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国投期货化工日报-20250822
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 11:31
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clearly defined [1] - Methanol: Not clearly defined [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading operability) [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a balanced short - term trend and poor trading operability) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend with different products having various supply - demand situations and price trends. Some products are affected by factors such as supply disruptions, demand changes, and inventory levels [2][3][5] Grouped Summaries Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate above the 5 - day average line. Downstream restocking is active, and supply - side news is positive, boosting prices [2] - Polyolefin futures have narrow fluctuations. Polyethylene has supply pressure and slow - growing demand, while polypropylene has supply support but slow - recovering demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices oscillate around 6200 yuan/ton. There is an expected seasonal improvement in the third quarter and potential pressure in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene futures are in a consolidation pattern. Cost is weak, and the supply - demand is in a wide - balance state with potential inventory accumulation [3] Polyester - PTA is driven by cost and shows a strong trend. Terminal weaving is improving, and PX supply - demand is expected to improve [5] - Ethylene glycol prices rise to 4500 yuan/ton and then fall back. Supply is increasing, and inventory is rising [5] - Short - fiber supply - demand is stable and cost - driven. New capacity is limited, and mid - term long - position allocation is considered [5] - Bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, limiting profit margin recovery [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol prices are weak. Import volume is slightly down, but port inventory may reach a high level at the end of the third quarter [6] - Urea prices fall after export news. Supply is loose in the short term, and the market is affected by sentiment and export news [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC shows an oscillating trend. Supply is high, demand is poor, and export pressure is increasing [7] - Caustic soda is strong. Non - aluminum seasonal restocking and demand increase support prices, but long - term supply pressure remains [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices rise. Supply may decline slightly, but inventory is high, and the long - term supply - demand is in surplus [8] - Glass prices rise. Inventory accumulation slows down, and cost increases provide support [8]
国投期货化工日报-20250821
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 11:35
Report Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastics: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fibre: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chips: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The olefin - polyolefin market shows mixed trends. Propylene prices are boosted by improved supply - demand, while polyolefin has different supply - demand situations for polyethylene and polypropylene [2]. - The pure benzene - styrene market has different outlooks for different periods. There is a seasonal improvement expectation in Q3 for pure benzene, and benzene - styrene has stable supply and limited downstream boost [3]. - The polyester market has various factors affecting different products. PX has positive valuation, ethylene glycol is multi - factor intertwined, short - fibre has positive demand expectations, and bottle chips face long - term over - capacity pressure [5]. - The coal - chemical market has different performances for methanol and urea. Methanol has weak reality but strong expectation, and urea is affected by market sentiment and export news [6]. - The chlor - alkali market shows different trends for PVC and caustic soda. PVC is expected to be weak, and caustic soda is strong in the short - term but limited in long - term increase [7]. - The soda ash - glass market is weak. Soda ash has an over - supply situation, and glass has cost support but weak demand [8]. Summary by Categories Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures rose, with positive supply - demand factors such as downstream restocking and supply - side changes [2]. - Polyolefin futures had a mixed performance. Polyethylene has supply pressure and slow demand, while polypropylene has short - term supply support and slow demand recovery [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene has a seasonal improvement expectation in Q3 but may face pressure in Q4. It is recommended for monthly - spread band trading [3]. - Styrene has cost support, stable supply, and limited downstream boost, maintaining a consolidation pattern [3]. Polyester - PX has positive valuation due to improved demand expectations. PTA is affected by device news with limited impact [5]. - Ethylene glycol has a mixed situation with increased supply and stable demand, and needs to focus on policy and demand recovery [5]. - Short - fibre has positive demand expectations in the peak season and is recommended for long - term allocation. Bottle chips face long - term over - capacity pressure [5]. Coal - Chemical - Methanol has weak current conditions but strong expectations, with port inventory issues and changes in supply and demand [6]. - Urea is affected by market sentiment and export news, with a loose short - term supply - demand situation [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC is expected to be weak due to high supply, low demand, and increased export pressure [7]. - Caustic soda is strong in the short - term due to demand for restocking but has long - term supply pressure [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash has an over - supply situation with high inventory at all levels, and its price is under pressure [8]. - Glass has cost support but weak demand, with a slowdown in inventory accumulation [8].
