Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: The contradictions in the smelting end are not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks at the mine end [2][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between short - and long - term logics, and steel prices may fluctuate [2][4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the market is under pressure [2][11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industry inventory is accumulating, and the strategy is to short at high prices [2][15]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to market information changes [2][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,980 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,950 yuan. There were also data on trading volume, spot prices, and spreads [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Many events occurred in Indonesia, including the trial production of the CNI nickel - iron project, environmental violations in the IMIP, plans to shorten mining quota periods, production suspensions in some nickel - iron smelting industrial parks, and the takeover of a nickel - mine area by the forestry working group [4][5][7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: Data on futures contracts (such as 2511 and 2601 contracts), spot prices, basis, and raw - material prices are provided [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased, and Zijin Mining's lithium - salt project was put into production [13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [14]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: Information on futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, basis, prices, profits, inventories, and raw - material costs of industrial silicon and polysilicon is presented [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The three ministries and commissions issued the "National Industrial Resources Comprehensive Utilization Advanced and Applicable Process Technology Equipment Catalog (2025 Edition)" [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1 (slightly bearish), and that of polysilicon is 0 (neutral) [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [5] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption rhythm of large factories in Xinjiang still affects the fundamental changes of industrial silicon. The discussion on the energy consumption issue of industrial silicon in the Baotou meeting on Friday has no clear conclusion, and it is expected to be difficult to implement in a short time. The short - term price of industrial silicon may run between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely between 50,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - Industrial silicon: The Si2511 contract closed at 8,745 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from last week. The spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,200 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 silicon increased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,600 yuan/ton. - Polysilicon: The PS2511 contract closed at 53,610 yuan/ton, down 3,125 yuan/ton from last week [10][11]. 3.2 Energy Consumption Implementation Takes Time, and Silicon Wafer Prices Rise Again to Transfer Pressure Industrial Silicon - This week, 7 new furnaces were opened in Xinjiang, and the situation in other regions remained unchanged. Southern production remained stable and may enter the dry season at the end of October with some silicon factories reducing production. The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.2 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.32 million tons. If the operation of large factories in Xinjiang remains unchanged, industrial silicon may accumulate about 30,000 tons of inventory from September to October and may reduce inventory by about 100,000 tons during the dry season from November to December. However, if large factories in Xinjiang resume full production, it may be difficult to reduce inventory during the dry season [2][12]. Organic Silicon - The price of organic silicon remained stable this week. Some devices were shut down for maintenance, and the weekly production was 48,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.62%. The inventory was 47,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.27%. It is expected that the price of organic silicon will fluctuate at a low level [12]. Polysilicon - The futures price of polysilicon fluctuated and declined this week. The quoted price of dense material from first - tier manufacturers was 55 yuan/kg, and that from second - and third - tier manufacturers was 52 yuan/kg. The new order price of granular material increased to 50 yuan/kg. The production limit in September has not been fully implemented, and the planned production is still about 128,000 tons. As of September 11, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 219,000 tons, mainly concentrated in two first - tier enterprises. The inventory of downstream silicon wafer factories reached 2 - 2.5 months. Affected by sales quotas, the supply - demand situation of polysilicon may be tighter. Considering the high production pressure of downstream sectors, the price of silicon material may remain flat or rise slightly. The new energy consumption standard is still in the drafting stage and will take time to implement [3][14]. Silicon Wafer - This week, the price of silicon wafers stabilized at a new level. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers were 1.30/1.40/1.65 yuan/piece. The production plan in September was 57.5GW, a month - on - month increase of 1.5GW. As of September 11, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 16.55GW, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3GW. The price of silicon wafers may rise further [15]. Battery Cell - The price of battery cells rose this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12 battery cells rose to 0.31/0.3 yuan/watt, while that of G12R remained at 0.285 yuan/watt. Overseas demand drove up the price of M10 battery cells, and G12 benefited from the peak season of domestic traditional centralized demand. The production plan in September was 60GW, a month - on - month increase of 1.8GW. It is expected that the price of battery cells will remain stable in the short term [16]. Component - The price of components remained stable this week. The production plan in September was 50GW, a month - on - month increase of 1GW. Some component enterprises have plans to reduce production due to cost pressure. It is expected that the price of components will fluctuate in the short term [17][18]. 3.3 Investment Advice - Industrial silicon: The short - term price of industrial silicon may run between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to interval operation opportunities [4][19]. - Polysilicon: In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling out - of - the - money call options after the rebound of the 11 - contract, and the arbitrage can pay attention to the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse arbitrage opportunity [4][19]. 3.4 Hot News Sorting - India reduced the goods and services tax (GST) on renewable energy components from 12% to 5%, which is expected to reduce the capital cost of solar and wind energy projects by about 5% [20]. - On September 14, leading enterprises raised the price of silicon wafers [20]. - On September 12, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice to improve the price mechanism to promote the nearby consumption of new energy power generation [20]. 