Report Industry Investment Rating All the varieties in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4][6][7] Core Viewpoints The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical commodities, including their price movements, market supply - demand situations, and influencing factors. Most commodities are expected to oscillate in the short - term due to various factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand changes, and cost fluctuations [1][2][4]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI December contract rose $1.26 to $58.50/barrel (2.18% increase), Brent December contract rose $1.27 to $62.59/barrel (2.07% increase), and SC2512 rose 7.3 yuan/barrel to 449.1 yuan/barrel (1.65% increase). US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased last week. Geopolitical factors, such as Trump's remarks on Russia and US - India trade progress, may drive up short - term price volatility [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contracts FU2601 and LU2512 rose. In September 2025, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, while exports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The Asian low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure due to weak demand and sufficient supply [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2601 rose. This week, the social inventory rate decreased slightly, the refinery inventory increased slightly, and the plant operating rate increased slightly. Terminal demand is weak, and high supply may suppress prices [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures rose on Wednesday. Some MEG and refinery units have maintenance plans. Korean PX exports increased. Polyester supply is sufficient, and downstream demand provides some support. The polyester chain follows cost fluctuations [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contracts showed little change. The EU's policy implementation for small and medium - sized enterprises is postponed. Some rubber varieties have tight liquidity, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [4][6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, methanol prices were reported. Domestic and overseas supply has returned to a high level, but future Iranian production growth is limited. Port sanctions may reduce future arrivals. It is recommended to consider long - methanol and short - polyolefin strategies and inter - month positive spread strategies [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, polyolefin prices and production margins were reported. Short - term supply will remain high, and demand growth will slow down. Crude oil rebound supports prices, but the fundamentals drive is weakening, and prices are expected to oscillate [6][7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, PVC prices in different regions changed little. Supply - demand pressure is high, and exports are affected by policies. The price has a need for phased repair, but the rebound is limited by high inventories [7]. Daily Data Monitoring This part provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes for various energy and chemical commodities on October 23, 2025, as well as the percentage of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. Market News - The US EIA reported that last week, US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased. Analysts believe that oil demand is strong, and there is no sign of crude oil surplus in the US [13]. - The US Treasury imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and Trump denied media reports about allowing Ukraine to use long - range missiles against Russia [13]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: It shows the historical closing prices of main contracts for multiple energy and chemical commodities from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, etc. [15][16][17] - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the historical basis data of main contracts for various commodities, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [30][34][35] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the historical spreads of different contracts for multiple commodities, like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [44][46][49] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: It includes the historical spreads and ratios between different commodities, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads [60][62][64] - **Production Profits**: It shows the historical production profits of some commodities, such as ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [69][70] Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director and energy - chemical director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in futures derivatives research and multiple awards [75]. - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth industry research and many awards [76]. - **Di Yilin**: A rubber and polyester analyst, with relevant research achievements and awards [77]. - **Peng Haibo**: A methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst, with experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and financial theory application [78].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [6] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [6] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [6] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ (Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [6] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ (Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - The international oil price continued to rebound, and the SC11 contract rose 2.33% during the day. The decline in US API crude oil inventories and the US crude oil purchase plan supported the market. In the medium - term, there is still pressure of loose supply and demand, but the downward momentum of oil prices may slow down this week. Uncertainties in international talks will bring new fluctuations [2]. - FU and LU followed the rise driven by the strong cost - end. High - sulfur fuel oil is currently supported but may face supply pressure in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's fundamentals are weak, but its cracking spread may be supported in the fourth quarter [3]. - The asphalt main contract rose nearly 3% driven by the rebound of crude oil. The market is in a tight - balance pattern, and the inventory is slightly decreasing [4]. - The LPG