贸易（资料图） 当白宫挥舞的关税大棒第一次遭遇实质性反击时，全球经济秩序的天平开始发生微妙倾斜。 近期，据金融界报道，美国总统特朗普周四在卡塔尔首都多哈表示，印度向美国提出了一项零关税的贸易协议。4月9日，特朗普宣布对主要贸易伙伴征收关 税，其中包括对印度征收26%的关税，目前印度方面正寻求在90天的暂停期内与美国达成贸易协议。特朗普周四在卡塔尔与商界领袖举行的活动上发表讲 话，称印度政府"向我们提出了一项协议，基本上他们愿意不向我们收取任何关税。" 编辑 贸易（资料图） 日本坚持以"零关税"为目标，日美贸易谈判前景如何？日本央行的政策路径又将如何影响？上海国际问题研究院陈友骏认为，日美结构性矛盾不可调和，日 方在谈判中"讨价还价"空间很小。浙商银行财富管理部总行投顾周锦舜认为，日美贸易谈判可能分几个阶段，前景并不明朗。受关税影响，日本部分经济先 行指标已经走弱。 印度并没有直接喊零关税，而是转头威胁美国，扬言要对美商品征收报复性关税，要不说印度的外交政策就是"骑墙"，真厉害跟谁，前两天还跟印度女婿万 斯相谈甚欢，上赶着对美国示好，现在一看中国比较牛，立马调转枪口，朝着特朗普就开炮。当然印度这个是威胁，会不会 ...

Economic Outlook - The European Commission has downgraded the economic growth forecast for the Eurozone, expecting a GDP growth of only 0.9% for this year, down from a previous estimate of 1.3% [1][2] - For 2026, the GDP growth is projected to be 1.4%, also lower than the earlier forecast of 1.6% [2] - The downgrade is attributed to rising tariffs, recent shifts in U.S. trade policy, and increased uncertainty regarding tariff configurations [1][2] Trade Relations - The Eurozone's growth outlook is significantly impacted by the ongoing "trade war," leading to strengthened ties between the EU and the UK [1] - A bilateral summit was held between the UK and the EU, marking the first since Brexit, focusing on defense, trade, and fishing rights [5][6] - A breakthrough agreement was reached to significantly reduce trade barriers and extend fishing rights until 2038 [6] Economic Challenges - Germany's economy is stagnating, with a projected growth rate of zero for this year, primarily due to its heavy reliance on exports and rising energy costs [3] - The European Commission noted that the risks to the growth outlook are skewed to the downside, with potential further fragmentation of global trade and climate-related disasters posing ongoing risks [2][3] Inflation and Employment - The unemployment rate in the Eurozone is expected to decline over the next two years, reaching 5.7% next year [4] - Consumer inflation is projected to decrease from 2.4% last year to 2.1% this year, and further down to 1.7% by 2026 [4] Fiscal Outlook - The public finance situation in the Eurozone is expected to slightly deteriorate, with the budget deficit as a percentage of GDP rising from 3.1% last year to 3.2% this year [4] - Public debt as a percentage of GDP is projected to increase from 88.9% in 2024 to 89.9% this year, and further to 91% by 2026 [4]

据参考消息网报道，匈牙利官员日前表示，不会削弱与中国之间的经济联系。这是迄今为止最明确的信号，显示由总理欧尔班领导的匈牙利政府不会屈服于 美国要求其疏远北京的压力。据路透社报道，匈牙利国家经济部长纳吉·马顿在布达佩斯告诉记者，截至目前，匈牙利还没看到能与中国投资规模相匹敌的 美国新项目进入该国，其中一个原因是美国尚未与匈牙利签订新的税收协定。他说："我们看不到美国具备能与中国相媲美的投资潜力。我们的立场非常务 实。" 特朗普（资料图） 冯德莱恩（资料图） 欧方与其执着于建立"贸易流动监管机制"，不如关注中国政府的政策措施动向及其积极影响。中国转向扩大内需和提振消费，同样将为欧洲等世界各国的优 质产品和服务提供更广阔的市场空间。特别是中国正大力推进的服务业扩大开放，聚焦居民消费升级需求，推动医疗健康、文化娱乐等优质生活性服务进 口。在刚刚结束的第五届中国国际消费品博览会上，斯洛伐克首次以国家馆形式参展，具有90年历史的法国联合制药首次进入中国市场。 与此同时，俄罗斯也加快了和中国的合作。如今，中俄贸易已经远远超出"资源换商品"的范畴。虽然能源在两国贸易中仍然占据一席之地，但合作重心已转 向农业、制造业、高科技、 ...

