今日各行业表现（截至下午13:59） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 2.44 | 1081.71 | 64.69 | 亚太科技 | 10.06 | | 通信 | 2.31 | 1139.18 | 27.11 | 广和通 | 20.01 | | 石油石化 | 1.27 | 99.50 | 37.94 | 润贝航科 | 4.82 | | 商贸零售 | 1.20 | 256.89 | 26.08 | 赫美集团 | 10.12 | | 社会服务 | 1.01 | 131.83 | 15.98 | 峨眉山A | 10.02 | | 电子 | 1.00 | 2944.16 | 29.16 | 豪声电子 | 27.38 | | 国防军工 | 0.94 | 565.96 | 24.55 | 雷科防务 | 10.05 | | 建筑材料 | 0.93 | 144.63 | 41.80 | 福建水泥 | 6.28 | | 汽车 | 0.93 | 668.55 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Hong Kong stocks are expected to continue a wide range of fluctuations in December, driven by three main factors: potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, narrowing US-China interest rate differentials boosting the valuation of RMB assets, and the gradual improvement of the domestic economy under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is likely to enhance market liquidity in Hong Kong [1] - The narrowing of US-China interest rate differentials is expected to elevate the valuation of RMB assets, supporting the upward movement of Hong Kong stock valuations [1] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to gradually clarify and improve the fundamentals, potentially enhancing profit expectations for Chinese enterprises listed in Hong Kong [1] - Long-term prospects for 2026, as the starting year of the "14th Five-Year Plan," indicate that developments in new productivity sectors and easing US-China trade tensions will support the resilience of Hong Kong stocks [1] - The high-dividend sector is recommended for attention, particularly the Hong Kong Dividend ETF (159331), which tracks the high-dividend index of Hong Kong stocks [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a significant downward trend in November, contrasting sharply with the optimistic expectations at the beginning of the month, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.67% and the ChiNext Index falling by 4.23% [1][2] - Defensive sectors such as banking and textiles performed relatively well, while growth sectors like technology and automotive faced substantial declines, with the computer industry down by 5.26% [1][2] Key Factors Influencing Market Performance - A notable cooling in global artificial intelligence investment themes has directly impacted the performance of growth sectors, initiated by a significant pullback in U.S. tech stocks, with the Nasdaq index experiencing a maximum drop of 7.37% in November [2][3] - Domestic economic recovery momentum remains insufficient, as indicated by a drop in the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) to 49.0, and a 5.5% year-on-year decline in profits for industrial enterprises [3][4] - The tightening of global liquidity conditions has also exerted pressure on risk assets, with U.S. non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000 in September, leading to a shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [3][4] Market Behavior and Trends - As the year-end approaches, institutional investors are adopting strategies to lock in profits and preserve performance, leading to a shift from high-valuation sectors to low-valuation defensive stocks, resulting in significant market structure differentiation [4][5] - The overall market turnover has decreased from around 2 trillion to approximately 1.7 trillion, indicating reduced liquidity and increased volatility in individual stocks [4][5] Investment Strategy and Outlook - A "defensive + growth" allocation strategy is recommended, balancing stable cash flow from defensive sectors like banking and utilities with increased exposure to high-growth areas such as energy storage and military industries [6][7] - The energy storage sector is expected to grow over 40% due to rising demand and policy support, while the military sector benefits from ongoing national defense modernization efforts [6][7]

| 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 2.97 | 758.34 | 98.98 | 亚太科技 | 10.06 | | 石油石化 | 1.58 | 57.59 | 39.26 | 准油股份 | 3.24 | | 通信 | 1.46 | 696.65 | 31.93 | 广和通 | 15.64 | | 建筑材料 | 1.23 | 95.27 | 49.64 | 塔牌集团 | 8.40 | | 纺织服饰 | 1.20 | 75.89 | 8.62 | 恒辉安防 | 13.64 | | 轻工制造 | 1.09 | 101.80 | 12.14 | 金运激光 | 11.48 | | 国防军工 | 0.97 | 380.28 | 24.22 | 航天环宇 | 11.88 | | 社会服务 | 0.96 | 79.33 | 15.17 | 峨眉山A | 10.02 | | 汽车 | 0.81 | 380.30 | 41.64 | 智慧农业 | 10.06 ...

每日经济新闻 中信证券分析称，12月份市场面临美联储降息与否、中央经济工作会议部署等变量，考虑到市场增量资 金主要以绝对收益导向资金为主，A股/港股可能出现"急跌慢涨"。从配置角度看，资源/传统制造业定 价权的重估、企业出海仍是核心增配方向，建议关注化工、电新等方向。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分 布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.4%，石油石化行业占比为32.7%，有望充分受益于反内卷、调结构和 淘汰落后产能等政策。 12月1日，A股三大股指高开，沪指涨0.14％，深成指涨0.42％，创业板涨0.26％。中证石化产业指数震 荡上行，现涨约1.4%，成分股和邦生物涨停，藏格矿业、亚钾国际、三棵树等跟涨。相关ETF方面， 石化ETF（159731）近6天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"1882.16万元，资金布局特征明显。 ...

