大家好，关注一下俄罗斯跟乌克兰的最新消息。 11月25日晚间，全球市场发生了异动。 石油价格直线跳水。 乌克兰总统泽连斯基则强调，前路仍有"大量工作"要做。 这名美国官员是在美国陆军部长正在阿布扎比与俄方官员就特朗普政府的和平方案举行会谈之际表示上 述看法的。他说："乌克兰人已经同意这份和平协议，现在还有一些小细节需要处理，但他们已经同意 达成和平协议。" 美方这一说法，似乎比乌克兰官员公开表态更往前迈了一步。乌方官员同样在阿布扎比派出了代表团， 并且一直与陆军部长丹·德里斯科尔保持沟通。 乌克兰国家安全事务秘书鲁斯捷姆·乌梅罗夫在社交平台X上发文称，各方代表团就日内瓦讨论的协议核 心条款"达成了共同理解"。 "接下来我们指望欧洲伙伴在后续步骤中给予支持。"乌梅罗夫写道。他还表示，乌方期待安排泽连斯基 访问美国，"完成最后步骤，并与特朗普达成协议"。 泽连斯基当天早些时候也在X上发文称："在日内瓦会谈之后，我们看到了许多可以让通往和平之路变 得现实的前景。目前已经取得了扎实成果，但前方仍有大量工作要做。" 欧美股市短线拉升。 黄金、白银一度跳水，但随后价格回升。 消息面上，一位美国官员对媒体表示，乌克兰代表团 ...

日本想要政治冷，经济热，那真的是痴人说梦。近二十年来，只有安倍晋三真正在钢丝上走出了些许平 衡，一边安抚国内复杂的舆论情绪，一边务实推动中日经贸关系的前行。中国和日本目前的经贸合作往 来，数据和深度如何？对彼此的重要性如何？ 能打破。日本既没有油气资源的基础支撑，也没有硅谷式的创新引领，仅靠"失去的三十年"中积累的海 外资产收益，难以支撑一个1.25亿人口发达经济体的持续发展，真的是一个慢性衰竭的重症病人。 此次高苗事件触及了国民情感的红线，接下来可能会引发民间自发的、全方位的经济反制。参照2016年 韩国部署萨德系统的先例，当时韩国娱乐业对华出口骤降37%，乐天玛特最终全面退出中国市场。这种 来自市场和社会层面的反应，其力度与持续性往往比官方的政策指令更为绵长。若要缓解当前困境，政 治层面的积极沟通与务实姿态是唯一通路。不过，参照近年日本首相频繁更迭的节奏，估计高苗会在国 内实体经济力量的弹劾下，狼狈不堪的下台，留下一身狼狈的丑象。日本换首相的速度犹如走马灯，从 安倍后的菅义伟到岸田文雄，每任都难逃短命魔咒。英国梅姨之后的约翰逊、苏纳克便是前车之鉴，政 治不稳让经济政策朝令夕改，投资者信心溃散。当政治与经济 ...

停摆结束后，市场风险偏好得到修复，部分资金回流股市及高贝塔资产。然而从板块表现来看，修复并 不均衡：科技及成长板块受情绪回暖支撑表现较强;能源、金融等板块仍受基本面与利率预期影响;避险 资产资金流动出现分化，黄金承压但仍守住关键支撑区间;整体来看，市场从"防御型"向"选择性进攻 型"转变，更像是情绪性反弹而非趋势性复苏。 1. 美元与利率 本周，全球金融市场在政策变化、数据延迟及风险情绪波动的共同作用下呈现明显分化。随着美国政府 停摆结束，市场重新获得政策方向感，主要资产迎来新一轮定价调整。 美国政府停摆结束，为市场注入短期确定性，并推动此前延迟发布的经济数据恢复。然而，美联储官员 传递的信号依旧谨慎，多位官员指出通胀尚未达到可安心降息水平，使市场对年底降息的预期明显降 温。政策呈现"半鹰半鸽"特征，市场在乐观与谨慎之间维持微妙平衡。 由于停摆导致关键数据延迟，本周市场更多依赖预期进行交易。尽管短线情绪有所回暖，但投资者对积 压数据可能引发的波动保持警惕。就业、通胀及制造业数据的缺口，使资产波动在多品种中加剧，数据 不确定性仍是本周主要扰动因素。 1. 黄金与避险资产 美元指数企稳反弹，受益于降息预期降温和美 ...

