立足当下中国经济的状况，尹艳林认为至少有三方面改革应尽 快推动：一是收入分配改革，包括调整个税税率、增加专项抵 扣项目及降低社保缴费费率；二是财税体制改革，理顺中央政 府与地方政府事权财权关系；三是投资体制改革，推动民营企 业"敢投资、有回报"。 作者： 宋笛 刘鹏 封图：图虫创意 9月24日，经济观察报专访了十四届全国政协经济委员会副主任、中央财经委员会办公室原副主任 尹艳林。在两个小时的交流中，尹艳林从"反内卷"政策谈起，谈到了稳房价、稳股市、社保制度 和收入分配制度改革、"十五五"规划等一系列议题。 2024年9月24日，政策层祭出提振经济和资本市场的一揽子增量政策，这些政策扭转了消费和投 资增速持续放缓的趋势，有效稳定了股市和楼市。 一年后，中国经济出现了新的变化：一方面，随着"反内卷"政策持续推进，部分工业企业利润得 到修复，工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）降幅收窄，科技企业竞争力增强，股市活跃度提升；另 一方面，消费增速持续走低，部分城市的房价波动加大。 长期从事经济政策研究的尹艳林认为，"反内卷"有较为清晰的行业和行为指向，不是每个行业都 需要"反内卷"。要防止"反内卷"泛化，更要避免"反内卷" ...

国庆假期期间，在各类利多消息的影响下，钢材市场明显回暖。 整体来看，国庆假期房地产销售数据有所好转，但持续性仍需观察，且四季度较难实质性带动钢材消费 增长。钢铁行业整体仍处于去产能阶段，钢材出口增加有助于缓解国内供大于求的市场格局。假期期间 新加坡铁矿石掉期价格小幅上涨，假期后钢材价格有望小幅上涨，随后震荡运行。（作者单位：中州期 货） 资讯编辑：祝蓉 021-66896654 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 在海外市场方面，美联储10月降息25个基点的概率较大。CME"美联储观察"工具显示，美联储10月维 持利率不变的概率为5.9%，降息25个基点的概率为94.1%。美联储12月维持利率不变的概率为0.6%，累 计降息25个基点的概率为15.5%，累计降息50个基点的概率为83.9%。当地时间10月6日，美国总统特朗 普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文表示，自2025年11月1日起，所有从其他国家和地区进口至美国的中 型和重型卡车都将被征收25%的关税。根据中国汽车流通协会数据，我国1—7月重卡出口9万辆，主要 出口至俄罗斯、印度尼西亚、菲律宾和沙特阿拉 ...

上周和几位朋友聚餐，聊到未来生活的变化，大家各抒己见。李哥说他们公司开始推迟退休政策，王姐抱怨银行存款利率又降了，张工则分享了他返乡创 业的计划。听着他们的讨论，我不禁思考：未来几年，我们的生活会发生哪些变化？有什么趋势正在形成？如何提前做好准备？ 社会发展如同大江大河，有其内在规律和走向。通过观察当前的社会经济数据和发展动向，我们确实能够预见一些可能的变化趋势。根据人口统计局、金 融监管部门以及社会调查机构的最新数据，到2026年，可能会有几个明显的社会趋势逐渐显现。 人口变化是影响社会方方面面的基础性因素。根据国家统计局发布的《2025年人口发展报告》显示，2024年全国出生人口为825万人，较2023年减少了43 万人。2025年上半年的数据进一步表明，这一下降趋势仍在持续。 人口学研究机构预测，到2026年，我国年出生人口可能降至750万左右，总和生育率将降至1.1-1.2，远低于2.1的人口更替水平。这意味着低生育率很可能 成为长期现象，而非暂时波动。 这一趋势背后有多方面原因：住房、教育、医疗等抚养成本上升；年轻人价值观变化，对个人发展和生活品质的重视；女性受教育程度提高和职业发展诉 求增强等。 ...

