美联储降息预期下降，商品有何影响 20251126 摘要 美联储 12 月降息预期分歧加大，官员对经济数据解读和未来政策路径 存在明显差异，鸽派认为劳动力市场疲软支持降息，鹰派则担忧通胀反 弹，政策不确定性增加。 国内宏观经济方面，11 月 LPR 维持不变，央行认为货币政策仍有空间 但边际效率下降，年内进一步宽松可能性不大，或留待明年发力稳增长。 黑色商品分化，煤焦类商品大幅下跌，焦煤单周跌幅达 9%，焦炭跌幅 超 4%；铁矿石表现相对强劲，全周上涨约 1.2%。螺纹钢和热卷市场整 体表现反复，处于窄幅震荡整理状态。 铁矿石近期表现强于其他品种，但随着基差修复完成及发运增长带来到 港量上升，未来供需矛盾可能加剧，短期内价格可能呈现宽幅震荡走势。 贵金属延续偏弱格局，金银比徘徊在 81 附近，美联储内部分歧导致 12 月降息概率降低，俄乌、中美关系缓和等因素使得黄金中短期缺乏上涨 动力，或维持高位震荡。 原油市场中期供给宽松趋势压制油价反弹，地缘政治因素短期扰动，但 中长期供需错配仍是主要矛盾，IEA 预测今年及明年全球原油供应过剩 压力依然存在。 生猪现货价格持续下行，养殖户亏损，出栏节奏高位但消费未显著增 ...

Group 1: Economic Policies and Stimulus - The U.S. announced a trade framework agreement with Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, and El Salvador to lower food tariffs, aiming to alleviate rising food prices due to tariffs and supply shocks [45][47] - Japan's government introduced a comprehensive economic stimulus plan worth 21.3 trillion yen, focusing on short-term subsidies, crisis management investments, and defense spending to boost GDP [64] Group 2: Market Performance - Major equity markets experienced declines, with the Hang Seng Technology Index down 7.2% and the Nasdaq down 2.7% [3][12] - The S&P 500 sectors showed mixed results, with communication services, healthcare, and consumer staples rising by 3.0%, 1.8%, and 0.8% respectively, while information technology and consumer discretionary fell by 4.7% and 3.3% [8] Group 3: Employment Data - The U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, exceeding market expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% [73]

Core Viewpoint - The United States and South Korea have reached a comprehensive economic and security agreement, which includes significant investment plans from South Korea and major tariff reductions from the U.S. [2][4] Economic Agreement - South Korea will invest a total of $350 billion in the U.S., with $200 billion as cash investment and $150 billion allocated for shipbuilding projects [5] - The U.S. will reduce tariffs on South Korean automobiles, auto parts, wood, and wood products under Section 232 from 25% to 15% [5][6] - South Korea has committed to providing $33 billion in comprehensive support for U.S. troops stationed in South Korea [5] Defense Cooperation - South Korea will build nuclear-powered submarines with U.S. authorization, and plans to purchase $25 billion worth of U.S. military equipment by 2030 [4][7] - The defense spending of South Korea is set to increase to 3.5% of GDP [4] Trade Relations - South Korea will lift the import limit on 50,000 unmodified U.S. cars and work with the U.S. to address non-tariff barriers affecting food and agricultural trade [5] - The agreement aims to stabilize the foreign exchange market and prevent market instability due to the commitments made [5][6] Market Impact - The announcement led to a significant appreciation of the South Korean won, with the dollar dropping over 1% against the won [2][6] - Analysts suggest that the reduction in tariffs will alleviate downward risks for the South Korean automotive industry, which heavily relies on U.S. demand [6]

Core Insights - Ethiopia is actively participating in the China International Import Expo (CIIE) with 17 African countries showcasing their products, aiming to enhance bilateral cooperation with China [1] - The Ethiopian ambassador to China, Taffera, emphasizes the importance of the expo for expanding the market share of Ethiopian coffee, which has seen a significant increase in exports to China [7][11] Group 1: Coffee Industry - Ethiopia has a rich coffee culture, demonstrated at the expo with traditional coffee-making processes, highlighting the significance of coffee in Ethiopian heritage [3][5] - The demand for high-quality coffee in China is growing, presenting a substantial opportunity for Ethiopian coffee producers, especially with the zero-tariff policy on Ethiopian goods [7][11] - In the first quarter of the Ethiopian fiscal year 2025/2026, over 9,000 tons of coffee were exported to China, indicating a strong market response [11] Group 2: Agricultural Products - In addition to coffee, Ethiopia is exporting other agricultural products such as sesame, green beans, and cassava, with a notable increase in overall exports to China, which grew by over 46% in the first two quarters of the year [13] - The Ethiopian ambassador expresses optimism about further expanding bilateral trade, particularly in machinery and electric vehicles, which are in high demand in Ethiopia [13][15] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The new five-year plan from China is seen as an opportunity for Ethiopia to attract more Chinese investments, particularly as China's manufacturing sector focuses on high-quality development [15]

