截至15日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1677.07点，较前一交易日下跌6.18点，跌幅0.37%；中 证商品期货指数收报2313.35点，较前一交易日下跌8.77点，跌幅0.38%。 中证商品期货价格指数日内走势图（来源：新华财经专业终端） 金属强势不改但压力略显 备货临近鸡蛋刷新年内新高 金属板块的强劲表现1月15日仍在延续，但随着内外部因素的边际松动，金属价格在连续飙涨之后的压 力也开始显现。截至当天收盘时，受印尼政策收紧提振的锡、镍分别收高8.30%和4.08%，分居涨幅排 行前两位，但较盘中高点分别回落了约2%和超3%。 分析来看，在AI、能源转型等长期需求强预期和短期光伏"抢出口"带动短期需求的背景下，锡供应端隔 夜传出印尼将2026年生产配额设定在6万吨左右的消息，这一配额数量明显低于市场预期，将进一步收 紧全球锡的供需面。受此影响，14日夜盘时段，沪锡跟随伦锡飙升，盘中一度涨近11%。不过，机构提 示，尽管锡的新增需求预期旺盛，但传统需求的现状却持续疲弱，且锡价的大幅上涨进一步加大对消费 的抑制作用，基本面的疲弱与投机情绪的高涨形成对比，使得锡价短期大幅波动风险增加。值得关注的 是，针对 ...

金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 每日精选： 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、硅铁、锰硅 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@gf.com.cn ...

日度报告——综合晨报 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 中国 12 月出口增 6.6%，进口增 5.7% [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-15 美国最高法院再次未就特朗普关税案作出裁决 美联储官员释放按兵不动的信号，短期降息不太可能，美元指 数维持震荡。 宏观策略（黄金） 美国对进口半导体加征 25%关税 综 金价震荡收涨，白银大涨，资金对白银和有色金属的做多情绪 高涨，市场风险偏好下降，美国 12 月零售销售和 PPI 好于预期， 美联储降息意愿下降，短期内市场缺乏增量资金。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 中国 12 月出口增 6.6%，进口增 5.7% 报 沪深京交易所上调融资保证金比例，释放降温信号，带动股市 放量回调。展望后市，虽然短期震荡在所难免，但慢牛长牛格 局依然延续，春季躁动也仍有待继续推进。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 2025 年中国出口钢材 11901.9 万吨 钢价延续震荡，从 12 月出口数据看，年末有抢出口迹象。而随 着出口许可证制度落地，或对出口形成一定压制。成材基本面 压力犹存，受外围金属情绪带动或有限。 农产品（白糖） 12 月份我国进口食糖数量预计高于 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Coke, Coal [1] - Bearish: None - Neutral: Index, Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum, Palladium, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, PTA, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] - Cautious: Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, PTA, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] - Wait - and - See: Polysilicon [1] Core Views - The stock index may continue to rise after short - term shock adjustment, and the bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks [1]. - Copper and aluminum prices are expected to be strong, while alumina prices will fluctuate. Zinc and nickel prices have uncertainties due to policies and fundamentals, and short - term operations should be cautious [1]. - The prices of lithium carbonate, rebar, and other products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment, showing a state of shock or limited upward space [1]. - The prices of agricultural products such as palm oil, cotton, and sugar are affected by supply - demand relationships and market news, with different trends [1]. - The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as policies, supply - demand, and cost, and different products have different trends [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index and Bond Futures - Stock Index: After a volume - based breakthrough, it may continue to rise after short - term shock adjustment as the market trading volume remains high [1]. - Bond Futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: With improved market sentiment and tight ore supply, copper prices are expected to remain strong [1]. - Aluminum: Limited industrial drive, but restricted supply and improved macro - sentiment are expected to drive prices higher [1]. - Alumina: There is a large release space on the supply side, but the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Zinc: The cost center is stable, but there is inventory pressure. Although the price has made up for losses due to good macro - sentiment, the upside space is limited [1]. - Nickel: The market's concern about supply has decreased, but policy implementation is uncertain. The price is in high - level shock, and short - term operations should be cautious [1]. - Stainless Steel: The raw - material price is rising, and the inventory is decreasing slightly. The price is in high - level shock, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - Tin: The price has risen due to good macro - sentiment and supply disturbances, but there is pressure on the fundamentals, and long - term low - position buying is recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks, the Fed's independence crisis, and lower - than - expected CPI have boosted prices, but the price fluctuations are large [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: The macro - environment is favorable, but the fundamentals are not as solid as precious metals. In the short term, they will fluctuate widely, and long - term low - position buying of platinum is recommended [1]. Industrial Metals - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing, while southwest production is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased in December [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: In the traditional peak season of new - energy vehicles, the demand for energy storage is strong, but the spot market is weak, and the price is in shock [1]. - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: High production and inventory suppress price increases, and the transmission of futures price increases to the spot market is not smooth. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be participated in [1]. - Iron Ore: There is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1]. - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations, and supply may be disturbed by energy - consumption control and anti - involution [1]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The short - term market sentiment is warming, but the medium - term supply is excessive, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity - reduction" expectation continues to ferment, there may be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: After the release of the MPOB report, wait for the opportunity to buy when the origin reduces production and inventory and the biodiesel story unfolds. Short - term waiting is recommended [1]. - Cotton: The market is currently in a state of "with support but no driving force". Future factors such as policies, planting intentions, and weather should be concerned [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: The selling progress has slowed down but is still faster than the same period last year. The port inventory is low, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1]. - Soybean Meal: Affected by the USDA report, the internal market is expected to be weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to the soybean auction [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and there are uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuela [1]. - Fuel Oil and Bitumen: They follow the trend of crude oil, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [1]. - PTA and Short Fiber: The PX market has risen, and domestic PTA maintains high - level operation. The short - fiber price follows the cost [1]. - Styrene: The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on the overseas market [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, but the cost support is strong, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices [1]. - PVC: The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the market will trade based on fundamentals. The fundamentals are weak, and the price is at a low level [1]. - LPG: The import cost is supported, and the risk premium has increased. The inventory is expected to decrease, and the downstream demand is expected to increase [1]. Others - Container Shipping on the European Route: It is expected to peak in mid - January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 商品 | | | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | | | 5月-1月 | | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2026/01/13 | -100 | 4 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 0 . | | 2026/01/12 | -101 | 4 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 0 . | | 2026/01/09 | -102 | 4 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 0 . | | 2026/01/08 | -104 | 4 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 0 . | | 2026/01/07 | -108 | 4 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 0 . | www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 期货研究报告 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2026 年 1 月 14 日） 一、动力煤 期货 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 每日精选： 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、硅铁、锰硅 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@gf.com.cn ...