main contract rose about 1.7% led by the rebound of crude oil. The supply increased slightly this week, and the fundamentals improved marginally [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The international oil price continued to rebound, with the SC11 contract rising 2.33% during the day. The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 298,100 barrels last week, and the US 1 - million - barrel crude oil purchase plan supported the market. OPEC +'s production increase strategy and the decline in demand after the peak consumption season bring medium - term supply - demand pressure, but the downward momentum of oil prices may slow down this week. Uncertainties in international talks will bring new fluctuations [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - FU and LU followed the rise driven by the strong cost - end. High - sulfur fuel oil is currently supported by geopolitical factors, ship - fuel demand, and feedstock improvement, but supply may be loose in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's fundamentals are weak, with sufficient overseas supply. Its cracking spread may be supported in the fourth quarter [3]. Asphalt - The asphalt main contract rose nearly 3% driven by the rebound of crude oil. The national weekly operating rate decreased, and the refinery production plan in November decreased. Terminal demand was affected by weather, and the inventory decreased slightly. The market is in a tight - balance pattern [4]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG main contract rose about 1.7% led by the rebound of crude oil. The supply increased slightly this week. Chemical demand increased, while combustion demand was weak. The inventory at refineries and ports decreased, and the fundamentals improved marginally [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil price has been continuously declining recently under the influence of multiple negative factors such as the fundamentals, the macro - aspect, and geopolitical policies, suppressing the overall energy sector. Due to the key window period of Sino - US and Russia - Ukraine negotiations, macro uncertainties remain, and caution is advised [1] - The current fundamental situation of fuel oil shows a differentiation pattern where high - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than low - sulfur fuel oil. For high - sulfur fuel oil, there is some support in its structure, but the peak demand season for power generation has ended, and the market has mixed long and short factors, with limited upward driving force based on the current valuation [1] - The recent fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil are relatively weak. Supply from Africa, South America, etc. has increased, and the market supply is abundant. Under the intensifying trade disputes, the shipping and marine fuel demand face potential risks. The downstream demand for low - sulfur fuel oil is more concentrated and may be more sensitive to tariff frictions. However, the RFCC unit of Dangote refinery restarted on October 19, and the current operating rate is around 60%. The estimated low - sulfur fuel oil shipment volume from Nigeria in October is 340,000 tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons compared with the previous month. If the RFCC unit operates stably, the local supply pressure is expected to ease [2] Group 3: Strategy Summary - High - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, mainly wait - and - see in the short term [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, mainly wait - and - see in the short term [3] - There are no specific strategies for cross - varieties, cross - periods, spot - futures, options [3] Group 4: Market Analysis Summary - The main contract of fuel oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.11% at 2,647 yuan/ton during the day session. The main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.42% at 3,072 yuan/ton during the day session [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Fuel Oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor market operability, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: ☆☆☆, indicating the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor market operability, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, the global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated since September, with OPEC+ production increase and post-peak demand decline causing supply-demand pressure. However, considering the low oil price and net long positions, the downward momentum may slow this week [1]. - For fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil, the absolute price of fuel oil follows the cost side with a weakening trend. High-sulfur fuel oil has a "strong current, weak expectation" pattern, and its supply-demand will turn loose. Low-sulfur fuel oil supply remains loose [2]. - For asphalt, the contract prices rose slightly today, with开工率 decreasing, demand weaker than expected, and the market in a tight balance with price support at the bottom [3]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, the main contract oscillates narrowly, supply increases slightly, chemical demand grows while combustion demand is flat, and inventories decline [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since September, the global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, especially the in-transit crude oil inventory. In the fourth quarter, global oil inventory increased by 1.5% (crude oil inventory by 3.3% and refined oil inventory decreased by 1.3%) [1]. - OPEC+'s continuous production increase and post-peak demand decline bring supply-demand pressure, and geopolitical factors also weigh on the market [1]. - Considering the low oil price and net long positions, the downward momentum of oil prices may slow this week, and attention should be paid to the China-US and Russia-US talks [1]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil follows the cost side with a weakening trend [2]. - High-sulfur fuel oil has a "strong current, weak expectation" pattern, and its supply-demand will turn loose as geopolitical tensions ease and other factors change [2]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil supply remains loose, and the impact of the restart of the RFCG device at Dangote Refinery needs further observation [2]. Asphalt - Today, asphalt contracts rose slightly, with near-month contracts relatively stronger [3]. - The weekly national asphalt production rate decreased, demand in October is weaker than expected, and the cumulative shipment volume in mid-October increased 1 percentage point less year-on-year compared to the end of September [3]. - Social inventory is steadily decreasing, factory inventory is decreasing weakly, and the overall commercial inventory decreased slightly. The market remains in a tight balance with price support at the bottom [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The main LPG contract oscillates narrowly, with far-month contracts under pressure [3]. - This week, supply increased slightly, chemical demand grew while combustion demand was flat, and both refinery and port inventories decreased [3]. - Today, the spot price in Shandong rose while the futures price oscillated, and the basis changed from flat to a slight premium [3].