以下文章来源于中国宏观经济论坛 CMF ，作者杨瑞龙 中国宏观经济论坛 CMF . 创立于2006年，由中国人民大学国发院、经济学院、中诚信国际信用评级有限公司联合主办。依托人大 经济学一级学科排名全国第一的优秀研究力量，诚邀社会知名专家，集中从事中国宏观经济动态和重大 经济问题研究，定期发布分析与预测报告。 杨瑞龙 中国人民大学国家一级教授、经济研究所联席所长、中国宏观经济论坛（CMF） 联合创始人、联席主席 数据表明，在连续三年左右时间内，CPI一直在零左右徘徊，PPI一直负增长，国民总支出平减指数 连续8个季度为负，这反映了宏观经济基本面 "在底部徘徊"，仍处于探底之中。 从经济学视角考 察，价格持续低迷可归因于供需两端：需求不足或供给过度。 从需求端分析，需求不足并非指意愿 层面的需求不足，而是有效需求不足。意愿需求也被成为瓦尔拉斯需求函数， 它描述效用最大消费 束与商品价格及财富水平之间关系的函数，可通过效用函数的最优解直接推导得出。有效需求作为凯 恩斯主义的核心概念，它指的是有支付能力的需求，即强调厂商与家庭在需求决策时遵循双重决策规 则，其需求不仅取决于价格水平，也受制于收入约束。只有厘清需求背 ...

文/ 中国宏观经济研究院党委书记、院长 黄汉权 当前社会各方面比较关注的经济热点问题主要是物价持续低位运行、就业 和收入问题、房地产市场持续调整和部分行业"内卷式"竞争严重等。 当前社会各方面比较关注的经济热点问题主要是物价持续低位运行、就业和收入问题、房地产市场持续调整和部分行业"内卷式"竞争严重等。 针对物价持续低位运行问题， 要标本兼治、长短结合、供给需求双侧发力、政策改革协同配合，把推动物价温和回升作为宏观政策目标的重要内 容，加大逆周期调节力度，实施好更加积极有为的宏观政策，综合整治部分行业内卷式竞争和价格战，在供给侧调控重点行业产能产量，以产品质 量提升带动价格回升，在需求侧增加居民收入、完善社会保障，以释放消费潜力扩大国内需求，推动总供给和总需求关系改善。 当前就业形势面临较大挑战，其中既有经济转型带来的结构性就业阵痛，也有新兴技术发展带来的摩擦性失业。也要看到，中国经济稳定增长、新 兴行业蓬勃发展，也会带来新的就业机会。 从近期情况看，房地产市场运行总体平稳。第一，在各项稳楼市政策作用下，房地产销售基本平稳，上半年，全国新建商品房销售面积45851万平 方米，同比下降3.5%；新建商品房销售额 ...

