Group 1 - Norway's unexpected interest rate cut highlights increasing investor anxiety amid geopolitical tensions, trade risks, and a volatile dollar, complicating global monetary policy and inflation predictions [1] - The Swiss National Bank also reduced borrowing costs to 0%, indicating a bleak global outlook, which surprised some market participants [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with Chairman Powell acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding future rate paths, contributing to market volatility [1] Group 2 - Investors anticipate rising volatility due to geopolitical disruptions affecting the dollar and oil prices, diminishing central banks' ability to provide clear future guidance [2] - European central banks are diverging from the Fed, struggling to navigate a new era where the dollar has become weaker and more unstable under trade war pressures [3] - The dollar has declined nearly 9% against other major currencies this year, with a recent uptick following conflicts between Israel and Iran [3] Group 3 - The unexpected rate cuts from central banks may lead to a new normal characterized by increased market volatility and rapid shifts in asset pricing and narratives [3] - The Swiss franc has appreciated significantly as investors seek non-dollar wealth storage, impacting import costs and pushing the economy towards deflation [4] - The Swiss franc rose against the dollar as traders deemed the Swiss National Bank's rate cut insufficient to combat deflation [5] Group 4 - Global equity market risks are rising, with options products designed to mitigate upcoming volatility appearing relatively cheap [6] - There is a focus on purchasing bonds from countries where inflation and interest rates may significantly decline, while maintaining a negative outlook on long-term U.S. and German bonds due to higher economic uncertainty [6] - Despite concerns, global equity markets remain nearly 20% higher than their lows in April, indicating resilience amid tariff-related worries [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have shown a weak adjustment pattern, influenced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with expectations of only two rate cuts by the end of 2025 [2][4] - The recent price drop reached a low of 3342, with a critical support level at this point, indicating potential for further declines if broken [2][4] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook, with MACD showing a death cross formation and downward momentum [4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have experienced a weekly increase of 3.9%, despite a slight pullback on Friday, driven by geopolitical risks, particularly tensions between Israel and Iran [5][6] - The current focus in the oil market has shifted from supply-demand fundamentals to geopolitical risks, with potential for significant price volatility if conflicts escalate [5] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish medium-term trend, with MACD showing strong upward momentum, although short-term fluctuations are expected [6]

2025 年 6 月 20 日 股指期货将偏弱震荡 原油、燃料油、PTA 期货将偏强震 荡 黄金、螺纹钢、铁矿石、玻璃期货将震荡整理 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏弱震荡：IF2509 阻力位 3778 和 3794 点，支撑位 3751 和 3724 点；IH2509 阻力位 2623 和 2632 点，支撑位 2605 和 2590 点；IC2509 阻力位 5520 和 5572 点，支撑位 5455 和 5403 点；IM2509 阻力位 5816 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of England decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% with a vote of 6 to 3, aligning with expectations [1] - The Bank has lowered interest rates four times since August of the previous year, indicating a gradual easing of monetary policy [1] - The latest inflation data showed a 3.4% year-on-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May, slightly below the previous value of 3.5% [1] Group 2 - The Bank of England emphasized the need for a cautious approach to monetary policy, considering the ongoing economic outlook and inflation [1][2] - Global uncertainties, particularly due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East, have led to rising energy prices, which the committee is closely monitoring [2] - The Bank's decision-making is influenced by external factors such as U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical risks [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has slightly shifted towards a hawkish stance, indicating greater concern over rising inflation than slowing growth, while Chairman Powell advises caution regarding this outlook [1][2]. Economic Forecasts - The revised economic forecasts from the Federal Reserve suggest an expected increase in unemployment and inflation rates in the coming quarters, alongside a slowdown in economic growth, with rising "stagflation" risks [1][2]. - The cumulative GDP growth rate forecast for 2025-2027 has been lowered by approximately 1.25 percentage points compared to the previous December estimate, while the cumulative inflation rate is projected to be about 1 percentage point higher [2]. Interest Rate Expectations - Despite balancing growth and inflation risks, Federal Reserve officials have lowered the interest rate cut expectations for the next two years by 25 basis points, indicating a higher "terminal" rate [2]. - This hawkish inclination may be aimed at managing sentiment, as recent surveys show consumer inflation expectations have surged to their highest levels in decades [2]. Motivations Behind Hawkish Stance - The Federal Reserve's previous misjudgment during the inflation surge of 2021-2022 has led to a desire to avoid repeating past mistakes, contributing to the current hawkish approach [3]. - Ongoing fiscal and institutional risks in the U.S., including persistent budget deficits and rising debt burdens, are influencing the decision to maintain higher long-term policy rates [3]. - Public criticism from former President Trump regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies may also be prompting the Fed to assert its independence [3]. Uncertainty in Decision-Making - The Federal Reserve is currently facing significant uncertainty regarding future economic conditions, which is unique compared to other countries [5]. - Chairman Powell's approach appears to be one of waiting to see the effects of Trump's tariff policies before making further decisions, reflecting a rationale for inaction in a seemingly healthy economy [6]. - The usefulness of the Federal Reserve's "dot plot" for interest rate predictions is being questioned, as there is a lack of confidence in the projected paths due to high uncertainty [6]. Future Outlook - The next revision of economic forecasts by the Federal Reserve is expected in September, when the impacts of tariffs, Middle Eastern tensions, and the U.S. fiscal outlook should become clearer [6].

