国内市场综述 冲高回落 走势分化 周一（7 月 14 日）大盘冲高回落，走势分化。截至收 盘，上证综指收于 3519.65 点，上涨 0.27%；深成指 收于 10684.52 点，下跌 0.11%；科创 50 下跌 0.21%； 创业板指下跌 0.45%，万得全 A 成交额共 14809 亿元， 较前一日明显下降。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 20 个行业上涨，其 中机械、石油石化、电力及公用事业涨幅居前，而综 合金融、房地产及传媒则跌幅较大。概念方面，PEEK 材料、宇树机器人及减速器等指数表现活跃。 海外市场综述 美国三大股指小幅收涨，纳指创历史新高 周一（7 月 14 日），美国三大股指小幅收涨，道指涨 0.2%，标普 500 指数涨 0.14%，纳指涨 0.27%。万得美 国科技七巨头指数跌 0.1%，苹果跌超 1%，英伟达跌 0.52%。中概股多数上涨，蔚来涨超 7%。 新闻精要 1. 《中共中央关于加强新时代审判工作的意见》发布 2. 央行公布上半年金融数据 3. 海关公布今年上半年我国货物贸易进出口数据 4. 李成钢国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长会见中国美国 商会会员企业代表团 5. 美国总统 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes strict punishment for financial crimes such as market manipulation and insider trading to promote healthy financial market development [1] - The People's Bank of China announces a 14 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, signaling continued monetary policy support and market stabilization [3] - M2 money supply increased to 330.29 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%, indicating improved financing conditions for small and medium enterprises [4] Group 2: Industry Developments - The U.S. Department of Commerce initiates investigations into drone systems and polysilicon imports, which may lead to tariffs if deemed a national security threat [2] - Meta plans to invest several billion dollars in artificial intelligence, with significant implications for the data center market, projected to grow from $75 billion to $94 billion by 2028 [9] - The global brain-computer interface medical application market is expected to reach $40 billion by 2030, driven by policy support and technological advancements [10] - The humanoid robot market in China is projected to reach nearly 38 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 61% from 2024 to 2030 [11] Group 3: Company Earnings - Huahong Technology expects a net profit of 70 million to 85 million yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 3047.48% to 3721.94% [14] - Teva Pharmaceutical anticipates a net profit of 34 million to 38 million yuan for the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1164.22% to 1312.95% [14] - Shanshan Holdings expects a net profit of 160 million to 240 million yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 810.41% to 1265.61% [14] - China Salt Chemical reports a net profit of 52.71 million yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 88.04% [14] - Greenland Holdings anticipates a net loss of 3 billion to 3.5 billion yuan for the first half of the year [14] - Overseas Chinese Town A expects a net loss of 2.3 billion to 2.9 billion yuan for the first half of the year [14]

Market Overview - On July 14, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.27%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.07%, the STAR 50 fell by 0.21%, the CSI 1000 rose by 0.02%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.45% [4] - The best-performing sectors on July 14 were machinery equipment (+1.23%), comprehensive (+1.04%), public utilities (+1.04%), household appliances (+1.02%), and oil and petrochemicals (+0.86%). The worst-performing sectors were real estate (-1.29%), media (-1.24%), non-bank financials (-1.03%), retail (-0.94%), and computers (-0.88%) [4][3] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on July 14 was 1,480.9 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 8.243 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4][3] Industry Insights - The report highlights the dual opportunities presented by HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current) and the AI wave, indicating a new investment trend in AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) [5] - HVDC is expected to open up growth opportunities, while the demand for backup power sources in the generator segment is on the rise due to supply shortages [5] - Investment opportunities include the high value of power supply systems and the increasing density of AI computing chips driving HVDC iterations, alongside the upward trend in generator backup power demand [5]

