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显微镜下的中国经济(2025年第20期):如何看待5月宏观经济形势
CMS· 2025-06-03 09:34
显微镜下的中国经济(2025 年第 20 期) 频率:每周 目前看,5 月供给形势可能仍较为稳定,需求方面出口和消费相对较好,房地 产投资继续拖累投资整体形势。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《央国企动态系列报告之 40 ——并购重组新规出台,央企 上市公司加速新兴产业布局和 "两非""两资"资产剥离》 2025-06-03 2、《美国国内政治加剧对外政 策动荡———国际时政周评》 2025-06-02 3、《PPI 或进一步下探——宏 观与大类资产周报》2025-06-02 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 06 月 03 日 如何看待 5 月宏观经济形势 正文目录 | 1、开工率 | | --- | | 2、产能利用率…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ...
价格回落势头渐止——5月PMI数据解读
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-06-01 02:15
宏观月报 / 2025.05.31 ——5 月 PMI 数据解读 证券研究报告 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号:S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 分析师 马骏 SAC 证书编号:S0160523080004 majun@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《PMI 节前还比较弱——1 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-01-31 2. 《PMI 节后表现如何?——2 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-03-01 3. 《出口带动需求回暖——3 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-03-31 4. 《生产高位扩张,价格持续上行—— 4 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-04-31 5. 《成本压力上升——5 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-05-31 6. 《PMI 还是弱了些——6 月 PMI 数据 解读》 2024-06-30 7. 《出口订单创同期新高——7 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-07-31 8. 《外需仍有回升——8 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-08-31 9. 《PMI 再现背离,经济景气如何?— —9 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-09 ...
2025年5月PMI点评:“抢出口”带动制造业PMI回暖
EBSCN· 2025-05-31 14:31
Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is reported at 49.5%, a significant increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2][4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities[5][14] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand conditions[5][14] - High-energy industries continue to decline, with the PMI dropping to 47.0%, down 0.7 percentage points, indicating ongoing challenges in these sectors[6] External Trade - The new export orders index rose to 47.5%, a significant increase of 2.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in export activities following tariff reductions[21] - The import index increased to 47.1%, up 3.7 percentage points, suggesting improved import conditions[21] Service Sector - The service sector PMI increased slightly to 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, remaining in the expansion zone, driven by increased tourism and hospitality activities during the May Day holiday[31] Construction Sector - The construction PMI is at 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in expansion primarily due to weakened housing demand, although infrastructure projects are accelerating[35] - Special bond issuance has increased significantly, with 443.2 billion yuan issued in May, up from 230.1 billion yuan in April, supporting investment in infrastructure[35]
5月PMI:经济呈现回稳态势,关注外贸修复弹性
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-31 13:20
Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May is 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from April, indicating marginal improvement in manufacturing activity[1] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from April, returning to the expansion zone after briefly falling below 50%[3] - The new orders index recorded 49.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from April, suggesting a slowdown in the decline of manufacturing demand[11] Group 2: Industry Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months[1] - Equipment manufacturing PMI increased to 51.2%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in this sector[1] - The coal-fired power generation's cumulative output in May increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while cumulative output for the year decreased by 6.8%[6] Group 3: External Trade and Demand - The new export orders index for May is 47.5%, up 2.8 percentage points from April, reflecting cautious optimism in external demand[15] - The government plans to increase support for consumer goods replacement, raising the special bonds for this initiative from 150 billion yuan to 300 billion yuan[12] - The automotive market saw a retail scale of approximately 1.85 million vehicles in May, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%[13]
价格回落势头渐止——5月PMI数据解读【陈兴团队•财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-05-31 08:13
Core Viewpoint - The national manufacturing PMI for May recorded at 49.5%, showing a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a near median level for the same period over the past five years [1][3][4]. Demand and Supply - Both demand and supply sides have improved, with external demand rebounding more strongly than internal demand. The new order index rose to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, while the new export order index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5% [6][12]. - The production index rose by 0.9 percentage points to 50.7%, indicating a recovery in manufacturing production [6][10]. Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed significant growth in new orders, with indices above 52%. Consumer goods manufacturing also saw a stable increase, with new export orders rising over 6 percentage points into the expansion zone [1][8]. - However, some industries, such as textiles and non-ferrous metal processing, reported new order and production indices below the critical point, indicating insufficient release of production and demand [6][8]. Price Trends - The decline in price indices has narrowed significantly, with raw material prices and factory gate prices both decreasing by only 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. This indicates that the ability of companies to pass on costs has not yet recovered [10][12]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index recorded at 50.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points but still above the critical point. The construction sector showed a business activity index of 51%, indicating ongoing expansion [12][13]. - The service sector's business activity index rose to 50.2%, reflecting a slight recovery driven by holiday consumption demand [13].
