Core Viewpoint - The Guangdong Provincial Ecological Environment Department announced a plan to establish a carbon footprint management system by 2027, aiming to evaluate the carbon footprint of approximately 200 products [1][2]. Group 1: Carbon Footprint Assessment - The carbon footprint refers to the total carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emissions directly or indirectly released during production and daily activities [2]. - The focus will be on assessing the carbon footprint of key products in Guangdong, including electronics, offshore wind equipment, new energy vehicles, home appliances, and textiles, which have significant production volumes and market shares [2]. - Priority will be given to products in industries with carbon footprint reporting requirements, such as steel, cement, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen, especially in light of the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism [2]. Group 2: Support for Low-Carbon Products - The plan aims to expand the application of product carbon footprints, integrating them into financial policies and encouraging financial institutions to consider carbon footprint disclosures in their evaluations [3]. - Government procurement will increasingly favor products with lower carbon footprints, with initiatives linked to major events like the National Games [3]. - The initiative promotes the establishment of zero-carbon parks and encourages green factories to conduct carbon footprint assessments [3]. Group 3: International Recognition Mechanism - The plan proposes exploring a mutual recognition mechanism for product carbon footprints within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, focusing on shared methodologies and standards [4]. - It emphasizes international cooperation, aiming to establish a carbon footprint alliance involving key enterprises and industry associations to collaborate on standards and databases [4].

铁矿石长期按美元计价，寡头供给叠加周期波动，买方常年处弱势。中国钢铁在高产状态下利润被压至 极低，2024年行业利润率不足1%的数据虽刺眼，却揭示了定价权的实质影响：上游在成本二十多美元/ 吨时能卖到百美元以上，价差并未转化为下游效率提升，而是沉淀为矿山超额收益。 话语权改变往往需要结构变量。集中采购把"多头买家"变成"一个声音"，中矿集团代表的份额接近 40%，谈判筹码集中化，报价体系自然更接近真实供需。资本纽带则把现金流绑定到人民币：贷款以矿 偿、股权持有、远期合约配合，货币与商品的耦合度提升，结算习惯就能迁移。备用产能是压舱石，几 内亚西芒杜的高品位储量与规划产能，等同于在桌边摆上一把"可执行的第二选项"。 九天之内，澳洲矿业巨头从强硬要价到接受人民币结算，铁矿石这个全球最"硬"的大宗品，突然改了规 矩。并非偶然的胜利，而是二十多年产业链整合、资本布局与备用产能逐步到位后的临门一脚。2025年 的节点意义远超一笔交易：定价权与结算权正在从美元单轨走向多元货币竞合，真正牵动的是钢铁、基 建、制造业的成本曲线与通胀预期。 价格谁说了算，决定产业利润往哪儿流 产业端的连锁反应更直观。钢厂原料端的定价锚更稳定， ...

| 报告主要观点 | | --- | 钢矿周度报告2025-1020 宏观冲击加剧，钢材弱势回调 正信期货产业研究中心 黑色产业组 研究员：谢晨 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询号：Z0001703 投资咨询号：Z0019319 Email：xiec@zxqh.net Email：yangh@zxqh.net 策略推荐 | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢 | 价格 | 现货延续下跌，盘面弱势运行 | | | 供给 | 高炉开工基本持稳，电炉产量连续回升 | | | 库存 | 建材去库加快，板材库存超预期累积 | | | 需求 | 建材需求环比回升，板材内需弱外需强 | | 材 | 利润 | 成材下跌，钢厂盈利下滑 | | | 基差 | 卷螺基差劈叉，关注热卷正套机会 | | | 总结 | 美威胁对华加征关税，贸易冲突继续升温；产业变化：近期高炉开工环比持平，铁水产量变化不大，电炉开工继续回升；需求方面，近期水泥、混凝 土发运开工速度加快，终端建筑需求回升；板材方面，热卷订单环比改善不明显，板类需求仍然偏弱；螺纹库存下滑，热卷库存继续增加，板类库存 压力回升明显。综合来 ...