作者 苏剑 要点： ●展望未来：政策调整，下半年经济下行压力不减 内容提要 "稳中求进"总基调不变，政策调整信号释放，重"质"稳"量"，经济下行压力阶段性增加。"反内卷"或成 为影响下半年经济走势的主要因素，短期内经济下行压力存在，但长期利好高质量发展。8月，无论是 供给端还是需求端均有不同程度的回调，货币供应稳健扩张，狭义货币M1同比有所上升，反映出企业 活期存款增长加速，经济活跃度有所提升。 供给端 工业增加值：2025年8月，中国规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长5.2%，较7月放缓0.5个百分点，累计 增长6.2%，较7月放缓0.1个百分点。这一增速主要受夏季高温加剧供应链中断、出口订单季节性波动及 房地产投资持续低迷拖累，但较7月放缓幅度收窄，显示政策传导效应渐显。制造业和高技术产业表现 更稳，凸显中国工业向高质量转型的韧性。然而，全球需求不确定性和极端天气对后续增长构成更大制 约。 需求端 消费方面：2025年8月，社会消费品零售总额同比增长3.4%，较前月下降0.3个百分点，政策调整，消费 额增速阶段性回调。居民收入增速依然相对不高，消费额增速难以长期可持续大幅上涨。8月全国各地 对第二批国补启动时 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The September trend of the stock index was more volatile compared to July and August, entering a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. Due to some funds' hedging needs at high levels after a long - term uptrend, there was a divergence in long - and short - term forces, leading to significant fluctuations in the stock index. However, in the medium - to long - term, China's capital market is just at the beginning of the strategic allocation period. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are mainly composed of technology growth stocks, are more aggressive with larger fluctuations and potentially higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which are dominated by dividend blue - chip stocks, are more defensive with smaller fluctuations but relatively weaker price elasticity [2]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (for different delivery months) decreased compared to the previous two days, with declines ranging from - 0.87% to - 1.16%. Trading volumes were 35095.00, 3254.00, 71448.00, and 11288.00 respectively, and the changes in open interest were - 2835.00, 367.00, - 3631.00, and - 350.00 [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices also declined, with decreases from - 0.43% to - 0.48%. Trading volumes were 15109.00, 966.00, 29241.00, and 2910.00 respectively, and the changes in open interest were 819.00, 301.00, 341.00, and - 420.00 [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The prices dropped by - 1.44% to - 1.48%. Trading volumes were 35918.00, 3743.00, 82089.00, and 14285.00 respectively, and the changes in open interest were - 1087.00, 841.00, 3028.00, and 583.00 [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The prices decreased by - 1.33% to - 1.47%. Trading volumes were 56703.00, 5684.00, 155277.00, and 25326.00 respectively, and the changes in open interest were 623.00, 1021.00, 8777.00, and 1116.00 [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts showed different changes compared to the previous values [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices all declined, with decreases of - 0.95%, - 0.40%, - 1.37%, and - 1.45% respectively. The trading volumes and total trading amounts also changed [1]. - **Industry Performance**: Different industries had different trends. Energy, main consumption, pharmaceutical and healthcare, etc. showed certain percentage changes in prices [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - The futures - spot basis of IF contracts (for different delivery months) compared to the CSI 300 index had different values on the previous day and the previous two days [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indices - **Domestic Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index all declined, with decreases of - 0.65%, - 1.76%, - 1.85%, and - 2.60% respectively [1]. - **Overseas Indices**: The Hang Seng Index declined by - 1.35%, while the Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index increased by 0.27%, 0.59%, and 0.87% respectively [1]. 3.5 Macro Information - The National Development and Reform Commission will implement practical measures to stimulate private investment. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the labor - age population still has scale advantages and demographic dividends. During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, small - passenger cars can pass toll - free on national highways, and the expected cross - regional passenger flow is 23.6 billion person - times, a 3.2% increase from last year. The 2025 Conference on Accelerating the Construction of a Transportation Power emphasized multiple transportation construction tasks. South Korea will implement a visa - free policy for Chinese group tourists from September 29 to next June 30, and the number of Chinese tourists to South Korea is expected to exceed 5 million this year [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - Eight departments issued a work plan for the non - ferrous metals industry, aiming for an average annual growth of about 5% in added value and 1.5% in the output of ten non - ferrous metals from 2025 - 2026. From January to August, the national transportation fixed - asset investment was 2.26 trillion yuan. The State Administration for Market Regulation issued regulations on food safety responsibilities of catering service chain enterprises. As of September 27, more than 470 policies to stabilize the real - estate market were introduced in about 200 cities (counties) [2].

Group 1 - The central theme of the recent central bank meeting is to maintain "moderate easing" while emphasizing "strengthening counter-cyclical adjustments" and "increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation" to support the economy [3] - The central bank aims to ensure that funds flow into the real economy rather than circulate within the financial sector, aligning with the "precise drip irrigation" approach previously discussed [3] - The central bank has expressed a clear intention to "maintain capital market stability" and utilize new tools such as securities fund insurance company swap facilities and stock repurchase loans, which have already seen over 700 listed companies negotiate low-interest loans for stock buybacks [3] Group 2 - There is no specific timeline for interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions, as the central bank will flexibly adjust based on domestic and international conditions, with a focus on stabilizing the exchange rate [4] - The current fluctuations around the 3800-point mark in the A-share market are seen as a digestion of expectations, with ongoing policy support and stable capital flows, while investors await more concrete economic data [4] - The central bank's recent statements indicate a commitment to stabilizing the real estate market without introducing major new stimuli, focusing instead on implementing existing policies [5] Group 3 - The signals from the central bank meeting suggest a determination to support the economy and capital markets, with a more precise and rhythmic approach to operations [6] - The current market volatility is viewed as a necessary phase for building momentum for future trends, with a focus on sectors supported by clear policies such as technology and inclusive finance [6] - Companies with reasonable valuations and those whose performance can gradually improve with economic recovery are expected to benefit from the policy dividends [6]

