最后，今年经济增长目标不再是一个具体的数值，而是设定为"4.5%-5%"这样的区间形式；财 政政策继续发力加码，赤字率不减，实际支出更多，继续向民生投资、民生工程和民生保障方 面倾斜。今年的老旧小区改造、特别是很多群众都关心的旧房子加装电梯的事儿，也会继续落 实。今年的政府工作报告关键词，你读到了哪些机会呢！ 出品丨财经早察工作室 总统筹丨陈晨星 执行统筹丨 祝乃娟 监制丨洪晓文 曾婷芳 SFC 主播丨胡光旗 编辑丨洪晓文 设计丨王冰 审校丨强燕 郑栅洁、蓝佛安、王文涛、潘功胜、吴清最新发声，信息量很大！ 吴清定调创业板，将推出六大改革措施 政府工作报告中的医疗提法变了，透露三大重要信号 21君荐读 增加居民的财产性收入、促进高质量充分就业、增加普通高中学位供给、加强初婚初育家庭住 房保障......今年的政府工作报告来了！这些关键词你读懂了吗？对你的生活有哪些影响？我们 来一起划重点。 今年政府工作任务的第一条就是要着力建设强大国内市场，要求"拓展内需增长新空间"。这是 什么意思？要拓展内需，提振消费肯定是第一位的。今年报告说了，继续安排超长期特别国债 2500亿元支持消费品以旧换新,也就是这个以旧换新的政 ...

增长目标务实，宽货币延续 国债月报 2026/03/06 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 程靖茹（联系人） chengjr@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133937 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 流动性 02 期现市场 05 利率及汇率 03 主要经济数据 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 经济及政策：基本面而言，2月份，官方制造业PMI为49.0%，比上月下降0.3个百分点；非制造业PMI为49.5%，小幅高于前值。整体2月制造 业景气回落或更多体现为春节因素的阶段性压制。分项上，制造业供需两端均有所回落。一方面，企业停工时间延长直接压缩当月有效生产 天数；另一方面，节后复工节奏偏慢，使得PMI调查窗口期内的生产恢复程度有限。新出口订单指数明显回落，外需转弱；新订单指数较前 值回落0.6个百分点至48.6%，反映内需延续弱修复。政府工作报告发布，经济增长目标调降，整体财政和货币政策力度符合市场预期，对债 市影响偏中性。海外方面，美伊冲突延续，市场避险情 ...

首先，要提一下，昨晚提到的针对127家保险机构的调研问卷，是 "银行保险资管业协会" 发布的，我昨晚一开始引述有误，有读者指出了该错 误，特此重申修订。 也感谢银行保险资管业协会发布了覆盖度这么全面的调研报告。 ...... 好了，今天市场反弹，但咱们还是来聊点着眼于中长期的话题。 上午，今年的政府工作报告已经发布，卖方的解读已经非常多了，站在一名普通的公民，以及个人投资者的视角，我也完整学习了工作报告，能深刻感受 到 —— 我们国家，正在把制度优势，持续转换为发展的强大动能。 在此，抛开短期热点，和大家聊一些， 能从报告中揣摩到的，事关中长期的十大趋势，更偏个人视角。 我就把这篇当做自己的学习笔记了，没有什么严谨的顺序，说的不对的地方，大家还请见谅。 内容较长，合计4000字，可以转发分享。 趋势一，安全是发展的前提，未来的军事能力，和制造业+AI高度相关。 报告强调，"安全是发展的前提，发展是安全的保障"，值此中东局势紧张之际，大家应该对这16个字的含金量，会更有感悟。 在见证了俄乌冲突和中东冲突之后，咱们应该能领悟到，武器的质量固然重要，但数量同样不可忽视——大家会注意到，近期对战事的报道中，经常会提 ...

