Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the unilateral market and suggests paying attention to the opportunity of going long on EB and short on BZ for spreads [1]. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the new production of pure benzene will exceed the incremental demand from downstream production, leading to a stockpiling cycle. However, the processing fee of pure benzene is already at a low level and is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Pure benzene may maintain a weak and low - volatility oscillation. For styrene, the new production will slow down in 2026, and there are still production plans for downstream hard plastics. But the current port inventory of styrene is still high. One can track the rhythm of inventory reduction at the high - level to engage in the cross - variety trading opportunity of going long on EB and short on BZ [1][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - In 2026, the nominal new production plan of pure benzene is 2.81 million tons/year, with the actual capacity growth weighted by production time at 1.37 million tons/year, and the actual capacity growth rate at 4.8%. The nominal growth in pure benzene demand due to new downstream capacity in China in 2026 is only 2.59 million tons/year, and the actual demand weighted by production time is only 0.64 million tons/year, with a demand growth rate of only 2.2%, significantly slower than in 2025. The annual balance sheet of pure benzene is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern [7]. - In 2026, the nominal capacity growth of styrene is 0.93 million tons/year, and the actual capacity growth weighted by production time is 0.013 million tons/year, with an actual capacity growth rate of 0.5%, significantly slower than in 2025. The nominal growth in styrene demand due to the production of three major hard plastics in China in 2026 is 1.88 million tons/year, and the actual demand weighted by production time is 0.87 million tons/year, driving a 5.3% demand growth rate. In 2026, styrene may shift from a stockpiling to a destocking cycle, but it is necessary to pay attention to whether the downstream inventory operation is lower than expected [8]. Market Analysis - The new production of pure benzene in 2026 exceeds the incremental demand from downstream production, and it is expected to enter a stockpiling cycle. However, the processing fee of pure benzene is already at a low level and will oscillate at a low level. Styrene's new production will slow down in 2026, and there are still production plans for downstream hard plastics. One can track the rhythm of inventory reduction at the high - level to engage in the cross - variety trading opportunity of going long on EB and short on BZ [9]. Strategy - On an annual basis, the unilateral price will oscillate in a range. In the first half of the year, the production pressure of pure benzene still exists, and the price will oscillate weakly. In the second half of the year, attention should be paid to whether the summer gasoline blending and crude oil prices can support the unilateral price. For spreads, pay attention to widening the EB - BZ spread at low levels, especially in the first half of the year. In terms of inter - period trading, BZ still favors reverse arbitrage, while EB should track the annual inventory reduction rhythm for positive arbitrage opportunities [10]. Annual Balance Sheet Estimation Pure Benzene & EB - **Pure Benzene Annual Self - estimated Balance Sheet Outlook**: In 2026, the pressure on pure benzene still exists, but the downstream production is limited. The total supply of pure benzene in China will increase by 2.7%, and the total demand will increase by 1.5%. The inventory change will be a 280,000 - ton increase, with an inventory change rate of 0.9% [17]. - **Styrene Annual Self - estimated Balance Sheet Outlook**: In 2026, the new production of styrene will slow down, and it is waiting for further inventory digestion. The total supply of styrene in China will decrease by 0.6%, and the total demand will increase by 2.1%. The inventory change will be a 130,000 - ton decrease [21]. 2026 China Pure Benzene & Styrene Production Situation - The nominal capacity growth rate of pure benzene in China in 2026 is 9.8% (the actual capacity growth rate weighted by production time is about 4.8%), and the nominal capacity growth rate of styrene is 3.9% (the actual capacity growth rate weighted by production time is about 0.5%), significantly slower than in 2025 [26]. - The main large - scale pure benzene production in 2026 will be Huajin and Zhongsha Gulei in the third quarter, with greater production pressure in Q1 and Q4. The production of styrene will slow down significantly in 2026, mainly focusing on Huajin Aramco in the fourth quarter. Before the start of the peak summer gasoline - blending season, the EB - BZ spread is expected to widen in the first half of the year [28][29]. Styrene Fundamental Analysis - In 2025, styrene had a profit recovery and inventory reduction in the first half of the year and then entered a loss - making and production - reduction pattern in the second half. The main maintenance