Core Viewpoint - After a nine-week rally, gold prices have experienced a significant drop, indicating a potential short-term correction rather than a trend reversal [1][2][5]. Market Performance - As of October 20, the Shanghai gold futures contract closed at 970 CNY, reflecting a daily decline of 1.63%, while silver fell by 3.99% to 11,742 CNY per kilogram [2][4]. - The recent drop in gold prices was influenced by a sharp decline in international market prices, which fell by 152 USD per ounce over the weekend [1]. Market Sentiment - The easing of geopolitical tensions and trade tariff concerns has led to a recovery in global risk appetite, prompting investors to withdraw from safe-haven assets like gold and silver [3][4]. - Despite the short-term sell-off, analysts believe that the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing central bank purchases and increasing investment demand [2][5]. Investor Behavior - There is a divide in investor sentiment, with some taking profits after the recent surge while others view the price drop as an opportunity to buy [6][7][8]. - Long-term funds continue to accumulate gold, with SPDR Gold ETF holdings increasing by 30.05 tons to 1,047.21 tons as of October 18 [9]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - COMEX gold inventories decreased by 25.9 tons to 1,216.4 tons, while silver inventories fell by 404.5 tons to 15,846 tons, indicating tightening supply conditions [9]. - The World Gold Council noted that despite concerns over overbought conditions, central banks have shown a tendency to buy on dips, suggesting sustained interest in gold [9].

2025.10. 20 本文字数：2259，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 齐琦 黄金在连涨9周后终于迎来喘息。 受周末国际市场金价急挫152美元/盎司拖累，沪金主力周一低开，从千元关口直线回落，盘中最低 触及960元/克。 截至10月20日收盘，沪金主力合约报970元，日内跌幅1.63%，沪银主力合约收跌3.99%。 金价"过热"快速切换至"急冻"的模式，宏观面上，随着地缘政治出现缓和消息，贵金属市场也出现快 速调整和获利了结情绪。不过有机构人士认为，这只是对短线超买的修正，而非趋势反转。 南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹对第一财经分析称，周末国际贵金属价格冲高回落，因贸 易关税担忧缓和，市场风险偏好回升，多头获利了结。尽管从中长期维度看，央行购金与投资需求增 长仍将助推贵金属价格重心继续上抬，但短期交易型与事件型冲击下的加速上行，投资者仍需保持警 惕心理，短线调整压力亦有所显现。 避险情绪短暂退烧 金瑞期货分析称，特朗普逐步释放的关税缓和信号及对多项产品的关税豁免，缓解了市场对贸易冲突 升级的担忧，全球风险偏好迅速回暖，资金从黄金、白银等避险资产中撤离。 "周五贵金属集体跳水的导火索或许是白 ...

Core Viewpoint - After a nine-week consecutive rise, gold prices experienced a significant drop, with international market prices falling by $152 per ounce, leading to a decline in domestic gold prices as well [1][2] Market Dynamics - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to easing trade tariff concerns and a recovery in global risk appetite, prompting investors to withdraw from safe-haven assets like gold and silver [2] - The adjustment in margin requirements for silver and gold futures by exchanges has forced some long positions to reduce their holdings, contributing to the price drop [2][3] Investor Sentiment - There is a divide in investor sentiment, with some taking profits after the recent surge while others view the price drop as an opportunity to buy [5][6] - Long-term investors continue to accumulate gold, as evidenced by increased holdings in SPDR Gold ETF and iShares Silver ETF, indicating a positive outlook for precious metals despite short-term volatility [8] Supply and Demand Factors - The overall inventory of gold and silver is tightening, with significant reductions in COMEX silver inventory and a slight increase in SHFE gold inventory, reflecting ongoing demand [8] - The World Gold Council noted that central banks have shown a tendency to buy on dips, suggesting sustained interest in gold as a strategic asset [8] Risk Management - Exchanges and banks have issued warnings regarding market volatility, advising investors to manage risks and maintain rational investment strategies amid fluctuating gold prices [9][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that while short-term uncertainties regarding tariffs exist, precious metals are expected to trend upwards in the long term due to factors such as the weakening of the dollar credit system and ongoing central bank gold purchases [1] - Short-term fluctuations in precious metal prices are influenced by rising risk aversion, but long-term demand for gold is supported by central banks, particularly as China's gold reserves are significantly below the global average [1] - The current environment of anticipated interest rate cuts, concerns about the U.S. economy, and the weakening dollar credit system are all favorable for precious metals [1] Group 2 - Investors are advised to avoid short-term high-risk investments and focus on the medium to long-term value of precious metals [1] - Recommended investment options include a gold ETF that directly invests in physical gold with a scale exceeding 26 billion and a gold stock ETF that covers the entire gold industry chain [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are expected to be bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; treasury bonds should be kept under observation [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range - bound trading; glass is advised to be observed [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs; aluminum is advised to lay out long positions on dips after pullbacks; nickel is suggested to be observed or shorted on highs; tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range - bound trading [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to oscillate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations; the 01 contract of soda ash should be traded with a short - selling mindset [1]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, and PTA are expected to oscillate; apples and jujubes are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs and eggs are recommended to be shorted on highs; corn is expected to have wide - range oscillations; soybean meal is expected to have range - bound oscillations; oils are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as macroeconomic data, industry events, supply - demand relationships, and international policies. For example, in the macro - financial sector, important meetings and potential Fed rate cuts support the stock market, while in the bond market, the outcome of Sino - US negotiations is crucial. In the black building materials sector, supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal, rebar, etc. Each sector's analysis is based on a combination of multiple factors to guide investment decisions [5][7][8]. Summaries by Categories Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: Last week, A - share broad - based indices all had negative weekly returns, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices having the largest declines. This week, the release of macro - economic data and important events will affect the market. With the approaching of important meetings and the potential Fed rate cuts, the market is expected to be supported. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Interest - rate bond yields declined across all tenors and varieties, and credit - bond yields also decreased. Overseas credit risks led to a decline in risk appetite, but the compound negative factors in the bond market have not been fundamentally resolved. It is advisable to take partial profits during risk - event shocks. The Sino - US negotiations at the end of the month will be the key to determining market risk appetite [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: During the National Day, supply was temporarily halted and is expected to gradually recover after the holiday. The supply recovery is relatively slow, and coking coal has long - position value. After the holiday, the first round of coke price increases started, supported by steel mills' demand [7][8]. - **Rebar**: Last Friday, rebar futures prices oscillated. The fundamental situation shows that the price is undervalued, and with the improvement of demand and the decline of production, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long around 3000 for the RB2601 contract [8]. - **Glass**: After the National Day, environmental protection and macro - policy expectations cooled down, and the market returned to the fundamental logic. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to observe and wait for a reversal to consider going long [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated greatly due to trade - related news. Although the price increase suppresses demand, the demand in the fourth quarter has room for improvement. The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs [11]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite in Guinea decreased, and the operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum changed. The demand in the peak season is weak, but the inventory of aluminum ingots is decreasing well. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips [13]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore is firm, but the supply may become looser. Refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron has limited upside. It is recommended to observe or short on highs [18]. - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production decreased in September, and the supply is expected to be more relaxed in the fourth quarter. The downstream consumption is weak, and it is recommended for range - bound trading [18]. - **Silver and Gold**: Due to the delay of the US PPI data and the risk of government shutdown, the safe - haven sentiment increased. With the expectation of rate cuts and concerns about the US economy, the prices of silver and gold are expected to be supported. It is recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after sufficient pullbacks [19][20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed in the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are new maintenance plans in the short - term supply, and the demand is increasing. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed for the pressure at 2450 [23][24]. - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the inventory is high, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate, and the range of 6400 - 6700 is to be observed [24][25]. - **Rubber**: Overseas weather improvement pressures the raw material price, but the reduction of rubber arrivals supports the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the support at 14500 is to be observed [26][27]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, and factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies should be focused on [28]. - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is increasing, and the inventory is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate [30]. - **Polyolefins**: The cost is affected by macro factors, the supply has an increasing expectation, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the L2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6800, and the PP2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6500 [30][31]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot trading is light, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply is in excess. The 01 contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the recent increase in seed cotton prices has led to a situation of grabbing cotton. However, due to the uncertainty between China and the US, the outlook is bearish [35]. - **PTA**: The international oil price is affected by geopolitical factors, the PTA spot price is low, and the supply - demand situation leads to a slowdown in inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 4350 - 4600 [34][35]. - **Apples**: The price of late - maturing Fuji apples shows a polarization, and good - quality apples are in high demand. The expected output this year is stable, but the quality has declined, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [36][37]. - **Jujubes**: The new - season jujubes in Xinjiang are about to be harvested, and the ordering progress in different regions varies. The market is in a state of waiting and seeing, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [37]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The supply in October is increasing, the weight of pigs is relatively high, and the entry of secondary fattening has weakened recently. In the medium to long term, the supply will remain high before the first half of next year. It is recommended to adjust short positions according to different contracts [39][40][41]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price is supported by improved storage conditions and increased procurement, but the post - holiday demand is weak. In the medium to long term, the supply growth rate is slowing down, but the capacity clearance still takes time. It is recommended to take partial profits on short positions and wait for spot guidance [42][43][44]. - **Corn**: Currently, it is the transition period between old and new crops. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the price is under seasonal pressure. In the medium to long term, the cost has support, and the demand is moderately weak. The 11 - contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is under pressure from harvest and slow exports, and the domestic soybean meal is affected by import expectations. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at 2900 for the M2601 contract [45][46]. - **Oils**: In the short term, the callback of oils is limited. The 01 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil should pay attention to the support levels of 8150 - 8200, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 respectively. It is recommended to go long after the callback [47][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the delayed release of the US September PPI data, the risk of a US government shutdown driving up避险情绪, the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions, and the tightness of London silver spot, precious metal prices continued to rise. With market divergence on the annual interest - rate cut amplitude and a downward - adjusted expected end - point of this round of interest - rate cuts, and under the support of interest - rate cut expectations and避险情绪, precious metal prices are expected to remain supported. It is recommended to pay attention to the US September CPI data released this week [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Affected by factors such as the delayed release of the US September PPI data, the risk of a US government shutdown driving up避险情绪, and the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions, the price of US gold continued to be strong, closing at $4,268 per ounce last Friday, up 5.8% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4,400, and the lower support level is $4,100 [6]. - Similarly, due to the above factors and the tightness of London silver spot, the price of US silver continued to be strong, with a weekly increase of 6.5%, closing at $50.6 per ounce. The lower support level is $48.5, and the upper resistance level is $52 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - With the delayed release of the US September PPI data, the risk of a US government shutdown driving up避险情绪, and the tightness of London silver spot, precious metal prices continued to rise. The market has a divergence on the annual interest - rate cut amplitude, and the expected end - point of this round of interest - rate cuts is lower than before. Fed meeting minutes show that most officials think further policy relaxation this year may be appropriate. Trump's influence on the Fed's independence is evident, and the US employment situation is slowing down. Powell said that changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, and the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is unlikely to be sustained. With the US economic data trending weaker, and market concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence, precious metal prices are expected to be supported under the interest - rate cut expectations and避险情绪. It is recommended to pay attention to the US September CPI data released this week [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators No specific analysis content provided, only some data charts such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, and bond yields are presented. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The Eurozone October ZEW economic sentiment index was 22.7, down from the previous value of 26.1 [25]. - The US October Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was - 12.8, far lower than the expected 9 and the previous value of 23.2 [25]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - Fed Governor Milan said that the resurgence of Sino - US trade tensions has brought new downward risks to the economic outlook, making it more important for the Fed to cut the target interest rate. He believes it is more urgent to take a more neutral policy stance [26]. 3.6 Inventory - For gold, this week, the COMEX inventory decreased by 25,926.98 kg to 1,216,367.63 kg, while the SHFE inventory increased by 13,878 kg to 84,606 kg [13]. - For silver, this week, the COMEX inventory decreased by 404,484.72 kg to 15,845,968 kg, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 248,958 kg to 920,103 kg [13]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of September 23, the CFTC speculative fund net long position in gold was 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts from last week [13]. - As of September 23, the CFTC speculative fund net long position in silver was 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts from last week [13]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Tuesday (October 20), at 20:30, the US September non - farm payrolls change seasonally adjusted and the US September unemployment rate will be released [37]. - On Friday (October 24), at 20:30, the US September CPI annual rate unadjusted will be released [37].

Global Economic Outlook - The IMF projects global economic growth of 3.2% in 2025, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from July's forecast[4] - The U.S. economy is expected to grow by 2.0% in 2025, while the Eurozone is projected to grow by 1.2%[4] - The rise in U.S. tariffs is identified as a major source of global uncertainty, impacting economic stability[4] U.S. Economic Policies - The U.S. government shutdown continues, with potential layoffs of over 10,000 federal employees and a freeze on approximately $11 billion in infrastructure project funding[5] - New tariffs of 25% on imported medium and heavy trucks and parts will take effect on November 1[5] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October has risen to 100%[7] Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed moderate gains: S&P 500 up 1.7%, Dow Jones up 1.6%, and Nasdaq up 2.1%[17] - European stocks also saw slight increases, with the STOXX 600 index rising by 0.4%[17] - In contrast, Asian markets faced declines, with the Nikkei 225 down 1.1% and the Hang Seng Index down 4.0%[17] Commodity Prices - Gold prices surged by 6.3%, reaching $4224.8 per ounce, driven by increased safe-haven demand amid market uncertainties[24] - Oil prices continued to decline, with Brent and WTI crude down 2.3% each, settling at $61.3 and $57.5 per barrel respectively[24] Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.27%, closing at 98.56, while the euro and pound appreciated against the dollar[26][27] - The Chinese yuan experienced a slight decline of 0.05% against the dollar, closing at 7.1265[27]

