| | > 国技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年11月20日 | | 丙烯 | ★☆☆ | 聚烯烃 | ★☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 塑料 | ★☆☆ | 纯菜 | な女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 苯乙烯 | ☆☆☆ | PX | な女女 | | | PTA | なな女 | 乙二醇 | ★★★ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 短纤 | 女女女 | 瓶片 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 甲醇 | ☆☆☆ | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 纯碱 | 女女女 | PVC | ★☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 烧碱 | ★☆☆ | | | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 两烯期货主力合约近期围绕5日均线宽幅整理 ...

| 110. > 国技期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年11月19日 | | 丙烯 | ★☆☆ | 聚丙烯 | ★☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 租料 | ★☆☆ | 纯菜 | な女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 苯乙烯 | 女女女 | РХ | ☆☆☆ | | | PTA | なな☆ | 乙二醇 | ★☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 短纤 | 女女女 | 瓶片 | な女女 | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 甲醇 | ☆☆☆ | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | PVC | ★☆☆ | 烧碱 | ★☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 纯碱 | 文文文 玻璃 | | ☆☆☆ | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 两烯期货主力合约 ...

| MIL. | 国技期负 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年11月18日 | | 两烯 | ★☆☆ | 聚丙烯 | ★☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 塑料 | ★☆☆ | 纯菜 | なな女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 苯乙烯 | ★☆☆ | РХ | ☆☆☆ | | | PTA | ななな | 乙二醇 | ★☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 短纤 | 女女女 | 瓶片 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 甲醇 | ☆☆☆ | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | PVC | ★☆★ | 烧碱 | ★★★ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 纯碱 | ななな | 玻璃 | な女女 | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 两烯期货主力合约日内大幅下行收跌。现货方面丙 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Olefins: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Report's Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend, with some products facing supply - demand imbalances and price fluctuations [2][3][5] - Some products are affected by factors such as overseas market conditions, domestic production capacity changes, and seasonal demand [2][5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures contracts declined. Propylene spot prices are supported due to restart of downstream plants and low inventory [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures declined. Supply pressure persists, but prices may rebound technically [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Overseas pure benzene rebounded, but lacks sustainability. Domestic pure benzene faces supply pressure and weak demand [3] - Styrene futures declined. Supply - demand is in tight balance, and port inventory is expected to decrease [3] Polyester - PX supports PTA prices, but demand is weakening. PTA processing margin fluctuates with PX [5] - Ethylene glycol supply is increasing, and port inventory is expected to accumulate. A bearish view is maintained [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices are weak due to high inventory and weak demand [6] - Urea prices may be strong before the Indian tender, but there is a risk of decline [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC prices declined due to weak cost support and high supply [7] - Caustic soda prices are weak due to high supply and low demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices declined due to lower cost. The long - term supply - demand is in surplus [8] - Glass prices declined. Mid - stream inventory is high, and short - term trading is recommended to be cautious [8]

【纯苯-苯乙烯】 海外汽油走势偏强,市场主要交易美国纯苯紧张及海外调油需求,但韩国对美芳经出口门槛较高,缺乏持续 性。国内纯苯依旧面临进口量高及国产增长的压力,下游效益差,需求有转弱预期,谨慎看待反弹高度,中期 保持逢高沽空及月差反套的思路。 苯乙烯期货主力合约日内小幅收涨。苯乙烯自身供需继续维持紧平衡，国产供应仅有小幅增量预期，需求端暂 无明显减量计划，主力下游需求维持在良好表现。虽然港口库存仍处于高位水平，但持续去库预期仍在。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 | Mile | >国技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年11月17日 | | 丙烯 | ★☆☆ | 聚丙烯 | ★☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 塑料 | ★☆★ | 纯菜 | な女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 苯乙烯 | ★☆☆ | РХ | な女女 | | | PTA | なな☆ | 乙二醇 | ★☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 短纤 | 女女女 | 瓶片 | ☆☆☆ | F30 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (implies a certain state, but unclear from the context whether it's bullish or bearish) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (bearish, with a downward trend but low operability) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ (not clear from context, just following the format) [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ (not clear from context, just following the format) [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ (not clear from context, just following the format) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ (bullish, with a clear upward trend and investment opportunities) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ (not clear from context, just following the format) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (bullish, with a clear upward trend and investment opportunities) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (bullish, with a clear upward trend and investment opportunities) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (bearish, with a downward trend but low operability) [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ (bullish, with a clear upward trend and investment