Copper - Copper prices experienced fluctuations and weakened overnight, with LME copper inventory increasing by 1,125 tons to 165,675 tons and COMEX copper warehouse receipts rising by 3,208 tons to 401,929 tons [2][8] - The U.S. ADP report indicated an average of 4,750 new jobs added per week in the private sector, ending a four-week job loss streak, signaling positive labor market trends [2][8] - The market is cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, with a consensus forming around a potential rate cut in December, while future rate paths and liquidity measures are under scrutiny [2][8] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 0.91% to $14,750 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 1.18% to 116,360 yuan per ton, with LME inventory decreasing by 816 tons to 252,528 tons [3][9] - The Indonesian government is intensifying regulatory measures in the mining sector, imposing heavy fines on companies operating illegally beyond forest permits [3][9] - Nickel prices in the nickel-iron and stainless steel supply chain are showing upward pressure, but price ceilings remain limited due to marginal inventory reductions [3][9] Aluminum & Alumina - Alumina prices weakened, with AO2601 settling at 2,503 yuan per ton, down 2.15%, while SHFE aluminum also saw a decline to 21,835 yuan per ton, down 0.7% [4][11] - The aluminum market is experiencing seasonal pressures with inventory levels rising, and the supply of alumina remains high, contributing to downward price pressures [4][11] - The aluminum price is following a copper-aluminum ratio correction logic, with increasing concerns about downstream high-price stocking sentiment [4][11] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices weakened, with the main contract settling at 8,340 yuan per ton, down 3.47%, while polysilicon prices showed strength, rising by 3.45% to 55,610 yuan per ton [5][11] - The photovoltaic supply chain is facing high inventory levels and production cuts, with price reduction sentiments not spreading upward [5][11] - The trading exchange has implemented measures to alleviate warehouse pressure, with slow growth in near-month warehouse receipts providing some support [5][11] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 1.23% to 92,800 yuan per ton, with average prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate remaining at 92,750 yuan per ton [6][12] - Weekly lithium production increased by 74 tons to 21,939 tons, with expectations for a 3% increase in December production [6][12] - Inventory levels are decreasing, but demand is showing signs of weakening, leading to a slight increase in total inventory days to 27 days [6][12]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting is scheduled for December 9-10, with results expected soon [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is reported at 87.6% according to the latest CME "FedWatch" [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was 89.4% on December 9, indicating a slight decrease in expectations [3] - On December 8, the probability was 86.2%, showing fluctuations in market sentiment leading up to the meeting [4] - The probability was 87% on December 5, reflecting consistent expectations for a rate cut [5] - On December 3, the probability was 89.2%, suggesting strong market anticipation for a rate cut [6] - There are notable divisions among the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members regarding the necessity of a rate cut, with 10 out of 19 members expressing skepticism [6] - President Trump is conducting final interviews for candidates to replace the Fed chair, with Kevin Hassett being a leading candidate [6][9] - Hassett believes the Fed has ample room to significantly lower the benchmark interest rate [7][8] Group 2: Silicon Industry Analysis - Industrial silicon prices are declining, with the main SI2601 contract closing at 8340 yuan/ton, down 3.47% [10] - In contrast, polysilicon prices are rising, with the main PS2601 contract closing at 55610 yuan/ton, up 3.45% [10] - The decline in industrial silicon prices is attributed to weakened supply and demand, with expectations of reduced demand from organic silicon producers [10] - Industrial silicon production is experiencing seasonal declines, with increased shutdowns in the southwest region due to environmental issues [10] - The recent drop in coal prices is expected to lower production costs for industrial silicon, further pressuring prices [11] - Polysilicon price increases are driven by news of a new "polysilicon capacity integration acquisition platform," which has garnered significant industry attention [12] - The establishment of this platform is seen as a potential positive development for market confidence in polysilicon prices [12] - Despite the positive news for polysilicon, overall demand in the photovoltaic industry remains weak, with many downstream companies operating at a loss [13] - Both industrial silicon and polysilicon are currently in a weak fundamental state, with inventory levels rising [13] - Future price movements for polysilicon may be limited due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances, while industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate around cost lines [14]

供应端：工业硅现货价格小幅下跌。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9400（-150）元/吨；421#硅在9600-9800 （-100）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8900（-150）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8900（-150）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、 西北、天津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价回落，97硅价格回落。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13500-13700（0）元/吨。SMM报道，有机硅DMC市场持稳，当前DMC报 价在13500-14000元/吨，有机硅各主要产品上调后，下游情绪偏观望，但在预售单持续兑现下，企业库存压力不大， 预计短期内市场平稳运行运行。 策略 现货价格小幅下跌，西南开工大幅降低，新疆地区出现一定环保扰动，工业硅回落主要受焦煤等商品下跌影响。 目前工业硅盘面主要受整体商品情绪以及政策端消息震荡运行。需关注近期环保影响以及后续是否有相关产能退 出政策，目前工业硅估值偏低，若有政策推动，盘面或有上涨空间。 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-12-08，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡运行，主力合约2601开于8745元/吨，最后收于8675元/吨，较前一日结算变 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【新能源周报】 12月排产更新，商品价格承压 国贸期货贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-12-8 分析师：白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号： F03123927 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 02 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS ） 碳酸锂（LC ） 01 PART ONE 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS） 工业硅 ：供给重心向西北转移 ，硅价上方压力较大 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 影响因素 驱动 主要逻辑 供给端 偏多 （1）全国周产8.13 万吨，环比-8.69%；全国开炉238台，环比-19台。 （2）主产区：新疆地区周产4.92 万吨，环比-2.19%，开炉数环比一致。云南地区周产0.55 万吨，环比-19.77%，开炉数环比-11台。四川地区 周产0.25 万吨，环比-60.48%，开炉数环比-7台。 （3）11月产量40.1 ...

