报告导读： 热点主题交易热度整体回升， AI 应用与机器人迎来密集催化，商业航天延续 高热度 。 主题交易环境有望转好，看好： AI 应用 / 机器人 / 商业航天 / 内需消费。 主题 温度计： 热点主题交易热度整体回升， AI 应用与机器人迎来密集催化，商业航天延续高热度 。 上周热点主题日均成交额平均 8.6 亿元，日均换手率 3.84% ，整体均回升。 Meta 大额收购 Manus 和国内大模型公司港股上市提振了 AI 应用主题交易热度，资金明显净流入，数字人民币新规催化支付结算相 关板块行情，蓝箭航天 IPO 申请获受理，商业航天主题维持高热度，锂电材料、区域经济、电力相关主题回调。 2025 年 12 月中旬以来，人民币汇率走强 叠加美联储降息落地与国内财政货币发力预期，整体市场风险偏好企稳回升，主题交易环境有望转好，看好 AI 应用 / 机器人 / 商业航天 / 内需消费。 主题一： AI 应用。 Meta 大额收购 AI 智能体公司 Manus ，强化端到端执行能力，国产大模型公司智谱、 MiniMax 港股上市，强化资本实力与全球布局。 AI 应用产品性能跃升激发用户使用需求，国产大模型公 ...

策 略 研 究 AI 应用与机器人主题有望接力 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 主题风向标 1 月第 1 期 本报告导读： 热点主题交易热度整体回升，AI 应用与机器人迎来密集催化，商业航天延续高热度。 主题交易环境有望转好，看好：AI 应用/机器人/商业航天/内需消费。 投资要点： 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.04 | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 苏徽(分析师) | | | 021-38676434 | | | suhui@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880516080006 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 越世界，越中国 2025.12.24 布局跨年攻势，科技与内需主题轮动 2025.12.21 聚焦国家重大战略，布局科技与能源 2025.12.14 12 月金股策略：做多跨年行情 2025.12.01 从再平衡到再配置，科技主题重回主线 2025.11.30 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the market is currently in a consolidation phase, with opportunities to buy on dips ahead of a potential spring rally. The A-share market has shown strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.9% and the ChiNext Index gaining 3.9% [1][8] - The A-share market's average daily turnover has rebounded to nearly RMB 2 trillion, driven by significant trading in the commercial aerospace sector and A500 ETFs, while the Hong Kong market turnover has declined to around HKD 160 billion due to the Christmas holiday [3][11] - The report notes that the commercial aerospace sector has absorbed market liquidity, accounting for 20% of total A-share trading, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3][11] Group 2 - The report highlights that the U.S. dollar index has declined by 0.7% to 98, with expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts, leading to a general appreciation of non-U.S. currencies, including the RMB, which has appreciated by 2.6% to 97.88 since July [2][9] - The report indicates that the one-year forward rate for the RMB has risen to 6.87, reflecting strengthened appreciation expectations, although the daily fixing remains around 7.036, suggesting a cautious approach from the PBOC regarding rapid appreciation [2][9] - The report discusses the significant rise in commodity prices, particularly in precious metals like silver and platinum, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and geopolitical tensions, indicating a shift in capital towards metals [2][10] Group 3 - The report suggests that A-shares may attempt another upward push, with Hong Kong equities potentially following suit. However, further upside in A-shares will face resistance near annual highs, and a clean breakout is likely to be challenging without a meaningful expansion in turnover [4][14] - The report recommends focusing on domestically oriented consumption and non-bank financials that are trading at low levels and offer defensive characteristics in the near term. It also suggests that a market pullback could provide an opportunity to increase exposure to technology sectors [4][14]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **A-shares and Hong Kong Market Performance**: In 2025, A-shares showed significant structural differentiation, with the metals and TMT sectors outperforming, while domestic consumption and real estate sectors lagged. The Hong Kong pharmaceutical industry, particularly innovative drugs, performed better than A-shares [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Commodity Prices and Economic Conditions**: The price of rebar in the domestic commodity market weakened in 2025, contrasting with the previous seven years of a bull market. The bond market also showed overall weakness, with interest rates trending upwards. The RMB depreciated against the USD but is expected to maintain strength in the future [1][5]. - **Export Strategy Adjustments**: China has diversified its export targets, significantly increasing exports to countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative while decreasing its reliance on the US market. This indicates a strategic adjustment in response to changes in the international trade environment [1][6][7]. - **Economic Outlook for 2026**: The macroeconomic environment in China is expected to remain stable, with a growth target of around 5%. Strong stimulus policies are unlikely, with a focus on structural optimization and alleviating internal pressures [1][10][11]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Market Sentiment and Liquidity Concerns**: By late 2025, the market experienced a prolonged adjustment period, particularly in growth sectors. Despite a rebound in the ChiNext board, the overall market sentiment remained cautious, with potential liquidity issues anticipated by year-end [1][9]. - **Investment Focus Areas for 2026**: Key sectors to watch include AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals, as well as industries benefiting from cultural exports and manufacturing [1][12][19]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The current price-to-book ratio for public fund heavyweights is around 8 times, indicating that the market is not yet in a bubble phase, as historical peaks have reached 14 to 15 times [1][21]. Future Market Trends - **Sector Performance Predictions**: The performance of the innovative drug sector is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by technological advancements and cost advantages. However, high valuations may limit future performance, suggesting a need for tactical investment strategies [1][25]. - **Asset Allocation Strategies**: For 2026, a balanced approach between growth and value stocks is recommended, with a focus on sectors like AI and cyclical industries. The use of a "barbell strategy" is suggested, combining growth tech stocks with value stocks [1][27]. Conclusion - **Overall Economic and Market Dynamics**: The Chinese economy is undergoing complex adjustments, with various factors influencing asset performance. Investors should remain vigilant about macroeconomic developments and adjust their strategies accordingly to capitalize on emerging opportunities while managing risks [1][8][26].

