1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, OPEC's production increase has been fulfilled as scheduled. It is recommended that investors gradually take profits on dips, and it is not advisable to chase short positions excessively in the short term. In the current situation of low static inventory, going long on the positive spread on dips is still a good position [1]. - The domestic methanol supply is expected to continue to rise, imports will gradually increase, and traditional demand will gradually weaken. The supply - demand pattern will gradually weaken, and prices still face downward pressure. It is recommended to focus on short - selling on rallies for single - sided trading, and pay attention to reverse spreads for the 9 - 1 spread [3]. - For urea, it is expected that there will be some support at the bottom, and prices will tend to be strong. Traders with long positions at low levels can continue to hold, while those not in the market should wait for the market sentiment to cool down before considering long positions. The inter - month spread should focus on positive spreads on dips [5]. - Rubber prices have returned to range - bound trading. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term operations. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][11]. - For styrene, pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [13]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to the weak supply - demand situation [15]. - Polyethylene prices are expected to remain volatile in the short and medium term, while polypropylene prices are expected to fluctuate with a downward bias in May [17][18]. - PX and PTA are in the maintenance season, with short - term valuation support, but the upside of absolute prices is limited by weak crude oil. For ethylene glycol, the focus is on whether the inventory reduction expectation can be realized [20][21][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose by $2.33, or 4.02%, to $60.28; Brent main crude oil futures rose by $2.17, or 3.56%, to $63.12; INE main crude oil futures fell by 7.20 yuan, or 1.54% [6]. - **Inventory Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.22 million barrels to 13.43 million barrels, a 1.63% increase; diesel inventories increased by 0.18 million barrels to 8.91 million barrels, a 2.05% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 1.93 million barrels to 20.54 million barrels, an 8.59% decrease; total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.54 million barrels to 42.88 million barrels, a 3.46% decrease [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On May 8, the 09 contract fell by 23 yuan/ton to 2216 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell by 42 yuan/ton, with a basis of +164 [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic enterprise start - up rates are gradually rising, and production is at a historically high level. Supply will continue to increase, imports will rise, and traditional demand will weaken [3]. - **Profit**: Enterprise profits have declined due to weak spot prices but remain at a high level overall. Future profits are expected to shift downstream, and production profits are expected to be further compressed [3]. - **Strategy**: Focus on short - selling on rallies for single - sided trading, pay attention to reverse spreads for the 9 - 1 spread, and look for long - position opportunities for the 09 contract PP - 3MA spread on dips [3]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On May 8, the 09 contract fell by 4 yuan/ton to 1882 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +18 [5]. - **Policy and Market**: The fertilizer export symposium pointed out that May - September is the fertilizer export window, and urea exports to India are prohibited. The total fertilizer export volume should not exceed the 2023 level. It is likely that partial exports will be gradually liberalized, but the intensity will be limited [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is gradually increasing, and the domestic market is in the peak season for summer top - dressing demand. Exports are highly uncertain [5]. - **Strategy**: Traders with long positions at low levels can continue to hold, while those not in the market should wait for the market sentiment to cool down before considering long positions. The inter - month spread should focus on positive spreads on dips [5]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Rubber prices have returned to range - bound trading, showing relative strength among industrial products [8]. - **Supply - Side Policy**: Thailand intends to postpone rubber tapping for one month to counter US tariff threats. If strictly implemented, rubber production is expected to decrease by 20 - 30 tons, but the market anticipates that the actual reduction may be less than 20 tons [9]. - **Demand and Inventory**: Tire factory start - up rates are declining. As of May 8, 2025, the full - steel tire start - up rate in Shandong was 44.75%, down 9.59 percentage points from last week and 4.44 percentage points from the same period last year; the semi - steel tire start - up rate was 57.98%, down 11.14 percentage points from last week and 18.11 percentage points from the same period last year. As of May 4, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 135.5 tons, a 0.12% increase [10]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term operations. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [11]. 3.5 Styrene - **Market Quotes**: On May 8, the 06 contract closed at 6936 (-105) yuan/ton, and the Jiangsu spot price was 7140 (-100) yuan/ton, with a basis of +204 (+8) yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply - side maintenance has ended and production is restarting, while demand remains weak. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries are declining, and the production plans of white - goods manufacturers are weakening [13]. - **Inventory**: The absolute inventory at ports is at a low level, and inventory reduction this week may limit the decline in styrene prices [13]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [13]. 