2026开年以来，A股在政策暖风与全球流动性转向预期下走出"开门红"，但结构性分化依旧显著。站在 多个经济体周期共振、新质生产力加速落地的关键节点，如何穿越短期波动、把握长期价值？ 宏利基金权益部执行总经理、基金经理李坤元给出了她的答案——聚焦"好行业、好阶段、好公司、好 价格"，在全市场均衡布局中捕捉科技成长与周期反转的双重机遇。拥有20年投研经验、14年基金管理 履历的她，正以一套融合宏观研判、中观景气与微观精选的系统性框架，掌舵新发产品宏利优势企业混 合型证券投资基金，布局高质量发展时代的优质资产。 她始终相信："时代造英雄，每个时代都有自己的英雄。"当前，正处于科技起舞的时代，人工智能 （AI）、先进制造、新型消费与医药等是中长期的核心方向。在此基础上，她形成了宏观定风格、中 观捕景气、微观挖龙头的三层投资方法论。 在投资标的选择上，李坤元严格遵循"四好"原则：好行业——优选处于上行周期、具备爆发潜力的赛 道，尤其关注市场空间大、渗透率临近拐点的领域；好阶段——聚焦景气度向上、业绩确定性增长且可 见度至少在一年以上的细分环节；好公司——不仅关注显性龙头，也挖掘细分领域的隐形冠军和潜在龙 头，挖掘在行业 ...

Group 1 - The competition among major tech companies for the upcoming Spring Festival has intensified, with Tencent's Yuanbao App launching a 1 billion yuan red envelope campaign, surpassing ByteDance's Doubao in the Apple Store rankings [1] - The 2026 Spring Festival red envelope battle has evolved into a strategic positioning war centered around AI, with Tencent, Baidu, Alibaba, and ByteDance investing heavily to secure the next generation of traffic super entry points [1] - In January, the manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector, while the non-manufacturing business activity index was at 49.4% [1] Group 2 - As of February 1, 125 companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange have disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts, with 76 companies expecting profitability, indicating a positive outlook for over 60% of the firms [3] - The performance growth is notably concentrated in high-end manufacturing, digital economy, and health consumption sectors, while some industries like photovoltaic equipment are still facing adjustment pressures [3] - The A-share market has seen a rotation in sectors, with previously strong performers in technology and new energy experiencing corrections, while traditional sectors like liquor and real estate have shown relative strength [3] Group 3 - As of January 31, 3,057 A-share companies have disclosed performance forecasts, with 1,638 companies (53.6%) expecting positive results, and 1,518 companies anticipating profits [5] - The non-ferrous metals and non-bank financial sectors have capitalized on cyclical opportunities, with companies like Zijin Mining expecting a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 59% to 62% [5] - The issuance market for public funds saw a strong start in January, with 123 new funds raising a total of 120.2 billion yuan, indicating a trend towards concentration in top-performing products [6] Group 4 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has proposed amendments to regulations regarding strategic investors in listed companies, aiming to enhance the role of institutional investors such as social security funds and public funds [7] - Leading companies in the optical module sector have reported strong performance forecasts for 2025, with firms like Zhongji Xuchuang expecting a net profit increase of 89.5% to 128.17% [7] - The private equity investment sector has seen a significant increase in contributions, reaching 1.82 trillion yuan in 2025, with state-owned capital maintaining a dominant position [8]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a cooling sentiment due to a wave of ETF sell-offs and significant fluctuations in international gold and silver prices, but the overall A-share index is expected to stabilize before the Spring Festival and enter a new upward trend afterward [1][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trends - The recent volatility in international precious metal prices is attributed to the breaking of dovish expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's chair nomination, profit-taking, and the speculative nature of silver amplifying price swings [2]. - A significant sell-off in broad-based ETFs has led to liquidity pressure and a noticeable decline in sentiment indices, indicating a potential short-term market correction [3][4]. - Despite the short-term pressure, the overall A-share index is anticipated to have limited adjustment space and is expected to stabilize before the Spring Festival, with a new upward trend likely to follow [3]. Group 2: Investment Focus and Sector Rotation - The company maintains a long-term positive outlook on the "technology + resource products" dual mainline strategy, with short-term market style rotation accelerating [1][4]. - Key sectors to focus on include power equipment (energy storage, ultra-high voltage, photovoltaics, solid-state batteries), non-bank financials, banks, AI (optical communication, storage), coal power, home appliances, automobiles, and steel [1][4]. - The upcoming Spring season is expected to benefit from ample capital inflow and favorable policies, supporting the growth of technology sectors and potentially leading to a rebound in previously underperforming financial and midstream manufacturing sectors [4].