本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 投资咨询证号：Z0022680 目录 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-10-20 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 | 01 | 02 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 焦煤焦炭 | | | | 关 注 下 周 国 内 大 会 ， 可 能 性 的 政 策 预 期 好 转 交 易 | 关 注 重 大 会 议 是 否 对 " | 反 内 卷 " | 有新提法 | 02 焦煤焦炭 03 铁矿石 下 周 重 要 会 议 召 开 ， 关 注 政 策 动 向 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 0 70 140 210 280 350 420 01/01 03/01 04/30 06/29 ...

最新统计数据显示，今年9月份，我国钢铁行业PPI，也就是工业品出厂价格指数持续回升向好。 今年9月份炼钢行业PPI指数为99.5%，相较上月同期提高3.9个百分点。将今年1至9月的PPI指数做成一 张曲线图后发现，自五月份起数据开始明显回升。而今年5月，正是行业首次开展整治"内卷式"竞争行 动。 负责人告诉记者，随着"手撕钢"的不断突破，现在的应用场景也在不断拓宽，开始融入到大家的日常生 活之中，无论是新能源汽车动力电池的软包材料，还是日常使用的3C数码产品的音量键、开关键都有 着"手撕钢"的身影，有了它不仅可以扩大电池容量，还可以延长许多设备的使用寿命。 近期，多家钢铁企业通过转型升级、走差异化道路等模式，维护产业链整体利益。 中国特钢企业协会执行会长 王文金：解决内卷的问题，就需要我们开辟一种新的发展道路，寻找一种 新的增长方式。特钢和其他钢的是不一样，大家静下心来，踏踏实实地做好基本功，苦练内功，品种结 构的调整，走专精特新的发展道路。 在近日举行的首届中国特钢及新材料专精特新峰会上，中国特钢协会发布《"专精特新"政策解读与特钢 新材料高质量发展》报告，进一步推动相关企业走专精特新差异化发展路线，向智能 ...

