Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish in the short - term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently, it is recommended to wait and see, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - **Methanol**: Affected by rumors of Iranian plant shutdowns and some warehouses not accepting Iranian ships' cargo, the 1 - 5 spread has strengthened from a low level, and the futures price has stabilized. However, the actual fundamentals are weak, with high domestic supply, weak demand, and high inventory. The cost - performance of short - selling is not high, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Urea**: After the holiday, the futures price has dropped significantly, and the spot price has dropped less. The supply pressure has increased, and the demand is weak. It is in a situation of low valuation and weak drive, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Rubber**: Affected by macro factors, the rubber price has broken down in the short - term. Referring to the April 2025 trend, there may be a 1 - 3 - day decline cycle. It is recommended to wait and see or operate short - term, and partially re - build the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [17]. - **PVC**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined to a low level, but the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export expectation is poor. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [21]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The spot and futures prices of styrene have declined, but the basis has strengthened. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory is decreasing, and the price may stop falling [24]. - **Polyethylene**: The futures price has declined. The cost - end support has weakened, but the inventory is high. The demand is expected to pick up seasonally, and the price may remain in a low - level shock [27]. - **Polypropylene**: The futures price has declined. The supply pressure is high, the demand has a seasonal rebound, and the inventory pressure is high. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [30]. - **PX**: The PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance. The PX inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue, and it is recommended to wait and see [33]. - **PTA**: The supply side has a high maintenance volume, and the de - stocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. The demand side has a high load, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It is recommended to wait and see [33]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The domestic and overseas device loads are high, the supply is high, the import volume is increasing, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to short on rallies [36]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 12.50 yuan/barrel, a 2.68% decline, at 453.70 yuan/barrel. Chinese crude oil weekly data showed a decrease in arrival inventory by 0.29 million barrels to 211.81 million barrels, a 0.14% decline; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 0.63 million barrels to 91.39 million barrels, a 0.69% increase; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.72 million barrels to 103.95 million barrels, a 0.70% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 1.35 million barrels to 195.34 million barrels, a 0.70% increase [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, waiting for OPEC's reaction to falling oil prices [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 55 yuan, in Inner Mongolia by 2.5 yuan, and in southern Shandong by 20 yuan. The 01 - contract price increased by 35 yuan to 2342 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 42. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 32 to - 12 [5]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see due to weak fundamentals but limited downside space [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The Shandong spot price decreased by 10 yuan, and the Henan spot price decreased by 10 yuan. The 01 - contract price increased by 13 yuan to 1610 yuan, and the basis was - 100. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 1 to - 68 [8]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see because of low valuation and weak drive [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Affected by the US tariff statement, global risk asset prices dropped. The tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday. As of October 9, 2025, the all - steel tire开工率 in Shandong was 46.38%, 6.08 percentage points lower than last week and 3.30 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the semi - steel tire开工率 was 50.87%, 9.10 percentage points lower than last week and 23.72 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The export of semi - steel tires slowed down. As of September 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.112 million tons, a 0.1 - million - ton decrease, a 1% decline [13][15]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or short - term operation, and partially re - build the hedge position [17]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 14 yuan to 4721 yuan. The Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4610 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan decrease. The basis was - 111 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan decrease. The 1 - 5 spread was - 318 yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai increased by 50 yuan to 2450 yuan/ton. The overall开工率 was 82.6%, a 1.2% increase. Factory inventory was 38.4 million tons, an 8.4 - million - ton increase, and social inventory was 103.6 million tons, a 5.5 - million - ton increase [19]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies due to strong supply and weak demand [21]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene was 5660 yuan/ton, unchanged. The styrene spot price decreased by 50 yuan to 6700 yuan/ton, and the active - contract closing price decreased by 53 yuan to 6690 yuan/ton. The basis was 10 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan increase. The BZN spread was 129.25 yuan/ton, a 3.5 - yuan increase. The upstream开工率 was 73.61%, a 0.41% increase. The Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.54 million tons to 19.65 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted开工率 was 38.54%, a 0.87% decrease [23]. - **Strategy**: The price may stop falling due to the decreasing port inventory and the upward - repair potential of the BZN spread [24]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price decreased by 54 yuan to 6983 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 50 yuan to 7040 yuan/ton. The basis was 57 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan increase. The upstream开工率 was 81.1%, a 0.28% decrease. The production enterprise inventory increased by 10.59 million tons to 48.86 million tons, and the trader inventory increased by 0.73 million tons to 5.40 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 44.36%, a 0.23% increase [26]. - **Strategy**: The price may remain in a low - level shock due to weak cost - end support and expected seasonal demand recovery [27]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price decreased by 29 yuan to 6693 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 20 yuan to 6730 yuan/ton. The basis was 37 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan increase. The upstream开工率 was 77.06%, a 1.46% decrease. The production enterprise inventory increased by 16.11 million tons to 68.14 million tons, the trader inventory increased by 6.11 million tons to 26.11 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.22 million tons to 6.87 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 51.76%, a 0.05% increase [29]. - **Strategy**: High supply pressure, seasonal demand rebound, and high inventory, with high warehouse receipts suppressing the market [30]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract decreased by 46 yuan to 6458 yuan. The PX CFR decreased by 7 dollars to 791 dollars. The basis was 16 yuan, a 15 - yuan decrease. The 11 - 1 spread was 28 yuan, a 4 - yuan increase. The Chinese PX load was 87.4%, a 1% increase, and the Asian load was 79.9%, a 1.9% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants restarted, and one Japanese plant was under maintenance. The PTA load was 74.4%, a 2.7% decrease. In early October, South Korea's PX exports to China were 12.7 million tons, a 2.1 - million - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of August was 3.918 million tons, a 0.019 - million - ton increase month - on - month [32]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see due to high load, expected inventory accumulation, and neutral - low valuation [33]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 24 yuan to 4510 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 50 yuan to 4440 yuan. The basis was - 71 yuan, a 6 - yuan decrease. The 1 - 5 spread was - 54 yuan, a 2 - yuan decrease. The PTA load was 74.4%, a 2.7% decrease. Some plants adjusted their loads. The downstream load was 91.5%, unchanged. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving loads were unchanged. The social inventory on October 10 was 2.16 million tons, a 0.053 - million - ton increase [33]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see because of high supply - side maintenance, limited processing fee space, and weak terminal signs [33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 11 yuan to 4111 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 1 yuan to 4207 yuan. The basis was 69 yuan, a 1 - yuan increase. The 1 - 5 spread was - 74 yuan, an 11 - yuan increase. The supply - side load was 75.1%, a 1.6% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had changes in operation. The downstream load was 91.5%, unchanged. The import arrival forecast was 8 million tons, and the East China departure was 0.9 million tons per day from October 11 - 12. The port inventory increased by 3.4 million tons to 54.1 million tons [35]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies due to high supply, increasing imports, and expected inventory accumulation [36].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The research report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - For methanol, with the return of concentrated domestic installations, high production profits, and increased imports, supply pressure is high. Demand is weak, and inventory pressure is large. However, short - selling is not cost - effective, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, after the holiday, the futures price dropped significantly, and the spot price dropped less. Supply pressure increased, demand was weak, and inventory rose. It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities when there are clear positive signals [6]. - For rubber, affected by the macro - environment, the rubber price broke down in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or operate short - term, and partially re - establish a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [13]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined to a low level, supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities in the medium term [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, although the spot and futures prices are falling, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, the port inventory may decline, and the price may stop falling [19]. - For polyethylene, cost support exists, and the downward space of PE valuation is limited. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, the price may fluctuate upward [22]. - For polypropylene, supply pressure remains, demand is seasonally rebounding from a low level, and inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [25]. - For PX, the load remains high, downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term overhauls, and the expected PX inventory accumulation cycle will continue. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. - For PTA, the supply - side overhaul volume is high, the de - stocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [31]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures fell 6.80 yuan/barrel, or 1.45%, to 461.90 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.27 million barrels, diesel inventory increased by 0.31 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.12 million barrels, naphtha inventory increased by 0.78 million barrels, and aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.39 million barrels. The total refined oil inventory increased by 0.32 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, and verify OPEC's export - price - support intention when oil prices fall [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang fell 3 yuan, in Inner Mongolia fell 5 yuan, and remained stable in southern Shandong. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 17 yuan to 2307 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 97. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 12 to - 44 [3]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the current short - selling cost - effectiveness is low [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong fell 20 yuan, and in Henan fell 30 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market fell 12 yuan to 1597 yuan, and the basis was - 57. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1 to - 69 [6]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or look for long - position opportunities when there are clear positive signals [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Affected by the US tariff statement, global risk asset prices dropped. Forecasted rainfall in Thailand and other places will increase in the next 7 - 14 days. Tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday. As of October 9, 2025, the all - steel tire开工率 in Shandong was 46.38%, and the semi - steel tire开工率 was 50.87%. The export of semi - steel tires slowed down. As of September 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 111.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons [11]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or operate short - term, and partially re - establish a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract fell 34 yuan to 4735 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4640 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 95. The 1 - 5 spread was - 318. The cost side remained stable, the overall开工率 was 82.6%, and the downstream开工率 was 47.8%. Factory inventory was 38.4 million tons, and social inventory was 103.6 million tons [13]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - selling opportunities in the medium term due to strong supply, weak demand, and poor export expectations [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene remained unchanged at 5770 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price fell 50 yuan/ton to 6750 yuan/ton, and the active - contract closing price fell 75 yuan/ton to 6743 yuan/ton. The basis was 7 yuan/ton, and the BZN spread was 125.75 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 was 73.61%, and the Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.44 million tons to 20.19 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted开工率 was 38.54% [18]. - **Strategy**: The styrene price may stop falling as the BZN spread has room for upward repair and the seasonal peak season is approaching [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price fell 40 yuan/ton to 7037 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton to 7100 yuan/ton. The basis was 63 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 was 83.6%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 7.56 million tons to 38.27 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.43 million tons to 4.67 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 45% [21]. - **Strategy**: The price may fluctuate upward as cost support exists and the seasonal peak season is approaching [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price fell 23 yuan/ton to 6722 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged at 6780 yuan/ton. The basis was 58 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 was 77.29%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.03 million tons to 52.03 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 0.11 million tons to 18.72 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.47 million tons to 6.65 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 52% [24]. - **Strategy**: There is no prominent short - term contradiction due to high supply pressure, seasonal demand rebound, and high inventory pressure [25]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol - **PX** - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract fell 82 yuan to 6504 yuan. The PX CFR fell 11 dollars to 798 dollars. The PX load in China was 87.4%, and in Asia was 79.9%. Some domestic and overseas installations restarted, and one Japanese installation was under maintenance. The PTA load was 74.4%. In September, South Korea's PX exports to China were 37.9 million tons [27]. - **Strategy**: The PX inventory accumulation cycle may continue, and it is recommended to wait and see [28]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell 50 yuan to 4534 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 10 yuan to 4490 yuan. The PTA load was 74.4%. The downstream load was 91.5%. The social inventory (excluding credit warrants) on September 26 was 210.7 million tons [28]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the supply - side overhaul volume is high and the processing fee space is limited [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 58 yuan to 4100 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 18 yuan to 4206 yuan. The supply - side load was 75.1%. The downstream load was 91.5%. The port inventory increased by 9.8 million tons to 50.7 million tons [30]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies due to high supply, increasing imports, and expected inventory accumulation [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous gains, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence recently, while sectors such as nuclear fusion, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips due to policy support for the capital market [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is likely to remain volatile under the intertwined bull - bear background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - With the weakening of the US dollar credit and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals. However, there is a significant risk of price correction in the short term [9]. - For most metals, factors such as supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and market sentiment affect their prices. For example, copper is supported by supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations; aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong; zinc is expected to be strong in the short term; and nickel may have a short - term downward exploration but is supported in the long term [12][14][16][18]. - For black building materials, although the current real - world demand for steel is weak, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [31][33][35]. - For energy and chemical products, rubber is recommended to go long on dips; for crude oil, wait and see in the short term; methanol and urea can be considered for short - term long positions after a decline; and for some chemical products like PVC and ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation is weak, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [53][55][56][58]. - For agricultural products, the prices of live pigs and eggs are expected to be weak in the short term; soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile; oils are expected to be strong; sugar is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cotton is likely to be weak in the short term [77][79][82][84][87][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have imposed export controls on certain items; some foreign entities have been included in the unreliable entity list; some securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratios of certain stocks; and the price of spot gold remains high, with some banks adjusting their related businesses [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the previous continuous rise, the high - flying sectors have shown divergence, and the short - term index fluctuations have increased. However, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed; the daily average sales revenue of the national consumption - related industries during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays has increased year - on - year; and export controls have been imposed on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 6120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 14513 billion yuan on the day [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The manufacturing PMI has rebounded, but the follow - up social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver have declined, while the prices of COMEX gold and silver have increased. The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data, and the Fed's meeting minutes show differences in the outlook for interest rates [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals, but pay attention to short - term price corrections [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market News**: After the National Day, the copper price continued to be strong. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased. The spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations support the copper price, but the short - term upward pace may slow down [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: On the first day after the National Day, non - ferrous metals generally strengthened. The LME aluminum price rose, and the domestic aluminum inventory increased. The market atmosphere was warm, but the trade situation was still volatile [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and strong [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and the LME zinc price fell. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the zinc export window opened [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai zinc is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and the LME lead price also rose. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai lead is expected to be in a wide - range low - level shock in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: The nickel price rose significantly. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was stable, and the MHP coefficient price increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term nickel price may decline, but it is supported in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips [18]. Tin - **Market News**: The tin price was strong. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand in the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors was still weak [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The carbonate lithium price was stable. The social inventory decreased, and a company obtained mining rights [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand mismatch has led to a decrease in inventory. Pay attention to the supply and demand situation and the market atmosphere [22]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose. The domestic and overseas prices changed, and the import window opened [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Wait and see for the macro - mood resonance [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material prices were stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel price is expected to be range - bound. Pay attention to the RKAB approval progress [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume increased, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the delivery pressure of the near - term contract is large, and the upside space is limited [28]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current real - world demand for steel is weak, but the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. Pay attention to policy signals [31]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron ore price rose. The overseas shipment decreased, and the domestic arrival increased. The steel mill's profit rate continued to decline [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Pay attention to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: The glass price rose, and the inventory increased. The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased [34][36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price fell slightly. The prices are in a shock range [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [39][40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: The industrial silicon price was stable, and the polysilicon price fell. The supply and demand of industrial silicon changed little, and the polysilicon inventory was limited [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and polysilicon may improve if the leading enterprises conduct maintenance [43][46]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market News**: The rubber price stabilized. The tire production rate decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The spot price changed [48][50][52]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The crude oil price fell, and the inventories of related products changed. The US EIA data showed inventory changes [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and verify the OPEC's export - price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider short - term long positions after a decline [56]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider long positions at a low price [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene price fell. The supply and demand changed, and the inventory increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the seasonal peak season [60]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC market is bearish in the medium term. Consider short positions [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene glycol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [65]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was affected by maintenance, and the demand was stable [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market News**: The para - xylene price rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was affected by PTA maintenance [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the terminal and PTA valuation [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The PE price fell, and the inventory decreased. The supply was limited, and the demand was expected to increase [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may rise in the long term [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The PP price fell, and the inventory was high. The supply was large, and the demand was weak [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and the inventory pressure is high [74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market News**: The live pig price continued to fall. The slaughtering and sales situation was not good [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The live pig price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short the near - term contract and conduct reverse hedging [77]. Eggs - **Market News**: The egg price generally fell. The supply was greater than the demand, and the market confidence was low [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for the bottom - building [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the import cost was affected by multiple factors [80][81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [82]. Oils - **Market News**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan. The domestic oil price rose, and the inventory may decrease [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to be strong. Go long on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: The sugar price rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production data was released, and the port waiting quantity increased [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the long term. Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: The cotton price rebounded slightly. The spot price fell, and the acquisition price was lower than last year [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is likely to be weak in the short term. There is cost support at the bottom [89].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish in the short - term. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the price trend [1][2] - For methanol, with装置集中回归, domestic supply is high, demand is weak, and port and enterprise inventories are high. However, short - selling has low cost - effectiveness, and there may be short - term long opportunities after a decline [4][5] - For urea, after the holiday, the futures price dropped significantly. Supply pressure has increased, demand is average, and market sentiment is weak. It's recommended to consider long positions at low prices [7][8][9] - For rubber, the rubber price has stabilized, and it's recommended to set a stop - loss and enter short - term long positions on pullbacks. A partial position in the RU2601 - RU2511 hedging strategy is also recommended [12][16] - For PVC, the supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. The short - term valuation has dropped to a low level, and it's advisable to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium - term [18][20] - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, the price may stop falling [22][23] - For polyethylene, the cost has some support, and the price may oscillate upward in the long - term [25][26] - For polypropylene, there is supply pressure, and the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [28][29] - For PX, the load remains high, and there is a lack of driving force. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [29][30] - For PTA, the supply has high unexpected maintenance, and the demand is expected to remain high. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [30][31] - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, and it's expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [32][33] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 9.50 yuan/barrel, a 1.98% decline, at 471.00 yuan/barrel. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.72 million barrels to 420.26 million barrels, a 0.89% increase; SPR increased by 0.29 million barrels to 406.99 million barrels, a 0.07% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.60 million barrels to 219.09 million barrels, a 0.73% decrease; diesel inventories decreased by 2.02 million barrels to 121.56 million barrels, a 1.63% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.54 million barrels to 21.17 million barrels, a 2.62% increase; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.07 million barrels to 44.27 million barrels, a 0.16% decrease [1] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but wait and see in the short - term [2] Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang dropped 29 yuan, in Inner Mongolia dropped 12 yuan, in southern Shandong dropped 10 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market dropped 38 yuan, closing at 2290 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 77. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 22, at - 56 [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is high, demand is weak, and inventories are high. Short - selling has low cost - effectiveness, and consider short - term long positions after a decline [5] Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong dropped 40 yuan, in Henan dropped 20 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market dropped 61 yuan, closing at 1609 yuan, with a basis of - 49. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 21, at - 68 [7] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply pressure has increased, demand is average, and market sentiment is weak. Consider long positions at low prices [8][9] Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price has stabilized. The futures price of natural rubber has different views from bulls and bears. Tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday. As of October 9, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong was 46.38%, 6.08 percentage points lower than last week and 3.30 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the operating load of semi - steel tires was 50.87%, 9.10 percentage points lower than last week and 23.72 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Semi - steel tire exports have slowed down. As of September 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 111.2 tons, a 1% decrease month - on - month; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 66.7 tons, unchanged; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 44.6 tons, a 0.3% decrease month - on - month. As of September 28, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 44.93 (- 0.44) tons [12][13][14] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Set a stop - loss and enter short - term long positions on pullbacks. Partially build a position in the RU2601 - RU2511 hedging strategy [16] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract dropped 70 yuan, closing at 4769 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4640 (- 60) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 129 (+ 10) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 323 (- 3) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai decreased to 2400 (- 150) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 730 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene was 810 (0) US dollars/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 81.4%, a 2.5% increase; among them, the calcium carbide method was 82.1%, a 2.8% increase; the ethylene method was 79.8%, a 1.6% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 47.8%, a 1.5% decrease. Factory inventory was 31.8 tons (+ 1.2), and social inventory was 98.2 tons (+ 1) [18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. Consider short - selling on rallies in the medium - term [20] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5795 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene dropped 125 yuan/ton to 6800 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the active contract dropped 17 yuan/ton to 6818 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 18 yuan/ton, a weakening of 108 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 126.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.5 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 564.05 yuan/ton, unchanged; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.2%, a 0.20% decrease; the inventory at Jiangsu ports increased by 0.44 tons to 20.19 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 45.44%, a 0.46% increase; the operating rate of PS was 62.50%, a 0.60% increase, the operating rate of EPS was 61.50%, a 0.48% increase, and the operating rate of ABS was 71.00%, a 1.00% increase [22] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, the price may stop falling [23] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract dropped 76 yuan/ton to 7077 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped 75 yuan/ton to 7100 yuan/ton, with a basis of 23 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 1 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.6%, a 2.80% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory decreased by 7.56 tons to 38.27 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.43 tons to 4.67 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 45%, a 0.87% increase. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 29 yuan/ton, a widening of 10 yuan/ton [25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost has some support, and the price may oscillate upward in the long - term [26] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract dropped 107 yuan/ton to 6745 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped 70 yuan/ton to 6725 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 20 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 37 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.29%, a 0.05% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.03 tons to 52.03 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 0.11 tons to 18.72 tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.47 tons to 6.65 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 52%, a 0.15% increase. The LL - PP spread was 332 yuan/ton, a widening of 31 yuan/ton [28] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply pressure is high, and the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [29] PX - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract increased by 16 yuan, closing at 6586 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 5 US dollars, closing at 809 US dollars. After conversion according to the central parity of the RMB, the basis was 44 yuan (- 12), and the 11 - 1 spread was 24 yuan (+ 12). In terms of PX load, the load in China was 86.4%, a 0.3% decrease; the Asian load was 78%, a 0.2% decrease. Tianjin Petrochemical was restarting, overseas plants in Malaysia and South Korea's Hanwha were restarting, and a 26 - ton plant of Japan's Eneos was under maintenance. The PTA load was 74.4%, a 2.7% decrease. In September, South Korea's PX exports to China were 37.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3 tons. The inventory at the end of August was 391.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.9 tons. In terms of valuation cost, PXN was 217 US dollars (+ 7), and the naphtha crack spread was 107 US dollars (- 11) [29] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX load remains high, and there is a lack of driving force. Wait and see in the short - term [30] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract dropped 10 yuan, closing at 4584 yuan. The spot price in East China dropped 35 yuan, closing at 4500 yuan, with a basis of - 63 (0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 48 (- 8). The PTA load was 74.4%, a 2.7% decrease. The downstream load was 91.7%, a 0.2% increase. Terminal draw - texturing load remained flat at 81%, and the weaving machine load decreased by 1% to 69%. In terms of inventory, on September 26, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 210.7 tons, a 1.1 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 38 yuan to 151 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market decreased by 13 yuan to 279 yuan [30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply has high unexpected maintenance, and the demand is expected to remain high. Wait and see in the short - term [31] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract dropped 49 yuan, closing at 4158 yuan. The spot price in East China dropped 51 yuan, closing at 4224 yuan, with a basis of 70 yuan (+ 2), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 77 yuan (- 2). The supply - side ethylene glycol load was 75.1%, a 1.6% increase; among them, the syngas method was 78.8%, a 4.5% increase; the ethylene - based load remained flat at 72.9%. The syngas - based plants such as Tianye were restarted, and Shenhua Yulin increased its load; in the petrochemical sector, Satellite Petrochemical was restarted, Yulong Petrochemical had a short - term shutdown, and Sanjiang increased its load. The downstream load was 91.7%, a 0.2% increase. The terminal draw - texturing load remained flat at 81%, and the weaving machine load decreased by 1% to 69%. The import arrival forecast was 23.4 tons, and the average daily departure from East China ports during the National Day was 0.6 tons. The port inventory was 50.7 tons, a 9.8 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the profit of naphtha - based production was - 723 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 639 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 560 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained flat at 810 US dollars, and the price of raw coal fines at Yulin pithead remained flat at 620 yuan [32] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is high, and it's expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. Wait and see in the short - term [33]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - OPEC shows a hesitant attitude with a slightly stronger willingness to support prices than to expand market share, and the slight increase plan will continue to suppress the upside space of oil prices. Crude oil is expected to remain volatile in the short term [1]. - The fundamentals of methanol have marginally improved, and the downside space is expected to be relatively limited. It is recommended to focus on short - long opportunities on dips [3]. - Urea is currently in a situation of low valuation and weak drivers. With no effective positive factors in reality, it is suggested to focus on going long on dips at low prices [5]. - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish, but it has broken down in the short term. It is recommended to set stop - losses and enter short - long positions opportunistically, and to partially re - establish the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [12]. - The fundamentals of PVC are poor, with strong domestic supply and weak demand, and the export outlook is weak. In the short term, the valuation has declined to a low level, and it is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium term [14]. - The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene are falling, and the basis is weakening. The BZN spread has a large upward repair space, and the price of styrene may stop falling when the downstream starts to rise and the port inventory is depleted [17]. - The price of polyethylene may oscillate upward in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to the Korean ethylene clearance policy. In the short term, it may gap down at the opening [20]. - For polypropylene, there is a large supply pressure, and the downstream start - up rate rebounds seasonally at a low level. There is no prominent short - term contradiction, and the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [23]. - For PX, the current load is high, and the expected inventory accumulation period continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. - For PTA, the supply - side unexpected maintenance volume is still high, and the inventory depletion pattern continues. However, the processing fee space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is high, and the port inventory is expected to be low in the short term but will turn to inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short on rallies under the weak outlook, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [29]. Summary by Industry Crude Oil - **Market Information**: As of October 8, 2025, the WTI crude oil main contract was quoted at $62.33/barrel, and the Brent crude oil main contract was quoted at $65.89/barrel. The US API data showed that the Cushing inventory decreased by 1.15 million barrels, and the overall inventory situation was still healthy. The OPEC meeting ended on October 5, with a final decision of a "principled low - speed production increase" of 137,000 barrels per day [1]. - **Strategy**: OPEC's hesitant attitude will suppress the upside space of oil prices, and crude oil is expected to remain volatile in the short term [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: During the holiday, overseas crude oil first fell and then rose, with a slight overall decline. Most other commodities rose more than they fell. Before the holiday, the price in Taicang fell by 11 yuan, the price in Inner Mongolia rose by 5 yuan, and the price in southern Shandong remained flat. The 01 contract of the futures price fell by 31 yuan to 2328 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 86 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 5 to - 34 [3]. - **Strategy**: The supply - side start - up has declined, and the enterprise profit is low. The domestic supply is expected to increase marginally. The demand - side port olefin plants have restarted and increased their loads, and the traditional demand has generally seen an increase in start - up, but the profit is still low. The overall demand has marginally improved. The inventory has decreased at a high level in ports and at a low level year - on - year in inland enterprises. It is recommended to focus on short - long opportunities on dips [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: During the holiday, the ex - factory price in Shandong remained stable, the ex - factory price in Henan fell by 20 yuan, and the market price generally continued the weak trend. Before the holiday, the 01 contract of the futures price rose by 7 yuan to 1670 yuan, with a basis of - 70 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread changed by + 4 to - 47 [5]. - **Strategy**: The futures price has stabilized at a low level. The domestic supply has returned, the start - up has increased significantly, and the enterprise profit is still low, with increased supply pressure. The demand for compound fertilizers has seen more shutdowns, and the agricultural demand is in the off - season, with general demand and weak market sentiment. The enterprise inventory continues to increase. It is recommended to focus on going long on dips at low prices [5]. Rubber - **Market Information**: During the holiday, commodities were generally positive. Japanese rubber and Singapore rubber rose slightly. In Thailand's spot market, the prices were mixed. The total inventory of natural rubber in China decreased marginally. The start - up load of all - steel tires in Shandong increased slightly, while that of semi - steel tires decreased slightly. The export orders of semi - steel tires slowed down, and the domestic sales market demand was weak [8][9][10]. - **Strategy**: The medium - term view is bullish, but it has broken down in the short term. It is recommended to set stop - losses and enter short - long positions opportunistically, and to partially re - establish the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract fell by 57 yuan to 4839 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4700 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 139 (+ 27) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 320 (- 10) yuan/ton. The cost side remained stable, the overall start - up rate of PVC increased, the downstream start - up rate decreased, and the factory and social inventories increased [12]. - **Strategy**: The enterprise comprehensive profit has continued to decline, the valuation pressure has further decreased, the maintenance volume is small, the production is at a historical high, and new devices will be tested in the short term. The domestic downstream start - up has declined, the domestic demand is weak, and the export outlook is poor. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side price of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5885 yuan/ton, the spot price of styrene fell by 50 yuan to 6850 yuan/ton, the closing price of the active contract of styrene fell by 7 yuan to 6932 yuan/ton, the basis weakened, the BZN spread decreased, the non - integrated device profit of EB increased, and the spread between EB contracts decreased. The upstream start - up rate decreased, the port inventory in Jiangsu increased, and the demand - side start - up rate of three S decreased overall, except for ABS [16]. - **Strategy**: The spot and futures prices are falling, and the basis is weakening. The BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The cost - side supply is still abundant, the supply - side start - up of styrene continues to rise, the port inventory has increased significantly, and the demand - side start - up rate has decreased. The price of styrene may stop falling when the downstream starts to rise and the port inventory is depleted [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of polyethylene rose by 18 yuan to 7181 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged at 7160 yuan/ton, the basis weakened by 18 yuan to - 17 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up decreased, the production enterprise and trader inventories decreased, the downstream average start - up rate increased slightly, and the LL1 - 5 spread expanded [19]. - **Strategy**: The price may gap down at the opening due to the large decline in crude oil prices during the holiday. The cost side still has support, the spot price has fallen, the PE valuation has limited downward space, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price. The supply is limited, the inventory has decreased at a high level, the seasonal peak season may come, and the price may oscillate upward in the long term [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of polypropylene rose by 3 yuan to 6903 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged at 6795 yuan/ton, the basis weakened by 3 yuan to - 102 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up increased, the production enterprise and trader inventories decreased, the port inventory increased, the downstream average start - up rate increased, and the LL - PP spread expanded [22]. - **Strategy**: There is a large supply pressure, the downstream start - up rate rebounds seasonally at a low level. There is no prominent short - term contradiction, and the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract fell by 100 yuan to 6570 yuan, the PX CFR rose by 3 dollars to 804 dollars, the basis increased by 32 yuan to 56 yuan, the 11 - 1 spread decreased by 16 yuan to 12 yuan. The PX load in China and Asia decreased slightly. Some domestic and overseas devices had maintenance or restart delays. The PTA load increased slightly, and the import volume of Korean PX to China decreased in mid - and early - September. The inventory increased in late August, and the PXN and naphtha crack spread increased [25]. - **Strategy**: The current PX load is high, the downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance in the short term, the overall load center is low, and the expected inventory accumulation period continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell by 58 yuan to 4594 yuan, the East China spot price fell by 55 yuan to 4535 yuan, the basis decreased by 8 yuan to - 63 yuan, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 6 yuan to - 40 yuan. The PTA load increased slightly, some devices had maintenance or restart, the downstream load increased, the terminal load increased, the social inventory increased slightly, and the spot and futures processing fees decreased [26]. - **Strategy**: The supply - side unexpected maintenance volume is still high, and the inventory depletion pattern continues. However, the processing fee space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell by 17 yuan to 4207 yuan, the East China spot price fell by 20 yuan to 4275 yuan, the basis increased by 1 yuan to 68 yuan, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 12 yuan to - 75 yuan. The supply - side load increased slightly, some domestic and overseas devices had maintenance, restart, or load adjustment. The downstream load increased, the import arrival forecast was 234,000 tons, the East China departure was 13,600 tons on September 29, the port inventory decreased by 58,000 tons to 409,000 tons. The naphtha - based and domestic ethylene - based profits were negative, and the coal - based profit was positive. The cost side remained stable [28]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is high, and the port inventory is expected to be low in the short term but will turn to inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short on rallies under the weak outlook, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [29].

Group 1: Macro Strategy (Gold) - The amount of gold held in ETFs has increased by 0.60%, or 6.01 tons, reaching a total of 1011.73 tons as of September 29 [11] - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown in the U.S. and ongoing political disagreements [12][14] - The fundamental reason for long-term bullish sentiment on gold is the deteriorating fiscal situation and high government debt burden [12][14] Group 2: Macro Strategy (Government Bonds) - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at stabilizing economic growth and promoting effective investment [15] - The bond market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but the probability of sustained adjustments is low, with recommendations to build long positions on dips [15] Group 3: Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's new crop planting rate has reached 3.2%, higher than the same period last year [20] - The U.S. soybean harvest rate is at 19%, in line with market expectations, with a good quality rating of 62% [21] - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, with a decrease in inventory at oil mills [22] Group 4: Black Metals (Rebar/Hot Rolled Coil) - The Ministry of Water Resources expects investment in water conservancy construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan to exceed 5.4 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 times that of the previous plan [25] - Steel prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high iron water production and inventory accumulation, with recommendations for light positions ahead of the holiday [26][27] Group 5: Nonferrous Metals (Zinc) - The nonferrous metals industry has released a stable growth work plan, emphasizing orderly project construction and resource development [40][44] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has decreased to 141,400 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [45] - The market sentiment for zinc is cautiously optimistic, with potential for short-term price stabilization [46] Group 6: Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The liquid alkali market in Shandong has seen a slight decline, with general market demand being weak ahead of the holiday [47] - The price of liquid alkali has decreased due to insufficient downstream purchasing activity [48] Group 7: Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market has shown a slight decline, with prices fluctuating between 0-10 yuan/ton [51] - The overall market remains weak, but low valuations may limit further price declines [52] Group 8: Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity has decreased to 35.27%, indicating a reduction in production activity [53] - Urea prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand [54]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, recommended to hold a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bullish on glass, recommended to buy on dips [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Neutral on copper, recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday; bullish on aluminum, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on nickel, recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; neutral on tin, recommended for range trading; neutral on gold and silver, recommended for range trading [1][10][11][18][19] - **Energy and chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefin, recommended for range trading; recommended for shorting 01 contract and longing 05 contract in soda ash [1][20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31][32] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, recommended for range trading; neutral on PTA, recommended for narrow - range trading; bullish on apples, recommended for range - bound and upward trading; bearish on jujubes, recommended for range - bound and downward trading [1][33][34][35] - **Agriculture and livestock**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for range trading; neutral on soybean meal, recommended for weak - range trading; bullish on oils, recommended for bottom - building and slight rebound trading [1][37][39][40][42][43] Core Views - Affected by the weakening of the external market and the pre - holiday effect, the A - share market is cautious, with significant structural differentiation. Stock indices are expected to oscillate in the short term and are bullish in the long term. Treasury bonds are recommended to be observed due to potential long - term downward pressure [5] - The black building materials market is mixed. The coal market is active, while rebar is affected by weak industry and strong macro factors. Glass is expected to be supported by demand in October and is recommended to be bought on dips [7][8] - Non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors such as supply disruptions and macro policies. Copper is expected to be high - range volatile, aluminum is recommended to be bought on dips, nickel is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range trading [10][11][17][18][19] - In the energy and chemical sector, most products are expected to oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost fluctuations, and policy uncertainties. Soda ash is recommended for a specific arbitrage strategy [20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31][32] - The cotton textile industry chain shows different trends. Cotton and cotton yarn are affected by supply - demand changes, PTA is affected by cost and supply - demand games, apples are expected to be strong, and jujubes are expected to be weak [33][34][35] - In the agriculture and livestock sector, pigs and eggs are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances. Corn is expected to oscillate, soybean meal is expected to be weak, and oils are expected to rebound slightly [37][39][40][42][43] Summaries by Categories Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: In the short term, the A - share market is affected by external and pre - holiday factors, with active large - tech sectors and weak small - cap stocks. In the long term, it is bullish, and buying on dips is recommended [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond market rebounded on Friday, the long - term downward pressure remains. It is recommended to observe and pay attention to the end - of - month data [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market is active due to factors such as production reduction and price increases. It is recommended for range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price dropped last Friday. It is currently undervalued, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to observe or conduct short - term trading before the holiday [7] - **Glass**: The spot price increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to be supported by demand in October. Buying on dips is recommended [8] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the mine accident in Grasberg, the copper price is expected to be high - range volatile. It is recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The alumina price is under pressure, while the electrolytic aluminum demand is in the peak season. Buying on dips is recommended [12][13] - **Nickel**: The nickel supply is in an oversupply situation in the long term. Shorting on rallies is recommended [17] - **Tin**: The tin supply is tight, and the downstream consumption is recovering. Range trading is recommended [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the US economic data and Fed policy expectations, range trading is recommended [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the 01 contract is recommended to focus on the 4850 - 5050 range [20][21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply and demand are in a balanced state. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is recommended to focus on the 2450 - 2650 range [22][23] - **Styrene**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weak - range volatile, and the 6700 - 7100 range is recommended [25] - **Rubber**: The downstream tire factory's pre - holiday replenishment is completed. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 15500 level is recommended as the support [25] - **Urea**: The supply increases, and the demand is scattered. It is recommended to focus on the 01 contract's 1600 - 1630 support [26][27] - **Methanol**: The supply recovers, and the demand increases. It is expected to be strong - range volatile, and the 2330 - 2450 range is recommended [27] - **Polyolefin**: The demand recovers, and the supply increases slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the range, and the LL and PP contracts are recommended to focus on the 7200 - 7500 and 6900 - 7200 ranges respectively [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract due to the expected supply increase [31][32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply and demand are adjusted, and the future price may face pressure. Range trading is recommended [33] - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is expected to be narrow - range volatile [33][34] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm, and it is expected to be strong - range volatile [34] - **Jujubes**: The market is light, and it is expected to rebound in a range [35] Agriculture and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply is large, and the price is under pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 05 - 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: The short - term price is under pressure, and shorting on rallies is recommended. The 12 and 01 contracts are recommended to be observed [39] - **Corn**: The new crop supply eases the tight supply situation. A short - selling strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [40][41] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weak - range volatile. Holding long positions on dips is recommended [42] - **Oils**: The palm oil and soybean oil fundamentals have some support, and the rapeseed oil supply has a gap. It is expected to rebound slightly, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunities [43][44][45][46][47][48]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as Fed rate - cut expectations, Sino - US trade negotiations, and geopolitical issues. Short - term oil prices are expected to be volatile [1][2]. - The asphalt market has a complex supply - demand situation. With increasing supply and weak pre - holiday demand, the spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [3][4]. - The fuel oil market has different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils. High - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure from high inventory, while low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and weak demand [5][6]. - The PX & PTA market has a tight balance in the short - term, but the supply is expected to increase in the medium - term, and the price is affected by macro and cost factors [8][9]. - The ethylene glycol market has an expected increase in supply and a weakening demand, with a risk of inventory accumulation [11][12]. - The short - fiber market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term due to rising raw material prices, but the processing fee is expected to remain low [13][14]. - The PR (bottle - chip) market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term due to rising raw material prices, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [14][15]. - The pure benzene and styrene market has different supply - demand situations. Pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be volatile; styrene supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure [16][17]. - The propylene market has an increasing supply and weak downstream demand, and the price is recommended to be short - sold on rebounds [19][20]. - The plastic and PP market has a short - term price volatility due to rising oil prices and a medium - term bearish outlook [21][23]. - The PVC market has a large inventory pressure, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak, with a bearish outlook in the short - and medium - term [23][26]. - The caustic soda market is in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term is weak, and the medium - term is expected to be long after a sufficient correction [28][29]. - The soda ash market is expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [31][32]. - The glass market is expected to be volatile before the holiday, affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand [34][36]. - The methanol market has an increasing supply and a high port inventory, and the price rebound is limited [39]. - The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and export [40][41]. - The log market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the price can be slightly long - tried near the integer level [43]. - The pulp market has a high port inventory and weak demand, and the price can be slightly long - bought at the low point of last week [44][46]. - The offset printing paper market has a slight increase in supply and weak demand, and the price of the 01 contract can be short - sold near the lower limit of the spot price [47][48]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber market has different trends for different types of rubber, and the trading strategies vary for different contracts [49][51]. - The butadiene rubber market has a decreasing capacity utilization rate, and the price of the 11 - contract can be short - tried [52][54]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2511 contract settled at $64.98, down $0.01 (- 0.02%); Brent2511 contract settled at $69.42, up $0.11 (+ 0.16%); SC2511 contract rose 6.6 to 488.9 yuan/barrel, and rose 2.2 to 491.1 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: A new Fed governor called for significant rate cuts, but other colleagues advocated caution. US initial jobless claims decreased, and investors thought it did not support further rate cuts. Sino - US trade negotiations made progress, and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affected oil prices [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Sino - US trade negotiations improved the macro - sentiment, and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation increased the risk premium. The short - term oil price is expected to be volatile, with the Brent main contract operating in the range of $67.5 - 69 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, with the Brent main contract operating in the range of $67.5 - 69 per barrel; gasoline and diesel crack spreads are weak; options are on hold [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2511 closed at 3440 points (+ 0.41%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3386 points (+ 0.39%) at night. The spot price in Shandong, East China, and South China remained stable [3]. - **Related News**: In the Shandong market, rising crude oil prices and reduced rainfall increased demand, but the supply - demand pattern did not change significantly. In the Yangtze River Delta market, pre - holiday project rush increased demand, but low - price resources from some merchants affected the price. In the South China market, typhoon and rainfall affected sales, but the expected reduction in production in October supported the price [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic asphalt plant operating rate increased, the refinery inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The high - level oil price supported the cost, but the pre - holiday demand was weak. The short - term spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be range - bound; the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to be weak; sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][5]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU01 contract closed at 2893 (+ 0.35%) at night, and LU11 closed at 3455 (+ 0.58%) at night. The Singapore paper - cargo market had different month - spreads for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [5]. - **Related News**: The ARA fuel oil inventory decreased, and the Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased. The high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil spot windows had no or few transactions [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: Russian energy facilities were attacked, but the refineries and transportation facilities recovered. The high - sulfur fuel oil supply increased, and the demand decreased. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply increased, and the demand had no specific driver [6][7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: FU main contract is expected to be strongly volatile, and LU near - month contract is expected to be range - bound with crude oil; consider widening the LU01 - FU01 spread; sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 [8]. PX & PTA - **Market Review**: PX2511 main contract closed at 6674 (+ 72/+ 1.09%) during the day and 6636 (- 38/- 0.57%) at night; TA601 main contract closed at 4678 (+ 52/+ 1.12%) during the day and 4652 (- 26/- 0.56%) at night. The PX spot price increased, and the PTA basis was stable [8]. - **Related News**: The PTA and polyester operating rates changed. The PTA production and sales increased [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PX supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable. The PTA supply is expected to increase slightly in October, and the demand is expected to be stable. The price is affected by macro and cost factors [9][10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be strong due to rising oil prices and market sentiment, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [10]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2601 main contract closed at 4246 (+ 12/+ 0.28%) and 4224 (- 22/- 0.52%) at night. The spot basis was stable [10][11]. - **Related News**: The ethylene glycol production and sales changed, and the operating rate decreased [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase due to planned maintenance and new device commissioning, and the demand is expected to be weak. The market is expected to be loose, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [12]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be weak and volatile; arbitrage is on hold; sell call options [12]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2511 main contract closed at 6372 (+ 76/+ 1.21%) during the day and 6326 (- 46/- 0.72%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [12][13]. - **Related News**: The polyester production and sales increased, and the terminal operating rate increased [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber processing fee fluctuated narrowly. The raw material price increase and terminal operating rate increase promoted inventory reduction, but the terminal cash flow was in deficit, and the processing fee was expected to remain low [14]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [14]. PR (Bottle - Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2511 main contract closed at 5840 (+ 56/+ 0.97%) and 5808 (- 32/- 0.55%) at night. The spot market had a good trading atmosphere [14]. - **Related News**: The bottle - chip factory export price increased slightly [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream terminal bid for next - year's first - quarter orders, a bottle - chip device was under maintenance, and the operating rate decreased. The inventory was expected to decrease, and the processing fee was expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 5922 (+ 15/+ 0.25%) during the day and 5894 (- 28/- 0.47%) at night; EB2511 main contract closed at 6958 (+ 30/+ 0.43%) during the day and 6927 (- 31/- 0.45%) at night. The pure benzene spot price increased slightly, and the styrene port inventory increased [16]. - **Related News**: The pure