[T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-14 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国 12 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.7%符合预期 美国 12 月 CPI 符合预期，缓解市场通胀担忧，周期板块相对跑 赢，指数高位震荡。 宏观策略（黄金） 美联储穆萨勒姆：通胀水平更接近 3%而非 2% 综 金价震荡收跌，鲍威尔被刑事诉讼以及地缘政治风险推动的上 涨势头缓解，美国 12 月核心 CPI 略低于预期，但美联储萨勒姆 的讲话表明短期降息意愿不高，金价回吐涨幅。 日度报告——综合晨报 美国 12 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.7%符合预期 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 A 股放量回调，止步 17 连阳 报 A 股市场放量调整，前期热门的商业航天概念普跌，但创新药概 念涨幅较大。近期股市热度较高，监管层面出手稳定市场，A 股 或有震荡，但中期上涨趋势仍在。 农产品（棉花） USDA1 月报告:美国及全球棉花期末库存下调 USDA1 月报告下调 25/26 美及全球期末库存，但报告调整幅度 不大，未改变美棉偏宽松、全球松平衡的供需格局，且市场更 关注需求及新作种植意向，报告利多影响有限。 有色金属（锌） 1 月 12 日【 ...

澳大利亚工程院外籍院士、南方科技大学创新创业学院院长刘科提出，"可油、可醇、可电"的混动模 式，是适合中国的汽车能源方案。甲醇不仅可用于汽车，还能满足低空经济、船舶动力、海岛发电等场 景需求。他认为，智能电网与低碳液体管网的有机结合，可逐步将当前的煤炭/石油经济转变为以可再 生能源为主导的绿色电力和甲醇经济。 博世智能出行集团中国区董事会总裁王伟良表示，甲醇有望成为兼具经济性和低碳优势的重要解决方 案。他解释说，在多样化的应用场景驱动下，商用车没有所谓的最优动力路线，只有最合适的解决方 案。例如，在城市配送和短途运输等线路相对固定、充电基础设施逐步完善、电价优势明显的场景，纯 电动方案竞争力较强；而在交通基础设施相对薄弱、电网覆盖不足、长途干线运输占主导的地区，柴油 和天然气仍将长期存在。 中化新网讯 1月7日，第二届绿色甲醇能源产业发展大会在温州召开。与会的能源、经济、汽车等领域 的专家提出，绿色甲醇作为汽车低碳转型的优选路径值得期待。 中国汽车技术研究中心首席专家、中国汽车战略与政策研究中心副主任方海峰认为，能源的绿色低碳转 型会深刻影响汽车产业的技术路线选择，而汽车产业降碳同样依赖于能源的低碳化和清洁化 ...

2026年01月13日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：周一贵金属价格继续走高，伦敦金盘中触及 4600 美元/盎司，伦敦银价站上 85 美元/盎司。 | | 金 | 基本面：美国总统特朗普在社交媒体发文称，任何与伊朗进行商业往来的国家都将面临 25%的关税；特朗普 | | 属 | 向最高法院喊话，若就关税作出不利裁决，美将无法负担代价；白宫新闻秘书称特朗普周一否认指示调查鲍 | | | 威尔，但强调总统有权批评美联储主席。国内黄金 ETF 继续小幅流入 0.4 吨，COMEX 黄金库存为 1129.3 吨， | | | 维持不变；上期所黄金库存为 94.7 吨，维持不变，SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓为 1064.6 吨，维持不变；COMEX | | | 白银库存为 13605.1 吨，-70.1 吨；上期所白银库存为 649.6 吨，+29.4 吨；iShares 白银 ETF 持仓为 16347.5 | | | 吨，+39.5 吨；金交所上周库存 818.5 吨，-44 吨；伦敦 12 月末白银库存从 271 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 每日精选： 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、硅铁、锰硅 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@gf.com.cn ...