1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic spot market for lead is weakening, putting pressure on prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,930 yuan/ton, up 0.09%, and the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 2,016 dollars/ton, up 0.93% [1]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 28,937 lots, a decrease of 1,049 lots, and the LME lead trading volume was 5,567 lots, an increase of 1,521 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai lead main contract was 49,424 lots, a decrease of 1,799 lots, and the LME lead open interest was 153,848 lots, an increase of 1,928 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium/discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -35 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -38.73 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.23 dollars/ton [1]. - **Import and Export Profits and Losses**: The profit and loss of lead ingot spot imports was -668.04 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.37 yuan/ton; the profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous - three imports was -664.04 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.57 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventories**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 62,535 tons, an increase of 2,744 tons; the LME lead inventory was 262,225 tons, a decrease of 25 tons [1]. - **Recycled Lead**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 News - In July in China, the new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [1]. - Trump said he might appoint the next Fed chair a little earlier, and the candidates were narrowed down to three or four. Bessent believes that the US interest rate should be 150 - 175 basis points lower than the current level, and there is a high possibility of a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September [1]. 3.3 Lead Trend Intensity - The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend intensity being an integer in the [-2, 2] interval [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - A-share major indices mostly rose, with the three major indices showing divergence. The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and fluctuated, briefly falling below 3,500 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose and then declined. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.22%. Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased significantly. Sector performance varied, with the social services and automobile sectors leading the gains and the steel sector leading the losses. - Domestically, in terms of the economic fundamentals, GDP in Q2 increased by 5.2% year-on-year, meeting market expectations. However, the growth rates of social retail and fixed - asset investment declined significantly, and the real estate market continued to decline. Imports and exports improved against the backdrop of easing Sino - US trade relations. - In terms of financial data, the year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 in June accelerated compared to May, with the M1 growth rate rising significantly and the M2 - M1 gap narrowing, indicating that residents' and enterprises' willingness to invest and consume may have improved with the support of loose monetary policies. - For individual stocks, the profit situation of listed companies that have announced semi - annual performance forecasts remains good. - Overall, the real estate market still drags down fixed - asset investment growth, and the support of trade - in programs for social retail has weakened. However, financial data shows that the effects of loose monetary policies have emerged, which may be reflected in subsequent economic indicators. With the release of mid - year report performance forecasts and the approaching Politburo meeting at the end of July, the market is optimistic about the first - half earnings of listed companies, and bulls may pre - arrange. The stock index has long - term upward potential, but weak economic data in June will put short - term pressure on the market, and the market may fluctuate around the 3,500 mark. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, while the medium - to - long - term strategy is to buy on dips with a light position [5]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The prices of IF (2509), IH (2509), and IF (2507), IH (2507) contracts decreased, while the prices of IC (2509), IM (2509), IC (2507), and IM (2507) contracts increased. For example, the IF (2509) contract was at 3,971.0, down 10.4; the IM (2509) contract was at 6,298.0, up 23.2 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes. For instance, the IF - IH monthly contract spread was 1,264.4, down 5.0; the IM - IC monthly contract spread was 437.8, up 24.0 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF increased by 1,790.0 to - 27,854.00, while the net positions of the top 20 in IH decreased by 207.0 to - 14,671.00. The net positions of the top 20 in IC and IM also changed [2]. - **Futures Basis**: The basis of the IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract basis was - 36.2, up 2.3 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The prices of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices changed. The Shanghai Composite 50 was at 2,740.90, down 6.3; the CSI 1000 was at 6,462.06, up 19.2 [2]. 3.3 Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume was 146.1734 billion yuan, down 17.327 billion yuan; the margin trading balance was 189.0406 billion yuan, up 5.016 billion yuan. The north - bound trading volume was 201.657 billion yuan, up 10.454 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks was 60.49%, up 35.90 percentage points; the Shibor was 1.466%, down 0.069 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry News - **Foreign Trade**: In June, China's exports (in RMB) increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and imports increased by 2.3%. The trade surplus was 825.97 billion yuan. In the first half of the year, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 2.7%. The trade surplus was 4,212.51 billion yuan [2]. - **Social Financing**: In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 12% more than the same period last year. The net cash injection in the first half of the year was 363.3 billion yuan [2]. - **GDP**: In the first half of the year, GDP was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices. In Q1, GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and in Q2, it increased by 5.2% year - on - year. The Q2 GDP increased by 1.1% quarter - on - quarter [2][3]. - **Consumption and Industry**: In June, social consumer goods retail sales were 422.87 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, social consumer goods retail sales were 2,454.58 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year and 0.50% month - on - month. From January to June, it increased by 6.4% year - on - year [3]. - **Investment**: In the first half of 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2,486.54 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. After deducting the impact of price factors, it increased by 5.3% year - on - year. In June, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.12% month - on - month [3]. - **Real Estate**: From January to June, national real estate development investment was 466.58 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 458.51 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5%. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 442.41 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The funds available to real estate development enterprises were 502.02 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. The national real estate climate index was 93.60 [3][4]. - **Monetary Data**: At the end of June 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. At the end of June, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.18 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase [3].