宏 2025 年 10 月 20 日 中国宏观周报（2025 年 10 月第 2 周） 部分区域出口运价回升 证券分析师 平安观点： 观 报 告 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 从高频数据观察，本周中下游生产较月初恢复，房地产销售跌幅收窄，假 期后线下出行热度有所回落，工业品期货价格调整。尽管中国出口集装箱 运价指数本周回落，但领先总体运价的上海和宁波出口运价进一步回升。 1. 工业：中下游生产恢复。1）原材料方面，本周日均铁水产量、水泥熟料产 能利用率边际回落，石油沥青开工率、浮法玻璃开工率以及钢材表观需求 提升。2）中下游方面，本周纺织聚酯开工率、织造业开工率边际回升；汽 车全钢胎开工率、半钢胎开工率均有反弹。 2. 地产：新房成交边际提升。1）销售方面，本周（截至 10 月 17 日）30 大 中城市新房销售面积同比-20.4%，增速较上周提升 10.8 个百分点；10 月 以来，30 大中城市新房销售面积同比-25.4%，较上月回落。2）价格方面， 截至 10 月 6 日，近四周二手房出售挂牌价指数环比-0.85%。 3. 内需：假期后线下出行热度回落，10 月以来汽车零售、快递揽收同比略有 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are expected to be bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; treasury bonds should be kept under observation [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range - bound trading; glass is advised to be observed [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs; aluminum is advised to lay out long positions on dips after pullbacks; nickel is suggested to be observed or shorted on highs; tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range - bound trading [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to oscillate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations; the 01 contract of soda ash should be traded with a short - selling mindset [1]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, and PTA are expected to oscillate; apples and jujubes are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs and eggs are recommended to be shorted on highs; corn is expected to have wide - range oscillations; soybean meal is expected to have range - bound oscillations; oils are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as macroeconomic data, industry events, supply - demand relationships, and international policies. For example, in the macro - financial sector, important meetings and potential Fed rate cuts support the stock market, while in the bond market, the outcome of Sino - US negotiations is crucial. In the black building materials sector, supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal, rebar, etc. Each sector's analysis is based on a combination of multiple factors to guide investment decisions [5][7][8]. Summaries by Categories Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: Last week, A - share broad - based indices all had negative weekly returns, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices having the largest declines. This week, the release of macro - economic data and important events will affect the market. With the approaching of important meetings and the potential Fed rate cuts, the market is expected to be supported. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Interest - rate bond yields declined across all tenors and varieties, and credit - bond yields also decreased. Overseas credit risks led to a decline in risk appetite, but the compound negative factors in the bond market have not been fundamentally resolved. It is advisable to take partial profits during risk - event shocks. The Sino - US negotiations at the end of the month will be the key to determining market risk appetite [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: During the National Day, supply was temporarily halted and is expected to gradually recover after the holiday. The supply recovery is relatively slow, and coking coal has long - position value. After the holiday, the first round of coke price increases started, supported by steel mills' demand [7][8]. - **Rebar**: Last Friday, rebar futures prices oscillated. The fundamental situation shows that the price is undervalued, and with the improvement of demand and the decline of production, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long around 3000 for the RB2601 contract [8]. - **Glass**: After the National Day, environmental protection and macro - policy expectations cooled down, and the market returned to the fundamental logic. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to observe and wait for a reversal to consider going long [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated greatly due to trade - related news. Although the price increase suppresses demand, the demand in the fourth quarter has room for improvement. The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs [11]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite in Guinea decreased, and the operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum changed. The demand in the peak season is weak, but the inventory of aluminum ingots is decreasing well. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips [13]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore is firm, but the supply may become looser. Refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron has limited upside. It is recommended to observe or short on highs [18]. - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production decreased in September, and the supply is expected to be more relaxed in the fourth quarter. The downstream consumption is weak, and it is recommended for range - bound trading [18]. - **Silver and Gold**: Due to the delay of the US PPI data and the risk of government shutdown, the safe - haven sentiment increased. With the expectation of rate cuts and concerns about the US economy, the prices of silver and gold are expected to be supported. It is recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after sufficient pullbacks [19][20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed in the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are new maintenance plans in the short - term supply, and the demand is increasing. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed for the pressure at 2450 [23][24]. - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the inventory is high, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate, and the range of 6400 - 6700 is to be observed [24][25]. - **Rubber**: Overseas weather improvement pressures the raw material price, but the reduction of rubber arrivals supports the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the support at 14500 is to be observed [26][27]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, and factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies should be focused on [28]. - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is increasing, and the inventory is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate [30]. - **Polyolefins**: The cost is affected by macro factors, the supply has an increasing expectation, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the L2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6800, and the PP2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6500 [30][31]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot trading is light, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply is in excess. The 01 contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the recent increase in seed cotton prices has led to a situation of grabbing cotton. However, due to the uncertainty between China and the US, the outlook is bearish [35]. - **PTA**: The international oil price is affected by geopolitical factors, the PTA spot price is low, and the supply - demand situation leads to a slowdown in inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 4350 - 4600 [34][35]. - **Apples**: The price of late - maturing Fuji apples shows a polarization, and good - quality apples are in high demand. The expected output this year is stable, but the quality has declined, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [36][37]. - **Jujubes**: The new - season jujubes in Xinjiang are about to be harvested, and the ordering progress in different regions varies. The market is in a state of waiting and seeing, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [37]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The supply in October is increasing, the weight of pigs is relatively high, and the entry of secondary fattening has weakened recently. In the medium to long term, the supply will remain high before the first half of next year. It is recommended to adjust short positions according to different contracts [39][40][41]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price is supported by improved storage conditions and increased procurement, but the post - holiday demand is weak. In the medium to long term, the supply growth rate is slowing down, but the capacity clearance still takes time. It is recommended to take partial profits on short positions and wait for spot guidance [42][43][44]. - **Corn**: Currently, it is the transition period between old and new crops. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the price is under seasonal pressure. In the medium to long term, the cost has support, and the demand is moderately weak. The 11 - contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is under pressure from harvest and slow exports, and the domestic soybean meal is affected by import expectations. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at 2900 for the M2601 contract [45][46]. - **Oils**: In the short term, the callback of oils is limited. The 01 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil should pay attention to the support levels of 8150 - 8200, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 respectively. It is recommended to go long after the callback [47][53].