五矿期货：紧盯鲍威尔转向时点 贵金属以暂时观望为主 今晨，特朗普暂缓对于伊朗的空袭决定，海外地缘政治风险出现阶段性缓和。白宫新闻秘书回应关于中 东局势的相关问题，表示美国政府近期将很有可能与伊朗展开谈判，美国总统特朗普将于两周内决定是 否对于伊朗采取军事行动。美国政府的表态令市场对于伊以局势的风险定价有所回落，黄金价格短期将 会承压。 中国 5 月消费增长强劲，但投资和工业生产有所放缓，经济增长整体稳健，短期有助于提振国内风险偏 好；但是，短期中东地缘政治紧张局势以及美联储偏鹰的政策声明打压国内风险偏好。 英国央行以比预期更分裂的投票结果将利率维持在4.25%不变，九人货币政策委员会中，六名成员投票 支持维持利率不变。外部委员丁格拉、泰勒以及副行长拉姆斯登则倾向于立即降息25个基点。这一决定 使得英国央行8月可能降息25个基点的预期升温。 【机构观点】 【白银期货行情表现】 6月20日，沪银主力暂报8689元/克，跌幅达2.51%，今日沪银主力开盘价8811元/克，截至目前最高8823 元/克，最低8658元/克。 【宏观消息】 中东紧张局势升级以及对美国可能介入的担忧令市场感到不安；以及美联储鹰派立场导致美 ...

原油成品油早报 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/06/13 | 72.98 | 74.23 | 69.93 | 0.73 | 1.43 | -1.25 | 2.48 | 222.76 | 19.33 | 235.87 | 24.84 | | 2025/06/16 | 71.77 | 73.23 | 69.34 | 1.09 | 1.24 | -1.46 | 2.90 | 221.99 | 20.01 | 239.33 | 27.29 | | 2025/06/17 | 74.84 | 76.45 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for various energy and chemical products, including "oscillating", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating weakly", etc., which can be used as a reference for the investment outlook of individual products [266]. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is in a complex situation. Chemical products generally follow the strong trend of crude oil. The geopolitical risk between Iran and Israel has intensified, leading to increased volatility in crude oil prices, which in turn affects the prices of downstream chemical products [1][2]. - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical sector is a strong - oscillating trend, and a long - short allocation strategy is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On June 19, SC2508 closed at 570.9 yuan/barrel, up 3.29%, and Brent2508 closed at 78.74 dollars/barrel, up 3.5%. - Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East dominate short - term oil price fluctuations. Although there have been attacks on energy infrastructure, there has been no substantial impact on crude oil production. Oil prices are expected to oscillate with high volatility [6]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - The main asphalt futures closed at 3695 yuan/ton. Spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3770 yuan/ton, 3990 yuan/ton, and 3800 yuan/ton respectively. - Due to the escalation of the Iran - Israel geopolitical situation, asphalt prices have a geopolitical premium. However, in the medium - long term, the increase in heavy oil supply will put pressure on the asphalt cracking spread. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued [7]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3333 yuan/ton. - Geopolitical factors have led to a sharp increase in prices, but in the medium - long term, the increase in heavy oil supply will put pressure on the cracking spread. Overall, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8][9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3921 yuan/ton. - It follows the trend of crude oil. Currently, it has a low valuation and is facing various negative factors such as weak shipping demand and green energy substitution. It is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [10]. 3.1.5 LPG - On June 19, 2025, the PG 2508 contract closed at 4513 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. - Driven by rising crude oil prices, the supply pressure has been relieved, and the chemical demand has recovered. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. 3.1.6 PX - On June 19, the CFR price of PX in Taiwan, China was 904 (16) dollars/ton, and PX 2509 closed at 7094 (106) yuan/ton. - The supply capacity of Asian PX is increasing, and the support from the supply - demand fundamentals in China is weakening. Short - term fluctuations are mainly affected by crude oil. It is expected to be strong in the short term due to production cut news [12]. 3.1.7 PTA - On June 19, the spot price of PTA was 5175 (- 30) yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee was 269 (- 118) yuan/ton. - The supply - demand situation of PTA is weakening at the margin, and it follows the short - term trend of crude oil. It is expected to be strong in the short term following the cost side [12]. 