Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: Macro - expectations determine the direction, while fundamentals limit the elasticity [2][4] - **Stainless Steel**: Macro - sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [2][4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It experiences wide - range fluctuations, and the disturbances at the mine end have not materialized [2][9] - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment has weakened [2][12] - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [2][12] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,720 yuan, down 80 yuan from the previous day; the stainless - steel main contract was 12,920 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 153,323 lots, an increase of 33,388 lots from the previous day, and the stainless - steel main contract was 153,403 lots, an increase of 14,642 lots from the previous day [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Events include Canada's Ontario province potentially halting nickel exports to the US, the trial production of an Indonesian nickel - iron project, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, changes in Indonesia's mining quota policy, and production suspensions in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelting parks [4][5][6] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 70,600 yuan, down 240 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 792,909 lots, an increase of 48,749 lots from the previous day; the open interest was 272,753 lots, a decrease of 27,867 lots from the previous day [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased. Greenbushes and Pilbara released their production and sales data and 2026 fiscal - year plans [9][10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is - 1 [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 9,285 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 605,161 lots; the open interest was 242,677 lots, a decrease of 34,057 lots from the previous day. The closing price of the PS2509 contract was 54,705 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,900 yuan from the previous day [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: The US will partially cancel trade tariffs on certain small - scale solar equipment imported from China [13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is - 1 [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of industrial silicon has a potential increasing trend due to the resumption of production in some southwestern regions, while the total demand from the three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) continues to show a slowdown trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a high - short strategy in the medium - to - long - term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9285 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the main contract position is 242,677 lots, down 34,057 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 74,088 lots, up 5,853 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50,113 lots; the industrial silicon price spread from August to September is - 45 yuan, up 15 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 10,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 10,250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the DMC spot price is 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Si main contract basis is 715 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly industrial silicon output is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly industrial silicon social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly industrial silicon import volume is 2211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly industrial silicon export volume is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,200 yuan/ton; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 65.11%, down 6.27 percentage points; the monthly aluminum alloy output is 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] Industry News - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued a clarification announcement stating that some self - media reports about anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, especially in the polysilicon sector, are seriously inconsistent with the actual situation. The clarification may be related to the rumored acquisition and storage event in the polysilicon industry. Trump announced that a 50% tariff will be imposed on imported copper starting from August 1 [2] Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, in the northwest Ili region, large - scale production enterprises maintain the existing production rhythm; in the southwest region, some areas are resuming production, and overall output has a potential increasing trend. On the demand side, the demand from the three major downstream industries for industrial silicon is slowing down [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical game deadline between Russia and Ukraine has been advanced, and the macro - situation has positive expectations. The short - term market has upward support, and attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - The short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the decline in safe - haven demand, and focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - For various commodities, different trends and trading strategies are presented based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and inventory changes. For example, some commodities are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to fluctuate [4][5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight crude oil futures rose sharply. The geopolitical game deadline has been advanced, and the short - term market has upward support. Attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Macro and geopolitical game news boost oil prices, but the cracking spread is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak, and the cracking spread is likely to be volatile and weak [22]. - **Asphalt**: The domestic production volume in August decreased compared with July. Demand recovery was delayed, and the inventory destocking rhythm slowed down. The price follows the direction of crude oil, but the upward space is limited [23]. - **Urea**: The futures main contract is running at a low level. Domestic downstream demand is weak, exports are advancing, and short - term prices are likely to run within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and the port is unexpectedly destocked. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate within a range [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Night - time oil prices rose sharply, which is expected to boost the cost of pure benzene. Supply and demand decreased in the week, and the port slightly accumulated inventory. Seasonal supply - demand improvement is expected in the third quarter, and it is recommended to conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC showed strength at night. Supply decreased, domestic demand was weak, and foreign demand was expected to improve. Caustic soda showed a volatile trend, with long - term supply pressure and high - level pressure on prices [27]. - **PX & PTA**: Night - time prices rebounded slightly. The fundamentals of PX had limited driving force, and PTA continued to accumulate inventory. The medium - term processing margin has a repair drive, but it needs to wait for downstream demand to recover [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is shifting, short - term oil prices are strong, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory fluctuates at a low level. Attention should be paid to external variables [29]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Prices rebounded following raw materials. Short - fiber is considered for long - allocation in the medium - term, while bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [30]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals fluctuated. Safe - haven demand declined, and short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated and closed up. The market focuses on the implementation of US tariff agreements and Fed meetings. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average, and short positions are held against integer levels [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum had limited fluctuations. Demand declined in the off - season, inventory increased, and it is mainly in short - term shock adjustment with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has tight supply, and the price is under short - term pressure but has certain resilience in the medium - term. Consider long AD and short AL when the price difference expands [6]. - **Alumina**: The price has risen sharply, the industry profit has recovered, and the inventory is in a surplus state. Sell short when the price approaches the recent high of 3,500 yuan [7]. - **Zinc**: The black price rebounded, and the zinc price adjustment rhythm was not smooth. Supply increased and demand was weak, and the inventory continued to rise. In the medium - term, the idea of short - allocation on rebounds is maintained, and wait for clear short signals [8]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak, the rebound rhythm is slow, and there is support at 16,800 yuan/ton. You can try long positions lightly and hold them against this price [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated. The speculation of the "anti - involution" theme cooled down, and nickel may return to fundamentals. Wait patiently for short opportunities [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fluctuated. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average and 265,000 yuan. In the long - term, high - level supply expectations will suppress prices. Hold short positions above 270,000 yuan [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It fluctuated, and the trading was active. The market rumors of mine shutdowns were refuted. The inventory increased, and the mid - stream output decreased slightly. Try long positions lightly in the short - term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures rose sharply. The terminal is waiting and watching, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. After the previous sharp rise, the market enters a wide - range shock. Choose low - long opportunities and control positions [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures rose slightly. The fundamentals are weak, but the price is at a historical low. Be cautious about short - selling unilaterally and control risks [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures rose. Supply increased globally but decreased in domestic arrivals. The inventory pressure is not large, and the demand is weak and stable. The price is expected to be volatile [16]. - **Coke**: The price rose significantly during the day. The fourth round of price increases was proposed, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downward space is relatively limited [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rose significantly during the day, and the far - month contract hit the daily limit. The inventory decreased in the production end, and the downward space is relatively limited [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price followed the rise. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation of manganese ore has improved, and there is an upward driving force in the short - term [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price followed the rise. The demand is acceptable, and the price may have an upward driving force in the short - term [20]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are ongoing, and the US soybean growing conditions are good. The price is treated as volatile for now [34]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US market shows oil - strong and meal - weak. Domestic soybean oil is strong, and the EU policy is positive for palm oil. Maintain the idea of long - allocation on dips [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed rose overnight. The rapeseed meal price stabilized slightly, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased slowly. Take a short - term neutral attitude towards rapeseed products [36]. - **Domestic Soybean**: After a sharp reduction in positions and a callback, the price stabilized. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions [37]. - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak and volatile at the bottom [38]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price continued to fall, and the futures are likely to have peaked. Suggest hedging on rallies [39]. - **Eggs**: The futures price fluctuated little. The spot price was stable in most areas. The 09 contract focuses on the seasonal rebound of the spot price, and long positions are more inclined to far - month contracts [40]. - **Cotton**: US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased, and Brazil's harvest progress was slow. Zheng cotton maintained a high - level shock. Temporarily wait and see [41]. - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure, and the uncertainty of China's sugar production in the 25/26 season has increased. The short - term sugar price is expected to be volatile [42]. - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and the market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Temporarily wait and see [43]. - **Timber**: The demand is good during the off - season, and the inventory pressure is small. The futures price is expected to continue to rise [44]. - **Pulp**: The price fell slightly. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the demand is weak, and the price may return to low - level volatility. Temporarily wait and see [45]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The market freight rate inflection point is becoming clear, and the price is expected to decline further. The extension of tariff exemptions may boost market sentiment [21]. - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose steadily in the afternoon, and the futures index rose. The risk preference of the global market is oscillating strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The global trade sentiment has improved, and the bond market may have increased volatility in the short - term. The probability of a steeper yield curve increases [47].

