1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market cooled last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate in the bottom - range. The black - series is still in a bottom - oscillating pattern and is sensitive to marginal news. Pay attention to the destocking progress of hot - rolled coils, the strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their potential marginal impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [3]. - For iron ore, the overseas shipping season is entering a slow period, and the supply pressure may be marginally relieved. Iron - water production has limited resumption, and the inventory structure problem remains unsolved. Steel mills are starting to replenish their stocks before the Spring Festival, creating room for a relative price increase. Monitor the stock - replenishment and iron - water production rhythm of steel mills [6]. - The long - term bullish sentiment in the commodity market will continue, mainly centered around precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Other sectors are affected by the spill - over of market sentiment, and the scope of sentiment influence may shrink. Be aware of the impact of the high - level fluctuations of leading varieties on market sentiment [9]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market will be influenced by the overall market sentiment and the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon and the supply contraction for ferrosilicon. Focus on potential restrictions on manganese ore exports and "dual - carbon" policies [10]. - The decline of coking coal and coke prices last week was mainly due to the weakening of market sentiment. In the future, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market will continue, but with short - term fluctuations. Coking coal and coke are expected to show an oscillatingly strong price trend [15][16]. - For industrial silicon, with the reduction of production on the supply side and the weakening of demand, it still faces inventory - building pressure and is expected to have an oscillatingly weak price trend. Monitor the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [19]. - For polysilicon, the market is in a wait - and - see state. The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to spot transactions and exchange risk - control measures [22]. - For glass, the supply - demand pattern is in a loose balance, with no obvious marginal driver. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 1015 - 1200 yuan/ton [25]. - For soda ash, the supply - demand game continues, and there is no obvious driving factor. The price is expected to maintain a weak consolidation trend in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 1123 - 1310 yuan/ton [27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products a. Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3163 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.094%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 61,680 tons, an increase of 1510 tons. The main - contract open interest was 1.7553 million lots, an increase of 70,217 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai summary prices increased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3315 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.241%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 194,362 tons, unchanged. The main - contract open interest was 1.5147 million lots, an increase of 66,309 lots. The Lecong and Shanghai summary prices increased by 20 and 30 yuan/ton respectively [2]. b. Strategy Views - The production of hot - rolled coils has slightly increased, the apparent demand has improved, but the inventory is high and the destocking is slow. The apparent demand for rebar has increased significantly, the production is at a medium level, and the inventory is basically flat. The overall performance is neutral [3]. Iron Ore a. Market Quotes - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 812.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.12% (- 1.00). The open interest changed by - 3540 lots to 648,900 lots. The weighted open interest was 995,200 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 819 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.72 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.74% [5]. b. Strategy Views - Supply: The year - end shipping rush of mines has ended, and the overseas iron - ore shipping volume has continued to decline. The shipping volume from Brazil has decreased significantly, and the shipping of Rio Tinto and BHP has decreased. The shipping from non - mainstream countries has increased, and the near - term arrival volume has continued to rise [6]. - Demand: The daily average pig - iron output was 228.01 tons, a decrease from the previous period. There were both blast - furnace overhauls and restarts. The profitability of steel mills has risen to nearly 40% [6]. - Inventory: The port inventory has continued to increase, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills has also increased [6]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon a. Market Quotes - On January 16, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 0.72% at 5828 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 82 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.71% at 5570 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, with a basis of 230 yuan/ton [8]. b. Strategy Views - The decline in the prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon was due to the weakening of market sentiment. In the future, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market will continue, but the main focus is on precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Other sectors are affected by sentiment spill - over [9]. - The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is loose, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market will be influenced by market sentiment, the cost - push from manganese ore, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon [10]. Coking Coal and Coke a. Market Quotes - On January 16, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 1.39% at 1171.