国际金价如坐"过山车"，这是怎么了？ 消息面上，美国发起的贸易战又有升温迹象，黄金作为避险资产已应声上涨。周日，美国财政部长斯科 特・贝森特表示，若各国在90天关税暂停期内未达成贸易协议，关税税率将很快恢复至"对等"水平。贝 森特透露，美国正重点与18个"重要"贸易伙伴敲定协议，但未说明关税恢复"对等"税率的具体速度。 影响国际金价走势的另一个因素是，周末穆迪将美国信用评级下调，增加了市场的担忧情绪。国际信用 评级机构穆迪公司16日宣布，由于美国政府债务及利息支出增加，该机构决定将美国主权信用评级从 Aaa下调至Aa1，同时将其评级展望从"负面"调整为"稳定"。 穆迪当日发布公告说，评级下调反映出过去十多年来美国政府债务和利息支付比例升至显著高于拥有类 似评级国家的水平。穆迪认为，持续的大规模财政赤字将进一步推高政府债务和利息支出负担。与美国 以往以及其他高评级主权国家相比，美国财政状况很可能会恶化。 世界黄金协会发布的数据显示，今年第一季度，全球央行净购入黄金243.7吨，购金力度较上一季度 （365吨）已显著下调。国际投行对于黄金预期也出现了分化。 短短一个月，国际金价从历史高点3500美元/盎司下跌了近 ...

作者-甜 编辑-甜 特朗普他最近又开始挥舞关税大棒，摆出一副"我说了算"的架势，这回，他把矛头对准了沃尔玛，美国零售界的老大哥，直接放话，"你们这些大零售商， 关税成本自己搞定，别指望消费者买单！"这话听着挺硬气，但细一琢磨，里头门道可不少，特朗普为啥这么干？ 特朗普又开始冲着美国零售巨头沃尔玛喊话，"关税的账单，你们自己掏腰包"！ 中国这边压根儿不吃这一套，摆明了不买美国的账。 他想让美国企业"听话"，把供应链从中国挪回美国，或者至少别把关税成本甩给普通消费者，免得物价飙升，民怨沸腾，可这招儿，真的那么好使吗？沃尔 玛这种巨头，供应链遍布全球，尤其是中国，哪是说断就能断的？再说，关税这玩意儿，本质上就是个"谁来买单"的游戏。 特朗普想让沃尔玛自己吞下这颗苦果，可沃尔玛也不是吃素的，他们能乖乖听话？更别提，特朗普这招还有个大背景，他想借着关税给中国施压，逼中国在 贸易谈判桌上让步，可中国这边，压根儿不吃这一套，咱们往下看，中国的回应，那叫一个硬核！说到中国，咱得竖个大拇指！ 面对特朗普的关税大棒，中国压根儿没怂，直接摆出一副"你来啊"的架势，过去几年，中国的态度一直很明确，你加关税，我奉陪，你想打贸易战，咱就 ...

