Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Trump's attitude towards China's tariffs has eased, but the issue remains unresolved. Direct textile and clothing orders to the US are still on hold, and the expectation of polyester production cuts suppresses market sentiment. PX and PTA maintain low valuations and inventory reduction, but the rebound is limited due to weak gasoline and demand expectations. The 5 - 9 month spread has strengthened recently, and attention should be paid to crude oil and macro - changes [1] - For short - fiber, the US tariff situation is improving, market sentiment is stable, but the willingness to chase high prices is insufficient. Some yarn mills plan to have holidays during the May Day period, and the raw material stocking intention is average, with the market in a volatile consolidation [1] - For PR, the tariff policy has little impact on bottle - chip demand. The bottle - chip load has returned to a high level, and the processing margin of bottle - chip factories is limited. The market price is expected to follow the raw material cost [1] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Relevant figures include TA main contract & basis & inter - period spread trend, PX main contract trend & basis & inter - period spread, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [10][11][13] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Include toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Show China PTA load, South Korea PTA load, Taiwan PTA load, China PX load, and Asian PX load [29][32][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Comprise PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipts inventory, PX warehouse receipts inventory, and PF warehouse receipts inventory [37][40][41] Downstream Polyester Load - Include filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom, texturing, and dyeing start - up rates [48][50][60] PF Detailed Data - Include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [70][72][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [91][93][101] Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term market sentiment has improved, and PX/PTA/PF/PR are stable [5] - Cross - variety: None [5] - Cross - period: None [5]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 4 月 29 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 MEG： 多 PTA 空 MEG 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-04-25 | 6230 | 4400 | 4160 | 6046 | 3477 | | 2025-04-24 | 6166 | 4370 | 4179 | 6028 | 3446 | | 2025-04-23 | 6224 | 4408 | 4250 | 6092 | 3507 | | 2025-04-22 | 6050 | 4306 | 4180 | 5982 | 3456 | | 2025-04-21 | 6110 | 4350 | 4205 | 6010 | 3419 | | 日度变化 | 1.0 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年4月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收涨，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差走强后回落。贸易商商谈为主，个别主流供应商报盘。 5月主港在09升水80~140成交，个别偏高在09升水150有成交，个别5月上主港在05升水20成交，价格商谈区间在4555~4620附 近。今日主流现货基差在09+105。中性 2、基差：现货4570，05合约基差90，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：PTA工厂库存4.39天，环比增加0.03天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏空 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：PTA自身装 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PX**: Adopt a strategy of going long on PX and short on SC. Short - term rebound is expected, but there is pressure in the medium - term. With low processing fees, overseas device maintenance is increasing, and the Asian PX operating rate has dropped to 68.6%. In May, it will continue to be in the de - stocking phase. In June, new devices are expected to be put into operation, and it is advisable to take long positions in the PX calendar spread when it is low [4]. - **PTA**: Short - term rebound is expected, but there is still pressure in the medium - term. Adopt a strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Terminal demand expectations have improved, polyester sales have improved, and inventory pressure has eased. After factory maintenance, PTA spot supply and demand are tight, and the basis and calendar spread have risen significantly. However, it is not recommended to chase the high basis and calendar spread, and it is advisable to gradually take profits before the holiday [4]. - **MEG**: Adopt a strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Do not chase the high calendar spread. With the exemption of ethane tariffs, domestic supply will be sufficient, and it is difficult to reduce port inventory. Short - term attention should be paid to short positions in the calendar spread when it is high [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Changes**: On April 25, 2025, compared with the previous day, PX, PTA, PF, and SC prices increased by 1.0%, 0.7%, 0.3%, and 0.9% respectively, while MEG decreased by 0.5% [1]. - **Calendar Spread Changes**: The daily changes in the calendar spreads of PX (5 - 9), PTA (5 - 9), MEG (5 - 9), PF(5 - 6), and PX - EB05 on April 25, 2025, were 60, 48, 6, 2, and 176 respectively [1]. - **Inter - variety Spread Changes**: The daily changes in the spreads of PTA05 - 0.65PX05, PTA05 - MEG05, PTA05 - PF05, PF05 processing margin, and PTA05 - LU05 on April 25, 2025, were - 3, 91, 58, - 42, and - 5 respectively [1]. - **Basis and Spread Changes**: The daily changes in the basis of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and the PX - naphtha spread on April 25, 2025, were - 0, 68, - 6, - 28, and 8 respectively [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Changes**: On April 25, 2025, the PTA warehouse receipts decreased by 10,072 compared with