Economic Data - In June, China's social financing increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans amounting to 2.24 trillion yuan, and the M2-M1 spread narrowing [1] - China's exports in June, measured in USD, grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while imports increased by 1.1% [1] - Rare earth exports reached the highest level since 2009, iron ore imports hit a year-to-date high, and steel exports in Q2 set a record [1] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index barely rose as investors awaited US inflation data [1] - Bitcoin experienced a pullback after reaching a new high [1] - Crude oil prices fell by 3% [1] Trade Relations - The EU is preparing to impose counter-tariffs on US goods worth 720 billion euros [1] - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Russia if a peace agreement regarding Ukraine is not reached within 50 days [1] Corporate Developments - Elon Musk announced that a "monumental" demonstration of the next-generation Optimus robot is expected by the end of the year [1] - Meta is planning to invest hundreds of billions to build the world's largest data center and is considering shifting from open-source to closed-source [1] Upcoming Data Releases - China is set to release significant GDP data on Tuesday, while the US will announce June CPI data on the same day [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the stock index market, the previous trading day saw declines in major indices, but with increased trading volume. Given current policies and market conditions, it is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" on dips [2][4]. - In the bond market, the central bank's liquidity injection maintains a positive attitude, and short - term bond market trends are expected to be volatile. In the long - term, with weak domestic demand recovery and loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [8]. - In the precious metals market, due to lower - than - expected US inflation data, the market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy in the second half of the year has increased, and it is recommended to maintain a long - term view on precious metals, especially silver, and go long on dips [9][12]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, different metals have different trends. For example, copper is expected to fluctuate at a high level, aluminum may rise first and then fall, zinc has a large downward risk, and lead is expected to be weak [14][15][16][17]. - In the black building materials market, steel products are affected by factors such as weak demand and tariff policies, and attention should be paid to policy changes and demand recovery. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and glass and soda ash are expected to be weak [27][29][30]. - In the energy and chemical market, rubber is affected by different views on supply and demand, and it is recommended to operate neutrally. Crude oil has reached a short - selling range, and methanol, urea, etc. have their own supply - demand characteristics and trading suggestions [39][40][43]. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of pigs, eggs, etc. have different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed according to different supply - demand situations [55][56]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - The previous trading day, major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, ChiNext Index, etc. declined, with a total trading volume of 1467.2 billion yuan, an increase of 195.4 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - The 5 - month social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, and the central bank will conduct a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on June 16. The financing amount increased by 2.387 billion yuan, and the overnight Shibor rate increased by 4.40bp to 1.411% [3]. - The basis ratios of index futures were provided, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" on dips [4]. Bond - On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose slightly [6]. - As of the end of May 2025, the social financing scale stock was 426.16 trillion yuan, and the central bank will conduct a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on June 16. The central bank achieved a net injection of 6.75 billion yuan on Friday [7]. - The central bank's liquidity injection maintains a positive attitude, and short - term bond market trends are expected to be volatile. In the long - term, interest rates are expected to decline, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [8]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold rose 0.64%, and Shanghai silver rose 0.24%. COMEX gold and silver also rose [9]. - Due to lower - than - expected US inflation data, the market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy in the second half of the year has increased, and it is recommended to maintain a long - term view on precious metals, especially silver, and go long on dips [9][12]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices rose first and then fell. The inventories of the three major exchanges decreased by 18,000 tons week - on - week. The spot import loss widened, and it is expected that copper prices will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [14]. Aluminum - Last week, aluminum prices rose. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories continued to decline, and it is expected that aluminum prices may rise first and then fall, with a near - strong and far - weak pattern [15]. Zinc - As of Friday, the zinc index fell 1.40%. Zinc ore is in an oversupply situation, and there is a large downward risk for zinc prices [16]. Lead - As of Friday, the lead index rose 0.26%. Downstream battery companies have weak consumption, and lead prices are expected to be weak [17]. Nickel - Last week, nickel prices fluctuated downward. The supply of refined nickel is in an oversupply pattern, and it is recommended to wait for a rebound and then short at high prices [18]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated. The short - term supply of tin ore is in short supply, and terminal demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [19]. Carbonate Lithium - The fundamentals of carbonate lithium have not improved substantially, and there is a large selling pressure above. It is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom in the short term [20]. Alumina - On June 13, the alumina index fell 1.45%. The alumina production capacity is in an oversupply situation, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the second half of the year [21]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless steel main contract fell 0.28%. The inventory of Qing Shan resources is high, and steel prices are under pressure, but they are expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term [22][23][24]. Black Building Materials Steel - On the previous trading day, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil both rose slightly. The demand for steel products is weak, and attention should be paid to policy changes and demand recovery [26][27]. Iron Ore - On Friday, the main contract of iron ore fell 0.14%. The supply of iron ore is increasing, the demand is weakening marginally, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [28][29]. Glass and Soda Ash - For glass, the spot price is stable, and the inventory has decreased slightly. For soda ash, the spot price is stable, and the inventory has increased slightly. Both are expected to be weak [30]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - On June 13, the main contract of manganese silicon rose 0.92%, and the main contract of ferrosilicon rose 0.50%. The demand for ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is expected to weaken, and it is not recommended to buy on the left side [31][32]. Industrial Silicon - On June 13, the main contract of industrial silicon fell 1.56%. The industrial silicon market has over - capacity and insufficient demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [35][36]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - Crude oil rose sharply, driving NR and RU to rebound. The bulls and bears have different views on the rubber market, and it is recommended to operate neutrally [39][40]. Crude Oil - As of Friday, WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose. The current geopolitical risk has been gradually released, and the oil price has reached a short - selling range [42][43]. Methanol - On June 13, the 09 - contract of methanol rose. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is difficult to improve continuously. It is recommended to wait and see after the geopolitical conflict's positive impact is realized [44]. Urea - On June 13, the 09 - contract of urea rose. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the price has returned to a low level. It is recommended to go long at a low level [45]. Styrene - The spot price of styrene is unchanged, and the futures price has risen. The short - term contradiction is the rise in naphtha prices, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly after the war stabilizes [46]. PVC - The PVC09 - contract rose. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the future [48]. Ethylene Glycol - The EG09 - contract rose. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short at a high level [49]. PTA - The PTA09 - contract rose. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to go long at a low level following PX [50]. Para - xylene - The PX09 - contract rose. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening in the short term, and it is expected to continue to destock in the third quarter. It is recommended to go long at a low level following crude oil [51]. Polyethylene (PE) - The price of polyethylene has risen. The supply pressure may be relieved in June, and it is expected to fluctuate [52]. Polypropylene (PP) - The price of polypropylene has risen. The supply will increase in June, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season. It is expected to be bearish [53]. Agricultural Products Pigs - Over the weekend, domestic pig prices rose. It is expected that pig prices will consolidate today. It is recommended to go long on near - term contracts at a low level and short on long - term contracts at a high level [55]. Eggs - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were stable. It is expected that egg prices will be stable this week. It is recommended to exit short positions at a low level and short on long - term contracts after a rebound [56]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Friday, US soybeans rose more than 2%. The domestic soybean meal spot price has increased. The US soybean production area will have good rainfall in the next two weeks. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish on far - month soybean meal contracts [57][58]. Oils and Fats - High - frequency export data shows that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase. The US bio - diesel policy draft is beyond expectations, and it is recommended to be bullish on oils and fats in the short term [59][60]. Sugar - On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fluctuated strongly. The international sugar market supply may be increasing, and the domestic sugar price is likely to weaken in the future [61][62]. Cotton - On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated narrowly. The downstream operating rate has decreased slightly, and the cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [63][64][65].