中美互降关税正式生效，中方订单暴增，特朗普则发现不妙，美国货已经没人买了。 据观察者网报道，近期的中美贸易战吸引了全世界的目光。在这样的背景下，中国多年来在海外港口的投资，成为了外媒关注的焦点。 在中美达成共识后，中国输美商品的订单量暴增。最近几天，中国出口企业的电话几乎"被打爆"，大量美国客户要求加快交货。与此同时，据相关数据统 计，中国输美海运集装箱订单量激增近300%。 有分析认为，美国这种报复性消费中国产品的行为，既反映出美国对华巨大的贸易需求，同时也凸显了美国对于中国制造的严重依赖。 然而，部分美国人并没有高兴太久，因为他们发现，中国对美国商品的需求量并没有如预期般的上涨。也就是说，中国已经不打算买美国的东西了。 从近期中国的动作不难看出，我们正在积极推进与南美国家的合作。中国充分发挥"基建狂魔"属性，随着这些国家相关设施的完善，中国与他们的贸易量将 直线上升，这对于中国贸易结构的稳定，起到了积极作用。 老话说得好："不要将鸡蛋放在一个篮子里"。随着美国任性的对华发动贸易战，中国已经意识到美国的"不可靠"。特朗普早就应该知道，美国商品并非不可 替代。美国不打算跟中国做生意，中国完全可以寻找别国，并且 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of stock index futures is range - bound with the CSI 300 Index showing relative resilience, and the medium - term view is bullish. For bond futures, the short - term view is a volatile rebound, and the medium - term view is bullish. For copper, the short - term view is a 77000 - 78700 range fluctuation, and the medium - term view is a 66000 - 90000 range fluctuation. Industrial silicon is expected to run weakly in the short - term and be under pressure in the medium - term. Polysilicon is expected to run weakly in the short - term and at a low level in the medium - term. Lithium carbonate is expected to continue to decline in the short - term and experience a steady price drop with weakening cost support in the medium - term [1][2][4][6][10][12] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Intraday View**: Range - bound, with the CSI 300 Index showing relative resilience - **Medium - term View**: Bullish - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in IF2506 and a hedging portfolio of long IF206 and short IM2506 - **Core Logic**: Sino - US tariff relaxation boosts short - term risk appetite, but trade negotiation uncertainties remain. Policy support for the capital market encourages medium - and low - risk - preference funds to increase allocations in weighted sectors such as the CSI 300 or dividend assets [1] Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Intraday View**: Volatile rebound - **Medium - term View**: Bullish - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 - **Core Logic**: Weak domestic demand in April's inflation and financial data may lead to further monetary policy easing. After the reserve requirement ratio cut, short - term liquidity tightened [2][3] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Copper - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate within the 77000 - 78700 range - **Medium - term View**: Fluctuate within the 66000 - 90000 range - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a range - trading approach - **Core Logic**: US restrictions on chip exports may drag down the US stock market. Kazakhstan's refined copper production declined in 2025. China's copper exports increased, but domestic copper demand in some sectors is expected to decline. Copper inventories show a mixed trend. Tariff trade wars and domestic supply - demand changes will affect copper prices [4][5] Industrial Silicon - **Intraday View**: Run weakly within the 8100 - 8300 range - **Medium - term View**: Be under pressure within the 7900 - 9000 range - **Reference Strategy**: Sell SI2506 - C - 11000 until expiration and short the futures - **Core Logic**: In April 2025, production declined, but demand declined more, and the inventory is at a high level, leading to a continued supply - surplus situation [6][8][9] Polysilicon - **Intraday View**: Run weakly within the 36500 - 37000 range - **Medium - term View**: Run at a low level within the 35000 - 40000 range - **Reference Strategy**: Sell PS2506 - C - 47000 - **Core Logic**: In April 2025, production and demand both declined, and the inventory is at a high level, indicating a significant supply surplus [10][11] Lithium Carbonate - **Intraday View**: Continue to decline within the 60000 - 63000 range - **Medium - term View**: Experience a steady price drop with weakening cost support within the 59000 - 65000 range - **Reference Strategy**: Sell LC2507 - C - 83000 - **Core Logic**: The spot price is continuously falling. In April 2025, production increased, and the total inventory is at a high level, which is negative for the price [12]