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific ratings for some commodities are as follows: - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Viewpoints - Short - term stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently reminded of interest - rate risks [1]. - Gold is supported to remain at a high level due to factors such as the US government shutdown, Sino - US trade uncertainty, and the Fed's expected rate cut in October, but short - term high - level volatility risks should be noted. Silver price has risen and then fallen again, with increased short - term high - level volatility risks [1]. - Although global trade frictions suppress copper prices, copper prices are expected to continue to run strongly due to ongoing disturbances in copper mine supply and improved domestic and foreign macro - liquidity [1]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are mixed, and its price is expected to fluctuate. Alumina production and inventory are increasing, and its fundamentals are weak, pressuring the spot price [1]. - The non - ferrous sector faces correction risks due to Sino - US trade frictions. Zinc prices are under short - term pressure, nickel prices are affected by macro factors in the short term, and stainless steel futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by various factors such as trade frictions, policies, and supply - demand relationships, showing different trends of fluctuation [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are also affected by multiple factors including production, trade policies, and market demand, with different price trends [1]. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - finance - Stock index: Short - term strong - side fluctuation, beware of tariff policy changes, focus on the possible Sino - US leaders' meeting at the end of the month [1] - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank reminds of interest - rate risks [1] - Gold: Supported at a high level, short - term high - level volatility risks [1] - Silver: Short - term high - level volatility risks increased, expected to fluctuate [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Expected to run strongly due to supply disturbances and improved liquidity [1] - Electrolytic aluminum: Mixed fundamentals, price to fluctuate [1] - Alumina: Weak fundamentals, price under pressure, focus on cost support [1] - Zinc: Short - term pressure, support if export window opens [1] - Nickel: Short - term macro - driven fluctuation, high - inventory suppression exists [1] - Stainless steel: Short - term fluctuation, pay attention to supply and macro changes [1] - Tin: Long - term low - buying opportunities, short - term facing callback risks [1] - Industrial silicon: Southwest in the wet season, northwest resuming production [1] - Polysilicon: Production increase in October, supply - demand imbalance [1] - Lithium carbonate: High demand in new energy fields [1] Black metals - Rebar: Lack of clear industrial drivers, low valuation, not recommended for directional trading [1] - Iron ore: Near - month contracts restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - Glass: Supply surplus, price under pressure [1] - Soda ash: Follow glass, price under pressure [1] - Coking coal: Price bottom - finding not over, temporarily wait and see [1] - Coke: Similar logic to coking coal [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil: Near - month contracts lack new drivers, wait for production - reduction and inventory - clearance cycle [1] - Soybean oil: Cost pressure and de - inventory expectation coexist, wait and see [1] - Rapeseed oil: Possible negative speculation, unilateral wait - and - see, inter - month positive spread expected to rise [1] - Cotton: Short - term wide - range fluctuation, long - term pressure with new cotton listing [1] - Sugar: High sugar - making ratio may be adjusted, limited upside space [1] - Corn: Short - term limited rebound, pay attention to grain sales [1] - Ethanol: Tax - included ethanol close to raw sugar price, sugar - making advantage weakened [1] - Logs: Fundamentals declined, wait and see [1] - Live pigs: Supply increase, price outlook weak [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and demand decline [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish, follow crude oil in the short term [1] - Asphalt: Supply is sufficient, demand may be over - estimated [1] - Natural rubber: Affected by trade policies and supply increase [1] - BR rubber: Supply is loose, downstream demand is weak [1] - PTA: Production decline due to plant maintenance [1] - Ethylene glycol: Low port inventory, but price under pressure [1] - Short - fiber: Factory devices returning, price - related changes in delivery willingness [1] - Urea: Limited upside space, cost - end support [1] - PVC: Supply pressure, price to fluctuate weakly [1] - Alumina: Short - term price bearish, medium - term bullish [1] - LPG: Suppressed by supply and demand factors [1] - Container shipping: Possible low - level rebound [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific energy and chemical product, the short - term outlook is mainly "oscillating" [1][3][5][6][8]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall, the current energy and chemical market is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, international policies, and crude oil price trends. Most product prices are expected to show oscillating trends, with some facing downward pressure due to factors like increased supply or geopolitical influences [1][3][5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices declined. WTI November contract closed down $0.81 to $57.46 per barrel, a 1.39% drop; Brent December contract closed down $0.85 to $61.06 per barrel, a 1.37% drop; SC2511 closed at 435.1 yuan per barrel, down 8.1 yuan per barrel, a 1.83% decline. U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels to 423.8 million barrels last week, and EIA crude oil production reached a record high of 13.64 million barrels per day. India may reduce Russian oil imports. Overall, oil prices will continue to decline under supply - demand pressure [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.94% to 2,694 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2512 rose 0.03% to 3,159 yuan per ton. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased. Short - term high - sulfur fundamentals may be slightly stronger than low - sulfur, but under the pressure of Trump's new tariffs on oil prices, the absolute prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils will oscillate weakly [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2511 rose 0.55% to 3,250 yuan per ton. This week, domestic asphalt shipments increased, but the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased. There is still some construction rush expectation after the holiday, but previous significant production increases may suppress prices. Under the pressure of Trump's new tariffs on oil prices, asphalt will oscillate weakly in the short term, with a smaller decline than crude oil and fuel oil [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures contracts all rose on Thursday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were differentiated, with an average of about 60%. PTA and EG production capacity increased, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. Polyester chain prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices in the short term, and cost reduction may stimulate polyester factories' restocking demand [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts RU2601, NR, and BR all rose. The main rubber - producing areas are in normal tapping season. The basis of the 20 - type rubber strengthened, and the inventory of downstream tire products is high. The price of natural rubber will oscillate [5]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, methanol spot prices showed different trends. The domestic supply has recovered, and overseas Iranian devices have resumed production, but future production increases are limited due to winter gas restrictions. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on methanol and short on polyolefins and the positive spread strategy between months [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, polyolefin prices showed different trends. The short - term supply will remain high, and the marginal increase in demand in October will gradually decline. With the weakening of crude oil prices, polyolefin prices will be weak [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, PVC prices in different regions showed oscillating trends. The supply remains high, domestic demand has slowed down, and exports are expected to be weak. The total inventory pressure is large, and PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on October 16 and 15, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9]. 3.3 Market News - U.S. President Trump said that Indian Prime Minister Modi promised to stop purchasing Russian crude oil, but India did not comment. Some Indian refiners are preparing to reduce Russian oil imports. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed that last week, U.S. crude oil inventories increased more than expected, and EIA crude oil production reached a record high [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [15][16][17][19][20][22][24][28][29][30]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [31][35][36][39][42][43]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [45][47][50][53][56][58]. - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It presents the spread charts between different products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, B - W spreads of crude oil, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [60][65][66][67]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the cash - flow chart of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit charts of PP and LLDPE [69][71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and relevant qualifications [75][76][77][78]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [80].

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and observing [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and observing [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices have been weak recently due to looser fundamentals and potential tariff frictions, suppressing the overall energy sector. The fundamentals of fuel oil itself have a mix of long and short factors, with limited market drivers. High-sulfur fuel oil's supply from Iran and Russia is affected by sanctions and drone attacks, and after the end of the Middle East demand peak season, fuel oil exports have room for further growth. Low-sulfur fuel oil's current fundamentals and market structure are weaker than those of high-sulfur fuel oil, with increased supply from Africa, South America, etc., and potential risks in shipping and marine fuel demand. The pressure on the low-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to ease after the restart of the Dangote refinery's RFCC unit [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - The night session of the main contract of the SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.82%, at 2,672 yuan/ton; the night session of the main contract of the INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.55%, at 3,114 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, short-term wait-and-see [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, short-term wait-and-see [3] - Cross-variety: No strategy [3] - Cross-period: No strategy [3] - Spot-futures: No strategy [3] - Options: No strategy [3] Charts - Multiple charts are provided, including those related to Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil spot prices, swap near-month contracts, near-month spreads, as well as fuel oil FU and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures' main contract closing prices, index closing prices, near-month