报告导读： 2025 年下半年，外需拖累逐步显现，叠加去年四季度基数偏高影响，预计宏观经济仍有温和回落压力。结构 来看，近两年依靠生产扩张与制造业投资对冲地产与内需偏弱，但也面临出口回落、产能利用率偏低、利润下滑 对供给端的掣肘。内需中的消费、地产、地方基建在一系列稳增长对冲举措落地的情况下，有所修复但斜率偏 平。外需方面，在贸易摩擦带来的需求前置效应减弱后，对国内经济的拖累作用逐步显现。政策方面，在"实施 更加积极有为的宏观政策"导向下，政策将延续稳增长、稳信心、稳资产的基调，择机落地积极的财政和货币工 具，加快提振内需，稳定地产，促进产业转型升级，推动经济稳中有进。 当前宏观面仍维持低需求低价格（通胀）与低库存的三低格局，政策底明确但超预期概率不高，外需不确定 性仍存，内部传统经济如地产行业仍在磨底。去年的年报观点里我们认为"库存周期上看，中美的周期共振先下 才能打出往上的空间"，而当下中美正处于去库共振阶段，整体商品需求侧支撑较弱。在政策底线明确的情况下， 人民币资产配置下半年进入债市高位震荡防阶段性变盘、股市捕捉结构性行情和商品底部震荡等待驱动的节奏。 内外部的政策刺激力度与贸易战谈判的结果构成宏观面 ...

Economic Performance - In May, China's industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 5.9% and down from 6.1% in the previous month[5] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in May grew by 6.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 5.0% and up from 5.1% in April[5] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to May rose by 3.7%, below the expected 3.9% and down from 4.0% in the previous month[5] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in May was 5.0%, down from 5.1% in the previous month[5] Industrial Production - The decline in industrial production growth is attributed to external factors, with a notable drop in export delivery values, which fell by 0.3 percentage points to 0.6%[9] - Domestic demand has provided support to industrial production, with the equipment manufacturing sector's added value growing by 9%, contributing 54.3% to industrial production[13] Consumer Spending - The growth in retail sales was driven by several factors, including ongoing consumption promotion policies and the early start of e-commerce sales events[19] - Key categories such as home appliances and communication equipment saw retail sales increase by 53% and 33% respectively, contributing 1.9 percentage points to total retail sales growth[19] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth has slowed, with manufacturing investment showing resilience at 7.8% year-on-year in May, despite a decline from the previous month[25] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) grew by 5.6% from January to May, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[29] Employment Situation - The urban surveyed unemployment rate has shown a marginal improvement, remaining at 5.0% for three consecutive months, indicating a stable employment situation[37] - However, structural pressures in the labor market persist, with the unemployment rate for migrant workers rising to 5.0%[37]

Group 1: Economic Resilience - In May, industrial production year-on-year growth decreased from 6.1% to 5.8%, maintaining a high growth rate, with a month-on-month growth of 0.61%[1] - Government bond net financing reached 6.3 trillion yuan in the first five months, an increase of 3.8 trillion yuan year-on-year[1] - M2 and social financing balances maintained year-on-year growth rates of 7.9% and 8.7%, respectively, indicating strong monetary support[1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Total infrastructure investment year-on-year growth decreased from 10.9% to 10.4%, still above the 2024 annual rate of 9.2%[2] - Manufacturing investment year-on-year growth was 8.5%, slightly down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, but still at a high level[2] - Public utility investment, including electricity, grew by 25.4% year-on-year, while water conservancy investment increased by 7.2%[2] Group 3: Real Estate Market - Real estate investment fell by 10.7% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - The area of newly started construction decreased by 22.8% year-on-year, indicating significant contraction in the sector[2] - The price index for second-hand homes in 70 large and medium-sized cities fell by 0.5% month-on-month, with the decline widening compared to the previous month[2] Group 4: Consumer Spending - In May, retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%[3] - The "trade-in" policy significantly boosted consumption, with home appliance and audio-visual equipment sales increasing by 53% year-on-year[3] - Social financing increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 2.05 trillion yuan, indicating robust financial support for the economy[3]