the previous day, and the short - fiber warehouse receipts decreased by 86 [1]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Contract Pre - collection**: The May PX contract pre - collection of a major domestic supplier is 6600 yuan/ton on an acceptance basis, and the PTA contract pre - collection is 4600 yuan/ton on an acceptance basis [3]. - **Device Maintenance**: A 225 - million - ton PTA device in the Northeast has stopped as planned, with an expected maintenance period of about 6 weeks. A 30 - million - ton IPA device in East China has stopped for maintenance, with an expected duration of about 1 month [3]. - **Market Transactions**: On April 27, PTA futures were closed. Driven by polyester sales, the PTA spot negotiation atmosphere was fair. The May basis jumped, and some suppliers stopped offering. MEG futures were also closed, and market negotiation was scarce. The average sales rate of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was about 70%, and the average sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber was 70% [3][4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **PX**: Overseas device maintenance is increasing, and the Asian PX operating rate has dropped to 68.6%. Domestic devices such as Zhejiang Petrochemical's PX have restarted, and some domestic devices have maintenance plans. In May, it will be in the de - stocking phase, and new devices are expected to be put into operation in June [4]. - **PTA**: Terminal demand expectations have improved, polyester sales have improved, and inventory pressure has eased. Factory maintenance is concentrated, and PTA spot supply and demand are tight. The basis and calendar spread have risen significantly, but it is not recommended to chase the high [4]. - **MEG**: With the exemption of ethane tariffs, domestic device operating rates may rise, and domestic supply will be sufficient. Import volume is high from April to May, and it is difficult to reduce port inventory. Short - term attention should be paid to short positions in the calendar spread when it is high [5].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No information provided Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Upstream Cost - Spot price of naphtha CFR Japan on 2025/4/24 was $582.00 per ton, down 1.19% from the previous value [1] - Ethylene price index in Northeast Asia on 2025/4/23 was $791.00 per ton, with no change [1] - Ex - factory average price of ethylene oxide in East China on 2025/4/25 was 6,800 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - Spot price of methanol MA on 2025/4/24 was 2,402.50 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - Pit - mouth price of lignite (Q3500 in Inner Mongolia) on 2025/4/24 was 300 yuan per ton, with no change [1] 2. Futures and Spot Prices - DCE EG主力合约收盘价 on 2025/4/24 was 4,179 yuan per ton, down 1.67% from the previous value [1] - DCE EG主力合约结算价 on 2025/4/24 was 4,194 yuan per ton, down 0.26% [1] - DCE EG near - month contract closing price and settlement price on 2025/4/24 were both 4,522 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - Market mid - price of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China on 2025/4/24 was 4,220 yuan per ton, down 0.71% [1] - CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol (MEG) (intra - day) on 2025/4/24 was 4,205 yuan per ton, down 1.41% [1] - CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol (MEG) (outer - market) on 2025/4/24 was $490.00 per ton, with no change [1] - Near - far month price difference on 2025/4/24 was 328 yuan per ton, up 11 yuan [1] - Basis on 2025/4/24 was 26 yuan per ton, up 11 yuan [1] 3. Startup Conditions - Overall ethylene glycol startup rate on 2025/4/24 was 57.45%, up 0.23% [1] - Ethylene glycol (petroleum - based) startup rate on 2025/4/24 was 64.88%, up 0.37% [1] - Ethylene glycol (coal - based) startup rate on 2025/4/24 was 46.17%, with no change [1] - PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories on 2025/4/24 was 90.11%, with no change [1] - PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms on 2025/4/24 was 61.25%, down 2.18% [1] 4. Cash Flow Situation - After - tax gross profit of MTO - made MEG on 2025/4/24 was - 2,018.50 yuan per ton, down 24.34 yuan [1] - After - tax gross profit of coal - based syngas method devices on 2025/4/24 was 404.42 yuan per ton, down 24.34 yuan [1] 5. Polyester Prices - Price index of polyester on 2025/4/24 was 8,375 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - CCFEI price index of DTY on 2025/4/24 had no information on price change [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester POY on 2025/4/24 was 6,675 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber on 2025/4/24 was 6,270 yuan per ton, up 0.16% [1] - CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips on 2025/4/24 was 5,650 yuan per ton, with no change [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - The supply of industrial silicon last week was 70,000 tons, remaining flat week-on-week. The demand was 84,000 tons, a 47.37% increase week-on-week, indicating a rising demand. The inventory of polysilicon and silicone was at a high level, while the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots was at a low level. The cost support in Xinjiang's dry season has increased [6]. - The basis on April 24 showed that the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,500 yuan/ton, with a basis of 625 yuan/ton for the 06 contract, indicating a spot premium over futures, which is a bullish signal. The social inventory decreased by 