化工日报 | 2025-12-02 青岛港口库存环比继续回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15250元/吨，较前一日变动-160元/吨；NR主力合约12170元/吨，较前一日变动-105 元/吨；BR主力合约10310元/吨，较前一日变动-105元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14850元/吨，较前一日变动-150元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14550元/吨，较前一 日变动-130元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1835美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1725 美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10400元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价10250元/吨，较前一日变动-100元/吨。 市场资讯 据中国海关总署11月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%；出口 金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨，同比增长3.6%；出口金额为1348 亿元，同比增长2.6%。按条数计算，出口量达58,664万条，同比增 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral. Short - term expected to continue range - bound. Long - term optimistic after seasonal pressure [2] - Sugar: Neutral. Short - term may have limited further decline and weak rebound. Long - term not optimistic [4] - Pulp: Neutral. Short - term hard to break away from the bottom. Long - term price center may rise [7] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of cotton, sugar, and pulp, including price changes, supply - demand situations, and provides corresponding investment strategies based on short - term and long - term perspectives [1][2][4] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13765 yuan/ton yesterday, up 40 yuan/ton (+0.29%) [1] - Spot: 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 14763 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; national average price was 14936 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [1] - As of Oct 16, 2025, US cumulative net export contracts of 2025/26 cotton were 110.6 tons (41.66% of annual expected exports), with 35.6 tons shipped (32.16% shipping rate). China's cumulative contracts were 3.1 tons, and 0.6 tons were shipped [1] Market Analysis - International: USDA raised 2025/26 global cotton production significantly but only slightly increased consumption, resulting in higher ending stocks. US cotton production increased due to higher yield, with increased sales pressure [1] - Domestic: 2025/26 domestic cotton is expected to increase. Xinjiang's cotton output is expected to be 730 - 750 tons. Short - term supply is abundant, and Zhengzhou cotton is suppressed by hedging. Demand is weak, but profit and inventory do not form negative feedback [1] Strategy - Short - term: Range - bound. Long - term: optimistic after seasonal pressure due to increased domestic cotton consumption and low import volume expectations [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5405 yuan/ton yesterday, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.09%) [2] - Spot: Guangxi Nanning's sugar price was 5470 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Yunnan Kunming's was 5425 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [2] - Thailand's 2025/26 cane base price is 890 Thai baht/ton (196.78 yuan/ton), with a floating standard of 53.40 Thai baht/CCS point (11.81 yuan/ton) [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazil's strong supply and India's expected production rebound suppress the market. Short - term decline may be limited, and long - term rebound is restricted [4] - Zhengzhou sugar: Higher - than - expected imports and new sugar factory openings increase short - term supply pressure [4] Strategy - Short - term: May have limited decline and weak rebound due to low valuation and sugar mills' price - holding. Long - term: not optimistic [4] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: Pulp 2601 contract closed at 5190 yuan/ton yesterday, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%) [4] - Spot: Shandong's Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp price was 5375 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; Russian softwood pulp was 4910 yuan/ton (unchanged) [4] - Imported wood pulp prices showed different trends, with some rising and some stable. Traders had惜售 sentiment, and downstream demand was not strong [5] Market Analysis - Supply: 2025 - 2026 overseas new capacity is limited, and some mills plan to cut production. European demand may increase, reducing China's import pressure. However, domestic new capacity may bring more supply [6] - Demand: Although there is new paper capacity, terminal demand is insufficient, and inventory is high. But expanding capacity will increase pulp demand [6] Strategy - Short - term: Hard to break away from the bottom. Long - term: price center may rise, and waiting for bottom - building to buy is recommended [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower on December 1 due to lack of soybean sales to China, and the market is still skeptical about China's purchase of 12 million tons of soybeans by the end of 2025. The slowdown in US soybean sales to China remains a focus. Competition from South America is also a concern, although StoneX has slightly lowered its forecast for Brazil's soybean production, which is still expected to reach a record high if achieved [3]. - The spot price of DCE bean - one is stable with a slight upward trend, supporting the futures price. DCE bean - meal futures are in an adjustment and oscillation state [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Prices**: DCE bean - one 2601 closed at 4126 yuan/ton during the day session, up 11 yuan (+0.27%), and 