以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者李金玲 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您 的财富保驾护航。 数据速看： 2. 融资融券数据： 当前市场融资融券余额为18384.93亿元，较上期上升0.94%，其中融资 余额18265.53亿元，融券余额119.40亿元。本期两融日均交易额为1185.69亿元，较上期上 升9.77%，其中融资日均净买入1180.65亿元，较两周前上升9.79%，融券日均净卖出5.04 亿元，较上期上升5.54%。近两周融资净买入前三的行业分别为计算机、银行和非银金融； 融券净卖出前三的行业分别为非银金融、银行和石油石化。 3. 涨跌情况： 近两周全市场上涨家数高于下跌家数，近两周涨幅前三的行业为通信、计算机 和电子，跌幅前三的行业为美容护理、石油石化和医药生物。 4. 强弱分析： 近两周全部A股强弱分析得分为5.97，沪深300强弱分析得分5.83，创业板强 弱分析得分6.28，科创板强弱分析得分6.40，处于中性区间。 测量结果：健康 诊断说明： 本周上证综指向上突破3月高点，但当下行情距牛市启 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the marine economy investment opportunities, highlighting the positive impact of policy support and industry growth, similar to the Shanghai technology market but broader in scope [1][2] - The China Marine Economy Stock Price Index (932,056) has reached a new high since 2019, with a focus on small-cap stocks across various sectors including transportation, military, power equipment, machinery, agriculture, and oil & petrochemicals [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - Deep-sea oil and gas development has become more economically viable, with cost lines dropping below $40 per barrel, leading to increased demand for marine engineering equipment such as semi-submersible drilling platforms and FPSOs, benefiting companies like CIMC, Bomei, and China Shipbuilding [1][5][6] - The exploration phase requires semi-submersible drilling platforms, while production technology varies based on offshore distance, with FPSOs being essential for deep-water operations [7][8] - The offshore wind power sector is shifting towards deep-sea development, with significant resource potential and a rebound in turbine bidding prices, expected to lead to above-expectation earnings growth by Q2 2025 for companies like Dajin Heavy Industry, New Strong Union, and Guoda Special Materials [1][10][11] Additional Important Insights - The marine economy's growth is supported by high-quality development initiatives, with key investment areas identified by President Xi Jinping including marine technology, offshore wind power modernization, deep-sea fishing, marine biomedicine, and marine tourism [2][3] - The marine economy stock price index includes over 200 components, weighted by a defined "marine attribute coefficient," indicating a bias towards small-cap stocks [4] - The deep-sea development sector is expected to significantly increase operational volumes across the marine engineering sector, benefiting companies involved in drilling platforms, FPSOs, and pipeline vessels [9] - The global submarine cable industry is undergoing a generational shift, with a projected investment growth rate of 116% by 2025, driven by the surge in AI computing demand [19] Challenges and Opportunities - The wind power industry faces challenges in 2023 and 2024, but significant improvements in component production and delivery are anticipated starting Q2 2025, with several companies already showing strong profitability [11][12] - The marine economy is expected to create opportunities in the petrochemical sector, particularly in equipment demand and the need for corrosion-resistant materials [16] - The deep-water technology industry is receiving policy support and is recognized as a strategic emerging industry, with a focus on energy security and national defense [17][18] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on three main lines: core suppliers of national projects, high-tech barriers with urgent domestic replacement needs, and companies with proven commercial validation capabilities [23]

微观流动性监测，银行大规模定增 20250701 摘要 偏股型公募基金新发表现良好，但近期发行规模仍处低位，6 月预计延 续震荡，受地缘政治风险影响，市场避险情绪上升。 截至 6 月 22 日，北向资金成交额占比小幅回落，活跃度下降，受美股 反弹和新兴外资谨慎态度影响，北上资金成交活跃度仍处阶段性低位。 截至 6 月 22 日，两融余额占比小幅下降，两融净流入较前期减少 30%，市场投资情绪不高，两融交易额占比处于阶段性低位，但仍有修 复空间。 两融资金净流入集中于下游消费和上游原料支持服务板块，医药生物、 食品饮料、石油石化行业净流入居前，非银金融、机械设备、电子行业 净流出居前。 存量股票型 ETF 本期净申购额收窄，科创板 50ETF、白酒 ETF、中证 500ETF 及国联半导体 ETF 净申购领先，消费类、创业板及信息技术创 业板 ETF 净赎回领先。 未来两周 IPO 规模预计 26.5 亿元，本期股权融资规模大幅上升至 4,300 亿元，主要受益于中国银行、交通银行及邮储银行的大规模增发。 本期产业资本净减持 85.75 亿元，集中在中邮制造和支持服务板块，机 械设备、电子及基础化工行业净减持领 ...

