1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the inventory accumulation pressure on the steel end is gradually emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures market continues to be weak. The resumption of production by steel mills is slow, but there are disturbances in the iron ore shipping end, and the futures market shows signs of stabilization. As the winter storage nears its end, the support for coking coal and coke replenishment gradually weakens, and the futures market performs weakly. There are disturbances in the glass supply end, but the oversupply of glass and soda ash suppresses the futures price. Overall, as the winter storage of furnace materials nears its end, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster. The futures market has short - term downward adjustment pressure, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downward space of the futures market is limited [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Core Logic**: The inventory pressure continues to increase, and there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side. The current market has average expectations for post - holiday demand, and the futures market is under pressure. However, important meetings will be held after the Spring Festival, and there are still macro expectations. After the rapid decline of the futures market, the pressure is released. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears its end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally [2] - **Outlook**: The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears its end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [2][9] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke** - **Core Logic**: The growth space of coke supply is limited in the future, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price is expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side [2][11] - **Outlook**: The coke supply growth space is limited, and the downstream steel mill复产 expectation still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is limited. The spot price is expected to remain stable, and the futures market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side [2][11] - **Coking Coal** - **Core Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal are expected to decline. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production of coal mines is still restricted. The fundamentals of coking coal may remain healthy. The spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [12] - **Outlook**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal are expected to decline. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production of coal mines is still restricted. The fundamentals of coking coal may remain healthy. The spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [12] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon** - **Core Logic**: The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the pressure on upstream inventory reduction is increasing. When the futures market rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. The cost of manganese silicon has little adjustment recently, the demand support for the price weakens, and the market inventory level may further increase [15] - **Outlook**: The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, the upstream inventory reduction pressure is increasing. When the futures market rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main manganese silicon contract will oscillate around the cost. Pay attention to the adjustment range of raw material prices and the change of manufacturers' production control intensity [15][16] - **Silicon Iron** - **Core Logic**: The downstream procurement rhythm slows down, the market trading atmosphere fades, the cost adjustment range of silicon iron is limited, the support of steel - making demand for the price weakens, the market trading activity is low during the holiday, and the daily output of silicon iron remains at a low level [17] - **Outlook**: The silicon iron market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. However, the market trading activity is low around the Spring Festival, and the upward driving force of the futures market is insufficient. It is expected that the silicon iron futures price will run at a low level around the cost. Pay attention to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and settlement electricity prices, as well as the resumption of production trends in the main production areas [17] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Core Logic**: The supply is expected to decline in the long - term, the downstream demand is weak, the mid - stream inventory is large, and the downstream inventory is neutral. The overall replenishment ability is limited, and the large mid - stream inventory suppresses the glass valuation in the futures market [13] - **Outlook**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the mid - stream and downstream inventories are moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [13][15] - **Soda Ash** - **Core Logic**: The supply increases month - on - month, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, the demand for heavy soda ash weakens due to the expected decline in glass daily melting, the downstream procurement of light soda ash has little change, the supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious change, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. The downstream demand has a downward trend, and the dynamic oversupply expectation further intensifies. The upstream has no obvious production reduction recently, and the spot price may return to the price - cut channel [13] - **Outlook**: The cold repair of glass increases, the short - term supply stops production and increases, but the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [15] 3.5 Steel - **Core Logic**: The spot market trading is weak, the steel mill profitability is stable, the resumption of production of steel mills is slow, the iron water output increases slightly month - on - month, the electric furnace begins to stop production one after another, the output of five major steel products decreases slightly, the demand in the off - season weakens seasonally, and the inventory accumulation pressure on the steel end is emerging, with the social inventory and rebar inventory accumulating