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - In February 2026, a total of 111 companies in the A-share market will face the unlocking of restricted shares, with a total unlocking volume of approximately 12.902 billion shares and an unlocking scale of 233.584 billion yuan, representing a month-on-month decrease of about 21.32% and a year-on-year decrease of about 50.63% [1][3]. Group 1: Unlocking Scale and Key Companies - The largest unlocking scale is attributed to Xinda Securities, with an unlocking market value exceeding 40 billion yuan [1][3]. - Five stocks will have an unlocking market value exceeding 10 billion yuan, with Xinda Securities, Hunan YN, and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals leading the list [3][4]. - Xinda Securities will unlock 2.5514 billion shares on February 2, with an unlocking market value of approximately 44.93 billion yuan, accounting for 78.67% of its total share capital [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Distribution - The industries with the highest unlocking market values are non-bank financials, electronics, and power equipment [1][9]. - In the non-bank financial sector, Xinda Securities has a significant unlocking scale, while in the electronics sector, Zhongwei Semiconductor has a notable unlocking scale [9][10]. Group 3: Additional Notable Unlockings - Hunan YN will unlock 374 million shares on February 9, with an unlocking market value of approximately 24.179 billion yuan, accounting for 49.13% of its total share capital [7][9]. - Huaxi Nonferrous Metals will have an unlocking volume of 357 million shares, representing 56.47% of its total share capital, with an unlocking market value of approximately 22.47 billion yuan [7][9]. - Honghai Technology will have its anniversary unlocking in February, with an unlocking volume of approximately 137 million shares and a market value of about 1.955 billion yuan [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to have significant impacts on various financial aspects, including exchange rates, gold investments, and A-share market performance, driven by a reallocation of global dollar liquidity [1][3]. Exchange Rate - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are likely to weaken the dollar, resulting in an appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the dollar. This change will affect cross-border consumers, reducing costs for overseas shopping, travel, and education [4]. - Import-oriented industries, such as steel and non-ferrous metals, will benefit from lower procurement costs, enhancing profit margins and stabilizing employment and income expectations. However, export-oriented sectors must balance the impact of a weaker dollar on overseas purchasing power with potential increases in import demand due to a stimulated U.S. economy [4]. Gold - The impact of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts on gold prices exhibits a "scenario-based characteristic." In the short term, any rate cut is expected to boost gold prices due to increased liquidity, with historical data indicating an average price increase of 3%-5% within 1-3 months post-rate cut [5]. - Long-term trends differ based on the type of rate cut: preemptive cuts may lead to a gradual decline in gold prices as economic expectations improve, while recessionary cuts could sustain upward pressure on gold prices due to heightened demand for safe-haven assets [5]. A-shares - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts will influence A-shares through both liquidity and risk appetite channels. As global funds flow out, A-shares may attract foreign investment, providing liquidity support to the market [6]. - The performance of different sectors will vary based on the type of rate cut: preemptive cuts will favor technology, food and beverage, and healthcare sectors, while recessionary cuts will benefit defensive sectors such as banking and chemicals [6].

