智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研报称，从个股维度来看，截至1月6日市场仍有95%的个股未破前高。已经突破新高的行业主要集中在少数细分板块以 及权重板块，包括保险为代表的大金融权重，以及"涨价链"带动的部分有色、化工、石油石化、建材相关细分板块，和商业航天、机器人、出海等带动的 军工、机械、家电零部件等。而大部分细分行业仍未突破前高，如科技成长、消费、红利等。该行认为，市场或许还存在结构性机会可以挖掘。 兴业证券主要观点如下： 截至1月6日，上证指数、全A、沪深300、中证800等主要指数均创新高，但从个股维度来看，仍有95%的个股未破前高。该行将个股的前高定义为 2024/9/24至2025/12/31期间的最高收盘价，按照1月6日的最新收盘价来看，当前仅有5%的个股突破前高，大部分个股距离前高的跌幅仍在10%以上。 上述现象背后，反映的是去年12月中旬以来市场涨幅结构相对集中的特征。去年12月中旬以来，指数整体虽然实现"连阳"，但更多由少数板块上涨带动， 近期保险等权重大涨也为指数新高做了不少贡献。从当前已经突破新高的行业可以看到，主要集中在少数细分板块以及权重板块，包括保险为代表的大金 融权重，以及"涨 ...

市场回顾 资料来源：wind；统计区间：2025/11/24-2025/11/28 宏观数据分析 国家统计局发布10月工业企业利润数据，1—10月规上工业企业利润累计同比增长1.9%，当月同比下降 5.5%。累计同比角度，1—10月份采矿业下降27.8%，制造业增长7.7%；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和 供应业增长9.5%。单月同比角度，10月上、中、下游行业利润同比增速依次 为-12.0%、-4.8%、-13.9%，中游中的计算机通信电子制造业、汽车制造业、有色金属压延加工业录得 正增长。在内需不足和反内卷背景下，上游能源和缺乏议价能力的下游行业利润持续承压。 压下的投资消费政策对冲或在美国降息周期下的宽松跟进，这是市场风格能否改变的决定性因素）。在 偏宽松的货币政策支持和低利率环境下，市场流动性充足，依旧支持主题性机会不断产生。 长期维度，中美长期斗争的基调已经确定，随着美国政策的底线逐渐清晰与持续增加赤字，国际资本市 场已经开始质疑美国政府的治理能力与制度信誉。但美元信用目前仍未被实质撼动，美债暂时也不存在 大风险。观察美国资本市场变化与我国是否会迎来战略机遇。当前在美国经济前景不确定+美联储降息 区间中 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the equity market is recovering after a recent downturn, with significant rebounds in previously underperforming sectors such as chips and communications, which are crucial for the market's future performance [1][7][9] - The domestic macroeconomic situation remains stable without major negative surprises, while overseas markets, particularly the US stock market, have stabilized and are showing signs of recovery, providing support for the domestic equity market [1][7][9] - The report suggests that the A-share market may experience short-term fluctuations within a range due to profit-taking pressures, but the medium to long-term outlook remains positive, supported by a relatively stable international market environment and the potential for strong performance in key sectors [2][10][11] Group 2 - The bond market is experiencing a notable decline, attributed to the rebound in the equity market, which has led to a shift in investor preference towards riskier assets, resulting in a lack of upward support for bonds [4][31] - The report recommends a cautious approach to bond investments, suggesting that the bond market may continue to face downward pressure in the short term, with a need for observation in the medium to long term [4][31] Group 3 - The commodity market has shown signs of recovery, particularly with a strong rebound in gold prices, which is expected to provide substantial support for the overall commodity market [5][34] - The report highlights that while gold is currently in a range-bound state, the long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing trends away from the US dollar, suggesting a high probability of upward movement for gold prices [5][35][38]

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant divergence in ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) building strategies amid rising risk aversion, highlighting the differences in institutional participation and stock coverage speed between traditional and emerging ETF sectors [1][2]. ETF Building Strategies - There is a notable disparity in the building pace of new ETFs, with traditional sector ETFs seeing higher institutional participation and faster stock coverage compared to previously popular sectors that now have a higher retail investor ratio and cautious institutional involvement [1][2]. - The newly launched Penghua Hang Seng Biotechnology ETF has a staggering 97.08% retail investor participation, with only about 3% held by institutional investors, and a cautious stock position of less than 2% as of November 20 [2]. Performance of Different Sectors - Some sectors that have not performed well this year are becoming targets for new ETF investments, such as the Bosera National Industrial Software ETF, which achieved a stock position of 47% just a week before its launch [3]. - The article notes that the first major holding of the Bosera ETF, BGI Genomics, has seen a year-to-date decline of approximately 16% [3]. Lessons from Previous ETF Launches - The cautious approach in the biotechnology sector may stem from past experiences where high retail participation led to poor performance, as seen with earlier launched biotechnology ETFs that have not generated positive returns [4][5]. - The article highlights that the Huatai-PineBridge Hang Seng Biotechnology ETF, despite being launched in a hot market, has lost 15% of its value within two months, indicating that high initial enthusiasm can serve as a contrary indicator [5]. Shift in Investment Focus - As the year-end approaches, there is a shift in focus towards traditional low-position industries, with some fund companies suggesting a cautious approach to high-position sectors [6]. - The market is showing a preference for traditional sectors like electricity, coal, and steel, while technology sectors are being overlooked, reflecting a demand for safer investments [6]. Future Market Outlook - The article suggests that for the market to continue its upward trend, macro policies and industrial logic need to align, particularly in emerging tech industries like AI and robotics, which are at a critical commercialization phase [7]. - The potential for systemic revaluation in traditional economic sectors is highlighted, contingent on supportive policies from both supply and demand sides [7].

