Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core Views Macro and Financial Futures - Domestic supportive policies are gradually taking effect. In September, policies to promote service consumption will be the focus, which will support the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods to some extent, but the actual effect remains to be seen. Policies in the real - estate sector are advancing, but their impact on the overall market may be limited. The profitability of industrial enterprises has not been fundamentally improved. Overseas, the US economy and employment have shown resilience, and key economic data next week should be closely monitored [2]. - The core issue of the RMB exchange rate is the timing and pace of appreciation. In the short - term, the RMB is likely to appreciate, and the market may reach a "triple - price integration" pattern around 7.10. In the medium - term, the RMB needs a clear downward trend of the US dollar index and substantial positive changes in the domestic economy to achieve a trend - strengthening [4][5]. - As the 9.3 parade approaches, the stock index is expected to have increased volatility. The stock market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, while the bond market may expand its rebound space if the stock market experiences a high - level adjustment after September 3 [7][8]. Commodities Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and strong in the short - term. The focus should be on US economic data this week, and the strategy is to buy on dips [12][15]. - Copper is expected to oscillate before the Fed's next interest - rate decision on September 19, with a mid - term strategy of low - level procurement [16][17]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, with a price range of 20,500 - 21,000. Alumina is expected to be weakly volatile, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish [20][21]. - Zinc is expected to be strongly oscillating at the bottom in the short - term [23][24]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices rose under the influence of the Indonesian riot and strike. The short - term trend remains to be seen, depending on the development of the situation in Indonesia [24][25]. - Tin is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term due to tight supply [26]. - The lithium carbonate market is in an adjustment phase. If downstream demand is released, prices may be supported; otherwise, it may remain weakly volatile [26][28]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to rise in an oscillatory manner. The rise of polysilicon is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a possible storage platform in September [29]. - Lead is expected to oscillate within a narrow range, with limited upside and downside [30]. Black Metals - Steel products continue to accumulate inventory beyond the seasonal norm. If demand does not improve, the downward space of the steel futures market depends on the tolerance of steel mills for profit shrinkage. Short - sellers can consider reducing positions to take profits [32][33]. - Iron ore prices have released risks. After the short - term risk release, short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. - Coking coal may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillatory pattern in the short - term. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade. Unilateral speculation on short - selling coking coal is not recommended for now [37]. - Silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to oscillate at the bottom. It is advisable to go long on the spread between the two when the spread reaches - 400 [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is currently oscillating weakly. In September, the demand decline is a definite negative factor, and the market needs to wait for key events to clarify the direction. The overall outlook is bearish [42][43]. - Propylene's spot market is strong, and the futures market is oscillating. The northern market is tighter than the southern market [44][45]. - PX - TA's market is mainly characterized by structural contradictions. The overall pattern is "tight at the top and loose at the bottom," and the processing fee of PTA01 is recommended to be compressed when it is above 350 [46][49]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate between 4330 - 4550, and it is advisable to go long on dips [53]. - PP's supply is increasing, and the demand situation is unclear. Its future trend depends on whether downstream demand can maintain high - speed growth [54][55]. - PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly. It is expected to oscillate for now [56][57]. - PVC's price has returned to the industrial fundamentals. With high inventory and weak demand, it is advisable to short - allocate it [58][59]. - Pure benzene is expected to be weakly oscillating, and for benzene - styrene, short - selling on the short - term single - side is not recommended. Wait for the end of the decline and then consider low - buying [60][61]. - Fuel oil has a weak rebound driven by cost, but the downward pressure remains. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows cost fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait for long - allocation opportunities [63][64]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate and strengthen, mainly following cost fluctuations. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance [65][66]. - Urea is in a stalemate. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Financial Futures Market Information - China's September 3 parade will last about 70 minutes. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization's Tianjin Summit has achieved eight results. There are various tariff - related news, including Trump's remarks on India's tariffs and possible US housing policies. There are also speculations about Fed officials' appointments [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1332, down 2 basis points, and the night - session was at 7.1375. The central parity rate was 7.1072, down 42 basis points. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August showed expansion [3]. Stock Index - The stock index rose with reduced volume yesterday. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed up 0.60%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 483.37 billion yuan. The futures of stock index also rose with reduced volume. The 9.3 parade is approaching, and key economic data have been released [7]. Bond - Bond futures opened low and closed high on Monday. The yields of medium - and long - term bonds declined. The funding situation was loose, and DR001 dropped to 1.31%. Relevant policies and the end of the summer travel season have been reported [8]. Container Shipping - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) opened high and then oscillated. Spot prices of some shipping companies have changed. The Houthi armed forces' remarks have affected the market sentiment. The current market is in the off - season, and the SCFIS European line index has continued to decline [10][11]. Commodities Metals Gold and Silver - On Monday, the precious metals market continued to be strong. COMEX gold closed up 0.84% at 3545.8 dollars per ounce, and silver closed up 2.46% at 41.725 dollars per ounce. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and fund positions are stable. Key US economic data and events this week should be monitored [12][15]. Copper - The Shanghai copper index was slightly bullish on Monday. Chile's copper production in July increased slightly. The collapse of a copper mine in July and the reduction of production guidance in August have affected the market. The key factors affecting copper prices are complex, with both bullish and bearish factors in the short - to - medium - term [16][17]. Aluminum and Related Products - The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy have changed. The macro - environment is favorable for aluminum prices. The fundamentals of alumina are weak, and the supply of cast aluminum alloy may be affected by tax policies [19][22]. Zinc - The zinc price opened high and closed low. The supply is in an oversupply state, and the demand is stable. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the trading strategy of selling the outer market and buying the inner market can be considered [23][24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The price of nickel rose, and stainless steel fell slightly. The spot prices of nickel - related products have changed. The market was affected by the Indonesian riot and strike, and the supply uncertainty has increased [24][25]. Tin - The Shanghai tin index slightly declined on Monday. Yunnan Tin's equipment maintenance and the decrease in refined tin production in August have affected the market. The short - term price may rise slightly due to tight supply [26]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fell on Monday. The prices of lithium - related products in the spot market have declined. The supply has no new news, and the demand has marginal improvement expectations, but the increase in warehouse receipts may suppress the short - term price [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon rose on Monday. The prices of related products in the spot market are stable. The rise of polysilicon is affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a storage platform [26][29]. Lead - The lead price oscillated narrowly. The supply side is weak, and the demand is in a "peak - season not prosperous" situation. The domestic inventory is oscillating, and the LME inventory is high [30]. Black Metals Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The production of Tangshan's blast furnaces has been affected by inspections, and most are expected to resume production on September 4. The steel market is in a state of over - seasonal inventory accumulation, and the demand has not shown significant seasonal strength [32][33]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore fell and then rebounded. The global iron ore shipment volume in late August increased. The market is worried about the insufficient demand in the peak season, and short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke declined. The prices of coking coal in some regions have decreased. The downstream's replenishment of raw materials has slowed down, and the supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade [36][37]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - The production and demand of silicon iron and silicon manganese have changed. The market was affected by the pre - parade steel mill restrictions and the decline of the "anti - involution" hype. The prices have fallen back, and the bottom support exists, but the upside is also under pressure [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The prices of US and Brent crude oil rose. There are news about the suspension of oil sales to an Indian refinery, the change in Shandong refineries' crude oil arrivals, and the expectation of OPEC+ to maintain production. The oil market is currently oscillating weakly, and the September demand decline is a negative factor [41][43]. Propylene - The futures prices of propylene rose slightly. The spot prices in different regions have changed. The supply and demand of propylene and its downstream products have changed. The spot market is tight, and the price is affected by multiple factors [44][45]. PTA - PX - The load of PX and PTA plants has changed. The supply of PX in September is expected to increase, and the PTA supply has decreased. The polyester demand has a marginal improvement, but the peak - season performance is not super - expected [46][48]. MEG - Bottle Chip - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports decreased. The supply and demand of ethylene glycol and related products have changed. The market is currently in a state of limited drive, and the price is expected to oscillate [50][53]. PP - The futures price of polypropylene decreased. The supply has increased, and the demand has shown a recovery trend. The inventory has decreased. The market is affected by new device production and the uncertainty of demand [54][55]. PE - The futures price of polyethylene decreased. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand has increased. The inventory has decreased. The current demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly [56][57]. PVC - The production of PVC in August and September is estimated. The demand is weak, and the export has changed. The inventory is accumulating, and the price has returned to the industrial fundamentals [58][59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures decreased. The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in ports has increased. The supply and demand of both have changed, and the prices are expected to be volatile [60][61]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil rebounded weakly. The supply and demand of fuel oil have changed. The export in August decreased, and the demand is mixed. The market is still under pressure [62][63]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The price of low - sulfur fuel oil is mainly following cost fluctuations. The supply and demand and inventory of low - sulfur fuel oil have changed. The valuation is low, and it is advisable to wait for long - allocation opportunities [64]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt rose. The supply and demand and inventory of asphalt have changed. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance, and it mainly follows cost fluctuations [65][66]. Urea - The futures price of urea is in a stalemate. The spot price is stable, and the demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, the ratings are as follows: - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Asphalt: Oscillating [3] - Polyester: Oscillating [3] - Rubber: Oscillating [5] - Methanol: Oscillating, with a bias towards strength [5] - Polyolefins: Oscillating [6] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC): Oscillating, with a bias towards weakness [6] Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical commodities on September 2, 2025. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand dynamics, and cost - end fluctuations to provide views on price trends for each commodity. For example, due to geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and the Russia - Ukraine situation, the oil market's geopolitical pricing may rise again, and oil prices can be considered from a rebound perspective [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Monday, Brent's new November contract rose 0.67 dollars to 68.15 dollars per barrel, a 0.99% increase. SC2510 closed at 488.9 yuan per barrel, up 5.3 yuan or 1.10%. Geopolitical factors such as the possible suspension of diplomatic efforts and the Red Sea missile incident may lead to a rebound in oil prices [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2510) rose 0.25% to 2832 yuan per ton, while the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2511) fell 0.49% to 3474 yuan per ton. The expected reduction in Western arbitrage cargo inflows in September may boost the fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil, but overall demand for both high - and low - sulfur fuel oil lacks significant highlights [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt (BU2510) rose 1% to 3540 yuan per ton. In September, the demand for road construction in the north increases, but the rise in supply in North China and Northeast China may limit price increases. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease, and prices may rise further [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4772 yuan per ton, down 0.25%. EG2601 closed at 4427 yuan per ton, down 0.87%. PX supply is high, and downstream TA maintenance volume is increasing. TA prices are expected to be supported and oscillate. Ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate with a bias towards strength due to supply reduction and demand increase [3][4]. - **Rubber**: The main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) remained unchanged at 15860 yuan per ton, while the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 15 yuan to 12680 yuan per ton. Supply weather is favorable, raw material prices fluctuate slightly, demand is stable domestically and weak overseas, and inventory is slightly decreasing. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Methanol**: Due to the recovery of profits, MTO devices may resume production. In September, supply growth is limited, demand is expected to pick up, and inventory is expected to peak. Methanol prices are expected to enter a phased bottom area [5]. - **Polyolefins**: In September, supply and demand are both strong, inventory is gradually transferred from society to downstream, and fundamentals have few contradictions. Polyolefin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [6]. - **Polyvinyl chloride (PVC)**: Real - estate construction recovery is weak, and demand for PVC downstream products is limited. With India's higher anti - dumping duties, exports are expected to decline. PVC prices in September are expected to oscillate with a bias towards weakness [6]. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis of various energy and chemical products, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [7]. Market News - Trump is considering suspending diplomatic efforts until more flexibility is shown. Europe is trying to persuade Zelensky to wait for better conditions, which may disrupt the progress made since the Russia - US summit. The EU is formulating a plan to deploy multinational forces to Ukraine [10]. - Despite US pressure, Russia remains India's largest crude oil supplier, accounting for 31.4% of India's crude oil imports in July [10]. Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents line charts of the closing prices of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][13][14] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows line charts of the basis of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [27][28][29] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides line charts of spreads between different contracts for various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [42][43][44] - **4.4 Inter - commodity Spreads**: It presents line charts of spreads between different commodities, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [58][59][60] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows line charts of production profits for some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [67][68][69] Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [73][74][75]