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the fundamentals of aluminum and alumina, providing updated data on futures and spot markets as well as relevant economic news and trend strength indicators [1][3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The current situation of aluminum remains strong, while the focus of alumina has shifted slightly downward [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Aluminum - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,440 yuan, up 370 yuan from a week ago and down 425 yuan from three months ago - The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,503 US dollars, down 17 US dollars from the previous trading day - The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased compared to previous periods [1] 3.1.2 Alumina - The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,852 yuan, down 43 yuan from the previous trading day - The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Alumina main contract also showed significant changes compared to previous periods [1] 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Aluminum - The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 463,000 tons, showing a decreasing trend - The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 353,200 tons, also decreasing [1] 3.2.2 Alumina - The domestic average price of alumina was 3,287 yuan, down 15 yuan from the previous trading day - The import prices of alumina from different regions also had certain fluctuations [1] 3.3 Other Information - China's social financing increment in May was 2.29 trillion yuan, and the new RMB loans were 620 billion yuan - The scissors - gap between M2 and M1 narrowed - The trend strength of aluminum and alumina was both 0, indicating a neutral state [1][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts have resurfaced [2]. - Silver: Prices have fallen from high levels [2]. - Copper: Lacks a clear driving force, with prices oscillating [2]. - Aluminum: The current situation remains strong [2]. - Alumina: The price center has slightly shifted downwards [2]. - Zinc: Under pressure [2]. - Lead: Short - term supply and demand are both weak, but it can be bullish in the medium term [2]. - Tin: Tight current situation but weak future expectations [2]. - Nickel: Concerns at the ore end have cooled, and smelting supply has full elasticity [2]. - Stainless steel: Negative feedback has led to increased production cuts, with weak supply and demand and low - level oscillations [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of various gold and silver contracts showed different changes, with daily increases in gold prices and a decline in the price of Shanghai silver 2508. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, ETF holdings, and inventories [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's May social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, and geopolitical conflicts between Iran and Israel intensified [5][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both gold and silver have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral stance [8]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract decreased by 0.76%, and the London copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.44%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's May social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, and there were geopolitical conflicts between Iran and Israel. China's May copper ore imports increased year - on - year, while un - wrought copper and copper product imports decreased [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral stance [12]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai aluminum main contract and the Shanghai alumina main contract showed different trends. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads in the aluminum and alumina markets [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's May social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both aluminum and alumina have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral stance [15]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract decreased by 1.22%, and the London zinc 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.66%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In early June 2025, compared with late May, 11 types of products' prices rose, 35 declined, and 4 remained flat [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a slightly bearish stance [16]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract increased by 0.33%, and the London lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.03%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In early June 2025, compared with late May, 11 types of products' prices rose, 35 declined, and 4 remained flat [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral stance [19]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract decreased by 0.55%, and the London tin 3M electronic disk increased by 0.24%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's May social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, and there were geopolitical conflicts between Iran and Israel [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral stance [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai nickel main contract and the stainless - steel main contract decreased. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and various price spreads in the nickel and stainless - steel industries [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were issues such as potential nickel export restrictions from Canada and production resumptions and suspensions in the Indonesian nickel industry [25][26][27][28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral stance [28].

