Group 1: Trading Holiday Arrangements - CME's agricultural products, live hogs, live cattle, cocoa, coffee, 11 - number sugar, ICUS's cotton and orange juice are on holiday on June 19; CME's interest rates, bonds, indices close early at 01:00 on the 20th, metals and energy close early at 02:30 on the 20th, and low - sulfur diesel, Brent crude, WTI close early at 01:30 on the 20th; ICEU's sugar closes early at 00:00 on the 20th [2] - BMD's all products are on holiday on June 27; DCE, INE, ZCE's all products are on holiday on June 19 [2] Group 2: Key News - Oil prices rise slightly after fluctuations due to speculation of US joining Middle - East conflict; London copper falls slightly as traders weigh Middle - East situation and tight supply; spot gold drops [3] - The US dollar rises slightly, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars fall as US officials prepare for possible strike on Iran; the RMB is stable [4] Group 3: Economic Data - In the US, the Michigan consumer confidence index in June is 60.50 (expected 53.60); the New York manufacturing survey index in June is - 16.00 (expected - 7.00); retail sales in May decline by 0.9% month - on - month (expected - 0.7%); etc [5] - In China, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 in May is 7.9% (expected 8.1%); the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail in May is 6.4% (expected 4.9%); etc [5] Group 4: Energy Futures Market Overview - New York crude (JUL 25) has a settlement price of 75.14, a daily increase of 0.40%, a 1 - month increase of 20.86%, and a 3 - month increase of 13.34% [6] - Brent crude (AUG 25) has a settlement price of 76.7, a daily increase of 0.33%, a 1 - month increase of 18.02%, and a 3 - month increase of 10.15% [6] - Natural gas (JUL 25) has a settlement price of 3.989, a daily increase of 3.58%, a 1 - month increase of 15.30%, and a 3 - month decrease of 14.74% [6] Important Data - EIA crude inventory changes by - 1147.3 barrels (previous - 364.4); EIA natural gas inventory changes by 95 billion cubic feet per day (previous 109) [9] - The total number of drilling rigs is 555 (previous 559); the number of oil drilling rigs is 439 (previous 442) [9] Group 5: Metal Futures Market Overview - Gold (AUG 25) has a settlement price of 3408.1, a daily increase of 0.04%, a 1 - month increase of 3.97%, and a 3 - month increase of 9.58% [7] - Silver (JUL 25) has a settlement price of 36.913, a daily decrease of 0.64%, a 1 - month increase of 13.22%, and a 3 - month increase of 6.64% [7] Important Data - COMEX gold inventory is 3778.42 million ounces (change - 0.03); COMEX silver inventory is 49573.51 million ounces (change - 84.8) [10] - SPDR gold trust total is 947.37 tons (change 1.43); ISHARE silver trust total is 47182.39 million ounces (change - 127.25) [10] Group 6: Foreign Exchange Futures Market Overview - The US dollar index (SEP 25) has a settlement price of 98.468, a daily increase of 0.08%, a 1 - month decrease of 1.30%, and a 3 - month decrease of 4.08% [8] - The euro (SEP 25) has a settlement price of 1.1544, a daily decrease of 0.03%, a 1 - month increase of 1.84%, and a 3 - month increase of 4.66% [8] Important Data - The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.3909% (change 0.05%); the 10 - year German Treasury yield is 2.497% (change 1.19%) [11] Group 7: Stock Index Futures Market Overview - The small - cap Dow Jones index (SEP 25) has a settlement price of 42512, a daily decrease of 0.10%, a 1 - month decrease of 1.82%, and a 3 - month decrease of 0.45% [12] - The small - cap S&P 500 index (SEP 25) has a settlement price of 6034.25, a daily decrease of 0.07%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.24%, and a 3 - month increase of 4.20% [12] Important Data - The US federal funds target rate is 4.5% (change 0.00%); LIBOR US dollar overnight is 5.06157 (change 0.20%) [15] Group 8: Soft Commodity and Agricultural Product Futures Market Overview - No. 2 cotton (DEC 25) has a settlement price of 66.67, a daily decrease of 1.98%, a 1 - month decrease of 1.48%, and a 3 - month decrease of 4.15% [13] - No. 11 sugar (OCT 25) has a settlement price of 16.31, a daily decrease of 1.21%, a 1 - month decrease of 7.80%, and a 3 - month decrease of 17.21% [13] Important Data - ICE non - commercial net position has different values and changes in different cases; ICE commercial net position also has corresponding values and changes [16]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-19 仓单减少较多，需关注近月交割情况 市场分析 2025年6月18日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于60000元/吨，收于59880元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价下跌0.02%。