化工日报:需求边际好转,关注成本端变动-20250819
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 03:52
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR is neutral, with attention on the cost-side crude oil and macro sentiment changes [3] Core Viewpoints - The marginal demand has improved, and attention should be paid to cost-side changes. The most pessimistic period on the demand side has passed, but the market is still affected by factors such as supplier actions and inventory [1][2][3] Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - Include TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter-period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short fiber basis [7][8][10] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Cover PX processing fee, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] III. International Spreads and Import-Export Profits - Involve toluene spreads between the US and Asia, toluene spreads between South Korea and Japan, and PTA export profit [24][25] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start-up - Include the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [27][30][32] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, and various warehouse receipt inventories [35][38][39] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Include filament and short fiber production and sales, polyester load, and various factory inventory days and operating rates in the downstream [47][49][51] VII. PF Detailed Data - Include polyester staple fiber load, inventory days, profit, and related operating rates and spreads [73][79][83] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Include polyester bottle chip load, inventory days, processing fees, export profits, and various spreads [86][88][95]
化工日报-20250818
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 12:38
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: No clear investment rating indicated [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a certain direction but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Pure Benzene: No clear investment rating indicated [1] - Styrene: No clear investment rating indicated [1] - Propylene: No clear investment rating indicated [1] - Plastics: No clear investment rating indicated [1] - PVC: No clear investment rating indicated [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a certain direction but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PX: No clear investment rating indicated [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: No clear investment rating indicated [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Glass: No clear investment rating indicated [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Bottle Chip: No clear investment rating indicated [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market for various chemical products shows a complex and diverse situation, with different products having different supply - demand relationships, price trends, and influencing factors [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated widely around the 5 - day moving average. Device start - stop plans exist, and production enterprise inventory pressure is relatively controllable. Downstream demand is general, with some downstream device restarts providing slight support [2] - Polyolefin futures had narrow - range fluctuations. Polyethylene supply decreased slightly, and demand improvement was limited. Polypropylene supply is expected to increase, and short - term demand is weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of unified benzene rebounded after a decline. Domestic production decreased slightly, imports are expected to shrink, and ports continued to destock. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene futures had narrow - range fluctuations. The cost end provides support, but there is a lack of one - sided driving force. Domestic production is expected to increase [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated narrowly, with PX rising rapidly at the end of the session and PTA following. PX supply - demand is expected to improve, and attention should be paid to oil prices and demand recovery [4] - Ethylene glycol prices fell below 4400 yuan/ton. Ports are accumulating inventory, and it is recommended to pay attention to demand recovery [4] - Short - fiber supply and demand are stable, and it is recommended to consider long - term allocation. Bottle chip processing margins are low, and capacity over - supply is a long - term pressure [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices fell smoothly. Ports are rapidly accumulating inventory, and the short - term market is weak [5] - Urea prices rebounded slightly, but the short - term supply - demand is loose, and the market is affected by sentiment and export news [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC is in a weak operation. Supply is high, demand is insufficient, and prices are expected to be weak [6] - Caustic soda is in a strong operation. Supply has decreased slightly, and short - term prices are expected to be strong, but long - term supply pressure remains [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Unified soda ash prices weakened. The industry is accumulating inventory, and long - term supply exceeds demand [7] - Glass prices fluctuated narrowly. The industry may continue to accumulate inventory, but cost increases are expected to prevent prices from falling below previous lows [7]