periods were in April - May and October - November, especially for non - integrated plants using purchased pure benzene in October - November [31]. - In 2025, the overseas styrene maintenance increased, but the export did not increase further. The overseas demand for styrene was weak, resulting in the situation where increased overseas maintenance did not significantly support China's styrene export [45]. - In 2025, the styrene port inventory accumulated to a historical high and is waiting for digestion. The main reasons for the inventory increase were the weakening of downstream demand and the impact of new production [67]. EB Downstream Situation - In the second half of 2025, the production schedule growth rate of white goods significantly declined. The export of white goods decreased due to the tariff war, and the domestic sales also decreased due to the exhaustion of government subsidies [70]. - In 2026, the planned production of EPS is 0.82 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 9.1%; the planned production of PS is 0.87 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 10.1%; the planned production of ABS is 0.4 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 3.3%. The production growth rate of ABS will slow down in 2026 [91]. Pure Benzene Fundamental Analysis - In 2025, the pure benzene port inventory had great pressure. The processing fee of pure benzene decreased throughout the year, and the port inventory reached a relatively high historical level in July, mainly due to weak overseas demand and poor performance of domestic downstream industries [102]. - In 2025, the summer gasoline blending in the US was weak, and more pure benzene from South Korea was diverted to China, resulting in a significant increase in China's pure benzene imports. The gasoline demand in the US in 2025 was weak, especially in the peak season from June to August, which affected the Asian aromatic hydrocarbon market [107]. Pure Benzene Downstream Situation - In 2025, the downstream operation of pure benzene was weak. The downstream operation of pure benzene was significantly differentiated, with the demand for pure benzene mainly supported by the high operation of styrene. The non - styrene downstream industries of pure benzene had little demand growth or even negative growth [121]. - In 2026, the planned production of styrene is 0.93 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 3.9%; the planned production of phenol is 1.08 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 14.1%; the planned production of aniline is 0.3 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 6.2%; the planned production of adipic acid is 0.6 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 14.5%. In the first half of 2026, the new demand for pure benzene from downstream production will be less than the new pure benzene production capacity, and the pure benzene processing fee is expected to be weak. In the third and fourth quarters, the downstream production of pure benzene will gradually exceed its own production [128][131].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the polyolefin industry is neutral on a single - side basis [2][12] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the growth rate of polyolefin capacity expansion will slow down, especially in the first half of the year when there will be a new - production vacuum period. The first half of the year will focus on digesting the existing high inventory of polyolefins. However, the demand support before the Spring Festival is weak, and the inventory is expected to remain at a high level. It is recommended to maintain the reverse spread strategy for the 01 - 05 month inter - period spread. In March, as the "Golden March" peak season, polyolefin demand may seasonally recover, and the inventory is expected to start the destocking process. The annual strategy recommends the positive spread strategy for L05 - 09 and PP05 - 09 inter - period spreads. In 2026, the new PE production will mainly be non - standard HDPE, and the proportion of standard linear production is relatively low. It is recommended to short non - standard products and long standard linear products to narrow the non - standard price spread [2][12] Summary According to the Directory Market News and Important Data - **New production**: In 2026, the total new PE capacity will be 4.74 million tons per year, with a capacity growth rate of 11.9%, which is slower than in 2025. Most of the new production will be concentrated in the second half of the year, and only BASF's 500,000 - ton FDPE device will be put into production in the first half. For PP, the new capacity in 2026 will be 4.4 million tons per year, with a capacity growth rate of 8.8%, significantly slower than in 2025, and the new production will mainly be concentrated in Q3 - Q4 [7] - **Inventory**: After the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the polyolefin inventory has not been effectively destocked and remains at a high level. In 2026, especially in the first half of the year, the focus will be on digesting the existing high inventory. But before the Spring Festival, the demand is weak, and the inventory is expected to remain high until March [7] Market Analysis - **Production in 2025**: From January to October 2025, the total domestic polyethylene production was 26.195 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14%. The total domestic polypropylene production was 31.86 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11%, with the cumulative year - on - year increase in drawn wire production being 8% [8] - **Demand in 2025**: From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product output was 0.5%, with the main growth coming from industries such as automobiles, home appliances, and express delivery. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product export value was - 1.0%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of primary - shaped plastic import volume was - 7.6%. The downstream demand for PE and PP is generally weak [9] Polyolefin Market Review and Basis Structure - **PE market**: The plastic main contract shows the trend of the main contract, basis, and inter - period spread from 2023 to 2025 [19] - **PP market**: The domestic polypropylene market in 2025 showed a trend of continuous decline followed by low - level oscillation. It can be divided into three stages: the decline stage from January to May, the short - term support stage from June to August, and the low - level oscillation stage from September to the end of the year [22][23] Polyolefin Capacity Expansion - **2026 China's polyolefin production rhythm**: The production rhythm of polyolefins in China will slow down in 2026, especially in the first half of the year. The new PE capacity in 2026 is 4.74 million tons per year, and the new PP capacity is 4.4 million tons per year [27][33] - **2025 overseas polyolefin production**: In 2025, the total overseas new polyethylene capacity was 2.382 million tons, and there was an expected 1.85 - million - ton PP capacity expansion, with 600,000 tons in India already realized [35][38] Polyolefin Maintenance - **PE maintenance by process**: In 2025, the overall PE device maintenance volume remained high. Oil - based and alkane - based maintenance volumes were relatively large, while coal - based maintenance volume was similar to the same period [41] - **PP maintenance by process**: In 2025, the PP device maintenance volume continued to be high. Oil - based and PDH - based maintenance volumes were higher than the same period, while coal - based maintenance volume changed little [44] - **Polyolefin operating rate forecast**: The PE operating rate is expected to recover, and the PP operating rate is also expected to increase, but attention should be paid to the raw material supply and profit of PDH devices [53] Polyolefin Domestic Supply and Import - Export - **Domestic polyolefin production**: In 2025, the monthly PE output exceeded 2.6 million tons, and from January to October, the total production was 26.195 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14%. The total domestic polypropylene production from January to October was 31.86 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11% [63] - **Polyolefin production profit and operating rate**: In 2025, the polyolefin production profit was mainly affected by raw material prices, and the operating rate was generally low. The operating rate of alkane - based PE and PP devices was affected by Sino - US trade conflicts [68] - **Polyolefin non - standard price spread performance**: In 2025, the LLDPE operating rate increased significantly, and the non - standard price spread of PE is expected to narrow in 2026. The PP non - standard price spread showed a trend of narrowing and then rising [77] - **Polyolefin import - export situation**: From January to October 2025, China's cumulative polyethylene imports decreased by 3% year - on - year, and cumulative polypropylene imports decreased by 8% year - on - year. The PE external dependence is decreasing, and PP is gradually changing to an export - oriented product [95] - **Polyolefin domestic - foreign price spread**: In 2025, the LLDPE import window was mostly closed, and the export window was also closed. The PP import and export windows were mainly closed, but the Southeast Asian PP demand showed a slight recovery [103] Polyolefin Demand and Inventory - **Polyolefin downstream demand**: From January to October 2025, the domestic plastic product demand increased slightly, but the external demand was weak. The downstream demand for PE and PP was generally insufficient, waiting for policy - driven stimulation [125] - **Polyolefin inventory**: In 2025, the polyolefin inventory remained high. In 2026, especially in the first half of the year, the focus will be on digesting the high inventory, and the inventory is expected to start destocking in March [155][157]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the coal and coke market experienced significant fluctuations, with coal policies playing a decisive role in correcting supply - demand imbalances and guiding prices back to rational levels. In 2026, the supply - demand situation of coal and coke is expected to remain generally balanced, but short - term supply - demand mismatches