A股复盘 | 熟悉的缅A / 2026.03.05 今天好多小伙伴投稿！ 光迅救我狗命，今天全靠它红！ 不管封不封，墨龙和洲际炸板了，集运指数欧线短线大幅波动，盘中一度转跌，收盘跌超3%。 先说"薛定谔"的霍尔木兹海峡，今天给我整懵了！我本想梳理梳理，没想到有个账号梳理得比我还仔细！ | 今开 | 625.00 | 最高 | 711.30 | 持仓量 | 3.58万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨收 | 641.10 | 最低 | 619.00 | 日増 | -4358.00手 | | 今结 | 665.70 | 振幅 | 14.79% | 成交量 | 46.94万手 | | 张 | | ाज | | --- | --- | --- | | 卖5 | 665.20 | 1 | | $4 | 665.10 | 1 | | 卖3 | 665.00 | 46 | | 卖2 | 664.90 | 4 | | 卖1 | 664.80 | 3 | | 买1 | 664.00 | 1 | | 买2 | 663.80 | 1 | | 253 | 663.70 | 1 | ...

Core Insights - The report serves as a performance summary of Jiangsu's achievements during the 14th Five-Year Plan and outlines the roadmap for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the importance of advancing economic and social development in the province [1] Economic Performance - Jiangsu's GDP is projected to grow by 5.3% by 2025, maintaining the highest growth rate in the country [1] - The province leads the nation with the highest number of listed companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Beijing Stock Exchange [1] - The number of national-level specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises has increased to 3,022, with technology-based SMEs reaching 94,000, both ranking first in the country [1] - Jiangsu has maintained the top position in the manufacturing high-quality development index for five consecutive years [1] - The province has 301 5G factories, also the highest in the nation [1] - Jiangsu has been the top recipient of foreign investment for eight consecutive years [1] - The density of high-speed rail networks in Jiangsu ranks first among all provinces [1] - The number of 5A-level scenic spots remains the highest in the country [1] Innovation and Entrepreneurship - The report introduces the concept of "OPC" (One Person Company), promoting a new entrepreneurial model that combines individuals with AI employees, aimed at providing new opportunities for young entrepreneurs [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of supporting innovation and entrepreneurship, with multiple references to initiatives aimed at fostering a conducive environment for startups [3] - Jiangsu's regional innovation capability has risen to second in the nation, with significant advancements in various laboratories and projects [3] Business Environment - The report outlines measures to optimize the business environment, including initiatives like "one-stop service" and enhancing public service platforms to better serve enterprises [4] - These initiatives are expected to improve the economic landscape of Jiangsu, making it more attractive for businesses [4] Social Welfare and Public Services - The report highlights efforts to enhance and improve living standards, focusing on employment stability, educational equity, and social security system improvements [6] - Specific measures include increasing residents' income, promoting educational reforms, and advancing healthcare infrastructure [6]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **real estate industry** and its recovery, along with insights into the **construction** and **metals** sectors, particularly focusing on **small metals** and **T metals**. Real Estate Industry Insights - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market through supply-side measures such as controlling new land supply and revitalizing existing land and properties, with a focus on acquiring existing residential properties. A total of **4.4 trillion yuan** in special bonds will be issued, an increase of **500 billion yuan** from last year, with **500 billion yuan** allocated for land acquisition and existing property purchases [2][3]. - In January and February, key cities saw new home transaction areas increase by **5%** and second-hand home transactions rise by **29%**, indicating a recovery trend from the previous year [3][4]. - Future development directions in the real estate sector include focusing on core city developers and property management companies, as well as quality commercial real estate firms benefiting from domestic demand policies [5]. New City Holdings (新城控股) Analysis - New City Holdings has a strong financial position with **558 billion yuan** in interest-bearing debt, manageable through rental income from shopping malls, indicating controlled debt pressure [6][9]. - The company has a competitive edge in third and fourth-tier cities, with its May Square showing a **11%** increase in same-store rental growth and a high occupancy rate of **97.9%** [6][11]. - The company’s light-asset construction and management business is expected to grow significantly, with a **63%** increase in rental income from May Square [12]. Construction Industry Insights - The government’s fiscal policy is set to increase special bond issuance to **14.4 trillion yuan**, focusing on major projects, which will stimulate the construction industry and related sectors like steel and cement [7][8]. - Investment opportunities in the construction sector are identified in infrastructure and supply-side reforms, recommending major state-owned enterprises and companies involved in technological upgrades and high-energy acquisitions [8]. Metals Market Insights - The small metals market is experiencing a significant supply-demand gap, currently at **20%**, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains. Prices are expected to continue rising [14]. - T metals face severe supply constraints, with a potential **70%** drop in output from a major Russian mine, leading to a projected **20%** increase in demand across various sectors, including military and renewable energy [15][16]. - Current prices for T metals have reached **420,000 yuan/ton**, with expectations for further increases due to persistent supply shortages [17]. Additional Insights - The bio-aviation fuel sector is projected to see rapid growth, driven by mandatory blending requirements in Europe and China, with significant demand expected by **2025** [22][24]. - Companies in the biofuel sector, such as Jia Environmental and Excellence Performance, are highlighted for their growth potential and cost advantages in production [26][27][29]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the real estate, construction, and metals industries, along with specific company analyses and market trends.

