Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the Federal Reserve and potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Potential Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair**: The Trump administration is considering Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, and Christopher Waller as potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, all of whom are Republicans with economic backgrounds and prior experience at the Federal Reserve [1][3][4]. 2. **Divergent Economic Outlooks**: The three candidates have differing views on the U.S. economic outlook. Hassett is the most optimistic, believing Trump's policies will drive growth without rising inflation. Warsh sees the economy as fundamentally strong, while Waller aligns with Federal Reserve officials, indicating a moderate economic slowdown [5]. 3. **Policy Preferences on Interest Rates**: All three candidates generally favor continued interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction. Hassett is the most dovish, advocating for rate cuts to stimulate growth, while Warsh takes a hawkish stance, suggesting that balance sheet reduction should precede rate cuts [6][7]. 4. **Impact of Fiscal Policy on Bond Yields**: U.S. fiscal issues, particularly the proposed tax cuts, are expected to significantly increase the net deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next decade, contributing to high U.S. Treasury yields [8]. 5. **Historical Concerns on Fiscal Expansion**: Past Federal Reserve Chairs have expressed concerns about fiscal sustainability, emphasizing the need for budget balance and prioritizing anti-inflation goals during non-crisis periods [9]. 6. **Candidates' Views on Fiscal Deficits**: Warsh and Waller believe that excessive fiscal expansion is unsustainable, but they assert that debt repayment is not the Federal Reserve's responsibility. Hassett, due to his current role in the White House, has been less vocal on monetary policy [10]. 7. **Upcoming Changes in Monetary Policy Framework**: The Federal Reserve is expected to revise its monetary policy framework in late summer 2025, potentially reverting to a 2% inflation target, which could influence future rate cuts [11][18]. 8. **Differences in Current Economic Environment**: The current economic environment differs from that of 2020, with higher interest rates and elevated long-term inflation expectations, which may affect the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [13][15]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Independence of the Federal Reserve**: Regardless of who becomes the next Chair, maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve is likely to remain a priority for the candidates [10]. 2. **Potential Economic Consequences of Policy Decisions**: Continuing to follow an average inflation target could lead to unnecessary cooling of the job market, potentially increasing unemployment rates [14][17]. 3. **Flexibility in Monetary Policy Operations**: The current higher interest rate environment provides policymakers with greater flexibility in monetary policy operations compared to the previous low-rate environment [16].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction has garnered significant market attention, with notable internal disagreements among officials regarding the policy path, leading to an increased probability of interest rate cuts in July [1] - Research indicates that certain members, such as Waller and Bowman, support a July rate cut under specific conditions, while hawkish representative Harker remains cautious about rate cuts within the year [1] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari anticipates two rate cuts this year, with the first cut potentially occurring in September, while also warning about the lagging impact of tariffs on inflation and emphasizing the need for policy flexibility [1] Group 2 - The ongoing tariff discussions have been pushing inflation expectations higher, with May data exceeding expectations, further reinforcing the Fed's stance of maintaining higher rates for a longer duration [1] - Based on data analysis, the outlook for gold is considered bearish in the upcoming week [1]

张尧浠：避险减弱降息升温、黄金走低下方空间有限 黄金市场上周：国际黄金再度回落走低收跌，并收线至5-10周均线下方，打破了近数周的震荡上趋势支撑，同时附图指标信号高位死叉看空发展，暗示后 市将有望继续走低进一步触及中轨线支撑或更低的目标。 具体走势上，金价自周初开于3389.20美元/盎司，变先行录得当周高点3395.88美元，之后遇阻回落，周二进一步走低一度触及3300美元下方，虽周三周四 止跌震荡回升，但多头力度未能持稳加强重返阻力上方，使得周五时段再度面临抛售压力，并跌破60日均线支撑，录得当周低点3256.07美元，最终有所 止跌回升，收于3273.18美元，周振幅139.81美元，收跌116.02美元，跌幅3.42%。 影响上，受周末地缘局势的升级而高开，但动力未能持续，其特朗普称伊以将实现全面停火，以及后续市场对于中东局势认为是在"表演"而避险情绪反应 减弱，再加上鲍威尔暗示他将抵制7月降息，称在考虑降息前需要更多时间，打压金价转回落连续走低； 虽然受到60日均线支撑附近的买盘推动，以及特朗普表示将在三四人中选出下任美联储主席，令市场普遍预期美联储将很快恢复其降息周期，有所止跌震 荡，但受到技术阻 ...

