流动性日报 | 2026-03-04 能源化工板块成交11489.88亿元，较上一交易日变动+26.64%；持仓金额5426.99亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.28%； 成交持仓比为192.73%。 农产品板块成交3630.14亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.18%；持仓金额6378.90亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.43%；成交 持仓比为52.15%。 黑色建材板块成交2142.21亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.75%；持仓金额3324.50亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.52%；成 交持仓比为60.03%。 市场流动性概况 2026-03-03，股指板块成交12191.13亿元，较上一交易日变动+32.69%；持仓金额16887.90亿元，较上一交易日变动 +0.84%；成交持仓比为70.45%。 国债板块成交2537.84亿元，较上一交易日变动-13.11%；持仓金额8600.95亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.81%；成交 持仓比为28.70%。 基本金属板块成交9185.65亿元，较上一交易日变动+13.70%；持仓金额6757.68亿元，较上一交易日变动-5.32%； 成交持仓比为131.44%。 贵金属板块成交1 ...

文字早评 2026/03/04 星期三 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、美股恐慌指数 VIX 最新上涨 24%，报 26.6 点； 2、欧洲天然气价格涨幅进一步扩大至 40%，报 62.5 欧元/兆瓦时，2 日涨超 100%； 3、美国国务院连发 6 条撤离令，要求在约旦、巴林、伊拉克、科威特、卡塔尔、阿联酋的非必要政府 人员撤离； 4、全球 AI 应用月活榜前五分别为 ChatGPT、豆包、千问、夸克、DeepSeek，千问增速高达 552%。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：1.80%/2.68%/5.23%/5.05%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：3.46%/6.10%/8.67%/7.14%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：2.98%/4.96%/11.71%/9.46%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-2.92%/-0.53%/0.67%/2.82%。 【策略观点】 近日在美伊冲突扰动全球风险偏好，油价持续上涨、美联储降息预期减弱，美债收益率快速攀升，建议 关注国内两会政策信号以及战局转变，注意控制风险。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周二，TL 主力合约收于 112.770 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - The overall market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, central bank policies, and supply - demand relationships. Geopolitical tensions, especially the situation in the Middle East, have a significant impact on the prices of commodities like precious metals, energy, and some chemicals. Central bank policies, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, also influence market expectations. Supply - demand imbalances in different industries drive price trends, with some industries facing supply shortages or excess, and demand either growing or remaining weak [1][2][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The international gold price denominated in London Gold fell 4.39% to $5087 per ounce, and the international silver price denominated in London Silver dropped 8.18% to $81.98 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Tensions in the Middle East, changes in Fed interest - rate cut expectations, and inventory changes in different regions and ETFs. For example, domestic gold inflow was 2.1 tons, and some inventories decreased, while India's silver import demand continued to improve [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold and reduce long positions in silver and wait and see [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated weakly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Delayed interest - rate cut expectations due to rising oil prices, supply - side copper ore shortage but high refined copper production, and weak demand in the off - season [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a range - bound trading strategy in the short term [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 2.29% to 23905 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: High - load production on the supply side and a slight increase in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate on the demand side [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate strongly due to geopolitical conflicts and improving downstream demand [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 1.23% to 2807 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in operating capacity on the supply side and high - load production of electrolytic aluminum plants on the demand side [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate strongly in the short term, but new production capacity may suppress the price in the future [2][3]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: On March 3, the zinc and lead main contracts closed at 24370 yuan/ton and 16840 yuan/ton respectively, with price drops [3]. - **Fundamentals**: For zinc, large accumulation of social inventory, slow resumption of downstream enterprises, but low overseas LME inventory provides some support; for lead, increasing social inventory, some refineries delaying resumption due to high costs, and weak spot trading [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hedge zinc at high prices and trade lead within a range [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.20% from the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in the number of open furnaces on the supply side, slight inventory accumulation, and recovery in demand from downstream industries such as polysilicon and organic silicon [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate between 8200 - 8600 yuan. Consider short - selling lightly at high prices if the large - scale production cut is short - lived [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 150,860 yuan/ton, with a limit - down [3]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in the price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate, an increase in production, and changes in demand and inventory. For example, SMM expects a 8.7% increase in March production compared to January [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may oscillate with high volatility around 140,000 - 150,000 yuan in the short term. Wait and see the new - energy vehicle consumption in March to judge the future price trend [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 43700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.74% from the previous trading day [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Stable weekly production, an increase in industry inventory, and a recovery in downstream production scheduling [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate weakly between 43000 - 53000 yuan in the short term [4]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices dropped significantly [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Delayed interest - rate cut expectations and a tight supply of tin ore, with active trading at lower prices [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a buying opportunity after the implied volatility decreases [4]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3067 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Seasonal inventory accumulation, a significant difference in supply - demand between building materials and hot - rolled coils, and relatively low rebar futures valuation [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in rebar and wait and see. The reference range for RB05 is 3040 - 3100 yuan [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 746.