contract prices, near-month spreads, and trading volume and open interest [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and seeing [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and seeing [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Futures-cash: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of fuel oil are currently fair, but the recent weak performance of crude oil prices due to a looser fundamental situation and potential tariff frictions is suppressing the overall energy sector [1] - Russian fuel oil supply is restricted, with expected lower high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in October. The fundamentals and market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil are weaker than those of high-sulfur fuel oil, but the pressure is expected to ease after the restart of the Dangote refinery's RFCC unit [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The night session of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.45% at 2,681 yuan/ton, while the night session of the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.06% at 3,156 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices are weak recently, suppressing the overall energy sector. The fundamentals of fuel oil are currently fair, and the market structure is supported [1] - Russian supply is restricted. Due to continuous drone attacks in Ukraine and new sanctions from the UK on October 15, Russian refinery maintenance has increased unexpectedly, and the estimated high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in October are 1.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.43 million tons from the previous month [1] - The fundamentals and market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil are weaker than those of high-sulfur fuel oil. Supply from Africa, South America, etc. has increased, and shipping and bunker fuel demand face potential risks. However, the pressure is expected to ease after the restart of the Dangote refinery's RFCC unit [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and seeing [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and seeing [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Futures-cash: None [2] - Options: None [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - International oil prices continue to show a weak downward trend due to uncertainties in China-US trade tariffs, which still disrupt global crude oil demand. The crude oil supply-demand situation remains loose. OPEC+ continues its production increase policy and has reached a principled agreement to slightly increase production again in November. From September, crude oil consumption gradually declines, with the end of the US consumption peak season marked by Labor Day in early September. Global crude oil consumption in the off - season drops by 1 - 3 million barrels per day compared to the peak season. Geopolitical tensions have eased, reducing geopolitical risks and allowing more crude oil to enter the market. Short - term oil prices are expected to remain weak. The recommended short - term operation strategy is to wait and see [3]. - The fuel oil market is under pressure from lukewarm demand and sufficient supply. Although Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased in the week ending October 8, it is expected that the inventory will rise in October due to large supplies received in Asia in September. The spot price difference of fuel oil has increased slightly, but the near - month contract of 0.5% low - sulfur fuel oil still maintains a positive price difference structure, indicating abundant immediate supply. With the expected weak performance of international oil prices, fuel oil lacks strong driving forces. The recommended short - term operation strategy is to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - **Domestic Market**: SC crude oil closed at 448.6 yuan/barrel, down 5.1 yuan or 1.12% from the previous value; FU high - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2700 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan or 1.35%; LU low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3203 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan or 0.90% [3]. - **Foreign Market**: WTI crude oil closed at $59.56 per barrel, unchanged; Brent crude oil closed at $63.39 per barrel, unchanged; Nymex gasoline closed at $1.8015 per gallon, unchanged; ICE diesel closed at $659.50 per ton, unchanged; Nymex natural gas closed at $3.101 per mmBtu, unchanged [3]. 3.2 Spread Data - **Crude Oil Spread**: SC - WTI spread was 3.60 yuan/barrel, down 0.73 yuan or 16.86%; SC - Brent spread was - 0.23 yuan/barrel, down 0.73 yuan or 144.66%; Brent - WTI spread was $3.83 per barrel, unchanged; SC monthly spread was - $1.00 per barrel, up $0.30 or - 23.08%; WTI monthly spread was $0.42 per barrel, unchanged; Brent monthly spread was $0.39 per barrel, unchanged [3]. - **Fuel Oil Spread**: FU monthly spread was 17 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 10.53%; LU monthly spread was 7 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 16.67%; FU - SC spread was - 33 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or 1.82%; LU - SC spread was 44 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 1.47%; LU - FU spread was 503 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 1.62% [3][4]. 3.3 Spot Prices - **Crude Oil**: Oman crude oil was at $65.6 per barrel, down $1.35 or 2.02%; Russian ESPO was at $60.43 per barrel, down $0.89 or 1.45%; Brent Dtd was at $67.67 per barrel, down $2.62 or 3.87% [4]. - **Fuel Oil**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil was at $377 per ton, down $8 or 2.08%; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil was at $452.5 per ton, down $10 or 2.21% [4]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **US EIA Data**: Crude oil commercial inventory was 420,261 thousand barrels, up 3,715 thousand barrels or 0.89%; gasoline inventory was 219,093 thousand barrels, down 1,601 thousand barrels or 0.73%; distillate oil inventory was 121,559 thousand barrels, down 2,018 thousand barrels or 1.63%; US production was 13,629 thousand barrels per day, up 124 thousand barrels per day or 0.92%; refined oil inventory was 44,540 thousand barrels, down 141 thousand barrels or 0.32% [4]. - **Singapore ESG Data**: Fuel oil inventory was 23,699 thousand barrels, up 314 thousand barrels or 1.34% [4]. - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: SC crude oil warehouse receipts were 5,401,000, unchanged; FU fuel oil warehouse receipts were 45,800, unchanged; LU fuel oil warehouse receipts were 13,080, unchanged [4]. 