韩联社11月11日报道，韩国金融研究院预测2026年韩国经济将增长2.1%，主要依托内需复苏。民 间消费增速升至1.6%，建设投资从-8.9%反弹至2.6%。但出口受全球贸易放缓拖累，增速将降至0.8%， 经常账户顺差收窄。物价方面，消费者物价上涨率预计降至1.8%，但美国政策走向与地缘风险仍存不 确定性。金融领域面临多重挑战，股市需警惕信用融资带来的波动，银行业因净息差承压与风险加权资 产调整可能导致健全性指标恶化，保险业受老龄化冲击增长放缓。 （原标题：韩国金融研究院预测2026年经济增长2.1%） ...

Group 1 - Global stock markets are experiencing significant selling pressure, with expectations of a substantial decline in U.S. indices due to concerns over high valuations and AI stock bubbles [1] - Wall Street CEOs suggest that investors should prepare for a market downturn exceeding 10% within the next 12 to 24 months, viewing such a correction as potentially positive [1] - In Brazil, police, supported by Interpol, dismantled hundreds of illegal mining vessels along the Madeira River, marking one of the largest coordinated actions against crime networks in the Amazon basin [1][2] Group 2 - A total of 277 floating mining rafts were destroyed, valued at approximately $6.8 million, with organized crime groups facing an estimated economic loss of about $193 million when accounting for lost gold, equipment, and environmental damage [2] - The ongoing deadlock between Democrats and Republicans in the U.S. government may lead to a historic government shutdown, affecting millions reliant on food assistance and medical subsidies [2] - President Trump indicated that he would not be coerced by Democrats regarding negotiations to extend the Affordable Care Act subsidies, suggesting that the government shutdown could persist for some time [2] Group 3 - From a technical perspective, the next bullish target for December gold futures is to push the closing price above the key resistance level of $4,100, while the bearish target is to drop below the key support level of $3,800 [3] - The first resistance level is identified at this week's high of $4,043.10, with further resistance at last Friday's high of $4,059.90, while support is noted at $3,950.00 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to convert residents' savings into social investments to enhance wealth preservation and growth, especially in the context of declining bank deposit interest rates [1][2]. Group 1: Current Situation - Residents' savings have reached 164.5 trillion yuan, representing a significant amount of wealth [1]. - The continuous decline in bank deposit interest rates poses a risk of devaluation for residents' savings, prompting a need for alternative investment strategies [1]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The article suggests that if residents find suitable investment paths, converting savings into social investments can benefit wealth preservation and growth [1]. - The influx of residents' savings into the stock market can support its development, as long as it is not viewed merely as "buying the dip" [1]. Group 3: Development of Financial Markets - The transformation of residents' savings into social investments can also foster the growth of the fund industry, as residents prioritize safety in their investments [1]. - Investment options such as bonds and funds are recommended over direct stock investments for their relative safety [1]. Group 4: Recommendations for Encouraging Investment - The article proposes three strategies to facilitate the conversion of savings into social investments: 1. Conduct nationwide investor education to raise awareness about investment knowledge and risks, particularly in preventing investment fraud [2]. 2. Promote stable stock market operations to avoid prolonged downturns and volatility, creating a profitable environment for ordinary investors [2]. 3. Address substantive issues in the stock market to boost investor confidence, such as improving the quality of listed companies and enhancing investor protection measures [2].