significantly [7] - **Outlook**: The inventory accumulation pressure on the steel end in the off - season is emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, the futures market has short - term downward adjustment pressure, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downward space of the futures market is limited [7] 3.6 Iron Ore - **Core Logic**: The global shipping volume decreases slightly month - on - month due to the impact of tropical cyclones in Australia. If there are no other sudden disturbances, the supply side is expected to maintain a relatively loose pattern. The iron water output increases marginally, the rigid demand is still stable, the steel mill replenishment accelerates before the Spring Festival, and the support for the price may gradually weaken as the replenishment progresses. The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the overall inventory pressure is still increasing. The market sentiment has weakened recently, and the futures market is under pressure [7] - **Outlook**: The inventory pressure continues to increase, there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side, the current market has average expectations for post - holiday demand, the futures market is under pressure, but there are still macro expectations after the Spring Festival. After the rapid decline of the futures market, the pressure is released. It is expected to be under pressure and oscillate in the short - term [7][8] 3.7 Scrap Steel - **Core Logic**: The supply of scrap steel is expected to decline seasonally, the demand decreases significantly, and the inventory of steel enterprises increases [9] - **Outlook**: The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears its end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [9] 3.8 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2374.89, up 0.70%; the commodity 20 index is 2710.51, up 0.96%; the industrial product index is 2278.80, up 0.21%; the PPI commodity index is 1404.35, up 0.58% [104] - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index on February 9, 2026, is 1935.90, with a daily decline of 0.78%, a decline of 1.72% in the past 5 days, a decline of 5.10% in the past month, and a decline of 2.03% since the beginning of the year [105]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, with high production, declining downstream demand, and high inventory. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2] - The supply - demand mismatch in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved [5] Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1209 yuan/ton to 1190 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.57%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe dropped from 1145 yuan/ton to 1125 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.75%. The main basis increased from - 64 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.56% [6] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [12] Soda Ash Production - The production profit of heavy soda ash is at a historical low, with a profit of - 160.80 yuan/ton for the North China ammonia - soda process and - 97 yuan/ton for the East China co - production process [15] - The weekly industry operating rate is 83.25% [18] - The weekly output is 77.43 tons, including 41.40 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [20] - From 2023 to 2025, there have been and are planned new production capacities. The total new capacity in 2023 is 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and the planned new capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with 100 tons actually put into production [21] Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 97.06% [24] - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 14.98 tons, and the operating rate is 71.86% [27] - The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is in a downward trend, and the demand for soda ash is weakening [5] Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories is 158.11 tons, an increase of 2.39% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [33] Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, and supply - demand differences, as well as growth rates in capacity, production, apparent supply, and total demand [34] Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The full - production time of the second - phase production line of Yuanning Energy is expected to be postponed [3] - **Negative factors**: Enterprises' production lines are expected to resume, and there is no new maintenance plan, so production is expected to remain high. The downstream photovoltaic glass has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the volatility of oil prices driven by geopolitical factors, particularly the ongoing US-Iran negotiations and sanctions impacting Iranian oil exports [2][3][35] - WTI crude oil for March closed at $63.55 per barrel, down 3.41% for the week, while Brent crude for April settled at $68.05 per barrel, down 2.48% [2][35] - The US has imposed sanctions on multiple entities and individuals related to Iranian oil trade, aiming to significantly reduce Iran's illegal oil and petrochemical exports [3][35] Group 2 - The EU is proposing a new round of sanctions against Russia, which includes a complete ban on maritime services for Russian oil and restrictions on LNG tanker services [3][35] - Venezuela's oil exports to the US surged threefold in January, reaching an average of 284,000 barrels per day, driven by relaxed US policies [4][36] - The US oil production has dropped to its lowest level since November 2024, at 13.22 million barrels per day, due to severe winter storms [5][37] Group 3 - Domestic demand for refined oil has seen a price increase, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 205 yuan/ton and 195 yuan/ton respectively [6][38] - The market is expected to experience fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical uncertainties, with investors likely to adopt a cautious approach ahead of the holiday season [6][38] - The overall oil market is influenced by both geopolitical narratives and supply dynamics, with potential for significant price volatility [6][38]