4141 yuan/ton at night, up 23 yuan (+0.56%); DCE bean - meal 2601 closed at 3039 yuan/ton during the day session, down 11 yuan (-0.36%), and 3040 yuan/ton at night, down 4 yuan (-0.13%); CBOT soybean 01 closed at 1127.25 cents per bushel, down 10 cents (-0.88%); CBOT bean - meal 01 closed at 314.5 dollars per short ton, down 4.1 dollars (-1.29%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In various regions, the spot price of bean - meal (43%) ranges from 3000 - 3140 yuan/ton, with price changes of - 20 to +10 yuan compared to the previous day. The spot basis and forward basis have different levels in different months and regions [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of bean - meal was 6.55 million tons per day, compared to 5.85 million tons the day before. The inventory data for the previous week was 105.65 million tons, and the data for the previous week was not available [1]. [Macro and Industry News] - On December 1, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to lack of sales to China. The market doubts China's purchase plan. South American competition is a concern, and StoneX has lowered its forecast for Brazil's soybean production to 177.2 million tons, while AgRural estimates that as of November 27, 89% of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting has been completed, slightly lower than the same period last year [3]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of bean - meal and bean - one is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main - contract futures prices on the reporting day [3].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Investment rating for the pig and egg sectors: Cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Core Views - Pig market: Pig price decline has led to the continuous accumulation of frozen product inventory, affecting the growth of slaughter volume. This year's pickling demand is slightly lower than expected, and the end - of - year demand may have limited support for pig prices. With a lack of strong support on the demand side, the current large supply pressure has a more prominent suppressing effect on short - term pig prices [2] - Egg market: Although the capacity reduction has started, the inventory of laying hens in production remains high, and the short - term supply pressure is difficult to be substantially alleviated. Under the background of high supply, the demand side has limited support for egg prices, and the price increase space is expected to be relatively limited [4] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Pig - Futures: The closing price of the live hog 2601 contract yesterday was 11,495 yuan/ton, a change of +30.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a change of +0.26% [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live hogs was 11.42 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 11.64 yuan/kg, a change of +0.09 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 11.50 yuan/kg, a change of +0.05 yuan/kg [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices: On December 1, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 127.53, up 1.04 points from last Friday. The "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 129.96, up 1.20 points from last Friday. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 17.80 yuan/kg, down 0.2% from last Friday; beef was 66.58 yuan/kg, up 0.1%; mutton was 63.40 yuan/kg, up 0.4%; eggs were 7.33 yuan/kg, down 0.3%; white - striped chickens were 17.89 yuan/kg, up 1.8% [1] Egg - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2601 contract yesterday was 3201 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of - 92.00 yuan from the previous trading day, a change of - 2.79% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.96 yuan/jin, a change of +0.14 from the previous trading day; in Shandong, it was 3.20 yuan/jin, a change of +0.10; in Hebei, it was 2.71 yuan/jin, a change of +0.02 [3] - Inventory: On December 1, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.03 days from yesterday, a decrease of 3.16%. The circulation - link inventory was 1.19 days, unchanged from yesterday [3]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol is "Short - term bullish" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short - term, methanol rebounded from a low level and is expected to run strongly. In the medium - term, the high supply pressure of the 01 - contract methanol in China is the main contradiction, and the price upside in December may be limited. In 2026, the overall fundamental situation of methanol may improve in the first quarter. The MTO fundamental is weak, and the production profit is continuously compressed. The fundamental pressure level is currently at 2,150 - 2,200 yuan/ton. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based plants in Henan, which is around 2,000 - 2,050 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. [Fundamental Tracking] - In the futures market, the closing price of the methanol main contract was 2,136 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,121 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the trading volume was 1,027,056 lots, up 83,284 lots; the open interest of the 01 - contract was 1,003,722 lots, down 45,066 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 3,800 tons, unchanged; the trading volume was 2.178178 billion yuan, up 0.171558 billion yuan; the basis was - 18, up 7; the spread between MA01 and MA05 was - 96, down 12. In the spot market, the Inner Mongolia price was 1,970 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the northern Shaanxi price was 1,955 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the Shandong price was 2,180 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] 2. [Spot News] - The methanol spot price index was 2,065.15, up 4.37. Among them, the Taicang spot price was 2,118, up 8, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1,995, up 2.5. Among the 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 10 cities saw varying degrees of price increases, with increases ranging from 2.5 to 55 yuan/ton. As of November 26, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.3635 million tons, a decrease of 0.1158 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 7.83%. The overall unloading of foreign vessels was lower than expected, and the visible unloading during the period was only 152,000 tons [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Market sentiment is cautious, and both glass and soda ash are expected to oscillate. Glass needs long - term losses for capacity clearance, and soda ash prices are restricted by potential float glass cold - repairs [1][2]. - **Silicon Manganese and Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Both are expected to show an oscillatory trend. Silicon manganese prices will follow the sector's fluctuations, and silicon ferrosilicon prices will be weakly correlated with the sector in the short - term due to high inventory [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Market Analysis**: Futures oscillated downward with reduced positions. Spot prices were stable regionally, and downstream demand was mainly for immediate needs. Supply contraction was insufficient, and high inventory persisted. Attention should be paid to cold - repairs and macro policies [1]. - **Soda Ash Market Analysis**: Futures oscillated with varying performance among contracts. Light soda ash consumption was better than heavy soda ash, and downstream demand was for immediate needs. Supply - demand contradictions were slightly alleviated, but inventory remained high. Heavy soda ash demand may face challenges due to potential float glass cold - repairs [1]. - **Strategies**: Glass and soda ash are expected to oscillate, with no specific cross - period or cross - variety strategies provided [2]. Silicon Manganese and Silicon Ferrosilicon - **Silicon Manganese Market Analysis**: Based on steel consumption data, building material consumption was fair. Futures rebounded strongly with the black market. Spot prices were firm, but production and operating rates continued to decline due to losses. Inventory reached a new high, and port manganese ore inventory increased slightly, providing cost support. Prices will follow the sector's fluctuations, and attention should be paid to basis, manganese ore cost, and production changes [3]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon Market Analysis**: Futures rebounded with the black market. Spot prices were weakly stable with average trading volume. High production and inventory persisted, demand weakened marginally, and although inventory decreased slightly due to reduced operating rates, high inventory will continue to suppress prices. Attention should be paid to cost factors and regional policies [3][4]. - **Strategies**: Both silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. Core Views - The steel market is influenced by macro - expectations, with steel prices fluctuating within a range. The consumption stability of finished products needs further observation, and attention should be paid to macro - policy implementation, weather, demand, and winter stockpiling [1]. - The iron ore market has a growing supply - demand contradiction with rising inventory. Some inventory is locked, keeping prices high. As steel mills cut production and iron - water output is expected to decline seasonally, the market may face pressure if inventory is released [3]. - The coking coal and coke (double - coking) market is running in a volatile manner. The market sentiment is cautious. For coking coal, domestic inventory is accumulating, and the implementation of supply - guarantee policies needs attention. For coke, the first price cut has been implemented, and demand is weakening [5][6]. - The thermal coal market is experiencing weak prices. Downstream consumption is lower than expected, and inventory is relatively high. Long - term supply pattern changes and non - power coal consumption and restocking should be monitored [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the rebar futures main contract was 3,134 yuan/ton, and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,327 yuan/ton. Spot steel transactions were generally good, mainly for speculation and futures - spot trading, while rigid demand was average. Rebar prices in some regions were supported by mills. The national building materials trading volume was 124,959 [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Finished product output increased slightly, inventory decline slowed, and consumption stability needs further observation. Plate inventory still exists, and its industrial - property consumption is expected to be better than that of finished products. With futures contract roll - over and positive macro - policies, market