Group 1 - A-shares fluctuated around the 4000-point mark, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4018.60 points, up 0.53%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13427.61 points, up 0.18%. Over 3300 stocks rose, with a total trading volume of nearly 2.2 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity [1] - The chemical sector performed notably, with the Wind Chemical Index rising 1.19% to reach a new high. Most sub-industries and leading stocks saw widespread gains, driven by supply-side adjustments and industry self-discipline, which boosted expectations for a cyclical rebound. The industry cycle's low point has been largely identified, presenting "double-hit" opportunities for leading companies [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index saw an expanded gain of 1.34%, with the pharmaceutical sector showing relative strength. The Hang Seng Technology Index remains significantly undervalued compared to global peers, and with improving southbound capital flows, it presents mid-term value. Technology stocks are recommended as flexible positions [1] Group 2 - Gold prices reached 4080 on COMEX, driven by a decline in the US consumer confidence index and worsening economic outlook due to government shutdowns and rising prices. The easing of tariff risks between China and the US also supports gold prices. In the medium to long term, factors such as the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts and global de-dollarization trends are favorable for gold [2] - Dividend assets continue to perform strongly amid increased market volatility and a shift in risk appetite. Dividend stocks are seen as a defensive anchor, particularly sensitive to resource-heavy sectors like coal and oil. In the short term, dividend strategies are expected to provide better risk-adjusted returns during market fluctuations [2]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced mixed performance last week, with major indices showing fluctuations and increased trading volume during adjustments [1] - Among the 31 Shenwan first-level industries, electrical equipment, non-ferrous metals, and steel performed relatively well [1] Macro Data Analysis - In September, industrial enterprise profits grew by 21.6% year-on-year, up from 20.4% in August, marking two consecutive months of double-digit growth [3] - The mining industry saw a profit decline of 29.3%, while manufacturing and electric heat water supply industries reported profit increases of 9.9% and 10.3%, respectively [3] - The automotive and computer communication equipment manufacturing sectors showed significant improvement, influenced by industry trends and policy support [3] - The accounts receivable period slightly shortened to 69.2 days, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3 days and a month-on-month decrease of 0.9 days, linked to a new fiscal tool worth 500 billion [3] Corporate Profit Growth - The cumulative year-on-year net profit growth for the entire A-share market and non-financial A-shares in Q3 2025 was 5.54% and 3.94%, respectively, showing an increase from H1 2025 [4] - The main board, ChiNext, and STAR Market reported net profit growth rates of +5.02%, +19.23%, and -5.01% in Q3 2025, reflecting a recovery from H1 2025 [4] - Key industries with strong net profit growth in Q3 included steel, non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, electronics, and media [4] Market Strategy Outlook - The market experienced wide fluctuations last week, with marginal increases in trading volume during adjustments [5] - The proportion of public funds heavily invested in TMT sectors reached 40%, nearing historical highs [5] - The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with high-pressure adjustments on elevated sectors [5] - Long-term investment opportunities may arise from the ongoing AI competition and sectors with strong fundamentals, such as technology and domestic demand [5] - Defensive sectors are recommended for increased allocation, with a focus on dividend-paying stocks and stable assets like gold and agricultural products [5]