caused by policy changes cannot be ignored. The prices of coal and coke will still fluctuate with the black sector, but the volatility will decrease significantly compared to 2025 [6]. Summary by Directory 2025 Coal Coke Market Review 2025 Coking Coal Market Review - **Price Trend**: The coking coal market showed a deep V - shaped trend in 2025. The futures price of the main coking coal contract dropped from 1,174 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 709 yuan/ton, a decline of 40%, and then rebounded to 1,328 yuan/ton, an increase of 87%. The spot price fluctuations were lower than those of futures. For example, the price of Shaheyi Mongolian coal No. 5 dropped by 27% and then rebounded by 52% [7]. - **Supply Side**: In the first half of 2025, coking coal supply was loose due to relaxed production control policies. After the central government's policies and inspections in July, the growth of coking coal production was curbed. It is predicted that the cumulative production of coking coal (for steel use) in 2025 will reach 438 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [8]. - **Import Side**: In the first half of 2025, coking coal imports decreased significantly. In the second half, imports gradually increased. It is predicted that the cumulative coking coal imports in 2025 will reach 116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. Mongolia's coking coal imports showed a trend of low in the first half and high in the second half, while the imports from the US and Australia decreased [35]. - **Demand Side**: In 2025, coking coal demand increased throughout the year. It is predicted that the cumulative pig iron production will reach 921 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%, and the cumulative consumption of coking coal (for steel use) will reach 559 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% [10]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory was continuously reduced in 2025, and the inventory structure was optimized. At the beginning of the year, the inventory was at a high level, and then it gradually shifted to the middle and lower reaches [56]. 2025 Coke Market Review - **Price Trend**: The coke price also experienced a V - shaped reversal in 2025. The futures price of the main coke contract dropped by 30% in the first half and then increased by 43% in the second half. The spot price fluctuations were also lower than those of coking coal [11]. - **Supply Side**: Coke production increased slightly in 2025. Due to insufficient coking profits, coking plants adopted a production - to - order strategy. It is predicted that the cumulative coke production (for steel use) in 2025 will reach 406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7% [11]. - **Demand Side**: Coke consumption generally followed downstream demand. In 2025, the cumulative coke consumption (for steel use) is predicted to reach 398 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. However, the export situation was not optimistic, with a predicted cumulative net export of 679,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.1% [12]. - **Inventory**: The coke inventory was moderately reduced in 2025. The inventory of coking plants decreased to a low level in the second half of the year, the steel mills' inventory remained at a medium level, and the port inventory fluctuated at a medium - high level [80]. 2026 Coal Coke Supply - Demand Forecast 2026 Coking Coal Supply - Demand Forecast - **Production**: In 2026, coking coal production is likely to continue to grow moderately, but short - term supply mismatches caused by coal policies cannot be ignored. It is predicted that the cumulative production of coking coal (for steel use) in 2026 will reach 443 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [13]. - **Import**: The coking coal import situation may improve in 2026. It is predicted that the cumulative coking coal imports will reach 128 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%. Mongolia and Canada's coking coal imports are expected to increase, while the US coking coal is unlikely to enter the Chinese market [13]. - **Demand**: Coking coal consumption will continue to increase in 2026, following the growth of steel production. It is predicted that the cumulative consumption of coking coal (for steel use) in 2026 will reach 564 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [14]. 