Demand-Side Analysis - In August, the growth rate of cyclical demand dropped to 2.2%, significantly lower than the nominal GDP growth rate of Q2, indicating a potential need for policy support[3] - The composite PMI output index averaged 50.3% in July and August, suggesting a possible policy response if it continues to decline in September[3] Policy Direction - Current low inflation suggests that policy measures should focus on boosting terminal demand without increasing future industrial supply[4] - Possible directions include promoting service consumption and advancing major projects from the 14th Five-Year Plan[4] Economic Data Overview - In August, industrial production growth was 5.2%, while the service sector's production index was 5.6%[5] - Retail sales growth year-on-year was 3.4%, down from 3.7% in the previous month[5] - Fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year decline of 7.1%, compared to a previous decline of 5.3%[5] Real Estate Sector - Real estate sales area decreased by 10.6% year-on-year in August, worsening from a 7.8% decline in July[5] - Real estate investment in August fell by 19.4% year-on-year, indicating ongoing sector challenges[5] Employment and Inflation - The urban survey unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in August, reflecting seasonal trends[26] - CPI was down 0.4% year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 2.9%, indicating deflationary pressures[24]

国投证券宏观定期报告 周度经济观察 ————如何理解 8 月经济数据 袁方1张端怡2 2025 年 09 月 16 日 内容提要 8 月经济延续了 7 月的表现，总需求不足是当前经济的主要特征。投资、消 费、出口的全面减速意味着经济下行的压力趋于增加，经济体自发企稳的难度在 上升，未来经济的走向主要取决于稳增长政策的力度。实际增速回落、价格触底 抬升或许是未来一段时间里经济的状态，而名义增速的回升面临诸多不确定性。 考虑到政府债的发行高峰已经过去，未来社融的增速可能更多与信贷投放 的情况相关，这意味着年内社融的高点也已经出现，未来存在逐步回落的风险。 在美国非农数据超预期走弱以及通胀数据温和回升的背景下，市场降息预 期维持高位。当前市场预期 2025 年美联储降息次数约为 3 次，9 月降息 25BP 的 概率较高。考虑到年内减税政策与降息的落地或对美国经济形成额外支撑，我们 认为美股有望延续偏强表现。 风险提示：（1）地缘政治风险 （2）政策出台超预期 1宏观分析师，yuanfang@essence.com.cn，S1450520080004 2宏观分析师，zhangdy2@essence.com.cn，S ...

Economic Growth Overview - In August, China's economic growth momentum slowed down, with both supply and demand sides experiencing a decline in growth rates. Analysts suggest that due to high base effects and tariff uncertainties, along with the waning effects of the "trade-in" policy, downward pressure on the domestic economy is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, necessitating new policies to stabilize investment and promote consumption to achieve the annual growth target of around 5% [1][11]. Production Sector Analysis - In August, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The service production index growth rate was 5.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1]. - The "anti-involution" policy is identified as a primary reason for the cooling of industrial production. The industrial production intensity has declined for two consecutive months, influenced by extreme weather and the effects of the "anti-involution" policy [2]. - The added value of upstream production sectors showed strong performance, with non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industries growing by 9.1% year-on-year, while coal mining and washing industries grew by 5.1% [2]. Demand Side Insights - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods and exports in USD grew by 3.4% and 4.4% year-on-year, respectively, both showing declines from the previous month [3]. - The retail sales growth rate has been declining for three consecutive months, primarily due to the diminishing effects of the "trade-in" policy. The largest month-on-month declines were seen in home appliances and communication equipment, with decreases of 14.4% and 7.6% respectively [3][5]. Investment Trends - Investment growth has slowed for five consecutive months, with real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments all experiencing varying degrees of decline [6]. - Infrastructure investment growth fell to 2.0% year-on-year for the first eight months, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. Manufacturing investment growth dropped to 5.1%, the lowest level since early 2021 [9]. - Analysts indicate that the decline in manufacturing investment is influenced by extreme weather and rising global trade uncertainties, which suppress the willingness of downstream enterprises to expand production [7]. Policy Recommendations - Analysts suggest that maintaining stable economic growth is becoming increasingly challenging, and timely policy adjustments are necessary. The potential for new incremental policies is anticipated, possibly by the end of September, including new policy financial tools and early allocation of local government debt quotas to improve infrastructure investment [12].

