Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions for various commodities, including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products. It also presents important fundamental information such as weather conditions in major crop - producing regions, international and domestic supply - demand situations, and relevant economic and policy news. These factors collectively influence the market trends of the commodities [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - **Commodity Futures**: The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various commodity futures are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD March palm oil is 4035.00, with a previous - day decline of 0.02%. Brent March crude oil on ICE closed at 61.84, down 0.13% from the previous day and 0.23% overnight [1]. - **Currency Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates and their percentage changes are given. The US dollar index is at 97.95, up 0.01%. The CNY/USD exchange rate is 7.0471, down 0.07% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - **Futures - Spot Price Relationship**: The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2605, DCE豆油 2605, and DCE豆粕 2605 in different regions are provided. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2605 in North China is 8600, with a basis of 90 and a basis change of - 20 [2]. - **Imported Soybean Quotes**: The CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different regions are presented. The CNF premium for Brazilian soybeans is 150 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 446 dollars per ton [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Conditions in Producing Areas** - **Brazil**: Weather conditions in most soybean - producing areas are generally favorable for crops, although some regions may face flood risks, and a lack of rainfall in certain areas is a concern [4]. - **Argentina**: Soil moisture in most soybean - producing areas is suitable for soybean growth, and upcoming fronts will bring precipitation [4]. - **International Supply - Demand** - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44%. Indonesia's actions against illegal palm oil enterprises may disrupt production and increase global prices [6]. - **Soybeans**: Argentina's soybean sales data for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are reported, along with the procurement by local oil mills and the export industry [8]. - **Freight Index**: The Baltic Dry Index decreased slightly but had the largest annual increase since 2016. Different types of ships' freight indices and daily earnings changes are provided [9]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand** - **Oil and Meal**: On December 24, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, while the trading volume of soybean meal increased. The national average oil - mill operating rate rose [11]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased. The average prices of pork and eggs also declined [11]. - **International Economic Data** - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January and March 2026 is presented [12]. - **Unemployment and Mortgage Rates**: The US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 were 21.4 million, lower than expected. The 30 - year fixed - mortgage rate decreased [12]. - **Data Release Delay**: Due to the US federal government holiday, the release of EIA's crude oil and natural gas inventory data was postponed [12]. - **Domestic News** - **Exchange Rate**: On December 24, the USD/CNY exchange rate decreased, indicating RMB appreciation [14]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank carried out 260 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 24, resulting in a net withdrawal of 208 billion yuan. On December 25, it will conduct 4000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations [14]. 3.4 Fund Flows On December 24, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 205.42 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 63.14 billion yuan, with different sub - sectors having different net inflow/outflow situations. Stock index futures had a net inflow of 141.68 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 0.86 billion yuan [17]. 3.5 Arbitrage Tracking There is no specific content provided in the report for this section.

金 信 期 货 纸 业 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/12 /25 品种聚焦 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO. ， LTD 废纸箱基本面分析 基本情况 价格：12月25日，废纸收购价格整体以上涨为主，华北、华中、华东等地多家纸厂上调了价格，涨价30 元-70元不等。 供需：到货量尚可，部分纸厂上调收购价。下游纸厂采购仍偏谨慎，多按需补库。 库存：纸厂原料库存处于中位，打包站库存低位，产业链库存结构分化。 利润：打包站利润被挤压，纸厂原料成本下行但成品跌价，利润仍承压。 核心结论：短期受龙头纸厂提价带动止跌反弹，但下游需求未实质改善，持续性有待观察。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 热点聚焦 品种聚焦 废纸现货价格 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：同花顺iFinD、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO. ， LTD 品种聚焦 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO. ， LTD 箱板纸基本面分析 建议：成本下跌与自身高库存导致价格走弱。