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth rate at constant prices in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year-on-year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1] - Manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 49.0%, down from 49.8% in the previous month and 50.1% in the same period last year [1] - Non-manufacturing PMI for business activities in October 2025 was 50.1%, up slightly from 50.0% in the previous month but down from 50.2% in the same period last year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - China's S&P Manufacturing PMI in October was 50.6, down from 51.2 in the previous month, with the expansion trend slowing [2] - In the first three quarters, the added value of large-scale electronic information manufacturing increased by 10.9% year-on-year, outperforming the overall industry and high-tech manufacturing [2] - China and the EU held export control dialogue consultations in Brussels, aiming to promote the stability and smoothness of the industrial and supply chains [2] 2.2 Metals - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China suspended and then resumed its gold accumulation business on November 3 [5] - Lithium carbonate prices have been rising recently, driven by unexpected demand and accelerated inventory depletion [6] - The three-month zinc futures on the London Metal Exchange reached $3,097 per ton, a new high since December 2024 [6] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Baosteel adjusted its production capacity target to "over 80 million tons", focusing on synergy and value creation [8] - Global iron ore shipments from October 27 to November 2 decreased by 174.5 tons compared to the previous period [8] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On November 3, the main contract of US crude oil closed higher after OPEC+ decided to suspend the planned production increase in Q1 2026 [9] - BP's CEO expects electricity demand to grow from 1% to 10% of the global economy in the next 5 - 10 years, driven by AI [9] 2.5 Agricultural Products - As of last Thursday, the planting progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop reached 47% of the expected area [11] - India's soybean oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year soared by 61.6% year-on-year to a record 5.56 million tons [11] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On November 3, the central bank conducted 783 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 259 billion yuan [12] 3.2 Key News - China's S&P Manufacturing PMI expansion slowed in October, but upcoming policies may support the index [13] - Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts for China's export growth and real GDP growth [15] - The 8th China International Import Expo will be held from November 5 - 10 in Shanghai [15] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - China's bond market showed narrow fluctuations, with long-term bonds performing slightly better [19] - The main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly declined, and the 30-year main contract fell 0.11% [19] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1225 against the US dollar on November 3, down 90 points from the previous trading day [24] - The US dollar index rose 0.15% to 99.87 in New York trading [24] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - Xingzheng Fixed Income believes that the bond market will likely remain range-bound, and investors should focus on medium-term, high-coupon credit bonds [25] - Yangtze River Fixed Income expects the bond market to recover in Q4, with the yield of the 10-year treasury bond (tax-exempt) potentially falling to 1.65% - 1.7% [25] 4. Stock Market Key News - A shares rebounded after hitting a low, with Hainan Free Trade Zone and AI application themes leading the gains [30] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to 3,976.52 points, and the total turnover of A shares was 2.13 trillion yuan [30] - The Hang Seng Index rose 0.97% to 26,158.36 points, and southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$5.472 billion [30]

Core Insights - Enshi County is transforming from a transit point to a tourist destination, achieving significant growth in tourism and economic development [1] Tourism Growth - In the first eight months of this year, Enshi County received 13.83 million visitors, generating a total tourism revenue of 9.399 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 43.41% and 50.30% respectively [1] - The county is leveraging its cultural heritage and unique resources to drive tourism, despite lacking well-known scenic spots [1][2] Cultural Integration - Enshi County is integrating various ethnic cultural elements into its tourism offerings, creating immersive experiences that attract visitors [2] - The county has developed a 4A-level scenic area that emphasizes ecological protection and transforms historical cultural relics into dynamic experiences [1][2] Agricultural Development - The booming tourism has opened new markets for local agricultural products, with an estimated income of 1.39 billion yuan from agriculture related to tourism in the first eight months [2] - The integration of agriculture and tourism is exemplified by Huangping Village, which has successfully transitioned from single-crop farming to a diversified business model [2][3] E-commerce and Sales - Enshi County is utilizing live-streaming e-commerce to promote its selenium-rich agricultural products, achieving significant sales through online platforms [4] - In September, a promotional event led to over 19.8 million yuan in sales within six hours, showcasing the effectiveness of combining agriculture with internet marketing [4] Employment and Economic Impact - The tourism boom has created over 800 stable jobs through innovative market setups, contributing to an indirect income increase of over 10 million yuan [5] - The local economy is further supported by the popularity of unique culinary offerings, such as grilled fish, which generated over 3 billion yuan in sales last year [6][7] Conclusion - Enshi County exemplifies the "tourism plus" model, effectively transforming cultural heritage into economic value and enhancing local livelihoods through integrated development strategies [7]