10月17日，天工国际(00826)董事局主席朱小坤及高层技术团队一行拜访位于浙江宁波的吉利汽车 (00175)旗下极氪梅山工厂，得到了工厂领导的亲切接待。此次访问标志着两家分别在工模具钢材料领 域与整车制造领域位居全球前列的中国企业，正式启动了在"大型一体化压铸"这一革命性工艺领域的尖 端材料与技术的深度融合，旨在共同攻克行业制造瓶颈，引领中国汽车工业在关键制造技术上的自主突 破。 天工国际作为中国粉末钢领域的开拓者与权威，已构建了从研发、生产、销售到服务的全链条一体化能 力。公司深厚的技术积淀与产业前瞻性，在2024年获得国家级认可，作为牵头单位承担了国家重点研发 计划"新型压铸模具用钢粉末冶金与增材制造关键技术研发与应用"项目。该项目直指高端压铸模具在性 能与寿命上的行业痛点，旨在通过先进的粉末冶金与增材制造技术，开发出具备更优异性能的压铸模具 钢材料。 极氪梅山工厂作为其重要的先进制造基地，正大规模应用"大型一体化压铸"这一行业前沿工艺，用于生 产新能源汽车的大型底盘结构件、车身部件等。该工艺能极大减少零件数量、简化制造流程、减轻车身 重量并提升结构强度，但对压铸模具材料本身的性能——尤其是在极端工况 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index showed fluctuations with mixed performance among constituent stocks, highlighting the cyclical nature of certain industries and the significance of the PPI rebound in 2023 [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The index saw leading gains from stocks such as Bluestar Technology, Cangge Mining, and Jinfat Technology, while stocks like HeBang Bio and Salt Lake Co. experienced declines [1] - The analysis from招商证券 indicates that the PPI rebound is a key characteristic of "6 and 1" years, with strong performance in cyclical industries such as resources, finance, and real estate [1] Group 2: ETF and Sector Composition - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) closely tracks the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index, with a significant focus on the basic chemical industry at 61.93% and the petroleum and petrochemical industry at 30.84% [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include WanHua Chemical, China Petroleum, Salt Lake Co., Sinopec, CNOOC, Juhua Co., Cangge Mining, Jinfat Technology, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy, collectively accounting for 55.12% of the index [1]

据悉，沙特钢铁行业近年来面临诸多严峻挑战，主要包括钢筋产品产能过剩导致供过于求、高附加值产 品产能不足、以及进口产品所来的竞争压力加剧等。 智通财经10月20日讯（编辑 刘靖怡）沙特阿拉伯工业和矿产资源部长班达尔·阿尔霍拉耶夫（Bandar Alkhorayef）表示，沙特已完成一项关于应对国内钢铁市场供应短缺问题的最佳方案研究，或带来逾百 亿美元的投资机会。 霍拉耶夫在近日在利雅得举行的钢铁会议上指出，这些方案涉及生产7类钢铁产品，可能带来价值600亿 沙特里亚尔（约合160亿美元）的投资机遇。 例如，中国宝钢股份与沙特阿美、PIF已设立合资公司，在沙特建设全球首家绿色低碳全流程厚板工 厂。项目总投资约20亿美元，宝钢持股50%，沙特阿美和PIF各持股25%。该合资钢厂计划年产250万吨 直接还原铁、166.7万吨钢和150万吨高端厚板，主要服务于中东及北非的油气、造船、海工和建筑行 业。 霍拉耶夫强调，工业和矿产资源部目前正采取措施重组该国钢铁行业格局，以填补供应缺口、提升附加 值并保障供应链可持续性。 PIF还与全球钢铁巨头安赛乐米塔尔（ArcelorMittal）组建高端无缝钢管合资企业，中钢国际以E ...