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the context of the Fed's increasing expectation of interest rate cuts and the call between Chinese and US leaders, the market risk appetite has recovered. The stock market oscillated upwards last week, with the technology sector that had adjusted recently performing well, and the consumer sector also showing good performance after the six - ministry plan was issued. The bond market was weak, and the yield increased significantly. In the convertible bond market, half of the individual convertible bonds closed up, the CSI Convertible Bond Index dropped 0.27% for the whole week, and the arithmetic average parity increased 3.77%. The overall conversion premium rate decreased 4.65% compared with the previous week [1][7][8]. - Looking forward, with the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts rising again and important meetings in December, along with the continuous advancement of the industrial process and the upward revision of corporate profit expectations, the market still has room to rise further. For convertible bonds, at the current valuation level, the bond - bottom protection of debt - biased convertible bonds is limited. In the short term, it is still recommended to focus on high - volatility underlying stock varieties in balanced convertible bonds or low - premium and non - callable equity - biased individual bonds. In terms of direction, pay attention to growth sectors such as AI applications, energy storage, semiconductor equipment and materials, as well as sectors such as photovoltaics and refining that are expected to benefit from policy support [2][18]. Summary by Directory Market Trends Stock Market - In the context of the Fed's increasing expectation of interest rate cuts and the call between Chinese and US leaders, the market risk appetite recovered last week, and the stock market oscillated upwards. The technology and consumer sectors performed well, while the dividend sector had a slight adjustment. The A - share market showed different trends on each trading day, with changes in trading volume and active sectors [7]. - Most Shenwan primary industries closed up last week. The communication, electronics, comprehensive, media, and light manufacturing sectors had the highest increases, while the petroleum and petrochemical, banking, coal, and transportation sectors performed poorly [8]. Bond Market - Last week, affected by the strong sentiment in the stock market and relevant rumors such as the new fund sales regulations, the central bank's bond - buying scale, and public fund redemptions, the bond market was weak, and the yield increased significantly. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.84% on Friday, up 2.46bp from the previous week [1][8]. Convertible Bond Market - Half of the individual convertible bonds closed up last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index dropped 0.27% for the whole week, the price median dropped 0.02%, the arithmetic average parity increased 3.77%, and the overall conversion premium rate decreased 4.65% compared with the previous week. The arithmetic average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with parities in the ranges of [90,100), [100,110), and [110,120) changed by - 2.04%, - 1.31%, and - 2.39% respectively, and were at the 85%, 96%, and 75% quantiles since 2023 [8]. - Most industries in the convertible bond market closed up last week. The steel, building materials, machinery, and electronics sectors performed well, while the social services, non - bank finance, petroleum and petrochemical, and coal sectors performed poorly [11][12]. - At the individual bond level, the convertible bonds of Dazhong (lithium mine), Chun 23 (consumer electronics), Tianyuan (landfill leachate treatment), Haohan (network intelligence), and Liyang (Ali chip concept) had the highest increases, while those of Bo 23 (non - ferrous metals), Wei 24 (solid waste treatment & call announced), Xinhua (lithium battery concept), Yanggu (rubber additives), and Huicheng (waste catalyst treatment) had the highest decreases [13]. - The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 282.476 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 56.495 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week [16]. Valuation Overview - As of last Friday (2025/11/28), in equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with parities in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 47.76%, 33.06%, 27.88%, 17.8%, 13.9%, and 11.64% respectively, and were at the 98%/97%, 90%/87%, 94%/95%, 83%/74%, 86%/83%, and 94%/92% quantiles since 2010/2021 [19]. - In debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of convertible bonds with parities below 70 yuan was - 4.01%, at the 1%/5% quantiles since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 42.86%, at the 86%/86% quantiles since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was 1.51%, at the 82%/83% quantiles since 2010/2021 [19]. Primary Market Tracking - No convertible bonds were announced for issuance last week (2025/11/24 - 2025/11/28), and Zhuomei Convertible Bond was listed. The underlying stock is Xingyuan Zhuomei, which belongs to the automobile industry, with a market value of 5.317 billion yuan as of November 28. The company is a professional enterprise in designing and manufacturing large - and medium - sized aluminum and magnesium alloy die - casting molds. The scale of the convertible bond issued this time is 450 million yuan, with a credit rating of A +, and it was listed on November 24. After deducting the issuance expenses, the funds are to be fully invested in the project of an annual output of 3 million sets of high - strength large - sized magnesium alloy precision - formed parts for automobiles [26]. - As of the announcements on November 28, there are no convertible bonds announced for issuance or listing in the coming week (2025/12/1 - 2025/12/5). Last week, one company (Lianrui New Materials) was approved for registration, one company (Shangsheng Electronics) passed the listing committee review, one company (Aike Technology) was accepted by the exchange, one company (Songyuan Safety) passed the shareholders' meeting, and one company (Shenling Environment) had a board of directors' plan. As of now, there are 97 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 145.89 billion yuan, including 7 that have been approved for registration with a total scale of 4.72 billion yuan and 6 that have passed the listing committee review with a total scale of 7.46 billion yuan [27].

