研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 上周在伦敦黄金反弹至 4245 美元/盎司和伦敦白银接近历史记录之后，美联 储官员表态鹰派抑制了美联储降息预期，美元汇率获得提振而金银价格随之回落； 我们判断短期内美联储放缓降息步伐甚至暂停降息、中美贸易形势边际缓和等利 空因素，与地缘政治风险上升和国际贸易货币体系加速重组等利多因素相平衡， 伦敦黄金需要在 3880-4380 美元/盎司的波动区间内运行更长时间以积累再次突 破动能，目前阶段不宜过度追涨杀跌。但在中期维度，环球央行宽松、地缘政 ...

Group 1 - The Nikkei 225 index experienced a significant drop of 3.93%, marking the largest single-day decline of the year, falling below the 17,000-point threshold [3] - The semiconductor sector was heavily impacted, with major companies like Tokyo Electron seeing stock prices plummet nearly 8%, following TSMC's downward revision of its 2024 semiconductor growth forecast [3] - A widespread sell-off occurred across all 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, indicating a rare and comprehensive market collapse [3] Group 2 - Other Asian markets also faced severe declines, with the South Korean Composite Index down 1.9%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index down 1.4%, and the Singapore Straits Times Index down 1.2%, highlighting a systemic decline in investor risk appetite across the region [4] - The depreciation of the yen against the dollar, which fell below 144, further pressured export-oriented companies, illustrating the dual impact of currency fluctuations on market performance [3][4] - Geopolitical risks, including ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have significantly undermined investor confidence, prompting a retreat from emerging markets to safer assets [5] Group 3 - Recent hawkish signals from multiple Federal Reserve officials regarding potential delays in interest rate cuts or even a resumption of rate hikes have contributed to market volatility and tightened global liquidity expectations [6] - The overall bleak outlook for the global economy, exacerbated by trade tensions and sluggish growth in major economies, is shaking long-term market confidence [6] - These factors are interlinked, creating a vicious cycle where geopolitical risks raise oil prices, increasing inflationary pressures, which in turn limit central bank policy options and hinder economic recovery [6]

Core Insights - International gold and silver prices experienced a significant drop, with spot gold nearing the $4000 mark and London spot silver falling below $50 per ounce [1][6] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also been adjusted downward, marking a four-day consecutive decline since the 14th [4] Price Movements - As of the latest report, London gold is down 0.55% at $4014.40 per ounce, while Shanghai gold has decreased by 1.23% to 919.42 yuan per gram, and New York gold has fallen by 1.42% to $4016.5 per ounce [1] - Major domestic brands have reported the following prices: Chow Sang Sang at 1289 yuan per gram (down 16 yuan), Chow Tai Fook at 1288 yuan per gram (down 17 yuan), Lao Miao at 1276 yuan per gram (down 13 yuan from the previous day and down 49 yuan from the high of 1325 yuan), and Lao Feng Xiang at 1285 yuan per gram (down 8 yuan from the previous day and down 40 yuan from the high of 1325 yuan) [4] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is cautious due to diminishing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, contributing to a three-day decline in gold and silver prices [6] - Weak physical demand for gold in the Asian market has further exacerbated the price drop, with the market reacting to inconsistent signals from the Federal Reserve [6] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are facing resistance at previous highs, entering a phase of high-level fluctuations, with market participants closely monitoring economic data for indications of Federal Reserve policy direction [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, it provides specific views such as long - term holding for gold, silver, and copper; rebound - pressured for zinc; high - level pressured for lead, tin, and aluminum; weak for nickel; range - bound for industrial silicon; high - level oscillating for polysilicon; and bullish for lithium carbonate [1]. Core Views - The core view of the report is that the prices of various metals are affected by multiple factors including Fed's monetary policy, industry supply - demand relationship, and macro - economic data. Different metals have different price trends and investment strategies. For example, gold and silver are suitable for long - term value investment, while zinc is recommended for short - selling on rebounds [1]. Summary by Metal Categories Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold and silver prices fell and then oscillated