虽计划涨价，但 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, the price of the apple futures AP2605 contract is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The current trading atmosphere in the apple sales area is light, the New Year's Day holiday stocking has not brought obvious improvement, the terminal sales speed is slower than the same period last year, and second and third - level wholesalers are less enthusiastic about purchasing due to high apple prices. Technically, the AP2605 contract showed a bullish trend on the day, with bulls taking the initiative in the short - term [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On December 23, 2025, the apple AP2605 futures contract fluctuated upwards, closing at 9230 points, a 0.49% increase from the previous day. The daily trading volume was 93,740 lots, and the open interest was 144,841 lots, a decrease of 3,937 lots from the previous trading day [2]. - **Variety Price**: All apple futures contracts rose on the day. The trading volume was 99,112 lots, and the total open interest of the variety was 168,460 lots, a decrease of 4,885 lots from the previous trading day [4]. - **Associated Market**: The apple options had a total trading volume of 6,247 lots and a total open interest of 31,782 lots, an increase of 630 lots. The total number of exercises on the day was 0 lots [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: The current spot price of apples is 8,200 yuan/ton, the futures settlement price is 9,209 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 1,009 yuan/ton [7]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: According to the warehouse receipt daily report of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the number of registered warehouse receipts today is 0 lots [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: As Christmas approaches, the market for late - harvested Fuji apples in storage remains stable. The stocking atmosphere in the production areas is not strong, the sales of farmers' apples are weak, and merchants are gradually packaging and shipping their own inventory [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily K - line of the AP2605 contract on the day showed a positive line, with an overall trend of opening high and moving higher. After closing with a negative line the previous day, the positive line on the day directly covered the previous day's negative line entity, indicating that the bulls took the initiative in the intraday game [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX: Trend is strongly positive [1] - PTA: Cost support is strongly positive [1] - MEG: Valuation rebounds from the bottom, but there is still pressure in the medium term [1] Core Viewpoints - PX: The unilateral price trend is strongly positive and squeezes downstream profits. Pay attention to the long PX and short PF/PR/BZ/EB positions, and the 5 - 9 calendar spread positive arbitrage. Despite polyester factory production cuts, the tight PX supply expectation cannot be falsified in the short - term [9]. - PTA: Cost support is strong, the unilateral trend is upward, with positive arbitrage. Go long PTA and short PF/PR/MEG/BZ/EB. Tight PX supply supports the cost and continues to squeeze downstream profits [9]. - MEG: Affected by the news of a 720,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan planning to shut down next month, the ethylene glycol market rose, with short - covering accelerating the increase. The shutdown is expected to reduce mainland imports by 40,000 - 50,000 tons per month. Current MEG valuation is low, causing domestic plants to enter the loss zone and some to consider reducing production. However, high port inventories and polyester production cut expectations limit the upside [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures**: PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had closing prices of 7,294, 5,094, 3,818, 6,484, and 444.7 respectively yesterday. The price changes were - 8, 12, 195, 32, and 3.8, with percentage changes of - 0.11%, 0.24%, 5.38%, 0.50%, and 0.86% respectively [2]. - **Calendar Spreads**: PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, MEG1 - 5, PF12 - 1, and SC11 - 12 had closing prices of - 82, - 66, - 152, - 54, and - 0.3 respectively yesterday. The price changes were - 16, 2, - 33, 16, and - 1.2 respectively [2]. - **Spot**: PX CFR China was 901 dollars/ton, PTA in East China was 5,018 yuan/ton, MEG spot was 3,598 yuan/ton, naphtha MOPJ was 540.25 dollars/ton, and Dated Brent was 63.52 dollars/barrel yesterday. The price changes were 5, 63, 76, - 2, and 0.45 respectively [2]. - **Spot Processing Margins**: PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing margin, short - fiber processing margin, bottle - chip processing margin, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread were 335.45, 150.47, 221.69, 40.59, and - 4.23 respectively yesterday. The price changes were 30.34, - 28.15, - 24.11, - 61.21, and 0.11 respectively [2]. Market Dynamics - **PX**: A 200,000 - ton PX plant in Japan is currently restarting after a shutdown in mid - September. A 700,000 - ton PX plant in the Northeast plans to restart this weekend, with capacity expected to expand to 1 million tons after restart. A 390,000 - ton PX plant in North China is shut down, and the restart time is undetermined [2]. - **PTA**: In November, China's PTA exports increased by about 61% compared to October, with a significant increase in Indian buyers' interest. India bought 69,802 tons of PTA in November, more than five times the amount in October. Vietnam's imports increased slightly to 34,120 tons in November. Egypt's imports also increased by about 53% to 92,052 tons [5]. - **MEG**: From December 22 to December 28, the expected arrivals at Zhangjiagang, Taicang, and Ningbo are about 15,000 tons, 89,000 tons, and 14,000 tons respectively. Two MEG plants in Taiwan with a total capacity of 720,000 tons/year plan to shut down next month, and the restart time is undetermined. An Iranian 500,000 - ton/year MEG plant has restarted recently [6]. - **Polyester**: The total planned production cuts of three major polyester filament manufacturers are about 2.494 million tons, including 1.61 million tons of POY and 883,000 tons of FDY. A 200,000 - ton polyester plant in Tongxiang has shut down, and the restart time is undetermined. On December 24, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were highly differentiated, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 80%. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on December 24 was generally weak, with an average of about 40% [6][7]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [8]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.1万吨，环比增长8.00%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1384元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为69.79%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.23万吨，处于高位，进口利润为166元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为642.17元/吨，再生铝开工率为59.8%，环比持平，处于高 位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 点评 24 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 8860 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.43%，持仓 增仓 4414 手至 21.8 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9063 元/吨，较上一交易 日上调 23 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格持稳在 8850 元/吨，现货升水转至 贴水 10 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2605 收于 58300 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.3%，持仓减仓 4519 手至 12.7 万手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格下调 至 52350 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格下调至 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴 水收至 5960 元/吨。西北厂家新增检修动态，因新产出品被前期套保单锁 定，厂家整体压力不大。年末西北存在进一步环保减产预期，工业硅受减 产和多晶硅提振，短期延续偏强态势。硅厂大幅提升现货报价，部分咨询 网站坚持稳价发布。受银价持续攀升影响，电池片全尺寸及硅片价格上 涨，下游在协会新的配额要求下面临一定减产压力。交易所再度进行规则 调整，针对全合约实施交易限额，叠加新纳入交割的两家品牌注册了少量 仓单， ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic precious metals market, particularly silver, has seen unprecedented inflows and price increases, with silver futures experiencing a significant rise in both trading volume and price, indicating strong investor interest and market dynamics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 24, domestic platinum, palladium, silver, copper, and gold all reached new historical highs, with silver futures seeing a daily increase of 8.12% [3]. - The net inflow of funds into silver futures on December 24 was nearly 6.5 billion yuan, with a total open interest of approximately 820,000 contracts, indicating a substantial accumulation of capital [1][3]. - The price of the main silver futures contract has surpassed 17,600 yuan per kilogram, marking a new record [3]. Group 2: Comparative Analysis - From the beginning of December to the present, the domestic silver futures have increased by 38.36%, significantly outpacing international silver prices, which rose by 25.4% in New York and 26% in London during the same period [2]. - The domestic silver fund, Guotou Silver LOF, has seen a remarkable increase of 103.93% since early December, with an annual increase of 254.9%, far exceeding the monthly and annual increases of silver futures [4]. Group 3: Fund and Investment Dynamics - The Guotou Silver LOF fund has experienced a trading halt due to its price being significantly higher than its net asset value, indicating potential risks for investors [7]. - Other commodity funds, including those focused on precious metals, have also announced trading halts due to similar pricing discrepancies, highlighting the volatility in the market [9]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented new trading limits and margin requirements for silver futures to manage the high volatility and speculative trading [10][11]. - The CME Group has also raised margin requirements for silver futures, aiming to curb excessive leverage in the market, which historically has led to significant price corrections [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][3][5][6] 2. Core Views Steel - Steel price center has risen, rebar basis has weakened, and hot-rolled coil basis has remained stable. Steel maintains production cuts and inventory reduction. The inventory reduction is acceptable under the influence of production cuts, but the inventory structure is still differentiated. Rebar has a better inventory reduction and runs at a relatively low inventory level. After the production cut of hot-rolled coils, the inventory reduction is slow, and the inventory remains at a relatively high level compared to the same period last year. Production cuts support steel prices, and with the stabilization of coking coal prices, steel prices have rebounded from the low level, but the demand is weak, and the upward driving force is insufficient. Overall, it is judged to maintain a range-bound trend. It is expected that rebar will maintain a range of 3000 - 3200, and hot-rolled coils will maintain a range of 3150 - 3350. The 1 - 5 positive spread of rebar can continue to be held; the long position in the rebar - iron ore ratio arbitrage can be held [1] Iron Ore - Yesterday, the iron ore 09 contract fluctuated. In terms of news, Beijing introduced relevant policies to optimize and adjust the housing purchase restriction policy, including relaxing purchase qualifications and reducing the down - payment ratio for second - home purchases with provident fund loans. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the global iron ore shipment decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis but still remained at a high level in the same period of history. The year - end production rush of the two major mines still supports the supply. The arrival volume decreased slightly, and the absolute value is at a high level in the same period of history. According to the shipment calculation, the arrival volume will remain at a relatively high level in the next two weeks. On the demand side, the molten iron production continued to decline on a week - on - week basis, and the overall level dropped to a relatively low level in history. According to SMM statistics, the blast furnace maintenance volume increased by 0.01 million tons week - on - week last week and will decrease by 2.99 million tons week - on - week next week. Steel mills may resume production, but the resumption strength is expected to be not strong. In terms of inventory, the inventory increased significantly on a week - on - week basis on Monday. It is expected that with the arrival volume remaining at a moderately high level, the port clearance volume will decline under production cuts, and iron ore will still maintain an inventory accumulation pattern, but the marginal inventory accumulation space will be less than before. The subsequent BHP negotiation result will determine when to address the high - inventory contradiction. Looking forward to the future, the key lies in the BHP negotiation, the molten iron trend, and the steel mill restocking expectation. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is difficult to lead to a trend - like decline, while the price is obviously suppressed by the high inventory above. As the steel mill production resumption increases, considering the limited downward space of molten iron and the raw material restocking demand, it is expected that the iron ore price may rebound slightly. Strategically, it is recommended to mainly conduct short - term range trading on the 05 contract, with the reference range of 760 - 810 [3] Coke - Yesterday, the coke futures fluctuated. On the spot side, the third round of coke price cuts landed on December 22, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts in the short term. The port price has fallen in advance and is currently stable. On the supply side, the coal mine shipment has improved to some extent, the daily production has decreased slightly, the coal mine has accumulated inventory due to slow sales, and the coal mine production may continue to decline near the end of the year. In terms of imported coal, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the Mongolian coal quotation fluctuates with the futures. At the end of the year, the mines are rushing to ship. On the demand side, steel mills' losses have increased, leading to more maintenance, the molten iron production has declined, and steel prices are fluctuating at a low level, with the intention to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, coking plants have accumulated inventory, while ports and steel mills have reduced inventory. The overall inventory has slightly decreased from a medium level, and the coke supply - demand has weakened. The coke futures have fallen in advance, and the spot price decline refers to the coking coal decline space. Strategically, after the third round of spot price cuts, the basis has weakened, and the expected - driven rebound is difficult to sustain. The long position in the coke 2605 contract should be closed for profit [5] Silicon Iron - Yesterday, the silicon iron futures fluctuated with a narrowing range. In terms of news, a 40500kva silicon iron furnace in Shenmu was shut down, reducing the daily production of 75 - silicon by 100 tons. A 45000kva silicon iron furnace in a Baotou enterprise was restarted, increasing the daily production of 72 - silicon by 120 tons. The production of a 40500kva silicon iron furnace in Shaanxi was affected, with a daily production reduction of 100 - 120 tons, and the production suspension time is to be determined. On the supply side, last week, the production reduction of silicon iron expanded, and the production increase was mainly concentrated in Ningxia and Qinghai. Manufacturers' losses continued to deepen, and they tried to ease the supply - demand contradiction through passive production cuts and conversions. The subsequent focus is on the supply change. The molten iron production has continued to decline on a week - on - week basis, and the inventory contradiction of plates has intensified, but the inventory - consumption ratio is still at a high - level. The molten iron production will decline, but the downward space may be limited. In the short term, the demand for silicon iron in steelmaking and ferroalloy production will maintain a contraction pattern. In terms of non - steel demand, the national iron and steel production will decline, but the downstream restocking will increase at the end of the month, yet the downstream's acceptance of high prices is poor. In terms of exports, there are many orders overseas, but the high - price acceptance is insufficient. In addition, the re - export trade of Russia and North Korea still has an impact. In terms of cost, the semi - coke price has slightly declined, and the low - cost power regions have a relative advantage. Looking forward to the future, the supply - demand contradiction of silicon iron is still difficult to resolve, but the production reduction expectation has been partially priced in, and the subsequent demand improvement expectation is insufficient, so the price rebound lacks sustainability. The production reduction has already affected the price, and the cost side should focus on the coal price change. In the short term, it is expected that the price will fluctuate in a range, with the reference range of 5500 - 5700 [6] Silicon Manganese - Yesterday, the silicon manganese futures fluctuated. In terms of news, a high - silicon manganese plant in Inner Mongolia recently converted 2 ore - smelting furnaces to produce silicon manganese 6517, and the subsequent specific production situation depends on the actual production of the factory. On the supply side, the production in the main production areas has decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis, the production in the low - cost areas is relatively stable, and there is still a certain expectation of capacity reduction in the Inner Mongolia area recently. The southern main production areas maintain production cuts. The molten iron production has continued to decline on a week - on - week basis, and although the inventory contradiction of plates has intensified to some extent, the inventory - consumption ratio is still at a high - level. The molten iron production will decline, but the downward space may be limited. In the short term, the demand for silicon manganese will maintain a contraction pattern. The steel mills' price - pressing sentiment is strong. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory still remains at a high - level, and the insufficient production - cut strength results in a limited year - on - year and month - on - month inventory reduction. The supply - demand contradiction is still prominent. In terms of cost, the manganese ore price is firm, and the quotes of some overseas mines for January have been raised. The electricity price is basically stable, and the short - term manganese ore inventory provides certain support for the cost. Overall, silicon manganese is in a situation where its own supply is in excess, but the overall situation is relatively balanced. The manganese ore provides certain support for the silicon manganese price. The key in the future lies in the production - cut amplitude, the end - of - year winter restocking of steel mills, and the raw material restocking expectation. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction has been priced in to some extent, and there is no clear signal of a significant rebound. It is expected that the subsequent price will still operate weakly, but the trend - like decline amplitude is limited. Strategically, it is advisable to consider shorting when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost, mainly for short - term trading [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3320 yuan/ton, 3170 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased by 8 yuan/ton, 4 yuan/ton, and 5 yuan/ton respectively. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3270 yuan/ton, 3180 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased by 4 yuan/ton, 6 yuan/ton, and 7 yuan/ton respectively [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. - The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 5 yuan/ton to 3229 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 11 yuan/ton to 3167 yuan/ton. - The profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 6 yuan/ton, and the profit of North China hot - rolled coils increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 96 yuan/ton [1] Production - The daily average molten iron production decreased by 2.4 tons to 226.6 tons, a decrease of 1.1%. - The production of the five major steel products decreased by 8.3 tons to 798.0 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. - The rebar production increased by 2.9 tons to 181.7 tons, an increase of 1.6%. Among them, the electric - arc furnace production increased by 1.8 tons to 29.3 tons, an increase of 6.3%, and the converter production increased by 1.2 tons to 152.4 tons, an increase of 0.8%. - The hot - rolled coil production decreased by 16.8 tons to 291.9 tons, a decrease of 5.4% [1] Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 37.3 tons to 1294.8 tons, a decrease of 2.8%. - The rebar inventory decreased by 27.0 tons to 452.5 tons, a decrease of 5.6%. - The hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 6.4 tons to 390.7 tons, a decrease of 1.6% [1] Transaction and Demand - The building material trading volume increased by 0.7 to 8.6, an increase of 7.9%. - The apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased by 4.4 to 835.3, a decrease of 0.5%. - The apparent demand of rebar increased by 5.5 to 208.6, an increase of 2.7%. - The apparent demand of hot - rolled coils decreased by 13.7 to 298.3, a decrease of 4.4% [1] Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines were 836.9 yuan/ton, 846.8 yuan/ton, 843.1 yuan/ton, and 884.0 yuan/ton respectively. The PB fines and Brazilian blended fines increased by 1.1 yuan/ton and 2.2 yuan/ton respectively. - The 05 - contract basis of Karara fines decreased by 1.0 to 57.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.7%. The 05 - contract basis of Brazilian blended fines increased by 1.2 to 63.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.9%. - The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 21.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.3%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 0.5 to 18.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.8% [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) decreased by 76.7 tons to 2646.7 tons, a decrease of 2.8%. - The global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 128.0 tons to 3464.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6%. - The national monthly import volume decreased by 74.7 tons to 11054.0 tons, a decrease of 0.7% [3] Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 2.6 tons to 226.6 tons, a decrease of 1.2%. - The 45 - port daily average clearance volume (weekly) decreased by 5.7 tons to 313.5 tons, a decrease of 1.8%. - The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 320.6 tons to 6234.3 tons, a decrease of 4.9%. - The national monthly crude steel production decreased by 212.6 tons to 6987.1 tons, a decrease of 3.0% [3] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) compared with Monday increased by 130.2 tons to 15512.63 tons, an increase of 0.8%. - The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 110.3 tons to 8724.0 tons, a decrease of 1.2%. - The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) increased by 1.0 to 21.0 days, an increase of 5.0% [3] Coke Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 1561 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 1230 yuan/ton. - The coke 01 contract increased by 3 yuan/ton to 1599 yuan/ton, and the coking coal 01 contract increased by 3 yuan/ton to 1047 yuan/ton. - The coke 05 contract increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1746 