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Shanxi had different basis levels. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 1.60% at 1717.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Rizhao and Lvliang had different basis levels [12]. b. Strategy Views - The decline in coking coal and coke prices last week was due to the weakening of market sentiment. In the future, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market will continue, but with short - term fluctuations. The supply - demand of coking coal and coke is relatively balanced, and the prices are expected to show an oscillatingly strong trend [15][16]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon a. Market Quotes - For industrial silicon, the main contract (SI2605) closed at 8605 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.43% (- 125). The weighted open interest increased by 6473 lots to 371,875 lots. The spot prices of different grades in East China remained unchanged [18]. - For polysilicon, the main contract (PS2605) closed at 50,200 yuan/ton on Friday, up 3.14% (+ 1530). The weighted open interest decreased by 2173 lots to 84,296 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon increased [20]. b. Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is also weakening. It still faces inventory - building pressure and is expected to have an oscillatingly weak price trend [19]. - For polysilicon, the market is in a wait - and - see state. The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [22]. Glass and Soda Ash a. Market Quotes - For glass, the main contract closed at 1103 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1.57% (+ 17). The inventory decreased by 2505,000 cases week - on - week. The positions of the top 20 long and short holders changed [24]. - For soda ash, the main contract closed at 1192 yuan/ton on Friday, down 0.08% (- 1). The inventory increased by 0.23 million tons week - on - week. The positions of the top 20 long and short holders changed [26]. b. Strategy Views - For glass, the supply - demand pattern is in a loose balance, with no obvious marginal driver. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 1015 - 1200 yuan/ton [25]. - For soda ash, the supply - demand game continues, and there is no obvious driving factor. The price is expected to maintain a weak consolidation trend in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 1123 - 1310 yuan/ton [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The glass industry is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with the daily melting of float glass dropping to a certain low level, and there are expectations for both cold repairs and ignitions in the future. The demand is weak in both reality and expectation, making it difficult to have a trend - based movement. The policy may also affect the supply, so changes in supply expectations should be monitored. The price rhythm is hard to grasp [1]. - The soda ash industry is mainly cost - priced. Although the supply side occasionally reduces production, new production capacities are gradually ramping up, and the daily output is at an absolute high. Without supply disruptions, the expectation of oversupply remains consistent, and the valuation has limited upward flexibility. As the cold repair expectations of float glass and photovoltaic glass resurface, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline month - on - month [1]. - In reality, the high inventory of glass in the middle - stream needs to be digested, resulting in a short - lived positive feedback between futures and spot. For soda ash, the production still has room to increase, and the capacity expansion cycle is not over, so the expectation of oversupply persists [1]. - The prices of glass and soda ash lack clear trends, showing a weak and volatile pattern with limited short - term elasticity [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Glass: The daily melting of float glass has declined, with both cold repair and ignition expectations. The demand is weak, and the policy may affect supply. The high middle - stream inventory needs to be digested [1]. - Soda ash: Cost - based pricing, new capacities are increasing, daily output is high, and there is an expectation of oversupply. The cold repair of glass will reduce rigid demand [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Glass: The overall demand is weak, with both cold repair and ignition expectations, and the middle - stream maintains high inventory. The 05 contract is more about expectations, but the fundamentals lack clear drivers. - Strategy: The prices of glass and soda ash lack clear trends, showing a weak and volatile pattern with limited short - term elasticity [5]. 