Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a significant decline on Thursday, with the three major indices recording their largest single-day drop in over a month, primarily driven by a downturn in AI leaders [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 797.6 points, closing at 47,457.22, a drop of 1.65%; the S&P 500 decreased by 1.66% to 6,737.49; and the Nasdaq Composite plummeted by 2.29% to 22,870.36 [2] Technology Sector - All seven major tech companies faced pressure, with Microsoft down 1.54%, Amazon down 2.71%, Apple down 0.19%, Tesla down 6.64%, Nvidia down 3.58%, and Google A down 2.84%; only Meta saw a slight increase of 0.14% [2] - In the S&P 500, nine out of eleven sectors declined, with the consumer discretionary sector leading the drop at 2.73% and the information technology sector falling by 2.37% [2] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks also faced challenges, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling by 1.59%; Baidu dropped over 6%, Bilibili fell nearly 5%, and both Xpeng Motors and NIO declined by over 3% [2] Economic Indicators - The US government reopened after a record 43-day shutdown, but the overall economic sentiment remains weak due to the disruption of key economic data releases [3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December have decreased to approximately 47%, down from 70% the previous week, reflecting uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's policy outlook [3] Company-Specific Developments - Cisco saw a rise of 4.6% after raising its full-year revenue and profit forecasts, benefiting from sustained demand for networking equipment [3] - Disney experienced a sharp decline of 7.8% as the company warned that its distribution dispute with YouTube TV could become prolonged, raising concerns about further pressures on its traditional television business [3]

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - Oil prices are currently experiencing a tug-of-war between supply and demand, with a short-term rebound seen as a temporary relief rather than a reversal [3] - The International Energy Agency has indicated a supply surplus for oil next year, while U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 6.4 million barrels, the largest rise since July [3] - The market is reacting to increased sanctions on Russian oil companies and a decline in refined oil inventories, suggesting that demand remains resilient [3] Group 2: Copper Market Dynamics - Copper prices have stabilized after four consecutive days of increases, driven by the end of the U.S. government shutdown, which had previously hindered the release of key economic data [3] - Copper is viewed as an "industrial barometer," closely tied to infrastructure and manufacturing, with domestic growth initiatives supporting demand [3] Group 3: Gold Market Trends - The recent decline in gold prices is primarily attributed to changing expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a December rate cut now at 50% [4] - Gold's appeal diminishes when interest rates do not decrease or rise, but its long-term value is still linked to inflation and global risk sentiment [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Companies in the energy sector should focus on those with reasonable valuations and stable cash flows, particularly in oil and gas extraction and refining [5] - For copper-related investments, attention should be given to firms tied to domestic infrastructure and new energy projects, as demand is expected to remain strong [5] - In the gold sector, a wait-and-see approach is recommended until interest rate expectations become clearer or global risk sentiment increases [5]

在总统特朗普签署了一项结束美国历史上最长政府停摆的支出法案后，黄金价格突破了4200美元关口， 此前停摆曾使美联储的关键经济数据被搁置。三菱日联金融集团的Soojin Kim表示："市场押注，一旦 数据流恢复，更疲软的美国经济前景可能会支持额外的降息，这将支持不生息的金属。尽管如此，美联 储内部的分歧依然存在，一些决策者倾向于暂停降息以遏制通胀。"黄金期货今年已上涨超过60%，受 到央行强劲需求和投资者寻求对冲主要经济体不断上升的财政风险的支撑。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Conclusions - The U.S. government shutdown has ended after 43 days, marking the longest shutdown in U.S. history, following the signing of a temporary funding bill by President Trump [1] - The release of significant liquidity from the Treasury General Account (TGA), which had accumulated nearly $1 trillion during the shutdown, is expected to ease global liquidity constraints [2] - The resumption of employment data disclosures, including non-farm payrolls, is likely to reignite expectations for interest rate cuts, as the labor market may show signs of weakness due to the shutdown's impact [3] - With the U.S. government reopening and a shift towards looser dollar liquidity, a rebound in risk assets, particularly Hong Kong stocks, is anticipated [4] - A strategic asset allocation favoring Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals, Hang Seng Technology, and gold is recommended, as broader asset classes are expected to benefit from the easing liquidity conditions [5] Global Major Asset Changes - Domestic CPI and PPI have unexpectedly improved, reinforcing inflation expectations, with CPI turning positive at 0.2% and PPI's decline narrowing to -2.1% [16][18] - October exports unexpectedly turned negative year-on-year, influenced by high base effects, while exports to the U.S. increased, indicating resilience in trade with