opportunities) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (bullish, with a clear upward trend and investment opportunities) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (bullish, with a clear upward trend and investment opportunities) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ (bearish, with a downward trend but low operability) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall supply in the chemical market is relatively loose, and the demand is generally weak, with different products showing different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4][5][6][7] - For some products, such as methanol and ethylene glycol, there are downward pressure and bearish expectations; while for others like plastic and soda ash, there are upward trends and investment opportunities [1][2][7] Summaries by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The two - olefin futures contracts rose slightly after an intraday high - low movement. The supply is loose, the production enterprises want to stabilize the market, but the trading is average. The demand for propylene has some support due to the resumption of previously shut - down butanol and octanol plants [2] - The plastic and polypropylene futures contracts rose slightly. The supply of polyethylene is stable, but the demand from packaging and shed film factories is weakening. The supply pressure of polypropylene is increasing slightly, and the market has supply - demand contradictions [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The overseas gasoline market is strong, leading to an increase in the outflow of Asian pure benzene and toluene. The price of unified benzene has some elasticity, but the downstream profits are weak, so the rebound height should be viewed cautiously [3] - The styrene futures contract rose significantly. The overseas market provides support, but the future supply is expected to increase [3] Polyester - The PX price rebound drives up the PTA price, but considering the weakening demand and uncertain overseas demand, a cautious bullish view is taken [4] - The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly, and the supply pressure is large. A bearish view is maintained in the medium - term, and attention should be paid to the device dynamics [4] - The short - fiber market has a good spot pattern but weakening demand expectations. The bottle - chip demand is weakening, and the long - term pressure is over - capacity [4] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures price dropped significantly. The import volume is high, the port inventory is accumulating, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. It may continue to be under pressure in the short - term [5] - The urea futures price fluctuated narrowly. The new device in Xinjiang is producing, and the industrial compound fertilizer production is increasing. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate in a range with a slightly rising price center [5] Chlor - Alkali Industry - The PVC price fluctuated strongly. The cancellation of the Indian BIS certification has little impact, and the market is in a supply - high - demand - low situation, expected to fluctuate narrowly [6] - The caustic soda price showed an oscillating trend. The upstream cost is rising, the price is weakening, and the supply is high while the demand is insufficient [6] Soda Ash - Glass - The soda ash price fluctuated strongly. The light - soda market is okay, the cost is rising, and the supply is high in the long - term, showing an oversupply situation [7] - The glass price decreased with increased positions. The intermediate inventory is high, the cost is rising, and the processing orders are improving but still insufficient compared to the same period last year. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in the prices of pure benzene and styrene futures, both rising over 2%, has sparked market interest, raising questions about whether this is a short-term recovery or a signal of a trend reversal, especially given the backdrop of declining oil prices and unchanged fundamentals [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The rebound in "two benzene" prices is attributed to a mismatch in supply and demand, with pure benzene operating at over 80% capacity while downstream utilization has dropped to 69.39%, indicating a weak demand environment [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that the rebound is driven by short-term factors, including a reduction in short positions and a temporary supply contraction due to high maintenance levels in styrene production, alongside a low inventory situation post-holiday [2][3]. Cost Factors - The cost support for "two benzene" prices is expected to weaken, as the previous rise in oil prices was largely due to geopolitical risks, and the global economic recovery remains sluggish, limiting oil demand growth [3][4]. - The expectation of increased supply from new refining capacities and imports in the coming months suggests that the long-term supply pressure on pure benzene will persist, despite short-term reductions in production [3][4]. Market Sentiment - Market participants are currently optimistic due to low inventory levels and a potential seasonal increase in styrene production in December, which may support pure benzene demand [4]. - However, the overall sentiment remains cautious, with analysts indicating that the current price rebound does not signify a sustainable change in the supply-demand dynamics, which continue to favor a weak market [5].