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - **Glass**: - Spot prices: There was no change in the prices of various glass products on January 18, 2026, compared with the previous day [8]. - Futures prices: The glass 05 contract increased by 17 yuan to 1103 yuan on January 16, 2026, with a daily increase of 1.57%. The 09 contract increased by 13 yuan to 1209 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.09%. The 01 contract decreased by 941 yuan to 0 yuan, with a daily decrease of 100% [8]. - Production and sales: On January 16, 2026, the production - sales ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 135, 90, 91, and 105 respectively [9]. - **Soda ash**: - Spot prices: There was little change in the market prices of heavy and light soda ash in various regions on January 16, 2026, compared with the previous day [10]. - Futures prices: The soda ash 05 contract decreased by 1 yuan to 1192 yuan on January 16, 2026, with a daily decrease of 0.08%. The 09 contract increased by 3 yuan to 1259 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.24%. The 01 contract decreased by 1 yuan to 1115 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.09% [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: There are still some glass production lines with cold repair expectations to be fulfilled before the Spring Festival, and the supply is still shrinking [11]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - Whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies. - The National Development and Reform Commission will effectively manage high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects starting from 2026, and the market may have new expectations for supply - side policies. - There is still room for positive feedback between futures and spot for both glass and soda ash when the futures prices rise. - Shahe glass has ignition expectations, the high middle - stream inventory persists, and the far - month demand lacks upward flexibility, with differences in the degree of demand decline. - The second - phase first and second lines of Alxa's 100 - million - ton new production capacities are gradually ramping up, maintaining long - term supply pressure. The cold repair expectation of glass will affect the rigid demand for soda ash [14]. - Monitor the production - sales situation, spot prices of glass, and the spot trading situation of soda ash [15]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Unilateral Trends and Capital Movements - Glass: The expectation of the main 05 contract is unclear, with weak supply and demand. The near - term spot pressure is high, and the middle - stream has high inventory. The far - month has expectations of supply reduction and cost increase, but the demand is unclear [16]. 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structures - Glass: The 5 - 9 spread fluctuates mainly in a range, without a clear direction, as the supply - demand expectations are uncertain, and funds are on the sidelines [20]. - Soda ash: It maintains a C - shaped structure. With the launch of new production capacities, the long - term situation may deteriorate again [21]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Glass: Natural gas production lines are in losses, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines have small profits or are on the verge of break - even [37]. - Soda ash: The cash cost of the ammonia - soda process (in Shandong) is around 1210 - 1220 yuan/ton, and the cash cost of the combined - soda process (mainly in Central China) is around 1080 - 1090 yuan/ton [37]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 6 - 7 million tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with limited impact [43]. - Soda ash: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 18 - 21 million tons, basically in line with expectations, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, with a significantly higher proportion than last year. The export in November was close to 19 million tons, maintaining high export expectations [43]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Supply Side and Projections - **Glass**: The daily melting of glass has dropped to around 150,000 tons. There are still some cold - repaired production lines to be fulfilled before the Spring Festival, and the daily melting is expected to decline further [49]. - **Soda ash**: The current daily output of soda ash has increased to over 110,000 tons. The first and second lines of the second - phase project in Alxa (with a total of 2.8 million tons) have been ignited and are gradually producing products [54]. 3.5.2 Demand Side and Projections - **Glass**: The middle - stream inventory remains high, and the spot pressure persists. As of the end of December, the deep - processing orders for glass were 8.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. The deep - processing raw material inventory was 8.4 days, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.96%. The cumulative apparent demand for glass in 2025 is estimated to have decreased by 7.5%. The terminal demand remains weak, and the middle - stream replenishes inventory at low prices [56]. - **Soda ash**: The total daily melting of float glass and photovoltaic glass is 238,000 tons, showing a slight decline, and the daily rigid demand for soda ash is about 47,600 tons. With the cold repair expectation of glass, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline month - on - month. The finished product inventory of photovoltaic glass remains high, with an inventory period of about 39 days, and the industry chain is in a state of oversupply. The cumulative apparent demand for soda ash in 2025 is estimated to have decreased by 0.2%. The rigid demand for soda ash declines slightly month - on - month, and the middle and lower reaches mainly replenish inventory at low prices [67]. 