工业硅： 市场分析 2025-07-29，工业硅期货价格上涨，主力合约2509开于8915元/吨，最后收于9350元/吨，较前一日结算变化（215） 元/吨，变化（2.35）%。截止收盘，2509主力合约持仓276734手，2025-07-29仓单总数为50082手，较前一日变化 -31手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格回落。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9700-9900（-150）元/吨；421#硅在9900-10400 （-50）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格9100-9200（-200）元/吨，99硅价格在9000-9200（-200）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、 天津、西北、新疆、四川、上海地区部分硅价也持续下调。97硅价格持稳。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价12100-12800（0）元/吨。据百川报道，山东某企业DMC报12300元/吨，其 他企业封盘不报，有机硅市场供应出现收缩,叠加原料端金属硅价格上涨，生产厂家的挺价意愿显著增强。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-30 反内卷影响仍在，近期参与需做好风险管控 策略 多地行业协会发布反内卷倡议，工业硅盘面有所走强，短期供需格局相对较 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 29, polysilicon prices stopped falling and rebounded. The main 2509 contract closed at 50,805 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 3.76%. The N-type recycled polysilicon material price rose to 46,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also reached 46,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed to 4,245 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon showed a strong oscillation. The main 2509 contract closed at 9,350 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.35%. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 9,570 yuan/ton, down 277 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade dropped to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 255 yuan/ton. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology re - emphasized consolidating the comprehensive governance results against excessive competition, highlighting the governance of key industries such as photovoltaics to force out backward production capacity through standard improvement. Polysilicon was boosted by the news and regained momentum. Industrial silicon was driven up by polysilicon and showed a strong performance. Currently, policies still support the market, but after the pre - speculative demand was realized, market sentiment cooled down, and there is insufficient momentum to reach new highs. After the exchange adjusted margins and handling fees, heavy - position chasing and killing should be avoided. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse spread space and PS/SI ratio arbitrage, as well as the resumption of production in the southwest region and policy progress [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,085 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 130 yuan/ton to 8,995 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices of different grades and in different regions declined. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 150 yuan/ton to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 20 yuan to 255 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 31 to 50,082, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 3,415 tons to 248,550 tons. Other port and factory inventories remained stable [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 1,400 yuan/ton to 50,805 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract increased by 1,340 yuan/ton to 50,745 yuan/ton. All spot prices increased, with the N - type granular silicon material rising by 10,000 yuan/ton to 44,000 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price rose by 2,000 yuan/ton to 46,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed by 660 yuan to 4,245 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 50 to 3,070, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 0.7 tons to 9.06 tons. The factory and social inventories remained unchanged [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The DMC price in the East China market remained at 12,500 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: Data on silicon wafers and battery cells were not available. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades and regions, as well as the prices of silicon stone, refined coal, and electricity [5][7][11]. 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][14][16]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and changes in weekly inventory, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [19][22]. 3.2.4 Cost - profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC and polysilicon [25][27][31]. 4. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metals analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. He is often interviewed by multiple media [33]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [33]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [34].