2026 Coke Supply - Demand Forecast - **Production**: Coke production may continue to grow slightly in 2026. The coking industry still faces problems such as over - capacity and low industrial concentration. It is predicted that the cumulative coke production (for steel use) in 2026 will reach 409 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [15]. - **Demand**: Coke consumption may perform relatively well in 2026. It is predicted that the cumulative coke consumption (for steel use) in 2026 will reach 403 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. However, the export scale is difficult to improve, with a predicted cumulative net export of 600,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6% [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the silicon manganese and silicon ferro markets showed a downward trend due to factors such as loose supply - demand, declining cost support, and weak downstream demand. In 2026, with loose silicon manganese capacity and no significant increase in downstream consumption, its price is expected to be suppressed. For silicon ferro, although supply - demand has a growth trend, the relatively sufficient capacity will lead to intense competition, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1][5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 Iron Alloy Market Review - Silicon manganese: In 2025, the price center of silicon manganese gradually moved down. There were price fluctuations due to factors such as manganese ore supply disturbances, coal price changes, and "anti - involution" sentiment [16]. - Silicon ferro: In 2025, the price of silicon ferro was affected by black - sector market trends, coal price changes, and "anti - involution" sentiment, showing an overall downward trend with fluctuations [17]. 2. Silicon Manganese: Loose Supply - Demand and Long - term Losses in Production Areas 2.1 Manganese Ore Imports Increase, but Port Manganese Ore Remains at a Low Level - In 2025, from January to October, the total manganese ore imports were 2687000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 235000 tons. The imports from Australia increased by 62000 tons compared with the same period in 2024. However, due to high port clearance volume, the port manganese ore inventory was at a low level for a long time [22]. 2.2 Long - term Losses in Production Areas, Relatively Restrained Silicon Manganese Output - From January to November 2025, production areas suffered long - term losses. The weekly operating rate of silicon manganese was at a low level, and by the end of November, it dropped below 40%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of silicon manganese alloy was 8.434 million tons, with a slight decline [6][56]. 2.3 Good Profits of Downstream Enterprises, Resilient Demand for Silicon Manganese - In 2025, the steel industry showed a positive trend. From January to October, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills remained above 50% for a long time. The total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 105.32 billion yuan, much higher than the same period last year. The demand for silicon manganese in major steel products remained resilient [61][63]. 2.4 High Inventory of Alloy Enterprises Suppresses Price Increase - By the end of November, the inventory of sample silicon manganese enterprises reached 368000 tons, at a high level in the same period. Although downstream enterprises replenished inventory to some extent, the high inventory of alloy enterprises still put pressure on the price [71]. 3. Silicon Ferro: Output Increases Year - on - Year, Cost Center Moves Down 3.1 Silicon Ferro Price Fluctuates at a Low Level, Alloy Enterprises Suffer Long - term Losses - Affected by loose supply - demand, the silicon ferro price was suppressed. In June, it rebounded slightly with the stabilization of coal prices, and further rose in July due to "anti - involution" sentiment, but then fluctuated downward [10]. 3.2 Resilient Downstream Demand, Slight Increase in Output - From January to October 2025, the total output of silicon ferro was 4.624 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.24%. The demand for downstream products such as metal magnesium and stainless steel was resilient [87]. 3.3 Good Profits of Steel Enterprises, Some Inventory Replenishment by Downstream Silicon Ferro Enterprises - By the end of November, the consumption of silicon ferro in major steel products increased slightly year - on - year. The output of stainless steel crude steel increased by 5.5% year - on - year, and the consumption of silicon ferro also increased. The output of metal magnesium remained stable. By the end of October, the available days of silicon ferro inventory in steel mills were 15.67 days, higher than the same period in 2024 but still at a low level in the past five years [91][99]. 4. Outlook for 2026 - It is estimated that in 2026, overseas crude steel consumption will increase by 2.0%, and production will increase by 1.0%; domestic crude steel consumption will increase by 0.1%, and production will increase by 1.4%. - Silicon manganese: The output is expected to decrease by 0.14%, domestic consumption will decrease by 0.28% (excluding state reserves), and exports will remain at a low level. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. - Silicon ferro: The output is expected to increase by 1.4% year - on - year, domestic consumption will increase by 1.7%, and exports will decrease by 4.5%. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [103][106][108].

来源：喜娜AI 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信 息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成 个人投资建议。受限于第三方数据库质量等问题，我们无法对数据的真实性及完整性进行分辨或核验， 因此本文内容可能出现不准确、不完整、误导性的内容或信息，具体以公司公告为准。如有疑问，请联 系biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 由于提供的链接内容仅涉及宏观层面的资源税政策调整信息，未包含贵金属期货、基本金属期货、能源 与航运期货、金融期货、农产品期货等具体期货市场相关动态，因此无法生成符合要求的期货市场快讯 汇总内容。 ...