emerging markets [17] - The prolonged U.S. government shutdown has led to liquidity tightening, impacting various asset classes, but this is expected to improve with the government's reopening [21] - The ADP employment data showed unexpected improvement, suggesting a potential increase in labor supply due to the shutdown's effects on government employees [25] - The Federal Reserve officials are leaning towards a cautious approach regarding interest rate cuts, with limited future rate reductions anticipated [29] Recent Major Asset Review - Domestic stock markets experienced a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27% while the CSI 300 fell by 0.66% [33] - U.S. and European stock markets saw declines due to the government shutdown and tightening liquidity, with the Nasdaq dropping by 3.04% [35] - U.S. Treasury yields increased amid uncertainties regarding interest rate cuts, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.10% [37] - Commodity prices fell, with WTI crude oil and Brent oil prices decreasing by 2.02% and 1.76%, respectively, due to concerns over demand [40] - The U.S. dollar index fluctuated, ultimately decreasing by 0.20%, while the onshore and offshore RMB experienced slight depreciation [42]

Core Insights - Australia's unemployment rate decreased to 4.3% in October, down from 4.5% in September, indicating a tight labor market and supporting the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision to maintain interest rates [1][2] - Employment increased by 42,200 jobs in October, all from full-time positions, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 20,000 [1] - The RBA's cautious stance on monetary policy is reinforced by the resilient labor market, which may reignite inflationary pressures [1][3] Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The labor market remains tight, with high job vacancy rates and a significant proportion of businesses facing recruitment difficulties [3] - Consumer confidence has improved, with optimistic respondents outnumbering pessimistic ones for the first time in four years [3] - Housing loan volumes reached a record high in Q3, driven mainly by investor loans [3] Market Reactions and Predictions - Following the employment data release, traders reduced expectations for RBA rate cuts next year, leading to a rise in the Australian dollar and a jump in three-year government bond yields [1][2] - The spread between three-year and ten-year government bond yields has narrowed due to expectations of reduced bond issuance this fiscal year [2] - The RBA forecasts the unemployment rate to remain at 4.4% over the forecast period, with employment growth expected to slow in the coming years [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. government's preparation to end the shutdown has boosted market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, leading to an increase in gold prices. Gold prices are highly sensitive to changes in monetary policy, and future trends will continue to be influenced by evolving rate cut expectations [1] - From a medium to long-term perspective, central bank demand for gold and investment interest in monetary easing and phase-based hedging will continue to drive precious metal prices higher. In the short term, London gold is focusing on a resistance level of $4,150, with support between $4,000 and $4,050. Silver has support at $49.5 to $50 and resistance at $52.5. As liquidity tightness eases, precious metals may continue to show a strong performance [1] - Despite recent corrections in precious metals, volatility has significantly decreased, and the London silver spot has returned to a premium state, indicating ongoing tightness in the spot market. With the U.S. government likely to restart and a December rate cut being a high probability event, the macro environment remains favorable for bullish positions [1] Group 2 - As of November 13, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) surged by 3.32%, with constituent stocks such as Yuguang Gold Lead (600531) up by 7.88% and China Gold International (02099) up by 7.60%. The Gold Stock ETF (159322) rose by 3.24%, closing at 1.63 yuan. Over the past week, the Gold Stock ETF has accumulated a rise of 3.69% [2] - The Gold Stock ETF has seen a net value increase of 68.27% over the past year, ranking 22 out of 3,157 index stock funds, placing it in the top 0.70%. The fund has achieved a maximum monthly return of 20.05% since inception, with a historical one-year profit probability of 100% [3] - The Gold Stock ETF closely tracks the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index, which selects 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales from the mainland and Hong Kong markets. As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 67.97% of the total [6]

11月11日，《金融时报》消息，英国家统计局发布的2025年6-9月期间，英失业率升至5%，雇员总数较 去年9月同期下降0.4%，从数值看同期约减少了11.7万个岗位；工资增速放缓，周工资年度增速从5-8月 的4.8%降至6-9月4.6%。该失业率数字为近10年来（不含疫情期间）最高值，也高于此前经济学家4.9% 的预测值；同时，该数字的披露对于即将于11月26日宣布今年秋季预算案的英政府而言不啻于一次打 击。预计财相里夫斯将在秋季预算中宣布增税举措以弥补约300亿英镑的财政漏洞。 智库决议基金经济学家康敏奈提（Nye Cominetti）认为英国劳动力市场呈现普遍疲软情况，呼吁英财相 在其即将宣布的秋季预算中避免给雇主增加更多成本并保障工薪阶层利益。 许多经济学家认为相较于进一步提升影响就业的税收，选择上调所得税税率造成的经济负面影响可能更 小，不过上调所得税有违工党的竞选纲领。雇主们认为如果政府选择推出限制薪资牺牲计划税收优惠的 政策，预计这种政策会造成和政府宣布上调雇主的国民贡献税率同样的效果（即雇主招聘成本上升，影 响招聘意愿）。 英工作和养老金大臣麦克法登（Pat McFadden）表示失业率数据显 ...