2025 年 06 月 30 日 投资策略 估值与盈利周观察——6 月第 4 期：普涨 市场估值普涨，创业板指、成长居前。上周宽基指数估值普涨，创业 板指表现最优，红利表现最弱。从 PE、PB 偏离度的角度看，食品饮料、 农林牧渔、公用事业等行业估值较为便宜。向前看，本周市场 ERP 下降， 处于 21 年以来历史均值附近。 市场表现：微盘股、创业板指、成长表现最好；红利、消费、稳定表 现最弱。 行业表现：计算机、国防军工、非银金融涨幅前三，石油石化、食品 饮料、交通运输表现最弱。 相对估值：创业板指/沪深 300 相对 PE 上升，创业板值/沪深 300 相 对 PB 上升。 全 A ERP：ERP 较前一周下降，处于 21 年以来历史均值附近。 指数 PEG & PB-ROE: 红利 PEG 值最小，科创 50 风格 PB-ROE 值最小。 大类行业估值：金融地产估值高于 50%历史分位，原材料、设备制造、 工业服务、交通运输、消费、科技历史估值处于 50%左右及以下水平。 一级行业估值：各行业估值普涨，非银金融、农林牧渔、家电、食品 饮料估值处于近一年低位。 热门概念：无人驾驶、半导体材料、培育砖石、第 ...

策略研究 / 2025.06.30 全球资本流向非美,国内杠杆资金加快扩张 方奕(分析师) 021-38676666 -投资者微观行为洞察手册 · 6月第 3 期 登记编与 S0880520120005 本报告导读: 郭胤含(分析师) 021-38676666 本期市场交易热度大幅抬升,融资资金大幅流入,ETF与外资资金转为流出,偏股 基金新发规模边际下降。南下资金流入持续抬升。 合记编与 S0880524100001 投资要点: 田开轩(分析师) 市场定价状态:市场整体交易热度快速抬升,赚钱效应明显。1)市 0 场情绪(上升):本期国泰海通资金流入强度指数整体持续上升, 食记编与 S0880524080006 市场交易热度底部抬升,全 A 日均成交额从 1.2 万亿上升至 1.5 万 亿,上证指数换手率分位数上升至85%,科创板换手率分位数上升 至 40%。日均涨停家数上升至 71 家,最大连板数为 6个,封板率上 升至 77.2%,龙虎榜上榜家数降至 61 家。2）赚钱效应(上升): 行业交易集中度回升,本期行业换手率历史分位数处于 90%以上的 行业有 7个,环比增加5个,其中换手率分位数超 95%的行 ...

期货研究报告 宏观金融研究 [Tabl 股指周报 e_ReportType] 走势评级： 震荡 宋婧琪 从业资格证号：F03100886 投资咨询证号：Z0021165 联系电话：0571-28132632 邮箱：songjingqi@cindasc.com [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 6 月 30 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 股指核心逻辑梳理： 上周股指市场反弹，原因有二：1）伊以停火令全球风险偏好修复，海 内外股指市场普遍上涨；2）稳定比+阅兵等概念发酵，市场呈现权重搭 台、成长唱戏局面。结构方面，中小创板块领涨大盘，金融、成长风格表 现亮眼。四大宽基指数中，中证 1000（+4.62%）>中证 500（+3.98%）> 沪深 300（+1.95%）>上证 50（+1.27%）。美股方面，三大主要股指上周 集体收红，其中纳斯达克指数收涨 4.25%。 从申万一级行业分类表现看，上周各板块涨多跌少，其中计算机 （+7.70%）、国防军工（+6.90%）涨幅靠前，石油石化（-2.07%）、食 品饮料（-0.88%）落后。资金面来看，上周 A 股成交金 ...

证券研究报告 石化行业周报：地缘缓解，原油回落 行业投资评级：强大于市|维持 中邮证券研究所石化团队 分析师:张津圣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524040005 1 1 发布时间：2025-06-30 投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 ◼ 焦点：目前原油价格是石化板块关注的焦点，当下原油的价格主要取决于地缘计价，但地缘进展目前具 备不确定性。此外，成品油逐步步入消费旺季，成品油库存压力减弱对油价或有支撑。 ◼ 回顾：本周因原油价格下行，申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数相对表现最差，报收2202.18点， 较上周下跌2.07%。而中信三级行业指数表现来看，本周其他石化表现在石油石化中表现最佳，涨幅 1.49%。 ◼ 原油：本周价格下行。美原油库存下降，美成品油库存部分下滑。 ◼ 聚酯：涤纶长丝价格稳中带涨，价差走缩。江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数部分下滑，织机开工率下滑。 ◼ 烯烃：样本聚烯烃现货价格微涨，库存周内下行。 ◼ 标的： ➢ 上游：地缘若未来再次给出原油溢价，则利好上游标的。 ◼ 风险提示：油价剧烈波动、地缘风险、欧美通胀反复、欧美经济波动、行业政策变化、项目投产进度变 化、需求变化、其他等。 其 ...