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Glass**: According to Longzhong data, the total inventory of glass factories is 53.013 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 2.505 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89%. The inventory period is 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous period. The upstream inventory has been transferred to the middle - stream [75]. - **Soda ash**: The inventory of soda ash is 1.575 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0023 million tons. Among them, the light - soda inventory is 0.837 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0005 million tons, and the heavy - soda inventory is 0.738 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0018 million tons. The inventory in the delivery warehouse is 0.3877 million tons (an increase of 0.00104 million tons). The total inventory of soda ash factories and delivery warehouses is 1.9627 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.00127 million tons. The upstream inventory fluctuates at a high level [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Glass**: Short - term weakness and medium - term oscillation. Short - term factors include forward premium, inventory pressure, and off - season influence. Mid - term bullish drivers are anti - deflation, anti - involution policies, and potential production cuts in the glass industry. However, high forward premium, high inventory, and supply contraction factors also exist. The price is expected to fluctuate between the upward drive of production cut expectations and the downward pressure of weak demand and weak basis [4][6]. - **Soda Ash**: Short - term weakness and medium - term oscillation. The core driving forces of pressure are supply surplus, high forward premium in futures, and potential demand reduction from downstream production cuts. It needs large - scale production cuts in soda ash or continuous improvement in the glass industry to drive the market. The price is supported by limited downward space and suppressed by long - term supply surplus and potential production cuts in the glass industry [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - Current production capacity is about 150,000 tons per day, with a peak of 178,000 tons per day in 2021. In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines was 21,330 tons, and that of newly ignited production lines was 15,010 tons. There are also potential new ignition, old - line复产, and cold - repair production lines with certain daily melting volumes. Usually, production cuts are likely to occur from the end of the fourth quarter to the first quarter [10][11][15]. Price and Profit - Prices in most regions are stable with little change, but market transactions declined in the second half of the week. The basis strengthened due to the decline in futures prices. Profits for different fuel types are negative, with petroleum coke at about - 7 yuan/ton, natural gas at about - 186 yuan/ton, and coal at about - 74 yuan/ton [19][24][28]. Inventory and Downstream开工 - After New Year's Day, transactions improved and inventory decreased, but transactions declined in the second half of the week. Current inventory is relatively high, and regional arbitrage shows little change in price differences [36][41]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - Market transactions have weakened recently, and this situation is expected to continue. The prices of 2.0mm and 3.2mm coated panels are stable compared with last week [45][47]. Capacity and Inventory - Market transactions are weak, and inventory in some regions has increased. The sample inventory days are about 38.94 days, a 3.07% decrease from the previous week [49][55]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Some plants have resumed production, and the operating rate is gradually increasing. The overall capacity utilization rate is 86.82%, up 2.43% from last week. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.575 million tons, a 0.15% increase from last week and a 10.06% increase year - on - year [2][58][62]. Price and Profit - The low - end price in the Shahe area is 1,140 yuan/ton, and the market price has slightly decreased. Factory ex - factory prices are mostly stable. The basis strengthened as futures prices declined. The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 40 yuan/ton, and that of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 58 yuan/ton [70][73][77].