Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Weekly Review**: Global fuel oil prices had a narrower fluctuation range this week. After falling at the beginning of the week, they rebounded slightly, and the crack spreads and monthly spreads declined slightly from their highs [4]. - **Weekly Outlook**: Fuel oil prices rebounded after falling at the beginning of the week, with the overall price changes narrowing compared to the previous week. However, the strengthening of crude oil prices caused the fuel oil crack spreads to decline from their highs. Currently, supply - side changes are dominating price movements. High - sulfur fuel oil's monthly spreads and crack spreads are likely to avoid significant declines, while for low - sulfur fuel oil, the price, crack spreads, and monthly spreads of the domestic LU may be suppressed [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operations**: Data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries are presented, covering multiple years from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: Data on the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units are provided, spanning from 2018 - 2025 [9][11][13][14]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commodity Volume**: Data on China's monthly fuel oil production, low - sulfur fuel oil production, and fuel oil commodity volume are shown, covering multiple years from 2018 - 2025 [18]. 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data**: Data on Singapore's monthly fuel oil bunker sales, China's monthly fuel oil apparent consumption, and China's monthly marine fuel oil actual consumption are presented, covering multiple years from 2018 - 2025 [21]. 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: Data on the inventories of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, residual fuel oil in the US, etc. are provided, covering multiple years from 2018 - 2025 [24][26][27]. 3.4 Price and Spreads - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujeirah, Singapore, and other locations are presented, covering multiple years from 2018 - 2025 [31][32][33]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, the Mediterranean, and other locations are provided, covering multiple years from 2018 - 2025 [36][37][39]. - **US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high - sulfur fuel oil cargo prices in the New York Harbor, etc. are presented, covering multiple years from 2018 - 2025 [42]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: Data on the swap prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Northwest Europe and Singapore are provided, as well as the prices of FU and LU contracts [44][50]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spreads**: Data on the price spreads between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and the viscosity spreads are presented, covering multiple years from 2018 - 2025 [53][55]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spreads**: Data on the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe are provided, covering multiple years from 2019 - 2025 [59][61][62]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spreads**: Data on the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe are presented, covering the period from 2023 - 2025 [66][67]. 3.5 Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on China's monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) are presented, covering multiple years from 2018 - 2025 [72][74][75]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in regions such as China, the Middle East, and the US are provided [77]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in regions such as Singapore + Malaysia, China, and the US are presented [79].

经济观察报记者 张晓晖 2025年5月29日晚间，上海龙宇数据股份有限公司（603003.SH，下称"*ST龙宇"或"龙宇股份"）公告表示，因为个人及身体原因，公司实际控制人（下称"实 控人"）之一徐增增女士申请辞去公司董事长、董事、董事会下设专门委员会及公司法定代表人等职务。 徐增增现年73岁，是*ST龙宇的创始人，与刘振光、刘策一起为该公司的实控人，其中刘振光是徐增增的丈夫，现年74岁；刘策是徐增增的儿子，现年48 岁，在该公司担任董事、总经理。 公告显示，2025年5月30日，*ST龙宇因2024年度财务会计报告被出具无法表示意见的审计报告，内部控制被出具否定意见的审计报告，触及终止上市条 件，被上海证券交易所（下称"上交所"）决定终止公司股票上市。6月10日，*ST龙宇股票进入退市整理期，预计最后交易日期为6月30日。 经济观察报记者获悉，目前有两拨*ST龙宇的中小股东提出诉求，合计持股份额超过11%。一拨中小股东委托律师，提出召开临时股东大会，改组董事会； 另一拨为42名中小股东，委托律师将一封约6000字的联名举报信提交监管部门，并计划向上海金融法院提起行政诉讼，请求撤销退市决定。在举报信中，中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View The report is a daily data report on commodity arbitrage from Baocheng Futures on June 6, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of various commodities including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis**: From May 29 to June 5, 2025, the basis was negative, and the values were - 190.4, - 190.4, - 191.4, - 192.4, - 192.4 respectively. The spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 were all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - **Basis and Ratio**: The report shows the basis of crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt. For example, on June 5, 2025, the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1332 [6][9]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of various chemical commodities such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. are provided from May 29 to June 5, 2025. For example, the basis of natural rubber on June 5 was 5 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of different contracts (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) for various chemical commodities are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of natural rubber was 25 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. are given from May 29 to June 5, 2025. For example, on June 5, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2281 yuan/ton [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from May 29 to June 5, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on June 5 was 131.0 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of different contracts for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rebar was 1.0 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as screw/ore, screw/coke, etc. are given from May 29 to June 5, 2025. For example, on June 5, the screw/ore ratio was 4.22 [15]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - **Basis**: The basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from May 29 to June 5, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of copper on June 5 was 230 yuan/ton [24]. - **LME Data**: The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on June 5, 2025 are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was 93.15 [30]. 