2 0 2 6 - 0 2 - 0 7 纯碱玻璃产业链周度报告 研究员：于小栋 从业资格号：F3081787 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0019360 目 录 C O N T E N T S 01 纯碱市场综述 02 月度供需 03 基差价差 04 纯碱市场价格 05 纯碱供应 06 纯碱需求 07 纯碱库存 08 仓单数量 /有效预报 09 地产相关数据 01 玻璃市场综述 02 月度供需 03 基差价差 04 玻璃市场价格 05 玻璃供应 06 玻璃需求 07 玻璃库存 纯碱 玻璃 01 纯碱市场综述 目录 目 录 市场综述 | | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 项 目 | 备 注 | 当 期 | 环 比 | 下期(E) | 下下期(E) | 思 路 | | | 总产量（万吨） | | 77.43 | -0.88 | 77.43 | 77.75 | | | 供 应 | 重质产量（万吨） | | 41.4 | -0.71 | 41.40 | 41.57 | 周产量整体高位运行，新产能尚有增量潜力；后 ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Industry Weekly Report [1] - Date: February 6, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 3. Core Viewpoints - **Crude Oil**: Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with geopolitical situation as the main driver. In the medium - and long - term, supply growth is expected to outpace demand, leading to inventory accumulation [7][8][12]. - **Polyester**: PTA is expected to have a stable market, while ethylene glycol may continue to decline in the short term. Demand for polyester may decline further before the Spring Festival but is expected to improve after the holiday [30][32][37]. - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp prices are expected to adjust in a range before the holiday, affected by the weakening downstream procurement and the overall market. [44][45] - **Soda Ash**: In the short term, the soda ash market is likely to remain weak and volatile. In the medium - and long - term, it is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities after rebounds, and pay close attention to supply - demand changes and policy trends [92]. 4. Summary by Directory Crude Oil 4.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices all declined last week. The WTI main contract fell 3.35% to $63.54/barrel, Brent fell 3.05% to $67.7/barrel, and SC fell 1.98% to 461.5 yuan/barrel [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term focus on the US - Iran situation, and expect oil prices to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to whether US military actions have a substantial impact on production and transportation facilities [8]. 4.2. Fundamental Changes - **Geopolitical Factors**: The US - Iran nuclear negotiations are full of uncertainties. Iran is important in the crude oil market, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz may affect oil prices. The US - India agreement on Russian oil imports is also uncertain [9][10]. - **Supply and Demand**: US crude oil production decreased last week, and refinery operating rates declined slightly. EIA and IEA are both pessimistic about the oil market in 2026, expecting supply to grow faster than demand and inventory to accumulate [11][12]. Polyester 4.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: PTA prices fell last week due to increased inventory and weak downstream demand. Ethylene glycol prices also declined due to weakening cost support and seasonal demand decline [30]. - **Operation Suggestions**: PTA is expected to have a stable market, while ethylene glycol may continue to decline in the short term [32]. 4.2. Main Driving Forces - **Downstream Consumption**: Polyester operating rates are expected to decline further, and the demand for PTA and ethylene glycol is likely to weaken before the Spring Festival but may improve after the holiday [33]. - **PTA**: PTA supply may slightly decrease, but the overall supply - demand situation remains unchanged. PX prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [34][35]. - **MEG**: The开工 rate of the ethylene glycol industry increased slightly last week, and the inventory at major ports in East China increased. The short - term supply - demand structure is still weak [36][37]. Paper Pulp 4.1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Review**: As of Thursday, the pulp 05 contract closed at 5,254 yuan/ton, down 1.61% week - on - week. Spot prices of various wood pulps also declined [44]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, paper pulp prices are expected to adjust in a range before the holiday, affected by downstream procurement and market sentiment [45]. 4.2. Fundamental Changes - **Pulp Shipment Volume**: In November, the shipment volume of coniferous pulp from the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries decreased, while that of broad - leaf pulp increased [46]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In December, China's pulp import volume decreased month - on - month and year - on - year [53]. - **Pulp Inventory**: As of the end of November, the inventory days of global producers' coniferous and broad - leaf pulp increased. As of the end of January, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased [59]. Soda Ash 4.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The main contract of soda ash (SA605) fluctuated widely last week, with the price center moving down. Production decreased slightly, demand weakened, and inventory increased [85]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Do not easily go long. In the short term, the market is likely to remain weak and volatile. In the medium - and long - term, look for short - selling opportunities after rebounds [92]. 4.2. Soda Ash Market Situation - **Supply**: The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of China's soda ash industry decreased slightly last week, and the weekly production decreased. New production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure remains high [93][94]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of February 5, the inventory of soda ash enterprises increased, indicating an imbalance between supply and demand [103][104]. - **Spot Market**: The domestic soda ash spot market was weak and volatile, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton next week [106][108]. - **Downstream**: The float glass industry is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand and increasing inventory, which has a negative impact on soda ash demand. The photovoltaic glass market is in a "weak - stable" state, and the long - term overcapacity problem remains [109][110][112]. - **Summary**: The soda ash market is facing a structural imbalance. The key to solving the problem lies in expanding exports and accelerating the clearance of backward production capacity [113].