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil, a decrease in arrivals, and low port inventory [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 730 - 760 yuan [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1117 yuan/ton, up 32.5 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in molten iron production, the implementation of the first round of coke price increase, and high - level port clearance [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in coking coal and wait and see. The reference range for JM05 is 1090 - 1150 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: A丰产 expectation in South America, strong US soybean crushing and export expectations [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are strong. Pay attention to US soybean exports and South American production realization. The domestic market may oscillate strongly in the short term but lacks upward momentum in the medium term [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices fell, while spot prices continued to rise [6]. - **Fundamentals**: More than 60% of grain sales completed, low port and downstream inventory, and losses in downstream industries [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the futures price to oscillate strongly due to limited supply and downstream restocking [6]. Edible Oils - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose, driven by the increase in crude oil prices [6]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in February production and exports in Malaysia, and an expected decrease in end - February inventory [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The edible oil market is in a weak cycle but may rebound in the short term due to rising crude oil prices. Pay attention to crude oil prices and production in the producing areas [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: ICE US cotton futures prices continued to fall, while Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated narrowly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Smooth cotton sowing in Brazil, stable domestic cotton prices, and an increase in cotton yarn prices [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at low prices. The reference price range is 15000 - 15600 yuan/ton [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices were weak, and spot prices slightly decreased [6]. - **Fundamentals**: It is the traditional off - season for egg demand, and supply is sufficient [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the futures price to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices were weak, and spot prices continued to fall [6]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in the number of pigs for slaughter after the Spring Festival and a seasonal off - season for demand [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the futures price to oscillate weakly [6]. Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract continued to rise significantly. The basis strengthened, and market trading was good [7]. - **Fundamentals**: No new device production in the first half of the year, a slowdown in domestic supply pressure, and an improvement in downstream demand [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term, with the upside limited by the import window. Short at high prices in the medium term [7]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract closed at 4939 yuan/ton, up 2.4% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Affected by rising oil prices, high social inventory, and weak demand [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see due to balanced supply and weak demand and low valuation [7]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PXCFR China price was $1019/ton, and PTA East China spot price was 5525 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: High - level supply of PX, restart of some PTA devices, and PTA inventory accumulation [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Keep waiting and see in the PTA inventory - accumulation pattern [7]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The fg05 contract closed at 1053 yuan/ton, up 0.6% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in supply, weak demand, and high inventory [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy glass and sell soda ash [7]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main PP contract continued to rise significantly. The basis strengthened, and market trading was good [8]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in new device production in the short term, a reduction in supply pressure, and an improvement in downstream demand [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term, with the upside limited by the import window. Short at high prices in the medium term [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The East China spot price of MEG was 3894 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Potential supply shortages due to geopolitical conflicts, and expected inventory reduction in March [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: SC crude oil had three consecutive daily limit - up, and the delivery cost had a high premium compared to Brent [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, especially the situation in Iran, may affect the supply of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Participate in trading through options to control risks [8]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract continued to rise significantly. The market trading atmosphere was good [9]. - **Fundamentals**: An improvement in the pure - benzene supply - demand pattern, inventory reduction of styrene, and an improvement in downstream start - up rate but increased losses [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term, following the cost (crude oil) fluctuations. Go long on styrene at low prices in the second quarter [9]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract closed at 1219 yuan/ton, up 2.2% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Rising prices due to increased overseas costs, large supply, and inventory accumulation [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see due to increased supply and weak demand and low valuation [9].