3.6 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell by 37 yuan to 4839 yuan, and the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4660 (-40) yuan/ton, with a basis of -179 (-3) yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall start - up rate of PVC is 79.3%, a 0.7% week - on - week increase. The downstream start - up rate is 43.9%, a 4.2% decrease. Factory inventory is 41.1 tons (-0.9), and social inventory is 64 tons (-4.8) [15]. - **Cost and Profit**: Cost remains stable, and the profit pressure of integrated enterprises is high. There are still many maintenance plans for calcium - carbide - based production facilities [15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, although inventory is being reduced rapidly, the supply - demand situation is weak. Further inventory reduction depends on maintenance intensity and exports. PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [15]. 3.7 Polyolefins 3.7.1 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices are falling. The main contract closed at 7016 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan decrease, and the spot price was 7335 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan decrease, with a basis of 319 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan weakening [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the second quarter, new production capacity on the supply side is large, and the supply side may face pressure. The seasonal off - season is approaching, and demand for agricultural films is decreasing [17]. - **Inventory**: Production enterprise inventory is 57.54 tons, a 16.14 - ton increase, and trader inventory is 6.06 tons, a 0.75 - ton increase [17]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the downward trend is dominated by supply - side production capacity start - up. In the medium and long term, only a 50 - ton ExxonMobil No. 3 device is expected to start production in May, and prices are expected to remain volatile [17]. 3.7.2 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices are falling. The main contract closed at 6985 yuan/ton, a 44 - yuan decrease, and the spot price remained unchanged at 7280 yuan/ton, with a basis of 295 yuan/ton, a 44 - yuan strengthening [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: In May, there is no new production capacity on the supply side, and maintenance is at a high level. The downstream start - up rate is expected to decline seasonally [18]. - **Inventory**: Production enterprise inventory is 67.64 tons, an 11.16 - ton increase; trader inventory is 14.27 tons, a 1.32 - ton increase; and port inventory is 7.79 tons, a 0.17 - ton increase [18]. - **Outlook**: Polypropylene prices are expected to fluctuate with a downward bias in May [18]. 3.8 PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol 3.8.1 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose by 116 yuan to 6404 yuan, and PX CFR rose by 10 dollars to 778 dollars, with a basis of 59 yuan (-27) and a 9 - 1 spread of 70 yuan (+34) [19][20]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: PX is still in the maintenance season. Chinese PX operating rate is 73%, and Asian operating rate is 67.9%. There are device restarts and maintenance [20]. - **Inventory and Import**: In April, South Korea's PX exports to China were 39 tons, a 9 - ton increase. Inventory at the end of March was 468 tons, unchanged month - on - month [20]. - **Valuation and Cost**: PXN is 206 dollars (+13), and naphtha crack spread is 115 dollars (+15) [20]. - **Outlook**: In the second quarter, domestic inventory is expected to continue to decline. The terminal textile and clothing orders are weak, and the industry faces medium - term negative feedback pressure. However, short - term terminal restocking has alleviated polyester inventory pressure, and the risk of negative feedback is postponed. The short - term valuation has support, but the upside of absolute prices is limited by weak crude oil [20]. 3.8.2 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose by 80 yuan to 4546 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 50 yuan to 4615 yuan, with a basis of 120 yuan (+12) and a 9 - 1 spread of 64 yuan (+62) [21]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: PTA is in the maintenance season, with an operating rate of 70.3%, a 7.4% decrease. There are device restarts and maintenance [21]. - **Demand - Side Situation**: The downstream operating rate is 94%, a 0.6% increase. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates are rising [21]. - **Inventory**: On May 6, social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 254.2 tons, a 14.7 - ton decrease [21]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Spot processing fee decreased by 8 yuan to 375 yuan, and on - paper processing fee increased by 4 yuan to 345 yuan [21]. - **Outlook**: The industry faces medium - term negative feedback pressure, but short - term terminal restocking has alleviated polyester inventory pressure, and the risk of negative feedback is postponed. PTA short - term valuation has support, but the upside of absolute prices is limited by weak crude oil [21]. 3.8.3 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose by 23 yuan to 4222 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 7 yuan to 4262 yuan, with a basis of 70 yuan (+14) and a 9 - 1 spread of -7 yuan (+15) [22]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: The ethylene glycol operating rate is 69%, a 0.6% increase. There are device restarts, maintenance, and production - rate adjustments [22]. - **Demand - Side Situation**: The downstream operating rate is 94%, a 0.6% increase. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates are rising [22]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 79 tons, a 1 - ton decrease [22]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Naphtha - based production profit is -529 yuan, domestic ethylene - based production profit is -673 yuan, and coal - based production profit is 966 yuan. Cost remains stable [22]. - **Outlook**: The industry is in the inventory - reduction stage, but the actual inventory - reduction extent is limited due to high hidden inventory. The industry faces medium - term negative feedback risk, and the focus is on whether the inventory - reduction expectation can be realized [22].

