Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the stable operation of industrial production, marginal improvement in infrastructure construction, and the divergent trends in shipping prices, indicating a mixed economic recovery landscape. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains stable, with the blast furnace operating rate showing resilience, down by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 2.6% [2][5] - In the chemical sector, except for a significant drop in soda ash production, other areas like PTA and polyester filament have improved, with year-on-year increases of 3.4 percentage points to 4.7% and 1.9 percentage points to 4.8%, respectively [2][17] - The operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires has also improved significantly, up by 15.5 percentage points year-on-year to -2.4% [2][17] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows mixed performance, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates significantly lower than the same period last year, up by 1.5 percentage points to -3.5% and down by 0.6 percentage points to -6.9%, respectively [2][28] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a notable increase, up by 4.8 percentage points year-on-year to 6.8% [2][40] Group 3: Downstream Demand - The transaction volume of commercial housing continues to decline, with the average daily transaction area of new homes down by 45.7% year-on-year to -12% [2][52] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput related to exports have also decreased, down by 15.3% to -6.2% and 7.1% to -0.3%, respectively [2][63] - Shipping prices show divergence, with the West America route continuing to rise while Southeast Asia route prices have significantly dropped [2][93] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with vegetable and egg prices falling by 2.2% and 0.6% respectively, while pork prices remain stable and fruit prices have increased by 0.7% [3][105] - The industrial product price index has risen by 2% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index up by 2.1% and the metal price index up by 1.8% [3][117]

建筑材料 行业专题报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 22 日 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 朱芸 SAC：S1350524070001 zhuyun@huayuanstock.com 证券研究报告 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 由单边下行走向结构分化，赛道及龙头α开始显现 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——建材行业 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报综述 投资要点： 风险提示：经济恢复不及预期，化债力度不及预期，房地产政策不及预期 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 | 1. 综述:行业压力仍存,结构性拐点逐步显现…………………………………………………………………………………… 5 | | --- | | 2. 消费建材:行业逐步探底,结构分化开始显现. | | 3. ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the stable operation of industrial production, marginal improvement in infrastructure construction, and the divergent trends in shipping prices, indicating a mixed economic recovery landscape. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains stable, with the blast furnace operating rate showing resilience, down by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 2.6% [2][5] - In the chemical sector, except for a significant drop in soda ash production, other areas like PTA and polyester filament have improved, with year-on-year increases of 3.4 percentage points to 4.7% and 1.9 percentage points to 4.8%, respectively [2][17] - The operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires has also improved significantly, up by 15.5 percentage points to -2.4% year-on-year [2][17] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows mixed performance, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates significantly below last year's levels, up by 1.5 percentage points to -3.5% and down by 0.6 percentage points to -6.9%, respectively [2][28] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a notable increase, up by 4.8 percentage points to 6.8% year-on-year [2][40] Group 3: Downstream Demand - The transaction volume of commercial housing continues to decline, with the average daily transaction area of new homes down by 45.7% year-on-year to -12% [2][52] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput related to exports have also decreased, down by 15.3% to -6.2% and 7.1% to -0.3% year-on-year, respectively [2][63] - Shipping prices are showing divergent trends, with the price on the West America route continuing to rise, while prices on the Southeast Asia route have significantly dropped [2][93] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with vegetable and egg prices declining by 2.2% and 0.6% respectively, while pork prices remain stable and fruit prices have increased by 0.7% [3][105] - The industrial product price index has risen by 2% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index up by 2.1% and the metal price index up by 1.8% [3][117]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, on the macro - level, the national economy maintained stable growth in April. Fundamentally, soda ash device fluctuated slightly, with supply decreasing narrowly due to planned maintenance in Qinghai and expected maintenance in the middle and late period. Downstream demand was tepid, with more wait - and - see sentiment, mainly replenishing inventory at low prices. High inventory pressure persisted, suppressing price increases. It is recommended to short on rallies for soda ash [2]. - For glass, on the supply side, the overall profit of glass made from natural gas, coal, and oil decreased slightly due to falling spot prices while production remained stable. On the demand side, there was a lack of positive news, and demand remained weak. Some original sheet enterprises might operate flexibly and offer discounts to avoid high - inventory pressure. The futures price was close to the production cost, and cost support might work in the short - term. It is recommended to buy on dips for glass [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1,288 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1,034 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The