Core Viewpoint - A-shares experienced a collective rebound with significant gains in various sectors, particularly in lithium battery, photovoltaic, and precious metals, while traditional dividend sectors faced declines [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.80%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.68% [1]. - Main capital flowed into the ChiNext weight stocks, with strong performance across various themes, including solid-state batteries and lithium resources [1]. Group 2: Sector Highlights - **Lithium Battery Sector**: The lithium battery concept saw a strong surge, with companies like Huasheng Lithium and Ningde Times reaching new highs due to rising demand for energy storage and increasing prices of electrolyte additives [2]. - **Photovoltaic Sector**: The photovoltaic sector also experienced a rally, driven by government guidance on renewable energy integration and a response to market rumors, with companies like Lianhong Xinke and Hengxing Technology seeing significant gains [3]. - **Precious Metals**: International precious metal futures saw a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 2.07% to $4201.4 per ounce, supported by strong market adjustments and expectations of continued ETF inflows [4]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - **Shenwan Hongyuan**: The firm believes that the A-share market will maintain a volatile trend, with the spring of 2026 potentially marking a phase peak, but not the peak of the current bull market [5]. - **Zhongyuan Securities**: The firm suggests that the Shanghai Composite Index is likely to consolidate around the 4000-point mark, with a balanced market style expected to continue [6]. - **Everbright Securities**: The firm notes that the market is currently in a policy vacuum but anticipates strong policy expectations for December, with a positive outlook for sectors like photovoltaic and controllable nuclear fusion [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals. In the short - term, precious metals are strengthening. London gold's resistance has moved up to 4200, and if broken, it may retest the previous high of 4380. Its support is at 4120. Silver has skyrocketed due to the slow transfer of the COMEX 2512 main contract, with a resistance level moved up to 54.5, support at 51, and strong support at 49.5 - 50 [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Market Quotes Review** - On Wednesday, precious metal prices rose strongly due to the expected passage of the US temporary spending bill and the Fed's internal personnel adjustment favoring loose - money expectations. However, the possible absence of the US October CPI and non - farm payroll reports restricts the Fed's possibility of cutting interest rates at the December FOMC meeting. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4201.4 per ounce, up 2.07%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $53.23 per ounce, up 4.9%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 945.76 yuan per gram, up 0.16%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 12073 yuan per kilogram, up 2.02% [2]. **Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings** - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly rebounded. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 40.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 59.4%. For January 29, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 23.5%, a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 51.5%, and a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 25%. For March 19, the probability of unchanged rates is 13.4%, a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 39.4%, and a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 36.4%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 0.28 tons to 1046.64 tons, while iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15088.63 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 8.8 tons to 583.1 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 7.9 tons to 822.4 tons as of the week ending November 7 [3]. **This Week's Focus** - In terms of data, focus on the US CPI report on Thursday evening. Regarding events, on Friday at 01:15, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on monetary policy; at 01:20, 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will participate in a fireside chat; at 23:05, 2025 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid will speak on economic outlook and monetary policy. On Saturday at 03:30, 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan will participate in a fireside chat [4]. **Price and Inventory Data Tables** - **Precious Metal Price Table**: It shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures, as well as the CME gold - silver ratio [6]. - **Inventory and Position Table**: It presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE, CME, and SGX gold and silver inventories, as well as SHFE and fund positions in gold and silver [16][18]. - **Stock - Bond - Commodity Summary Table**: It includes the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of the US government reopening is high, with economic data cooling in advance and the expectation of interest rate cuts rising again, leading to an increase in gold and silver prices. The end of the US government shutdown is optimistically expected, risk appetite is recovering, and gold and silver prices are showing strength. COMEX silver has seen large short - term trading orders around 2 am for four consecutive days, and its price may fluctuate significantly [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US government is expected to reopen, economic data cooling