集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 5 月 9 日星期五 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z001 ...

亚朗现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年5月9日 张晓珍 Z0003135 甲醇价格及价差 聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月9日 张晓珍 数据来源:Wind、卓创、彭博、隆众、广发期货发展研究中心。请仔细阅读报告尼端免费声明。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发明货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料,但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报 告反映研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法、并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下、报告内容仅供参考、报告中 的信息或所泰达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价. 投资者据此投资. 风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其 他专业人士,版权归广发期货所有,未经广发期货书面授权. 任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发,需注 明出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | 品种 | 5月8日 | 5月7日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M ...

1、国家发改委：正在完善民企参与国家重大项目建设长效机制，今年还将推出总投资规模约 3 万亿元 优质项目。 2、金融监管总局副局长丛林：已设立 74 只私募股权投资基金，支持投资科技创新企业。 3、英国和美国已经就关税贸易协议条款达成一致。英国政府同意进口美国食品和农业产品方面作出让 步，以换取美方降低对英国汽车出口的关税。 资金面：融资额+72.20 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率-11.80bp 至 1.5390%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-2.67bp 至 3.0673%，十年期国债利率-1.28bp 至 1.6330%，信用利差-1.39bp 至 143bp；美国 10 年期利率-4.00bp 至 4.26%，中美利差+2.72bp 至-263bp。 文字早评 2025/05/09 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+0.28%，创指+1.65%，科创 50-0.36%，北证 50+0.98%，上证 50+0.33%，沪深 300+0.56%， 中证 500+0.41%，中证 1000+0.76%，中证 2000+1.09%，万得微盘+1.75%。两市合计成交 12934 ...

文字早评 2025/05/06 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指-0.23%，创指+0.83%，科创 50+0.85%，北证 50+2.96%，上证 50-0.47%，沪深 300-0.12%， 中证 500+0.48%，中证 1000+0.79%，中证 2000+1.29%，万得微盘+1.41%。两市合计成交 11693 亿，较上 一日+1472 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、商务部：美方主动向中方传递信息希望谈起来，对此，中方正在评估。节日期间离岸人民币大涨。 2、据新华社，"五一"假期全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额同比增长 6.3%。 3、美国 4 月非农就业人口增长 17.7 万人，大幅好于预期。 资金面：融资额-13.51 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+21.90bp 至 1.7600%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-1.54bp 至 3.0966%，十年期国债利率+0.03bp 至 1.6279%，信用利差-1.57bp 至 147bp；美国 10 年期利率+8.00bp 至 4.33%，中美利差-7.97bp 至-270bp。 市盈率：沪深 300:12.21，中证 500: ...