| | | ■度策略参考 发布日期:20 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业板块 | 品神 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 短期内,关注中东战事的演变,若战事快速了结,对标2025年6月 | | | | | 13日,以色列袭击伊朗核设施。6月24日伊以签订停火协议,伊以 冲突结束，股指经历了震荡调整后,市场情绪快速恢复,向上突 | | 宏观金融 | 股指 | 震荡 | 破打开上行趋势。除此以外,国内"两会"临近,增量政策与维 稳预期对股指形成支撑。预计股指短期震荡调整空间有限。若本 | | | | | 次中东局势未进一步恶化,则股指短期的调整将带来较好的多头 | | | 国债 | 震荡 | 布局机会。 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行示利率风险,近期关注日 | | | | | 本央行利率决策。 近期海外宏观利多推升铜价,但全球铜库存持续累库压制价格, | | | | | 预计短期铜价震荡运行。 | | | | | 近期中东局势升级,电解铝供应扰动提升的同时,市场情绪承 铝价震荡运行。 | | | 氧化铝 | | 国内氧化铝运行产能下降,但库存进一步累库,短期震荡运 ...

中东地区（包括海湾合作委员会国家和伊朗）2025年的电解铝产量约占全球 总产量（7,380 万吨）的 9%。我们预计当前的伊朗战争将从两个方面影响铝 供应：(1) 伊朗的铝产量（约 62 万吨）约占 2025 年全球总产量的 0.8%，如 果伊朗的电力基础设施和物流系统遭到破坏，将会对铝生产造成不利影响； (2) 霍尔木兹海峡的封锁将影响整个中东地区氧化铝和铝土矿的运输，同时 也会影响该地区的铝出口。美国总统特朗普透露空袭可能持续四周。我们预 计供应链不稳将支撑铝价。我们认为中国宏桥（1378 HK，买入）将从中受 益。我们同时看好创新实业（2788 HK，买入），公司在沙特阿拉伯的产能 仍处于建设阶段，因此我们预计当前的局势不会对公司产生太大影响。 （链接） 2026 年 3 月 3 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业点评 全球市场观察 行业点评 电解铝行业 - 中东地区潜在的供应受限将支撑铝价 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | ...

2026年03月03日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周一贵金属市场冲高回落，以伦敦金计价的国际金价涨 0.82%至 5382 美元/盎司，以伦敦银计价 的国际银价 4.84%至 89.28 美元/盎司。 基本面：特朗普称不达目标不停战，不排除"必要时"对伊朗派遣美军地面部队；伊朗高官拉里贾尼表示不 会与美国进行谈判；卡塔尔企业遇袭后暂停全球最大 LNG 出口厂生产；美国联邦上诉法院驳回特朗普政府关 税退税延期相关请求；美国 2 月 ISM 制造业指数连续两个月扩张，价格指数飙升至近四年新高。国内黄金 ETF 小幅流出；COMEX 黄金库存为 1031.6 吨，-4.7 吨；上期所黄金库存为 105.1 吨，维持不变，SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓为1101.3吨，维持不变，；伦敦黄金库存1月底9155.8吨，12月底为 9103吨；COMEX白银库存为11120.3 吨，-86.1 吨；上期所白银库存为 309.4 吨，+2.8 吨；iShares 白银 ETF 持仓为 15902.2 吨，-90.2 吨；金交 所白银上周库存 450 吨，-43 吨 ...

2026年03月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘政治冲突爆发 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡格局 | 3 | | 铜：库存增加，限制价格上方空间 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 | 9 | | 锡：震荡调整 | 10 | | 铝：偏强运行 | 11 | | 氧化铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：行情走势较为纠结 | 13 | | 钯：预计盘整 | 13 | | 镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性 | 15 | | 不锈钢：矿端矛盾边际增加，成本支撑重心上移 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：供需偏强，关注底部支撑 | 17 | | 工业硅：关注市场情绪扰动 | 19 | | 多晶硅：偏弱震荡格局 | 19 | | 铁矿石：预期现实博弈，矿价震荡 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 22 | | 硅铁：资金与现实博弈，价格偏强震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：资金与现实博弈，价格偏强震荡 | 24 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 焦煤： ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2026 年 3 月 3 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-68808794 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 尿素 | 20号胶 | 合成橡胶 | | | | 烧碱 | 橡胶 | 原油 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 沥青 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 红枣 | 液化石油气 | 十债 | | | | 生猪 | 棉花 | 五债 | | | | | 棉纱 | 三十债 | | | | | PTA | 苹果 | | | | | 瓶片 | 塑料 | | | | | 乙二醇 | PVC | | | | | 对二甲苯 | 燃油 | | | | | 短纤 | 甲醇 | | | | | 白糖 | | | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-03-03 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2604 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 强势 | 强势运行 | 地缘风险扰动，原油强势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：强势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：强势运行 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ----------------------------------------------------------- ...

日度报告——综合晨报 全球五大航运巨头集体封航 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-03-03 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普再谈伊朗战争时间表：需要打多久就打多久 特朗普最新的表态不给伊朗战争设置时间框架，但是对于伊朗 政权更迭没有提及，市场风险偏好回升，美元指数继续上涨。 宏观策略（股指期货） A 股放量分化，成交额再破 3 万亿元 综 受美以与伊朗发动战争影响，油气、军工股大涨支撑指数，市 场成交大幅放量表明投机情绪仍浓厚。后续战争局势仍较难预 测，若短期内烈度快速下降，则市场风险偏好将修复。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展了 190 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 贵金属、化工等商品在高开低走后再度出现拉升，另外市场对 于两会期间降准降息的预期也略有升温，期债上涨。 有色金属（铜） 能源化工（液化石油气） 卡塔尔能源设施遭袭 液化天然气出口面临中断 卡塔尔的 LPG 主要是在天然气液化（LNG）处理过程中剥离出 的伴生产物，预计该气田 lpg 生产也同步暂停 航运指数（集装箱运价） 全球五大航运巨头集体封航 中东地缘局势升级，市场情绪快速升温，推动欧线期货全合约 涨停。 | ...