due to a lack of short - term trading anchors and the amplification of negative news from Fed officials. SHFE gold dropped 2.49% and COMEX gold fell 0.96%; SHFE silver declined 3.57% and COMEX silver decreased 0.01 [2][3]. - **Underlying Logic**: Fed hawkish officials' statements reduced the probability of a December rate cut, but some supported rate cuts. There was a lack of US economic data, leading to sentiment - based trading. In the long run, gold benefits from global monetary easing, a decline in the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [4][5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term value investors should hold their positions, while short - term investors should be cautious. Short - term attention should be paid to the support levels of domestic gold at 920 and silver around 11500 [5]. Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper oscillated and declined. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract decreased by 0.10%, LME copper dropped 0.73%, and COMEX copper fell 1.20% [6][7]. - **Underlying Logic**: In October, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% month - on - month, and it is expected to decline further in November. Consumption entered the off - season, and the global copper concentrate supply remained tight. However, high copper prices restricted demand, and the global visible copper inventory was at a historically high level [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the Fed's hawkish stance, industry hedging should add option protection, reduce positions, and control risks strictly. In the long - term, copper is still optimistic. Short - term attention should be paid to the price range of Shanghai copper at [84500, 87500] yuan/ton and LME copper at [10500, 11000] US dollars/ton [8]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc oscillated weakly. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract decreased by 0.22%, and LME zinc dropped 0.83% [9][10]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas zinc mine production declined, and domestic zinc concentrate processing fees continued to fall. Consumption entered the off - season, and the domestic zinc ingot export window opened. Zinc was in a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to the Fed's hawkish stance and poor domestic macro - data, zinc is pressured to run weakly. In the long - term, supply is expected to increase while demand decreases. It is recommended to short on rebounds. Attention should be paid to the price range of Shanghai zinc at [22000, 22500] and LME zinc at [2950, 3050] US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices were pressured to decline, and alumina stabilized at a low level. The price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 0.53%, and LME aluminum dropped 0.38% [12][13]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased, and domestic production remained high. The destocking of aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas slowed down, and demand entered the off - season. The alumina market was in an oversupply situation in the short term [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short term, paying attention to the change in aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [21200 - 22000] [15]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices continued to weaken, and stainless steel rebounded at a low level. The price of the Shanghai nickel main contract decreased by 0.11%, and LME nickel dropped 0.40% [16][17]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas Fed's year - end rate - cut expectation weakened. Global refined nickel inventory reached a five - year high. The stainless steel market entered the off - season, and downstream demand was weak [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits gradually on dips for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [115000 - 117000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2601 opened high and closed at the daily limit, with significant position - increasing and upward movement [21]. - **Underlying Logic**: The supply - demand situation remained tight, with total inventory decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks and the decline accelerating. Terminal market demand was strong, and the impact of supply resumption was weakened [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Existing long positions should take profits on rallies, and new positions should wait for opportunities to go long during pullbacks or sideways consolidation in the range of [92000 - 99000] [23].