1. Report Date - The report is dated July 30, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - The Energy and Chemical Research Team includes researchers such as Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), and Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] 3. Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - The main contract price of industrial silicon futures showed a strong and volatile trend. The closing price of Si2509 was 9,350 yuan/ton, with a gain of 2.35%. The trading volume was 654,844 lots, and the open interest was 276,734 lots, a net decrease of 2,334 lots [4] - The spot price of industrial silicon stabilized. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 9,550 yuan/ton, Sichuan 553 was 9,050 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 was 10,500 yuan/ton [4] Market Outlook - The fundamentals have not changed significantly recently. The resumption of production in the southwest offset the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang. The production in the fourth week of July increased to 75,200 tons. Photovoltaic demand increased slightly due to the resumption of production of polysilicon enterprises, but the safety accident in the silicone industry forced overall self - inspections, and the supply - demand relationship did not improve significantly [4] - Since the end of June, the first - stage rebound of industrial silicon's futures and spot prices was mainly affected by the news of production cuts by Xinjiang Hesheng, and the second stage was mainly driven by the "anti - involution" competition policy. Generally, the recent price fluctuations have little to do with the fundamentals. Currently, the spot price (553) range is still between 9,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and the increase in warehouse receipts also occurred at high prices. Overall, the price will mainly fluctuate widely [4] 4. Market News - On July 29, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,082 lots, a net decrease of 31 lots from the previous trading day [5] - The export volume of industrial silicon in June was 68,323 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 338,900 tons, with an average monthly export of 56,500 tons [5] - On July 23, the National Energy Administration released the national power industry statistics for January - June. As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%; the installed capacity of wind power was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.7%. From January to June, the cumulative average utilization hours of national power generation equipment were 1,504 hours, a decrease of 162 hours compared with the same period last year. In June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was only 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% and a month - on - month decrease of 85% [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry has experienced fluctuations in operating rates, currently recovering to 72%, but there is a severe oversupply in products related to new energy, such as industrial silicon [1][2] - Major companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng have healthy cash flows and profitability, outperforming overseas competitors, which may lead to an optimization of the domestic chemical industry landscape as foreign companies exit [1][3] - Fixed asset investment in the chemical industry has turned negative at -1.1%, indicating a potential end to natural attrition [1][4] Organic Silicon Industry Insights - The organic silicon industry is expected to see no new capacity additions from 2025 to 2026, suggesting a potential recovery from the bottom [1][4][9] - The organic silicon supply chain shows that polysilicon is the largest downstream segment, accounting for 55%, while organic silicon represents 27.6% [1][6] - The DMC (Dimethylcyclosiloxane) price is currently around 12,500 RMB/ton, with a profit margin of approximately 1,300 RMB/ton, which is at a decade low [2][13] - The total capacity of the organic silicon industry is projected to reach 3.44 million tons by 2025, having doubled since 2019 [1][8] Demand and Market Dynamics - The apparent demand growth for organic silicon is forecasted at 21% for 2024, with export growth at 34%, driven by the exit of overseas capacity and increased domestic demand from the photovoltaic and new energy sectors [1][10] - In the first half of 2025, the apparent demand growth reached 23.9%, although export growth saw a decline due to trade relations [11] - The organic silicon industry is currently in a favorable improvement trend, with a CR3 of 45.9% and CR5 of 61.9%, indicating a high concentration in the market [12] Industrial Silicon Sector - The industrial silicon sector is characterized as high energy consumption and low value, with a total capacity of 7.48 million tons, primarily concentrated in the Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan regions [2][16][17] - Current industrial silicon prices are around 9,600 RMB/ton, with mid-tier companies struggling to remain profitable [2][18] - The market outlook for industrial silicon is optimistic due to the potential for effective regulation and the implementation of anti-involution measures [19] Key Companies and Investment Opportunities - Key companies in the organic silicon sector include Hoshine Silicon Industry, which has a DMC capacity of 880,000 tons, holding a market share of 25.6% [2][14] - Other notable companies include Dongyue Group, Xian Chemical, and Luxi Chemical, which also have significant capacities and potential for profit growth [14][15][21] - The potential for profit improvement in the organic silicon sector is significant, driven by demand growth and the exit of less competitive players [7][12] Conclusion - The chemical industry, particularly the organic silicon segment, is poised for recovery with no new capacity additions expected in the near term, while the industrial silicon sector faces challenges but shows signs of potential improvement through regulatory measures and market dynamics [1][4][19]