【 摘要 】浙商证券廖静池称，展望后市，科技成长板块在经历三周的强势期之后，"跟随"权重 指数节奏进入高位震荡整理。招商银行陈峤认为，短期黄金回调动能仍在累积，中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。 一、焦点锐评 1．黄金、白银史诗级暴跌 1月30日，在亚市早盘传出特朗普将提名凯文·沃什任美联储主席的消息后贵金属即转跌，现货白 银价格一度暴跌36%，创出历史最大日内跌幅；现货黄金价格一度下跌超过12%，盘中跌穿每盎 司4700美元，遭遇40年来单日最大跌幅。沃什在美联储任职期间一贯对通胀保持警惕，经常支持 更高利率。但去年他转而呼应特朗普观点。 【解读】招商银行陈峤分析称，短期看，在本月极端单边行情落地后，市场回调动能仍在累积， 后续调整走势或进一步延续，建议交易型投资者保持警惕，防范市场波动风险。中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。当下市场更多聚焦于美元信用重塑与全球秩序重构，与1970- 1974年布雷顿森林体系瓦解时的黄金牛市更为类似。 二、权益市场 1.富国基金：从"结构牛"走向"全面牛" A股 | 万得全A | 6783.79 -1.59% | | 5. 78% | 5. 83% ...

□本报记者 王雪青 2026开年以来，A股在政策暖风与全球流动性转向预期下走出"开门红"，但结构性分化依旧显著。站在 多个经济体周期共振、新质生产力加速落地的关键节点，如何穿越短期波动、把握长期价值？ 宏利基金权益部执行总经理、基金经理李坤元给出了她的答案——聚焦"好行业、好阶段、好公司、好 价格"，在全市场均衡布局中捕捉科技成长与周期反转的双重机遇。拥有20年投研经验、14年基金管理 履历的她，正以一套融合宏观研判、中观景气与微观精选的系统性框架，掌舵新发产品宏利优势企业混 合型证券投资基金，布局高质量发展时代的优质资产。 遵循"四好"选股原则 李坤元的投资框架具有鲜明的自上而下特征。"宏观先行"是她的鲜明特色。"这些年来，我积极跟踪经 济数据与宏观政策，尝试根据宏观环境的变化做仓位上的择时和确定投资风格。"李坤元表示，"我每个 季度都会对宏观情况进行审视判断，如果出现大的风险或异常因素，会增加跟踪频率。宏观有风险时， 首先要降低仓位，第二要降低持仓品种的弹性，进行防御。" 她始终相信："时代造英雄，每个时代都有自己的英雄。"当前，正处于科技起舞的时代，人工智能 （AI）、先进制造、新型消费与医药等是中长期 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of a strong domestic economic foundation for building a financial powerhouse in China, highlighting the need for comprehensive policies to boost domestic demand and optimize support for new industries [6][7][8] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a decline in PMI, indicating weakening production and demand, with specific industries like food processing and aerospace remaining in a high prosperity zone while others face pressure [11][12][13] - The real estate sector is projected to hit a bottom in 2026, with historical patterns suggesting a cyclical rather than a trend-based issue, and the report discusses the implications of rental yields and mortgage rates on property prices [30][31][32][34] Macro Economic Analysis - The report outlines macroeconomic policies focusing on enhancing domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand, with specific measures including a 500 billion yuan investment guarantee plan for private investment [6][7] - It notes that the central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with potential for further rate cuts and liquidity support [7][8] - Fiscal policies are aimed at stimulating consumption and investment, with a focus on service sectors and adjustments in real estate financing [8] Industry Insights - The automotive industry is highlighted with significant growth in FSD paid user penetration, reaching over 12%, and a fivefold increase in global humanoid robot shipments expected in 2025 [53][54] - The chemical industry is experiencing stable prices for refrigerants despite seasonal downturns, with companies like Juhua and Haohua Technology announcing performance increases for 2025 [4] - The food and beverage sector shows resilience in demand, particularly for brands like Moutai, indicating a clear trend of improvement at the bottom [4] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining positions in the market despite volatility, advocating for a focus on theme-based investments that align with macroeconomic conditions [23][25] - It emphasizes the importance of sector rotation, recommending investments in steel, building materials, media, chemicals, and communication sectors [39][41] - The report also discusses the performance of "quantitative fixed income+" funds, noting their rapid growth and the strategies employed within this category [49][50][51]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent market downturn was primarily caused by significant fluctuations in gold and silver prices, with the A-share market showing no clear deterioration in trading sentiment [1][9] - Historical data suggests that the average duration of spring market rallies is 39 trading days, with a maximum increase of 15.8%, while the current rally has lasted 31 days with a 9.8% increase, indicating potential for further upward movement [1][9] - The report categorizes the triggers for the end of spring market rallies since 2010, noting that significant pullbacks often occur when