Group 1: Debt Issues - The relationship between debt and low inflation is closely linked, with high debt levels causing consumption and investment to contract, leading to a vicious cycle of debt accumulation and price declines [4][5] - The current highest debt levels are found in the corporate sector, with significant connections to local government debt, particularly through financing platforms and state-owned enterprises [5] - Key measures to alleviate debt burdens include reducing interest on existing debt through debt swaps and restructuring principal amounts, although large-scale debt restructuring policies are currently limited [6][7] Group 2: Real Estate Sector Impact - The downturn in the real estate sector has exacerbated debt issues, with significant declines in property and land prices affecting the collateral value for loans, leading to increased debt pressure and potential defaults [8] - A notable adjustment of over 30% in housing prices in first-tier cities and even more significant declines in lower-tier cities indicates a need for policies to stabilize the real estate market [8] Group 3: Capital Supplementation - Supplementing capital for micro-entities is crucial for repairing damaged balance sheets, with various strategies needed for state-owned banks, local governments, and households [9][10] - Historical practices, such as the use of policy development financial tools during the pandemic, provide effective models for capital supplementation for local governments [10][11] Group 4: Wealth Effect and Stock Market - Despite a strong performance in the stock market, the lack of significant consumer spending growth indicates that the positive wealth effect from stocks is overshadowed by negative effects from the real estate market [12] - To fully leverage the stock market's wealth effect, stabilizing the real estate market is essential, as the current stock market gains are not supported by fundamental economic improvements [12] Group 5: Historical Lessons - Historical experiences from 1998-1999, when China faced similar deflationary pressures, highlight the importance of expansive macroeconomic policies and targeted debt resolution strategies [13][14] - The need for deep reforms and opening up the economy to stimulate internal demand and enhance long-term growth potential is emphasized [14][15] Group 6: Policy Recommendations - Establishing a nominal GDP growth target is recommended to guide macroeconomic policies, ensuring consistency in policy direction [16] - A larger scale of expansionary fiscal policy is necessary, with specific allocations to improve low-income households, assist local governments in debt resolution, stabilize the real estate market, and support infrastructure projects [17] - Implementing counter-cyclical management of debt risks is crucial, allowing for flexibility in policy responses based on economic conditions [18][19] - Accelerating the stabilization of the real estate market through targeted financial support and policy adjustments is vital for economic recovery [20] - Promoting a new round of reforms and opening up, particularly in the service sector and for private enterprises, is essential for long-term growth [21]

来源：米筐投资 01 昨夜，美联储宣布，降息25个基点。 一夜之间，全球沸腾。 美国降息=全球降息。 首先，政策本身有几个点值得关注： 1、这一次分歧的点，跟以往完全不同，委员们的分歧竟然不是要不要降，而是降25还是降50。哈哈哈 哈。 2、其实美国还没到到必须降息的程度，确实，美国压力也大，就业率下降了，通胀率还比较高，但是 整体没有那么差，最终降了说明政治压力比经济压力要大。 3、今年降了，明年还会降。 4、利好出口，利好外贸，利好沿海经济。我们降息后，存贷款利率下调，算是好事吧，你的房贷、车 贷、消费贷也会同步下降，给你省成本了，压力会减少。但是，存款利率也会往下走，甘蔗没有两头甜 的。 5、美联储降息，美元贬值，人民币升值，黄金上涨，股市上涨，贷款利息下降，进出口贸易走强。 6、这周甚至更早，已经有人知道了降息的预期，因此此次降息力度只能说符合预期，没有意外惊喜。 2000年以来，美联储共出现4个降息周期。 分别是2001年1月3日—2003年6月25日、2007年9月18日—2008年12月16日、2019年8月1日—2020年3月 16日，以及2024年9月19日到现在。 每一次降息的背后，都是经 ...