广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 4 月 24 日星期四 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

文字早评 2025/04/21 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指-0.11%，创指+0.27%，科创 50-0.81%，北证 50+1.97%，上证 50-0.08%，沪深 300+0.01%， 中证 500+0.07%，中证 1000-0.13%，中证 2000-0.20%，万得微盘-0.02%。两市合计成交 9147 亿，较上 一日-848 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、国常会：研究稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干措施，要持续稳定股市，持续推动房地产市场平 稳健康发展。 2、白宫将设工作组紧急处理对中国加征关税危机，特朗普称 1 个月内会与中国达成协议。 3、特朗普又喊话降息，白宫顾问承认在研究解雇鲍威尔。 资金面：融资额-87.08 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+2.60bp 至 1.6600%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-0.10bp 至 3.0824%，十年期国债利率-0.27bp 至 1.6490%，信用利差+0.17bp 至 143bp；美国 10 年期利率+5.00bp 至 4.34%，中美利差-5.27bp 至-269bp。 市盈率：沪深 300:12.26，中证 5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff issue continues to disrupt the market, causing significant fluctuations in risk assets. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs by the US has led to a rapid increase in market risk appetite, but the escalation of China-US tariffs is beneficial for gold. - The US dollar index has weakened due to the suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most countries by Trump, and it is expected to remain volatile in the short term. - The stock index futures market has been boosted by China's tariff countermeasures against the US, but the subsequent macro - level changes will increase market volatility. - The commodity market is generally under pressure. The prices of palm oil, coal, iron ore, and some energy - chemical products are affected by various factors such as market sentiment, supply - demand relationships, and tariff policies. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Event: Trump approved a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on over 75 countries, during which the reciprocal tariffs will be reduced to 10%. - Review: Gold prices soared by over 3%, once rising by over $100, setting a record for the largest single - day increase. The suspension of tariffs increased market risk appetite, but the escalation of China - US tariffs is beneficial for gold. Gold is a good tool to hedge against the decline in the US dollar's credit. - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish approach in the short - term volatile market [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Event: Summers warned that the US is far from out of danger and has lost a lot of credibility. The Fed meeting minutes showed that the US economy faces risks. Trump suspended reciprocal tariffs on most countries. - Review: The suspension of tariffs led to a significant rebound in market risk appetite, causing the US dollar index to weaken. The reciprocal tariffs are in a temporary adjustment phase, and the US dollar index is expected to remain volatile. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short term [15][16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Event: China increased tariffs on US imports from 34% to 84%. The Fed meeting minutes showed that inflation is slightly high and economic uncertainty has increased. Trump suspended tariffs on some countries but raised tariffs on China to 125%. - Review: The China - US tariff negotiation is at a deadlock, and policy uncertainty remains high. The financial market is volatile, and the risk of a liquidity shock has not been eliminated. - Investment advice: Adopt a bearish approach and avoid chasing high prices [20][21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Event: The Chinese Premier held a symposium on the economic situation. China increased tariffs on US imports from 34% to 84%. - Review: The A - share market rebounded, and market sentiment was boosted. However, subsequent macro - level changes will increase market volatility. - Investment advice: Adopt a risk - averse approach in the short term [23][24][26]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Event: China released a white paper on China - US economic and trade relations. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 111 billion yuan. - Review: The main logic of the treasury bond market is clear. The probability of a short - term easing of trade conflicts is low, and the expectation of loose monetary policy is difficult to be falsified. The upward trend of treasury bonds is likely to continue. - Investment advice: Hold positions and wait for the implementation of loose policies, or add positions on dips [27][28][29]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Event: Indonesian palm oil industry and farmer groups urged the government to reduce export tariffs to 0% to offset the impact of US tariffs. - Review: The global market sentiment is low, and the price of palm oil has fallen. China's counter - tariffs on the US may be beneficial for far - month soybean oil. The possibility of Indonesia reducing palm oil export tariffs is low. - Investment advice: Consider closing previous short positions and pay attention to the MPOB report [30][31]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Event: As of the end of March, China's commercial cotton inventory decreased, and India's cotton planting area may increase. The CCI has purchased a large amount of cotton, and its sales volume is not high. - Review: The CCI's purchase and sales situation, as well as the trade war, may affect India's cotton production, consumption, and import estimates. The price of Zhengzhou cotton has fallen, but the decline may slow down. - Investment advice: The cotton price is expected to be weakly volatile. Pay attention to macro - policies, planting, weather, and industry conditions in major producing countries [32][35][37]. 