编辑：令文芳 （央视财经《天下财经》）28日的数据显示，因利空基本面持续压制价格，11月纽约最活跃的可可合约 已下跌14%，本周价格一度跌破每吨5000美元，创下2024年2月以来最低水平。纽约可可期货正进入连 续第六个月下跌，这是自2017年以来最长的下跌周期。 转载请注明央视财经 ...

Report on the Glass Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The glass industry is currently in a bottom - exploring phase. Although the supply has contracted due to some enterprises' cold - repair of production lines, the overall trading atmosphere in the spot market remains weak. The downstream mainly purchases based on rigid demand, and manufacturers still face significant shipment pressure. The supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively alleviated. It is expected that the short - term market will continue to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to consider short - selling at high prices. Attention should be paid to the actual recovery of downstream orders and the implementation progress of cold - repair production lines [13][14]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of November 28, 2025, the spot market price of float glass was 1090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1041 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 29 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan/ton week - on - week [13][19]. - **Cost and Profit**: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas was - 227.27 yuan/ton, down 20.43 yuan/ton week - on - week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 4250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly average profit of using coal as fuel was 4.5 yuan/ton, down 21.29 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of using petroleum coke as fuel was - 31.48 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week [13][29][32]. - **Supply**: The weekly output of national float glass was 110.39 tons, down 0.63 tons week - on - week. The number of operating production lines was 220, down 1 week - on - week, and the operating rate was 74.51% [13][37]. - **Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 9.9 days/ton, down 0.90 days week - on - week; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 46.50%, unchanged week - on - week. From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 71982.00 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%; in October, the sales area of commercial housing was 6147.21 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.60%. In October, the production and sales of automobiles were 335.87/332.21 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.09%/8.82%; from January to October, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 2769.20/2768.70 million vehicles [13][40][43][46]. - **Inventory**: The national float glass factory inventory was 6236.2 million heavy boxes, down 94.10 million heavy boxes week - on - week; the factory inventory in the Shahe area was 424.64 million heavy boxes, down 38.96 million heavy boxes week - on - week [13][51]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Glass Basis**: As of November 28, 2025, the basis was 29 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan/ton week - on - week [13][19]. - **Glass Inter - month Spread**: As of November 28, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread was - 112 yuan/ton (+35), the 05 - 09 spread was - 56 yuan/ton (+22), the 09 - 01 spread was 168 yuan/ton (- 57), and the open interest reached 192.57 million lots [22]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Float Glass Profit and Cost**: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas was - 227.27 yuan/ton, down 20.43 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of using coal as fuel was 4.5 yuan/ton, down 21.29 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of using petroleum coke as fuel was - 31.48 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week [29][32]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Glass Production and Operating Rate**: As of November 28, 2025, the national float glass weekly output was 110.39 tons, down 0.63 tons week - on - week, the number of operating production lines was 220, down 1 week - on - week, and the operating rate was 74.51% [37]. - **Glass Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 9.9 days/ton, down 0.90 days week - on - week; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 46.50%, unchanged week - on - week. The real - estate and automobile market data are as mentioned above [40][43][46]. 3.5 Inventory As of November 28, 2025, the national float glass factory inventory was 6236.2 million heavy boxes, down 94.10 million heavy boxes week - on - week; the factory inventory in the Shahe area was 424.64 million heavy boxes, down 38.96 million heavy boxes week - on - week [51]. Report on the Soda Ash Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the previously overhauled soda ash production facilities were gradually restarted, and the industry's operating load increased slightly. The mainstream soda ash market maintained on - demand sales, and the inventory decreased slightly. The supply of light soda ash was locally tight, and the demand was relatively stable; the demand for heavy soda ash was weak due to the decline in the downstream glass industry's operation. In general, the soda ash market's quotation remained firm due to cost support and pending orders, and the overall trading atmosphere was mild. It is expected that the soda ash price will remain stable in the short term, but it is still recommended to take a bearish view until the demand side shows significant improvement [62][63]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of November 28, 2025, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1146 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton week - on - week; the closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1176 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was - 30 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [62][68]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 118.5 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 220 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 822 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 4250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2446 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton week - on - week [62][79][82]. - **Supply**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 69.82 tons, down 2.27 tons week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.08%. The output of heavy soda ash was 38.31 tons, down 1.31 tons week - on - week; the output of light soda ash was 31.51 tons, down 0.96 tons week - on - week [62][90][93]. - **Demand**: As of November 28, 2025, the national float glass weekly output was 110.39 tons, down 0.63 tons week - on - week, the number of operating production lines was 220, down 1 week - on - week, and the operating rate was 74.51%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in October reached 313 tons [62][96]. - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the soda ash factory inventory was 158.74 tons, down 5.70 tons week - on - week; the inventory available days were 13.16 days, down 0.47 days week - on - week. The heavy soda ash factory inventory was 84.68 tons, down 4.05 tons week - on - week; the light soda ash factory inventory was 74.06 tons, down 1.65 tons week - on - week [62][101][104]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Soda Ash Basis**: As of November 28, 2025, the basis was - 30 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [62][68]. - **Soda Ash Inter - month Spread**: As of November 28, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread was - 55 yuan/ton (+14), the 05 - 09 spread was - 69 yuan/ton (- 2), the 09 - 01 spread was 124 yuan/ton (- 12), and the open interest reached 192.57 million lots [71]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Soda Ash Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 118.5 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 220 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton week - on - week [79]. - **Raw Material Cost**: The price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 822 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 4250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2446 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton week - on - week [82][85]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Soda Ash Production**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 69.82 tons, down 2.27 tons week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.08%. The output of heavy soda ash was 38.31 tons, down 1.31 tons week - on - week; the output of light soda ash was 31.51 tons, down 0.96 tons week - on - week [90][93]. - **Soda Ash Demand**: As of November 28, 2025, the national float glass weekly output was 110.39 tons, down 0.63 tons week - on - week, the number of operating production lines was 220, down 1 week - on - week, and the operating rate was 74.51%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in October reached 313 tons [96]. 3.5 Inventory As of November 28, 2025, the soda ash factory inventory was 158.74 tons, down 5.70 tons week - on - week; the inventory available days were 13.16 days, down 0.47 days week - on - week. The heavy soda ash factory inventory was 84.68 tons, down 4.05 tons week - on - week; the light soda ash factory inventory was 74.06 tons, down 1.65 tons week - on - week [101][104].

Core Viewpoint - Platinum futures experienced a significant increase of 4.5% within the day, reaching a price of $1,657 per ounce [1] Group 1 - The rise in platinum futures indicates a positive market sentiment towards the metal, potentially driven by supply-demand dynamics or macroeconomic factors [1] - The current price level of $1,657 per ounce reflects a notable movement in the commodities market, which may attract investor interest [1] - This increase could signal a shift in investment strategies, with investors possibly looking to diversify into precious metals like platinum [1]

人民财讯11月28日电，截至发稿，纯碱期货主力合约跌近2%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs at the bottom, but the upward drive is suppressed by inventory. It is expected to fluctuate within a certain range. The operating range of rebar may be between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton, and that of hot-rolled coil may be between 3,100 - 3,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption. The risk lies in the possible negative feedback caused by the decline in the profit rate of steel enterprises [3] - Recently, iron ore prices have been running strongly, and the short - term trend is dominated by coking coal. The weakening of coking coal prices due to domestic supply - guarantee and price - stabilization policies and the resumption of Mongolian coal shipments provides support for iron ore prices by repairing steel mill profits. The short - term fundamentals of iron ore are balanced, with high - level fluctuations in shipments and stable hot metal production. The structural shortage of medium - grade ore resources leads to tight deliverable resources, strong spot prices, and a widening basis. Macroeconomically, the expectation of a US interest rate cut has been revised, increasing the expectation of a December rate cut, leading to a stock market rebound and a recovery in market risk appetite [22] - The main coking coal contract has been continuously hitting new lows recently, and the support at the lower edge of the shock range is being tested. If it is broken, the wide - range shock pattern that has lasted for a quarter may end. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are weakening. The domestic mine production is stable. The import of Mongolian coal is at a high level, and seaborne coal also has a price advantage, resulting in a marginal relaxation of the overall coking coal supply. On the demand side, due to the high spot price and the increasing expectation of coke price cuts, downstream procurement is cautious, leading to a marginal accumulation of upstream mine inventory. In the short term, the spot price will still be under pressure. In the medium - term, the bottom support for coking coal is relatively clear. On the one hand, there is still a rigid demand for winter storage, and price corrections will stimulate restocking demand. On the other hand, the macro - policy expectations in the first year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" and the "anti - deflation" policy will build a bottom support for far - month contracts [31] - Ferroalloys are facing the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand. With the impact of supply - guarantee policies on coking coal prices, the cost center may shift downwards. However, the supply side maintains a trend of production cuts, so the downward space for ferroalloys is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [47] - Soda ash is mainly priced based on cost. Although the cost - side expectation is solid, the valuation lacks upward elasticity without a trend - like production cut. The medium - and long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high. Photovoltaic glass has started to accumulate inventory at a low level, with relatively stable daily melting. The balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. In October, soda ash exports exceeded 210,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continues to relieve domestic pressure to some extent. The high inventory of the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price of soda ash [60] - Unexpected cold repairs of glass production lines have begun to increase, and the expectation of cold repairs in December has resurfaced, but the implementation is to be determined, which will definitely affect the pricing and expectation of far - month contracts. However, the near - month 01 contract will still follow the reality (delivery logic), and the key is whether there is still an expectation of price cuts in Hubei. In reality, the glass spot market is weak, with continuous price cuts in Hubei and Shahe, and the inventory of futures, cash, and traders in Shahe and Hubei remains high. With the arrival of the off - season, the spot market is under great pressure and is prone to negative feedback. Currently, the position of the glass 01 contract is at a high level, and the game may continue until near the delivery [84] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3,110 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 3,117 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the 10 contract was 3,154 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3,302 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the 05 contract was 3,288 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 10 contract was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The rebar 01 - 05 spread was - 7 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day; the hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 spread was 14 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [4] - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The rebar summary price in China on November 28, 2025, was 3,291 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day. The 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 140 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was - 12 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [9][11] - **Other Ratios**: The 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4 on November 28, 2025, unchanged from the previous day; the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 2, also unchanged [19] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 794 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 768 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 09 contract was 743.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan. The 01 basis was - 0.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan [23] - **Fundamental Data**: The daily average hot metal production on November 28, 2025, was 234.68 thousand tons, down 1.6 thousand tons from the previous week. The 45 - port desilting volume was 3.3058 million tons, up 0.66 million tons from the previous week. The global shipment volume was 3.2784 billion tons, down 238 million tons from the previous week [26] Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads and Ratios**: On November 28, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 154 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan from the previous day; the coke 09 - 01 spread was 223 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The盘面 coking profit was - 50 yuan/ton, down 20.422 yuan from the previous day [35] - **Spot Prices and Profits**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal on November 28, 2025, was 1,580 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan from the previous week. The spot price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1,480 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The immediate coking profit was 38 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day [36] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On November 27, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 60 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan from the previous day. The silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was 36 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [48] - **Silicon Manganese**: On November 27, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 224 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the previous day. The silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was - 50 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [49] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1,235 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1,303 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the 01 contract was 1,177 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was - 68 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [61] - **Spot Prices and Spreads**: The heavy soda ash market price in North China on November 28, 2025, was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The difference between heavy and light soda ash in North China was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [61] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1,170 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1,223 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 01 contract was 1,053 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was - 53 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [85] - **Daily Sales Data**: On November 27, 2025, the sales rate in Shahe was 229, in Hubei was 174, in East China was 110, and in South China was 103 [86]