Macro Strategy - The "Great Beautiful Act" has been quickly implemented, but its distribution effects and the tightening fiscal impact from excluding extended and expanded tax cuts limit its growth stimulus for the US economy [1][24] - The act's characteristic of "increasing deficits first, reducing deficits later" implies a risk of a "fiscal cliff" around 2028 [1][24] - In the short term, concerns about the impact of US Treasury issuance on market liquidity and yield premiums are not excessive; however, the long-term path dependency of unsustainable US government debt makes it difficult for Treasury yield premiums to decrease [1][24] Fixed Income - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is evident as the stock market stabilizes, influencing bond yields; the 10-year government bond yield rose from 1.641% to 1.666% during the week [3][5] - The bond market's reaction to Trump's threats of additional tariffs on BRICS countries was muted, indicating a limited impact on bond yields [3][5] - The bond yield's upward trend is expected to continue, influenced by stock market performance, but the extent of the increase is likely to be limited [5] Industry Insights - Wanda Film's diversified layout in esports and concert live streaming is expected to create new growth points, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.0 billion, 1.24 billion, and 1.44 billion yuan, respectively [8] - Lianlian Digital is projected to achieve a reasonable P/S valuation of 8.0x and 7.0x for 2025 and 2026, respectively, as it continues to expand its business [10] - Youyou Foods has revised its profit forecast upwards, expecting net profits of 232 million, 285 million, and 329 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a growth rate of 47.2%, 23.2%, and 15.3% [11] - Siyi Electric's net profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to be 1.293 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46%, driven by strong overseas orders [14][15] - The energy sector, represented by Furan Energy, anticipates stable growth in natural gas supply and a steady increase in new energy business, with net profit forecasts of 872 million, 922 million, and 976 million yuan for 2025-2027 [12] - The lithium battery sector, represented by Weilan Lithium Core, has revised its profit expectations upwards, forecasting net profits of 750 million, 1 billion, and 1.31 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting significant growth [13] - The pharmaceutical sector, represented by Lianbang Pharmaceutical, is expected to see revenue growth driven by innovative drug development, with net profits projected at 3.11 billion, 3.10 billion, and 3.38 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [21]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported that as of June 2025, the broad money supply (M2) reached 330.29 trillion yuan, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, up by 4.6% [2] - In the first half of 2025, new RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, and the total social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - The PBOC plans to conduct a 14 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [4] Group 2 - China's total goods trade in the first half of 2025 was 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports at 13 trillion yuan (up 7.2%) and imports at 8.79 trillion yuan (down 2.7%) [4] - In June 2025, the monthly trade volume reached 3.85 trillion yuan, marking a 5.2% increase, with exports of 2.34 trillion yuan (up 7.2%) and imports of 1.51 trillion yuan (up 2.3%) [4] Group 3 - China Salt Chemical Corporation reported a 5.76% decrease in revenue for the first half of 2025, totaling 5.998 billion yuan, with a net profit decline of 88.04% to 52.71 million yuan [9] - Qianfang Technology expects a net profit increase of 1125.99% to 1534.65% for the first half of 2025 [11] - Huahong Technology anticipates a net profit growth of 3047.48% to 3721.94% for the same period [12] - Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation projects a net profit increase of 1628.83% to 2315.27% for the first half of 2025 [21]

证券代码：603721 证券简称：*ST 天择 公告编号：2025-015 中广天择传媒股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： ? 本期业绩预告适用于：净利润为负值。 ? 公司预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润-1200 万元左 右。预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润 -1500 万元左右。 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 （二）业绩预告情况 经财务部门初步测算，预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利 润-1200 万元左右。 预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润 -1500 万元左右。 （三）本次业绩预告未经注册会计师审计 二、上年同期业绩情况 （一）归属于母公司所有者的净利润：-656.20 万元。归属于母公司所有者 的扣除非经常性损益的净利润：-1085.91 万元。 （二）每股收益：-0.05 元。 三、本期业绩预亏的主要原因 （一）主营业务影响 公司不存在可 ...

每周一景： 云南兰坪澜沧江山谷河流村庄风光 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【交运】 "反内卷"各行业推进，利好交运业多板块 中央再次强调"反内卷"，有望推动各行业深化。 过去一年"反内卷"逐步成为国家重要政策， 2024 年 12 月中央经济工作会议将"综合整治内卷式竞争"列为 2025 年重要任务。 2025 年 7 月 1 日中央财经委员会第六次会议强调：纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞 争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出。我们认为有望再次推动各行业深化"反内卷"，航空、快递、大宗供应链运营等交运板块有望不同程度受 益，若系列措施执行到位或将改善行业盈利能力。 航空："反内卷"将助力收益管理策略继续改善，保障机队规划继续低速增长。 2025 年 6 月 26 日中国民航局召开专题会议部署综合整治"内卷式"竞争工 作。根据界面新闻，局方强调"内卷"本质是大量资源投入低效同质化的竞争，部分市场主体为追求短期效益，争夺市场份额，违背经济运行规律，过度低价， 扎堆式投放运力，形成低质量同质化过度竞争；下一步局方将尽快制定完善航空运输价格行为规则，防止以低于成本价开展 ...