Report 1: Industrial Silicon Weekly Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the supply of industrial silicon has increased after the production increase of leading large - scale factories and south - western silicon factories, there is still a supply - demand gap before the further significant production increase of the leading factory's Shanshan capacity. However, due to the significant callback of coking coal, glass, and soda ash on Friday night, the bullish sentiment may fade next week, and the industrial silicon futures are expected to have a callback [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the weekly output of DMC was 45,600 tons, a 4.60% week - on - week decrease; the weekly output of polysilicon was 24,400 tons, a 4.01% week - on - week increase; the operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloys remained flat. The weekly output of industrial silicon was 75,100 tons, a 5.24% week - on - week increase. The number of open furnaces increased in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Xinjiang. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% week - on - week decrease [3]. - **Trading Logic**: There is a supply - demand gap before the significant production increase of the leading factory. The bullish sentiment may fade, and the futures are expected to have a callback [3]. - **Strategies**: For unilateral trading, the bullish sentiment has faded, and short - term callbacks are possible, so previous long positions should be withdrawn. For options, hold the previous protective put options. For arbitrage, gradually take profit on the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Market Review**: This week, industrial silicon futures first rose and then fell. The futures main contract closed at 9,725 yuan/ton on Friday. The industrial silicon spot prices strengthened significantly, and most grades exceeded 10,000 yuan/ton [6]. - **Downstream Demand**: DMC output decreased, polysilicon output slightly increased, and the aluminum alloy operating rates remained stable. Some organic silicon enterprises had maintenance due to accidents, and the total maintenance capacity was 800,000 tons/year. The output of polysilicon is expected to increase in the future [9][13]. - **Industrial Silicon Output**: The weekly output of industrial silicon was 75,100 tons, a 5.24% week - on - week increase. The number of open furnaces increased in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Xinjiang. If the leading factory starts 10 new 33000KVA submerged arc furnaces as planned, the monthly output will increase by about 20,000 tons [19]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slightly, while the factory inventories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased [20]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Prices of Industrial Silicon - Related Products**: The spot prices of industrial silicon increased week - on - week [26]. - **Prices of Organic Silicon - Related Products**: The prices of DMC and terminal products strengthened this week [31]. - **Fundamental Data of Organic Silicon Intermediates**: The profit margin of DMC improved, and the operating rate decreased week - on - week [37]. - **Fundamental Data of Aluminum Alloys**: The operating rates of aluminum alloys remained stable [40]. - **Raw Material Prices of Industrial Silicon**: The electricity prices in the southwest decreased, and the price of refined coal in Xinjiang increased slightly [42]. Report 2: Polysilicon Weekly Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In August, polysilicon enterprises are expected to increase production, and there may be an oversupply of 15,000 - 20,000 tons. After the significant callback of coking coal, soda ash, and glass on Friday, the polysilicon futures are expected to open significantly lower on Monday. If the capacity integration plan is finalized in the middle of the week, the bullish expectation of polysilicon futures still exists [48]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Supply and Demand**: In August, the polysilicon output is expected to increase by about 30,000 tons, and the silicon wafer production schedule is basically the same as that in July, resulting in an oversupply [48]. - **Trading Strategies**: For unilateral trading, withdraw long positions temporarily and re - enter after a sufficient callback. Hold put options. Gradually take profit on the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [49]. Chapter 2: Fundamental Situation - **Polysilicon Prices**: The spot quotations of polysilicon manufacturers remained stable this week. The actual transaction prices increased after the strengthening of polysilicon futures [56][62]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Prices**: The prices of silicon wafers and batteries strengthened. The prices of silicon wafers increased significantly, and the battery prices are expected to continue to rise [63][67]. - **Component Prices**: The prices of photovoltaic components increased slightly this week, and there is an expectation of further increase [68]. - **Component Fundamental Data**: The domestic component inventory decreased rapidly. The price increase of components was partially accepted, but the mechanism electricity price was negative. The orders and production schedules in August weakened [75]. - **Battery Fundamental Data**: The inventory of professional battery manufacturers decreased to 9.9GW. The battery production is scheduled according to demand, and the import demand from Turkey increased. The domestic battery production schedule in August is expected to be 52GW, a decrease of 2GW compared with July [81]. - **Silicon Wafer Fundamental Data**: The silicon wafer inventory increased to 17.87GW this week, and the production remained flat. The production schedule in August is expected to be the same as that in July [85]. - **Polysilicon Fundamental Data**: The polysilicon production increased slightly this week, and the factory inventory increased to 275,400 tons. The production is expected to increase by about 30,000 tons in August [89].