3.5 Macro and Shipping Data - **Macro Data**: The US dollar index was 99.2595, up 0.4372 or 0.44%; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.05%; the RMB/US dollar exchange rate was 7.2545, unchanged; the Baltic BDI was 2,144, up 208 or 10.74% [4]. - **Shipping Data**: The crude oil freight rate BDTI was 1,141, up 22 or 1.97%; the refined oil freight rate BCTI was 551, down 9 or 1.61% [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to continue weak and volatile. The IEA predicts a large supply surplus in the world oil market next year, with supply growth significantly outpacing demand growth, putting strong pressure on oil prices. Currently, the market faces pressure from both supply and demand sides, and the peak demand season is fading with no highlights in the downstream [1]. - Fuel oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is sufficient, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively strong, but Trump's new round of tariff hikes is pressuring oil prices [2]. - Asphalt prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term, with a smaller decline than crude oil and fuel oil. There is still some construction rush expectation after the festival, but the significant increase in previous production may suppress prices [2]. - Polyester chain prices are expected to be volatile and weak, following the movement of crude oil prices. The supply of TA and EG is in a loose pattern, and the weak sales of polyester products are observed. Pay attention to potential sudden plant overhauls under low processing fees [2]. - Rubber prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The end of the typhoon season leads to normal rubber tapping in major production areas, while the high inventory of tire finished products and tariff - disturbed demand result in a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand [4]. - Methanol prices are expected to be volatile. The domestic supply has recovered, and the Iranian Busher plant has resumed production, but future production growth is limited due to winter gas restrictions. Consider long - methanol and short - polyolefin strategies and inter - month positive spread strategies [4]. - Polyolefin prices are expected to be weak. The short - term production will remain at a high level, and although there is still support from downstream orders in October, the marginal increase will gradually decline [6]. - PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The supply remains at a high level, domestic demand is slowing down, and exports are expected to be weak due to anti - dumping policies and trade frictions. The total inventory pressure is large [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI November contract closed down $0.79 to $58.70 per barrel, a 1.33% decline; Brent December contract closed down $0.93 to $62.39 per barrel, a 1.47% decline; SC2511 closed at 444.0 yuan per barrel, down 7.8 yuan per barrel, a 1.73% decline. The IEA predicts a supply surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day in the world oil market next year, while OPEC +'s monthly report is less pessimistic [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contract of fuel oil FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.1% at 2700 yuan per ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil LU2512 closed down 1.14% at 3203 yuan per ton. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is sufficient, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively strong [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main contract of asphalt BU2511 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.6% at 3290 yuan per ton. There is a construction rush expectation after the festival, but previous production increases may suppress prices [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4440 yuan per ton on Tuesday, down 1.55%; EG2601 closed at 4061 yuan per ton, down 1.22%. The polyester chain prices are weak and volatile, and the polyester operating rate is 91% [2]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main contract of natural rubber RU2601 closed down 95 yuan per ton to 14845 yuan per ton; NR main contract closed down 50 yuan per ton to 11990 yuan per ton. In September, China's automobile production and sales increased significantly, but the supply - demand situation of rubber is unfavorable [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2285 yuan per ton. The domestic supply has recovered, and the Iranian Busher plant has resumed production, but future production growth is limited [4]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6550 - 6700 yuan per ton. The short - term production will remain high, and downstream demand growth is weakening [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the market prices of PVC in East, North, and South China continued to decline. The supply remains high, domestic demand is slowing down, and exports are expected to be weak [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on October 15, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc., covering spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The IEA predicts a large supply surplus in the world oil market next year, while OPEC +'s view is less pessimistic. Oil industry executives expect the global oil market to tighten in the medium - to - long - term [10]. - A preliminary survey shows that US crude oil inventories are estimated to have increased last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories may have declined. The release of inventory reports by API and EIA has been postponed [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [12] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as the basis of crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [28] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various products, like the spread between fuel oil contracts 01 - 05 and 09 - 01 [43] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread charts of different varieties, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc. [64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of some products, such as the cash flow of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit of PP [71]