Economic Resilience - In May, industrial production year-on-year growth decreased from 6.1% to 5.8%, maintaining a high growth rate, with a month-on-month growth of 0.61%[1] - Domestic demand is effectively supporting industrial production as external demand gradually declines, with export growth rates of 8.1% and 4.8% in April and May respectively[9] - The government issued a net financing of 6.3 trillion yuan in bonds in the first five months, an increase of 3.8 trillion yuan year-on-year, supporting economic stability[9] Investment Trends - Total infrastructure investment growth rate decreased from 10.9% to 10.4% in the first five months, still above the 2024 annual target of 9.2%[2] - Manufacturing investment year-on-year growth is at 8.5%, slightly down from the previous month, with equipment investment growing at 17.3%[2] - Real estate investment fell by 10.7%, with housing starts down 22.8% and sales area down 2.9% year-on-year, indicating ongoing market challenges[2] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year in May, surpassing the market expectation of 4.9%[3] - The "trade-in" policy significantly boosted consumption, contributing an estimated 3 trillion yuan in sales in May alone[3] - Home appliance and audio-visual equipment sales surged by 53% year-on-year, driven by government subsidies[3] Financial Support - New social financing reached 2.29 trillion yuan in May, exceeding expectations and last year's figures, indicating strong financial support for the economy[3] - M2 money supply growth remained high at 7.9%, while social financing balance growth was at 8.7%[3] - There is still over 900 billion yuan of issuance space for special government bonds aimed at stabilizing growth, which will continue to support the "two new" and "two heavy" initiatives[3]

以旧换新资金进度约 42% 宏观研究团队 ——兼评 5 月经济数据 何宁（分析师） 陈策（分析师） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 2025 年 06 月 17 日 chence@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524020002 消费：以旧换新继续显效，测算 5 月补贴资金进度约 42% 1、5 月社零超预期，以旧换新继续显效，汽车抹去负贡献。5 月社零当月同比 大幅上行 1.3 个百分点至 6.4%，贡献拆解显示，限上商品、限下商品、限上餐 饮、限下餐饮分别贡献了 0.56、0.68、0.03、0.03 个百分点。限上商品具体来看： 以旧换新继续显效，家用电器、通讯器材分别贡献 0.27、0.20 个百分点；石油、 药品略有走弱；汽车对社零的边际贡献从 4 月的-0.5 个百分点转正至 0.03 个百 分点，可能导致市场线性递推、对 5 月社零预期不高。 2、测算 5 月以旧换新资金进度约 42%。根据商务部数据，2024 年消费品以旧 换新带动相关产品销售额超过 1.3 万亿元、对应中央补贴超过 1500 亿元，则比 例约为 8.7：1。以相同比例推算，截至 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强、贾东旭 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 4%；房地产投资累计同比-10.7%、预期-10.5%、前值-10.3%；新建商品房销售面积累计同 比-2.9%、前值-2.8%；工业增加值当月同比5.8%、预期5.7%、前值6.1%。 核心观点: 节假日分布差异、电商促销、出口与投资下滑，导致消费与生产背离 消费：电商促销前置与假期增加（同比去年多2天）带动需求集中释放。 5月社零增速创2024年 以来新高。有两大原因。1、电商促销前置带动限额以上零售反弹。家电（+14.2pct至53.0%） 和通讯器材（+13.1pct至33.0%）明显改善；2、5月假日（含周末）比去年同期多2天，直接驱 事件: 5月，社零当月同比6.4%、预期4.9%、前值5.1%；固投累计同比3.7%、预期4%、前值 动出行需求的集中释放。限额以下商品零售（+1.2pct至5.2%）和餐饮收入（+1.3pct至 13%）、服务业零售额（累计同比+0.1pct至5.2%）均改善。 投资：固定投资走弱，主因设备更新周期退坡与传统基建地产回落，但服务业投资继续提速。 5 月固定投资当月同比回落0.7 ...

