. - The market is preparing for a significant increase in oil prices over the coming months, although long-term expectations remain largely unchanged [2][3]. - In the event of a supply disruption, Brent crude oil prices could peak slightly above $90 per barrel, depending on the recovery of Iranian supply and OPEC+ production adjustments [2]. Group 2: Potential Disruption Scenarios - Four potential conflict escalation scenarios have been constructed by Goldman Sachs, with varying impacts on oil prices [4]. - In the baseline scenario, if geopolitical tensions persist without significant supply disruptions, Brent crude is expected to maintain a risk premium of $5-7, trading around $72 per barrel [5]. - If Israel attacks Iranian oil-related assets, oil prices could rise to the $80-90 per barrel range due to expected Iranian retaliation [6]. - In a scenario where Iran retaliates against regional assets, oil prices could clearly rise towards $100 per barrel [8]. - The most severe scenario involves Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, affecting 15-17 million barrels of oil supply daily, which could push prices to the $120-150 range [8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - The geopolitical tensions have led to a strengthening of the U.S. dollar, impacting currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars [10]. - A rapid increase in oil prices to $100 could negatively impact risk assets, with the S&P 500 potentially facing a decline of 200-300 points, particularly affecting AI-related stocks due to high concentration [10]. - The response in interest rate markets is complex, with potential inflation concerns from rising oil prices, but the Federal Reserve may overlook temporary price changes [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent oil price may continue to show high - volatility trends under the influence of highly uncertain geopolitical factors, and it is difficult to have an obvious trend. It is recommended to take a bullish approach in operation, but beware of the risk of a rapid short - term correction due to geopolitical cooling [12][66]. Summary by Directory 1. Operation Ideas - Last week, the oil price was affected by geopolitical factors and reached new highs since February. It is expected that political factors will remain the core support for the oil price this week, with some upward potential. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish approach for the domestic energy sector, but beware of short - term rapid oil price corrections due to geopolitical cooling [12]. 2. Market Review - Last week, the overall oil price was strong, mainly affected by the Iran - Israel conflict in the Middle East. Although the market briefly declined due to the "US - Iran call" news over the weekend, subsequent events such as the US joining the action against Iran and Iran's tough stance boosted the oil price again [18]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Macro - aspects - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% - 4.50% in the June meeting, which was in line with market expectations. The semi - annual monetary policy report also reiterated "wait - and - see before cutting interest rates", suppressing the short - term interest rate cut expectations [23]. - There is uncertainty about the successor to the Fed Chairman. Trump's criticism of Powell may affect subsequent Fed decisions and market expectations [26]. - The Iran - Israel conflict continued to escalate last week. Israel aimed to "eliminate Khamenei", and Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. The US also launched attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, making it difficult for the conflict to cool down in the short term and keeping the oil price volatile [30]. 3.2 Supply - aspects - In May, OPEC achieved a production increase of 183,000 barrels per day, and OPEC + increased production by 180,000 barrels per day in total [33]. - Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz. If the war escalates, it may cut off oil transportation through the strait, affecting about 22 million barrels of daily global oil transportation, which would impact the global supply - demand pattern [34]. - Saudi Arabia's oil production increased, while Iraq compensated for production cuts, and the US production remained stable [33][41][44]. 3.3 Demand - aspects - There is a slight improvement in summer demand expectations, but the manufacturing industries in China and the US continue to contract. However, the production of refined oil products continues to pick up [47][50][56]. 3.4 Inventory - aspects - US crude oil inventories from June 5 - 13 showed a significant decline, with API inventories dropping by 10.133 million barrels and EIA inventories dropping by 11.473 million barrels, which may support the WTI price [58]. - US refined oil inventories continued to accumulate. Gasoline and refined oil inventories increased last week, which may lead to a weakening of gasoline and diesel prices and a potential narrowing of the crack spread [61]. 4. Viewpoint Summary - Last week, the oil price was strong, though the weekly gain was limited over the weekend. The supply - side uncertainty in the commodity attribute, the Fed's interest rate decision in the financial attribute, and the high uncertainty of the Iran - Israel conflict in the political attribute all affect the oil price. Overall, the oil price may be highly volatile, and a bullish approach is recommended with caution for short - term corrections [66].