Consumption Data - In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, slowing from 3.7% in the previous month[2] - The retail sales growth was negatively impacted by a 2.3% decline in tobacco and alcohol sales, which reduced the overall growth rate by 0.03 percentage points[7] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly stimulated sales in home appliances and cultural office supplies, while oil and petroleum products saw negative growth due to global economic conditions[2] Real Estate Market - The sales area of commercial housing in August was 57.44 million square meters, down 11% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.03 percentage points compared to the previous month[17] - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the market and low consumer confidence[2] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate development funding sources was 8%, with personal mortgage loans down 10.5%[28] Investment Trends - From January to August 2025, fixed asset investment totaled 326,111 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, slowing by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 2%, but the overall investment environment remains challenging due to reduced government spending and ongoing market adjustments[30] - Manufacturing investment growth was recorded at 5.1%, but this was a decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in industrial investment[36] Economic Outlook - Industrial production growth for January to August was 6.2%, maintaining stability but facing challenges from insufficient domestic demand[39] - The urgency for macroeconomic adjustments has increased, with potential policy focuses on interest rate cuts and increased issuance of government bonds[44] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic macroeconomic policies and unexpected credit events[47]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Viewpoints - Infrastructure investment has been declining, with expectations for increased fiscal support in the future [6][12] - From January to August, narrow infrastructure investment increased by 2.0% year-on-year, while broad infrastructure investment increased by 5.9% year-on-year [2][12] - In August alone, narrow infrastructure investment decreased by 5.8% year-on-year, and broad infrastructure investment decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 1.8 percentage points [2][6] Summary by Sections Economic Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to August, narrow infrastructure investment totaled 12 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, and broad infrastructure investment totaled 16.3 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [12] - In August, narrow infrastructure investment was 1.5 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, while broad infrastructure investment was 2.1 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.2% [12] Investment Breakdown - In August, only electricity investment showed year-on-year growth, while investments in other sectors declined [12] - Transportation investment decreased by 5.4% in August, with railway investment down by 6.6% and road investment down by 11.6% [12] - Water conservancy investment saw a significant decline of 14.8%, with water management investment down by 29.8% [12] Cement Production - Cement production has been declining, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.8% from January to August, and a decrease of 6.2% in August alone [12] - The data indicates that construction activities may have slowed down due to seasonal factors [12] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth has declined for two consecutive months, with attention on the physical workload progress in September and potential fiscal increases [12] - As of September 12, 2023, a total of 3.4138 trillion yuan in bonds has been issued this year, which is 655.2 billion yuan more than the previous year [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The economic growth in August continued to slow down, with industrial production, consumption, and investment all showing signs of weakness. Insufficient effective demand remains the core contradiction [1][8]. - Given the slowdown in economic growth, macro - policies need to play a role in promoting economic recovery. Fiscal, consumption, and real - estate policies are expected to be further adjusted [2][9]. - The bond market is supported by insufficient effective demand and weak fundamental recovery, but potential risks from subsequent policy efforts need to be noted. Bond market fluctuations may depend more on marginal changes in institutional behavior and capital flows [3][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 8 月经济数据：经济增长再放缓 - In August, industrial增加值 was 5.2% year - on - year (expected 5.7%, previous value 5.7%), social retail sales were 3.4% year - on - year (expected 3.8%, previous value 3.7%), and fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year was 0.5% (expected 1.3%, previous value 1.6%). Manufacturing, infrastructure, and real - estate investment all declined [8]. 