特朗普力推的万亿减税计划需发行天量国债，而当前4.25%-4.5%的基准利率使得融资成本高企。特朗普 表示，降息能为政府节省"数十亿美元"。 特朗普指责鲍威尔，传递出什么信号？ 文/ 《清华金融评论》 王茅 特朗普强调， 希望任命"愿意降息"的新主席，称 降息能为政府节省"数 十亿美元"。特朗普对美联储事务"横加干涉"，短期内会导致资本市场震 荡， 长期政策可信度受损。不过，根据当前的经济数据和美联储官员的 最新表态，美联储可能在 202 5年9月启动降息。 近日，特朗普公开宣称希望美联储主席鲍威尔辞职，他指责鲍威尔"固执"且"拒绝降息"，强调希望任 命"愿意降息"的新主席。特朗普希望鲍威尔"下台"，特朗普要求美联储立即降息1-2.5个百分点，这个幅 度远高于市场预期。 特朗普的态度至少传递出以下两个核心信号：一是政策分歧公开化。特朗普对鲍威尔的态度，反映其试 图通过人事更迭推动宽松货币政策，以配合其减税计划（需要低利率以降低发债成本），并实现中期选 举前的经济刺激目标。 二是美联储独立性受挑战。若鲍威尔被迫提前离任，将打破美国总统通常等待任期结束再提名继任者的 惯例。美联储前官员警告，此举可能催生"影子美联 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the interest rate remained in a box - shaped oscillation pattern with a slight upward trend. The key factor affecting the bond market is still the tightness of the capital market. Determining the timing of the next interest rate cut or the fermentation of the interest rate cut expectation is crucial for the downward breakthrough of bond yields. Before the Politburo meeting at the end of July, the probability of interest rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts is low. The 10 - year treasury bond yield will oscillate within the range of 1.6% - 1.7%, and investors can actively deploy when it is near the upper limit of the range [2][18]. - This week, the 2 - year US Treasury yield dropped by about 15bp, and the 10 - year yield dropped by about 7 - 8bp. The US Treasury still has strong allocation attractiveness. It is recommended to appropriately shorten the portfolio duration. The US real - estate market shows a continuous weakening trend under the high - interest - rate environment. The consumer confidence index has rebounded, and the number of initial jobless claims has decreased, while the number of continued jobless claims has reached a new high since November 2021. The Fed will wait and see economic data before deciding on policy adjustments [3][20]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - week Views - **10 - year Treasury Bond Yield in China**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond rose from 1.638% to 1.646%, an increase of 0.8bp. The yield was affected by multiple factors such as international events, capital market operations, and macro - economic data announcements during the week [1][13]. - **Analysis of the Second - quarter Meeting of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee**: Compared with the first - quarter meeting, the assessment of the economic situation is more positive, and the attitude towards policy implementation is less urgent. The statement has changed from "choosing the opportunity to cut the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rate" to "flexibly grasping the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation." Before the Politburo meeting at the end of July, the probability of interest rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts is low [2][18]. - **US Treasury Yield and Related Data**: This week, the 2 - year US Treasury yield dropped by about 15bp, and the 10 - year yield dropped by about 7 - 8bp. The US real - estate market is weak, the consumer confidence index has rebounded, and the Fed will wait and see economic data before policy adjustment [3][20]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Aggregation - **Liquidity Tracking**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the central bank's open - market net investment was 10,672 billion yuan. The money - market interest rate and the issuance volume of interest - rate bonds have changed. The yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds have also shown different trends [32]. - **Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking**: The total commercial - housing transaction area has increased. Steel prices have decreased, while LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices have generally increased. The prices of coking coal and thermal coal, the inter - bank certificate of deposit interest rate, the Yu'E Bao yield, the vegetable price index, the RJ/CRB commodity price index, and the crude - oil price have all shown corresponding changes [55][57]. 3.3 One - week Review of Local Bonds - **Primary - market Issuance Overview**: From June 23 to June 29, 2025, 161 local bonds were issued in the primary market, with an issuance amount of 641.64 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 81.288 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 560.352 billion yuan. The issuance was mainly concentrated in 17 provinces and cities, with Shanghai, Hebei, and Beijing ranking in the top three in terms of issuance volume [69]. - **Secondary - market Overview**: This week, the stock of local bonds was 51.74 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 514.13 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.99%. The top three provinces with active trading were Shandong, Jiangsu, and Sichuan. The top three active trading maturities were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y. The maturity yields of local bonds generally increased [88]. - **Local - bond Issuance Plan for this Month**: No specific content provided. 3.4 One - week Review of the Credit - bond Market - **Primary - market Issuance Overview**: This week, 345 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 307.984 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 309.967 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of - 19.83 billion yuan. Among them, the net financing amount of urban investment bonds was - 137.72 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 117.89 billion yuan [95]. - **Issuance Interest Rate**: The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and corporate bonds have changed to different extents this week [109]. - **Secondary - market Transaction Overview**: This week, the total credit - bond trading volume was 697.213 billion yuan. The trading volume of each type of bond varied by rating [110]. - **Maturity Yield**: The maturity yields of national development bank bonds, short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds have changed to different extents this week [112][114][115][117]. - **Credit Spread**: This week, the credit spreads of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes generally narrowed, those of enterprise bonds generally narrowed, and those of urban investment bonds generally widened [118][121][126]. - **Grade Spread**: This week, the grade spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally narrowed [131][134][138]. - **Trading Activity**: This week, the top five most actively traded bonds in each type are listed. The industrial industry had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, reaching 412.071 billion yuan [143].