当 日成交量为181046手，持仓量为306885手，较前一交易日减少450手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货贴水电碳570 元/吨。所有合约总持仓604974手，较前一交易日减少7855手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日减少12486手，成交 量减少，整体投机度为0.43 。当日碳酸锂仓单29967手，较上个交易日减少1746手。近期仓单注销较多，价格较低 时，新仓单注册较少，需关注7月仓单注销后，新仓单注册情况。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年6月18日电池级碳酸锂报价5.99-6.1万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0万元/吨，工 业级碳酸锂报价5.835-5.935万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0万元/吨。现货价格持稳，当前碳酸锂市场仍呈现供需过 剩格局，供应端可流通量级维持相对充足，而需求端表现则相对疲软，下游材料企业采购意愿偏低，以刚需补库 为主，未见备库需求显现。 库存方面：根据SMM最新 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-19 不锈钢支撑显现，盘面价小幅反弹 镍品种 市场分析 2025-06-18日沪镍主力合约2507开于118790元/吨，收于118480元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.42%，当日成交量 为76829手，持仓量为84114手。 沪镍主力合约2507继续弱势震荡，日线收出五连阴线。07主力合约的成交量对比上个交易日有所增加，持仓量对 比上个交易日基本持平。从量能方面来看，日线MACD的绿柱面积开始缓慢扩大，短周期内或许会延续弱势震荡 的阶段。60分钟线在6月6日的123000附近出现顶背离现象，继续关注上方122000-123000短期一线压力位置，下方 119000已破位底背离结构出现，关注短周期内反弹的力度。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日报价持 平，市场主流品牌报价均有一定的下调。近期精炼镍盘面以弱势震荡为主，但市场升贴水相对强硬，沪镍下方仍 有支撑，今天精炼镍现货成交整体表现尚可，升贴水对比上个交易日持平，升贴水近期处于相对平稳的态势。其 中金川镍升水变化0元/吨至2600元/吨，进口镍升水变化150元/吨至500元/吨，镍豆升水为 -450元/吨。 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-19 期货方面：2025-06-18沪锌主力合约开于21885元/吨，收于22060元/吨，较前一交易日上涨185元/吨，全天交易日 成交123695手，较前一交易日减少694手，全天交易日持仓97228手，较前一交易日减少8440手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22130元/吨，最低点达到21825元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-06-16，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为7.81万吨，较上周同期减少-0.36万吨。截止2025-06-18，LME 锌库存为128250吨，较上一交易日减少625吨。 市场分析 现货市场方面，下游畏高情绪较重，以消耗库存为主，现货市场成交较差，现货升水进一步下滑。成本端，国产 矿TC暂且平稳，当前锌矿进口窗口关闭，国产矿相较进口矿更具优势，海外3季度进口矿TC仍在继续攀升。冶炼 厂原料库存依旧充足，矿端不改上涨大趋势。供应方面，冶炼利润保持稳定，长期供给高增速预期不改。消费表 现超预期强势，锌合金开工率仍在增加，锌锭社会库存仍未形成趋势性累库，或存在锌合金蓄水池现象导致。短 期需警惕中东危机引发的能源扰动。 策略 单边：谨慎偏空。 套利：中性 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-19 天然橡胶社会库存环比增加 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约14010元/吨，较前一日变动+140元/吨。NR主力合约12330元/吨，较前一日变动+190 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14000元/吨，较前一日变动+150元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13850元/吨， 较前一日变动+100元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1725美元/吨，较前一日变动+15美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号 标胶1665美元/吨，较前一日变动+15美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12000元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/ 吨。浙江传化BR9000市场价11650元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。 近期市场资讯：QinRex最新数据显示，泰国前5个月天然橡胶、混合胶合计出口195.4万吨，同比增14.3%；合计出 口中国125万吨，同比增40%。 据中国海关总署6月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前5个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达389万吨，同比增长7.3%；出口金 额为691亿元，同比增长7.7%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达375万吨，同比增长7%；出口金额为6 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 6 月 19 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周三，ICE 美棉下跌 1.45%，报收 66.57 美分/磅，CF509 环比上涨 0.3%，报收 13540 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比基本持平，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14756 元/吨，较前一 | | | | 日下降 6 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14857 元/吨，较前一日下降 5 元/ | | | | 吨。国际市场方面，国际地缘冲突仍在持续，美联储 6 月议息会议按兵不动，符合 | | | | 市场预期，但变态偏鹰，预计年内降息次数仍为 2 次，但支持不降息的官员数量增 | | | | 加，美棉价格承压下行。国内市场方面，受外部宏观扰动，昨夜郑棉期价重心略有 | | | | 下移。国内陈棉库存处于近年来同期偏低水平，但短期也无库存短缺担忧，新棉丰 | | | | 产预期较强。下游需求表现相对偏弱，纺织企业开机负荷环比小幅下降，库存水平 | | | | 在持续累积，基本面上行驱动有限。综合来看，预计 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-06-19 船司继续尝试推涨7月上半月运价，关注最终落地情况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹26周价格1705/2870，7月第一周价格开出为2040/3400；HPL 6月下半月船 期报价1835/2935，7月上半月船期报价2435/3835，7月下半月船期报价2435/3835。 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 上海-鹿特丹6月下半月船期报价1940/3240；ONE上海-鹿特丹6月下半月船期报价 2571/2937,7月上半月船期报价I 3474/4043；HMM6月下半月上海-鹿特丹价格1717/3004。 