从历史经验来看，春节前后往往是A股走出一波上涨行情的"时间窗口"。 立足当下时点来看，财信证券研究发展中心宏观策略总监黄红卫预计："随着11月份经济数据公布以及 海外多国央行利率决议落地，宏观经济数据对市场影响有所减弱，流动性及风险偏好对市场影响将增 加，叠加国内政策利好预期，A股市场有望逐步演绎'春季躁动'行情，投资者可逐步提升风险偏好，关 注科技成长方向。" 中国银河（601881）证券策略首席分析师杨超认为，2026年，政策红利释放预计相对靠前，结构性机会 将集中在政策导向与产业景气共振赛道，"春季躁动"行情值得期待。 值得注意的是，当前已有机构资金悄然"抢跑"。东方财富（300059）证券研究所副所长、首席策略官陈 果表示："由于春季行情具有较高的历史胜率，叠加市场信息传播速度加快、投资者学习效应增强，当 前春季行情已从'日历效应'向'抢跑博弈'演变。从市场表现来看，增量资金抢跑春季行情意愿较为强 烈，险资、私募已有抢跑动作，融资余额高位有升。投资者可顺应抢跑趋势，逢低布局。" 投资者对春季行情的乐观预期也在一定程度上催化了跨年行情的启动。在国泰海通策略首席分析师方奕 看来，在经历较长时间的横盘震荡后 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in trading activity for key themes, particularly in commercial aerospace, energy independence, AI applications, and domestic consumption, driven by improved market risk appetite and supportive macroeconomic policies [2][3][5]. Group 2: Commercial Aerospace - The upcoming launch of the Long March 12 reusable rocket and the completion of ground tests for the Tianlong 3 rocket are significant milestones, with China's StarNet completing a network of 127 low-orbit satellites, accelerating its deployment [3][20][25]. - The National Space Administration's action plan for commercial aerospace emphasizes the development of new technologies and products, predicting a tenfold increase in satellite launch demand by 2030 compared to 2024 [3][20][25]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on rocket manufacturing, satellite communication, and new technologies such as reusable rockets [21][25]. Group 3: Energy Independence - The central government emphasizes accelerating the construction of a new energy system and expanding green electricity applications, with a target of 25% non-fossil energy consumption by 2030 [5][22][35]. - The share of clean energy in total installed capacity has reached 60%, with 84% of new capacity in the first ten months of 2025 coming from clean sources [22][35][39]. - Investment directions include smart grids, new energy storage solutions, and nuclear fusion energy [22][35]. Group 4: AI Applications - The report notes significant growth in AI applications, with Alibaba's Qianwen app experiencing a 149.03% increase in monthly active users, leading globally [23][41]. - The government aims for over 70% penetration of new-generation intelligent terminals and systems by 2027, with a target of over 90% by 2030 [23][41]. - Investment opportunities are identified in internet applications across various sectors, including finance, gaming, and government services, as well as in data center power equipment [23][41]. Group 5: Domestic Consumption - The central government is focused on boosting domestic consumption through various initiatives, including enhancing the supply of quality goods and services [5][47]. - New consumption scenarios, such as sports events and winter tourism, are emerging, with the ice and snow sports market projected to exceed 187.5 billion yuan in the 2024-2025 season, reflecting a 25% year-on-year growth [47][48]. - Investment recommendations include sectors benefiting from consumption promotion measures, such as tourism, hotels, and sports equipment [47][48].