- The report introduces two active quantitative strategies launched by the Changjiang Quantitative Team since July 2023: the "Dividend Selection Strategy" and the "High Winning Rate Industry Strategy" [3][10] - The "Dividend Selection Strategy" includes two products: "Central State-Owned Enterprises High Dividend 30 Portfolio" and "Balanced Growth Dividend 50 Portfolio" [11] - The "Industry Enhancement Series" focuses on the electronics sector and includes two products: "Electronics Balanced Allocation Enhancement Portfolio" and "Electronics Sector Preferred Enhancement Portfolio," with the latter targeting mature sub-sector leading companies [11] - The "Electronics Sector Preferred Enhancement Portfolio" achieved a weekly excess return of approximately 1.92% relative to the electronics industry index, ranking around the 28th percentile among technology-themed fund products [4][27] - The "Balanced Growth Dividend 50 Portfolio" has shown significant excess returns of approximately 4.27% relative to the CSI Dividend Total Return Index since the beginning of 2025, ranking around the 44th percentile among all dividend-themed fund products [18]

Market Review - Since October, global risk events have increased, including the potential U.S. government shutdown, heightened political uncertainty in Japan, and escalating China-U.S. trade tensions, leading to a rise in market risk aversion. Precious metals have strengthened while oil prices have declined, with Hong Kong stocks experiencing a greater drop than A-shares and U.S. stocks due to the strong U.S. dollar and international capital flow impacts. A-shares have shown characteristics of risk-averse trading, evidenced by a decrease in trading volume, with daily turnover falling below 2 trillion yuan, and a style shift where previously strong sectors like the ChiNext and STAR Market have seen significant adjustments while defensive dividend indices have risen [1][2]. Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of cherishing quality assets, predicting a gradual recovery in the market starting in late October. Recent signals from U.S. trade representatives indicate a potential easing of trade tensions, with expectations for some consensus to be reached during upcoming economic discussions and the APEC summit. This contrasts with the previous widespread declines in April, as the current trade situation reflects a shift in capital flows rather than a broad market downturn. Overall, financing and ETF funds continue to see net inflows, suggesting that micro liquidity in the stock market remains relatively abundant. The construction of a "stabilizing mechanism" in the capital market and improvements in investor return systems are highlighted as key features of this market cycle, supporting the notion of a sustained "slow bull" market in A-shares, which are currently viewed as not overly expensive [2][3]. Key Focus Areas 1. The U.S. government has released signals indicating a potential easing of trade tensions, with discussions between Chinese and U.S. trade leaders suggesting a possible return to "TACO" trading dynamics. This could lead to a recovery in capital market risk appetite [2]. 2. Positive domestic and international factors are expected to support the market, with the upcoming 20th Central Committee meeting likely to address various themes such as new productivity, green development, and external openness, potentially catalyzing investment opportunities. Additionally, a likely interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a stable U.S. dollar index are anticipated to provide further support [3]. 3. The recent market style shift, characterized by a decline in tech-heavy indices and a rise in defensive dividend stocks, reflects a defensive positioning by investors amid reduced trading volumes. The report attributes the tech sector's adjustment to several factors, including increased trading congestion and profit-taking amid rising risk aversion due to trade tensions [4][5]. Industry Configuration - The report suggests that the current valuation fluctuations in the tech sector do not indicate a permanent style shift. Upcoming events, including the Central Committee meeting and the release of quarterly reports, are expected to boost market sentiment and catalyze thematic trading. The report notes that growth sectors like TMT continue to show relative performance advantages, while cyclical sectors lack fundamental support due to ongoing negative PPI trends. The report anticipates that once market structures stabilize, the focus will likely return to growth and technology investments, with a recommendation to pay attention to "mergers and acquisitions" as a theme [5][6].