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★★★ (indicating a more distinct upward trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but poor operability on the market) [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows a mixed trend with different products having their own supply - demand and price characteristics. Some products are affected by supply shortages, while others are influenced by demand changes, geopolitical factors, and production schedules [2][3][5]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated within the day. Supply was tight, inventory was controllable, and some offers continued to rise. Downstream factories followed well, driving up the trading center [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures also fluctuated. For polyethylene, pre - sales during the Spring Festival continued, the overall transaction center of spot goods moved up, and production confidence was enhanced. For polypropylene, although the futures maintained a high level, the market was cautious due to concerns about demand [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures fluctuated, and spot prices in East China continued to decline slightly. Supply was abundant, and the port was accumulating inventory. In the short - term, it would fluctuate due to geopolitical risks, and in the long - term, de - stocking was difficult [3]. - Styrene futures had a narrow - range consolidation. The supply - demand was in a tight balance, the port inventory was decreasing, the export market was good, and the downstream was bullish [3]. Polyester - As oil prices fell, the cost support for PX and PTA weakened. In the short - term, the upward drive for PX was weak, but the medium - term outlook was positive. PTA's main driver was from raw materials, and the processing margin would moderately recover [5]. - For ethylene glycol, new domestic plants were put into operation, while overseas plants stopped production. The industry was mixed. In the short - term, falling oil prices were a major negative, but in the second quarter, there were expectations of improvement [5]. - Short - fiber enterprises had low inventory, but downstream orders were weak. Demand would continue to decline, and the price would fluctuate with raw materials [5]. - Bottle - chip production decreased, downstream demand was for rigid needs, and the processing margin recovered, but long - term capacity pressure remained [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Due to the cooling of the geopolitical situation in Iran, the methanol market declined. Overseas plant operation rates were low, and the port was de - stocking. However, with demand weakening, the de - stocking speed was expected to slow down, and the market was in a multi - empty game [6]. - Urea futures declined slightly, while spot prices were stable with a slight increase. With the approaching of spring demand and positive macro factors, the market was expected to be strong [6]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC weakened within the day. Although production increased slightly and exports of some enterprises increased, downstream demand was weak, and inventory increased. In 2026, it was expected to reduce capacity, and the futures price center would rise [7]. - Caustic soda was in a weak position, and the industry was accumulating inventory. Although the profit of integrated enterprises was okay, the industry was generally in a loss, and it was necessary to track whether there would be production cuts [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fluctuated within the day. Production continued to rise, supply pressure was high, downstream procurement was weak, and the industry was accumulating inventory. It was recommended to short on rebounds [8]. - Glass was strong within the day and continued to de - stock. However, production lines were in a loss, capacity was compressed, and demand was insufficient. It might accumulate inventory seasonally, but in the long - term, supply reduction would relieve pressure, and it was recommended to buy on dips [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core of soda ash futures is "strong supply, weak demand, high inventory, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. Fundamentals are dominated by negative factors. There is a long - short game in the market, but the bears are in the dominant position, and there is no substantial rebound in the short term." The SA2605 main contract fluctuated weakly in the range of 1,190 - 1,230 yuan/ton this week and closed at 1,193 yuan/ton on January 16th. The 20 - day moving average formed a suppression. The trading volume of SA2605 exceeded 5.71 million lots this week, and the open interest reached 1.196 million lots, making it the most active contract in the entire market, indicating high - level participation of funds. The net short position of the main contract continued to increase, with the bears increasing their positions more aggressively than the bulls, and the market sentiment was bearish. - The core suppression factors are strong supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Although there were small rebounds driven by the sentiment in the chemical sector, they lacked fundamental support and quickly declined. Downstream players were highly cautious, mainly making purchases based on rigid demand, and speculative demand was not sustainable. In the short term, the market is expected to remain fluctuating weakly, with the reference range of 1,180 - 1,230 yuan/ton. In the medium term, the oversupply situation is difficult to change, and it is advisable to short on rallies, paying attention to the pressure level around 1,300 yuan/ton. It is recommended to mainly observe or take small - short positions in the short term and set stop - losses. In the medium term, short positions can be established after rebounds [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - This week, the fundamental pressure on the soda ash market remained unchanged. The supply side continued to operate at a high level, inventory continued to accumulate, and the weak demand for heavy soda ash dragged down the overall trend. Although the futures price fluctuated downward, the downward space