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. It points out that market sentiment is affected by factors such as trade agreements, tariff policies, and supply - demand relationships. Precious metals are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations; most metals are facing price pressures due to different factors, but there are also potential trading opportunities in different scenarios [3][5][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold fell for three consecutive days, closing down 0.92% at $3337.18 per ounce; London silver fell 2.39% to $38.17 per ounce. The US dollar index rose 0.219% to 97.66, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.384%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell 0.17% to 7.168 [3]. - **Important Information**: Trump announced a US - EU trade agreement with a 15% tariff on EU goods, $600 billion in EU investment in the US, and EU purchases of US military equipment and energy products. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 97.4%, and in September is 35.9% [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: As reciprocal tariffs are about to take effect and the US - EU trade agreement is reached, market risk - aversion sentiment eases. However, due to uncertainties in US tariffs, policies, and the Fed's independence, precious metals are expected to remain volatile at high levels [3][5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the progress of China - US tariff negotiations, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and US non - farm and PCE data [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,800 yuan per ton, down 0.67%. LME copper closed at $9796 per ton, down 0.59%. LME inventory increased by 3700 tons to 128,000 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 776 tons to 248,000 tons [7]. - **Important Information**: Trump announced a US - EU trade agreement, and the US will determine chip - related tariff policies in two weeks [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - factors and the approaching tariff deadline may impact the market. Supply is increasing, and it's the consumption off - season, so the upside of copper prices is limited [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily hold off on trading; consider buying deep - out - of - the - money call options at low prices [9]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of the alumina 2509 contract fell 217 yuan to 3243 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes [11]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are amending the Price Law. Some alumina enterprises are affected by natural disasters; inventory and production capacity data have changed [11][12][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The policy of eliminating backward production capacity may impact the market. Inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand surplus is expanding. Pay attention to the change in the spot supply - demand pattern [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term high - level fluctuations; hold off on trading for now [14][17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell 135 yuan per ton to 20,615 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [20]. - **Important Information**: Aluminum inventory increased, and the US - EU is discussing steel and aluminum tariffs. Some enterprises are operating at full capacity [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - factors and inventory changes affect the market. Pay attention to the opportunity of the spread between contracts [23][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure; consider a long - short spread strategy for 09 - 12 contracts [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 155 yuan to 19,995 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes [28]. - **Important Information**: Inventory increased, and production data changed [28][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is restricted by scrap aluminum shortage, and demand is affected by the off - season. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity between the spot and futures [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are under pressure with aluminum prices; consider arbitrage when the spread is above 300 - 400 yuan [32]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc market fell 0.4% to $2829 per ton; the Shanghai zinc 2509 contract fell 0.57% to 22,715 yuan per ton. Spot trading was average [34]. - **Important Information**: Zinc ore inventory at ports decreased, and the processing fee is expected to rise [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc ore is sufficient, and the supply of refined zinc is expected to increase. It's the consumption off - season, and the downstream demand is weak [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions; buy put options [37]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead market fell 0.12% to $2020.5 per ton; the Shanghai lead 2509 contract fell 0.38% to 16,845 yuan per ton. Spot trading was average [39]. - **Important Information**: The cost of recycled lead is high, and the raw material supply is a problem [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The cost of recycled