化工日报:市场震荡运行,关注美俄元首会面情况-20250814
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 07:06
Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the meeting between the US and Russian presidents. In the medium term, as global refineries reach their highest annual operating rates, the demand for crude oil will experience a shift from strong to weak. The oil market may decline in the second half of the year unless the US significantly increases sanctions on Russia [1] - PX supply is expected to increase, but the increase is limited. The PX balance sheet has shifted from destocking to a loose balance, but PX remains in a low - inventory state. The PXN has support at the bottom, but the floating price of PX has shown some weakness [1] - In the short term, the supply - demand situation of PTA has improved due to maintenance, but it is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August. The mainstream suppliers' active sales are putting pressure on prices [2] - The polyester operating rate is 88.8% (a month - on - month increase of 0.7%). The terminal weaving industry's raw material restocking was driven by anti - involution sentiment in July, but the demand has not fundamentally improved. The polyester load remains firm in the short term [2] - The spot production profit of PF is 102 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton). The demand for PF has improved slightly but is still limited, and the near - month 09 contract is under pressure from the forced cancellation of warehouse receipts [3] - The spot processing fee of PR is 393 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 27 yuan/ton). Major polyester bottle - chip factories will continue to cut production in August, and the processing fee is expected to recover [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures show the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][15] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures present the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][26] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of Chinese, South Korean, and Taiwanese PTA, as well as Chinese and Asian PX [28][31][35] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing industries [48][50][59] PF Detailed Data - Figures show polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn operating rates, processing fees, and in - factory inventory available days [68][72][79] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot and export processing fees, bottle - chip export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [88][93][96]
国投期货化工日报-20250808
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 12:38
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: Not clearly defined, represented by "なな女" [1] - Pure Benzene: Not clearly defined, represented by "なな女" [1] - Styrene: Not clearly defined, represented by "女女女" [1] - PX: Not clearly defined, represented by "ななな" [1] - PTA: Represented by "★★★", indicating a more distinct long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Represented by "★☆☆", indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Short Fiber: Represented by "☆☆☆", indicating a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the market [1] - Bottle Chip: Not clearly defined, represented by "女女女" [1] - Methanol: Not clearly defined, represented by "な女女" [1] - Urea: Not clearly defined, represented by "女女女" [1] - PVC: Not clearly defined, represented by "女女女" [1] - Caustic Soda: Represented by "★☆☆", indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Soda Ash: Not clearly defined, represented by "な女女" [1] - Glass: Represented by "☆☆☆", indicating a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the market [1] Core Views - The futures of olefins and polyolefins generally show a weak or range - bound trend. The demand for propylene is in the off - season, and the supply of polyolefins is expected to increase, with varying demand situations [2] - The prices of pure benzene and styrene are affected by weak oil prices. Pure benzene may have a seasonal improvement in the second half of the third quarter and face pressure in the fourth quarter. Styrene's supply is sufficient but demand is weak [3] - PX and PTA prices are weak due to oil prices, and there is a possibility of valuation repair for PTA. Ethylene glycol prices are under pressure from port inventory accumulation. Short - fiber prices follow raw materials, and bottle - chip processing margins are still low [5] - Methanol shows a narrow - range fluctuation, with port inventory accumulation. Urea prices are falling, and the market focuses on export policies [6] - PVC shows an oscillating trend with weak demand and increasing supply. Caustic soda is under long - term supply pressure [7] - Soda ash and glass are in a weak state, with inventory accumulation and weak demand [8] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures: The downstream demand is in the off - season, the supply is relatively abundant, and the price weakness continues [2] - Polyolefins futures: Polyethylene has an expected increase in short - term output, with improving demand. Polypropylene has stable costs, but new orders are insufficient and the purchase enthusiasm is suppressed [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: The oil price is weak, the domestic output increases, the import decreases, and there is a seasonal improvement expectation in the second half of the third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene: The supply is sufficient, the main consumption is slightly increasing, but the downstream procurement intention is low [3] Polyester - PX and PTA: Affected by weak oil prices, the prices are weak, and there is a possibility of PTA valuation repair. The industrial chain profit is expected to transfer from PX to PTA [5] - Ethylene glycol: Affected by port inventory accumulation, the price is oscillating downward [5] - Short fiber: The price follows the raw materials, and there is a positive expectation in the peak season [5] - Bottle chip: The processing margin is still low, and over - capacity is a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The coastal olefin start - up is low, the port inventory accumulates, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term and may change with the approaching peak season [6] - Urea: The market is falling, the demand is in the off - season, the export situation is complex, and the market focuses on export policies [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: The cost support is not obvious, the supply increases, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to be oscillating weakly [7] - Caustic soda: The supply increases, the demand is mixed, the market is accumulating inventory, and the price is under long - term pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash: The industry is accumulating inventory, the supply is high, the demand from the photovoltaic industry is weak, and the price is under pressure but unlikely to break the previous low [8] - Glass: The industry is accumulating inventory, the spot price is falling, the profit and capacity are slightly increasing, and the market is back to real - world trading [8]
基本面过剩压力凸显 短期内丙烯期货整体偏弱震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-07 08:04
Group 1 - The main contract for propylene futures experienced a slight decline of 0.28%, with a current price of 6481.0 yuan, having reached a low of 6479.0 yuan during the trading session [1][2] - Market analysts from Zhonghui Futures suggest a price range for propylene at 6350-6550 yuan, indicating a bearish outlook due to weak downstream demand and increasing inventory levels [2] - According to Ruida Futures, China's propylene production for the week was 1.1636 million tons, a decrease of 0.77 thousand tons from the previous week, reflecting a decline of 0.66% [3] Group 2 - Downstream capacity utilization rates for propylene varied, with the highest increase seen in n-butanol production, while phenol-ketone production saw the largest decline due to maintenance shutdowns [3] - The overall market sentiment for propylene remains weak, with short-term support at 6400 yuan and resistance at 6600 yuan, as the industry is currently in a consumption off-season [3]
国投期货化工日报-20250804
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 12:39
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with ongoing market movement) [1] - Plastic: ★★☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★☆ [1] - PTA: ★★☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Propylene: ★★☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend with some products facing downward pressure due to factors such as supply-demand imbalances, seasonal effects, and external market influences [2][3][5][6][7][8]. - Different chemical products have unique supply and demand situations, which affect their price trends and investment opportunities [2][3][5][6][7][8]. Section Summaries Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures showed a volatile trend, with prices likely to decline due to relatively abundant supply and limited demand support [2]. - Polyolefin futures declined. PE supply remained stable with some demand improvement in the agricultural film sector, while PP faced a seasonal demand slump and weakening market support [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures continued to be weak, but the market pressure is expected to ease in the third quarter, with a recommendation for monthly spread trading [3]. - Styrene futures fluctuated narrowly, with supply pressure outweighing demand growth, leading to a weak price trend [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices declined, with PTA facing supply pressure and a need for cost-driven price recovery in the short term and potential valuation improvement in the medium term [5]. - Ethylene glycol prices continued to fall, with increasing supply and weakening demand [5]. - Short fiber and bottle chip prices followed the raw material decline. Short fiber may benefit from seasonal demand recovery, while bottle chip faces long - term overcapacity issues [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices continued to fall, with short - term coastal inventory accumulation and a potential improvement in the medium term due to seasonal demand [6]. - Urea prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, affected by seasonal demand gaps and policy uncertainties [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices showed a weak trend, with high supply and low demand leading to inventory accumulation [7]. - Caustic soda prices were under pressure, with high - load production and limited non - aluminum demand [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices weakened as the industry started to accumulate inventory, with supply - demand pressure remaining [8]. - Glass prices were weak, with a slowdown in sales and inventory accumulation [8].
