菜籽系产业日报 2025-06-10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9188 | 6 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2629 | 15 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 142 289086 | 1 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) -2291 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 273 552069 | 10 10019 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 42967 | 5349 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -11713 | 994 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 0 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 26649 | -415 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 694.6 | 2.3 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 5066 | - ...

周二(6月10日)黄金价格小幅下跌，再度逼近3300支撑位，投资者密切关注中美贸易谈判的进展——双 方都表示愿意作出让步。 在经历周一上涨0.5%后，现货金价格在3320美元附近波动。来自世界两大经济体的代表在伦敦结束首 日谈判。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，会谈"应该进行得很顺利"。 贸易紧张局势的缓解可能会提振美元，并打压以美元计价的大宗商品价格。道明证券大宗商品策略主管 Bart Melek表示："短期来看，如果会议产生积极结果，可能对黄金有一点负面影响，但不会太大。" 铂金在经历上周10%的大涨后，周一盘中一度飙升4.7%，目前维持高位，接近2021年5月以来的最高水 平。市场普遍预期白金供应紧张。此外，黄金年内累计上涨超过25%，这种看涨情绪也对其他贵金属形 成了溢出效应。 美国银行大宗商品与衍生品研究主管Francisco Blanch表示："要想金价真正突破当前区间，我们需要一 个真正的冲击事件。"该行预计金价最终将升至4000美元，但可能要到2026年才会实现。 今年，全球贸易紧张局势引发的不确定性动摇市场，也增强了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力。尽管金价近 期涨势有所放缓，但围绕美国关税政策对经济影 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The focus for the week is on U.S.-China trade negotiations and inflation data following a week of dense employment data, with key price stability indicators set to be released [1] - Positive progress in trade talks could temporarily boost market risk appetite, putting short-term pressure on gold prices, while long-term demand for gold is expected to remain supported due to supply chain restructuring and global economic slowdown caused by the trade war [1] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is anticipated to show a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, indicating a potential reversal of the inflation slowdown trend observed since January [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Gold Demand - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction is crucial for gold prices, with low expectations for rate cuts before September, but investors betting on a possible 25 basis point cut later in 2025 [2] - If inflation data exceeds expectations, the Fed may delay rate cuts, supporting the dollar and exerting short-term pressure on gold prices, while long-term geopolitical risks and economic recovery uncertainties are likely to sustain gold's safe-haven demand [2] - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, reflecting a strategic emphasis on gold as an asset and potentially boosting global gold demand [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - The geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine remains a concern, with U.S. officials indicating that Russia's retaliation for Ukraine's drone strike on May 31 has not yet been fully executed, suggesting a significant response may be forthcoming [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market rebounded after a previous adjustment, with the Hang Seng Index opening high and closing at 24,181 points, up 388 points or 1.63% [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index outperformed the broader market, rising by 2.78% [2] - Trading volume increased, with the main board's turnover reaching HKD 245.8 billion, a 4.3% increase from the previous day [2] - The Northbound trading recorded a net inflow for the ninth consecutive day, totaling HKD 717 million, although this was a significant decrease of 89.4% from the previous day [2] Group 2: Trade Negotiations - The atmosphere of the first day of US-China trade negotiations was reported to be positive, with expectations for favorable outcomes that could boost market sentiment [7] - The US appears to be softening its stance, as high tariffs are becoming increasingly difficult for them to sustain [7] Group 3: Company Analysis - Jinli Permanent Magnet (6680.HK) - Jinli Permanent Magnet is expected to see significant growth in annual performance, with production capacity continuously increasing [9] - The company aims to reach a production capacity of 40,000 tons by 2025 and 60,000 tons by 2027, with a current utilization rate exceeding 90% [9] - In Q1, the company reported a production of 8,770 tons of magnetic raw materials and 6,600 tons of finished products, with sales increasing over 40% year-on-year [9] - The gross margin improved to 15.7% in Q1, up from 10% in the same period last year, indicating a recovery trend [9] - The company is focusing on high-end product optimization, with over 50% of revenue coming from new energy vehicles [10] - Export sales accounted for 17% of total revenue in Q1, with 7% of exports going to the US, and the company is actively applying for export licenses [10] Group 4: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Jinli Permanent Magnet from 2022 to 2024 are estimated at HKD 71.66 billion, HKD 66.87 billion, and HKD 67.63 billion, respectively, with net profits of HKD 7.02 billion, HKD 5.63 billion, and HKD 2.91 billion [11] - The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are HKD 6.66 billion, HKD 8.98 billion, and HKD 11.25 billion, respectively, with corresponding adjusted P/E ratios of 26.51, 19.40, and 15.45 [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the mixed performance in the precious metals market, driven by market attention on US-China trade negotiations, with gold prices slightly rising and platinum experiencing a significant increase of 7.8% to reach $1,225.70 per ounce, the highest since May 2021 [1][2] - Platinum has shown a remarkable performance with a cumulative increase of 10% over the past week, marking its second consecutive week of substantial gains [1] - The global platinum supply deficit is projected to approach 1 million ounces this year, indicating ongoing supply challenges in the platinum market [1] Group 2 - The COMEX gold futures for June delivery rose by 0.3% to $3,332.10 per ounce, while silver futures increased by 1.8% to $36.68 per ounce, reflecting the overall positive trend in precious metals [2] - Year-to-date, platinum has outperformed gold and silver with a 32% increase, making it the standout performer in the precious metals sector [2] - The volatility in the precious metals market is expected to increase due to the dual drivers of trade negotiations and supply-demand fundamentals, necessitating close monitoring of US-China negotiation details and changes in physical demand from China [2]