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report - Report Date: August 31, 2025 - Analyst: Liang Kefang - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0019111 - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Report Core View - This week, fuel oil prices rose significantly at the beginning of the week but quickly fell as delivery issues were resolved. Overseas, Middle Eastern high-sulfur fuel oil exports remained high in August, and the high-sulfur market in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to be weak in the short term due to weak power generation and refining demand, with low import volumes in the Middle East and China. Only the fact that Russia's export volume has not significantly recovered provides some support for the valuation. Domestically, the issue of the delivery warehouse being sanctioned has been resolved with a significant increase in on - exchange warehouse receipts, which will continue to suppress the FU futures price. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the Asia - Pacific spot market is still abundant. Kuwait and Indonesia have increased their exports of low - sulfur fuel oil to the Asia - Pacific this month, and Japanese refineries are gradually resuming production, increasing spot supply and suppressing spot prices. Domestically, the newly issued export quota is the core factor affecting the futures price trend. If the quota is too low, it may support short - term prices; if the quota increases significantly year - on - year, it means that future port spot supply will be abundant, and the price of near - month contracts will continue to be suppressed. - Valuation: FU is valued at 2750 - 3000, and LU is valued at 3400 - 3600. - Strategy: - Unilateral: FU will continue to be weak in the short term, and LU will fluctuate in a narrow range. - Inter - period: The near - term spread of FU may continue to decline; LU will maintain its current structure. - Inter - variety: The crack spread of FU has fallen to the historical average and may rise in the future; the LU - FU spread will remain high in the short term. [4] Summary by Directory Supply - Refinery Operation: The report presents the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil atmospheric and vacuum distillation units), independent refineries, and major refineries from 2016 - 2025 through charts. - Global Refinery Maintenance: It shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU units, hydrocracking units, FCC units, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 through charts. - Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume: The report shows the monthly production of fuel oil in China, the monthly production of low - sulfur fuel oil by Chinese refineries, and the monthly domestic commercial volume of fuel oil from 2018 - 2025 through charts. [6][8][19] Demand - Domestic and Overseas Fuel Oil Demand Data: The report presents the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales volume of fuel oil bunkering in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 through charts. [22] Inventory - Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory: The report shows the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025 through charts. [25] Price and Spread - Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Price: It presents the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, and 3.5% fuel oil in the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2025 through charts. - European Regional Spot FOB Price: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high - sulfur fuel oil cargo in New York Harbor, 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and low - sulfur straight - run fuel oil in USAC from 2018 - 2025 through charts. - US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Price: The report provides relevant price data through charts. - Paper and Derivative Prices: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil swaps, and Singapore 380 bunker fuel swaps, as well as the prices of FU and LU futures contracts from 2021 - 2025 through charts. - Fuel Oil Spot Spread: It presents the viscosity spread and high - low sulfur spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2025 through charts. - Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread: It shows the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025 through charts. - Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread: It presents the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2022 - 2025 through charts. [33][37][45][47][57][59][64] Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: The report shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 through charts. - Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It presents the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions through charts. - Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It shows the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions through charts. [68][73][75] Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - The report provides the internal - external spreads of 380 - grade and 0.5% fuel oil spot, as well as the internal - external spreads between FU and LU futures contracts and Singapore fuel oil from August 25 - 29, 2025. It also shows the historical internal - external spreads of different fuel oil products through charts. Additionally, it presents the changes in the trading volume and open interest of FU and LU, as well as the changes in the number of warehouse receipts through charts. [79][83][89]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable. It's a good opportunity for left - hand side layout, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] Summary by Categories Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.46, or 0.72%, to $64.32; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.47, or 0.69%, to $68.27; INE main crude oil futures rose 0.60 yuan, or 0.13%, to 473 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 1.67 million barrels to 13.49 million barrels, a 11.01% decline; diesel inventory decreased by 0.37 million barrels to 9.33 million barrels, a 3.77% decline; fuel oil inventory increased by 1.69 million barrels to 24.72 million barrels, a 7.33% increase; total refined oil inventory decreased by 0.35 million barrels to 47.54 million barrels, a 0.72% decline [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 28, the 01 contract rose 1 yuan/ton to 2373 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 18 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 141 [4] - **Supply**: Domestic production has further recovered, with enterprise profits remaining at a medium - high level. There is still room for production to increase, and supply is gradually rising. Imports have increased, and port inventory has accumulated to a high level [4] - **Demand**: Port MTO profits have continued to improve, but demand is weak. Traditional demand has not improved significantly, and overall downstream performance is average [4] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 28, the 01 contract rose 16 yuan/ton to 1753 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 53 [6] - **Supply**: More plants are under maintenance, domestic production has declined, and daily output has fallen below 18.5 tons. Short - term supply pressure has eased, and enterprise profits are at a medium - low level [6] - **Demand**: Compound fertilizer production has peaked and declined, and domestic agricultural demand has entered the off - season. Exports have increased, and port inventory has risen rapidly. Current demand is mainly concentrated in exports [6] - **Inventory**: Although domestic supply has decreased, demand is weak, and enterprise inventory has increased and remains at a high level year - on - year [6] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to focus on going long on dips as the downside space is limited [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated and consolidated [9] - **Bullish Factors**: Southeast Asian weather and rubber forest conditions may limit supply; rubber usually rises in the second half of the year; China's demand is expected to improve [10] - **Bearish Factors**: Macroeconomic expectations are uncertain; demand is in the seasonal off - season; the positive impact on supply may be less than expected [10] - **Industry Situation**: As of August 28, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.78%, down 1.76 percentage points from last week but up 3.95 percentage points from the same period last year. All - steel tire exports are good. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.57%, up 0.19 percentage points from last week but down 4.06 percentage points from the same period last year. The downstream inventory of semi - steel tire factories is slow to consume [11] - **Inventory**: As of August 18, 2024, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.217 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons or 0.34% from the previous period. As of August 24, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 477,000 (- 84,000) tons [11] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14,800 (+ 100) yuan; STR20 was reported at 1,825 (+ 15) dollars; STR20 mixed was 1,825 (+ 20) dollars; Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 9,350 (+ 50) yuan; North China butadiene rubber was 11,700 (0) yuan [12] - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - term bullish view. In the short term, expect the rubber price to fluctuate, and use a neutral - to - bullish approach, going long on dips and exiting quickly. Partially close the position of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [13] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 3 yuan to 4,946 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,700 (- 10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 246 (- 7) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 151 (- 4) yuan/ton [13] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2,350 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 660 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene was 840 (0) dollars/ton. The cost remained stable, and the spot price of caustic soda was 870 (0) yuan/ton [13] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall operating rate of PVC was 77.6%, a 2.7% decline. The downstream operating rate was 42.7%, a 0.1% decline. Factory inventory was 306,000 tons (- 21,000), and social inventory was 853,000 tons (+ 41,000) [13] - **Strategy**: In the current situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [13] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Both spot and futures prices fell, and the basis weakened [15] - **Analysis**: The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with significant upward adjustment potential. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the operating rate of styrene has been rising. Port inventory has been increasing significantly [15] - **Fundamentals**: The price of pure benzene in East China was 5,965 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the spot price of styrene was 7,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active contract of styrene was 7,164 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton; the basis was 36 yuan/ton, a weakening of 44 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 152.62 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.62 yuan/ton [16] - **Strategy**: In the long term, the BZN spread may be adjusted. When the inventory starts to decline, the styrene price may rebound [16] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [18] - **Analysis**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and cost support remains. The spot price of polyethylene is stable, and the downward valuation space is limited. Overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the seasonal peak season may be approaching, with demand for agricultural film raw materials starting to build up inventory [18] - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the main contract was 7,364 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton; the spot price was 7,325 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 39 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 38 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 80.24%, a 0.25% increase. Production enterprise inventory was 427,000 tons, a decrease of 74,900 tons; trader inventory was 59,800 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons [18] - **Strategy**: In the long term, the downward trend dominated by cost factors may shift, and the polyethylene price may fluctuate upward [18] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [19] - **Analysis**: The integrated plant of CNOOC Daxie Petrochemical has been put into operation, and propylene supply has gradually recovered. The downstream operating rate is fluctuating at a low level. In August, there are only 450,000 tons of planned production capacity to be put into operation. Although the seasonal peak season may be approaching, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions [19] - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the main contract was 7,021 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the spot price was 7,045 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the basis was 24 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 20 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.11%, a 0.2% increase. Production enterprise inventory was 538,500 tons, a decrease of 33,800 tons; trader inventory was 168,200 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons; port inventory was 60,300 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons [19] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [19] Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract fell 54 yuan to 6,886 yuan, and PX CFR fell 5 dollars to 849 dollars. The basis was 68 yuan (+ 9), and the 11 - 1 spread was 58 yuan (- 22) [21] - **Supply and Demand**: China's PX operating rate was 84.6%, a 0.3% increase; Asia's operating rate was 76.3%, a 2.2% increase. Some overseas plants have restarted. The PTA operating rate was 70.4%, a 2.5% decrease [21] - **Inventory**: In mid - and early August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 294,000 tons, an increase of 55,000 tons year - on - year. At the end of June, inventory was 4.138 million tons, a decrease of 210,000 tons month - on - month [21] - **Valuation and Cost**: PXN was 264 dollars (0), and the naphtha crack spread was 98 dollars (- 13) [21] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the rise of crude oil during the peak season [22] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract fell 32 yuan to 4,792 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 60 yuan/ton to 4,775 yuan. The basis was - 24 yuan (- 6), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 56 yuan (- 16) [23] - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA operating rate was 70.4%, a 2.5% decrease. Some plants have undergone maintenance or unexpected shutdowns, and some new plants have been put into operation. The downstream operating rate was 89.9%, a 0.1% decrease [23] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.2 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons [23] - **Valuation and Cost**: The spot processing fee of PTA fell 30 yuan to 213 yuan, and the futures processing fee fell 11 yuan to 313 yuan [23] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the rise of PX during the peak season [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 16 yuan to 4,465 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 26 yuan to 4,527 yuan. The basis was 66 yuan (+ 5), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 41 yuan (+ 5) [24] - **Supply and Demand**: The ethylene glycol operating rate was 75.1%, a 2.7% increase. Some plants at home and abroad have restarted or adjusted their loads. The downstream operating rate was 89.9%, a 0.1% decrease [24] - **Inventory**: The port inventory was 500,000 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons. The import forecast was 54,000 tons, and the East China departure volume on August 27 was 10,000 tons [24] - **Valuation and Cost**: The naphtha - based production profit was - 356 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 581 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 1,104 yuan. The cost of ethylene increased to 842 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines decreased to 520 yuan [24] - **Strategy**: In the medium term, port inventory may enter an accumulation cycle, and there is downward pressure on valuation [24]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical uncertainty persists, and the market fluctuates. The fuel oil futures show a short - term upward trend due to the short - term strengthening of the oil market sentiment, but the upside space of oil prices is limited considering geopolitical and macro uncertainties and the expected future loosening of the crude oil balance sheet [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil is in the stage of structural adjustment and market re - balancing. The supply pressure has eased, but the upward driving force is not obvious. After the peak consumption season for power generation, it will face the pressure of increased Middle East exports. The FU valuation has been repaired, but new warehouse receipts and price differentials still face resistance [1]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil currently has limited market pressure, with low domestic production and a tightening overseas supply trend. In the medium - term, it faces the contradiction of demand share substitution and excess capacity, so the upward resistance is also large [1]. - Both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short - term and face crude - oil - end suppression in the medium - term [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.07% at 2,880 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.23% at 3,529 yuan/ton [1]. - The limited progress in Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the dovish signals from Powell last week strengthened the short - term sentiment in the oil market, driving the rebound of energy - sector commodities. However, the upside space of oil prices is limited [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: The supply pressure has eased, but the upward driving force is not obvious. After the power - generation consumption peak season, it will face the pressure of increased Middle East exports. The FU valuation has been repaired, but 26,600 tons of new warehouse receipts were registered, and price differentials still face resistance [1]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The current market pressure is limited, with low domestic production and a tightening overseas supply trend. In the medium - term, it faces the contradiction of demand share substitution and excess capacity [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Volatile and slightly strong in the short - term, facing crude - oil - end suppression in the medium - term [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Volatile and slightly strong in the short - term, facing crude - oil - end suppression in the medium - term [2]. - Cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options: No specific strategies are provided [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC, and provides short - term price trend views for each product, mostly indicating an oscillatory trend [1][2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices declined. WTI October contract closed down $1.55 to $63.25 per barrel, a 2.39% drop; Brent October contract closed down $1.58 to $67.22 per barrel, a 2.3% drop; SC2510 closed at 486.8 yuan per barrel, down 10.9 yuan or 2.19%. Due to the US tariff increase on Indian goods, Indian refineries are expected to reduce Russian oil purchases. In October, India's Russian oil imports will be 400,000 barrels per day lower than the Q1 average, a 22% decrease. API data showed a decline in US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week. Domestic refined oil retail prices were lowered. The current oil price is oscillating [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the SHFE declined. Affected by US sanctions on Iran and low valuations, FU rose strongly this week. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakened due to concerns about abundant arbitrage cargo supply and weak demand. High - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure will persist. Currently, FU is highly volatile and is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Asphalt**: In August, asphalt demand was lower than expected due to capital recovery and rainy weather. In September, demand is expected to increase in both northern and southern markets. Refineries with crude oil quotas have good profit margins, and production is expected to be stable. With a slight rebound in oil prices, the absolute price of BU has increased slightly. Attention should be paid to the actual demand fulfillment [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed up 0.16% at 4870 yuan per ton; EG2601 closed down 0.42% at 4490 yuan per ton. PX futures rose 0.34%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant is under maintenance. Demand improvement and supply contraction bring positive support, and PX and TA still have room for growth. High ethylene glycol operating load and low port inventory are favorable for its price [4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts showed mixed trends. Thailand's natural rubber exports in July increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The 13th typhoon affected production areas, and raw material prices were firm. Tire exports increased, providing demand support. The fundamentals are strong, and short - term rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly. There are maintenance plans for butadiene rubber plants in September and October, and butadiene prices are expected to oscillate strongly [4][6]. - **Methanol**: Domestic plant maintenance has led to a short - term low in supply, which will gradually recover. Iranian plants have high operating loads, and short - term arrivals will remain high but may decrease in the long term. The MTO plant load in East China is not high, and port inventories will increase. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The production profit margins of various polyolefin production methods vary. Supply will remain high, and downstream demand is currently low but is expected to improve with the approaching peak season. Overall, polyolefins are moving towards a situation of strong supply and demand, and prices will oscillate narrowly [6][7]. - **PVC**: The PVC market prices in different regions showed different trends on Tuesday. Domestic real estate construction is stabilizing, and demand for pipes and profiles is expected to increase. Supply remains high, exports will weaken due to Indian anti - dumping policies. PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of multiple energy and chemical products on August 27, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [8]. 3.3 Market News - The US plans to double the tariff on Indian goods to 50% from Wednesday, which is expected to reduce India's recent purchases of Russian oil. In October, India's Russian oil imports will be 400,000 barrels per day lower than the Q1 average [10]. - API data shows that US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories declined last week [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and paraxylene [12][14][16][18][20][21]. - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [25][27][31][33][36][37]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [39][41][44][47][49][52][55]. - **Inter - product Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [57][61][59][63]. - **Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [65][67]. 3.5 Team Members Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won multiple industry awards [70]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, has won multiple industry awards [71]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, has won industry - related honors [72]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in energy and chemical spot - futures trading [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain good. The view of over - allocating crude oil from last week is maintained, but it is not advisable to chase the high at the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term for single - side trading, and pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage opportunities after the improvement of supply and demand [4] - For urea, it is recommended to pay attention to going long at low prices as the price downside is limited [6] - For rubber, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate strongly, and a moderately long - biased approach with short - term trading is advisable. Part of the "long RU2601 and short RU2509" position can be closed [11] - For PVC, due to the weak supply - demand and high valuation situation, it is recommended to wait and see [11] - For benzene - ethylene, when the inventory destocking inflection point appears, the benzene - ethylene price may rebound [15] - For polyethylene, the price may fluctuate upward in the long - term [17] - For polypropylene, it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [18] - For PX, it is recommended to follow the crude oil and go long at low prices when the peak season comes [21] - For PTA, it is recommended to follow PX and go long at low prices after the peak - season downstream performance improves [22] - For ethylene glycol, although there is short - term support, there is downward pressure on the medium - term valuation [23] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.97, or 1.52%, to $64.74; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.95, or 1.40%, to $68.74; INE main crude oil futures fell 1.40 yuan, or 0.29%, to 485.6 yuan [1] - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data showed that the crude oil arrival inventory decreased by 0.43 million barrels to 209.84 million barrels, a 0.21% decrease; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 1.51 million barrels to 88.63 million barrels, a 1.68% decrease; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.59 million barrels to 105.18 million barrels, a 0.56% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 0.92 million barrels to 193.81 million barrels, a 0.47% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 25, the 01 contract rose 19 yuan/ton to 2424 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 5 yuan/ton with a basis of - 124 [4] - **Fundamentals**: Coal prices continued to rise, costs increased, enterprise profits were still good, domestic production started to recover, and supply increased marginally. Overseas plant operations returned to medium - high levels, and subsequent imports would also rebound rapidly. The port MTO plants stopped operating and were expected to resume at the end of the month. Traditional demand was currently weak. Although the market had expectations for the peak season and MTO resumption, port inventory was rising rapidly [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 25, the 01 contract rose 6 yuan/ton to 1745 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 30 yuan/ton with a basis of - 55 [6] - **Fundamentals**: The daily output was at a high level, enterprise profits were at a low level, and supply pressure remained. The compound fertilizer production start - up rate declined, the melamine production start - up rate dropped to a year - on - year low, and agricultural demand entered the off - season. Domestic demand lacked support as a whole, but exports continued to progress, and port inventory increased again. The main demand variable was exports [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded following the collective rebound of industrial products [8] - **Fundamentals**: The long side believed that the weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, might help increase rubber production to a limited extent; the seasonal pattern usually showed an upward trend in the second half of the year; and China's demand was expected to improve. The short side believed that the macro - economic outlook was uncertain, demand was in the seasonal off - season, and the positive impact on supply might be less than expected [9] - **Industry Conditions**: As of August 21, 2025, the full - steel tire production start - up rate in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, up 1.47 percentage points from last week and 6.25 percentage points from the same period last year. The semi - steel tire production start - up rate of domestic tire enterprises was 74.38%, up 2.13 percentage points from last week and down 4.28 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a 1.1 - ton decrease or 0.85% decline; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 79.7 tons, a 0.8% decrease; the total inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 48 tons, a 0.8% decrease; the RU inventory increased by 1%. As of August 17, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 48.54 (- 0.18) tons [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14,850 (+ 250) yuan; STR20 was reported at 1,830 (+ 30) dollars; STR20 mixed was 1,830 (+ 30) dollars; butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9,400 (+ 100) yuan; and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11,600 (+ 100) yuan [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 28 yuan to 5,047 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4,770 (+ 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 277 (+ 2) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 154 (- 13) yuan/ton [11] - **Fundamentals**: On the cost side, the carbide price in Wuhai was 2,300 (+ 40) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke price was 660 (+ 30) yuan/ton, and the ethylene price was 830 (0) dollars/ton. The caustic soda spot price was 860 (+ 10) yuan/ton. The overall PVC production start - up rate was 77.6%, a 2.7% decrease; the calcium - carbide method production start - up rate was 76.8%, a 3.2% decrease; the ethylene method production start - up rate was 79.6%, a 1.7% decrease. The overall downstream production start - up rate was 42.7%, a 0.1% decrease. The in - factory inventory was 30.6 tons (- 2.1), and the social inventory was 85.3 tons (+ 4.1). Enterprises' comprehensive profits were at a high level this year, the valuation pressure was large, the maintenance volume was small, and the output was at a historical high. In the short - term, multiple plants were put into operation. Downstream, the domestic production start - up rate was at a five - year low. In terms of exports, after the anti - dumping tax rate in India was determined, the export outlook weakened. The cost of carbide fluctuated, and caustic soda was strong, so the overall valuation support was weak [11] Benzene - Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price of benzene - ethylene both decreased, and the basis weakened [13][15] - **Fundamentals**: The market's macro - economic sentiment was good, and there was still support on the cost side. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with a large upward adjustment space. On the cost side, the pure - benzene production start - up rate fluctuated moderately, and the supply was still abundant. On the supply side, the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, but the benzene - ethylene production start - up rate continued to rise. The benzene - ethylene port inventory continued to increase significantly. At the end of the off - season, the overall production start - up rate of the three S products on the demand side fluctuated upward [13][15] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene rose [17] - **Fundamentals**: The market was expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there was still support on the cost side. The polyethylene spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation had limited downward space. The overall inventory decreased from a high level, providing support for the price. The seasonal peak season was approaching, and the raw material procurement for agricultural films on the demand side had started. The overall production start - up rate fluctuated at a low level and stabilized [17] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene rose [18] - **Fundamentals**: The profit of Shandong refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the production start - up rate was expected to gradually recover, leading to a marginal increase in propylene supply. On the demand side, the downstream production start - up rate fluctuated at a low level. In August, there were only 450,000 tons of planned polypropylene production capacity to be put into operation. Although the seasonal peak season might be approaching, under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure was high, and there was no prominent short - term contradiction [18] PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 4 yuan to 6,970 yuan, the PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 859 dollars, the basis was 76 yuan (- 3), and the 11 - 1 spread was 68 yuan (+ 2) [20] - **Fundamentals**: In terms of PX load, China's load was 84.6%, up 0.3%; Asia's load was 76.3%, up 2.2%. There were few changes in domestic plants, while overseas, a 530,000 - ton plant in Thailand and a 1.34 - million - ton plant in Saudi Arabia restarted. The PTA load was 72.9%, down 3.5%. In terms of plants, Jiayuan reduced its load and then recovered, Jiaxing Petrochemical's extended - maintenance plant was restarting, Hainan Yisheng was under maintenance, Hengli Huizhou had an unplanned shutdown, and the second line of Hailun Petrochemical was put into operation. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 294,000 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of August, a year - on - year increase of 55,000 tons. The inventory at the end of June was 4.138 million tons, a 210,000 - ton decrease from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 270 dollars (0), and the naphtha cracking spread was 94 dollars (+ 6). Currently, the PX load remained at a high level, and there were many short - term unexpected maintenance situations for downstream PTA, so the overall load center was relatively low. However, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX was expected to maintain low inventory, and there was support for the valuation at the lower end. Moreover, the terminal and polyester data were gradually improving, releasing the upstream valuation space. The current valuation was at a neutral level, and the terminal and polyester sectors were expected to continue to recover [20] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract fell 6 yuan to 4,862 yuan, the East China spot price fell 20 yuan/ton to 4,850 yuan, the basis was 22 yuan (0), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 34 yuan (- 14) [22] - **Fundamentals**: The PTA load was 72.9%, down 3.5%. In terms of plants, Jiayuan reduced its load and then recovered, Jiaxing Petrochemical's extended - maintenance plant was restarting, Hainan Yisheng was under maintenance, Hengli Huizhou had an unplanned shutdown, and the second line of Hailun Petrochemical was put into operation. The downstream load was 90%, up 0.6%. In terms of plants, the load of some local plants increased. The terminal texturing load increased by 7% to 79%, and the loom load increased by 5% to 68%. As of August 15, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.25 million tons, a 23,000 - ton decrease. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee fell 20 yuan to 228 yuan, and the futures processing fee fell 7 yuan to 334 yuan. In the future, on the supply side, the unexpected maintenance volume in August increased, and the inventory - building pattern changed to inventory - reduction. The PTA processing fee was expected to continue to recover. On the demand side, the inventory pressure of polyester fibers decreased, and the downstream and terminal production start - up rates improved, releasing the upstream valuation space. In terms of valuation, PXN had the momentum to rise supported by the improved situation brought about by PTA commissioning. Recently, the valuation expanded due to the boost from unexpected PTA maintenance. It was recommended to follow PX and go long at low prices after the peak - season downstream performance improved [22] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract rose 35 yuan to 4,509 yuan, the East China spot price rose 24 yuan to 4,542 yuan, the basis was 98 yuan (+ 6), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 59 yuan (- 5) [23] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the ethylene glycol load was 73.2%, up 6.2%. Among them, the synthetic - gas - based production load was 81.3%, up 0.8%; the ethylene - based production load was 68.3%, up 9.4%. In terms of synthetic - gas - based plants, Tianying restarted, Jianyuan reduced its load, Guanghui, Meijin, and Sinochem increased their loads, and Shaanxi Weihua was under maintenance. In the oil - chemical sector, one of Shenghong's plants restarted, and Zhejiang Petrochemical increased its load. Overseas, Lotte in the United States and Petronas in Malaysia restarted. The downstream load was 90%, up 0.6%. In terms of plants, the load of some local plants increased. The terminal texturing load increased by 7% to 79%, and the loom load increased by 5% to 68%. The import arrival forecast was 54,000 tons, and the average daily departure volume from East China ports from August 22 - 24 was 14,000 tons. The port inventory was 50 tons, a 47,000 - ton decrease. In terms of valuation and cost, the profit of naphtha - based production was - 384 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 569 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 1,104 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 830 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines decreased to 520 yuan. In terms of industry fundamentals, overseas and domestic maintenance plants were gradually restarting, and the downstream production start - up rate was gradually recovering from the off - season, but the supply was still in excess. It was expected that the port inventory would enter an inventory - building cycle in the medium - term. The valuation was relatively high compared to the same period, the fundamentals changed from strong to weak. Although there was short - term support from less arrival volume and policy sentiment, there was downward pressure on the medium - term valuation [23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst weakened, the near - month spread weakened (9 - 10 at 0.75 USD/ton, 10 - 11 at 3.25 USD/ton), the basis rebounded, and the EW spread continued to rebound. Affected by the new round of US sanctions on Iran (covering Dongjiakou and Yangshan Shengang), the near - month internal - external spread of FU fluctuated greatly, and the 09 contract once returned above par. [5][6] - The low - sulfur cracking weakened, the spread oscillated (9 - 10 at 2 USD/ton, 10 - 11 at 2.75 USD/ton), and the internal - external spread of LU strengthened slightly to 10 USD. [6] - Fundamentally, Singapore's land - based residue inventory continued to decline, floating storage inventory decreased significantly, and low - sulfur floating storage increased. The high - sulfur bunker volume in Singapore in July increased by 15% month - on - month and 10% year - on - year. [6] - The land - based inventory in Fujairah, Middle East decreased significantly, and floating storage decreased significantly. This week, Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased month - on - month, and UAE's shipments oscillated. [6] - US residue inventory increased slightly but remained at the lowest level in the same period of history, ARA ports decreased slightly, and floating storage increased slightly. [6] - The global supply - demand of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Due to the reshaping of logistics, the demand for high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provided support, and the EW spread was still recovering. There was still a large amount of FU delivery cargo, and attention should be paid to subsequent delivery changes. [6] - The new round of sanctions had a large potential impact on domestic heavy crude oil, providing a certain support for the valuation of Asian fuel oil. This week, LU remained weak, the basis of external MF0.5 oscillated at a low level, and the internal - external spread of LU oscillated. In the short term, opportunities for the expansion of high - sulfur 380 EW could still be concerned. [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From August 18th to 22nd, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed by 7.74, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed by 8.57, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed by 0.41, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed by 11.52, Rotterdam VLSFO - G M1 changed by - 2.95, LGO - Brent M1 changed by 0.07, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 changed by 0.83. [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From August 18th to 22nd, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 changed by 2.60, Singapore 180cst M1 changed by 2.04, Singapore VLSFO M1 changed by 2.59, Singapore GO M1 changed by 0.94, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed by 0.04, and Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 changed by - 4.37. [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From August 18th to 22nd, 2025, the FOB 380cst price changed by 2.46, FOB VLSFO price changed by 4.18, 380 basis changed by - 0.60, high - sulfur internal - external spread changed by 4.3, and low - sulfur internal - external spread changed by 3.7. [4] Domestic FU Data - From August 18th to 22nd, 2025, FU 01 changed by 33, FU 05 changed by 17, FU 09 changed by 38, FU 01 - 05 changed by 16, FU 05 - 09 changed by - 21, and FU 09 - 01 changed by 5. [4] Domestic LU Data - From August 18th to 22nd, 2025, LU 01 changed by 19, LU 05 changed by - 29, LU 09 changed by 12, LU 01 - 05 changed by 48, LU 05 - 09 changed by - 41, and LU 09 - 01 changed by - 7. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report Crude oil prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but there is still downward pressure in the medium and long term. Support factors include the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories, the narrowing of the discount of crude oil from the Middle East to Asia, the incomplete dissipation of geopolitical risk premiums, and the structural differentiation of fuel demand at the end of the Northern Hemisphere summer. Suppressing factors include the expectation of OPEC+ to accelerate the exit from production cuts, the increase in US exports, seasonal refinery maintenance, and cautious macro - sentiment [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On August 21, 2025, the SC crude oil main contract rose 1.68% to 490.9 yuan/barrel, breaking through the recent oscillation range. The prices of WTI and Brent main contracts remained at $62.84/barrel and $67.04/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread widened from $0.21/barrel to $1.35/barrel (a 542.86% increase), and the SC - WTI spread rose from $4.41/barrel to $5.55/barrel. The Brent - WTI spread was stable at $4.2/barrel. The spread between the near - month and the third - consecutive contract of SC narrowed from - 4.2 yuan/barrel to - 2.0 yuan/barrel [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain** - **Supply**: US crude oil exports rebounded to over 4 million barrels per day in August - September, the highest since the beginning of the year. OPEC+ accelerating the lifting of 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts still suppresses market sentiment. UK sanctions on Iranian business entities may increase the risk of restricted Iranian crude oil exports [2]. - **Demand**: The US gasoline demand peak season is nearing its end, and refinery maintenance may suppress short - term crude oil processing demand. As of the week ending August 15, commercial crude oil inventories in the US dropped by 6 million barrels to 420.7 million barrels. The Asian market is significantly differentiated, with Singapore's light/medium distillate inventories rising to 17 - week and 6 - week highs, and fuel oil inventories dropping to an 8 - week low [2]. - **Inventory**: US natural gas inventories have been accumulating less than expected, indicating energy demand resilience. The narrowing of the SC far - month discount may imply increased spot purchasing momentum in the Asia - Pacific region [2]. - **Price Trend Judgment**: Crude oil prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but there is still downward pressure in the medium and long term. Later, attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policy adjustments, the sustainability of US exports, and changes in Asian distillate inventories [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: The prices of most crude oil futures and spot contracts increased on August 21, 2025. The SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads widened, while the Brent - WTI spread narrowed. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, and the US refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume increased slightly [5]. - **Fuel Oil**: The prices of most fuel oil futures and spot contracts increased on August 21, 2025. Singapore's fuel oil inventories decreased, while some US distillate inventories increased [6]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - **Supply**: US crude oil exports are expected to exceed 4 million barrels per day in August and September, reaching the highest level since the beginning of the year, due to refinery maintenance and the price advantage of WTI in Asia [7][8]. - **Demand**: Air Canada expects flights to operate close to the normal schedule tomorrow [9]. - **Inventory**: US natural gas inventories increased by 13 billion cubic feet in the week ending August 15, less than expected. Singapore's light and medium distillate inventories rose to multi - week highs, and fuel oil inventories dropped to an 8 - week low [10][11]. - **Market Information**: The UK imposed sanctions on an Iranian business tycoon and several key enterprises in his network [12]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US crude oil production, refinery operating rates, and inventories of various types of oil products [13][15][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][3][4][6][7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The decline in US crude oil inventories supports the rebound of oil prices, but the continuous driving force remains to be observed, and oil prices are in a low - range oscillating rhythm. Geopolitical factors such as the Iran nuclear negotiation deadline and potential sanctions also affect the oil market [1]. - The consumption of marine fuel in Singapore increased in July, but the fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil are suppressed by sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market shows signs of stabilization. In the short term, the upward space of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is not optimistic [3]. - The asphalt market is expected to see a situation of increasing supply and demand in August, and the price will oscillate in a range due to the lack of obvious one - sided driving force [4]. - The polyester market shows signs of demand recovery. PX prices are expected to fluctuate with crude oil prices, and PTA and ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4][6]. - The rubber market has firm raw materials, but tire demand and开工 decline, and inventory accumulates. The short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate [6]. - The methanol market has a short - term low supply due to many domestic device overhauls, but the supply will gradually recover. The port inventory is expected to increase, and the price will oscillate narrowly with a near - weak and far - strong structure [6][7]. - The polyolefin market will gradually transition to a situation of strong supply and demand. The cost side does not fluctuate significantly, and the overall will show a narrow - range oscillating pattern [7]. - The polyvinyl chloride market has high - level supply oscillations and gradually recovering demand. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rebounded. The EIA inventory report showed a decline in US crude oil and gasoline inventories but an increase in distillate inventories. As the deadline for Iran's nuclear negotiation and cooperation approaches, geopolitical risks exist. Indian companies have resumed purchasing Russian oil. The current destocking of US crude oil supports the price rebound, but the continuous driving force remains to be observed, and the price is in a low - range oscillating rhythm [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil on the SHFE rose, while the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil fell. In July, Singapore's marine fuel sales reached a 19 - month high. High - sulfur fuel oil demand increased significantly, and its market share is approaching 40%. In August, the supply of traditional fuel oil in Singapore is still abundant. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is suppressed by supply, while the high - sulfur market may be supported by reduced supply in September [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main contract of asphalt on the SHFE rose. The planned asphalt production of local refineries in September is expected to increase year - on - year and month - on - month. The social inventory rate decreased slightly, and the refinery inventory level increased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand in the north is stable, while the demand in the east is expected to recover. The price will oscillate in a range in August [4]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures all rose. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang declined. A Malaysian MEG device has restarted. PX supply and demand are recovering, and PTA and ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4][6]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and butadiene rubber all fell. Rubber raw materials are firm, but tire demand and开工 decline, and inventory accumulates. The short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, spot prices in different regions and international prices are given. Recently, there have been many domestic device overhauls, and the supply is at a short - term low. The supply will gradually recover, and the arrival volume is expected to remain high. The port inventory will increase in the short term, and the price will oscillate narrowly with a near - weak and far - strong structure [6][7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, prices and production profits of different types of polyolefins are provided. The subsequent production volume will remain high, and the current downstream enterprise开工 is low. As the peak demand season approaches, the industry开工 rate is expected to increase, and the overall will show a narrow - range oscillating pattern [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, PVC market prices in East, North, and South China all decreased. The supply oscillates at a high level, and the demand is gradually recovering. The basis and monthly spread are relatively high, and it is expected that the monthly spread will narrow, and the price will oscillate weakly [7][8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Data on the basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, etc. are provided, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their respective changes from August 19th to 20th [9]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA inventory report shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased last week, while distillate inventories increased. As of August 15th, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6 million barrels to 420.7 million barrels, which was more than the market expectation. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased by 200,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 419,000 barrels [12]. - JODI data shows that Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in June dropped to a three - month low, with exports falling from 6.191 million barrels per day in May to 6.141 million barrels per day. However, the crude oil production in June was 9.752 million barrels per day, higher than that in May [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts of the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. from 2021 to 2025 are presented [14][17][20][21][23][25][27][28][31]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts of the basis of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips are provided [32][34][38][41][44][45]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of the spreads between different contracts of various products such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber are shown [48][50][53][56][59][61]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts of the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spreads, PP - LLDPE spreads, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spreads are presented [67][68][69][70]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts of the production profits of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are provided [72][76]. 4. Research Team Members - **Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director**: Zhong Meiyan, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, has won multiple "Excellent Analyst" awards and led the team to win many industry service awards. She has over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research [78]. - **Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, and Shipping Analyst**: Du Bingqin, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison and a bachelor's degree in finance from Shandong University, has won multiple industry awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [79]. - **Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst**: Di Yilin, a finance master, has won multiple awards and is engaged in the research of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, PTA, MEG, and other futures varieties [80]. - **Methanol/PE/PP/PVC Analyst**: Peng Haibo, with an engineering master's degree from China University of Petroleum (East China), is a mid - level economist and has years of experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading [81].