2025 年 12 月 08 日 工业硅：关注新疆环保事件发酵 多晶硅：反内卷核心标的，低买思路为主 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2601收盘价（元/吨） | 8,805 | -105 | -325 | -215 | | | | Si2601成交量（手） | 170,669 | 18,497 | -27,222 | -105,527 | | | | Si2601持仓量（手） | 196,943 | 3,924 | -14,856 | -35,906 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2601收盘价（元/吨） | 55,510 | -1,405 | -915 | - | | | | PS2601成交量（手） | 159,380 | -16,196 | -21,883 | - | | | | PS2601持仓量（手） | 97,99 ...

工业硅日报 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 08 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Last week, industrial silicon prices fluctuated downward. The main reasons were that the polysilicon production in November fell short of expectations, and the slowdown in photovoltaic installation at the end of the year led to a significant decline in silicon wafer production scheduling, dragging down the demand for upstream silicon materials. The overall sentiment in the industrial products market cooled. From the supply side, the operating rate in Xinjiang remained around 85%, the output in the southwest region decreased significantly during the dry season, and there was little expectation of increased production in Gansu and Inner Mongolia, resulting in a slight contraction in supply. From the demand side, the market - supporting effect of leading polysilicon enterprises was poor, the futures price dropped significantly last week, and the production scheduling in December was expected to continue to decline. The price of silicon wafers fell continuously last week, and battery enterprises effectively managed their safety inventory, forcing silicon enterprises to cut prices and dump products. The production scheduling of silicon wafers in December decreased by more than 15%. The decline of battery cells slowed down last week, and leading integrated enterprises increased production cuts in December, with market decisions being divided and the demand side tightening faster. The finished - product inventory of component enterprises was relatively stable, but the actual demand for concentrated installation decreased at the end of the year, and the number of provincial and municipal photovoltaic projects won by domestic enterprises decreased. The total procurement capacity won last week was 1232.8MW, a week - on - week decrease of 345.7MW. The social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 558,000 tons last week, and the spot market of industrial silicon shifted downward due to the decline in futures prices [2][5][9]. - Overall, the official manufacturing PMI in November was still in the contraction range, the polysilicon production fell short of expectations, and the production scheduling of the photovoltaic mid - and downstream in December decreased significantly. The overall sentiment in the industrial products market cooled. Technically, the main contract fell below the 9000 level and continued to decline weakly. It is expected that the futures price of industrial silicon will enter a weak and volatile state [2][9]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The price of the industrial silicon main contract on December 5 was 8805 yuan/ton, a decrease of 325 yuan/ton or 3.56% from November 28. The price of oxygen - passing 553 spot was 9450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton or 1.05%. The price of non - oxygen - passing 553 spot remained unchanged at 9350 yuan/ton. The price of 421 spot remained unchanged at 9800 yuan/ton. The price of 3303 spot remained unchanged at 10450 yuan/ton. The price of organic silicon DMC spot was 13600 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton or 3.03%. The price of polysilicon dense material spot remained unchanged at 52 yuan/ton. The social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 558,000 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons or 1.45% [3]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: China's official manufacturing PMI in November rose to 49.2, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The production index was 50, indicating that manufacturing production was generally stable. The new order index was 49.2, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%, indicating that the market demand in the manufacturing industry was generally stable. The raw material inventory index was 47.3, remaining unchanged month - on - month, indicating a continuous decrease in the inventory of major raw materials. The employment index was 48.4, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%, indicating a slight improvement in the employment sentiment of manufacturing enterprises. The supplier delivery index was 50.1, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%, indicating a slight acceleration in the supplier delivery time [6]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: As of December 28, the weekly output of industrial silicon decreased to 81,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.7% and a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. The number of open furnaces in the three major industrial silicon production areas dropped significantly to 238, and the overall furnace - opening rate dropped to 29.9%. Among them, the number of open furnaces in Xinjiang decreased to 140, remaining unchanged week - on - week; in Yunnan, it decreased by 5 to 14; in Sichuan and Chongqing, it decreased by 13 to 8; in Inner Mongolia, it decreased by 1 to 32. The demand side showed that the market - supporting effect of leading polysilicon enterprises was poor, the futures price dropped significantly last week, and the production scheduling in December was expected to continue to decline. The price of silicon wafers fell continuously last