Group 1 - The easing of China-US trade tensions has led to a surge in market optimism, with global stock markets, oil prices, and copper prices rising in response to the positive developments from trade talks in Kuala Lumpur [1][2] - Asian stock markets experienced significant gains, with the KOSPI index surpassing 4000 points and the Nikkei index reaching a historic high of 50,000 points, reflecting investor confidence in improved trade relations [2] - The progress in China-US trade negotiations has alleviated concerns about economic weakness, contributing to a rise in US stock futures and commodity prices, particularly for agricultural products [3][4] Group 2 - Investors are looking for sustained signals of trade conflict resolution and effective economic stimulus measures from China, which could translate into tangible growth [4][5] - China's industrial profits showed a year-on-year increase of 3.2% for the first nine months of the year, with a notable 21.6% growth in September, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations [4] - The stability and cooperation between China and the US are crucial for global market confidence, as their trade relationship accounts for nearly one-fifth of global trade [5]

Core Insights - Vietnam's foreign trade turnover reached $680.6 billion in the first three quarters of the year, marking a 17.3% year-on-year increase, with expectations to exceed $900 billion by year-end, setting a historical record [1][2] Export Summary - Exports totaled $348.74 billion, up 16% year-on-year, significantly surpassing the annual target of 12% [1] - Domestic enterprises exported $85.41 billion (24.5% of total exports), while foreign-invested enterprises exported $263.33 billion (75.5% of total exports), reflecting a growth of 21.4% [1] - 32 categories of goods exceeded $1 billion in exports, accounting for 93.1% of total exports, with 7 categories surpassing $10 billion, representing 67.9% [1] - The manufacturing sector drove export growth, contributing $297.2 billion (85.2% of total exports) with a 16.7% increase [1] - Key export products included mobile phones, computers, textiles, and footwear, while agricultural exports reached approximately $33.2 billion, growing 15.2% [1] Import Summary - Imports amounted to $332 billion, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year increase [2] - Domestic enterprises imported $105.67 billion (4.6% growth), while foreign-invested enterprises imported $226.25 billion (26.8% growth) [2] - China remained the largest source of imports at $134.4 billion (27.9% growth), followed by South Korea ($44.4 billion, 7% growth), ASEAN ($39.1 billion, 14.5% growth), Japan ($18.2 billion, 13.2% growth), and the USA ($13.7 billion, 23.6% growth) [2] - Raw materials and equipment accounted for 89% of total imports, indicating a strong recovery in domestic industrial production with a 19.5% increase [2] Trade Balance - Vietnam maintained a trade surplus of approximately $16.8 billion in the first three quarters, contributing to macroeconomic stability and foreign exchange reserves [2] - Domestic enterprises recorded a trade deficit of $20.26 billion, while foreign-invested enterprises achieved a surplus of $37.08 billion [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Trade expressed confidence in achieving the target of surpassing $900 billion in total foreign trade turnover by the end of the year, barring any significant fluctuations [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, in line with market expectations, and the dot - plot shows two more rate cuts this year. The market has different reactions to various asset classes due to this rate cut and other factors such as supply - demand fundamentals and policy expectations [1][12][16]. - The prices of most commodities and financial products are in an oscillatory state, and the future trends are affected by multiple factors including macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations [3][4][23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and the gold price fell from its high. The short - term upside momentum of gold is lacking, and there is a risk of callback [12][13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed's September rate cut of 25bp was in line with expectations, and the dollar index oscillated. It is expected to continue oscillating in the short term [14][16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed's rate cut of 25bp supported market risk appetite. It is recommended to take a bullish approach, but be aware of market fluctuations caused by economic data changes [18]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is affected by multiple factors, and it is recommended to be cautious and not chase the market [19][20]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - International coal prices followed the upward trend. The coal price is expected to continue oscillating in the short term, with limited space for movement [21][22]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The iron ore price continued to oscillate. The fundamentals are supportive, but the upside is restricted by finished products. Be vigilant about the demand decline after October [23]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Ukraine imposed a 10% export tariff on soybeans. The soybean meal price was affected by Sino - US negotiations. If an agreement is reached, the short - term price may be weak [24][25]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil production decreased in September, but the price increase was limited. The soybean oil price was affected by Sino - US relations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and pay attention to positive spreads for some varieties [26][27]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The red date price was stable. The consumption was weak during the pre - holiday season. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [28][29]. 2.6 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel price continued to oscillate. The demand was weak, but the cost support and anti - involution policy expectations provided support. It is recommended to use an oscillatory trading strategy [30][33][34]. 2.7 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal auction prices in Lvliang fluctuated. The supply increased, and the price is expected to continue oscillating in the short term [35][36]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The pig production capacity control meeting was held. It is recommended to short near - month contracts and pay attention to the reverse spread [37][38]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The Fed's rate cut had a neutral impact on copper. The macro factors' support for copper weakened, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [40][41][42]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon price may rise slightly. The futures price is expected to oscillate between 50,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton, and pay attention to the anti - spread opportunity [44][45][46]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Sichuan silicon plants plan to cut production. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to interval trading opportunities [47]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The demand for lead improved marginally. It is recommended to wait and see for the short term and consider buying on dips for the medium term [48][49]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price had a large uncertainty in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the short term, pay attention to the positive spread opportunity, and maintain the positive spread idea for internal and external trading [50][51][52]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The lithium carbonate price may decline after the demand peak. It is recommended to take a bearish approach, be cautious in the short term, and pay attention to the anti - spread opportunity [55][56]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The LPG price is expected to oscillate in the short term [57][59]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The crude oil price oscillated and declined. Pay attention to the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the price in the short term [60][61]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price oscillated. It is recommended to try positive spreads between November and January [62][63]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA price oscillated in the short term [65][66]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The styrene port inventory pressure eased marginally. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and pay attention to the post - peak season inventory problem and oil price fluctuations [68][69]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda price may decline, but the downward space is limited [70][72]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market oscillated weakly [73][74]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price had a limited rebound. The fundamentals are weak, and the future may continue to be weak [75]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip demand is entering the off - season. The price is under pressure, and further production cuts may not improve the processing fee [76][77]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price oscillated. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [78][79]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price increased slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the spread trading opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and short on soda ash 2601 [80][81]. 2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The container freight rate may continue to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions [83].