lead provides support for lead prices. The production of lead smelters is affected, and the terminal consumption of lead - acid batteries has improved slightly [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily hold off on trading; consider a small - position long at low prices; sell put options [42]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel fell to $15,265 per ton, and the Shanghai nickel main contract fell to 121,430 yuan per ton. Spot premiums changed [44]. - **Important Information**: Some nickel - related projects in Indonesia have made strategic adjustments [45]. - **Logic Analysis**: Nickel prices are affected by the market sentiment. There is a risk of potential demand decline, and the supply - demand pattern in August may be similar to that in July [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading follows the macro - environment; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [46]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell to 129,785 yuan per ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [48][50]. - **Important Information**: Some steel mills are under maintenance, and tax policies have been adjusted [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: External demand is restricted, and speculative demand is strong. The cost is affected by raw materials, and the market is trading based on macro - logic [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading returns to the oscillation range; hold off on trading for now [53]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures rose first and then fell, and the spot prices strengthened [55]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are amending the Price Law [56]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand have changed, and the short - term bullish sentiment may fade [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Withdraw from long positions; hold protective put options; participate in arbitrage strategies [57]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures fluctuated and strengthened, then fell. Spot prices are given [59]. - **Important Information**: The photovoltaic industry's development in the first half of 2025 is reviewed, and the national photovoltaic installation scale prediction is adjusted [61]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and there may be an oversupply in August. The futures may open lower, and pay attention to the capacity - integration plan [61]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider a long - position strategy at low prices if the price drops significantly; pay attention to the capacity - integration plan [61]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose to 90,520 yuan per ton, and spot prices increased [63]. - **Important Information**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange is promoting the research and listing of some futures products and has adjusted the trading limit [63][66]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is trading based on the expectation of mine closures. The price may fluctuate greatly, and pay attention to regulatory policies [65][66]. - **Trading Strategy**: Withdraw from long positions for now; consider long - positions after a sufficient correction; hold put options; participate in far - month contract reverse arbitrage [65][66]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2509 contract fell to 268,130 yuan per ton. Spot prices and processing fees are given [68]. - **Important Information**: Trump announced a US - EU trade agreement, and the global economic growth forecast is lowered [68][70]. - **Logic Analysis**: Tin prices fell after rising. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is affected by the off - season. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery signals [70]. - **Trading Strategy**: Tin prices fluctuate with the market sentiment; hold off on trading for now [70].

Report Information - Date: July 28, 2025 [1][4][9][12] - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy [1] Core Views - Nickel: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, while fundamentals limit the elasticity [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Commodity prices fell during the night session on Friday. Pay attention to the transmission of pessimistic sentiment [2][9] - Industrial Silicon: Sentiment is declining. Pay attention to the risk of a sharp decline [2][12] - Polysilicon: Sentiment is declining [2][12] Industry - Specific Summaries Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 124,360 yuan, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,030 yuan. There were also detailed data on trading volume, spot prices, and various spreads [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved production plan for 2025 is higher than that of 2024; some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia stopped production [4][5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 80,520 yuan, with detailed data on trading volume, open interest, and various spreads and prices in the lithium - salt industrial chain [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange limited the daily opening volume of the LC2509 contract [10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is - 1 [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 9,725 yuan, and that of the PS2509 contract was 51,025 yuan. There were also data on trading volume, open interest, spreads, and prices in the industrial chain, as well as inventory and cost data [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: In the first half of the year, Zhejiang purchased 126 million green certificates, equivalent to 12.6 billion kWh of electricity [14] - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon trend intensities are - 1 [14]