price difference between soda ash and glass was 254 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - The position volume of the soda ash main contract was 1,465,721 hands, down 32,407 hands; the position volume of the glass main contract was 1,484,264 hands, up 1,681 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 soda ash traders was - 270,580, up 10,693; the net position of the top 20 glass traders was - 164,811, up 6,861 [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of soda ash were 2,317 tons, down 453 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of glass were 3,568 tons, down 10 tons [2]. - The price difference between the September and January soda ash contracts was 9 yuan, up 3 yuan; the price difference between the September and January glass contracts was - 54 yuan, up 2 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of North China heavy soda ash was 1,320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Central China heavy soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of East China light soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Central China light soda ash was 1,335 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Shahe glass sheets was 1,076 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Central China glass sheets was 1,130 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of soda ash was 40 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the basis of glass was 51 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of soda ash plants was 80.27%, down 7.47 percentage points; the operating rate of float glass enterprises was 75%, down 0.24 percentage points [2]. - The in - production capacity of glass was 15.63 million tons/year, up 0.11 million tons; the number of in - production glass production lines was 222, unchanged [2]. - The inventory of soda ash enterprises was 168.75 tons, down 2.45 tons; the inventory of glass enterprises was 68,082,000 weight boxes, up 522,000 weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of the newly started area of real estate was 12,996.46 million square meters, up 6,382.46 million square meters; the cumulative value of the completed area of real estate was 13,060.27 million square meters, up 4,296.27 million square meters [2]. - From January to April, the state - owned land use right transfer income was 934 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.4% [2]. Industry News - Guangdong encourages local governments to support farmers in buying houses in cities by issuing housing subsidies, housing vouchers, etc [2]. - Shantou plans to supply 161.4 hectares of housing land and renovate 58 old communities in 2025 [2]. - Shanghai's housing and urban - rural construction and management commission investigated the housing provident fund situation of some enterprises [2].

Group 1 - The fourth China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo will be held from June 12 to 15 in Changsha, Hunan, focusing on "China-Africa Cooperation for Modernization" [1] - In 2024, the trade volume between China and Africa reached $295.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, marking the fourth consecutive year of record highs [1] - China has maintained its position as Africa's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years, with imports from Africa totaling $116.8 billion (up 6.9%) and exports to Africa reaching $178.8 billion (up 3.5%) [1] Group 2 - Chinese enterprises are increasingly investing in various economic and trade zones in Africa, contributing significantly to local tax revenue, employment, and export earnings [2] - Successful examples include the Suez Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone in Egypt and the East Africa Trade and Logistics Park in Tanzania, which is expected to create over 20,000 jobs [2] - In Zambia, the Zambia-China Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone is developing a full industrial chain for copper mining, refining, and processing [2] Group 3 - Cooperation in emerging fields is deepening, with Chinese companies building large data centers in Africa and providing cloud computing services [2] - The cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power stations built through China-Africa cooperation exceeds 1.5 GW, meeting the electricity needs of millions of African households [2] - Financial cooperation has also progressed, with Egypt and the African Export-Import Bank successfully issuing RMB "Panda Bonds" in China [2] Group 4 - The upcoming expo is significant as it coincides with the successful Beijing Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in September 2024, where major initiatives for modernization were proposed [3] - The expo will focus on the "Ten Partnership Actions" and showcase cooperation achievements, aiming to gather resources and enhance collaboration for high-quality development of China-Africa economic and trade relations [3]

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 5 月 21 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Financial Products**: A-share index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure; short - term treasury bonds may oscillate; precious metals show certain price patterns and trends; the rally of the container shipping index may slow down [2]. - **Industrial Products**: Industrial materials demand and inventory are deteriorating; iron ore, coke, and other black commodities have different price trends and market situations; various energy and chemical products have different supply - demand and price characteristics [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products such as soybeans, hogs, and sugar have their own market trends and influencing factors [2]. - **Special and New Energy Commodities**: Glass market sentiment is pessimistic; rubber prices are affected by news; new energy products like lithium carbonate are in a downward trend [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure. A - shares open lower and oscillate with trading volume maintaining at the trillion - level. Suggest selling put options on the support level of IF2506 to earn premiums, or going long on September IM contracts on pullbacks and selling call options with an exercise price of 6400 on September contracts for covered strategies [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term treasury bonds may oscillate, waiting for fundamental guidance. The 10 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate between 1.85% - 1.95%. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on high - frequency economic data and liquidity dynamics [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold forms a "double - top" pattern and oscillates narrowly between 3200 - 3300 US dollars (750 - 770 yuan); silver fluctuates between 32 - 33.5 US dollars (8000 - 8350 yuan). The sold out - of - the - money gold call options can be held; Moody's downgrades the US credit rating, causing declines in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets and a slight increase in precious metals [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The emotional release is sufficient, and the upward momentum may slow down. Consider 8 - 10, 6 - 10 positive spreads, and wait and see for unilateral operations [2]. Industrial - **Steel**: Industrial materials demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Iron ore oscillates between 700 - 745. Coke and coking coal prices are in a downward phase. Suggest long - hot - rolled steel and short - coke or short - coking coal strategies [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different products have different trends. For example, PX continues to have limited upward momentum; PTA oscillates at a high level between 4600 - 5000; short - fiber prices follow raw materials; ethanol's supply - demand structure improves; styrene has short - term oscillation and medium - term bearishness [2]. Agricultural - Different agricultural products have various market situations. For example, US soybeans oscillate, hogs' futures and spot prices oscillate weakly in the short term, and sugar has positive data from Brazil in late April [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Commodities**: Glass market sentiment is pessimistic, and attention is paid to whether it can break through the 1000 - point level; rubber prices rise slightly due to storage news and can be lightly shorted at the upper end of the 14500 - 15500 range [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Lithium carbonate maintains a downward trend, with the main contract referring to 60,000 - 63,000 yuan; polysilicon futures oscillate with near - term strength and long - term weakness [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific investment rating provided in the report. Core Views - The market is relatively cautious, with black commodities showing a weak and volatile trend. Glass and soda ash are fluctuating, while silicon manganese and silicon iron are also in a volatile state [1][3]. - For glass, although the futures market showed a slightly stronger trend and spot market transactions improved, due to insufficient demand recovery in the real - estate and deep - processing industries, there is significant inventory accumulation and high pressure to reduce inventory. For soda ash, production has declined due to increased plant maintenance, but supply remains loose, and demand growth is limited [1]. - In the case of silicon manganese, production has decreased to a low level in recent years, demand has weakened, and high inventory and registered warrants are suppressing prices, although manganese ore cost provides some support. For silicon iron, production is at a medium - low level, demand is weakening, inventory is being depleted, and short - term prices are affected by cost factors [3]. Summary by Relevant Content Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass futures showed a slightly stronger trend, and spot market transactions improved with better downstream purchasing sentiment. Soda ash futures had a narrow - range fluctuation, and the spot market demand was average, mainly for rigid needs [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass production has been declining, but due to insufficient demand recovery in real - estate and deep - processing, inventory accumulation is obvious, and there is high pressure to reduce inventory. The upcoming high - temperature and rainy season is unfavorable for glass storage, increasing the intention of enterprises to reduce prices and inventory. Soda ash production has decreased due to increased plant maintenance, but supply remains loose. The slowdown in photovoltaic growth limits the increase in demand, and there is still significant pressure to reduce inventory [1]. - **Strategy** - Glass is expected to be volatile, while soda ash is expected to be weakly volatile. There are no specific strategies for inter - period or inter - commodity trading [2]. Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - **Market Analysis** - Silicon manganese futures showed greater fluctuations, and the overall market was volatile. The final price of mainstream steel tenders has not been determined. Production has decreased to a low level in recent years, demand has weakened, and high inventory and registered warrants are suppressing prices, but manganese ore cost provides support. Silicon iron futures were volatile, with a reduction of 11,000 lots in positions. The spot market was weak, with cautious operations and little change in transaction prices. Production is at a medium - low level, demand is weakening, inventory is being depleted, and short - term prices are affected by cost factors [3]. - **Strategy** - For silicon manganese, near - month contracts are suppressed by warrants, and attention should be paid to the opportunity for a low - level rebound in far - month contracts. Silicon iron is expected to be volatile [4].