yuan/ton, and the coking coal 05 contract increased by 7 yuan/ton to 1132 yuan/ton [5] Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.0 tons to 63.0 tons, a decrease of 1.5%. - The daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons to 46.5 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. - The raw coal production decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decrease of 0.34%. - The clean coal production decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [5] Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.6 tons to 226.6 tons, a decrease of 1.2%. - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.0 tons to 63.0 tons, a decrease of 1.5% [5] Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 3.3 tons to 900.5 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. - The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8 tons to 91.1 tons, an increase of 4.3%. - The coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 6.6 tons to 633.7 tons, a decrease of 1.5%. - The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.0 tons to 1036.3 tons, a decrease of 0.1%. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 10.3 tons to 805.0 tons, an increase of 1.3%. - The port inventory decreased by 5.5 tons to 175.7 tons, a decrease of 3.14% [5] Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the silicon iron main contract increased by 8 yuan/ton to 5656 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the silicon manganese main contract increased

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The current price is mainly dominated by supply - side interference news with over - speculation. The inventory depletion speed continues to slow down, and there is a divergence between futures and spot prices in the market. With a large short - term increase, there is a need to be vigilant about the callback risk [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 24, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 122,000 yuan/ton and closed at 124,720 yuan/ton, with a 5.89% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 949,006 lots, and the open interest was 647,366 lots (the previous day's open interest was 671,573 lots). The current basis is - 21,900 yuan/ton. There were 17,101 lithium carbonate warehouse receipts, a change of 450 lots from the previous day. Despite the Guangzhou Futures Exchange raising the trading and intraday closing transaction fees for the lithium carbonate futures LC2605 contract to 0.032% of the transaction amount, the futures still rose significantly, and the current price is at a two - year high [1] Spot Market - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 97,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton, a change of 2,000 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 96,700 - 101,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 2,000 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,450 US dollars/ton, a change of 30 US dollars/ton. In November 2025, China's total lithium carbonate imports were about 22,055 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 15%, with an average import price of about 9,915 US dollars/ton, a 11% month - on - month increase from the October average price. The lithium spodumene imports reached 729,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 12%, equivalent to about 81,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). Australia was the main source of the increase, with imports reaching 425,000 tons in that month, a significant month - on - month increase of 44% and accounting for 58% of the total imports. Imports from Zimbabwe were 110,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28%; imports from Nigeria were 92,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16%. Additionally, 73,000 tons of lithium spodumene ore from Mali arrived at ports [2] Inventory Situation - According to SMM statistics, the spot inventory is 110,425 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,044 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 18,090 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,071 tons; the downstream inventory is 41,485 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,253 tons; other inventories are 50,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,280 tons. The downstream and smelter inventories are decreasing while other inventories are increasing. The overall inventory in December is expected to continue to decline, but the inventory depletion is slowing down, and attention should be paid to the release of relevant inventory data on Thursday [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Pay attention to the inflection points of consumption and inventory, and choose the right time to sell hedging at high prices. Cross - period: None. Cross - variety: None [4]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-25 铝到货量增加价格跟涨乏力 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价22030元/吨，较上一交易日变化160元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-170元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价21870元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-330元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21940元/吨，较上一交易日变化150元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-10元/吨至-255元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-24日沪铝主力合约开于22290元/吨，收于22330元/吨，较上一交易日变化205元/吨，最 高价达22340元/吨，最低价达到22050元/吨。全天交易日成交294532手，全天交易日持仓296924手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-24，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存60.0万吨，较上一期变化2.2万吨，仓单库存76436 吨，较上一交易日变化347吨，LME铝库存521050吨，较上一交易日变化1450吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-24SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2715元/吨，山东价格录得2640元/吨，河南价格录得 2725元/吨 ...