week, and the production scheduling of silicon wafers in December decreased by more than 15%. The decline of battery cells slowed down last week, and leading integrated enterprises increased production cuts in December. The finished - product inventory of component enterprises was relatively stable, but the actual demand for concentrated installation decreased at the end of the year, and the number of provincial and municipal photovoltaic projects won by domestic enterprises decreased [5][7][9]. - **Inventory aspect**: As of December 5, the national social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 558,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8000 tons. The terminal consumption slowed down, and the registered warehouse receipt volume of the exchange continued to increase. As of December 5, the warehouse receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose to 7288 lots, totaling 36,400 tons. It is expected that the warehouse receipt inventory will continue to increase under the background of weakening marginal demand at the end of the year [8]. Industry News - On December 5, Daquan Energy held a performance briefing for the third quarter. The company's directors, board secretary Sun Yicheng, and CFO and deputy general manager Shi Wei attended the meeting and responded to core issues such as the trend of silicon material prices, the impact of industry policies, the company's operating performance, and technological layout. The company's N - type dense material in polysilicon products accounted for more than 70%, and there was no specific construction plan for granular silicon technology at present [10]. - The EU is considering setting a "Made in Europe" target of up to 70% for specific goods including automobiles. The policy may force EU enterprises to purchase more expensive European components, bringing them an additional cost of more than 10 billion euros per year. The proposal is expected to be submitted on December 10. Germany and other countries have indicated that they will support the "Buy European" rule, which may affect the automotive industry and clean - technology fields such as solar panels [11]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including industrial silicon production, export volume, social inventory, Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt inventory, main production area weekly output, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and various spot prices [13][14][16][17][18].

| 观点与策略 | | --- | 2025年12月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 镍：结构性过剩转变，博弈矛盾并未改变 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需延续双弱运行，成本支撑逻辑增强 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：偏弱震荡，关注尼日利亚停矿事件发酵 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注新疆环保事件发酵 | 6 | | 多晶硅：反内卷核心标的，低买思路为主 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 117,790 | 30 | 710 | 3,740 | -2,240 | -3,060 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,500 | 75 | 135 | 210 | -35 | -355 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 107,217 | 3,895 | 21, ...

[★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 根据铁合金在线，本周新疆增开 5 台、云南减少 2 台、四川下 降 14 台、内蒙增开 1 台。周末石河子启动重污染天气 II 级 （橙色）应急响应，关注后续影响。新疆大厂复产，有机硅和 出口需求弱于预期，导致更新平衡表后，12 月至明年一季度工 业硅也将单月累库 1-2 万吨，基本面情况不乐观。硅厂在盘面 高位时进行套保，当前库存压力不大，现货不愿低价出售。下 游在 8800 元/吨一线点价采购，周五期现出货情况尚好。 周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 新疆大厂增产，多晶硅新增交割品牌 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 当前现货龙头一线厂家 N 型致密复投料价格维持 51-53 元/千 克以上，颗粒料维持 50-51 元/千克，东方希望 N 型致密 49-51 元/千克。12 月多晶硅排产预计 11.2 万吨，库存继续累积。终 端需求下行，中游环节降价减产，行业库存高企，多晶硅现货 价格想要逆势上涨几无可能，但在行业自律和平台收储的叙事 下，头部多晶硅企业仍在强势挺价撑市。上下游的割裂感日益 加剧，但考虑到平台公司仍有序推进，我们预期多晶硅现货价 格或仍以持平为主。12 月 5 日广 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The industrial silicon market showed a weakening trend this week. In the short - term, there is no driving force, presenting a weakening and oscillating pattern, but winter environmental protection speculation should be vigilant. In the medium - to - long - term, the downside space of industrial silicon prices is limited, and it is cost - effective to arrange long - term contracts during the peak season at low prices [1][2]. - The core driving factors for the future price trend of industrial silicon futures include the progress of eliminating backward production capacity under the "anti - involution" background of the industry, the reduction of production on the supply side due to environmental protection constraints or rising costs, and the expected reduction of production on the demand side due to weak terminal shipments [1]. - The price of industrial silicon is closely related to the price fluctuations of related varieties such as polysilicon and coking coal [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core driving logic for the future price trend of industrial silicon futures focuses on the progress of eliminating backward production capacity, supply - side production cuts, and demand - side production reduction expectations [1]. - The optimization of production capacity in the industrial silicon industry faces resistance because it is mainly composed of private enterprises with a large number of scattered enterprises, leading to low confidence in effective production capacity clearance through industry self - discipline [1]. - Power cost accounts for 30% of the production cost of industrial silicon, and coal price fluctuations affect power cost and then the price of industrial silicon. In December, there are expectations of a decline in the operating rate of industrial silicon production enterprises on the supply side, and the polysilicon industry is likely to cut production, while downstream organic silicon monomer plants have maintenance plans, with only the aluminum alloy industry maintaining a stable operating rate [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Wide - range oscillation and bottom - building [4]. - Price range: Oscillation range is 8400 - 9500; low - level range is 7000 - 8400 [5]. - Basis strategy: Wait and see [5]. 