0.16% week-on-week, the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 6.44%, and the main port inventory decreased by 1.44%, which is a bearish signal. The MA20 of the disk was downward, and the futures price of the 06 contract closed below the MA20, which is a bearish signal. The net position of the main players was short, with a decrease in short positions, which is a bearish signal [6]. - The supply schedule is expected to decrease, remaining around the historical average level. The demand is expected to recover, and the cost support is expected to increase. The industrial silicon 2506 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,790 - 8,960 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - The production of polysilicon last week was 22,300 tons, a 2.76% increase week-on-week. The production schedule for April is predicted to be 100,900 tons, a 4.99% increase month-on-month. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is expected to continue to increase, indicating a continuous recovery in overall demand. The cost support is expected to remain stable [9]. - The basis on April 24 showed that the price of N-type polysilicon was 42,000 yuan/ton, with a basis of 2,625 yuan/ton for the 06 contract, indicating a spot premium over futures, which is a bullish signal. The weekly inventory was 251,000 tons, a 2.86% increase week-on-week, remaining at a high level compared to the same period in history, which is a bearish signal. The MA20 of the disk was downward, and the futures price of the 06 contract closed below the MA20, which is a bearish signal. The net position of the main players was long, with a decrease in long positions, which is a bullish signal [10]. - The supply schedule is expected to continue to increase, and the demand is expected to continue to recover. The cost support is expected to remain stable. The polysilicon 2506 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 38,880 - 39,870 yuan/ton [9]. Overall Market - The report indicates that the market is affected by factors such as cost support, production and supply schedules, and demand recovery. There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market, and the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to fluctuate within a certain range [6][9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply remained stable last week, while the demand increased significantly. The inventory situation varied among different downstream products, and the cost support increased. The basis, inventory, disk, and main player positions provided a mixed set of signals. The price is expected to fluctuate in a specific range [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The production and demand are both showing an upward trend. The cost support is stable, and the basis, inventory, disk, and main player positions also present a combination of bullish and bearish signals. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Industrial Silicon**: The report provides detailed data on the production, demand, inventory, cost, and price of industrial silicon, as well as the production, inventory, and price of its downstream products such as silicone, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [6][16][18]. - **Polysilicon**: The report presents data on the production, demand, inventory, cost, and price of polysilicon, as well as the production, inventory, and price of its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [9][10][18]. 3.3 Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: The report shows the price, basis, inventory, and production data of different contracts of industrial silicon, as well as the price and production data of its downstream products [16]. - **Polysilicon**: The report provides the price, production, inventory, and cost data of polysilicon and its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [18]. 3.4 Downstream Product Analysis - **Silicone**: The report analyzes the production, cost, price, and inventory of silicone, including DMC, 107 glue, silicone oil, and raw rubber. It also shows the import and export data of DMC [40][42][45]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The report examines the price, supply, inventory, and production of aluminum alloy, including waste aluminum recycling, aluminum scrap imports, and the production of primary and recycled aluminum alloy ingots. It also analyzes the demand for aluminum alloy in the automotive and wheel hub industries [48][51][52]. - **Polysilicon**: The report studies the production, cost, price, and inventory of polysilicon, as well as the production, inventory, and price of its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. It also analyzes the cost, profit, and supply-demand balance of polysilicon components [58][61][75]. 3.5 Cost and Supply-Demand Balance - **Industrial Silicon**: The report analyzes the cost of industrial silicon production in different regions, including Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang. It also presents the weekly and monthly supply-demand balance data of industrial silicon [32][34][37]. - **Polysilicon**: The report shows the cost trend of the polysilicon industry and the monthly supply-demand balance data of polysilicon [58][61]. 3.6 Power Generation and Grid Connection - The report analyzes the new power generation capacity, power generation structure, and new grid-connected capacity of photovoltaic power stations, including solar, wind, nuclear, thermal, and hydropower. It also shows the monthly power generation data of solar energy [77].