大摩宏观闭门会议 20250609 发言人 00:00 欢迎来到 1 周一度的大摩宏观策略谈，我是邢自强 Robin。今天我们的标题叫中美是否峰回路转。因为 上周双方的领导人有个电话，之后美方领导也预告了中美的贸易谈判会恢复，这周就在伦敦开盘，所以 大家很关注下一步的看点，关税等等，贸易摩擦是变好还是继续恶化。今天我和我们的首席策略师罗会 继续就这个问题对市场的影响做一些前瞻分析。 发言人 00:35 当然跟贸易谈判离不开的一点就是最近愈演愈烈的稀土，这个问题备受关注。这张牌中国为什么这时候 用？会怎么用？是否会重塑全球在科技竞争和产业竞争方面的一些规则和格局？我们也会跟我们基础原 材料行业的首席 Rachel 一起来具体的分析。 发言人 00:58 因为今天早晨追求的团队和我们宏观团队一起发布了对稀土问题的一个深度的问答。就这张牌如何用， 怎么用？国际上的影响和反制大概是怎样？ 发言人 01:13 当然 rita 也会带着他最新的一些从行业中的调研，特别是现在供给侧，大家感觉到内卷还比较厉害。刚 刚发布的 PPI 在半个多小时之前大家也看到了通缩在继续深化。这个过程中供给侧一些反内卷的努力。 能不能做到缩量 ...

Group 1 - Boeing has sent a 737 Max plane to China for the first time since tariff tensions escalated, marking a significant step ahead of further trade talks between the US and China [1][4] - The plane's journey took approximately 59 hours, starting from Seattle and making stops in Hawaii and Guam before arriving in Zhoushan [2] - Previously, Boeing had to send back three planes to the US in April due to trade tensions, with CEO Kelly Ortberg noting that many customers in China were unwilling to take delivery [3] Group 2 - Tariff tensions have eased, with the US reducing its levy on Chinese products to 30% and China lowering its tariffs to 10%, creating a more favorable environment for Boeing [4] - Boeing's commercial aircraft order book is significantly impacted by China, which accounts for about 10% of its orders [4] - Airbus predicts that China will become the largest market for aviation services by 2043, accounting for 20% of all aircraft deliveries, and has seen a positive market response following reports of potential orders from China [5]