金融工程 | 证券研究报告 — 周报 2025 年 11 月 30 日 中银量化多策略行业轮动 周报 – 20251127 当前（2025 年 11 月 27 日）中银多策略行业配置系统仓位：非银行金融 （11.5%）、交通运输（9.9%）、通信（8.8%）、基础化工（8.1%）、食 品饮料（7.9%）、有色金属（6.9%）、银行（6.4%）、家电（4.4%）、 纺织服装（4.2%）、综合（4.0%）、钢铁（4.0%）、煤炭（3.9%）、农 林牧渔（3.3%）、国防军工（3.2%）、医药（3.2%）、电力设备及新能 源（3.1%）、机械（1.8%）、电子（1.8%）、石油石化（1.2%）、电力 及公用事业（1.2%）、建筑（1.2%）。 相关研究报告 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（七）：如何把 握市场"未证伪情绪"构建行业动量策略》 20220917 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（八）："估值泡 沫保护"的高景气行业轮动策略》20221018 《中银证券宏观基本面行业轮动新框架：对传 统自上而下资产配置困境的破局》20230518 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（九）：长期反 转-中期动量-低拥挤"行业轮动策略》20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has boosted crude oil prices, with WTI crude futures closing up 0.71% and Brent oil futures up 1.09% during the specified period [6]. - Geopolitical developments, including ongoing negotiations regarding a peace plan between Ukraine and the U.S., are influencing market sentiment, although the Russian response remains cautious [6]. - In the chemical sector, the supply of popular fluorinated refrigerants is limited, maintaining high prices, while demand in the automotive and air conditioning sectors is expected to grow [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut is expected to support crude oil prices, despite a weak demand outlook in the U.S. and China [6]. - The report notes that the oil price may experience volatility in the short term, but long-term trends will be influenced by fundamental supply and demand dynamics, particularly with OPEC+ production increases [7]. Fluorochemicals - The report indicates that the supply of second-generation refrigerants is decreasing due to policy restrictions, while third-generation refrigerants have limited production quotas [6]. - The demand for refrigerants is expected to improve, driven by government incentives and a recovery in air conditioning production [6]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing a positive trend with inventory reduction and improving end-market fundamentals, suggesting potential for further price increases [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities emphasizes the importance of focusing on opportunities in resource and traditional manufacturing industries, highlighting the advantages of leading companies in sectors where China has a global market share [1] Group 1: Market Characteristics - The market is characterized by low volatility and a slow bull trend, with a notable decrease in the volatility of major broad-based indices [1] - The maximum drawdown of the Shanghai Composite Index this year is -9.7%, which is significantly lower than previous years, indicating a relatively stable market environment [1] - The Sharpe ratios for major indices have improved, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index exceeding 1, indicating favorable risk-adjusted returns [1] Group 2: Performance of Investment Strategies - Subjective long-only products have slightly outperformed the Wind All A index but continue to lag behind quantitative strategies, with average returns of 23.3% compared to 26.4% for Wind All A and 35.2% for quantitative products [2] - The gap between private and public subjective long strategies has reached a peak, with private strategies underperforming public ones by 7.6 percentage points [3] - The performance of balanced market selection products remains mediocre, indicating limited excess returns from stock selection despite significant index gains [2][3] Group 3: Capital Flow and Investment Behavior - There is a notable increase in allocation-type capital and quantitative pricing power, while the growth of active stock-picking funds is limited [4] - The influx of capital from insurance funds and "fixed income plus" products has contributed to market stability, but these funds are less sensitive to individual stock fundamentals [4] - The main source of active capital driving rapid increases in high-growth sectors has been margin financing, which has seen a net increase of approximately 700 billion yuan over two months [5] Group 4: Market Strategy and Outlook - The prevailing strategy among subjective long investors has become cautious, characterized by a "squat, hit, and withdraw" approach due to the lack of pricing power in individual stocks [6] - The report suggests that breaking the current market deadlock will require significant positive changes in fundamentals, particularly in domestic demand [7] - Without unexpected changes in fundamentals, the anticipated market movements may only reflect existing structural logic, limiting potential upside [7]