benzene and styrene production and sales and operating rates changed [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: The pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable. The styrene supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decrease. The price is affected by inventory and downstream demand [17][18]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be strong due to geopolitical and macro factors, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; long pure benzene and short styrene in arbitrage; options are on hold [18]. Propylene - **Market Review**: PL2601 main contract closed at 6372 (+ 15/+ 0.24%) and 6371 (- 1/- 0.02%) at night. The spot price in different regions remained stable [18][19]. - **Related News**: The domestic propylene operating rate increased [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: The propane market entered the peak season, and the demand for PDH devices was expected to increase. The propylene supply increased due to device restart, and the market was loose. The downstream product profit was poor, and the load increase was limited [19][20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is recommended to short - sell on rebounds; arbitrage is on hold; sell put options [21]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The LLDPE market price partially weakened, and the PP spot price in different regions was stable or slightly changed. The linear futures increased slightly [21]. - **Related News**: The PE and PP maintenance ratios decreased, and the operating rates changed. The downstream industry operating rates increased slightly [21][22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream demand was in the peak season, and the pre - holiday inventory was concerned. The supply was expected to increase due to reduced maintenance and new device commissioning. The near - term cost increase supported the price, and the medium - term price was recommended to be short - sold on highs [23]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be volatile, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The PVC spot price was strong and volatile, and the futures price was also strong and volatile. The trading was light [23]. - **Related News**: The PVC production enterprise capacity utilization rate increased, the预售 volume increased slightly, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory increased [24][25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PVC inventory was at a high level, and the supply was expected to increase due to new device commissioning. The demand was weak due to the real - estate market weakness, and the export was expected to decrease. The short - and medium - term outlook was bearish [26]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is bearish in the short - and medium - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [26]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The caustic soda spot price in different regions remained stable [26]. - **Related News**: The caustic soda production enterprise capacity utilization rate increased, and the inventory increased [28]. - **Logic Analysis**: The caustic soda market was in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term was affected by inventory and price reduction, and the medium - term was expected to be long after a sufficient correction [28]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term is weak, and medium - term is long after a sufficient correction; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 01 contract closed at 1315 yuan (+ 8/+ 0.6%) during the day and 1306 yuan (- 9/- 0.7%) at night. The spot price in different regions changed slightly [29][31]. - **Related News**: The soda ash production, inventory, and profit changed. The market was weak and stable [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash supply was at a high level, and the demand was stable. The price was affected by inventory, downstream demand, and policy. The price was expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday [32]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday; long glass and short soda ash in short - term arbitrage; options are on hold [32][34]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 01 contract closed at 1270 yuan (+ 33/+ 2.67%) and 1264 yuan (- 6/- 0.47%) at night. The spot price in different regions increased [34][35]. - **Related News**: The glass production, inventory, and profit changed. The market trading atmosphere was good [34][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass production increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The price was affected by production, inventory, and demand. The price was expected to be volatile before the holiday [36]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile before the holiday; long glass and short soda ash in short - term arbitrage; options are on hold [36][37]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2341 (- 16/- 0.68%). The spot price in different regions was stable [38]. - **Related News**: The methanol production increased, and the device capacity utilization rate increased [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international device operating rate decreased, and the import recovered. The domestic supply was loose due to the end of autumn maintenance. The port inventory increased rapidly. The price rebound was limited due to supply and inventory [39]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: stop loss on short positions; arbitrage is on hold; sell call options [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures closed at 1674 (+ 1/+ 0.06%). The spot price was stable with small changes [40]. - **Related News**: The urea production and operating rate changed [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The urea supply was loose, and the demand was weak. The export had a certain

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil as the current oil price is undervalued, the fundamentals support the price, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, the overall fundamentals are improving marginally, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5] - Regarding urea, it is currently in a state of low valuation and weak drivers. It is suggested to pay attention to long positions on dips [8] - For rubber, maintain a medium - term bullish view. Temporarily wait and look for opportunities after the holiday. Those holding long positions during the holiday can consider a hedging strategy [12] - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies [15] - For styrene, the price may stop falling as the seasonal peak season drives downstream operations and port inventories decline [19] - For polyethylene, the price may fluctuate upward as the long - term contradiction shifts and the seasonal peak season approaches [21] - For polypropylene, there is high inventory pressure in the short - term, and there is no prominent contradiction [24] - For PX, the inventory accumulation cycle may continue, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [28] - For PTA, the supply has unexpected maintenance, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [30] - For ethylene glycol, it is recommended to short on rallies in the weak outlook, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [33] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil Market Information - INE main crude oil futures rose 8.30 yuan/barrel, or 1.72%, to 490.60 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 37.00 yuan/ton, or 1.30%, to 2887.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 53.00 yuan/ton, or 1.56%, to 3450.00 yuan/ton [1] - US EIA weekly data showed changes in various oil inventories, including a 0.61 - million - barrel decrease in commercial crude oil inventories to 414.75 million barrels [1] Strategy Viewpoint - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil as the current oil price is undervalued, the fundamentals support the price, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] Methanol Market Information - The price in Taicang dropped 3 yuan/ton, while Inner Mongolia and southern Shandong remained flat. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 5 yuan/ton to 2356 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 104 [4] - The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 4 to - 32, showing a low - level oscillation [4] Strategy Viewpoint - The supply - side production declined, and enterprise profits decreased. The domestic supply is expected to increase marginally. The demand - side port olefin plants restarted and the load increased. The overall demand improved marginally. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5] Urea Market Information - Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable, with a slight decline in some areas. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 1 yuan/ton to 1674 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 73 [7] - The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 2 to - 53 [7] Strategy Viewpoint - The futures price is at the lower edge of the weekly - level trend line. The domestic supply has recovered, and the demand is average. The market sentiment is weak, and enterprise inventories are rising. It is currently in a state of low valuation and weak drivers. It is suggested to pay attention to long positions on dips [8] Rubber Market Information - The rubber price was weak. The market expected a 62,000 - ton state reserve release. From September 16, 2025, the RU position structure changed. A super typhoon may have a positive impact, and the EU postponed the implementation of anti - deforestation laws [10] - As of September 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tire enterprises in Shandong was 64.96%, and that of semi - steel tire enterprises was 74.58%. As of September 14, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1235,000 tons [11] Strategy Viewpoint - Maintain a medium - term bullish view. Temporarily wait and look for opportunities after the holiday. Those holding long positions during the holiday can consider a hedging strategy [12] PVC Market Information - The PVC01 contract rose 28 yuan to 4919 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 179 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 301 yuan/ton [14] - The overall operating rate of PVC was 77%, a 3% decrease. The downstream operating rate was 49.2%, a 1.7% increase. Factory inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons, and social inventory increased by 1.9 million tons [14] Strategy Viewpoint - The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and the export outlook is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [15] Styrene Market Information - The cost - side pure benzene price remained unchanged at 5885 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price rose 50 yuan/ton to 6950 yuan/ton, and the active contract closed at 6958 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [18] - The upstream operating rate was 73.4%, a 1.6% decrease. Jiangsu port inventory increased by 2.75 million tons to 18.65 million tons. The downstream "Three S" weighted operating rate was 45.44%, a 0.46% increase [18] Strategy Viewpoint - The price may stop falling as the seasonal peak season drives downstream operations and port inventories decline [19] Polyethylene Market Information - The main contract closed at 7169 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7175 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 80.73%, a 0.74% decrease [20] - The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.20 million tons to 45.83 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.96 million tons to 5.10 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 43%, a 0.08% increase [20] Strategy Viewpoint - The price may fluctuate upward as the long - term contradiction shifts and the seasonal peak season approaches [21] Polypropylene Market Information - The main contract closed at 6898 