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Views - The glass and soda ash markets are oscillating weakly with inventory accumulation and weak spot sales. The double - silicon market has insufficient supply - demand contradictions and is oscillating [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the glass futures oscillated weakly, and the spot market price remained stable with mediocre sales. This week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers was 53.064 million heavy cases, a 0.95% increase from the previous week [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: There are disturbances on the supply side, and production is expected to decrease. Rising coal prices have pushed up costs, and the inventory pressure on glass factories is not high, leading to a price rebound. However, the supply - demand is still loose, and the industry faces pressure without significant demand improvement. Attention should be paid to cold repairs of production lines and industrial policies [1]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the soda ash futures oscillated weakly, and the market was cautious. Downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases. This week, the soda ash inventory was 1.5811 million tons, a 1.33% increase from the previous week [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. After some alkali plants completed maintenance, supply increased. Considering new projects and the expected increase in cold repairs of float glass, the production profit of soda ash enterprises needs to be suppressed. Attention should be paid to changes in float glass production lines and new soda ash projects [1]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating weakly [2] Ferrosilicon Manganese - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon manganese futures oscillated. The spot market sentiment fluctuated with the futures, with strong wait - and - see sentiment. The price in the northern market was 5,590 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5,720 - 5,770 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The fundamentals have improved, and there is an expected increase in hot metal production, leading to marginal improvement in demand. However, the inventory pressure is still large, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The South African tariff policy may increase manganese ore costs, and attention should be paid to cost support and inventory changes [3]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures oscillated. The spot price was stable, and the trading atmosphere improved slightly, mainly for rigid demand. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production area was 5,250 - 5,350 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade was 5,850 - 6,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is controllable. Enterprises have actively reduced production loads. With the resumption of steel mills, demand is expected to improve marginally. However, the overall over - capacity suppresses the price increase. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction and power price policies in production areas [3]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating [4]

黑色建材日报 2026-02-06 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3110 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 11 元/吨（0.354%）。当日注册仓单 16931 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 179.82 万手，环比减少 6899 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价格 为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3230 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约收盘 价为 3274 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 9 元/吨（0.275%）。 当日注册仓单 199447 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合 约持仓量为 148.27 万手 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Haihua's stock reached a daily limit of 6.3 yuan on February 5, driven by factors such as the bottom adjustment in the soda ash industry, rising bromine prices, and the company's strategic projects [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Shandong Haihua's stock closed at 6.3 yuan, hitting the daily limit without opening it [1] - The closing order funds amounted to 127 million yuan, representing 2.26% of its circulating market value [1] Group 2: Market Factors - The soda ash industry is currently in a bottom adjustment phase, with market speculation on policy support and expectations of a cyclical rebound [1] - Bromine prices have been rising, with a reported price of 41,400 yuan/ton on February 3, reflecting a 9.52% increase over 15 days [1] - The company's reliance on overseas sources for bromine is at 66%, highlighting the scarcity value of its bromine resources due to geopolitical disturbances [1] Group 3: Company Initiatives - The company is advancing a 200,000 tons/year sodium bicarbonate project to enhance its main business's risk resistance [1] - Holding a 29% stake in Zhongyan Alkali Industry strengthens raw material security and emphasizes the synergy within the industry chain [1] Group 4: Capital Flow - On February 5, the net inflow of main funds was 132 million yuan, accounting for 53.99% of the total transaction volume [1] - Retail investors experienced a net outflow of 64.77 million yuan, representing 26.53% of the total transaction volume [1] - The stock is associated with state-owned enterprise reform and is considered a hot stock in the soda ash concept [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating to the precious metals and new energy sectors, and "Neutral" or "Wait-and-See" ratings to most other sectors [1] Core Viewpoints - In the context of low interest rates and an "asset shortage", domestic market funds remain abundant, and the stock index is expected to maintain a long-term upward trend despite short-term volatility [1] - The bond market is favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1] - Metal prices, including copper, aluminum, and nickel, are expected to stabilize and rebound after the release of macro risks, although they are subject to various supply and demand factors and policy uncertainties [1] - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policy. For example, palm oil is expected to be volatile and bullish, while cotton is in a situation of "support but no driver" [1] - Energy and chemical product prices are influenced by factors like crude oil prices, supply and demand fundamentals, and geopolitical situations. For instance, PTA and ethylene glycol prices have shown different trends due to various factors [1] Summary by Industry Macro Finance - Stock index: Expected to consolidate after a volume-reduced rebound, with a long-term upward trend intact due to abundant funds and economic recovery [1] - Bond futures: Favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but short-term interest rate risks are highlighted [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: After a significant correction, prices are expected to stabilize and rebound as macro risks are released, with industry fundamentals providing support [1] - Aluminum: Prices dropped due to rising macro risk aversion but are expected to recover as the supply narrative continues and risks are released [1] - Alumina: Supply exceeds demand, and prices are under pressure but are expected to fluctuate around the cost line [1] - Zinc: The cost center is stabilizing, and prices are expected to rebound after a correction due to increased risk aversion [1] - Nickel: Short-term prices are expected to stabilize and rebound, but long-term high global inventories may still exert pressure. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1] - Stainless steel: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate, with support from the raw material end and repeated macro sentiment. Short-term trading is recommended [1] - Tin: Prices rebounded strongly after a mine accident and significant deleveraging, but high short-term volatility requires risk management [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and silver: Market sentiment is recovering, but strong US PMI data may slow the short-term upward momentum [1] - Platinum and palladium: Short-term support exists due to Trump's plan to establish a key mineral reserve and the EU's consideration of sanctions on Russian platinum exports [1] - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing, and the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon declined in December [1] - Polysilicon: In the off-season for new energy vehicles, but storage demand is strong. Prices have risen significantly and may need to correct [1] - Lithium carbonate: Expectations are strong, but the spot market is weak, and the continuation of price increases lacks momentum [1] Black Metals - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Unilateral long positions are advised to exit, and cash-and-carry arbitrage positions can be considered due to factors such as high production and inventory [1] - Iron ore: There is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1] - Coke and coking coal: In the off-season, the focus is on capital sentiment, and opportunities to sell at high prices or establish cash-and-carry arbitrage positions are recommended [1] - Glass and soda ash: Weak current supply and demand are intertwined with strong expectations, and prices are under pressure in the medium term [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil: Expected to be volatile and bullish as the main consuming countries start purchasing and production areas may reduce production and inventory [1] - Cotton: Currently in a situation of "support but no driver", and future attention should be paid to factors such as policy, planting area, and seasonal demand [1] - Sugar: There is a consensus on short positions due to global oversupply and increased domestic production, but the cost provides support at lower prices [1] - Grains: Before the Spring Festival, the market is expected to correct as pre-holiday stocking ends and funds take profits [1] - Soybeans: Unilateral expectations are for a weakening trend due to factors such as expected rainfall in Argentina and sufficient Brazilian supply [1] - Pulp: It is advisable to wait and see due to supply disturbances and weakening demand after restocking [1] - Logs: The spot price is rising, and the futures price is expected to increase due to a decrease in arrivals and an increase in foreign quotes [1] - Hogs: The spot price is stabilizing, and demand is supported, but production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may ease. Prices are expected to correct in the short term [1] - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - Asphalt: Profits are high, and the demand for catch-up construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan may be falsified [1] - Shanghai rubber: The raw material cost provides support, but downstream demand weakens before the festival, and the futures-spot price difference has widened [1] - BR rubber: The cost of butadiene provides support, and there is an expectation of increased exports in the long term. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with an upward trend in the long term [1] - PTA: The PX market is strong, driving up the prices of chemical products. Domestic PTA production is increasing, and the negative feedback from polyester factory production cuts is limited [1] - Ethylene glycol: Overseas prices have rebounded, and the reduction in Middle East exports has boosted market confidence. Speculative demand has increased [1] - Styrene: The futures price has rebounded due to improved supply and demand fundamentals and reduced inventory pressure [1] - Methanol: Affected by the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease, but downstream negative feedback is significant, resulting in a mixed situation [1] - PE: The price has returned to a reasonable range, and demand is weak during the holiday after pre-holiday stocking [1] - PP: Supply pressure is high, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price has returned to a reasonable range [1] - PVC: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current fundamentals are poor, and there may be a rush to export [1] - LPG: The CP price is rising, and the demand side is short-term bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price [1] Shipping - Container shipping on the European route: Freight rates have peaked and declined before the festival, and airlines are expected to raise prices after the off-season in March [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2026-2-5 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日熔量整体延续下滑趋势， 纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1165元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1229元/吨，基差为-64元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存154.42万吨，较前一周增加1.51%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面不改疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、远兴能源二期产线满产时间预期延后。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、近期企业产线面临恢复，且 ...