3.5 Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - A series of charts show the price, production, inventory, and profit data of industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. A - shares may enter a high - level shock pattern after a large increase, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental drive is needed to choose a direction. The bond market shows a differentiated trend with the long - end being weak and the short - end being strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation. Silver is in the $40 - 42 range for short - term trading [2]. - The shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as falling apparent demand and coking coal resumption. Iron ore prices are strong, while coking coal and coke prices are weak [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts heats up again. The prices of base metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are affected by different factors [2]. - The oil market is worried about marginal supply increments, dragging oil prices down. The chemical products market has different supply - demand situations and price trends [2]. - The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends for different varieties [2]. - Special commodities like soda ash, glass, and rubber have different market performances and trading suggestions [2]. - In the new energy sector, polysilicon has a rising price due to increasing production cut expectations, and lithium carbonate maintains a tight balance [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: After a large increase, A - shares may enter a high - level shock. Sell near - month put options at support levels to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is at a critical point. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and focus on changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, buy cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money options. For silver, conduct short - term band trading in the $40 - 42 range and sell out - of - the - money options at high volatility [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are suppressed. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy iron ore 2601 contracts at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and consider an iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Sell coking coal 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170, and the iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy is favorable [2]. - **Coke**: Sell coke 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650, and the iron ore - coke long - short strategy is favorable [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. The main contract reference range is 79500 - 81500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Alloys**: Aluminum prices are affected by macro - factors and cost support, with different reference ranges for different contracts [2]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of interest rate cuts improves, boosting zinc prices. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [2]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals remain strong, and the tin price is in a high - level shock. The operating range is 285000 - 265000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about marginal supply increments drag oil prices down. Adopt a short - side strategy and pay attention to support levels [2]. - **Urea**: High short - term supply pressure drags down the price. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX and PTA**: The supply - demand expectations in September are different, and the prices are in a shock range. For PTA, consider a TA1 - 5 rolling reverse spread strategy [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand situations and trading suggestions, such as short - fiber, bottle - grade polyester, ethylene glycol, etc. [2] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Different grains and oils are affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends and trading suggestions [2]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply prospects, and cotton has low old - crop inventories, with different trading suggestions [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: The livestock and poultry products market is affected by factors such as supply - demand contradictions and sales rhythms, with different price trends [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: The market lacks a main trading logic and is in a narrow - range shock. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: The market is affected by production lines and spot market sentiment. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment fades, and rubber prices are in a shock - down trend. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Due to increasing production cut expectations, the price is rising. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market maintains a tight balance. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and the main contract reference range is 70000 - 72000 yuan [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report notes that most commodity futures rose, and small - and mid - cap stock index futures had good gains. In the overseas market, the US labor market shows a clear slowdown trend, and the weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the PPI is expected to see a slight increase in the central value, while the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level. Short - term domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the situation is generally favorable for gold. Long - term US fundamentals are fair, and a weak US dollar pattern continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4562, up 2.92% daily, 2.37% weekly, 1.24% monthly, 17.40% quarterly, and 16.35% year - to - date. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2990.2, up 1.78% daily, 1.68% weekly, 0.34% monthly, 11.20% quarterly, and 11.66% year - to - date. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7124.6, up 3.81% daily, 3.28% weekly, 1.83% monthly, 21.52% quarterly, and 25.11% year - to - date. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7387.8, up 3.31% daily, 2.24% weekly, 0.29% monthly, 20.15% quarterly, and 26.32% year - to - date [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.41, up 0.06% daily, 0.02% weekly, - 0.01% monthly, - 0.22% quarterly, and - 0.55% year - to - date. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.59, up 0.16% daily, 0.00% weekly, 0.07% monthly, - 0.63% quarterly, and - 0.89% year - to - date. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.58, up 0.08% daily, - 0.34% weekly, - 0.21% monthly, - 1.24% quarterly, and - 1.23% year - to - date. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.74, down 0.02% daily, - 1.38% weekly, - 1.55% monthly, - 4.61% quarterly, and - 3.44% year - to - date [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.8433, unchanged daily, up 0.11% weekly, unchanged monthly, up 1.11% quarterly, and down 9.81% year - to - date. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1695, with 0 pips change daily, - 24 pips weekly, 9 pips monthly, - 93 pips quarterly, and 1342 pips year - to - date. The US dollar - yen exchange rate was 147.46, with 0 pips change daily, up 0.03% weekly, up 0.28% monthly, up 2.40% quarterly, and down 6.20% year - to - date [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $63.75, up 1.56% daily, 2.87% weekly, - 0.41% monthly, - 1.88% quarterly, and - 11.30% year - to - date. ICE Brent crude oil was at $67.6, up 1.61% daily, 2.94% weekly, 0.21% monthly, 1.46% quarterly, and - 9.66% year - to - date. COMEX gold was at $3680.4, up 0.45% daily, 1.12% weekly, 4.67% monthly, 11.02% quarterly, and 39.45% year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Macro Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US released August non - farm data, with only 22,000 new jobs, lower than the previous value and expectations. The labor market's downward risk has increased, and wage growth has slowed. The number of initial and continued unemployment claims shows that the labor market slowdown is becoming more obvious [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In August, the PPI rebounded from - 3.6% to - 2.9% year - on - year, while the CPI dropped from 0% to - 0.4% year - on - year. The tail - wagging effect had a large impact, and food prices dragged down the CPI. The PPI's month - on - month rebound to 0 and the core CPI's rise to 0.9% indicate that domestic policies are starting to take effect. The PPI central value is expected to rise slightly, and the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level [6]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Short - term**: Domestic assets mainly present structural opportunities. The market sentiment has cooled down after important domestic events this week. In the overseas market, the weak US non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. - **Long - term**: The US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals. The weak US dollar pattern continues, and investors should be vigilant about volatility spikes and focus on non - US dollar assets [6]. 3.4 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures should adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences; stock index options should continue the hedging and defensive strategy; the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term for Treasury bond futures. All are expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence expands [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: For the container shipping to Europe route, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Steel and iron ore are expected to be volatile, with the impact of production restrictions on steel weakening and iron ore showing an unexpected decline in molten iron production and a slight increase in port inventories [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Despite the "anti - involution" impact, the prices of varieties in this sector are still supported during the peak season. However, most varieties are expected to be in a volatile state, such as coke starting the first - round price cut after the end of military parade - related production restrictions, and the supply of coking coal significantly decreasing [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Affected by the better - than - expected July China's import and export data, non - ferrous metals were initially boosted. However, most varieties are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as copper due to the rising risk of overseas recession [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and coking coal's decline has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as PP due to the increasing pressure of new production capacity [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural market is in a narrow - range volatile state, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, such as livestock products facing a supply - demand imbalance and rubber facing pressure from previous highs [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. After A - shares have accumulated significant gains, they may enter a high - level shock pattern, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental driver is needed to choose a direction. The long - end of Treasury bonds is weak while the short - end is strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as declining apparent demand and coking coal复产 [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has heated up again [2]. - There is a high supply pressure in the short - term for some energy and chemical products, and the market needs to pay attention to industrial demand rhythm [2]. - For agricultural products, there are different supply - demand situations, such as the abundant supply expectation for sugar and the low inventory of old - crop cotton [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index has a volume - increasing rise with the resonance of technology and finance. It is recommended to sell near - month put options at the support level to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: Uncertain about the direction, investors are advised to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money gold options. Silver should be traded in the range of 40 - 42 dollars and sell out - of - the money options at high volatility [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage as the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. Black - **Steel**: It is recommended to wait and see due to factors suppressing steel prices [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy the iron ore 2601 contract at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170 [2]. - **Coke**: Short the coke 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Adopt a short - side thinking, with support levels for WTI at [61, 62], Brent at [64, 65], and SC at [465, 475] [2]. - **Urea**: Wait and see as the short - term high - supply pressure drags down the market [2]. - **PX**: Treat the short - term oscillation in the range of 6600 - 6900 [2]. - **PTA**: Oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800 in the short - term and conduct TA1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: Follow the raw materials, with the processing fee oscillating in the range of 800 - 1100 [2]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand may both decline in September, and the processing fee fluctuates in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Look for EG1 - 5 reverse arbitrage opportunities [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: Wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: Hold short positions [2]. - **Pure Benzene**: Follow styrene and oil prices in the short - term [2]. - **Styrene**: Do low - buying operations on EB10 and expand the EB11 - BZ11 spread at a low level [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price fluctuates in the range of 11400 - 12500 [2]. - **LLDPE**: Oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **PP**: Stop profit on short positions at 6950 - 7000 [2]. - **Methanol**: Conduct range operations in the range of 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural - **Soybean Meal**: Operate in the range of 3050 - 3150 for the 01 contract [2]. - **Hog**: The market has limited supply - demand contradictions, and pay attention to the subsequent slaughter rhythm [2]. - **Corn**: Short at high prices [2]. - **Oil**: The short - term P main contract may test the 9000 support [2]. - **Sugar**: Pay attention to the support at around 5500 [2]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see on a single - side basis [2]. - **Egg**: Control the position of previous short positions as the market rebounds [2]. - **Apple**: The main contract runs around 8100 [2]. - **Jujube**: The main contract fluctuates around 11000 [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: Short on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: Wait and see and pay attention to the spot market sentiment during the peak season [2]. - **Rubber**: Wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price may fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to the silicon industry conference [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Wait and see as the production cut expectation rises and the price increases [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wait and see mainly, with the main contract running around 7 - 7.2 million [2].

Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint The fundamentals of natural rubber (NR) have not changed significantly. There is still cost support from the upstream, while downstream players are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output during the peak season in the main production areas and whether the La Nina phenomenon affects the supply. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider short - selling at high levels; if the supply is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to remain high [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 11, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - miscible rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton or 1.00% from the previous day. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged at 15,000 yuan/ton. The basis of some varieties showed significant changes, such as the basis of Panjingxing, which decreased by 8.06% [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 82 yuan/ton, down 0.51% from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, up 22.22% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India showed different trends, with Thailand's production increasing by 1.61%, Indonesia's by 12.09%, and India's decreasing by 2.17%. China's production decreased by 1.30%. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production in July decreased by 8.16%, while the tire export volume increased by 10.51%. The total import volume of natural rubber in July increased by 2.47% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.64%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 1.99%. The出库率 of warehouses increased due to downstream holiday stocking, and there is still an expectation of further inventory reduction [1]. Group 2: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint Currently, logs are in a volatile pattern. The spot market continues to weaken, and the enthusiasm of traders for imports has declined. The arrival volume remains low, and it is expected that the supply in September will continue to be at a low level. The inventory is low and has been decreasing for several consecutive weeks. The demand remains above 60,000 cubic meters but has not shown an obvious improvement trend. After entering the seasonal peak season, observe whether the shipment volume improves significantly. Currently, the valuation of the futures market is relatively low, and it is in a stage of volatile bottom - seeking. It is recommended to go long at low levels [3]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 11, the 2511 log contract closed at 804.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 2 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The spot prices of major benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The new round of FOB quotes has loosened to the range of 114 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [3]. - **Supply**: Last week, the total arrival volume at 12 ports was about 170,000 cubic meters, a record low for the year. This week, 11 ships of New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 12 ports in China, an increase of 6 ships from last week, and the total arrival volume is about 402,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 136% [3]. - **Demand**: The shipment volume last week decreased slightly but remained above 60,000 cubic meters. As of September 5, the average daily shipment volume of logs was 61,200 cubic meters [3]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint From the cost side, raw material prices are rising, and the electricity price in the southwest region will gradually increase during the dry season, which will lift the cost center of industrial silicon. Although the current production of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down. From the supply - demand side, both supply and demand increased in August, maintaining a tight balance. If some capacity is cleared in the long - term, the supply pressure will be reduced. It is recommended to go long at low levels, but also pay attention to the inventory and warehouse receipts while production increases. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 11, the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon was 9,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton or 1.06% from the previous day. The basis of some varieties showed significant changes, such as the basis of SI4210, which increased by 38.46% [4]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 5032.35% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The national industrial silicon production in the current period was 385,700 tons, an increase of 14.01% from the previous period. The production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan all increased. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 11.66%, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 1.60%. The industrial silicon export volume increased by 8.32% [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The social inventory increased by 0.37%, and the order - form inventory increased by 0.10% [4]. Group 4: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint In September, although there is some production reduction on the supply side, there are also factories resuming production to make up for the supply, so the overall supply reduction is not obvious. The silicon wafer production plan has increased slightly month - on - month, and the supply - demand situation in September may show a slight inventory accumulation pattern. Since late August, downstream players have carried out obvious inventory replenishment, and the price increase of polysilicon has been gradually accepted by the downstream, with a smooth spot price transmission mechanism. In the follow - up, the futures market pays less attention to the fundamentals and more to policy expectations. Short - term price fluctuations may be significant, so caution is required [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 11, the average price of N - type re - feedstock remained unchanged at 51,550 yuan/ton. The average price of N - type granular silicon also remained unchanged at 48,500 yuan/ton. The basis of N - type materials decreased by 61.80% [5]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main contract price was 53,710 yuan/ton, up 1.56% from the previous day. The spreads between different contracts showed different degrees of change [5]. - **Fundamentals (Weekly)**: The silicon wafer production was 13.88 GW, an increase of 0.73% from the previous week; the polysilicon production was 31,200 tons, an increase of 3.31% [5]. - **Fundamentals (Monthly)**: The polysilicon production was 131,700 tons, an increase of 23.31% from the previous month. The polysilicon import volume increased by 40.30%, and the export volume increased by 5.96% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.79%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 1.78% [5]. Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint - **Soda Ash**: The futures market lacks a main trading logic and is in a narrow - range volatile pattern. The fundamental oversupply problem still exists. Although the inventory did not accumulate this week, it has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The previously reduced production capacity has resumed, and the weekly production has returned to a high level of 750,000 tons. In the medium - term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. After the traditional summer maintenance season in the soda ash industry, with high supply, if there is no actual capacity exit or production reduction in the future, the inventory will be further pressured. Follow the implementation of policies and the production adjustment of soda ash plants. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels when the price rebounds [6]. - **Glass**: The spot market had good trading this week, and the inventory decreased. At the beginning of the week, the news of the conversion of coal - gas production lines to clean energy in the Shahe area triggered a rise in the futures market. The specific conversion time is to be determined, and the expected shutdown time is limited. There are still some plans for production resumption and ignition in the future. Currently, the inventory of manufacturers in the Shahe area is gradually increasing, while the inventory in the middle reaches has not significantly decreased. In terms of industry supply - demand, the deep - processing orders have improved seasonally but are still weak, and the operating rate of low - emissivity glass has remained low, showing no obvious peak - season characteristics. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the completion volume is shrinking. Eventually, the industry needs to clear excess capacity. Follow the implementation of policies in different regions and the inventory replenishment performance of the middle and lower reaches approaching the peak season. Short - term: stay on the sidelines; medium - term: pay attention to the actual peak - season demand [6]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On September 12, the price of glass 2505 was 1282 yuan/ton, up 0.23% from the previous day; the price of glass 2509 was 686 yuan/ton, down 0.60% [6]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The price of soda ash 2505 was 1359 yuan/ton, up 0.44% from the previous day; the price of soda ash 2509 was 1168 yuan/ton, up 0.44% [6]. - **Supply**: The soda ash operating rate was 86.22%, down 1.24% from the previous day. The weekly soda ash production was 761,100 tons, up 1.25%. The daily melting volume of float glass was 160,200 tons, up 0.38% [6]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory decreased by 2.33%, the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 1.35%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 2.70% [6]. - **Real - estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area was - 0.09%, up 0.09% from the previous period; the growth rate of construction area was 0.05%, down 2.43% [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The unexpected decline in the US PPI data has temporarily alleviated market concerns about US inflation. Combined with the weakening of the US non - farm employment data, the market's expectation of multiple interest rate cuts by the Fed this year has been further strengthened, and precious metals continue to trade near historical highs. The upcoming US CPI data may affect the subsequent rate - cut amplitude and bring new fluctuations to the market [2][3]. - For various metals, their market trends are influenced by factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy changes. Each metal has its own trading strategy based on its specific situation. 3. Summary by Metal Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Market Review**: London gold rose 0.45% to $3639.81/oz, and London silver rose 0.57% to $41.14/oz. The US dollar index rose 0.07% to 97.81, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was at 4.044%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.06% to 7.1207. In the domestic market, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.21% to 835.16 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 0.47% to 9817 yuan/kg [2]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI annual rate was 2.6%, a new low since June, and the monthly rate was - 0.1%. The Trump administration's actions and the Fed's possible rate - cut probability are also important factors [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The unexpected decline in PPI and the weak labor market data have strengthened the market's expectation of rate cuts, and precious metals continue to trade near historical highs. The upcoming CPI data may affect the rate - cut amplitude [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For Shanghai gold, continue to hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average; for Shanghai silver, consider lightly testing long positions based on the 5 - day moving average. Adopt a bullish collar option strategy and wait and see for arbitrage [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 80190 yuan/ton, up 0.64%, and the LME copper closed at $10012/ton, up 0.96%. The LME inventory decreased by 225 tons to 15.50 million tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 1010 tons to 30.87 million tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI was lower than expected, China's 8 - month CPI and PPI data were released, and Peru's copper production in July increased year - on - year [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in US PPI and weak employment data have increased the market's expectation of rate cuts. The supply of copper is tight due to production accidents, and the domestic refined copper production in September is expected to decline, but imports increase. The terminal consumption is weak, but the substitution of refined copper for scrap copper is prominent [7][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider laying out long positions after a callback, conduct inter - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of the alumina 2510 contract rose 10 yuan to 2915 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions decreased [12]. - **Important Information**: The approval of an Indian bauxite mining project was postponed, which may affect the production of an alumina plant. There were spot alumina procurement tenders by electrolytic aluminum enterprises, and the industry's average profit in August increased [12][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The oversupply of alumina is more obvious in the spot market, and the prices are falling. The supply is flowing from the north to the south, and the fundamental weakness remains. However, beware of the interference of "anti - involution" sentiment on prices [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to run weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 40 to 20390 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed different trends [17]. - **Important Information**: Policy changes in the recycling of aluminum, such as tax refund and reverse invoicing compliance, have affected some enterprises in Anhui and Jiangxi. The industry's average cost and profit in August were calculated, and the inventory in some regions increased [17][18][19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Policy changes have affected the supply of scrap aluminum. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, and the supply is tightening. The alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly strong [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will fluctuate with the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [21][22]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai aluminum 2510 contract rose 45 yuan to 20830 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in different regions decreased [24]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI data, China's 8 - month CPI and PPI data were released. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased, and some overseas and domestic electrolytic aluminum projects had new developments [24][25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market's expectation of rate cuts is rising. The fundamentals are supportive with increased aluminum - water conversion rate, decreased ingot production, and improved downstream开工率. Overseas projects' progress needs attention [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price will fluctuate with the external market in the short term. Consider going long after a callback. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [27]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc rose 0.72% to $2887.5/ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 rose 0.34% to 22245 yuan/ton. The spot market trading was average [29]. - **Important Information**: The CZSPT set the import zinc concentrate processing fee guidance range for the end of the fourth quarter of 2025. The domestic zinc inventory increased, and a company's production data was disclosed [29][30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic zinc smelting production may decline slightly in September, but the consumption is weak, and the domestic inventory is accumulating. The LME inventory is decreasing and has a certain support for the price [31][33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and consider lightly laying out short positions at high prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [33]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead rose 0.53% to $1988.5/ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 rose 0.03% to 16845 yuan/ton. The spot market trading was weak [35]. - **Important Information**: The domestic lead inventory increased, and a battery manufacturer planned to expand production, and a smelter was about to resume production [35][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The reduction and shutdown of domestic lead smelters due to losses and weak consumption may lead to a weak supply - demand pattern in the short term, and the price will continue to fluctuate [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: The Shanghai lead price may move sideways in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel rose $65 to $15170/ton, and the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 290 to 120780 yuan/ton. The spot premiums remained stable [39]. - **Important Information**: SMM predicted the increase of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore prices, and national economic and social development policies were reported [39][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The weak US employment data and high supply growth rate limit the upward space of nickel prices, and the price trend is weak [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will fluctuate widely. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [40][42]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2510 contract rose 20 to 12845 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were reported. The inventory in Foshan decreased [44]. - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel deep - processing project was approved, and the market was worried about recession risks despite the Fed's expected rate cut [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's expected rate cut in September and weak domestic consumption growth, combined with supply pressure, are expected to keep the stainless - steel price in a wide - range fluctuation pattern [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will fluctuate widely. Wait and see for arbitrage [45]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract rose 1.58% to 8665 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [47][49]. - **Important Information**: National economic and social development policies were reported [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand of industrial silicon is in a tight - balance state. The low inventory of manufacturers and high acceptance of high - price silicon by downstream enterprises provide support for price increases. The silicon industry conference may bring good news [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options, and participate in the reverse arbitrage of the 11th and 12th contracts [50]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract fell 4.40% to 52885 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of some products decreased [52]. - **Important Information**: National economic and social development policies were reported. The silicon wafer production in September increased, and the polysilicon production was expected to remain stable. The industry's total inventory was high [53]. - **Logic Analysis**: The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, but the short - term 11th contract may face a callback due to factors such as futures premium and concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation. After a callback and stabilization, long positions are recommended [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: Participate in long positions after a callback and stabilization, conduct reverse arbitrage of the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy wide - straddle options for profit - taking [54]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract fell 3620 to 70720 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of electric and industrial carbonate decreased [56]. - **Important Information**: Shanghai's new energy power - grid price reform policy and national fiscal policy information were reported [56][58]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand of lithium carbonate is still tight in the short term, and the price has technical support. However, the long - term oversupply is difficult to reverse [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [58]. Tin - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai tin 2510 contract rose 0.93% to 271990 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable. The trading volume was acceptable [60]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI data, China's 8 - month CPI and PPI data were released, and the domestic refined tin production in August decreased [60][62]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in US PPI has strengthened the expectation of Fed rate cuts. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the traditional consumption season may be postponed. The LME and domestic inventories have changed [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price will be boosted in the short term due to the strengthened Fed rate - cut expectation. Wait and see for options [63].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain high in the short term but may face a risk of decline if polysilicon enterprises implement production cuts. The price of polysilicon is also in high - level consolidation, and the pressure to raise the spot price is large, which may suppress the futures market [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply is increasing steadily, while the demand is mixed. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand has increased in the short term, but the terminal demand pressure is large [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,400 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 3.03% to 8,665 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: With the continuous rise of silicon prices, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. In the southwest production area, the power cost has decreased during the wet season, and the enterprise operation rate has steadily increased [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, but some silicon material plants have复产 plans, which will bring some demand increments. The supply of organic silicon is temporarily tightened due to an accident at a large factory, but the supply pressure has increased recently. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at a low level is insufficient [1]. Investment Strategy - Overall, due to potential supply disturbances, the industrial silicon futures market strengthened again. It is expected that the silicon price will remain high in the short term. The trading strategy is to operate in the range, try to go long on dips, and consider participating in the reverse spread of contracts 2511 and 2512 [1]. Polysilicon Price Information - N - type dense material decreased 0.10% to 50.05 yuan/kg, N - type re - feeding material decreased 0.10% to 51.44 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material decreased 0.10% to 49.05 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 48.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased 3.93% to 53,520 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, but some may have new production capacity put into operation. It is expected that the output will increase slightly, approaching 110,000 tons in July and increasing to about 130,000 tons in August [1]. - Demand: Many upstream and downstream enterprises completed procurement and shipment before the end of August, the trading volume in the polysilicon market increased significantly, and the inventory decreased significantly. However, the terminal demand pressure is large, and the component price increase is difficult [1]. Investment Strategy - Overall, due to supply disturbances and high downstream raw material inventory, it is difficult to have concentrated restocking in the short term. The pressure to raise the spot price is large, which may suppress the futures market. The trading strategy is to take profit on previous long positions in a timely manner and try to go long on dips before the supply - side reform policy is implemented [1]. Other Information - On September 10, the State Grid Shanghai Electric Power Company issued a notice on the market - oriented reform of the new - energy on - grid electricity price. From January 2026, the on - grid electricity of new - energy projects in the city will enter the power market [1]. - On the evening of September 9, JinkoSolar (688223) announced that its subsidiary Zhejiang JinkoSolar Energy Co., Ltd. plans to sell 80% of the equity of its subsidiary Zhejiang JinkoSolar New Materials Co., Ltd. to Dico Co., Ltd. (300842) for 80 million yuan [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and tin. It points out that due to the weakness of the US labor market and potential tariff impacts, the "stagflation-like" risk remains, and precious metals are expected to maintain a strong performance at high levels. For other metals, factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomics, and geopolitical events are considered to determine their market trends and provide corresponding trading strategies [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold initially broke through the 3670 mark but then dropped, closing down 0.32% at $3624.17 per ounce; London silver closed down 1.13% at $40.86 per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract reached a historical high and closed up 0.11% at 832.6 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract closed up 1.08% at 9760 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index closed up 0.33% at 97.77, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded to 4.0799%, and the RMB against the US dollar closed up 0.06% at 7.125 [3]. - **Important Information**: The US Supreme Court will hear Trump's tariff appeal case; the US economy may have added 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months ending in March than previously estimated; the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 93%, and Israel launched an attack on Hamas leaders in Qatar [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The weakness of the US labor market and geopolitical events led to the volatile trend of gold. Despite short - term fluctuations, precious metals are expected to remain strong at high levels due to the "stagflation - like" risk [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold existing long positions in gold against the 5 - day moving average; take profit on existing long positions in silver at high prices. Adopt a bullish collar option strategy and wait and see for arbitrage [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed down 0.14% at 79,600 yuan per ton, and the LME copper closed up 0.1% at $9916.5 per ton. The LME inventory decreased by 550 tons to 155,200 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 1917 tons to 307,600 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US non - farm employment was revised down by 911,000; Anglo American agreed to merge with Teck Resources; a mining accident in the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia led to the suspension of operations [6][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's 9 - month interest rate cut is confirmed, but the market's concern about recession has increased. The supply of refined copper in September is expected to decline, and the inventory in non - US regions is accumulating slowly. The consumption shows a weakening trend, but the substitution of refined copper for scrap copper is prominent [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term correction, pay attention to the support level of 78,500 yuan per ton and consider buying after the price stabilizes. Conduct cross - market positive arbitrage and cross - month arbitrage of buying 10 and selling 12. Wait and see for options [8]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc closed down 0.21% at $2867 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 closed down 0.32% at 22,130 yuan per ton. The domestic spot market trading was average [10]. - **Important Information**: The CZSPT issued the reference range for the import zinc concentrate processing fee for the end of the fourth quarter of 2025; the domestic zinc ingot inventory increased; Huayu Mining completed a certain amount of mining and metal production in the first half of 2025 [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic zinc smelting production may decline slightly in September, but the consumption is weaker than expected, and the domestic inventory is accumulating. The LME zinc price is supported by inventory reduction [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Existing short positions can continue to be held, beware of the impact of funds on zinc prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [12]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead closed down 0.6% at $1978 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 closed down 0.56% at 16,820 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was light [14]. - **Important Information**: The domestic lead ingot social inventory increased; a lead - acid battery manufacturer in the southwest plans to start production in October; a large recycled lead smelter in the east is about to resume production [14][15]. - **Logic Analysis**: The reduction and suspension of production of domestic recycled lead smelters have increased, and the consumption is weak. The short - term supply and demand may maintain a double - weak pattern, and the Shanghai lead price will continue to fluctuate [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term Shanghai lead price may move sideways. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [16][18]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel price dropped to $15,105 per ton, and the inventory increased to 218,070 tons. The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2510 dropped to 120,400 yuan per ton [19]. - **Important Information**: Auric Mining completed a major acquisition of nickel mining rights [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: The poor US employment data and the continuous increase in LME inventory indicate an oversupply of refined nickel in China. The supply growth rate in September is higher, and the upward space of nickel price is limited [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to be weak and volatile. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [21]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2510 contract dropped to 12,835 yuan per ton, and the spot market prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are in a certain range [23]. - **Important Information**: The US stainless steel price remained stable in August due to tariffs, and potential trade quota agreements may bring new variables [23][24]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation in September is rising, but the market is more worried about recession. The domestic consumption growth is limited, and the supply pressure is increasing [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless steel price will maintain a wide - range shock. Wait and see for arbitrage [24]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 8410 yuan per ton, up 1.58%. The spot price was stable [26]. - **Important Information**: A 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project in Karamay is under investment promotion [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon remain in a tight - balance state. The price increase space is greater than the decrease space. The futures may continue to correct, and buying can be considered near the August low [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: There may be a short - term correction, buy after a full correction. Sell out - of - the - money put options and participate in the reverse arbitrage of 11 and 12 contracts [27][28]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 53,520 yuan per ton, down 0.73%. The spot prices of some types of polysilicon decreased [30]. - **Important Information**: The installed capacity of photovoltaic power in the US in the first half of 2025 accounted for 75% of the new power installed capacity [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for polysilicon in September is about 116,000 tons, and the production is expected to be around 130,000 tons. The long - term price trend is upward, but the short - term may correct [30][31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Participate in the correction band with a light position and short - term, and participate in long positions after the correction stabilizes. Conduct reverse arbitrage of 2511 and 2512 contracts and buy a wide - straddle option for profit - taking [31]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract dropped to 72,900 yuan per ton, and the spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate remained unchanged [34]. - **Important Information**: The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers plans to establish a new energy vehicle battery branch; CATL launched a new battery technology; the export of new energy passenger vehicles in August increased year - on - year [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market interprets that CATL may resume production early, and the long - term trend will return to the logic of oversupply [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a bearish approach for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [37]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 269,040 yuan per ton, down 0.28%. The spot market trading was okay, but the market was skeptical about short - term consumption improvement [38]. - **Important Information**: The US non - farm employment was revised down [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The poor US non - farm data led to a weak trend of tin. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is expected to recover late. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and other factors [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price may be weak and volatile. Wait and see for options [39].

Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures market continues to show weakness, with lithium carbonate and polysilicon experiencing corrections, while oil prices stabilize due to geopolitical events [1][3] - As of the afternoon close on September 10, the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1446.70 points, down 4.09 points or 0.28% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1998.40 points, down 5.65 points or 0.28% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - Industrial silicon futures opened low but rose, closing with a gain of 1.58%, driven by market sentiment despite weak fundamentals [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology indicated ongoing efforts to regulate irrational competition in key industries like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics, which has shown initial results [2] - Industrial silicon remains in a tight balance, with low manufacturer inventories and strong price support, although market sentiment is influenced by related products [2] Group 3 - Geopolitical tensions have led to a rise in oil prices, with SC crude oil main contract closing up 0.58%, while liquefied gas and fuel oil contracts rose over 1% [3] - Despite the rise, OPEC+ production increases are creating oversupply pressures, limiting the extent of price gains [3] - Market sentiment remains cautious, with the overall trend in the crude oil market still bearish [3] Group 4 - News of the resumption of the Jiangxiawo lithium mine has led to a significant drop in lithium prices, with the main contract falling by 4.87% [4] - The market is shifting focus back to the oversupply situation in lithium carbonate, despite initial bullish sentiment following supply concerns [4] - Analysts suggest that while there are expectations for a strong demand season in the second half of the year, high supply and uncertainties in the fundamentals may lead to continued weak fluctuations in lithium prices [4] Group 5 - Palm oil prices fell over 2%, reaching a one-week low, influenced by a bearish supply-demand report from Malaysia and declining soybean oil prices [5] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 4.18% to 2.2025 million tons, while exports decreased by 19.66%, raising concerns about future supply-demand pressures [5] - Domestic demand for oilseeds may provide some support, but uncertainty remains in the oilseed sector, which is expected to continue fluctuating [5]