Group 1 - Middle Eastern stock markets experienced a significant decline on Sunday, while oil prices surged in early Asian trading on Monday, and gold prices increased, indicating volatility in the commodities market [1] - China's social financing increased by 2.29 trillion yuan in May, with new RMB loans amounting to 620 billion yuan and new RMB deposits nearing 2.18 trillion yuan, suggesting a tightening of the M2-M1 spread [1] - The State Council is researching measures to optimize the procurement of drugs and medical supplies, emphasizing the need to advance the construction of "good houses" [1] Group 2 - Ongoing military exchanges between Iran and Israel, with Iran considering a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, while Israel attacked Iran's largest gas field [1] - Israeli Prime Minister stated that Israel is willing to cease actions if Iran agrees to abandon its nuclear program as per U.S. demands [1] - Reports indicate a failed assassination attempt on a senior Houthi leader by Israel, which the Houthi forces denied [1] Group 3 - The UK Prime Minister announced that there are no "obstacles" remaining to finalize the US-UK trade agreement [1] - A phone call between Japan and the US agreed to accelerate ministerial-level consultations to reach a mutually beneficial agreement, with Japan stating that the deadline of July 9 for the Basent has not been extended [1] - Upcoming release of China's May industrial output and retail sales data is anticipated [1]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market experienced fluctuations in prices and inventory levels during the week of May 16, with average prices ranging from 78,155 to 78,905 CNY per ton, and macroeconomic factors influencing market sentiment [1] Price and Inventory Summary - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price fluctuated between 78,155 CNY/ton and 78,905 CNY/ton during the week, with a mid-week peak followed by a decline [1] - LME inventory decreased by 12,400 tons to 179,400 tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased by 27,400 tons to 108,100 tons [1] - Domestic social inventory rose by 8,900 tons to 132,000 tons, and bonded zone inventory decreased by 8,000 tons to 68,800 tons [1] Macroeconomic Factors - A temporary joint statement was issued by China and the U.S., with the U.S. imposing a 30% tariff on China and China maintaining a 10% tariff on the U.S. [1] - The U.S. is negotiating trade agreements with Japan and the Eurozone, leading to increased market risk sentiment, with U.S. stocks and the dollar rebounding [1] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating on Friday [1] - In April, China's social financing increased by 1.16 trillion CNY, with new RMB loans of 280 billion CNY, and M2-M1 spread widening [1] Mining and Trade Activity - Copper concentrate transaction activity increased, with frequent bidding activities from traders and smelters [1] - The Bisha project bidding results were released, with processing fees stabilizing around -40 USD, and this week's TC price reported at -43.05 USD/ton, slightly down from last week [1] - April copper concentrate imports reached a historical high, but future spot transactions are expected to be sluggish, with TC prices remaining low [1] Smelting and Import Dynamics - Imported copper arrivals slightly increased, while domestic copper arrivals were lower [1] - As copper prices rise, the willingness to sell scrap copper increases, leading to a widening gap between refined and scrap copper prices [1] Consumption Trends - Due to May delivery, monthly differences, and high copper prices, downstream purchasing has been cautious, with demand not being stimulated and only essential purchases being made, resulting in a slight increase in domestic inventory [1] Strategy Outlook - The copper market is viewed as neutral, with prices expected to fluctuate within a range of approximately 75,000 CNY/ton to 79,500 CNY/ton in the coming week [1] - Arbitrage activities are on hold, with options positioned as short put at 74,000 CNY/ton [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The short - term outlook for treasury bonds is positive [4] Group 2: Core Views - For stock indices, China's April social financing increment was 1.16 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 280 billion yuan, the M2 - M1 gap widened, and RMB deposits increased by 12.55 trillion yuan in the first four months. The establishment of the "National Venture Capital Guidance Fund" was announced. The North - bound 50 and Flush micro - cap stocks reached new highs, while bank ETFs also neared historical highs, indicating more volatile subsequent stock index movements. Currently, the market index is close to the