Core Viewpoint - Since mid-February 2025, the bond market has experienced a notable adjustment, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from around 1.6% to approximately 1.9% [1][9]. Group 1: Market Adjustments and Trends - The rise in bond yields is attributed to three main factors: a significant breakthrough in Deep Seek, increased micro expectations and risk appetite in the financial market following a private entrepreneur symposium, and a clear front-loading of government bond issuance [1][9]. - The current pricing phase appears to be largely completed, with the 10-year government bond yield slightly decreasing to around 1.8% after peaking at 1.9% [1][10]. - The narrow liquidity has stabilized in March, with the central rate of funds not rising further, indicating a potential easing of market expectations regarding monetary policy tightening [1][10]. Group 2: Policy Rate Framework - The expected fluctuation range for the 10-year government bond yield this year is approximately 1.7% to 1.9%, with a projected reduction in policy rates by about 20-40 basis points to a range of 1.1% to 1.3% [2][12]. - The spread is expected to correlate well with the broad credit pulse, which is anticipated to be around 25%-26% this year, leading to a corresponding spread center of 60 basis points [2][12]. Group 3: Future Pricing Trends - Historical data indicates that the 10-year government bond yield has undergone significant adjustments in the past, with most returning to a downward trend after a 25-35 basis point adjustment. However, two instances in 2016 and 2020 saw trend reversals due to fundamental confirmations and shifts in monetary policy [3][13]. - The future trajectory of interest rates will be significantly influenced by the state of narrow liquidity, monetary policy, and economic fundamentals [3][13]. Group 4: Economic Fundamentals - The construction industry's performance is crucial in determining interest rate trends, with recent stabilization observed in the sector contributing to the upward movement of the yield center [6][20]. - Fiscal policies, including the issuance of special bonds and adjustments to high-risk debt areas, are expected to support the construction sector and overall economic recovery [6][20]. - Current low price levels are anticipated to rise, with policy adjustments aimed at stabilizing nominal growth and encouraging investment [7][22][23]. Group 5: Summary of Risks and Opportunities - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to trigger phase-specific opportunities upon reaching the upper limit of its fluctuation range, although expectations for narrow liquidity should remain tempered [8][25]. - Key risks include potential upward pressure from the construction sector and rising price levels, which require close monitoring of supply-side developments [8][25].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [7] Core Views - The government work report sets a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, with a budget deficit rate planned at around 4% [2] - The report highlights that the major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.53% to close at 3341.96 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.28% to 10709.46 points [1][3] - The report notes that the majority of the Shenwan I-level industries experienced gains, particularly in telecommunications, machinery equipment, and banking, while real estate, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and comprehensive sectors faced declines [1][5] Market Performance Summary - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.53%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.28%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.01% [3] - The total trading volume reached approximately 1.5 trillion yuan, with 2,357 stocks rising and 2,882 stocks falling [4] - The telecommunications sector led the gains with an increase of 2.45%, followed by machinery equipment at 1.84% and banking at 1.73% [5] Sector Performance Summary - The telecommunications sector showed the highest increase at 2.45%, while the real estate sector declined by 1.46% [5] - The report indicates that the overall market sentiment was mixed, with a notable number of stocks experiencing both gains and losses [4][5]