2025年04月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：中期趋势偏弱，多PX空PTA | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：多SC空PTA | 2 | | MEG：中期趋势偏弱，多PTA空MEG止盈 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：震荡承压 | 7 | | 沥青：油价暂稳，区间震荡 | 9 | | LLDPE：低位震荡 | 11 | | PP：价格震荡，成交偏弱 | 13 | | 烧碱：反弹难持续 | 14 | | 纸浆：宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 18 | | 甲醇：震荡承压 | 20 | | 尿素：震荡运行 | 22 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 24 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 26 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 27 | | PVC：低位震荡 | 30 | | 燃料油：夜盘震荡上行，下方仍有支撑 | 32 | | 低硫燃料油：暂时弱于高硫，外盘高低硫价差小幅收窄 | 32 | | 集运指数（欧线）：低位震荡，10-12反套轻仓持有 | 33 | | 短纤：短期震荡市，中期仍有压力 | 37 | | 瓶 ...

4月14日盘中，苯乙烯期货主力合约偏强震荡，最高上探至7546.00元。截止发稿，苯乙烯主力合约报 7520.00元，涨幅1.69%。 苯乙烯期货主力涨超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 五矿期货 苯乙烯短期触底反弹看待 瑞达期货（002961） 苯乙烯后市价格存在回调的可能 五矿期货：苯乙烯短期触底反弹看待 伴随着特朗普宣布对大部分经济体（中国除外）暂停实施对等关税政策（仅生效13个小时），期限为90 天以供谈判，宏观利空短期告一段落，后续将持续跟踪贸易谈判进展。就当前而言，纯苯裂差BZN历史 同期低位的估值给了盘面拉涨的空间，最新苯乙烯周产量出现大幅下滑，厂库累库港口去库，供给端4 月20日涉及21万吨产能检修，前期检修装置陆续在5月底6月初重启，故我们认为苯乙烯短期触底反弹看 待。中长期来讲，后市在贸易摩擦需求萎靡的背景下，5月底6月初伴随着苯乙烯装置复产，我们仍旧维 持苯乙烯单边逢高抛空的观点。操作建议：前空止盈离场。 瑞达期货：苯乙烯后市价格存在回调的可能 供应端，上周万华65万吨、浙石化60万吨装置停车检修，苯乙烯产量环比-6.64%至31.34万吨，产能利 用率环比- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The view is to wait for a long - entry opportunity for MEG, but the downside space may also be large. The recommended contract is eg2505. The logic is that although MEG inventory slightly accumulated in Q1 2025, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand driver is still upward under the current low port inventory. However, the cost of crude oil and coal prices has moved downward weakly. It is recommended to go long at low prices after the cost side stabilizes [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Upstream Prices - On April 2, 2025, compared with the previous day, the price of naphtha CFR Japan decreased by 1 to 645.00, the price of动力煤 (内蒙Q5500) remained unchanged at 495.00, the price of ethylene Northeast Asia remained unchanged at 855.00, and the price of methanol in Taicang decreased by 8 to 2571.00 [7]. 2. EG Each Process Profit - On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, MEG's import profit increased by 13.31 to - 51.65 yuan/ton, oil - made profit increased by 72.27 to - 1168.02 yuan/ton, coal - made profit increased, ethylene - made profit increased by 65.41 to - 741.10 yuan/ton, methanol - made profit increased by 80.48 to - 1597.51 yuan/ton, and the weighted profit increased by 70.05 to - 803.66 yuan/ton [7]. 3. EG Basis, Spread and Position - On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, EG5 - month basis decreased by 2 to 41.00 [7]. 4. PF Basis and Profit - On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, the spot profit of direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased by 31.57 to 139.37, the closing price of PF2505 increased by 72 to 6662, the short - fiber main - contract disk profit decreased by 59.48 to 60.34, and the polyester staple fiber basis decreased by 72 to 88 [7]. 5. Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - For refineries with high MEG inventory worried about price drops, they can long eg2505 at 4500 with a 50% hedging ratio to hedge against risks [5]. - For traders, when establishing inventory and seeking to buy MEG at low prices, they can buy call options eg2505 - C - 4900 at 115 with a 50% ratio to prevent price increases; when having inventory and seeking to sell at high prices, they can short eg2505 at 4600 with a 50% ratio for short - term risk prevention [5]. - For terminal customers in need of polyester raw materials worried about price increases, they can buy call options eg2505 - C - 4900 at 115 with a 50% ratio [5].