March high, but the fundamentals, sentiment, hot topics, and trading volume are not as good as in March. It is advisable to adopt a defensive stance and wait for a clear direction [1] - For treasury bonds, in the short term, the market is in a state of multi - empty equilibrium. The trading around short - term tariff issues is almost over. The core issues driving the market are whether funds can remain stable and whether there will be a rebound in production and exports. There is no clear tendency in the game between reality and expectations, and the market trend is rather confusing. It is difficult for the yield to break through the oscillation range since April before the continuous loosening of funds is disproven and the expectation of fundamental improvement is confirmed [3] Group 3: Strategy Recommendations - For stock indices, adopt a defensive stance and wait and see [2] - For treasury bonds, be bullish in the short term [4] Group 4: Market Review - For stock indices, the futures of the CSI 300 index main contract rose 1.45%, the SSE 50 index main contract futures rose 1.85%, the CSI 500 index main contract futures rose 0.77%, and the CSI 1000 index main contract futures rose 0.77% [6] - For treasury bonds, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.12%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.13%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.23%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.05% [9] Group 5: Technical Analysis - For stock indices, the KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows possible oscillatory movement with adjustment risks [7] - For treasury bonds, the KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows oscillatory movement with a possible rebound [10] Group 6: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3907.40 | 1.45 | 81957 | 164602 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2737.60 | 1.85 | 48329 | 61472 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5697.80 | 0.77 | 72621 | 117024 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6043.00 | 0.77 | 189515 | 196475 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.53 | - 0.12 | 68753 | 126019 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.81 | - 0.13 | 55124 | 104037 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 118.93 | - 0.23 | 78310 | 59236 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.29 | - 0.05 | 35705 | 59021 | [12]

Credit Demand Analysis - In April 2025, new social financing (社融) was 11,591 billion RMB, which was 12,249 billion RMB more than the previous year but still below the market expectation of 12,638 billion RMB[1] - The new RMB loan scale was 2,800 billion RMB, a decrease of 4,500 billion RMB year-on-year, also falling short of the expected 7,644 billion RMB[1] - The decline in new loans was attributed to the high growth in March, which may have overstated April's demand, a pattern observed in previous years[1] Breakdown of Financing Components - Government bond net financing reached 9,729 billion RMB in April, an increase of 10,666 million RMB year-on-year, remaining a key support for social financing[2] - New corporate bond financing was 2,340 billion RMB, up 633 billion RMB year-on-year, indicating improved issuance sentiment[2] - New entity loans under social financing were only 884 billion RMB, a decrease of 2,465 billion RMB year-on-year, marking a historical low for the period[2] Loan Composition Insights - Non-bank loans and discounted bills accounted for a significant portion of new loans, with non-bank loans at 1,634 billion RMB and discounted bills at 8,341 billion RMB, suggesting weak credit demand[2] - Large banks' net purchases of bills in April were 5,666.68 billion RMB, higher than the 3,785.35 billion RMB from the previous year, indicating lending pressures[3] Household and Corporate Loan Trends - Household loans decreased by 5,216 billion RMB, the lowest level in nearly a decade, with short-term and medium-to-long-term loans down by 4,019 billion RMB and 1,231 billion RMB respectively[3] - Corporate loans in April were 6,100 billion RMB, down 2,500 billion RMB year-on-year, with short-term loans decreasing by 4,800 billion RMB[4] Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The comprehensive financing indicator for enterprises was 5,958 billion RMB, a decline of 276 billion RMB year-on-year, reflecting reduced confidence amid external pressures[5] - M2 growth was 8.0%, exceeding expectations, while M1 growth was only 1.5%, indicating a widening gap that may affect liquidity efficiency[7] - The overall credit demand remains weak, primarily driven by government financing, with both household and corporate sectors showing limited improvement[8]