1.3 Industrial Operation Recommendations - For sales management, enterprises with plans to produce industrial silicon in the future can sell corresponding futures contracts or use a combination option strategy (buy put options + sell call options) with a recommended hedging ratio of 20% to prevent price drops and profit reduction [5]. - For procurement management, enterprises with plans to produce polysilicon/organic silicon/aluminum alloy can buy corresponding futures contracts or use combination option strategies according to different situations, with recommended hedging ratios ranging from 10% to 30% to prevent cost increases [5]. - For inventory management, enterprises with high industrial silicon inventories can short the main futures contract or use a combination option strategy (sell call options + buy put options) with recommended hedging ratios of 20% and 10% respectively to prevent inventory depreciation [5]. Chapter 2: Important Information and Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information Review - On December 2nd, Hesheng Silicon Industry announced the partial share pledge of its controlling shareholder [6]. 2.2 Next Week's Concerns - No relevant content provided Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - This week, the Friday closing price of the industrial silicon futures weighted index contract was 8823 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.29%; the trading volume was 290,100 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 9.38%; the open interest was 441,100 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 59,600 lots. The month - spread of SI2601 - SI2605 was in a contango structure, with a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the number of warehouse receipts was 7288 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 692 lots [12]. - The industrial silicon weighted futures price gradually fell below the 60 - day moving average this week. Combining the MACD indicator signals and open interest data changes, the disk showed the characteristic of "short - position increasing and price falling" [12]. - The current industrial silicon futures price has gradually moved from the middle track to the lower track of the Bollinger Band, and the Bollinger Bandwidth has shown a certain expansion. The first support level of 8700 yuan/ton and the second support level of 8400 yuan/ton should be focused on [12]. 3.2 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of industrial silicon has been slowly weakening in the past week, indicating that the actual price fluctuation range has been gradually narrowing [14]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options of industrial silicon has been oscillating and weakening in the past week [14]. - The PCR of industrial silicon option open interest has been decreasing recently, indicating that the proportion of put option open interest relative to call option open interest has decreased, and the market's bullish sentiment is gradually rising [14]. 3.3 Silicon Industry Chain Spot Data - The prices of different grades and regions of industrial silicon and its downstream products such as trichlorosilane, polysilicon N - type price index, organic silicon DMC, and aluminum alloy ADC12 are provided, along with their daily and weekly changes [24]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit 4.1 Up - and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industry Chain - Since reaching the profit low in May, the average profit of the industrial silicon industry has been in a continuous repair channel. The profit in the southwest region has declined rapidly due to the dry season [25]. - The polysilicon industry, the core downstream demand area of industrial silicon, has stable profits, providing important support for the demand of industrial silicon. The profit of the aluminum alloy industry is showing a weakening trend, and the profit level of the organic silicon industry is declining [25]. Chapter 5: Fundamentals 5.1 Upstream - Industrial Silicon - The weekly production and operating rate data of industrial silicon from different sources (Baichuan, Steel Union, SMM) are provided, showing different trends of production and operating rate changes [32]. - The inventory data of industrial silicon in different regions and forms are presented, including national, regional, and port inventories [47][48][49]. 5.2 Downstream - Polysilicon - The weekly production data of domestic polysilicon from different sources (SMM, Baichuan) are provided, with different trends of production changes. The weekly inventory data of domestic polysilicon in different parts (total inventory, production enterprise inventory, silicon wafer enterprise inventory, etc.) are also given [51][52][54]. 5.3 Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - The weekly operating rate and inventory data of primary and secondary aluminum alloys are provided, showing different trends of operating rate and inventory changes [58][59]. 5.4 Downstream - Organic Silicon - The weekly production data of organic silicon DMC are provided, showing a slight decrease in weekly production but an increase in monthly production [63]. 5.5 Terminal - The data of terminal products such as Chinese commercial housing sales area, automobile monthly production, and photovoltaic monthly new installed capacity are presented [66].