央视网消息：国际评级机构穆迪近日下调美国主权信用评级、美国政府设置的关税壁垒仍高于预期，消费者信心持续低迷，经 济负面效应持续显现，来看国际媒体的分析评论。 西班牙《20分钟报》：充满变数 风险犹存 美国有线电视新闻网：消费者信心持续低迷 文章说，由于关税政策带来诸多不确定性以及政府债务上升，穆迪近日将美国的主权信用评级下调，至此美国失去主要评级机 构对它的最后一个3A最高评级。这体现美关税政策未来走向不明，令国内经济形势复杂化，贸易前景充满变数。分析指出，美国通 胀预期没有改观，当前整体经济形势依旧是暗流涌动、风险犹存。 5月美国消费者信心指数为50.8，比上个月下降了2.7%。特朗普政府此前设置关税壁垒，加剧了民众对经济衰退的担忧，导致消 费者信心指数逐月下降。尽管中美经贸高层会谈达成共识的消息在一定程度上提振了市场情绪，但专家认为这一反弹幅度较小，目 前看仍不足以改变整体形势，阶段性进展没能扭转市场的悲观预期。 日经亚洲评论：现有关税水平依旧是沉重的负担 中美经贸高层会谈达成共识后，经营玩具、服装等消费品的美国零售商迅速要求中国供应商发货并启动新订单。但对于众多美 国企业和机构而言，下调后的关税水平依旧 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The long - term upward logic of gold prices remains unchanged, but in the short term, due to the game between multiple and short factors such as tariffs, tax policies, and uncertainties in the US economy, gold prices are likely to show a wide - range oscillatory trend. It is recommended that investors wait and see in the short term and go long at low levels after the adjustment is in place. Silver trends generally follow gold, with a short - term oscillatory trend and limited long - term upside space due to economic downward risks and potential slowdown in physical demand [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Quotes - On May 16, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.88% to 751.8 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.61% to 8180 yuan/kilogram [3]. Price and Spread Data - **Price**: London gold spot, London silver spot, AU (T + D), COMEX silver, AG (T + D), COMEX gold, AU2508, and AG2508 all showed varying degrees of increase on May 16 compared to May 15, with increases ranging from 1.2% to 2.1% [3]. - **Spread**: The spreads of gold and silver in the domestic and foreign markets, as well as the spreads between TD and SHFE active prices, showed different degrees of change, with the change range of spreads from - 27.8% to 13.2% [3]. Position Data - **COMEX Non - commercial Positions**: On May 16, compared with May 15, the non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver changed, with the change range from - 4.24% to 2.71% [3]. - **ETF Positions**: The gold ETF - SPDR and silver ETF - SLV positions also showed certain changes [3]. Inventory Data - SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.08%, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 3.04%, and COMEX silver inventory remained unchanged on May 16 compared to May 15 [3]. Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market Data - On May 16, compared with May 15, the 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, NYMEX crude oil, and the S&P 500 all showed different degrees of change, with the change range from - 3.31% to 0.70% [3]. News Events - Trump stated on May 16 that he would set the tariff rates for US trading partners in the next two or three weeks [3]. - Russia - Ukraine direct negotiations restarted on May 16, but the results were not ideal, and the two sides reached an agreement on the exchange of 1000 prisoners of war and agreed to exchange lists of cease - fire conditions [3]. - Fed's Bostic expects one interest rate cut this year, and the US economy will not experience a recession [3]. - US consumer confidence declined, inflation expectations soared again, and the import price index rebounded [3]. - The US House Budget Committee rejected a Trump administration bill covering tax reform and healthcare adjustment on May 16 [3]. - Moody's downgraded the US rating to Aa1, with a stable outlook, and expected the ratio of federal budget deficit to GDP to reach 9% by 2035 and the ratio of federal debt to GDP to reach 134% by 2005 [3].

关于中方究竟是否会"解禁"稀土出口这个问题，商务部新闻发言人何咏前表示，鉴于美方根据中美经贸高层会谈共识， 撤销暂停或调整有关对华加征关税，中方相应调整有关关税和非关税对美反制措施。不过，中方在近期依然在就稀土出 口进行合理管控。比如就在9日，中方在深圳举办了打击战略矿产走私出口专项行动现场会；12号，中方在长沙举办了加 强战略矿产出口全链条管控工作部署会。显然，中方对稀土出口的管控有可能在近期不会出现太大的变化，那么这又是 为什么呢？ 这代表美国对中国发起的全面贸易战、关税战第一阶段失败后，转向在科技与芯片领域试图用"长臂管辖"重点进攻。问 题是，美国这次的"长臂管辖"也太长了。禁止全球使用华为芯片，甚至禁止中国企业在中国使用中国制造的先进芯片！ 美方为这条荒谬规定找到的理由是，华为的昇腾芯片过于先进，很可能是采用了某些美国软件或技术设计的，或很可能 由含有美国程序或技术的半导体制造设备制造。可笑的是，美国没有证据，纯靠猜测，就要给华为昇腾芯片"判死刑"。 事实上，长期以来，美国内部的对华鹰派就一直将中国半导体企业作为打击目标，同时也颁布了多种制裁措施来限制尖 端芯片对华出口，而这些做法其背后的真实意图无疑 ...