3.4.2 London Market - **LME Basis and Related Ratios**: The LME basis, Shanghai - London ratios, etc. are presented, but specific data is not fully detailed in the text [32][33]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. from May 29 to June 5, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans on June 5 was - 58 yuan/ton [40]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of different contracts for various agricultural products are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of soybeans was 31 yuan/ton [40]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as soybean/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. are given from May 29 to June 5, 2025. For example, on June 5, the soybean/corn ratio was 1.77 [38]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from May 29 to June 5, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on June 5 was 25.56 [48]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of different contracts for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 38.8 [48].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly indicated, but the operation rating implies an unclear short - term trend [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but with limited operability on the market [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly indicated in terms of a star rating, but implied to follow the crude oil trend [1][3] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term market for crude oil is oscillating strongly, but there may be short - selling opportunities after the peak - season expectations and geopolitical fluctuations are fully priced. The fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil markets show different trends, with high - sulfur fuel oil facing weak demand and low - sulfur fuel oil following the crude oil trend. The asphalt market has a short - term callback pressure on the cracking spread but the upward trend is not reversed. The LPG market has stabilized with limited downward space and remains in low - level oscillation [2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued to rise, with the SC07 contract rising 0.69% during the day. The crude oil month - spread and spot premium are stronger than the single - side price, indicating tight physical supply as the peak season approaches. Since the second quarter, global oil inventory accumulation has exceeded that of the first quarter. Last week, the US API crude oil inventory unexpectedly decreased by 3.3 million barrels. The market is short - term oscillating strongly, but the rapid production increase by OPEC+ may make the supply - demand tightness unsustainable [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The futures of the fuel oil system showed a differentiated trend today, with LU performing relatively strongly. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in ship bunkering and deep - processing is still low. The summer power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa has some support, but the expected lower temperature in Saudi Arabia and Egypt this summer and the high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread may lead to more crude oil used for power generation. In May, the arrival volume of Russian fuel oil in Asia increased by 42% to 2.45 million tons. The high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread and EFS are expected to weaken together. The low - sulfur fuel oil bunkering volume in Fujairah decreased significantly last week, and the overseas ship - fuel demand peak season is approaching the end. With low supply in China, the port bonded inventory has decreased significantly, and low - sulfur fuel oil mainly follows the crude oil trend [3] Asphalt - Asphalt performed relatively weakly today, and the BU cracking spread continued a slight downward trend. The June diluted asphalt premium is still at a high of - $6.5 per barrel, and refinery production depends on crude oil quotas. After the peak of major refinery overhauls, the refinery's operation is still restricted by poor comprehensive refining and export profits, and the supply increase lacks resilience. The seasonal demand improvement has been realized, but the real driving force is still awaited. The balance sheet estimates that the de - stocking trend will continue and the inventory level is low. The BU cracking spread faces short - term callback pressure, but the upward trend is not reversed [4] LPG - The June CP reduction is relatively small. Although the Middle East supply is still abundant, the recovery of domestic chemical demand and the rebound of crude oil have boosted the market sentiment, and the market decline has stabilized. The domestic arrival volume at the beginning of the month and the domestic - produced gas have both declined month - on - month, and the supply pressure has weakened, limiting the downward space. The spot - market surplus pressure has eased, and the futures market has stabilized with the rise of crude oil, but the improvement of chemical profit margins lacks momentum, and it remains in low - level oscillation [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: After OPEC's production increase in July, the previous negative factors were exhausted. With the threat of wildfires in Canada and rising geopolitical risks, combined with short - term macro - stability, oil prices are strong in the short - term. However, in the long - term, due to relatively weak demand and continuous supply growth, the upside space is limited. The short - term Brent price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the operating range moving up to $65 - 68 per barrel, and the medium - term range is expected to be $63 - 70 per barrel [1][2]. - Asphalt: The overall supply - demand pattern is loose. Although the cost of crude oil has increased, the market's acceptance of high - priced resources is poor. In the short - term, the terminal demand is limited, and the mainstream transaction price is concentrated at the lower end. However, due to the maintenance plan of some refineries and low inventory levels, the price has a certain upward trend [3][4]. - Liquefied gas: In the international market, the CP price has increased, while the FEI has decreased. In the domestic market, supply is increasing, and the summer off - season has increased the pressure on the market, with the fundamentals running weakly [8]. - Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has high near - month cracking and month - to - month spreads, and the spot premium has rebounded. The supply from Russia, Mexico, and the Middle East is expected to decline, while the demand for seasonal power generation is supportive. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a stable supply increase and weak downstream demand [9][11]. - Natural gas: In the US, due to increased demand, the price is expected to rebound. In Europe, supply restrictions and geopolitical tensions offset weak demand, and the price has returned above 35 euros. Europe still faces challenges in refilling gas storage [12][13]. - PX: As the efficiency of PX improves, the operating rate is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with the spot shortage situation expected to ease [14][16]. - PTA: The supply is expected to increase, while the polyester industry plans to reduce production, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to weaken, and the processing fee may be compressed [17][18]. - Ethylene glycol: The inventory is expected to decline in the short - term, but the supply will increase in June due to some restarted maintenance. The downstream polyester operating rate is weakening, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, maintaining a tight balance [20][21]. - Short - fiber: The operating rate is stable, and the terminal demand is mainly for fulfilling previous orders. There are still production reduction plans in June, but the supply loss is limited. The processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [22][23]. - Bottle - chip: The operating rate has decreased, and the processing fee fluctuates within a narrow range. In June, the downstream soft - drink industry will enter the production peak, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be strong, with the processing fee having strong support [24][26]. - Styrene: The supply is expected to increase, and the port inventory is expected to increase from a low level, with the supply - demand relationship weakening [26][27]. - PVC: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term, with supply increasing and demand affected by real estate and export uncertainties [29][30]. - Caustic soda: The 09 - contract is expected to be weak, with the medium - term trend being bearish. Although there is still some support in the short - term, the upward driving force for the spot price is weakening [30][31]. - Plastic and PP: The new production capacity is being realized, and the downstream demand is weak. The 09 - contract's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [32][34]. - Glass: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is affected by the real estate cycle. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the medium - term focus is on cost reduction and factory cold - repair [34][37]. - Soda ash: The supply is increasing, the cost is weakening, and the demand is stable in the short - term but worrying in the medium - term. The price is expected to decline gradually [38][40]. - Urea: The daily output is at a high level, and the demand is affected by factors such as international price changes, compound fertilizer production, and export policies. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [41][42]. - Methanol: The international supply is still high, the domestic supply is loose, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. The price is still recommended to be shorted on rebounds [43][45]. - Log: The downstream market is still sluggish, and the long - term market faces challenges from weak real - estate demand and increased port inventory. However, the large scale difference in delivery has a certain supporting effect on the current price [45][48]. - Double - offset paper: The market was weak in May, and in June, short - term technical rebounds may occur, but long - term risks from over - capacity and weak demand need to be vigilant [48][49]. - Corrugated paper: In May, the demand showed structural improvement, but in June, attention should be paid to factors such as the implementation of price - increase policies, export order sustainability, and waste - paper price fluctuations [50]. - Natural rubber: The domestic inventory is still at a high level, and the production index of French rubber machinery has decreased. The short - term trading strategy is to hold short positions [51][54]. - Pulp: The domestic and foreign paper - making industries have shown signs of production reduction, which is negative for the SP single - side. The short - term trading strategy is to try to go long on a small scale [54][56]. - Butadiene rubber: The short - term supply contraction has led to price increases, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the expansion of downstream ABS capacity. The short - term trading strategy is to hold short positions [58][60]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2507 contract settled at $63.41, up $0.89 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.42%; Brent2508 contract settled at $65.63, up $1.00 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.55%. SC main contract 2507 rose 12.4 to 465 yuan per barrel, and in the night session, it rose 4.0 to 469 yuan per barrel [1]. - Related News: The US has asked countries to submit their best trade negotiation plans by Wednesday. The US labor market is showing signs of softening, with an increase in job vacancies but also a large increase in layoffs [1]. - Logic Analysis: After OPEC's production increase, the previous negative factors were exhausted. Geopolitical risks have risen, and the macro - situation is stable in the short - term. However, in the long - term, due to weak demand and continuous supply growth, the upside space is limited [2]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term high - level oscillation, medium - term wide - range oscillation; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are expected to weaken; options are on hold [2]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2507 closed at 3524 points (+1.21%) in the night session, and BU2509 closed at 3495 points (+1.13%) in the night session. The spot price in Shandong on June 3 was 3470 - 3870 yuan, in the East China region was 3550 - 3620 yuan, and in the South China region was 3360 - 3450 yuan [3]. - Related News: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong rose by 25 yuan per ton. The demand is weak, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is poor. However, due to the maintenance plan of some refineries and low inventory levels, the price has increased [3][4]. - Logic Analysis: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is mainly stable. In the short - term, the terminal demand is limited, and the mainstream transaction price is concentrated at the lower end [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation; asphalt - crude oil spread oscillates at a high level; options are on hold [6]. Liquefied Gas - Market Review: PG2507 closed at 4075 (+0.27%) in the night session, and PG2508 closed at 4004 (+0.18%) in the night session. The spot price in South China, East China, and Shandong is given [6]. - Related News: The market in South China is generally stable, with some hidden discounts. The market in Shandong is stable with some small increases, and the ether - post - carbon - four market is expected to rise steadily [7]. - Logic Analysis: Internationally, the CP price has increased, and the FEI has decreased. Domestically, supply is increasing, and the summer off - season has increased market pressure, with the fundamentals running weakly [8]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU07 contract closed at 2943 (-0.03%) in the night session, and LU07 closed at 3535 (+1.61%) in the night session. The Singapore paper - futures market's month - to - month spreads are given [9]. - Related News: Russia's exports of some oil products are expected to change in June, and Nigeria's Dangote refinery will import a large amount of US WTI crude oil in July [9]. - Logic Analysis: High - sulfur fuel oil has high near - month cracking and month - to - month spreads, and the spot premium has rebounded. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a stable supply increase and weak downstream demand [11]. - Trading Strategy: On hold for single - side trading; go long on the FU9 - 1 positive spread when the price is low [12]. Natural Gas - Market Review: HH contract closed at 3.7 (+0.76%), TTF closed at 35.848 (+2.38%), and JKM closed at 12.345 (+1.69%) [12]. - Logic Analysis: In the US, due to increased demand, the price is expected to rebound. In Europe, supply restrictions and geopolitical tensions offset weak demand, and the price has returned above 35 euros. Europe still faces challenges in refilling gas storage [12][13]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on HH on dips; TTF is expected to oscillate strongly [14]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6524 (-1.42%) during the day and 6618 (+1.44%) in the night session. The spot price, MOPJ valuation, and PXN spread are given [14]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light [15]. - Logic Analysis: As the efficiency of PX improves, the operating rate is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with the spot shortage situation expected to ease [16]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; go long on PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [16]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4628 (-1.53%) during the day and 4706 (+1.69%) in the night session. The spot price and basis are given [17]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light, and a PTA device has restarted [15][18]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is expected to increase, while the polyester industry plans to reduce production, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to weaken, and the processing fee may be compressed [18]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; go long on PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [18]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 main contract closed at 4306 (-0.99%) during the day and 4319 (+0.30%) in the night session. The spot price and basis are given [18][19]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light, and some EG devices have restarted or are under maintenance [20]. - Logic Analysis: The inventory is expected to decline in the short - term, but the supply will increase in June due to some restarted maintenance. The downstream polyester operating rate is weakening, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, maintaining a tight balance [21]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; basis positive spread; sell call options [22]. Short - fiber - Market Review: PF2507 main contract closed at 6338 (-0.72%) during the day and 6426 (+1.39%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions is given [22]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light [23]. - Logic Analysis: The operating rate is stable, and the terminal demand is mainly for fulfilling previous orders. There are still production reduction plans in June, but the supply loss is limited. The processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [23]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; short PTA and long PF; options are on hold [24]. Bottle - chip - Market Review: PR2507 main contract closed at 5912 (-1.17%) during the day and 5958 (+0.78%) in the night session. The spot price of polyester bottle - chips is given [24]. - Related News: The export quotes of polyester bottle - chip factories are mostly stable [25]. - Logic Analysis: The operating rate has decreased, and the processing fee fluctuates within a narrow range. In June, the downstream soft - drink industry will enter the production peak, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be strong, with the processing fee having strong support [26]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation consolidation; options are on hold; sell call options [26]. Styrene - Market Review: EB2507 main contract closed at 7018 (-1.71%) during the day and 7133 (+1.64%) in the night session. The spot price and basis in different periods are given [26]. - Related News: The inventory in the East China main port of styrene has increased, and the upstream pure - benzene port inventory has also increased [26]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is expected to increase, and the port inventory is expected to increase from a low level, with the supply - demand relationship weakening [27]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation weakly; options are on hold; sell call options [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: The spot price of PVC has slightly decreased, and the spot price of caustic soda in different regions has changed [29]. - Related News: The price of caustic soda in some factories has changed, and the Indian BIS hearing has no news yet [30]. - Logic Analysis: PVC's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term, and caustic soda's 09 - contract is expected to be weak, with the medium - term trend being bearish [30][31]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, go short on caustic soda at high prices and hold short positions on PVC; for arbitrage, arrange a 7 - 9 reverse spread when the spot weakens; options are on hold [32]. Plastic and PP - Market Review: The spot price of LLDPE in different regions has changed, and the spot price of PP in different regions has decreased [32]. - Related News: The maintenance ratio of PE and PP has decreased [33]. - Logic Analysis: The new production capacity is being realized, and the downstream demand is weak. The 09 - contract's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [34]. - Trading Strategy: Short - and medium - term weakness, hold short positions; options are on hold; arbitrage is on hold [34]. Glass - Market Review: The glass futures 09 - contract closed at 954 (-2.85%) during the day and 965 (+1.15%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions has changed [34][35]. - Related News: The China May Caixin Manufacturing PMI has contracted, and the price of the domestic float - glass market has decreased slightly. A glass production line has restarted [36]. - Logic Analysis: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is affected by the real estate cycle. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the medium - term focus is on cost reduction and factory cold - repair [37]. - Trading Strategy: Price oscillates weakly [38]. Soda Ash - Market Review: The soda - ash futures 09 - contract closed at 1185 (-1.2%) during the day and 1213 (+2.4%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions has changed [38]. - Related News: A soda - ash device has resumed operation, and the domestic soda - ash market is adjusting weakly [39][40]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is increasing, the cost is weakening, and the demand is stable in the short - term but worrying in the medium - term. The price is expected to decline gradually [40]. - Trading Strategy: Bearish judgment, gradual

Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil Industry Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: June 2, 2025 [2] - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - Crude oil production increase expectations and macro bearish factors weaken cost support. Coupled with weak demand in the off - season and high inventory pressure, fuel oil maintains a pattern where it is easier to fall than to rise [5] Summary by Content Fundamental Information - Fujeirah fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.395 million barrels (a 12.7% decline) weekly, and the start of power generation demand in the Middle East alleviates regional supply pressure [4] - Middle - Eastern countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia have increased high - sulfur fuel oil power generation tenders, supporting the fundamentals of the high - sulfur market [4] - Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 0.832 million barrels to 22.338 million barrels (a new high this year), and the inflow of European cargoes intensifies supply looseness [4] - During the off - season of marine fuel consumption and with the expectation of refinery restart, the spot price dropped by 85 yuan/ton weekly; OPEC+ production increase expectations suppress crude oil costs [4] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Price and Spread Data - **Price Changes**: Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil M + 2 was at $472.35/ton on June 2, 2025, with a daily increase of $6.73 and a weekly decrease of $0.98. Other regions also had corresponding price changes [6] - **Spread Changes**: LU futures M + 3 - Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil M + 2 was at $6.4711/ton on June 2, 2025, with a daily decrease of $19.6327 and a weekly decrease of $6.7902. Other spreads also had different changes [6] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Price and Spread Data - **Price Changes**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil M + 1 was at $407.54/ton on June 2, 2025, with a daily decrease of $3.84 and a weekly decrease of $12.86. Other regions also had price fluctuations [28] - **Spread Changes**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil monthly spread was at 7.45 on June 2, 2025, with a daily decrease of 7.23 and a weekly decrease of 10.42. Other spreads also changed accordingly [28] Supply and Demand - Related Data - **Supply**: Data on low - sulfur fuel oil exports from Kuwait, Brazil, and Russia, as well as China's bonded port fuel oil monthly supply are presented [15][17][21] - **Demand**: Data on China's low - sulfur fuel oil port actual consumption, Singapore's marine fuel bunkering volume, and high - sulfur fuel oil sales in Singapore and Fujairah are provided [22][29][40] Inventory - Related Data - Inventory data for Singapore's residue, ARA fuel oil, Fujeirah fuel oil, and fuel oil in Zhoushan Port's bonded warehouse are shown [24][25] - Seasonal data on high - sulfur floating storage inventories in Malaysia and Singapore are also presented [48][49] Other Data - Seasonal data on low - sulfur fuel oil cracking spreads, monthly spreads, and price differences between different regions are provided [7][9][12] - Seasonal data on high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spreads, monthly spreads, and price differences between different regions are also included [32][34][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view of the energy - chemical products market is that most varieties are expected to show a volatile trend. For example, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all rated as "volatile" [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the price center of oil rose. WTI July contract closed up $0.95 to $61.84 per barrel, a 1.56% increase; Brent July contract closed up $0.81 to $64.9 per barrel, a 1.26% increase; SC2507 closed at 457.4 yuan per barrel, up 3.8 yuan per barrel, a 0.84% increase. OPEC+ did not adjust production policy on Wednesday but agreed to set a benchmark for 2027 oil production. There is a possibility of accelerated production increase in July. API data showed that US crude and gasoline inventories decreased last week while distillate inventories increased [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.13% to 2986 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2507 fell 1.03% to 3469 yuan per ton. In April 2025, China's fuel oil production was 3.563 million tons, down 8.73% month - on - month and up 2.86% year - on - year. In May, sales are expected to rise steadily. The Asian high - sulfur market will remain strong in the short term, but the demand for high - sulfur raw materials from refineries is still suppressed [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.91% to 3481 yuan per ton. This week, the total inventory level of domestic refineries was 30.39%, up 0.08% from last week; the social inventory rate was 34.59%, down 0.24% from last week; the total operating rate of domestic asphalt plants was 30.49%, up 1.49% from last week. The short - term supply pressure of refineries is limited, but production may increase. The demand in the south is expected to be lower than expected due to the rainy season [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4672 yuan per ton, down 1.43%; EG2509 closed at 4311 yuan per ton, down 1.73%. A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi reduced production for maintenance. The expected arrival volume at the main port of ethylene glycol this week is low. Downstream polyester manufacturers plan to cut production, and polyester prices are expected to fluctuate with the cost [5]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract RU2509 fell 690 yuan per ton to 13805 yuan per ton, NR fell 670 yuan per ton to 12245 yuan per ton, and butadiene rubber BR fell 495 yuan per ton to 11150 yuan per ton. From January to April, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The rubber market shows a volatile trend [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol has decreased due to increased domestic plant maintenance but remains at a high level in the past five years. Overseas plant operation rates have decreased, but short - term arrivals are recovering. MTO plant operation rates have increased, and port and inland inventories are at low levels. Methanol prices are expected to remain volatile [7]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China drawn wire is 7000 - 7250 yuan per ton. The upstream is under maintenance, and the overall supply pressure is not large. Downstream enterprises are increasing raw material purchases, and inventories are decreasing. However, both inventory and supply are at relatively high levels, and polyolefin prices are expected to remain volatile [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, PVC prices in East, North, and South China decreased. Supply is expected to increase as maintenance devices resume operation. Domestic real estate construction is stable, and the operating rates of pipes and profiles remain relatively stable. PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical products on May 29, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, methanol, etc. [10] 3.3 Market News - API data showed that last week, US crude and gasoline inventories decreased while distillate inventories increased. As of the week of May 23, US crude inventories decreased by 4.24 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 528,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels [12]. - The Iraqi oil minister urged member states to comply with the agreement reached at the OPEC meeting, emphasizing the importance of unity for market stability [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the historical closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [14][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [31] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the historical spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the historical spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [63] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the historical production profit charts of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - to - ethylene glycol and PP [72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including the director, analysts for different product categories, and their educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [77][78][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall oil price will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the latest developments of the OPEC meeting [1]. - The fuel oil market will fluctuate. The Asian high - sulfur market will remain firm in the short - term, but the demand for high - sulfur raw materials from refineries is still suppressed. The previous positions of the LU - FU spread can be gradually closed for profit [3]. - The asphalt market will fluctuate. The upward space of asphalt is limited, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. A strategy of shorting the far - month cracking spread can be considered [3][5]. - The polyester market will fluctuate. The PX price and PXN have support at the bottom, and attention should be paid to the supply pressure relief brought by the increase in PX restart. The short - term PTA basis is strongly volatile, and the ethylene glycol price can be considered to be in a strong - oscillating trend [5][7]. - The rubber market will fluctuate. The rubber price shows a weakly - oscillating trend, and the butadiene rubber price is under pressure [7]. - The methanol market will fluctuate. The methanol price is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [8]. - The polyolefin market will fluctuate. The polyolefin is expected to maintain an oscillating trend, but there is still pressure on the valuation [8]. - The PVC market will fluctuate weakly. As the devices gradually resume production, the PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the oil price center declined. OPEC + may agree to further accelerate oil production increases. The US - Iran nuclear negotiation has no obvious progress, and the market's concern about supply has eased. The short - term oil price will continue to fluctuate weakly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts showed different trends. The Singapore marine fuel sales in April had a certain change. In May, the sales are expected to rise steadily. The Asian high - sulfur market is strong in the short - term, but the refinery's demand for high - sulfur raw materials is restricted [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract rose slightly. The domestic asphalt production in June is expected to decline slightly month - on - month and increase year - on - year. The short - term supply pressure of refineries is limited, but the demand may be lower than expected [3]. - **Polyester**: On Tuesday, the polyester - related contracts had different price changes. Multiple PX devices have plans for load increase or restart. The polyester start - up rate is high, and the PX price and PXN have support at the bottom [5]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the rubber - related contracts rose. The Sino - Thai zero - tariff negotiation has not reached a final result, the supply - side raw material price has fallen, and the butadiene rubber price is under pressure [7]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the methanol - related prices are given. The domestic methanol supply has decreased due to increased device maintenance, but it is still at a high level in the past 5 years. The methanol price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Polyolefin**: On Tuesday, the polyolefin - related prices and profits are provided. The upstream maintenance is high, the supply pressure is not large, and the downstream inventory is decreasing. The polyolefin is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, the PVC market prices in different regions decreased. The supply is expected to increase as the maintenance devices resume, and the demand is relatively stable. The PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy - chemical varieties on May 27 and May 26, 2025, as well as the historical data of basis rate changes and other information [10]. 3.3 Market News - A preliminary survey shows that the US crude oil, distillate, and gasoline inventories may increase last week [12]. - Norway's oil and gas industry investment will reach a record high this year, with an estimated total investment of $26.6 billion, a 6% increase from the previous quarter's forecast [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [14][15][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [31][36][43] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [46][48][54] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spread charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [70]