Core Insights - The Australian sovereign wealth fund warns that the risks of global economic shocks are increasing, prompting it to increase holdings in gold, actively managed equities, and hedge funds as potential buffers [1] - The fund, managing approximately AUD 261 billion, has adjusted its investment processes to address what it perceives as "new types of shock risks" that may occur more frequently and severely in the global economy [1] Investment Strategy Adjustments - The report highlights geopolitical, economic, policy, and structural market changes pointing towards a future filled with conflict, fiscal intervention, and inflationary pressures [1] - It notes a more aggressive active management strategy in Australian small-cap stocks and Japanese equities, emphasizing that in an environment of high inflation and geopolitical risks, the ability of managers to deliver better returns will be more pronounced [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues to trade sideways, with olefins showing weakness and aromatics presenting a slightly stronger pattern. [4] - The current oversupply situation in the crude oil market persists, but geopolitical factors and the strength of crack spreads provide some support. Oil prices are expected to trade sideways in the short term. [8] - The price of asphalt futures is expected to trade weakly due to factors such as the potential increase in production by OPEC+ in December, the end of the Israel - Palestine conflict, and the possible resumption of Russia - Ukraine talks. [9] - The prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil futures are expected to trade weakly, influenced by factors like the potential increase in production by OPEC+ and changes in supply and demand. [9][11] - Methanol prices are expected to trade sideways with a downward bias due to high inventory levels and a supply - demand imbalance. [26] - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to trade within a low - level range due to the impact of new production capacity and increasing inventory. [18][21] - The prices of other chemical products such as PX, PTA, and short - fiber are also expected to trade sideways, with their trends affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and market sentiment. [12][13][22] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The price of crude oil continues to trade sideways due to the interaction between the signs of the resumption of operations at a key Russian port and extensive geopolitical risks. The price of methanol and ethylene glycol has seen an unexpected increase in inventory. [2][3] 3.2 Variety Analysis Crude Oil - **Market News**: There are uncertainties regarding risks related to Russia and Venezuela. The resumption of oil shipments from Kazakhstan at the Novorossiysk port has been reported, and Trump may talk to Maduro. [8] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors, the relief of refined oil inventory pressure, and the strength of crack spreads provide short - term support for crude oil demand. However, the current oversupply situation and the continuous increase in inventory are difficult to change, leading to sideways price movement. [8] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply pressure persists, the crack spread points to an optimistic outlook for refinery operations, and geopolitical concerns remain, resulting in short - term sideways trading. [8] Asphalt - **Market News**: On November 17, 2025, the main asphalt futures closed at 3037 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3290 yuan/ton, 3450 yuan/ton, and 3020 yuan/ton respectively. [8] - **Main Logic**: With the potential increase in production by OPEC+ in December, the end of the Israel - Palestine conflict, and the possible resumption of Russia - Ukraine talks, as well as the cooling of the US - Venezuela situation, the asphalt futures price is trading below the 3200 - yuan pressure level. The supply - demand imbalance and high inventory pressure remain. [9] - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread of asphalt is expected to decline as the number of warehouse receipts increases. [9] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On November 17, 2025, the main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 2622 yuan/ton. [9] - **Main Logic**: With the potential increase in production by OPEC+ in December and the end of the Israel - Palestine conflict, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region may decline due to the reduction in Russian exports. However, the demand for fuel oil remains weak. [9] - **Outlook**: Geopolitical factors may cause short - term price fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine situation. [9] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On November 17, 2025, the main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3240 yuan/ton. [11] - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the movement of crude oil prices. It is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel substitution, but its current valuation is low. [11] - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to follow the movement of crude oil prices, with limited