Core Viewpoint - Global investors are rapidly withdrawing from the Indian market, with a total of $17 billion (approximately 120 billion RMB) pulled out, marking a significant decline in foreign investment in India, which has become the most affected market in Asia [1][3] Group 1: Capital Flight from India - The Indian stock market, once a global star with the SENSEX index increasing over 40 times in 20 years, has seen a dramatic shift since the beginning of this year, with foreign capital starting to sell off Indian stocks [3][6] - Since July, U.S. funds have withdrawn $1 billion, while Luxembourg and Japanese funds have pulled out $765 million and $365 million respectively, indicating a clear trend of capital flight [3][6] - The allocation of India in global emerging market funds has dropped from a peak of 21% in September 2024 to 16.7%, the lowest level since November 2023, while China's share has risen to 28.8%, suggesting a reallocation of capital [3][6] Group 2: Factors Behind the Withdrawal - External pressures include a 50% tariff on Indian goods imposed by the U.S., significantly reducing profitability in export-oriented sectors and widening the trade deficit [6][9] - The increase in H-1B visa fees has adversely affected India's software outsourcing industry, raising costs and forcing companies to reassess project timelines [6][9] - Internally, the Indian stock market is facing high valuations with a price-to-earnings ratio of 24 times expected earnings, while actual earnings growth is lagging, with a projected profit growth of only 5% for 2025 [7][8] - Regulatory inconsistencies and a lack of transparency in foreign investment policies have further eroded investor confidence, compounded by infrastructure issues and market volatility following the Adani Group short-selling incident [9][11] Group 3: Economic Impact and Future Outlook - The capital withdrawal has led to significant market turbulence, with the Indian stock market losing over $1 trillion in market value and a decline of more than 15% in major indices [11][13] - The Indian rupee has depreciated, putting pressure on the foreign exchange market, and the central bank is struggling to maintain reserves [11][13] - Rising corporate financing costs are causing many companies to delay or cancel expansion plans, which could hinder India's economic transformation efforts [11][13] - In response, the Indian government is attempting to attract foreign capital by simplifying foreign investment processes and implementing 11 regulatory reforms to ease banking and lending restrictions [14][15] - However, experts suggest that for capital to return, India must stabilize the rupee, clarify U.S. trade and immigration policies, and ensure reasonable stock market valuations, which currently remain unmet [15][17]

Group 1 - The Asian stock market is experiencing a significant rally, with Japan's Nikkei index reaching a historical high, approaching 50,000 points, reflecting changes in the global economic landscape [2] - The strong performance of the Japanese stock market is closely linked to the new Prime Minister, who plans to continue "Abenomics" with monetary easing and fiscal expansion policies, leading to a weaker yen but a rising stock market [2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, indicated by recent comments from Chairman Powell and lower-than-expected inflation data, are expected to enhance global liquidity, benefiting stock markets [4] Group 2 - The easing of trade tensions between major economies is providing a positive boost to global markets, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) index reaching a four-and-a-half-year high, indicating investor confidence in the Asia-Pacific economy [4] - Australia is experiencing a surge in resource sector stocks due to a significant $8.5 billion agreement on rare earth and critical mineral supplies, leading to substantial gains for companies like Arafura Rare Earths [6] - Despite the bullish stock market, the precious metals market remains cautious, with gold prices stabilizing at high levels as investors seek safe-haven assets amid global economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks [8] Group 3 - The current market rally is supported by multiple factors, including policy easing, improved corporate earnings expectations, and increased risk appetite, leading analysts to raise their earnings forecasts [10] - Investors are advised to closely monitor the implementation of Japan's new government's economic stimulus plans and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut trajectory, as these will influence the sustainability of the market rally [10][12] - The overall bullish trend in the Asian stock market is characterized as a "feast" of intertwined forces, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors who must remain rational and cautious in a volatile market [12]