expectations remain. Attention should be paid to macro - policy implementation, weather, demand, and winter stockpiling [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices rose slightly, and spot prices were generally weak and stable with mediocre transactions. The total iron ore trading volume at major ports was 964,000 tons, a 11.32% increase from the previous day [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, with rising total inventory. Some inventory is locked due to non - market factors, keeping prices high. As steel mills cut production and iron - water output is expected to decline seasonally, the market may face pressure if inventory is released. Attention should be paid to subsequent negotiation progress [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and options trading [4]. Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) - **Market Analysis**: Driven by improved market sentiment, double - coking futures prices rebounded and showed a volatile trend. For imported Mongolian coal, the customs clearance volume remained high, traders were cautious, and the market was quiet with falling port prices [5]. - **Logic and Views**: For coking coal, domestic inventory is accumulating, and the implementation of supply - guarantee policies needs attention. For coke, the first price cut has been implemented, market divergence on future prices has increased, and demand is weakening [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for both coking coal and coke is to expect a volatile market, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are weakening, and the market is pessimistic. Downstream buyers mainly rely on long - term contracts. Some mines have inventory backlogs and fewer trucks for coal transportation. At ports, the market sentiment is weak, downstream demand is cold, and inventory is rising. Import coal tender prices are falling, and traders are cautious [7]. - **Demand and Logic**: Recently, coal prices have been weak due to lower - than - expected downstream consumption and high inventory. In the long term, supply pattern changes, non - power coal consumption, and restocking should be monitored [7]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is provided [7].

2025 年 12 月 02 日 国 泰 君 安 期 工业硅：震荡偏弱 多晶硅：交易所限制开仓，情绪降温，盘面或 有大跌风险 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 期货研究 商 品 研 究 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2601收盘价（元/吨） | 9,145 | 15 | 205 | -10 | | | | Si2601成交量（手） | 216,787 | 18,896 | 2,775 | -104,204 | | | | Si2601持仓量（手） | 203,274 | -8,525 | -59,402 | -24,490 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2601收盘价（元/吨） | 57,705 | 1,280 | 4,390 | - | | | | PS2601成交量（手） | 338,696 | 157,433 | 150,820 | - | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: "Soda Ash, Glass Daily Report" [1] - Date: December 2, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - Soda Ash: The current weak supply - demand imbalance in the soda ash market has marginally eased but not fundamentally changed. In the short term, it will likely maintain a bottom - grinding and oscillating trend. In the medium - to - long - term, if there is a phased price rebound, a strategy of selling on rebounds can be adopted [9]. - Glass: The glass market is currently weaker than expected, with prices in a low - level oscillation pattern. In the short term, it will likely continue this trend. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production line cold repairs and changes in real estate demand [11]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On December 1, the main soda ash futures contract SA601 oscillated weakly, closing at 1176 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.50%, with a daily reduction of 24,299 lots [8]. - Supply is decreasing, with this week's production falling below 700,000 tons and the capacity utilization rate down 2.60% week - on - week. Demand is weak, with total shipments down 3.65% week - on - week. Inventory decreased 1.75% week - on - week [9]. Glass - The glass market is weaker than expected, with prices in a low - level oscillation. Spot prices do not support the market, and the supply reduction from the concentrated production line shutdown in the Shahe area did not meet expectations [10][11]. - Supply is stable, and inventory pressure is high. Demand is weak, especially in the real estate market. However, due to low profits, about 5,000 tons of production lines are expected to undergo cold repairs by the end of the year [11]. Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides data on soda ash and glass futures trading on December 1, including opening price, high price, low price, closing price, change, change rate, open interest, and open interest change [7]. - It also includes figures related to soda ash and glass, such as price trends, weekly production, enterprise inventory, market price, and flat glass production [13][18][20]

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周一夜盘主力合约期货价格上涨 | 40 | 元至 | 2161 | 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价格上 | | | | | | | | | | 涨 | 8 | 元至 | 2118 | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 | 32099 | 手至 | 60.28 | 万手，空头持仓 | 减少 | 28993 | 手至 | 70.9 | 万手。 | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 | 89.1%，环比+0.37%。海外甲醇开工率 | 66.9%，环比 | | | | | | | | | | | | -5.8%。 | 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 | 136.35 | 万吨，减少 | 11.58 | 万 ...