分析人士指出，"以旧换新"等政策支持与"618"购物节的提前启动形成合力，共同推动了5月社零的快速增长。国家统计局数据显示，5月限额以上 单位家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额分别增长53.0%、33.0%、30.5%、25.6%。 东吴证券分析师芦哲表示，社零超预期，一部分原因在于提前启动的"618 购物节"和"国补"叠加，另一部分原因可能在于"抢国补"。"5-6月诸多地 区传出国补暂停的说法，尽管很多省份进行辟谣，但可能还是有不少消费者在此期间抢时间购买以旧换新产品。"芦哲在研报中写道。 记者 王珍 5月中国经济运行总体平稳，虽然投资继续放缓，但消费零售表现亮眼，工业生产也较有韧性。分析人士预计，二季度GDP同比增速有望继续达到 5%以上。 但他们同时指出，国内需求扩大内生动能尚需增强，叠加下半年外贸环境不确定性仍在，稳增长政策进一步发力的概率相对上升。监管层或在三 季度推出新一轮增量政策，以进一步激发市场活力。 5月份一系列数据中，社零表现尤为亮眼。当月社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%，比上月加快1.3个百分点，创2024年初以来的最高水平。 国家统计局数据显示，1-5 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强、贾东旭 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 4%；房地产投资累计同比-10.7%、预期-10.5%、前值-10.3%；新建商品房销售面积累计同 比-2.9%、前值-2.8%；工业增加值当月同比5.8%、预期5.7%、前值6.1%。 核心观点: 节假日分布差异、电商促销、出口与投资下滑，导致消费与生产背离 消费：电商促销前置与假期增加（同比去年多2天）带动需求集中释放。 5月社零增速创2024年 以来新高。有两大原因。1、电商促销前置带动限额以上零售反弹。家电（+14.2pct至53.0%） 和通讯器材（+13.1pct至33.0%）明显改善；2、5月假日（含周末）比去年同期多2天，直接驱 事件: 5月，社零当月同比6.4%、预期4.9%、前值5.1%；固投累计同比3.7%、预期4%、前值 动出行需求的集中释放。限额以下商品零售（+1.2pct至5.2%）和餐饮收入（+1.3pct至 13%）、服务业零售额（累计同比+0.1pct至5.2%）均改善。 投资：固定投资走弱，主因设备更新周期退坡与传统基建地产回落，但服务业投资继续提速。 5 月固定投资当月同比回落0.7 ...

宏观日报 | 2025-06-17 5月工业保持增长 中观事件总览 生产行业：5月工业保持增长。 1）5月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.8%，环比增长0.61%。总的来看， 5月份，随着政策组合效应持续释放，稳经济促发展效果显现，国民经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势，充分 展现了我国经济的韧性和活力。 服务行业：5月地产销售维持回落。 1）2025年5月份，70个大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下降， 同比降幅继续收窄。一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比由上月持平转为下降0.2%。二线城市新建商品住宅销售 价格环比由上月持平转为下降0.2%。三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.3%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。 数据来源：央视，iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）能源：国际油价持续回升。2）黑色：全商品近期短期回落。 下游：1）地产：一、二线城市商品房销售与去年同期持平，处近三年低位。2）服务：国内航班班次周期性减少。 市场定价：医药生物、化工行业信用利差近期小幅回落。 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责 ...

Economic Data Overview - In May, industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, down from 6.1% in April; retail sales grew by 6.4%, up from 5.1% in April; fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, down from 4.0% in April [1][7] - The economic data indicates a mild recovery with notable differentiation across sectors, characterized by strong consumption, stable production, and sluggish investment [1][7] Consumption Insights - Retail sales reached 41,326 billion yuan in May, marking a 6.4% year-on-year increase, the highest growth rate since 2024 [12][14] - Durable goods consumption surged significantly, with home appliances and audio-visual equipment retail sales soaring by 53.0% year-on-year, a record monthly growth [14] - The "old-for-new" policy and early promotions for the "618" shopping festival have stimulated consumer spending, but future consumption momentum may weaken as policy benefits diminish [17][12] Industrial Performance - The industrial production growth rate showed a slight decline, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in May, while maintaining a month-on-month growth of 0.6% [18][21] - High-tech manufacturing continues to lead industrial growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 2.8 percentage points [21][18] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.7% year-on-year in the first five months, with manufacturing investment at 8.5% and infrastructure investment at 5.6%, indicating resilience [24][27] - Real estate investment remains under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 10.7%, reflecting a significant drop in sales area and sales volume [28][29] Policy Impact - The central bank has maintained a moderately loose monetary policy, implementing measures such as a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate reductions to support economic recovery [7][8] - Active fiscal policies are also in place, with plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds, including 300 billion yuan to support the "old-for-new" consumption initiative [8][7]