金 金融工程点评 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 研究助理：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com [Table_Title] 金工 ETF 点评：跨境 ETF 单日净流入 20.67 亿元；电子、汽车、家电拥挤低位 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 一般证券业务登记编码：S1190123080008 一、资金流向 二、行业拥挤度监测 ◼ 通过构建行业拥挤度监测模型，对申万一级行业指数的拥挤度进行每日监测， 前一交易日有色金属、钢铁拥挤度靠前，相比较而言，汽车、电子的拥挤度 水平较低，建议关注。此外，电力设备单日拥挤度变动较大。从主力资金流 动来看，前一交易日主力资金流入非银、计算机，流出电子、电力设备、传 媒。近三个交易日主力资金增配非银。 三、ETF 产品关注信号 ◼ 根据溢价率 Z-score 模型搭建相关 ETF 产品筛选信号模型，通过滚动测算提 供存在潜在套利机会的标的，此外需警惕标的回调风险。 风险提示：本报告结论完全基于公开历史数据，建议 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - On July 14, the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced a net outflow of 26.576 billion yuan, with the ChiNext board seeing a net outflow of 12.112 billion yuan and the CSI 300 index stocks a net outflow of 6.366 billion yuan [1] - Among the 21 industries tracked, mechanical equipment, public utilities, and home appliances saw the largest gains, each rising over 1%, while real estate, media, and non-bank financial sectors fell more than 1% [1] - Four industries received net inflows from main funds, with mechanical equipment leading at 394 million yuan, followed by home appliances at 117 million yuan, and coal and petrochemical sectors each exceeding 37 million yuan [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Among individual stocks, 37 saw net inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with six stocks surpassing 200 million yuan in inflows [2] - Zhongji Xuchuang, a leader in optical modules, topped the inflow list with 497 million yuan, benefiting from increased demand for ASIC servers driven by growth in ARR for AWS's Anthropic and Google's Gemini [2] - Notable stocks such as Xiangyang Bearing, Brother Technology, and Kelu Electronics also saw significant inflows, with Kelu Electronics reaching a net inflow of 314 million yuan, the highest since June 23, 2016 [2] Group 3: Notable Outflows - Over 90 stocks experienced net outflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with 21 stocks seeing outflows over 300 million yuan [3] - Leading the outflows were BYD and Northern Rare Earth, each with net outflows exceeding 1.1 billion yuan, with Northern Rare Earth's outflow reaching 1.105 billion yuan, marking a new high since November 4, 2024 [3][4] Group 4: Tail-End Market Activity - At the market close, there was a net outflow of 1.483 billion yuan, with the ChiNext board seeing an outflow of 806 million yuan [6] - Notably, the digital currency concept stock Chutianlong saw a significant reversal, with a net inflow of 204 million yuan, despite a projected loss of 35 to 40 million yuan for the upcoming half-year [7] - Other stocks with notable tail-end inflows included Tianyang Technology and Hanyu Pharmaceutical, each exceeding 40 million yuan [8]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3519.65 points, up 0.27%, with a trading volume of 623.1 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10684.52 points, down 0.11%, with a trading volume of 835.6 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2197.07 points, down 0.45%, with a trading volume of 387.28 billion yuan [1] - The STAR Market 50 Index closed at 992.39 points, down 0.21%, with a trading volume of 22.92 billion yuan [1] - Total trading volume for both markets was 1458.75 billion yuan, a decrease of 253.38 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Strong sectors included machinery, public utilities, oil and petrochemicals, textiles, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals [2] - Active concepts included PEEK materials, humanoid robots, geothermal energy, and innovative drugs [2] - Weak sectors included real estate, media, securities, education, insurance, and retail [2] Fund Flow - The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 26.576 billion yuan [3] - The net outflow from the ChiNext was 12.112 billion yuan, and from the CSI 300 was 6.366 billion yuan [4] - Only four sectors saw net inflows: machinery (394 million yuan), home appliances (117 million yuan), coal (38 million yuan), and oil and petrochemicals (37 million yuan) [4] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 2089 stocks saw net inflows, with 37 stocks receiving over 100 million yuan in net inflows [5] - The stock with the highest net inflow was Zhongji Xuchuang, with 497 million yuan [6] - Conversely, 3048 stocks experienced net outflows, with 92 stocks seeing over 100 million yuan in net outflows [7] - BYD had the highest net outflow at 1.308 billion yuan [8] Institutional Activity - Institutions had a net buy of approximately 33.89 million yuan, with 17 stocks being net bought and 14 stocks net sold [9] - The stock with the highest institutional net buy was Xiangyang Bearing, with about 111 million yuan [10]