expectations are ahead, and interest rate cut expectations are rising again, causing the gold price to increase. The US three major stock indexes closed with mixed results, European three major stock indexes closed up across the board, US bond yields were mixed, the 10 - year US bond yield remained flat at 4.067%, the US dollar index fell 0.01% to 99.47, the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1125, and COMEX gold futures rose 2.07% to $4201.4 per ounce. The basis is - 2.9, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 1800 kilograms to 89616 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the main long positions decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price soared. COMEX silver futures rose 4.90% to $53.23 per ounce. The basis is 0, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 8824 kilograms to 583060 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the main long positions increased [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The US government's reopening expectation, economic data cooling, and interest rate cut expectations are the main factors affecting the gold price. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to - 3 yuan/gram. The optimistic expectation of the end of the US government shutdown, the recovery of risk appetite, and the return of interest rate cut expectations make the gold price strong [4]. - **Silver**: The silver price has shown an abnormal increase, with a significant increase in positions. COMEX silver has seen large short - term trading orders around 2 am for four consecutive days, and the silver price may fluctuate significantly. The silver premium has converged to 250 yuan/gram. The end of the US government shutdown is optimistically expected, risk appetite is recovering, and the silver price remains strong under the push of funds [5]. 3. Today's Focus - 08:00: The US House of Representatives will vote on the draft to end the government shutdown. - 08:30: Australia's October employment report (including employment population and unemployment rate). - Time TBD: The 2025 6G Development Conference will be held in Beijing Economic - Technological Development Area from November 13 - 14. - 15:00: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce will hold its second regular press conference in November, and the UK's preliminary GDP for the third quarter will be released. - 17:00: The International Energy Agency (IEA) will release its monthly crude oil market report, the European Central Bank will release an economic report, and the Governing Council member of the European Central Bank and the Governor of the Bank of France will speak. - 20:00: Greene, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England, will speak. - 21:00: Daly, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (a voting member of the FOMC in 2027), will talk about balance sheet management, and Elderson, an Executive Board member of the European Central Bank, will speak. - 23:30: Kashkari, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (a voting member of the FOMC in 2026), will speak. - Next day 01:15: Musalem, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (a voting member of the FOMC in 2025), will participate in a fireside chat related to monetary policy. - Next day 01:20: Hammack, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (a voting member of the FOMC in 2026), will participate in a discussion. - Next day 01:30: Tschudin of the Swiss National Bank will speak at a money market event in Geneva. - Next day 04:10: Prasanna Gai, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, will speak. - Next day 06:10: McPhee, an Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, will participate in a fireside chat [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, and the inflation expectation has shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. However, the latter two of the three major factors (US government shutdown, Federal Reserve interest rate cut, and Sino - US tariff escalation concerns) have significantly improved or even reversed, and the support for the gold price has weakened significantly [9]. - **Silver**: The silver price still mainly follows the gold price. The tariff concern has a stronger impact on the silver price, and the silver price is prone to an enlarged increase. The factors affecting the silver price include both positive and negative aspects. Positive factors are global turmoil, significant shadow Federal Reserve, continued interest rate cut expectations, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to rising inflation, and the support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors. Negative factors are the rising expectation of stopping interest rate cuts, large differences within the Federal Reserve, less - than - expected European fiscal expansion, the US standing out again, the deterioration of risk preference, and the expectation of Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations [13][14]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long positions decreased. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 2966 to 168369, the short positions decreased by 453 to 70081, and the net position decreased by 2513 to 98288. The SPDR gold ETF position has increased in a fluctuating manner [4][31][35]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long positions increased. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 19974 to 387780, the short positions increased by 9470 to 265083, and the net position increased by 10504 to 122697. The silver ETF position is fluctuating and still higher than the same period in the past two years [5][33][38].