| 11/12 国技期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月26日 | | 原油 | 女女女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | ななな | F3063857 Z0016599 | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 上周国际油价总体震荡，布伦特07合约周度小幅下跌0.46%，SC07合约跌0.75%。上周五特朗普威,励6月1日起对欧盟 征收50%关税,此举将再次引发欧盟油品需求承压预期,同时欧洲对美出口汽油若未得豁免将在北美进入驾驶旺季 后拉动美国汽油裂解。关于6月1日OPEC+8国会议延续7月41.1万桶/天快速增产的担忧同样令市场承压，但周五美伊 第五轮核谈未达成协议,特朗普亦表示或因俄乌军事冲突持续而对俄罗斯加大制裁。制裁油供应风险仍对 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Short - term: range - bound, Brent between 60 - 70 USD/barrel; long - term: potential for price rebound if certain conditions are met [2] - **Asphalt**: Stronger than the cost end, expected to be high - level range - bound, with the BU main contract between 3400 - 3600 [5][6] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Fundamentals are weak, market under pressure during the summer off - season [7][8] - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil has certain support, low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing and demand is weak [10] - **Natural Gas**: US natural gas prices may rebound; European natural gas prices are supported but face uncertainties [11][12] - **PX**: High - level range - bound, supply is tight, downstream PTA supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease [13] - **PTA**: High - level range - bound, supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease, processing fees may be compressed [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: High - level range - bound, maintaining a tight balance [18] - **Short Fiber**: Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported, with some supply changes [20] - **PET Bottle Chip**: Processing fees may be suppressed, with stable production and weak downstream demand [22] - **Styrene**: Range - bound and weakening, supply is expected to increase and demand is weak [25] - **Plastic PP**: Short - and medium - term: sell on rallies, with new capacity and weak demand [27] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC: rebound and sell; caustic soda: short - term stable, medium - term bearish [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: Range - bound, short - term wait - and - see, bearish outlook [32][34] - **Glass**: Price is range - bound and weakening, short - term weak demand, medium - term focus on cost and cold repair [36] - **Urea**: Short - term weak, range - bound, pay attention to export and demand [37][38] - **Methanol**: Sell on rallies, supply is abundant and inventory is increasing [39][40] - **Log**: Spot is stable and weak, futures may have valuation repair [42][44] - **Double - offset Paper**: Market is stable, price increase is difficult to transmit due to weak demand [44] - **Corrugated Paper**: Market is stable with some increases, but terminal demand is weak [45] - **Pulp**: Try to go long on the SP main 07 contract, pay attention to inventory changes [48] - **Butadiene Rubber**: Wait - and - see on the BR main 07 contract, pay attention to support levels [51] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: Hold short positions on the RU main 09 contract, wait - and - see on the NR main 07 contract [55] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2507 closed at 61.53 USD/barrel, up 0.33 USD/barrel (+0.54%); Brent2507 closed at 64.78 USD/barrel, up 0.34 USD/barrel (+0.53%); SC main contract 2507 fell 7.8 to 454.7 CNY/barrel, up 2.1 to 456.8 CNY/barrel in night trading [1] - **Related News**: US - EU trade negotiation deadline extended; US - China trade talks may resume; Iran - US talks made limited progress [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term: supply initiative in OPEC's hands, possible price pressure if OPEC+ accelerates in July; long - term: potential for price rebound [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term range - bound, medium - term weak; gasoline and diesel crack spreads weaken; wait - and - see on options [2] Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2507 closed at 3521 points (-0.09%) in night trading; BU2509 closed at 3472 points (-0.03%) in night trading [3] - **Related News**: Shandong market prices down, other regions stable; demand affected by weather [3][4] - **Logic Analysis**: Stronger than cost end, supply tightens, demand affected by rainy season, high - level range - bound [5][6] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; asphalt - crude oil spread high - level range - bound; wait - and - see on options [6] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Market Review**: PG2506 closed at 4116 (-0.91%) in night trading; PG2507 closed at 4064 (-0.54%) in night trading [6] - **Related News**: Southern market stable, northern market with minor changes, supply is abundant and demand is weak [6] - **Logic Analysis**: Cost - end price down, supply increases, demand is weak in the combustion end and may increase in the chemical field, market under pressure [7][8] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in a clear format Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU07 closed at 2992 (-0.40%) in night trading; LU07 closed at 3520 (+0.57%) in night trading [9] - **Related News**: Japan's fuel oil inventory changes; Singapore's market trading situation [9] - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil has support, low - sulfur fuel oil supply increases and demand is weak [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see on single - side trading; close short positions on LU7 - 8 spread at low levels [11] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: HH contract closed at 3.344 (+2.49%); TTF closed at 36.45 (+0.26%); JKM closed at 12.585 (+1.74%) [11] - **Related News**: US natural gas inventory and production changes; European gas supply and demand situation [11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: US gas prices may rebound due to increased demand; European gas prices are supported but face uncertainties [11][12] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH at low levels; range - bound and bullish on TTF [12] PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6652 (+38/+0.57%) on Friday, 6764 (+112/+1.68%) in night trading [12] - **Related News**: PX and PTA operating rates; polyester sales situation [13] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is tight, downstream PTA supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease [13] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; long PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [14] PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4716 (+14/+0.30%) on Friday, 4788 (+72/+1.53%) in night trading [14] - **Related News**: PTA and polyester operating rates; polyester sales situation [14][15] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease, processing fees may be compressed [15] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; long PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [15] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4403 (-8/-0.18%) on Friday, 4417 (+14/+0.32%) in night trading [15] - **Related News**: Ethylene glycol operating rate; polyester sales situation [16] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand gap may narrow, maintaining a tight balance [18] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [19] Short Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2507 main contract closed at 6450 (-2/-0.03%) on Friday, 6524 (+74/1.15%) in night trading [19] - **Related News**: Short fiber operating rate and inventory; polyester downstream operating rates [19] - **Logic Analysis**: Operating rate decreases, inventory increases, processing fees are expected to be strongly supported [20] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; short PTA and long PF; wait - and - see on options [23] PET Bottle Chip - **Market Review**: PR2507 main contract closed at 5988 (-4/-0.07%) on Friday, 6054 (+66/+1.10%) in night trading [22] - **Related News**: Bottle chip operating rate; export quotation situation [22] - **Logic Analysis**: Operating rate is stable, downstream demand is weak, processing fees may be suppressed [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound consolidation; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [23] Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2507 main contract closed at 7281 (-5/-0.07%) on Friday, 7317 (+36/+0.49%) in night trading [24] - **Related News**: Styrene and downstream operating rates [24] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase and demand is weak, inventory may increase slightly [25] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound and weakening; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [25] Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE and PP spot price changes in different regions [25][26] - **Related News**: PE and PP inventory changes [26] - **Logic Analysis**: New capacity, weak demand, short - and medium - term sell on rallies [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - and medium - term sell on rallies; wait - and - see on spreads and options [28] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC and caustic soda spot price changes [28][29] - **Related News**: Shandong liquid chlorine price; PVC and caustic soda inventory and operating rate changes [29][30] - **Logic Analysis**: PVC: long - term oversupply, sell on rebounds; caustic soda: short - term stable, medium - term bearish [29][30] - **Trading Strategy**: PVC: sell on rebounds; caustic soda: short - term stable, medium - term bearish, sell on rallies; wait - and - see on spreads and options [31] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures and spot price changes [31] - **Related News**: Soda ash production, inventory, and profit changes; demand from downstream industries [32] - **Logic Analysis**: Range - bound, short - term wait - and - see, bearish outlook [32][33] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound, wait - and - see, bearish; short soda ash and long glass; wait - and - see on options [34] Glass - **Market Review**: Glass futures and spot price changes [34] - **Related News**: Glass production, inventory, and profit changes; market price changes in different regions [34][35] - **Logic Analysis**: Price is range - bound and weakening, short - term weak demand, medium - term focus on cost and cold repair [36] - **Trading Strategy**: Price is range - bound and weakening; long glass and short soda ash; wait - and - see on options [36] Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures and spot price changes [36][37] - **Related News**: Urea production, inventory, and export policy [37][38] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term weak, range - bound, pay attention to export and demand [37][38] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term weak; go long on 9 - 1 spread at low levels; sell put options [38] Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures and spot price changes [38][39] - **Related News**: International methanol production and operating rate changes [39] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is abundant and inventory is increasing, sell on rallies [39][40] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell on rallies; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [41] Log - **Market Review**: Log spot and futures price changes [41][42] - **Related News**: Log arrival volume changes [42] - **Logic Analysis**: Spot is stable and weak, futures may have valuation repair [42][44] - **Trading Strategy**: Spot: wait - and - see; futures: go long for aggressive investors; pay attention to 9 - 11 spread; wait - and - see on options [44] Double - offset Paper - **Market Review**: Double - offset paper price changes in different regions [44] - **Related News**: Market order and price change situation [44] - **Logic Analysis**: Market is stable, price increase is difficult to transmit due to weak demand [44] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated paper and box - board paper price changes [45] - **Related News**: Market price and demand situation [45] - **Logic Analysis**: Market is stable with some increases, but terminal demand is weak [45] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Pulp - **Market Review**: Pulp futures price changes; spot price of different pulp types [46][47] - **Related News**: Pulp inventory changes; company performance [48] - **Logic Analysis**: Try to go long on the SP main 07 contract, pay attention to inventory changes [48] - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on the SP main 07 contract; hold 5*SP2509 - 2*RU2509 spread [48][49] Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: Butadiene rubber and related product price changes [49] - **Related News**: Styrene market situation [50] - **Logic Analysis**: Wait - and - see on the BR main 07 contract, pay attention to support levels [51] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see on the BR main 07 contract; pay attention to the support of BR2509 - RU2509 spread; wait - and - see on options [51][52] Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - **Market Review**: Natural rubber, No. 20 rubber, and related product price changes [52][53][54] - **Related News**: Thai rubber import policy [54] - **Logic Analysis**: Hold short positions on the RU main 09 contract, wait - and - see on the NR main 07 contract [54][55] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions on the RU main 09 contract; wait - and - see on the NR main 07 contract; hold NR2509 - RU2509 spread; wait - and - see on options [55]