Group 1 - The overall sentiment from Federal Reserve officials, including Powell, remains dovish, with indications of considering an end to balance sheet reduction and reinforcing market expectations for an interest rate cut in October [2][6] - Risk assets experienced a rebound initially, but concerns over issues in the U.S. banking system led to a decline in market risk appetite, causing a pullback in U.S. stocks and negatively impacting copper prices [2][6] - Gold and silver prices saw significant increases, with COMEX gold rising by 5.76% and silver by 6.55%, while copper prices fluctuated, with COMEX copper increasing by 3.15% and then decreasing by 1.77% [4][6] Group 2 - The copper market is experiencing a lack of clear direction, with traditional peak season nearing its end and no significant improvement in consumption observed, partly due to previously high copper prices suppressing downstream purchasing demand [10][11] - COMEX copper inventories have increased significantly, surpassing 340,000 tons, with a notable rise in delivery volumes, indicating potential supply pressures in the future [11][12] - The domestic market for electrolytic copper is seeing rising inventories, with a total of 183,100 tons, reflecting limited downstream demand and ongoing inventory accumulation [21][24] Group 3 - The precious metals market saw strong upward movement, with gold prices experiencing a significant rise due to heightened safe-haven demand amid concerns over credit risks in the banking sector, followed by a correction as trade tensions appeared to ease [27][28] - COMEX gold inventory decreased by approximately 830,000 ounces, while silver inventory saw a reduction of about 1.3 million ounces, indicating shifts in market dynamics [40][41] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 30.1 tons, reflecting growing investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [46]

Market Overview - The market experienced a decline with shrinking trading volume, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors as they await clarity on trade policies [2][12][15] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.95%, closing at 3839.76 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index saw declines of 3.04% and 3.36% respectively [6][7] - The decline was attributed to several factors, including a drop in trading volume below 2 trillion yuan for two consecutive days, concerns over the performance of the technology sector amidst the earnings season, and uncertainties related to tariff negotiations [2][12][15] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as banking and public utilities showed strength, while technology stocks faced significant selling pressure [3][8] - The precious metals sector saw a notable increase due to rising international gold prices, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [9][10] - Coal stocks also performed well, supported by anticipated improvements in economic conditions and potential policy measures in the fourth quarter [10] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a dual approach, focusing on defensive assets in the short term while positioning for growth in sectors like AI, semiconductors, and robotics in the medium term [3][13] - Emphasis is placed on selecting stocks with solid earnings or future earnings potential, while avoiding technology stocks that have risen significantly without performance support [3][13] - There is a recommendation to monitor cyclical sectors and consumer demand for potential rebounds, particularly in undervalued core assets or blue-chip stocks [3][13]

Core Viewpoint - The current gold bull market, driven by both safe-haven demand and speculative fervor, may be at a critical turning point as evidenced by recent price volatility and market sentiment [1][4][5]. Price Movements - On October 17, gold prices approached $4,380, setting a new historical record, but subsequently fell over 2% during the day, marking the largest single-day drop since Thanksgiving 2024 [1]. - Despite the drop, gold prices increased nearly 5% for the week, marking the best weekly performance since May and the tenth consecutive week of gains [2]. Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - Bill Gross, a notable investor, warned that gold has become a "momentum/meme asset," suggesting potential buyers should wait [5]. - Technical indicators and market sentiment are signaling that the gold market is overcrowded, with a significant divergence from traditional fundamental drivers [5][6]. - The current price is significantly deviating from technical benchmarks, with the 21-day moving average around $3,950 and the 50-day moving average at $3,675 [7]. Volatility and Institutional Positions - The Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) has surged, indicating extreme market conditions driven by panic buying, which could lead to intensified price corrections if sentiment shifts [11]. - Institutional positions in gold are at extreme levels, with commodity trading advisors (CTAs) holding maximum long positions, suggesting that any price reversal could trigger automated sell-offs [15][18]. Divergence from Traditional Drivers - The current gold bull market is characterized by a divergence from traditional drivers such as inflation hedging and interest rate expectations, raising concerns among analysts [20][25]. - Gold prices have been rising alongside risk assets, which is unusual, and there is a notable disconnect between gold prices and real interest rates [22][23]. - The recent strength of the U.S. dollar has not negatively impacted gold prices as expected, leading to confusion among traditional model-based investors [28]. Diverging Opinions on Market Outlook - There is a growing debate among analysts regarding whether the current market conditions represent a bubble or a new paradigm, with some warning of potential challenges if interest rate expectations rise [30][31]. - Conversely, bullish analysts argue that strong physical demand can explain the disconnect between gold prices and interest rates, suggesting that investors should buy on dips [32]. - Factors such as expanding fiscal deficits and rising debt levels are expected to continue supporting gold prices, with some analysts emphasizing the need for strategic caution regarding gold investments [33].