主要指标回升向好 我国经济总体产出保持扩张——透视5月份PMI数据
Xin Hua She· 2025-05-31 07:16
Economic Overview - In May, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1][2] - The comprehensive PMI output index increased by 0.2 percentage points, reflecting overall economic expansion [1][4] Manufacturing Sector - The new export orders index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, suggesting a slowdown in the decline of manufacturing exports [2] - The new orders index rose by 0.6 percentage points to 49.8%, indicating stable market demand [2] - The manufacturing production index returned to the expansion zone at 50.7%, up by 0.9 percentage points [2] - The raw material purchasing index increased by 1.3 percentage points to 47.6%, showing a recovery in procurement activities [2] Key Industries - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months [3] - Equipment manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2%, and consumer goods PMI increased to 50.2%, reflecting improvements of 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points respectively [3] - Large enterprises' PMI increased by 1.5 percentage points to 50.7%, with production and new orders indices at 51.5% and 52.5% respectively [3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points but still indicating expansion [4] - The service industry business activity index rose by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%, while the construction industry index decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 51% [4] - The non-manufacturing business activity expectation index was at 55.9%, indicating optimism among businesses [4]
制造业PMI回升至49.5%,企业信心保持稳定
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-05-31 03:11
Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing production index increased by over 4 percentage points, reaching above 54%, maintaining above 50% for 10 consecutive months [1] - The manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in manufacturing activity [1] - The new export orders index rose to 47.5%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points, suggesting a slowdown in the decline of manufacturing exports [4] - The production index for manufacturing returned to the expansion zone at 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [5] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.7%, with a production index increase of 1.7 percentage points, indicating a strong recovery in supply and demand [5] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.3%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, but still indicating expansion [10] - The civil engineering construction industry saw a significant increase in new export orders, with the business activity index rising to over 60% [10] - The telecommunications services business activity index rose to over 60%, reflecting strong demand in the sector [10][11] - The information services sector continues to show growth potential, supported by policy measures and sustained market demand [11]
工业企业利润加快恢复 彰显工业强大韧性和抗冲击能力
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-05-28 01:43
Core Insights - The industrial sector in China has shown signs of recovery, with significant growth in revenue and profits for large-scale industrial enterprises in the first four months of the year [1][4] - Positive factors such as policy effects, marginal recovery in market demand, and efficient resource utilization have contributed to the improved operational conditions of industrial enterprises [1][4] Revenue and Profit Growth - From January to April, large-scale industrial enterprises achieved operating revenue of 43.44 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [1] - Profit growth for these enterprises was 1.4%, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - In April alone, profits increased by 3.0% year-on-year, up by 0.4 percentage points from March [1] Industrial Production Trends - In April, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 6.1%, marking one of the highest monthly growth rates since last year [2] - Out of 41 major industrial categories, 36 experienced year-on-year growth in added value, indicating a broad-based recovery [2] Sector-Specific Performance - Manufacturing profits increased by 8.6% year-on-year from January to April, contributing significantly to overall industrial profit growth [2] - The equipment manufacturing sector led the profit growth with an 11.2% increase, contributing 3.6 percentage points to the total industrial profit growth [3] - High-tech manufacturing profits rose by 9.0%, surpassing the average growth rate of all large-scale industrial enterprises by 7.6 percentage points [3] Policy Impact and Future Outlook - The implementation of supportive policies, including the "two重" and "两新" initiatives, has stimulated domestic demand and contributed to industrial growth [2][4] - The introduction of long-term special government bonds and policies for equipment upgrades has positively impacted related industries [3] - Despite the positive trends, challenges such as international uncertainties and internal pressures on cash flow remain, necessitating continued support for struggling enterprises [4]
2025年1-4月工业企业利润分析:利润小幅改善,库存继续去化
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-05-27 08:33
宏观动态报告 F券 CG 利润小幅改善,库存继续去化 2025 年 1-4 月工业企业利润分析 分析师 张迪 网:zhangdi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码:S0130524060001 研究助理:铁传奥 风险提示 1. 国内政策时滞的风险 2. 海外经济衰退的风险 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 2025 年 5 月 27 日 5 月 27 日国家统计局发布:1—4 月份,全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 ● 21170.2 亿元,同比增长 1.4%(前值 0.8%); 实现营业收入 43.44 万亿元, 同比增长 3.2%(前值 3.4%)。3 月利润当月同比 3.0%(前值 2.6%)。工业 企业利润连续两个月正增走扩。 利润率改善对利润增速加快有较大贡献。从量、价、利润率三要素模型来看, o 贡献最多的还是量,工业增加值 1-4 月实现同比 6.4%的强劲增长,单月同比 上涨 6.1%,虽然 4 月工业增加值环比较 3 月有所下滑,但仍在"三抢"的带 动下有较高增速。4月转口贸易"抢出口"和 ...
中国国家发改委:将适时推出“两新”领域增量和储备政策
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-05-20 15:41
Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) of China is set to enhance policy reserves and research on "Two New" initiatives, which include large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade-in programs, to stimulate consumption, stabilize investment, promote transformation, and improve livelihoods [1][2] Group 1: Consumption Enhancement - As of May 5, 2023, five major product categories, including automobiles, home appliances, digital products, home renovation, and electric bicycles, have driven sales of approximately 830 billion RMB [1] - The trade-in program for automobiles has seen over 3 million subsidy applications, while over 55 million units of 12 categories of home appliances have been purchased through trade-in programs [2] Group 2: Investment Growth - From January to April 2023, investment in equipment and tools increased by 18.2% year-on-year, contributing 64.5% to overall investment growth [1] - Investment in sectors closely related to "Two New," such as computer and office equipment manufacturing, consumer goods manufacturing, and equipment manufacturing, saw growth rates of 28.9%, 13.4%, and 8.2% respectively [1] Group 3: Transformation and Upgrading - The demand for green, intelligent, and high-quality products is driving equipment updates, which in turn enhance production efficiency and improve industry performance and profitability [1] Group 4: Policy Implementation - The NDRC plans to expedite fund allocation for the 2024 consumer goods trade-in program and improve fund utilization efficiency [2] - Future initiatives include simplifying subsidy application processes, establishing a direct funding mechanism, and implementing loan interest subsidies for equipment updates to reduce financing costs for businesses [2]