2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Event: China's coal demand is expected to increase slightly in 2025. - Review: The coal price has been relatively stable. The power plant's inventory is at a neutral level, and the price is expected to be supported in May but lacks elasticity. - Investment advice: The power plant may replenish coal inventory in May, but the price increase is limited [38]. 2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Event: JFE Steel in Japan plans to shut down a blast furnace, reducing its annual crude steel production capacity by about 4 million tons. - Review: The black metal market has continued to decline, but the short - term deterioration of fundamentals is not severe. Pay attention to the risk of liquidity. - Investment advice: Maintain a bearish approach and wait for a better opportunity to short after a rebound [39][40][41]. 2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Event: The coking coal market in East China has remained stable. Some coal mines in Shanxi have reduced production, and downstream coke enterprises have started to increase prices. - Review: The coking coal spot market has improved, but the futures market faces pressure. The coke spot market may continue to increase prices, but the medium - long - term supply is expected to be loose. - Investment advice: The spot market has stabilized, but the futures market faces pressure from subsequent demand and warehouse receipts [42][43]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Event: The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has decreased significantly, but inventory has only decreased slightly. - Review: High raw material prices and weak downstream demand have led to a decrease in the operating rate. The futures price difference between corn starch and corn is expected to remain stable. - Investment advice: The CS05 - C05 price difference is expected to remain around the normal processing fee of 380 yuan [44][45][47]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Event: The inventory at northern ports has decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the price of corn in the production area is relatively firm. - Review: The outflow of corn from Northeast China has accelerated, and the weak basis has suppressed the futures price. The 07 contract is considered undervalued. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the 07 contract is undervalued and pay attention to whether the acceleration of inventory reduction in Northeast China can boost trader sentiment [48]. 2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Event: The retail sales of passenger cars in March increased significantly year - on - year. - Review: The steel price has rebounded, and market sentiment has improved. However, the demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for hot - rolled coils is declining slowly. - Investment advice: Adopt a cautious approach in the short term and hedge on the spot market when prices are high [49][50][51]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Event: The sales volume of three major listed pig enterprises increased in March, and the average selling price slightly increased. - Review: The short - term fluctuation of pig prices has increased, but it will eventually return to the fundamental situation. The spot price may face downward pressure. - Investment advice: Continuously pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [52][53][54]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Event: Yunnan Nengtou Group's Yongchang Silicon's 100,000 - ton hydropower silicon project was put into operation. Some production capacity in Xinjiang was reduced, and some new production capacity in the southwest is expected to be put into operation. - Review: The supply has decreased, but the demand is weak, and the fundamental situation of industrial silicon is difficult to change. - Investment advice: The futures price may range from 9,000 to 10,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and Si2511 - Si2512 reverse arbitrage opportunities [55][56][57]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Event: The LME lead spread was at a discount, and the price of refined lead decreased. - Review: The lead price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Although the medium - term outlook is bullish, macro risks have not been eliminated. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and look for buying opportunities on dips. Continue to hold the internal - external reverse arbitrage [58][59][60]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Event: The blockade of Glencore's Antapaccay copper mine in Peru was suspended. Codelco plans to significantly increase copper production this year. Indonesia will increase mining royalties. - Review: The short - term macro factors have a relatively uncertain impact on copper prices. The short - term supply and demand in China are strong, and the inventory is expected to decrease. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in Shanghai copper [61][62][64]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Event: The LME zinc spread was at a discount, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference widened. - Review: The zinc price is mainly affected by macro factors. The market is cautious, and the export of zinc may be suppressed. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [65][66][67]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Event: An Australian company produced the first batch of lithium carbonate in Argentina. Argentina plans to increase lithium production by 75% in 2025. - Review: The current fundamentals of lithium carbonate are bearish, and the price may continue to decline in the long term. - Investment advice: Consider partial profit - taking on short positions in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the long term [68][69][70]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Event: Indonesia will increase mining and coal royalties in the second week of April. - Review: The nickel price has slightly decreased, and the cost is expected to increase marginally. The market may digest negative sentiment. - Investment advice: Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips after the release of negative sentiment [71][72]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Event: China increased tariffs on US imports to 84%. The US C3 inventory started to accumulate. - Review: The PG price has decreased, but it may strengthen due to the increase in tariffs and the recovery of crude oil prices. However, policy uncertainty should be noted. - Investment advice: The domestic market may experience a valuation - repair market, but reduce risk exposure and participate cautiously [73][74][75]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Event: The US EIA crude oil inventory increased. Trump announced the suspension of reciprocal tariffs. - Review: The oil price has rebounded, but there is still a risk of decline due to the uncertainty of the tariff issue and the OPEC+ production policy. - Investment advice: The oil price is expected to be volatile in the short term and still has a downward risk [76]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - Event: The tariff war has escalated, and the demand for PTA is uncertain. - Review: The PTA price has decreased, and the demand for polyester is affected by tariffs. The impact on PTA pricing is relatively lagged. - Investment advice: The PTA price will mainly follow the crude oil price in the short term and is expected to be weakly volatile [77][78]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - Event: The inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased. - Review: The styrene price has reached a new low and then rebounded. The downstream inventory may accumulate, and the production profit may not be sustainable. - Investment advice: The eb - bz spread may expand in the short term and contract in the long term [78][79]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - Event: The price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong decreased, and the supply was stable while the demand was weak. - Review: The caustic soda price is expected to decline, and the market is mainly affected by macro factors in the short term. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [80][82][83]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - Event: The price of imported wood pulp decreased. - Review: The pulp price is mainly affected by macro factors, and the market is bearish. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [84]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - Event: The spot price of PVC powder decreased. - Review: The PVC price is mainly affected by macro factors, and the market is bearish. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [85]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Event: The export price of bottle chips decreased, and a polyester bottle chip device in East China restarted. - Review: The bottle chip price has decreased, and the processing fee has been passively repaired, but it is difficult to break away from the low - level oscillation range. - Investment advice: The bottle chip price will follow the cost side and be weakly volatile in the short term [86][88][89]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Event: The price of soda ash in the East China market was adjusted slightly. - Review: The soda ash price is in a low - level oscillation, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is general. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling approach on rebounds in the medium term [90]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - Event: The price of float glass in Hubei remained stable. - Review: The float glass price is mainly affected by demand. Although there may be an improvement in the second - quarter demand, the upward space is limited. - Investment advice: The float glass price will be in a low - level range in the short term. Pay attention to buying opportunities on large dips [91][92][93].