| 综合 | | | | 中程退 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 银行 | -0.53 | 198.03 | -39.16 | 苏农银行 | -2.80 | | 石油石化 | -0.59 | 65.57 | -9.18 | 华锦股份 | -3.23 | | 非银金融 | -0.91 | 476.48 | -40.55 | 国盛金控 | -5.93 | （文章来源：证券时报网） 证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午收盘，今日沪指涨0.20%，A股成交量709.58亿股，成交金额9326.98亿 元，比上一个交易日减少7.85%。个股方面，3556只个股上涨，其中涨停70只，1586只个股下跌，其中 跌停5只。从申万行业来看，国防军工、传媒、通信等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为4.30%、2.41%、1.38%； 非银金融、石油石化、银行等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为0.91%、0.59%、0.53%。（数据宝） 今日各行业表现（截至上午收盘） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The chemical industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices. Key areas of focus for June include safety regulations, supply changes in the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations due to export dynamics, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials [4][11] - The report suggests a mid-to-long-term investment strategy focusing on high oil prices, robust performance in the oil and gas extraction sector, and the growth potential in new materials, particularly in electronic and renewable energy materials [4][11] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - As of June 29, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the SW basic chemicals sector is 22.34, at the 63.93 percentile historically, while the price-to-book ratio is 1.83, at the 14.09 percentile historically. For the oil and petrochemical sector, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio is 10.98, at the 15.69 percentile historically, and the price-to-book ratio is 1.19, at the 2.39 percentile historically [4][11] Price Changes - In the week of June 23-29, 38 chemical products saw price increases, 38 saw decreases, and 24 remained stable. The average price of WTI crude oil fell by 12.56% to $65.52 per barrel, while Brent crude fell by 12.00% to $67.77 per barrel. The average price of MDI decreased by 1.59% to 15,500 CNY/ton, while H acid increased by 5.39% to 44,000 CNY/ton [10][28][30] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong dividend policies and those in high-growth sectors such as oil and gas, electronic materials, and new energy materials. Specific companies highlighted for investment include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and several others in the electronic materials sector [4][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cease - fire of the Israel - Iran conflict led to a significant decline in international oil prices [1] - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the weekly data of the US crude oil and refined oil markets, including prices, inventories, production, demand, and import - export volumes [2] - It also presents the performance of the petroleum and petrochemical sector and related listed companies, along with their valuations [21][24] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - The data sources include Bloomberg, WIND, EIA, TSA, Baker Hughes, and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [8][9] 3.2 This Week's Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Market Review 3.2.1 Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Performance - Information on the sector's performance includes the sector's sub - industry price changes and the trend of the sector's sub - industries and the CSI 300 index [17] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [15][20] 3.2.2 Performance of Listed Companies in the Sector - The report shows the price changes of major companies in the upstream sector in different time periods (last week, last month, last three months, last year, and since the beginning of 2025) [22] - A valuation table for listed companies is provided, including share prices, total market values, net profits attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB ratios from 2024 to 2027 [24] 3.3 Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking 3.3.1 Crude Oil Price - Analyzes the prices and price differences of Brent, WTI, Urals, ESPO crude oils, and the relationships between crude oil prices and the US dollar index, copper prices [29][39][43] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [30][32][34] 3.3.2 Crude Oil Inventory - Examines the correlation between US commercial crude oil inventory and oil prices, and the relationship between the weekly destocking rate of US commercial crude oil and the price change of Brent crude oil [45][46] - Presents data on US total crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory [48][49][53] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [45][48][49] 3.3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Analyzes US crude oil production, the number of active crude oil rigs, and the number of active fracturing fleets, as well as their relationships with oil prices [57][58] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [57][59] 3.3.4 Crude Oil Demand - Analyzes US refinery crude oil processing volume, refinery operating rate, and Shandong refinery operating rate [62][64] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [63][64] 3.3.5 Crude Oil Import and Export - Analyzes US crude oil import volume, export volume, net import volume, and the import - export volume of crude oil and petroleum products [67][70] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [68][69][70] 3.4 Refined Oil Sector Data Tracking 3.4.1 Refined Oil Price - Analyzes the prices and price differences between crude oil and domestic/US/European/Singapore gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, as well as the wholesale - retail price differences of domestic gasoline and diesel [75][84][90] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [75][77][82] 3.4.2 Refined Oil Inventory - Presents data on US gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene inventories, and Singapore gasoline and diesel inventories [102][105][111] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [102][106][112] 3.4.3 Refined Oil Supply - Analyzes US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene production [117][118][120] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [119][120] 3.4.4 Refined Oil Demand - Analyzes US gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene consumption, and the number of airport security checks for passengers [122][125][129] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [123][126][130] 3.4.5 Refined Oil Import and Export - Analyzes the import - export situation and net export volume of US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene [132][135][136] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [133][136][137] 3.5 Oil Service Sector Data Tracking - Analyzes the average daily rates of self - elevating and semi - submersible drilling platforms in the industry [146][147][149] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [146][148][150]