Core Viewpoint - The Guangdong Three Treasures, featuring traditional health products, showcased their offerings at the Guangdong International Tourism Industry Expo, emphasizing the integration of cultural tourism and local specialties [1][3][25]. Group 1: Event Overview - The Guangdong International Tourism Industry Expo took place from September 12-14, 2025, at the Canton Fair Exhibition Center [2][3]. - The Guangdong Three Treasures participated in the event, highlighting their products in the cultural tourism integration pavilion [6][13]. Group 2: Product Highlights - The Guangdong Three Treasures include three major geographical indication products: Xinhui Chenpi, Huaju Hong, and Chunsan Ren, all selected for their health benefits and authenticity [7][9][30]. - Xinhui Chenpi is renowned for its traditional production methods and is often referred to as "one tael of Chenpi is worth one tael of gold" [9][10]. - Huaju Hong, known as "Southern Ginseng," is produced in the unique soil of Maoming [10][11]. - Chunsan Ren is recognized for its digestive benefits and is sourced from the premium production area of Panlong [11]. Group 3: Marketing and Engagement - The Guangdong Three Treasures utilized various promotional methods, including live streaming, product tasting, and interactive engagement to enhance visitor experience [14][18][20]. - The live streaming sessions featured detailed explanations of the products' origins and health benefits, generating significant audience interaction [16][18]. - The event attracted many visitors who were eager to sample the products, particularly the Xinhui Chenpi water, which received positive feedback [21][23]. Group 4: Economic Impact - The collaboration with the "True Village" platform aims to create a "homestay + handcraft" model, enhancing the appeal of rural tourism and local products [24][25]. - The True Village platform has developed a service system that integrates online and offline resources, connecting over 300,000 registered users and more than 1,000 businesses [27][29]. - This initiative is expected to inject new vitality into rural economic development while promoting Guangdong's agricultural quality [26][30][31].