domestic fundamentals decline alongside tightening overseas liquidity or geopolitical shocks [2][13] Group 2 - Evidence of performance recovery for listed companies in 2025-2026 is becoming increasingly clear, with a projected 5.3% year-on-year growth in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [3][15] - The report highlights that the proportion of companies with upward revisions to earnings expectations for 2026 has risen from 65% to 100% since late November 2025, reflecting optimism about corporate profit recovery [3][15] - Industrial profits are expected to show a positive year-on-year growth of 0.6% in 2025, marking the first positive growth since 2022, with stable profit margins being a key support factor [3][15] Group 3 - The report suggests a shift in the funding landscape, with a transition from short-term speculative capital to long-term household deposits, as a significant amount of household savings is set to mature in 2026 [4][21] - There has been a notable outflow of approximately 1 trillion yuan from broad-based ETFs since the beginning of the year, indicating a cooling of short-term speculative money [4][21] - The issuance of public funds has shown a significant recovery, with new public equity products increasing from 22.1 billion yuan in May 2025 to 69.6 billion yuan by January 2026 [4][21] Group 4 - The report emphasizes a focus on sectors with strong earnings growth expectations, particularly cyclical industries, non-bank financials, and technology sectors with solid fundamentals [5][28] - Specific sectors highlighted include non-bank financials, which have seen a 550% increase in the proportion of companies with upward earnings revisions, and cyclical industries such as metals and construction materials, which are expected to benefit from fiscal stimulus and demand-side incentives [5][28] - The report identifies key themes in technology, such as satellite navigation and commercial aerospace, which are projected to have significant earnings growth in 2026 [5][28]

Core Viewpoint - The recent acceleration in sector rotation within the A-share market indicates a shift in investment strategies, with previously underperforming sectors like liquor and real estate gaining traction while high-performing sectors like technology and new energy are experiencing corrections [1][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent ETF redemption wave has largely ended, signaling a potential recovery window for large-cap stocks as funds shift from small-cap to large-cap and from thematic to quality styles [1]. - The market is currently experiencing a structural adjustment, with high turnover rates leading to increased volatility, particularly in sectors like metals, which have seen significant trading volume [2][11]. - Despite short-term adjustments, the underlying fundamentals supporting the spring market rally remain intact, driven by domestic economic improvements and favorable policies [3][4]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The performance of cyclical sectors is strong, supported by a recovery in profit margins, as China's policy focus shifts from expansion to quality enhancement [1]. - The liquor and real estate sectors have shown notable performance, reflecting a convergence in market structure as the spring rally progresses into its latter stages [8]. - The AI sector continues to be a focal point for growth, with expectations of significant earnings improvements, while traditional sectors like chemicals and power equipment remain solid investment choices [7][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - February is anticipated to continue the spring market rally, with structural opportunities emerging from macroeconomic catalysts and corporate earnings forecasts [2][4]. - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic, with expectations of a stable upward trajectory supported by robust liquidity and favorable seasonal trends [4][6]. - The A-share market is expected to maintain a balanced performance across various sectors, with an emphasis on both growth and value opportunities as the market evolves [8].