was limited due to the cost bottom line and the structural demand for light soda ash. The market is still in a volatile pattern of "weak reality and expectation - based game" in the short term [2] Supply - The weekly output of soda ash this week was 77.53 tons. As of January 15th, the national operating rate of soda ash remained at a high level of 86.82%, among which the operating rate of the ammonia - soda process was 89.95%, and that of the co - production process was 78.88%. The capacity utilization rate was stable, and the release rhythm of new production capacity did not slow down. The weekly output reached 75.36 tons, showing a significant month - on - month increase, and the pressure on the supply side continued [2] Demand - The daily melting volume of float glass this week was 150,700 tons, an increase of 680 tons month - on - month, while that of photovoltaic glass was 87,200 tons, a decrease of 950 tons. The demand for heavy soda ash was affected by the slight decline in the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash continued to weaken, with low purchasing willingness from downstream players. The operating rate of the lithium carbonate industry remained above 87%, providing stable support for light soda ash and becoming the main supporting force on the demand side [2] Inventory - As of January 15th, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers nationwide was 1.575 million tons, an increase of 10,300 tons (+0.66%) week - on - week, with inventory accumulating for multiple consecutive weeks, and the inventory pressure showed no sign of relief. The inventory of heavy soda ash increased from 720,700 tons on January 12th to 738,000 tons, an increase of 17,300 tons week - on - week, reflecting the weak demand in the downstream glass industry. The inventory of light soda ash slightly decreased from 844,000 tons to 837,000 tons, indicating relatively resilient demand on the light soda ash side. The social inventory increased slightly, with the total amount exceeding 380,000 tons, an increase of over 10,000 tons. The previous replenishment transactions of futures - cash traders were good, and enterprises were gradually making deliveries [2] Profit - The production cost of soda ash remained at a high level, and the industry as a whole was in a state of deep loss. Although the price fluctuations of steam coal pushed up the cost, the long - term loss in the industry suppressed the willingness for active production cuts. The cost line became an important support for the price decline, forming a weak equilibrium pattern of "low profit + high inventory" [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, steel products are supported by the cost side with limited downside, but lack upward drivers, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakening, with a high shipping level, slow steel - mill resumption, increasing port inventories, and high valuations, so the short - term price is weak but with limited downside [21] - The coking coal supply - demand structure is still in surplus, but the surplus is not serious. The inventory structure is expected to improve, and the macro sentiment is the key factor for price trends [32] - Ferroalloys have large supply pressure, but are supported by the cost side, and may show bottom - oscillating trends after a correction [49] - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high in the long - term, with increasing over - supply expectations. High inventories in the upstream and mid - stream limit prices [63] - Before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may be cold - repaired, and the high inventory in the mid - stream needs to be digested, with existing spot pressure [87] 3. Summary of Each Section Steel Products - **Price Data**: - On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed compared to the previous day, and the month - spreads also showed different degrees of change. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3242 yuan/ton, up from 3165 yuan/ton on the previous day [4] - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also changed slightly, and the basis also had corresponding fluctuations [8][10] - The roll - rebar spread and the spot roll - rebar price difference also showed different trends [15] - The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke remained stable [18] Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The shipping volume of iron ore is at a moderately high level with a 12% year - on - year increase. The steel - mill resumption is slow, with a 1.5 - million - ton week - on - week decrease in molten iron production to 228 million tons. Port inventories are continuously accumulating, exceeding historical highs [21] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts generally decreased compared to the previous day, and the basis also changed. For example, the closing price of the 01 contract was 806.5 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the previous day [22] Coking Coal and Coke - **Fundamentals**: The coking coal supply - demand structure is in surplus, but the surplus is not serious compared to previous years. With the improvement of demand and the reduction of domestic mine production during the Spring Festival, the inventory structure is expected to improve [32] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the coking coal and coke contract spreads, the basis, and the production profits all changed compared to the previous day and the previous week [33][35][36] Ferroalloys - **Fundamentals**: Silicon iron has started to accumulate inventory, and the inventory of silicon manganese has decreased week - on - week, but the inventory base is still large. The supply pressure of ferroalloys is large, but they are supported by the cost side [49] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the basis, contract spreads, and spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese all changed compared to the previous day and the previous week [50][51] Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: With the release of new production capacity, the daily output of soda ash has reached a new high, and the over - supply expectation is intensifying. The inventory in the upstream and mid - stream is high, which restricts the price. However, exports in November were close to 190,000 tons, alleviating domestic pressure to some extent [63] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash contracts and the month - spreads changed, and the spot prices in different regions remained stable [64] Glass - **Fundamentals**: Before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may be cold - repaired, which may affect long - term pricing and market expectations. The high inventory in the mid - stream needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [87] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of glass contracts and the month - spreads changed significantly. For example, the glass 01 contract dropped to 0 yuan/ton from 941 yuan/ton on the previous day [88]

纯碱，切准 2026 年的脉搏 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 化工小组 研究员: 潘兆敏 从业资格号：F3064781 投资咨询号：Z0022343 初审： 张莎 从业资格号:F03088817 投资咨询证号:Z0019577 复审： 赵肖肖 从业资格号：F0303938 投资咨询号：Z0022015 本文主题，复盘 2025 年纯碱走势和价格背后的内在逻辑，为切 准 2026 年纯碱脉搏提供理论依据和逻辑支撑。 第一部分：纯碱 2025 年走势回顾和内在逻辑分析 回顾 2025 年，纯碱市场整体呈现趋势性下行格局，全年主要经 历两波行情。第一阶段为年初至 6 月底，价格自【1400，1600】元/ 吨区间震荡回落至【1150，1200】元/吨附近。第二阶段始于 7 月初， 价格自 1150 元/吨低点展开反弹，高点触及 1450-1530 元/吨区间， 此后再度转入下行通道，并于 12 月跌破 1100 元/吨，创出年内新低。 全年走势可概括为"下跌—反弹—再下跌"的弱势循环。 其内在逻辑清晰：行情主线是供需过剩背景下价格的趋势性回归， 其中供应强、需求弱、库存高构成核心压力。阶 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-16 市场成交偏弱，铁矿小幅回落 玻璃纯碱：产销表现平淡，玻碱震荡运行 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日主力合约延续区间震荡走势，收盘价格小幅下探。现货市场报价持稳，厂家产销表现平淡，期现 市场交投氛围冷清。供需和逻辑：部分产线进入冷修，开工率有所回落，但新增产能逐步释放，供应收缩力度受 限；需求端受房地产开工淡季影响，浮法玻璃需求持续疲软，光伏玻璃需求以刚需采购为主，未能形成有效拉动。 整体而言，需求端的低迷状态抵消了供应端收缩带来的支撑作用。 纯碱：昨日纯碱主力合约呈现宽幅震荡下行态势，日环比下跌2.05%。现货端，报价随盘面同步走低，成交活跃度 一般，下游企业以刚需补库为主。供需与逻辑：开工率维持高位，整体累库趋势显著，供应压力持续凸显；临近 春节假期，下游产线冷修增多，市场节前补库预期偏弱，整体交投情绪趋于谨慎。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、浮法玻璃下游需求、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 双硅：供需矛盾不突出，铁合金震荡运行 市场分析 硅锰方面：昨日钢联公布了本周建材消费数据，整体看产销表现尚可，硅锰期货跟随黑色震 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: 博源化工 (Bohua Chemical) - **Industry**: Soda Ash Production Core Insights and Arguments - **Production Capacity Expansion**: The second phase of the 1 million tons soda ash production line is expected to be fully operational in Q1 2026, with an additional 1.8 million tons expected to begin trial production in January 2026 [2][4] - **New Projects**: Plans to launch a 400,000 tons sodium bicarbonate project and a 1.2 million tons comprehensive utilization project by mid-2026 [2][11] - **Impact of Competitor Shutdown**: The permanent shutdown of 苏尼特碱业 (Sunite Soda Industry) due to aging facilities and resource depletion is expected to optimize the overall asset structure of the company, with an estimated asset impairment of approximately 270 million yuan [2][6][7] - **Soda Ash Price Stability**: Current fluctuations in soda ash prices have a limited impact on profitability, with prices slightly decreasing by 10 to 20 yuan per ton in January 2026, but the spot market remains relatively stable [2][8] - **Operational Efficiency**: The company’s production facilities are operating at near full capacity with low inventory levels, indicating strong sales capabilities [2][9] Additional Important Information - **Natural Soda Reserves**: The company has significant natural soda reserves, with 123 million tons in Henan, sustainable for over 20 years, and 1.078 billion tons in Alashan, supporting over 40 years of mining [2][10] - **Litigation Liabilities**: The company faces a potential liability of approximately 1 billion yuan from a lawsuit with 蒙大矿业 (Mongolia Mining), with efforts underway to resolve this before the 2025 annual report [2][5][12] - **Cost Trends**: The complete cost of soda ash production at 银根矿 (Yinggen Mine) is around 1,100 yuan per ton, expected to decrease as production ramps up and coal prices decline [2][14] - **Market Dynamics**: The glass industry, a key downstream market, is projected to see a significant decline in daily melting capacity in 2025, which may impact sales [2][21] - **Downstream Demand**: Despite challenges in the broader industry, the company reports stable downstream demand with no significant inventory pressure [2][22] - **Maintenance Practices**: Regular maintenance of soda ash production facilities is conducted annually to ensure operational stability [2][23] - **Lack of Unified Industry Measures**: There are currently no coordinated measures within the soda ash industry to address price declines or production cuts, highlighting the fragmented nature of the market [2][20] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the company's operational strategies, market conditions, and future outlook.