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a period of low trading volume and slight declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.3% on September 19 [1][5] - In contrast, U.S. stock markets are reaching new historical highs, with the Dow Jones up 0.37%, Nasdaq up 0.72%, and S&P 500 up 0.49%, driven by strong performances from technology stocks like Apple and Tesla [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is a key driver for the U.S. market, marking the first rate cut since December of the previous year [4][5] Group 2 - Technical indicators suggest a bearish sentiment in the A-share market, with MACD showing increasing downward momentum and KDJ indicating a lack of upward reversal signals [7] - The 3899-point level is identified as a critical resistance point for the A-share market, which needs to be breached for a potential upward trend to resume [7] Group 3 - Despite the overall market weakness, there are still structural opportunities within the market, with notable sectors such as military trade, lithography machines, and lithium mining showing gains of 2.2%, 1.41%, and 1.16% respectively [8] - Investors are advised to maintain a disciplined approach by controlling their positions, selecting quality stocks, and exercising patience during this turbulent market phase [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in the second half of the year, driven by the ongoing AI wave, with significant potential in the technology sector [2][5][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since the beginning of the year, the Hong Kong stock market has significantly outperformed the A-share market, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 19%, surpassing the CSI 300 Index by 21 percentage points [6][9]. - The outperformance is attributed to the scarcity of certain assets in the Hong Kong market, particularly in sectors like technology, healthcare, and consumer goods, which are more aligned with current trends in AI applications and new consumption [5][6]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - Scarce assets in the Hong Kong market are concentrated in the internet, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and dividend stocks [7][8]. - The total market capitalization of the internet sector in Hong Kong accounts for 55% of the technology sector, compared to only 24% in the A-share market, highlighting the concentration of major players like Tencent and Alibaba [8]. - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong represents over 60% of the total consumer market capitalization, while the corresponding figure for A-shares is around 10% [8]. - Innovative pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong have a higher innovation content, with 57% of the sector represented by innovative drugs and CXO index components, compared to 31% in A-shares [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The recovery of the fundamental and funding environment is expected to drive the Hong Kong stock market further upward, with a particular focus on the Hang Seng Technology Index [9][11]. - Despite uncertainties in US-China trade negotiations, positive factors supporting the market are accumulating, including policy initiatives aimed at fundamental recovery and continuous improvement in funding conditions [9][11]. - The AI industry cycle is anticipated to lead the upward trend in the Hong Kong stock market, with capital expenditure in the technology sector expected to accelerate [11][12]. Group 4: Investment Trends - The inflow of southbound funds has been significant, with institutional investors increasingly driving the net inflow into Hong Kong stocks, indicating a shift in investment dynamics [28][30]. - Different types of institutional investors show distinct preferences for sectors, with public funds favoring technology and pharmaceuticals, while insurance funds lean towards dividend stocks [30][31]. - The total net inflow of southbound funds is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting the ongoing attractiveness of scarce assets in the Hong Kong market [31][32].