金价延续跌势，海外市场恐慌情绪有所缓解，但贸易战短期并 没有明显的缓和迹象，其他国家预期陆续和美国进行谈判，但 中国推出反制措施后，特朗普再度施压。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 贝森特：预计在 4 月 9 日关税上调之前不会达成任何协议 综 特朗普最新表态没有考虑暂停加征关税，短期市场波动加剧， 市场风险偏好短期回升，流动性冲击暂时结束。 日度报告——综合晨报 新关税政策将会产生"重要影响" [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-08 宏观策略（黄金） 美联储理事库格勒：新关税政策将会产生"重要影响" 巴西大豆收获完成 87% 中美贸易战升级为当前市场主要矛盾，CBOT 大豆下跌，昨日巴 西 CNF 升贴水上涨但涨幅有限，昨日我国进口巴西豆成本甚至 较清明小长假前略降、豆粕期价涨幅有限。 有色金属（氧化铝） 西澳地区为主的海外氧化铝成交价格继续回落 氧化铝企业因担心长单客户损失、对成本下降的预期以及储备 现金流和产业链优势等因素，继续维持生产。 能源化工（原油） 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 商务部召开美资企业圆桌会 报 受关税冲击影响，A 股市场暴跌，主要指数跌幅高达 8%以上。 短期内 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rubber market is bearish due to strong supply increase expectations, weakened global demand under tariff disturbances, and continued inventory accumulation [3]. - For PX, PTA, and MEG, the cost has dropped significantly, and demand has weakened due to tariff disturbances. PX prices are expected to be weak, PTA prices will follow the cost - side to fluctuate, and MEG prices are relatively supported to rebound [4]. - The polyolefin market's demand is expected to weaken significantly after the "reciprocal tariff" is implemented, and prices are expected to decline following crude oil [5]. - The PVC market's supply and demand will both weaken marginally, and prices are expected to fall after the "reciprocal tariff" is implemented [6]. - The methanol market's near - term supply and demand are tight, but the far - month supply and demand may be loose, and the main contract is expected to be weak [7]. 3. Summaries by Directory Rubber Price - Futures prices of RU, NR, and BR have declined. The RU main contract decreased by 375 yuan/ton, the NR main contract by 470 yuan/ton, and the BR main contract by 390 yuan/ton from March 28 to April 3 [12]. - The basis of rubber main contracts has changed. The RU main contract basis decreased by 25 yuan/ton, the NR main contract basis by 6 yuan/ton, and the BR main contract basis increased by 490 yuan/ton [15]. - The RU5 - 9 month spread fluctuates slightly. The RU - NR spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton compared to the previous period and 222 yuan/ton year - on - year [19]. - The processing profit of Thai standard rubber has improved. It increased by 50.67 dollars/ton compared to the previous period and 66 dollars/ton year - on - year [25]. Supply - Domestic and foreign natural rubber production areas are in different stages of the opening season. China's Yunnan and Hainan, Thailand, and Vietnam have specific opening schedules. The supply is expected to increase [3][33]. - China's natural and mixed rubber imports have increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In February 2025, the imports of natural and mixed rubber were 50.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.9% [41]. - The production of butadiene is at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene on April 4, 2025, was 75.37%, a year - on - year increase of 11.71% [45]. - There is a net import of butadiene rubber. In February 2025, the import was 22,651 tons, and the export was 18,456 tons [52]. Demand - The domestic demand for rubber is generally rigid. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 75.81%, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 68.28%, showing a decline compared to the previous period and the same period last year [3][55]. - Tire manufacturers have insufficient motivation to reduce inventory. As of the week of April 4, the inventory turnover days of domestic tire enterprises' full - steel tires and semi - steel tires were 41 days and 43 days respectively, with a weekly decrease of 1 day [56]. - From January to February, tire exports maintained a year - on - year increase [57]. - China's automobile production and sales continued to grow steadily. In March 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a 29% increase from February and a 9% decrease from the same period last year [58][59]. Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber is still in the accumulation stage. As of March 30, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.379 million tons, a 0.6% increase from the previous period [3]. - The inventory of Qingdao area has increased. As of March 28, the total inventory was 476,400 tons, an increase of 21,600 tons from the previous period [61]. - As of April 3, the natural rubber warehouse receipt was 200,000 tons, a weekly increase of 700 tons, and the exchange total inventory was 200,771 tons, a weekly decrease of 40 tons [66]. 持仓 - The total positions of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and BR have changed. As of April 3, 2025, the total positions of natural rubber decreased by 7,043 hands, 20 - number rubber decreased by 11,038 hands, and BR increased by 4,939 hands compared to March 28 [72]. - The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR has declined, and the warehouse receipt pressure has eased [75]. PX&PTA&MEG Price - The futures prices of PX, PTA, and MEG have declined. From March 28 to April 3, 2025, the PTA closing price decreased by 92 yuan/ton, the MEG closing price by 12 yuan/ton, and the PX closing price by 140 yuan/ton [100]. - The basis and spreads of PTA, MEG, and PX have changed. For example, the PTA basis decreased by 1 yuan/ton, the MEG basis decreased by 18 yuan/ton, and the PX basis increased by 135 yuan/ton [108]. Supply - Some PX devices have started maintenance. As of April 4, the PX operating load in China was 74.4%, a weekly decrease of 3.4%, and the Asian PX operating load was 71.5%, a weekly decrease of 1% [120]. - The operating load of PTA decreased by 0.7% to 79.2% as of April 3 [123]. - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 72.13% as of April 3, a decrease of 0.45% from the previous period [125]. 进出口 No relevant information provided. Inventory - The ethylene glycol inventory has decreased. The inventory in the East China main port area was about 785,000 tons as of March 31, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous period [4]. Polyester Demand The terminal demand is in the process of recovery, but the downstream demand after the festival has not recovered as expected, and the recovery of terminal demand is slow [130][131]. 持仓 No relevant information provided.