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Report Core Views Polyolefin Industry - Market short - covering sentiment cooled, spot trading worsened. For PE, HD - LLDPE spread narrowed, with increased marginal supply of LLDPE and weakening downstream demand in the off - season. For PP, supply and demand were both weak, with more maintenance, expected destocking in January, and improved balance. Pay attention to the implementation of future maintenance [2]. Methanol Industry - Methanol futures opened lower and then fluctuated narrowly, with light spot trading. Inland prices are expected to fluctuate, while port prices are under pressure due to factors such as low MTO profits and potential device maintenance [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure benzene has a weak short - term supply - demand pattern but is supported by the strong performance of downstream styrene. Styrene has short - term supply shortages but may accumulate inventory around the Spring Festival [8]. Natural Rubber Industry - Supply: Domestic production is ending, and raw material prices are rising. Demand: Some semi - steel tire export orders are increasing, and inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [9][10]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash futures are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with high inventory and weak downstream demand. Glass futures are also expected to decline, with weakening supply and demand in the off - season [11]. Urea Industry - Urea supply is high, but short - term regional agricultural demand boosts market confidence. Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream agricultural demand and plant restart schedules [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak, with increased supply and lack of demand improvement. PVC fundamentals are under pressure, with high supply, low demand, and inventory accumulation [13]. LPG Industry - No specific view provided in the content Crude Oil Industry - Oil prices fell on Thursday. Geopolitical risks have eased, and the supply - demand outlook is weak. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [17]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the Spring Festival and may be tight in the second quarter. PTA and MEG are expected to have weak supply - demand in January and February. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are mainly driven by raw materials [19]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Changes**: L2605 and L2609 closed down, PP2605 slightly up, PP2609 down. Some spreads and basis had significant changes [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased, while PE device and downstream weighted开工率 decreased, and PP device开工率 slightly increased [2]. Methanol Industry - **Price Changes**: MA2605 and MA2609 closed down, with significant changes in some spreads and basis [5]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased slightly, while port and social inventories decreased. Upstream and downstream开工率 had different changes [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Price Changes**: Many prices such as crude oil, pure benzene, and styrene decreased, with some spreads and basis changing [8]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Some开工率 increased, while some decreased. Pure benzene port inventory reached a record high, and styrene port inventory decreased [8]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Price Changes**: Spot prices of natural rubber decreased, and some spreads changed significantly [9]. - **Production,开工率, and Inventory**: Production in some regions changed, tire开工率 increased, and inventory in China continued to accumulate [9]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Price Changes**: Glass and soda ash prices were mostly stable, with some futures prices down [11]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Soda ash production increased, demand was weak, and inventory was high. Glass supply and demand were weak, and inventory was still relatively high year - on - year [11]. Urea Industry - **Price Changes**: Futures prices fluctuated down, and spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply was high, industrial demand was stable, and agricultural demand in some regions increased [12]. - **Inventory**: Factory and port inventories decreased [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Price Changes**: Caustic soda and PVC prices decreased slightly, with some spreads and basis changing [13]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Caustic soda supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory increased in some regions. PVC supply was stable, demand was low, and inventory accumulated [13]. LPG Industry - **Price Changes**: Some futures prices changed slightly, and spot prices were stable [15]. - **Inventory and开工率**: LPG refinery and port inventories decreased slightly, and some开工率 increased while some decreased [15]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Changes**: Brent and WTI prices decreased, while SC increased slightly. Many refined oil product prices decreased [17]. - **Spread Changes**: Some spreads such as Brent - WTI changed [17]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price Changes**: Upstream and downstream product prices in the polyester industry chain mostly decreased, with changes in some spreads and basis [19]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Some开工率 increased slightly while some decreased. MEG port inventory increased, and the arrival forecast decreased [19].