3.1.8 Styrene - On June 19, the spot price of styrene in East China was 8050 (100) yuan/ton. - The future driving force is insufficient. The supply may increase, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly [11][12]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - On June 19, the price of ethylene glycol increased, and the basis weakened. - It has a low - inventory pattern and is driven by rising crude oil prices. The weekly operating rate reached a five - year high. It is expected to oscillate strongly [14][15]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - On June 19, the price of polyester short - fiber was 6800 (+ 55) yuan/ton. - The short - fiber industry has a good pattern. The rise in crude oil prices leads to a compensatory increase in the downstream industry chain. The processing fee has limited compression space. It is expected to oscillate strongly [15][16]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chip - On June 19, the price of polyester bottle chips increased with the rise of raw materials. - The processing fee is in an oscillating pattern. As production cuts are implemented, the processing fee is expected to expand. Long positions in the processing fee can be gradually arranged [17]. 3.1.12 Methanol - On June 19, the low - end spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2750 yuan/ton. - The situation in Iran provides short - term support. The inventory in ports has decreased, and coal prices have stabilized. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [20][21]. 3.1.13 Urea - On June 19, the low - end factory and market prices of urea were 1790 (+ 20) and 1820 (+ 0) respectively. - High supply continues, but the demand at home and abroad has started. The overseas supply is affected by geopolitics, leading to a sharp increase in overseas prices. It is expected to oscillate strongly [21]. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - On June 19, the mainstream spot price of LLDPE was 7400 (20) yuan/ton. - Affected by the rise in oil prices, the short - term price has rebounded. However, the fundamentals are still under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. 3.1.15 PP - On June 19, the mainstream transaction price of East China wire drawing was 7250 (30) yuan/ton. - Driven by the rise in oil prices and supported by methanol, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. 3.1.16 PVC - On June 19, the benchmark price of PVC by calcium carbide method in East China was 4840 (+ 0) yuan/ton. - Affected by the rise in energy prices, but the fundamentals are still under pressure. The cost has increased, and it is expected to oscillate [26]. 3.1.17 Caustic Soda - On June 19, the price of 50% caustic soda in Shandong was 2760 (+ 0) yuan/ton. - The supply and demand are weak in June and July. The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price follows the production - cut logic. It is expected to operate weakly [27]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of various products such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. It also shows cross - variety spreads and their change values [28]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists various products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., no specific data or analysis content is provided in the given text.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-20原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2507： 1.基本面：美国总统特朗普一直让外界猜测美国是否会加入以色列一方的战争，他表示将在未来两周内做 出决定；加拿大总理卡尼表示，如果不能在30天内与特朗普达成更广泛的贸易协议，加拿大可能会提高针 对美国产钢铁和铝的反制关税；俄罗斯最高石油官员、副总理诺瓦克表示，OPEC+产油国应继续执行增产计 划，并指出夏季需求正在上升；中性 2.基差：6月19日，阿曼原油现货价为77.31美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为76.78美元/桶，基18.15元/ 桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至6月13日当周API原油 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil market is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with the SC2508 contract showing an upward trend, and will be in a volatile state in the medium - term. The intraday view is that it will be volatile and biased towards strength [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Market Performance - The domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract closed up 2.77% to 574.5 yuan/barrel on Thursday night [5]. Market Outlook - The domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and biased - towards - strength trend on Friday [5]. Core Driving Logic - The conflict between Iran and Israel has continued to escalate this week, with missile attacks on energy facilities, increasing the premium of energy - chemical commodities. The presence of the US three - aircraft - carrier fleet and military support from other countries in the Middle East has increased the risk of conflict expansion [5]. - Merchant ships and oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz have faced increasing electronic interference, with an oil tanker collision near the strait, potentially disrupting crude oil transportation and expanding the premium space due to geopolitical risks [5].