Ocean Alliance：COSCO上海-鹿特丹 6月下半月船期报价2625/4225；CMA 6月上海-鹿特丹6月下半月船期报价 1861/3297，7月份船期报价2235/4045；EMC6月下半月船期报价2555/3610，7月第一周船期报价2555/3860；OOCL 6月下半月报价1850/3190，7月份船期报价2300/4000. 船舶延误拖累6月16日SCFIS，随着交割期限临近 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-06-19 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 市场情绪谨慎，钢价区间震荡 钢材：市场情绪谨慎，钢价区间震荡 市场分析 昨日，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于2986元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3102元/吨。现货方面，现货方面，根据昨日钢谷数 据显示，昨日全国建材产量、消费都有所上升，库存下降；热卷产量和库存下降，需求小幅上升。昨日，全国建 材成交9.67万吨。 综合来看：螺纹方面，随着建材进入消费淡季，建材产销存持续回落，由于目前市场缺乏投机性需求，淡季弱需 求将持续压制钢材价格；热卷方面，目前板材利润优于建材，产销表现出较强韧性，市场担忧后期抢出口情绪退 坡后影响板材消费，虽然出口略有下滑，但是短期仍保持高位。整体来看，钢材目前供需矛盾不大，后期关注中 美关税谈判和内需刺激政策。 策略 单边：震荡 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场成交一般，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅下跌，贸易商报价积极性一 般，报价多随行就市，市场交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按需 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The price of industrial silicon oscillated strongly, mainly affected by the expected increase in the downstream polysilicon start - up and the overall macro - sentiment, with little change in the fundamentals. The polysilicon futures price dropped significantly on June 18, 2025, mainly due to the expected increase in production and weak consumption [1][2][3][6] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On June 18, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated strongly. The main contract 2509 opened at 7390 yuan/ton and closed at 7425 yuan/ton, a change of 80 yuan/ton (1.09%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 317763 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 55620 lots, a change of - 448 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton. Spot purchases were mainly for rigid demand [1] - The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 10400 - 10900 yuan/ton. The start - up of the organic silicon industry increased, but consumption was average, and prices were under pressure [1] Polysilicon - On June 18, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures dropped significantly, opening at 33960 yuan/ton and closing at 33370 yuan/ton, a - 2.00% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 30435 lots (43443 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 94724 lots [3] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 31.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 29.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 34.00 - 37.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 32.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg [3] - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased slightly, while silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.50 (a 2.23% change), silicon wafer inventory was 19.34GW (a - 3.40% change). The weekly polysilicon production was 23800.00 tons (an 8.00% change), and silicon wafer production was 13.10GW (a 0.40% change) [3] Silicon Wafer - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.91 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.27 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.06 yuan/piece [3] Battery Cell - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 battery cells was about 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5] Component - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.68 - 0.70 yuan/W (a - 0.01 yuan/W change), and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.70 yuan/W (a - 0.01 yuan/W change) [5] Strategy Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon oscillated strongly. The strategy was mainly range - bound operation, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices [2] Polysilicon - The futures price dropped significantly, mainly affected by the expected increase in production and weak consumption. The strategy was range - bound operation, and sell hedging at high prices. There were no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6] Factors to Watch - The resumption and new capacity production in the Northwest and Southwest regions [4] - Changes in the start - up of polysilicon enterprises [4] - Policy disturbances [4] - Macro and capital sentiment [4] - The start - up of organic silicon enterprises [4]

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