新华财经北京6月9日电（记者安娜）5月份，随着我国促消费扩内需各项政策持续显效，价格呈现积极 变化，特别是核心CPI同比涨幅升至近一年最高点。 国家统计局9日发布的数据显示，5月份，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比下降0.2%，同比下降 0.1%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。 "5月份，受季节性因素和油价下行影响，我国CPI延续低位运行态势，环比由涨转降，同比降幅持平于 上月。但在各项宏观政策协同发力下，供需结构有所改善，部分行业价格呈现积极变化，核心CPI同比 涨幅扩大，国内经济韧性凸显。"中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示。 除了核心CPI向好之外，5月份我国价格领域还有不少积极变化。据国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉 娟介绍，5月份，扣除能源的工业消费品价格同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点；金饰品、家 用纺织品和文娱耐用消费品价格分别同比上涨40.1%、1.9%和1.8%，涨幅均有扩大；燃油小汽车和新能 源小汽车价格虽然分别同比下降4.2%和2.8%，但降幅均有收窄。同期，服务价格同比上涨0.5%，涨幅 比上月扩大0.2个百分点。服务中，交通 ...

Group 1 - The core issue of Trump's tax reform is the potential for uncontrolled fiscal deficits, with the tax bill expected to reduce revenue by $3.7 trillion over the next decade and increase the federal deficit by $3 trillion [4][5] - The Senate is facing challenges in passing the tax reform bill, with some conservative Republican senators expressing opposition, which may lead to a difficult negotiation process [4][5] - The tax reform is part of Trump's broader agenda, which includes tax cuts, increased tariffs, and deregulation, with tax reform being the top priority [4][5] Group 2 - The U.S. job market is showing signs of moderation, with May non-farm payrolls adding 139,000 jobs, down from 147,000 in the previous month, indicating a slowing growth trend [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates remains cautious, with internal disagreements on whether current inflation is transitory or structural, suggesting that rate cuts may not be imminent [2][3] - The ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China are critical, with the Trump administration needing to make progress before tariff exemptions expire [6]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Timing System Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the distance between the short-term moving average (20-day) and the long-term moving average (120-day) of the Wind All A Index to determine the overall market environment and identify market trends [1][9][12] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the 20-day moving average (short-term) and the 120-day moving average (long-term) of the Wind All A Index 2. Compute the difference between the two moving averages: $ \text{Difference} = \text{20-day MA} - \text{120-day MA} $ 3. Evaluate the absolute value of the difference. If the absolute value is less than 3%, the market is considered to be in a consolidation phase [1][9][12] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the market's consolidation phase and provides a clear signal for timing decisions [1][9][12] - **Model Name**: Industry Allocation Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies industries with medium-term growth potential and recommends allocation based on sectoral trends and macroeconomic factors [2][3][10] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Analyze macroeconomic factors and market sentiment 2. Identify sectors with potential for recovery or growth, such as "distressed reversal" sectors 3. Recommend specific industries, such as innovative pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and new consumption in the Hong Kong market, as well as technology sectors like consumer electronics [2][3][10] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides actionable insights for medium-term industry allocation, focusing on sectors with growth potential [2][3][10] - **Model Name**: TWO BETA Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on identifying high-growth sectors, particularly in technology, and recommends allocation based on their performance trends [2][3][10] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Analyze the performance of high-beta sectors, such as technology and consumer electronics 2. Monitor the upward trend of specific industries, such as banking and gold stocks, to identify allocation opportunities [2][3][10] **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying high-growth sectors and provides a focused approach to sectoral allocation [2][3][10] - **Model Name**: Position Management Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model determines the recommended equity allocation based on valuation indicators and short-term market trends [2][10][12] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Evaluate the PE and PB valuation levels of the Wind All A Index 2. Assess the relative position of these indicators within their historical ranges 3. Combine valuation analysis with short-term market trend signals to recommend an equity allocation level (e.g., 50% for absolute return products) [2][10][12] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a balanced approach to equity allocation, considering both valuation and market trends [2][10][12] Model Backtesting Results - **Timing System Model**: The moving average difference is 0.68%, with the absolute value remaining below 3%, indicating a consolidation phase [1][9][12] - **Position Management Model**: - PE valuation level: 60th percentile, indicating a medium level - PB valuation level: 20th percentile, indicating a relatively low level - Recommended equity allocation: 50% [2][10][12]