文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强 大的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操作建议，投 资有风险，盈亏自负。 从黄金4小时来看，黄金周五冲高回落，日线收十字星。虽此前有小阳线，但反弹乏力且无持续性，未形成有 效突破，显示自3452高点以来的调整未结束，日内仍有下行空间。当前呈阴跌态势，不宜等大幅反弹后做 空，反弹过大会减弱下跌动能。周五亚市早盘金价续跌逼近3280支撑位，该区域支撑密集，直接追空风险 大。综上所述，下周黄金翁富豪建议维持反弹做空策略：反弹至3297-3302区间做空，止损3310，目标3290- 3270。 本周美联储货币政策动向成为市场焦点，多位官员的公开表态显示其内部在政策路径上存在显著分歧，7月降 息可能性显著增加。最新研究报告指出，理事沃勒和鲍曼在特定条件下支持7月降息，而鹰派代表哈克则对年 内降息持审慎立场。明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利最新表态：预计美联储年内实施两次降息，首次降息窗 口或在9月开启；同时警示关税对通胀的滞后效应，强调政策制定需保持灵活性。年内关税言论持续推升通胀 ...

贝森特表示："主席人选有可能在明年1月获得任命，这意味着提名可能在10月或11月进行。"鲍威尔作 为美联储理事的任期将持续到2028年。 美国总统唐纳德.特朗普表示，他将选择一位愿意降息的人接替杰罗姆.鲍威尔担任美联储主席，这一条 件将严重损害美联储的独立性。 特朗普周五表示："如果我认为某人会维持利率不变或者怎样，我就不会选他。我会选那些想要降低利 率的人。这样的人有很多。" 特朗普因美联储决定维持利率不变而加大了对鲍威尔的批评力度。特朗普表示："如果他想辞职，我很 乐意。"他称这位央行行长不支持降息，是"一头顽固的骡子，一个愚蠢的人"。 特朗普对美联储施加压力，要求其降息，并多次抨击鲍威尔，认为美联储的政策导致政府借贷成本过 高。 鲍威尔的主席任期将持续到明年5月。特朗普曾表示，他心中有三到四个人可以接替鲍威尔的职位，但 美国财政部长斯科特.贝森特淡化了特朗普提前提名下任美联储主席的猜测。 贝森特周五表示，特朗普可能提前在今年晚些时候宣布提名人选——考虑到理事会的下个空缺席位将在 明年1月出现——目的是让提名人担任主席职务。 美联储上周维持利率在4.25%-4.5%的区间不变，该利率自年初以来一直维持在这 ...

周五，美国总统特朗普再骂美联储主席鲍威尔。近日，由于美联储未在6月会议上降息，特朗普对鲍威 尔和美联储理事会的攻击频率多且言辞尖锐。 他在周五当天先是重复以前的观点，称如果鲍威尔降息，融资成本就会更加便宜。 几小时后他又表示，希望美联储主席鲍威尔辞职。"如果他想辞职，我会非常高兴。"他还称鲍威尔是一 个固执的骡子和一个愚蠢的人。 特朗普说，他将挑选一位希望降息的人，作为鲍威尔的继任者。"如果我认为某人会维持目前的利率水 平，或无所作为，我是不会任命他的。我会任命一个想要降息的人，这样的人很多。" 分析指出，特朗普提到的希望降息这一条件直接触及美联储的独立性核心。 贝森特淡化特朗普可能提前提名美联储主席的猜测 周五同日，美国财政部长贝森特淡化了有关特朗普可能提前提名下一任美联储主席的猜测。他指出，一 种可能的时间安排是今年10月或11月公布人选。在周五接受媒体采访时，当被问及特朗普是否可能任命 一位所谓的"影子美联储主席"时，贝森特表示："我认为现在没有人在真正讨论这个问题。" 贝森特指出，明年初美联储理事会将有两个职位空缺：库格勒（Adriana Kugler）的任期将在明年1月结 束，而鲍威尔的美联储主席任 ...

美国总统特朗普：我希望美联储主席鲍威尔辞职。 我将让某位"希望降息"的人来担任美联储主席。 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump stated that if Powell lowers interest rates, financing costs will become cheaper [1] Group 1 - The potential for lower interest rates could lead to increased borrowing and investment opportunities for companies [1] - A decrease in financing costs may stimulate economic growth and consumer spending [1]