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic PVC futures market is experiencing fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 4581.00 yuan/ton, down 0.22% [1] Market Price Summary - In East China, PVC market prices are adjusting weakly, with calcium carbide method 5 type material priced between 4490-4610 yuan/ton and ethylene material around 4600-4700 yuan/ton [1] - In North China, PVC market prices are down, with calcium carbide method 5 type material priced at 4430-4530 yuan/ton and ethylene material at 4730-4880 yuan/ton [1] - In South China, PVC market prices are also adjusting weakly, with calcium carbide method 5 type material priced at 4570-4660 yuan/ton and ethylene material at 4660-4750 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - New Lake Futures indicates that the concentrated maintenance period is nearly over, with future maintenance volumes expected to remain low, leading to continued high operating rates [1] - Heng Tai Futures notes that downstream product enterprises are maintaining low operating rates, with no signs of improvement in orders, leading to low procurement strategies [1] - Guotou Anxin Futures suggests that the chlor-alkali integration still has profit potential, but cost support is weak, resulting in a supply surplus and weak demand, indicating that PVC may continue to operate at low levels [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The supply - demand fundamentals of the chemical industry are generally weak, with limited support from cost and macro - aspects. Each sub - sector faces different supply and demand situations, and short - term market trends vary [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contracts of olefin futures rose first and then fell, closing below the 5 - day moving average. Propylene demand improved temporarily, but overall supply was loose. Plastic and polypropylene futures closed down. Domestic supply of polyethylene increased, and demand weakened. For polypropylene, supply pressure increased, and demand was weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices continued to be weak, hitting a new low. There was short - term consolidation, and medium - term negatives included high imports and falling demand. The main contract of styrene futures closed down. Although supply increased slightly, demand was good, but there were concerns about future supply - demand [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fell. PX supply increased, PTA load decreased, and polyester load increased slightly. There was an expectation of industry减产 for PTA, and it was expected to accumulate inventory. Ethylene glycol supply pressure was large, and demand was expected to weaken. Short fiber had no new investment pressure, but demand was expected to decline. Bottle chip demand faded, and there was long - term over - capacity [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures prices continued to fall. With high imports and weak demand, it might be under pressure in the short term, but with low valuation. Urea prices also fell. Domestic supply - demand was loose, and prices were likely to decline [5] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC prices continued to decline due to weak cost support, high supply, and falling demand. Caustic soda fluctuated. Although liquid chlorine prices were good, there was still high inventory pressure [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices weakened slightly. Cost increased, and there was a long - term supply pressure. Glass prices fell. Cost increased, profit narrowed, and there was weak demand [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, short - term PTA device operating rate will decline slightly as planned. Spot processing fees will recover slightly but still run at a low level. Without substantial production - cut policies, the supply will be in excess in the long - term. High downstream polyester operation supports demand, and the PTA market is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate strongly in the short - term [3] - For MEG, the expected arrival volume in the future is large, the visible inventory rises significantly, and there may be continuous inventory accumulation in the far - month. There is an incremental expectation on the supply side. The demand peak season is near the end, and the MEG price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [4] 3. Summary according to Related Contents PTA - **Market situation**: On November 10, the PTA main futures contract TA2601 rose 1.12%, and the basis strengthened to - 78 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 4594 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The crude oil price fluctuated narrowly. The PTA capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.71% to 75.42%. The PTA factory inventory days were 4.09 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 days [3] - **Main force trends**: The long - position main force reduced positions [3] MEG - **Market situation**: On November 10, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2601 rose 0.56%, and the basis strengthened to 72 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous day [4] - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 4008 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The crude oil price fluctuated narrowly. The production margins of oil - based and coal - based ethylene glycol losses expanded. The port inventory in East China was 56.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.5 tons [4] - **Main force trends**: There were differences between long and short main forces [4]