substitution demand space. [11] Methanol - **Market News**: On November 17, the spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2005 yuan/ton, and the port inventory continued to increase. [26] - **Main Logic**: The domestic methanol supply is abundant, and the import of goods has an impact on the market. The high inventory level suppresses the price, and the market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. [26] - **Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to trade within a narrow low - level range, waiting for overseas market information. [26] Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: On November 17, the domestic ethylene glycol market was adjusted sideways, and the inventory continued to increase. [18] - **Main Logic**: New production capacity has an impact on the market, and although some coal - based plants are under maintenance, the new plants are gradually coming into operation, resulting in high inventory pressure. [18][21] - **Outlook**: In the long term, the inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to trade within a low - level range. [21] Other Chemical Products - **PX**: The supply of xylene is sufficient, and the impact of blending for gasoline on PX is limited in the short term. The load of PX remains stable. [12] - **PTA**: The emotional impact has ended, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of plant changes. [13] - **Short - Fiber**: The fundamentals are weak, and the price of polyester staple fiber is expected to continue to adjust weakly. [22] - **Bottle Chip**: The trading atmosphere has declined, and it is passively following the cost. [24] - **Propylene**: The downstream trading volume has increased, and the price of PL is expected to trade sideways. [28] - **PP**: The short - term driving force is limited, and attention should be paid to the changes in maintenance. [28] - **Plastic**: The upcoming cold snap next week may boost the raw material support, and the price of plastic is expected to trade sideways. [27] - **Styrene**: The narrative of blending for gasoline has an impact, and short - sellers have reduced their positions. [17] - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, the price is expected to trade sideways. [31] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot pressure remains high, and the futures price is expected to be cautious and weak. [32] 3.3 Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Inter - Period Spread - The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, PX, PTA, and MEG are presented, showing different changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is - 24 with a change of 2. [34] 3.3.2 Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties are provided. For instance, the basis of asphalt is - 12 with a change of 15, and the number of warehouse receipts is 30110. [35] 3.3.3 Inter - Variety Spread - The inter - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA and 1 - month TA - EG are given, along with their changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is 380 with a change of 71. [37] 3.4 Index Performance - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of the commodity are presented. For example, the comprehensive index is 2254.19 with a change of - 0.24%, and the energy index on November 17, 2025, has a daily increase of 0.11%. [278][279]

Group 1 - The Japanese stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 1% and falling below 50,000 points, primarily affecting tourism and retail stocks [1][3] - Notable declines included Shiseido's stock, which fell 11%, and Pacific International Holdings, which saw an 8.9% drop, marking their largest single-day declines since April 2024 [1][3] - Major retail and tourism-related companies, such as Isetan Mitsukoshi and Uniqlo's parent company Fast Retailing, also faced substantial stock price drops, with declines exceeding 5% [3] Group 2 - The downturn in the stock market is attributed to deteriorating Sino-Japanese relations, with Chinese authorities issuing travel warnings to their citizens regarding travel to Japan [5][11] - Chinese tourists are crucial for Japan's tourism sector, accounting for nearly 20% of international visitors in 2024, with their spending representing 27% of total inbound consumption, amounting to approximately 2.1 trillion yen [7] - A significant reduction in Chinese tourists could lead to a GDP decrease of 0.36% for Japan, equating to an economic loss of about 2.2 trillion yen [7] Group 3 - Japan's economy is facing multiple challenges, including a 1.8% decline in real GDP for the third quarter, marking the first negative growth in six quarters, largely due to decreased exports and a sharp drop in private residential investment [9] - Analysts suggest that the recent travel warnings from China threaten Japan's retail sales growth, particularly for companies like Shiseido and Uniqlo, which rely heavily on Chinese consumers [11] - The Japanese government has set an ambitious target to increase annual inbound tourist numbers to 60 million by 2030, but this goal is now uncertain due to escalating political tensions with China [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ continues to increase production, demand enters the off - season, long - term supply and demand shows a bearish trend. However, short - term geopolitical factors drive up, so oil prices will fluctuate in the short term, and the long - term price center tends to decline [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA slightly raises the forecast of global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026; OPEC's October production shows a small increase, while Non - OPEC DoC's production decreases; IEA also shows a decline in OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC production in October. Overall, it is bearish [3] - **Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA lowers the forecast of global crude oil and related liquid demand growth rate; OPEC keeps the forecast unchanged; IEA slightly raises the forecast. Overall, it is neutral [3] - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: U.S. commercial crude oil inventory increases to the highest level since June 6, 2025, while Cushing crude oil inventory decreases. Different types of refined oil inventories show different changes. It is bearish [3] - **Oil - Producing Country Policies (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: OPEC+ plans to increase production slightly in December, which may intensify market supply - surplus concerns. It also agrees to suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. It is bearish [3] - **Geopolitics (Short - Term)**: Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy hubs lead to the suspension of oil exports from Novorossiysk Port, causing about 2.2 million barrels per day of supply interruption. The U.S. new sanctions on Russia bring uncertainty. It is bullish [3] - **Macro - Finance (Short - Term)**: The U.S. adjusts the scope of "reciprocal tariffs", and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is high. It is neutral [3] - **Investment Viewpoint**: Oil prices will fluctuate in the short term and the long - term price center will decline [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [3] PART TWO: Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Sanctions against Russia are further upgraded, and international oil prices fluctuate widely. This week, oil prices first fell and then rose. Geopolitical events are the direct catalyst for the rebound. As of November 14, WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil futures show different price changes [8] - **Monthly Spread & Internal - External Spread**: Near - month spreads weaken, and internal - external spreads strengthen [9] - **Forward Curve**: Near - month spreads strengthen [22] - **Cracking Spread**: Gasoline and diesel cracking spreads decline, and jet fuel cracking spreads also decline [25][35] PART THREE: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production** - Global crude oil production in October 2025 shows different trends according to EIA, OPEC, and IEA data, with an overall decline [57] - U.S. weekly crude oil production increases to 13.862 million barrels per day as of the week of November 7, and the number of active drilling rigs also increases slightly [80] - **Inventory** - U.S. commercial inventory increases by 6.413 million barrels, and Cushing inventory decreases by 346,000 barrels [81] - Northwest European crude oil inventory rises, and Singapore fuel oil inventory falls [90] - **Demand** - In the U.S., gasoline implied demand increases, and refinery operating rate rises [100] - In China, independent refinery capacity utilization shows different trends, with some regions affected by equipment failures and some rising [117] - **Refinery Profit**: In China, the gross profit of major refineries rebounds, and the gasoline and diesel cracking spreads also rebound [118] - **Macro - Finance**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December decreases, and the U.S. dollar index fluctuates [131] - **CFTC Position**: The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreases [134]

南华期货原油产业周报 —— 供应宽松压制油价，地缘与避险风险成关键 杨歆悦 投资咨询证书：Z0022518 联系邮箱：yangxy@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月17日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 上周原油呈N型波动且重心下移，当前在63-65美元震荡。上周五因俄罗斯新罗西斯克港遭袭（中断220万桶/ 日出口）油价大涨，但港口已恢复作业，需警惕盘面回落及63美元支撑位。汽柴油支撑弱化或继续回落，炼 厂开工提升的支撑有限，叠加全球原油供应高位，市场宽松格局压制油价。地缘风险短期解除，宏观面中性 但需关注资金避险情绪。中短期原油维持60-65美元低位震荡，重点留意地缘与避险风险。 地缘政治风险指数和布伦特原油 source： 南华研究,wind,彭博 地缘政治风险指数 布伦特原油期货价格连1(右轴) 美元/桶 20/12 21/12 22/12 23/12 24/12 100 200 300 400 0 50 100 150 WTI油价与波动率 source： 彭博,南华研究,同花顺 美元/桶 美国原油ETF隐含波动率(右轴) WTI原油主 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 数据确实背景之下，美联储联储鹰派官员集体横跳表态激进，同时出现流动性危机。 | | | 长线持有 | 黄金价格回落，短期大驱动较少，长线交易为主。黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确 | | ★ | | 定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 短期市场数据空白，市场交易没有锚点，全是情绪博弈，白银继续下跌。长期来看 | | | 长线持有 | 白银基本面来看全球政策刺激白银需求，供需缺口持续变，宽松货币投放提供流动 | | ★ | | 性。关注 11500 附近支撑。长线多单持有 | | | | 美联储官员放鹰，国内宏观数据不佳，亚太战争风险剧增，市场情绪谨慎，铜承压 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 回落，建议多空均降低仓位，警惕黑天鹅风险，中长期，铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求 | | ★ | | 爆发，铜依旧看多。 | | 锌 | | 宏观和板块情绪转冷，消费淡季需求疲软，锌承压偏弱运行，中长期看，锌供增需 | | ★ | 反弹承压 | 减，维持反弹逢高沽空观点。 | | 铅 ...