工业生产韧性尚存，环比动能略降 - In August, the year - on - year growth of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.2%, 0.5 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the cumulative growth from January to August was 6.2%. The growth of the service industry production index was 5.6%, slightly down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [14]. - The year - on - year growth rates of the electrical machinery and chemical industries increased significantly, while those of the special equipment and transportation equipment industries declined. The added value of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries was 8.1% and 9.3% respectively, 2.9 and 4.1 percentage points faster than the overall industrial added value [16][17]. - The output of emerging products such as robot reducers, industrial robots, 3D printing equipment, and industrial control computers and systems increased rapidly [17]. 消费增速延续回落，增量政策箭在弦上 - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, 0.3 percentage points lower than in July, the lowest increase this year. The growth rate of commodity retail sales decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and the growth rate of catering revenue increased by 1.0 percentage point but remained at a relatively low level [19]. - The effect of the "trade - in" policy weakened, and the subsidy method adjustment in some areas affected the policy's immediate pulling effect. The weak performance of commodity sales, especially the sluggish automobile consumption, also dragged down the overall retail sales [21][22]. - The Ministry of Finance and other departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on expanding service consumption policies [10][24]. 投资增速出现下行，继续低位磨底 - From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 0.5%, 1.1 percentage points lower than from January to July, showing a downward trend. The investment structure was characterized by "slowing manufacturing, declining infrastructure, and real - estate drag" [25]. - Manufacturing investment cumulative year - on - year was 5.1%. The policy effect of large - scale equipment renewal continued to be released, with equipment purchase investment growing rapidly. However, in the short term, corporate investment motivation may decline, and corporate medium - and long - term loans increased less year - on - year [28]. - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) cumulative year - on - year was 2.0%, with the construction progress of major traditional infrastructure projects slowing down. The high - temperature and rainy weather in August affected construction, and the capital in - place situation of some projects may not meet expectations due to local government debt - resolution pressure [28][29]. - Real - estate investment cumulative year - on - year was - 12.9%. The decline in sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing widened, and real - estate development investment reached the largest decline this year. The real - estate market was still in the stage of "trading price for volume", and real - estate relaxation policies may need to be actively implemented in the second half of the year [29].

Consumption - Retail sales growth continued to slow, with August year-on-year growth down 0.3 percentage points to 3.4%[2] - The multiplier effect of the "trade-in" policy for consumer goods may decline by 23%-32%, from 8.7 times to 5.9-6.7 times[2][18] Production - Industrial production in August increased by 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value[3] - Service sector production weakened slightly, down 0.2 percentage points to 5.6% year-on-year in August[3][21] Fixed Asset Investment - Real estate investment fell by 12.9% year-on-year in August, with a monthly decline of 19.5%[4][22] - Manufacturing investment decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 5.1%, marking five consecutive months of slowdown[4][27] Economic Outlook - Internal demand pressure is increasing, with expectations of policy support in Q4 to counteract economic slowdown[5][35] - Potential policy measures may include interest rate cuts, a 500 billion yuan policy financial tool, and support for service consumption and real estate[5][35] Risks - Risks include potential policy changes that may be less than expected and the possibility of an unexpected recession in the U.S. economy[6][36]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Insights - Infrastructure investment in August shows a narrowing year-on-year decline, with a focus on investment opportunities in the central and western regions [1] - Real estate sales area decreased by 4.7% year-on-year from January to August, with a significant drop of 11% in August alone [2] - Cement prices have started to rise after a prolonged period of decline, indicating potential recovery in profitability for cement companies [3] - The flat glass production showed a year-on-year decline of 4.5% from January to August, but the decline is narrowing, suggesting a potential improvement in demand [4] Summary by Sections Infrastructure Investment - From January to August, real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%, while narrow and broad infrastructure investments increased by 2% and 5.4% respectively [1] - Cumulative new special bonds reached 32,641.37 billion yuan, up 26.9% year-on-year, indicating strong support for infrastructure projects [1] Real Estate Market - New construction area decreased by 19.5% year-on-year from January to August, with a monthly decline of 19.8% in August [2] - Completion area saw a year-on-year decline of 17% from January to August, with a monthly drop of 21.2% in August [2] Cement Industry - Cement production from January to August was 1.105 billion tons, down 4.8% year-on-year, with August production at 148 million tons, a 6.2% decline [3] - The average cement price in August was 349 yuan per ton, showing a slight increase from earlier in the month [3] Glass Industry - Flat glass production from January to August was 64.818 million weight cases, down 4.5% year-on-year, with August production at 8.267 million weight cases, a 2% decline [4] - The market is showing signs of demand improvement as inventory levels decrease and production lines resume operations [4]