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250801
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyolefin futures mainly declined. In the spot market, the prices of linear LL and drawn PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Currently, from a fundamental perspective, market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply - demand factors. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventories are being slowly digested. Future focus should be on the autumn restocking market rhythm after supply - demand digestion [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price Changes**: For LL, the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month futures prices decreased by 43, 34, and 37 respectively, with declines of - 0.58%, - 0.46%, and - 0.50%. For PP, the corresponding decreases were 23, 11, and 27, with declines of - 0.32%, - 0.15%, and - 0.38% [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of LL for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month were 85106, 897, and 211583 respectively; for PP, they were 72769, 690, and 188972 [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests of LL for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month were 170116, 7879, and 326961 respectively; for PP, they were 190211, 10289, and 288497. The changes in open interest were 4000, 231, - 7196 for LL and - 935, 100, - 11205 for PP [2] - **Price Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of 1 - month - 5 - month, 5 - month - 9 - month, and 9 - month - 1 - month were 9, 40, and - 49 respectively; for PP, they were 4, 22, and - 26. The previous spreads were 18, 37, - 55 for LL and 16, 6, - 22 for PP [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, and South China propane were 2406 yuan/ton, 6245 yuan/ton, and 538 dollars/ton respectively, with previous prices of 2421 yuan/ton, 6250 yuan/ton, and 544 dollars/ton. The prices of PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film remained unchanged at 5600 yuan/ton, 6850 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7300 - 7600 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7600 yuan/ton respectively; for PP, they were 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton, 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton [2] News - On Thursday (July 31), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $69.26 per barrel, down $0.74 or 1.06% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $68.56 - $70.41. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $72.53 per barrel, down $0.71 or 0.97% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $72.4 - $73.53 [2]
化工日报-20250730
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 12:45
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows complex supply - demand relationships and price trends, with different products facing various challenges and opportunities. For example, some products are affected by new capacity releases, while others are influenced by changes in oil prices, downstream demand, and inventory levels [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly with insufficient liquidity. Due to downstream device overhauls in Shandong and new capacity releases, the market's ability to digest propylene is limited, and prices lack upward momentum [2] - Polyolefin futures' main contracts fluctuate narrowly. For polyethylene, supply pressure increases and inventory accumulates, though downstream demand is gradually warming up. For polypropylene, upstream inventory is transferred to the middle - link, demand is weak, and the trading atmosphere is dull [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Night - time oil prices rise significantly, causing the price center of pure benzene to rebound. The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene both decrease, and the port inventory slightly accumulates. It is recommended to conduct monthly - spread band operations [3] - Styrene futures' main contracts fluctuate narrowly. The cost - end support strengthens, but the supply - demand remains weak, with high - level supply and increasing port inventory [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rise in the morning and fall slightly in the afternoon. PX's fundamental driving force is limited, and PTA continues to accumulate inventory with a weakened processing margin. The new capacity of short - fiber is limited, and its price follows raw materials. Bottle - chip has over - capacity issues in the long - term [5] - Ethylene glycol's downstream demand is stable, and its price is affected by short - term oil price strength. Overseas device disturbances are weakening as domestic supply recovers [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures fluctuate narrowly. Coastal MTO device operation rates are low, and the port inventory accumulates seasonally. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the market is likely to continue to oscillate within a range [6] - Urea futures open high and close low. Local agricultural demand is ending, and the downstream demand is weak. Production enterprises are accumulating inventory, and the short - term market is likely to move within a range [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices fall at the end of the session. Supply decreases due to enterprise overhauls, and social inventory accumulates. Domestic demand is weak, but external demand is expected to improve [7] - Caustic soda runs weakly. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali improves, and device operation rates increase. The long - term supply pressure remains, and prices are expected to face pressure at high levels [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash futures prices fall at the end of the session. Inventory decreases, and production increases slightly. The photovoltaic industry continues to cut production, and there is supply - demand pressure after the sentiment fades [8] - Glass prices fall at the end of the session. The spot market in Shahe cools down, and production and sales weaken. The industry profit recovers slightly, and long - term demand is poor [8]