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6795 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 77.05%, a 2.32% increase [23] - The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.03 million tons to 52.03 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 0.11 million tons to 18.72 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.47 million tons to 6.65 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 51.45%, a 0.59% increase [23] Strategy Viewpoint - There is high inventory pressure in the short - term, and there is no prominent contradiction [24] PX Market Information - The PX11 contract rose 72 yuan to 6602 yuan. The PX CFR rose 9 dollars to 812 dollars. The Chinese PX load was 86.3%, a 1.5% decrease, and the Asian load was 78.2%, a 0.8% decrease [26] - PTA load was 75.9%, a 0.9% decrease. In September, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 5.6 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of July decreased by 24 million tons month - on - month [27] Strategy Viewpoint - The inventory accumulation cycle may continue, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [28] PTA Market Information - The PTA01 contract rose 70 yuan to 4626 yuan. The East China spot price rose 55 yuan to 4525 yuan. The PTA load was 75.9%, a 0.9% decrease [29] - The downstream load was 91.4%, a 0.2% decrease. The social inventory on September 19 increased by 1.1 million tons [29] Strategy Viewpoint - The supply has unexpected maintenance, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [30] Ethylene Glycol Market Information - The EG01 contract rose 22 yuan to 4234 yuan. The East China spot price rose 4 yuan to 4301 yuan. The supply - side operating rate was 73.8%, a 1.1% decrease [32] - The downstream load was 91.4%, a 0.2% decrease. The port inventory increased by 0.2 million tons to 46.7 million tons [32] Strategy Viewpoint - It is recommended to short on rallies in the weak outlook, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil from last week, as the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental situation will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [1]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are mixed. High inventory still suppresses the price, and the methanol trend is greatly affected by the overall commodity sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Urea**: The current valuation is relatively low, but there is a lack of driving factors in reality. It is expected that there will be no large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [6]. - **Rubber**: Adopt a long - term bullish view. In the short - term, it has stabilized, with a neutral or slightly bullish view. Consider short - term long positions on pullbacks and enter and exit quickly [14]. - **PVC**: The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak, and the export outlook is weakening. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies [17]. - **Styrene**: In the long - term, the BZN spread may recover. When the inventory drawdown inflection point appears, the styrene price may rebound. It is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [21]. - **Polyethylene**: The price may fluctuate upwards in the long - term. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. - **Polypropylene**: There is high inventory pressure in the short - term, and the short - term situation lacks prominent contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. - **PX**: The PX inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue, and there is currently a lack of driving factors. It is recommended to wait and see [31]. - **PTA**: The supply side has many unexpected short - term maintenance, and the overall load center is low. It is recommended to wait and see [34]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: In the fourth quarter, it will turn to inventory accumulation. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, but beware of the risk that the weak expectation is not realized [37]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE main crude oil futures rose 7.00 yuan/barrel, or 1.47%, to 482.30 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also showed gains. Singapore ESG oil product weekly data showed changes in gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil inventories [8]. - **Strategy Views**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC has increased production in a small amount, it is believed that this is a stress test on the market. The current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamentals support the price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The price in Taicang rose 18 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia rose 5 yuan/ton. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 8 yuan/ton to 2351 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 93. The 1 - 5 spread rose 4 to - 28 [2]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - side start - up rate has declined, and the demand - side port olefin plants have restarted. The overall demand has improved marginally. However, the high inventory still suppresses the price, and the methanol trend is greatly affected by the overall commodity sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, while in Henan it fell 10 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market rose to 1673 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 73. The 1 - 5 spread rose 4 to - 51 [5]. - **Strategy Views**: The futures price has fallen with increasing positions. The domestic supply has recovered, and the demand is weak. The current valuation is relatively low, but there is a lack of driving factors. It is expected that there will be no large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Affected by Super Typhoon "Hagasa", there will be heavy rainfall in some Southeast Asian regions, which is clearly bullish. The EU has postponed the implementation of its anti - deforestation law, with a marginal reduction in bullish factors. As of September 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.96%, and that of semi - steel tires was 74.58%. As of September 14, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 123.5 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons from the previous period [11][13]. - **Strategy Views**: Adopt a long - term bullish view. In the short - term, it has stabilized, with a neutral or slightly bullish view. Consider short - term long positions on pullbacks and enter and exit quickly [14]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 28 yuan to 4919 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 179 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 301 yuan/ton. The overall start - up rate of PVC was 77%, a decrease of 3% from the previous period. The demand - side downstream start - up rate was 49.2%, an increase of 1.7% from the previous period [16]. - **Strategy Views**: The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak, and the export outlook is weakening. Even though the downstream has improved recently, it is still difficult to change the pattern of oversupply. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies [17]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of styrene remained unchanged, while the futures price rose. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward repair space. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit decreased, but the styrene start - up rate continued to rise. The port inventory continued to decline significantly, and the demand - side overall start - up rate of three S products fluctuated upwards [20]. - **Strategy Views**: In the long - term, the BZN spread may recover. When the inventory drawdown inflection point appears, the styrene price may rebound. It is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closing price was 7142 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7160 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 44 yuan/ton, a weakening of 34 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 82.28%, an increase of 0.71% from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory and trader inventory both increased slightly [23]. - **Strategy Views**: The market is looking forward to favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance at the end of the third quarter, and there is still support on the cost side. The PE valuation has limited downward space, but the large number of warehouse receipts at the same period in history suppresses the futures price. The overall inventory is at a high level and is being reduced, and the seasonal peak season may be approaching. The price may fluctuate upwards in the long - term [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closing price was 6877 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6870 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 23 yuan/ton, a weakening of 27 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate remained unchanged at 75.43%. The production enterprise inventory decreased, the trader inventory decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [26]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - side still has 145 million tons of planned production capacity, with relatively high pressure. The demand - side downstream start - up rate has rebounded seasonally. Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions. The large number of warehouse receipts at the same period in history suppresses the futures price [27]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 72 yuan to 6602 yuan. The PX CFR rose 9 dollars to 812 dollars. The PX load in China was 86.3%, a decrease of 1.5% from the previous period, and the Asian load was 78.2%, a decrease of 0.8% from the previous period. Some PX plants had maintenance or load adjustments. The PTA load was 75.9%, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous period [30]. - **Strategy Views**: The PX load remains at a high level, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, with a relatively low overall load center. The PTA new plant commissioning is expected to be postponed, and the PX maintenance is also postponed. The PX inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue, and there is currently a lack of driving factors. The PXN is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [31]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 70 yuan to 4626 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 55 yuan to 4525 yuan. The PTA load was 75.9%, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous period. Some PTA plants had maintenance, restart, or load reduction. The downstream load was 91.4%, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous period [33]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - side has many unexpected short - term maintenance, and the de - stocking pattern continues. However, due to the weak long - term outlook, the processing fee space is limited. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory and profit pressure are low, but the terminal performance is weak, putting pressure on raw materials. It is recommended to wait and see [34]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract rose 22 yuan to 4234 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 4 yuan to 4301 yuan. The supply - side domestic and overseas plant loads are at a high level, and the domestic supply is relatively high. The port inventory increased by 0.2 tons to 46.7 tons [36]. - **Strategy Views**: In the short - term, the port inventory is expected to be low due to less port arrivals. In the medium - term, with the concentrated arrival of imports and the expected high domestic load, combined with the gradual commissioning of new plants, the inventory will turn to accumulation in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is relatively high year - on - year. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the weak outlook, but beware of the risk that the weak expectation is not realized [37].