Production and Investment - In August, industrial added value grew by 5.2% year-on-year, while the service production index increased by 5.6%[7] - Fixed asset investment (FAI) for January to August saw a year-on-year increase of only 0.5%, with August's single-month FAI growth estimated to have dropped to -6.3%[7] - Manufacturing investment in August decreased by 1.3% year-on-year, with significant declines in equipment manufacturing investment[7] Consumption Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods in August rose by 3.4% year-on-year, marking the weakest performance since December of the previous year[7] - The contribution of national subsidies to consumption growth has weakened, with the subsidy amount for Q3 being 69 billion, lower than the 81 billion in previous quarters[7] - Optional consumption saw a decline, with year-on-year growth dropping to -0.1% in August[7] Economic Outlook - Entering the fourth quarter, economic growth faces increased pressure due to high base effects from last year, particularly in consumption and exports[7] - If demand remains weak and no clear measures are implemented, commodity prices may decline again[7] - The Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle may lead to new stimulus policies, but the timing and implementation remain uncertain[7] Risk Factors - External economic volatility poses a significant risk, particularly due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies[7] - The timing of domestic demand stimulus policies is uncertain, which may affect the sustainability of growth in the latter half of the year[7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic data for August 2025 shows that the industrial production has slowed down, the year - to - date cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment has continued to decline, and the month - on - month growth rate of social consumption is weaker than the seasonal average. The "anti - involution" policy's impact on the real economy is emerging, and the economy still faces difficulties and challenges in maintaining continuous recovery [2][10]. - Regarding the bond market, it is advisable to be optimistic. The 10Y Treasury bond yield is estimated to fluctuate around 1.7%. Convertible bonds are relatively high - quality assets in the long - term, but currently, the valuation is high, and more attention should be paid to the structure [3][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event On September 15, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics released the economic data for August 2025: the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in August was 5.2%, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to August was 0.5%, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in August was 3.4% [1][6][9]. 3.2 Economic Data Analysis - **Industrial Production**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size was 5.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from July, and the growth rate has declined for two consecutive months. The main reasons for the decline in the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value were the slowdown in manufacturing and the production of electricity, heat, gas, and water supply industries. The "anti - involution" policy's impact on the real economy began to appear [2][6][10]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 0.5%. The month - on - month growth rate in August was - 0.2%, continuing to decline. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of real estate, manufacturing, and general infrastructure investment all decreased. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment decreased by 9.3% [12][13]. - **Social Consumption**: In August 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.4%. The month - on - month growth rate was 0.17%, turning positive but weaker than the seasonal average. Among consumer goods, the year - on - year growth rate of necessary consumption declined, while some optional consumption items maintained good performance, and the year - on - year growth rate of catering consumption increased but was mediocre [16][19]. 3.3 Bond Market Views - **Interest - Rate Bonds**: Since August 2025, the yield of Treasury bonds has shown a significant divergence. The short - end yield has fluctuated little, while the long - end yield has increased significantly. Given the relatively abundant liquidity, the need for fundamental improvement, and the increasing cost - effectiveness of bonds compared to stocks, an optimistic attitude towards the bond market is recommended, with the 10Y Treasury bond yield expected to fluctuate around 1.7% [3][24]. - **Convertible Bonds**: As of September 12, 2025, the performance of the convertible bond market was slightly lower than that of the equity market. Currently, convertible bonds are in a stage of high - level valuation compression. In the long run, they are still relatively high - quality assets, but attention should be paid to the structure due to the high current valuation [25].