展望2026年，王培认为，科技领域或仍将保持较强的产业势能，而价值风格在经济进入稳态区间后，有 望继续发挥支撑作用，市场或呈现"科技承先、价值续后"的特征。他同时指出，在信息密度、投资标的 类型数量大幅提升的市场环境下，投研体系的系统化与协同化将变得愈发关键，中欧基金权益专户团队 将通过专业化分工与工业化生产线应对市场挑战。 近日，在"看见 中欧基金2026年度投资策略会"上，中欧基金权益专户投委会主席、基金经理王培从长 期周期视角出发，回顾了过去二十余年市场风格的几轮重要切换。他指出，当前市场正处在从高成长向 中等增速过渡的阶段，科技与价值两大方向在新的周期背景下出现重新汇合的趋势。 他认为，第一阶段（2000—2010年）由周期成长风格主导，重化工业、资源行业和中低端制造业是主要 受益者；第二阶段（2010—2021年），随着城镇化率持续提升，内需消费与新兴服务不断升级，创业板 指数在这一时期迎来快速成长，市场风格明显向成长倾斜。 进入2021年以来的第三阶段，市场逐渐从高成长回到中等增速区间，价值风格重新占据主导。他指出， 在这一阶段，科创板指数没有跑赢中证红利指数，市场再次呈现价值回归的特征。同时，科 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market has been experiencing volatility due to high expectations and positions in the technology growth sector, alongside concerns about the AI bubble and the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook, leading to a significant pullback in the Hang Seng Tech index by approximately 16.6% from its peak [2] - Despite attractive valuations in domestic consumption and real estate, the recent weakening of fundamentals has hindered consensus among investors, making dividend stocks a preferred choice in the current environment [2][7] - The company maintains an optimistic outlook for the Hang Seng Index at 26,000 points, validating this view despite fluctuations in October [2] Market Dynamics - The current market turmoil reflects a disconnect between fundamentals and expectations, indicative of a weakening domestic credit cycle, as evidenced by the peak in private social financing in June and a marginal decline in M1 growth in October [7][8] - The market's oscillation between dividend and technology stocks highlights the ongoing struggle between current fundamentals and future expectations [7] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to consider the credit cycle as a guiding framework for macroeconomic direction and asset allocation, focusing on sectors that align with credit expansion [10][11] - The past two years have seen a trend of "excess liquidity" chasing "scarce assets," with the potential for rapid price increases followed by liquidity shifts to new opportunities [12] Sector Analysis - **Technology Sector**: The AI industry remains a key growth area, supported by domestic policy, but faces challenges due to high valuations and expectations. Short-term focus should be on hardware domestic substitution, while long-term prospects depend on application demand and profitability realization [20][21] - **Domestic Consumption and Real Estate**: Although these sectors have low expectations and valuations, the weakening fundamentals make sustained consensus difficult. Potential short-term trading opportunities may arise with policy catalysts, but caution is advised against "static valuation traps" [17][42] - **Dividend Stocks**: These assets serve as a hedge against weak domestic demand, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Index offering a static yield of approximately 5.8%. However, the range of high-dividend stocks has narrowed, with less than 25% of eligible stocks yielding above 5% [43][45] External Demand and Cyclical Opportunities - The recovery of the U.S. credit cycle may boost global manufacturing, benefiting sectors tied to exports and commodity pricing. Key indicators to watch include U.S. manufacturing PMI and existing home sales [34][37] - The cyclical recovery in external demand may provide short-term trading windows, particularly in the first quarter, as domestic PPI is expected to rise [39][42] Conclusion - The investment strategy should focus on a "barbell" approach, combining dividend and technology stocks while dynamically adjusting weights based on market conditions. External demand-driven cyclical sectors and innovative pharmaceuticals may offer additional flexibility in the portfolio [17][19]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.07% and the ChiNext Index down by 0.14%. However, the commercial aerospace sector is showing active performance, while sectors like Hainan Free Trade Zone, CPO, and photolithography machines are facing significant declines [1]. Institutional Outlook - CITIC Securities suggests that as incremental funds increasingly consist of left-side stable funds, the A-share and Hong Kong markets may exhibit a pattern similar to the U.S. stock market, characterized by "sharp declines followed by slow recoveries." This presents an opportunity for investors to reallocate to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks as they prepare for 2026 [1]. - Dongfang Caifu Securities notes that due to calendar effects and institutional behaviors, recent incremental funds have shifted from a third-quarter consensus to divergence, leading to a slowdown in net inflows. As December approaches, the inflow effect is expected to strengthen again, potentially allowing for an early spring market rally [1]. - Guotai Junan Securities remains optimistic about the Chinese market's prospects, indicating that the stock index is entering a favorable zone. Opportunities often arise during periods of panic, and the Chinese stock market is expected to stabilize and embark on a year-end offensive, with significant upward potential, making it a good time for increased holdings [1]. - The volatility in the U.S. AI sector and Google's new highs are seen as a structural shift rather than a market conclusion. China is anticipated to experience a period of policy, liquidity, and fundamental resonance from December to February, suggesting that after market adjustments, there will be a gradual increase in offensive positioning. Key themes include AI applications, robotics, domestic consumption, and Xinjiang infrastructure [1].

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities has released a report indicating that recent debates surrounding AI narratives, tightening liquidity, and geopolitical disturbances have contributed to increased market volatility. The current market adjustment shows initial signs of having sufficient space for recovery, with strong support expected around the market center in late September. [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The report highlights that the market is currently experiencing adjustments that may have reached a preliminary level of support, suggesting a potential for recovery. [1] - It is anticipated that improvements in overseas liquidity expectations and a reduction in domestic funding pressures will lead to a healthier market environment as sentiment further stabilizes. [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The current market valuation is approaching a "reasonable" central level, and if there are any significant deviations, it may be appropriate to increase positions. [1] - The report emphasizes focusing on mid-term themes and maintaining a safety margin in investments, particularly in sectors such as low-level domestic consumption, domestic computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals. [1] - Continuing to hold large financial stocks is recommended to mitigate volatility in the market. [1]