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant role of transformation finance in supporting traditional industries in Guangdong to achieve green and low-carbon production, particularly in the ceramics sector [1][2][3] Group 1: Transformation Finance Implementation - Guangdong has accelerated the development of transformation finance under the "dual carbon" goals, becoming a key force in promoting the green low-carbon transition of traditional industries [1] - The People's Bank of China Guangdong Branch is set to release the first transformation finance standards for the ceramics industry in September 2024, providing a framework for financial institutions to support low-carbon transition projects [2] - A total of 1.7 billion yuan in credit has been signed between eight financial institutions and eight ceramics companies, with 1.37 billion yuan already disbursed for transformation loans [3] Group 2: Product Innovation and Financial Tools - Transformation finance is characterized by product innovation that meets diverse financing needs of enterprises, with various specialized credit products being developed to support green transitions [4] - Guangdong banks have introduced dynamic pricing transformation finance products linked to carbon emissions, effectively incentivizing high-carbon enterprises to reduce emissions [5] - By the first quarter of 2025, Guangdong banks had launched 44 specialized credit products, disbursing a total of 32.44 billion yuan in transformation finance loans [5] Group 3: Collaborative Mechanisms and Policy Support - Guangdong has established a collaborative mechanism that combines professional agency credit enhancement with policy leverage to effectively implement transformation finance [6] - The region is exploring fiscal and financial policy synergies to guide resources towards green low-carbon transitions, including subsidies and risk compensation for enterprises [7] - The breakthrough in transformation finance standards provides a feasible path for the green transition of "brown industries," demonstrating the integration of financial innovation with industrial transformation [7]

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the supply and demand are both decreasing, and the inventory accumulation situation persists. The long - term supply pattern is in surplus, and the demand is difficult to increase. The supply at the low level in the market is maintained for a short time, and the futures price lacks the power to rise continuously. The supply - demand contradiction will become prominent again, and the price will enter the downward channel again, with the futures market likely to show a weak and fluctuating trend [8]. - For glass, the overall profit in the float glass production field has increased slightly, and the production volume remains relatively stable. The demand market is relatively dull, and the downstream inventory has accumulated. The futures price is approaching the production cost line, and the cost support may appear in the short - term. The short - term market has an expectation of rush - exporting, which brings some support to the market, but the supply - demand game is still the key factor for the subsequent trend [9][10]. Summary by Section 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data on May 19th**: The main soda ash futures contract SA509 opened low and went lower, with a closing price of 1,284 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton, and a decline of 1.91%, and an increase of 116,309 lots in positions. The FG509 glass futures contract closed at 1,018 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.19%, and a decrease of 54,017 lots in positions [7]. - **Soda Ash Situation**: The weekly output of soda ash in China dropped to 677,700 tons in the week of May 15th, a month - on - month decrease of 8.52%, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 80.27%. The enterprise inventory of heavy soda ash was 880,000 tons, continuing the inventory accumulation trend. The market supply is in a long - term surplus pattern, and the demand is difficult to increase, so the price will likely decline [8]. - **Glass Situation**: The overall profit in the float glass production field has increased slightly, and the production volume remains stable. The demand market is dull, and the downstream inventory has accumulated. The futures price is approaching the cost line, and the cost support may appear in the short - term. The short - term market has an expectation of rush - exporting, which brings some support to the market [9][10]. 2. Industry News - **Real Estate**: In April, the sales price of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities was flat month - on - month, down 2.1% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month. The sales price of second - hand residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, down 3.2% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous month [11]. - **Manufacturing Loans**: From January to April, the Export - Import Bank of China invested more than 180 billion yuan in medium - and long - term loans for the manufacturing industry, and the balance of medium - and long - term loans for the manufacturing industry at the end of April was 1.8 trillion yuan [11]. - **Sodium Bicarbonate Market**: The sodium bicarbonate market in Henan is running weakly, and the downstream makes rigid demand purchases. The mainstream ex - factory price of food - grade sodium bicarbonate is estimated to be between 1,180 - 1,260 yuan/ton [11]. - **Float Glass Market**: The prices of the domestic float glass market are mainly stable, with some fluctuations. The prices in North China have fluctuated, the prices in East China have decreased in some areas, the prices of colored glass in Central China have increased in some factories, the prices in South China are stable, the prices in Northeast China have decreased, and the prices in Southwest China have fluctuated [11]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, the weekly output and enterprise inventory of soda ash, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and the production volume of flat glass, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [17][18][16].