Economic Growth - The government has set a GDP growth target of around 5%, indicating a need for increased policy efforts to achieve this goal[7] - The implied nominal GDP growth rate has been adjusted down to 4.9%, with a fiscal deficit of 5.66 trillion and a deficit rate of 4%[8] - In 2024, final consumption and capital formation contributed only 3.5 percentage points to GDP growth, highlighting weak domestic demand[7] Price Stability - The CPI target has been lowered from 3% to 2%, reflecting a shift in focus from preventing inflation to promoting price recovery[9] - This adjustment indicates a stronger emphasis on price stability within the macroeconomic policy framework[18] Fiscal Policy - The total incremental fiscal funds for this year are projected to reach 2.9 trillion, second only to the 3.6 trillion in 2020[25] - The combined fiscal measures (deficit, special bonds, and long-term bonds) amount to 11.86 trillion, an increase of 2.9 trillion compared to last year[25] Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy is expected to be the main theme for 2025, with potential for timely adjustments in interest rates and reserve requirements[31] - Structural monetary policies will focus on supporting real estate, stock markets, and private enterprises[32] Consumption Promotion - Three key areas for consumption policy include subsidies for replacing old products, income support through social security, and improving the consumption environment[33] - The central government has allocated approximately 3,800 billion for consumption incentives, doubling last year's funding[26] Real Estate Policy - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market through measures such as lifting purchase restrictions and adjusting mortgage rates[34] - Attention will be given to the progress of land and housing stock acquisition through special bonds[36] Industrial Policy - Discussions on potential new rounds of capacity reduction are ongoing, but any measures are expected to be moderate and market-driven[37] - The focus will be on addressing structural issues in industries facing overcapacity, particularly in emerging sectors[38] Technology and Private Enterprises - The government emphasizes the need for institutional support for private enterprises in national technology innovation projects[45] - There is a stronger commitment to resolving issues related to overdue payments to private enterprises, with funding sources identified for this purpose[45] Energy Consumption - The energy consumption target has been raised to a reduction of 3% per unit of GDP, indicating stricter energy policies moving forward[46] - The actual reduction achieved last year was 3.8%, exceeding the previous target of 2.5%[46] Capital Market - The report highlights the need for comprehensive reforms in the capital market to enhance the balance between investment and financing functions[51] - There is a focus on increasing the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market to stabilize investor confidence[51]

Group 1 - The government plans to set the fiscal deficit rate at around 4% for the year [2] - A special long-term bond issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan is proposed, an increase of 300 billion yuan from the previous year [4] - A special bond of 500 billion yuan is planned to support the capital replenishment of large state-owned commercial banks [5] Group 2 - Local government special bonds are proposed to be arranged at 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year, focusing on investment construction, land acquisition, and settling debts owed to enterprises [7] - The report emphasizes optimizing and innovating structural monetary policy tools to promote healthy development in the real estate and stock markets, and to support technology innovation, green development, and consumption [9] Group 3 - A special long-term bond of 300 billion yuan is planned to support the replacement of consumer goods [10] - The government aims to strengthen the application of new technologies and products, promoting the safe and healthy development of emerging industries such as commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy [14] Group 4 - A mechanism for future industry investment growth is to be established, focusing on sectors like biomanufacturing, quantum technology, embodied intelligence, and 6G [16] - The government aims to accelerate the high-quality development of key manufacturing industry chains and enhance the reconstruction of industrial foundations [18] Group 5 - The continuous promotion of "Artificial Intelligence+" actions aims to better integrate digital technology with manufacturing and market advantages, supporting the widespread application of large models and the development of smart connected new energy vehicles, AI smartphones, and intelligent manufacturing equipment [19][20] Group 6 - The government will implement actions to standardize enterprise-related law enforcement, focusing on rectifying irregular charges, fines, inspections, and closures [25] - The commitment to maintain openness regardless of external changes, steadily expanding institutional openness and orderly expanding autonomous and unilateral openness to promote reform and development [27] Group 7 - Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market, with policies adjusted based on local conditions to release housing demand potential [29]