Hot News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee started in Beijing on the morning of October 20, 2025. General Secretary Xi Jinping delivered a work report on behalf of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee and explained the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (Discussion Draft)" to the plenary session [2] - China and the United States are about to return to the negotiation table. US President Trump said that the US would list rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues to raise with China. Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun responded that China's stance on handling China - US economic and trade issues is consistent and clear. Tariff wars and trade wars do not serve the interests of either side, and both sides should resolve relevant issues through consultations on the basis of equality, respect, and reciprocity [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that China's GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year in the first three quarters. Specifically, it grew by 5.4% in the first quarter, 5.2% in the second quarter, and 4.8% in the third quarter. In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3%. In the first three quarters, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and increased by 3% after excluding real estate development investment; the per capita disposable income of residents was 32,509 yuan, with a real increase of 5.2% after deducting price factors [2] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange plans to revise the "Detailed Rules for Urea Futures Business of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange" by adding large - granular urea as an alternative delivery product for small - and medium - granular urea. At the same time, the premium and discount and applicable regions of all alternative delivery products will be announced externally [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced that the monthly average price futures of linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene will be listed for trading starting at 21:00 on October 28, 2025, and will be included in the scope of tradable products for qualified overseas investors [3] Key Focus - The key commodities to focus on are urea, Shanghai copper, live pigs, plastics, and asphalt [4] Holiday Overseas Performance Plate Performance - The night - session price changes of major commodity futures contracts and the position - increasing ratios are presented. Different commodity sectors have different price change rates, such as non - metallic building materials with a 2.96% increase, precious metals with a 30.84% increase, oilseeds and fats with a 10.19% increase, etc. [4] Plate Positions - The changes in the positions of commodity futures plates in the past five days are shown, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemical industry, etc. [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.63 | - 0.49 | 15.28 | | | SSE 50 | 0.24 | - 0.47 | 10.81 | | | CSI 300 | 0.53 | - 2.21 | 15.33 | | | CSI 500 | 0.76 | - 4.62 | 23.47 | | | S&P 500 | 1.07 | 0.70 | 14.51 | | | Hang Seng Index | 2.42 | - 3.71 | 28.91 | | | German DAX | 1.80 | 1.58 | 21.85 | | | Nikkei 225 | 3.37 | 9.46 | 23.29 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.52 | 0.57 | 15.06 | | Fixed - Income | 10 - Year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.14 | 0.25 | - 0.75 | | | 5 - Year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.11 | 0.02 | - 0.83 | | | 2 - Year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.04 | - 0.04 | - 0.62 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 1.07 | - 1.37 | - 0.08 | | | WTI Crude Oil | - 0.09 | - 8.00 | - 20.06 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.00 | 10.20 | 62.01 | | | LME Copper | 1.02 | 4.05 | 21.99 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 3.81 | 3.65 | 34.82 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.07 | 0.82 | - 9.09 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 27.64 | 19.77 | [6] Main Commodity Trends - Multiple charts show the trends of major commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3 - month copper, etc., as well as the risk premiums of relevant stock indexes [7]

来源：华尔街情报圈 贝森特也说了一句耐人寻味的话： =我们不会因为股市下跌就谈判，我们会因为这对美国经济有利才谈判。 金融市场已经开始渲染气氛： 第一，标普500连续三天在同一个区间震荡，资金在做两件事：观望，以及等待别人犯错。没人敢提前 加仓，因为每次"好消息"都可能藏着反转。 美股收盘后，特朗普的言论再度弹出在交易员们的屏幕前。 特朗普表示，他认为美国已经陷入一场贸易战之中。尽管美国财长贝森特提议，可以考虑延长"休战 期"。 当被记者问及，如果世界两大经济体无法达成贸易协议，是否意味着将陷入一场持久的贸易战时，特朗 普回答说："嗯，你们现在已经身在其中了。" 他补充道："我们征收了100%的关税。如果我们没有关税，我们就会暴露得一无是处。" 这句话令世界大感意外，市场原本幻想的"谈判空间"在收缩。 正如我们今天在《黄金策略》中所言，特朗普的表态本质上是在"确认风险"——他等于告诉市场，这不 是谈判策略，而是结构性对抗。 第二，黄金冲破4200美元，再创历史新高——唯有黄金的信号是明确的。这不是单纯的投机，而是"全 球防御"，市场正进入一种"无信任交易期"。值得一提的是，昨天我们在《黄金策略》中提出了"开盘 ...