早上好，先来关注下美伊谈判。 中东多国紧急游说 美国恢复原定于6日举行的美伊谈判 据央视新闻消息，当地时间2月4日，在多位中东领导人紧急游说特朗普政府放弃退出谈判的威胁后，原定于6日举行 的美伊核谈判计划得以恢复，谈判将在阿曼举行。 美国稍早前曾拒绝伊朗将原定会议地点由土耳其伊斯坦布尔改到阿曼的提议。据悉，此次僵局引发了整个中东地区的 担忧，担心特朗普会转而采取军事行动。该地区至少有九个国家通过最高级别渠道联系白宫，强烈敦促美国不要取消 会议。 当地时间2月4日，伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐就伊朗在阿曼与美国会谈的官方立场作出澄清，称谈判将于6日上午10点左 右在阿曼首都马斯喀特举行。并对阿曼为此次谈判所做的一切必要安排表示感谢。 蒂利斯这张反对票可能导致银行委员会在表决沃什的提名时出现平票局面，进而阻止提名诉诸参议院全院表决。 美国司法部1月9日向美联储送达传票，威胁对鲍威尔2025年6月在参议院银行委员会就美联储办公楼翻新项目作证一 事提起刑事诉讼。鲍威尔随后发表声明说，美国联邦检察官对其相关指控都是"借口"，直言遭调查是因为美联储"没 有遵从总统意愿"来设定利率。 2026年1月我国大宗商品价格指数创三年半新高 ...

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Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of maintaining good communication between China and the United States, as highlighted by President Xi Jinping's willingness to work together with President Trump to navigate challenges in their relationship [1] - The article discusses the fluctuations in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, influenced by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which has led to a decrease in interest rate expectations and increased volatility in the market [2][19] - The article notes that crude oil prices rose by 3.32% due to concerns over potential military conflict stemming from disagreements in U.S.-Iran negotiations, which could disrupt oil supply [3][13] Group 2 - The stock market is experiencing a phase of recovery, driven by factors such as technological cycles, policy benefits, and economic recovery, with expectations for continued positive momentum in February [4][11] - The article highlights the performance of various commodities, including a slight increase in gasoline inventories and a decrease in crude oil stocks, indicating a mixed supply situation in the energy sector [3][12] - The article mentions the cautious outlook for various commodities, including metals and agricultural products, with specific attention to the dynamics of supply and demand affecting prices [19][20][21][27]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：国际金融报 2月2日，山西证监局集中发力，接连向山西三立期货、中辉期货山西省分公司下发共计7张罚单，直指 两家机构存在多项违规行为，再度释放期货行业严监管信号。 据记者不完全统计，2026年以来仅一个多月时间，多地证监局已对9家期货公司作出处罚，涉及华金期 货、中辉期货、山西三立期货等。其中，内控失效、互联网营销管理不当及居间业务问题成为违规高发 领域，行业合规短板凸显。 罚单密集落地 2月2日，山西证监局同步发布7份监管公告，对山西三立期货、中辉期货山西省分公司的违规行为作出 处理。两家机构均被采取出具警示函的监管措施，中辉期货山西省分公司1名负责人及山西三立期货4名 核心管理人员同步被问责。 | 序号 | 标题 | 文号 | 发文日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 关于对李梓平采取出具警示函措施的决定 | 〔2026〕 15号 | 2026-02-02 | | Σ | 关于对中辉期货有限公司山西省分公司采取出 具整示函措施的决定 | 〔2026〕 14号 | 2026-02-02 | | ...

早盘提示 | 在太空轨道、月球等地外环境中，利用太阳能光伏技术获取能源。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 6、桥水基金创始人达利欧警告称，在地缘政治紧张局势加剧、资本市场高度波动 | | | | 的背景下，世界正处在一场"资本战争"的边缘。所谓资本战争，是指通过贸易禁 | | | | 运、切断资本市场准入，或将债务所有权作为施压工具，将资金"武器化"。 | | | | 7、英特尔 CEO 在思科系统公司会议上表示，他与两家主要内存厂商进行了沟通， | | | | 对方明确告知"至少到 2028 年之前不会缓解"。人工智能基础设施的大规模扩张持 | | | | 续推高内存芯片需求，挤压了传统设备可用的供应量。 | | | | 8、英伟达公司正接近达成一项协议，将向 OpenAI 投资 200 亿美元作为其最新一轮 | | | | 9、AI | | 冲击下，软件行业陷入"末日危机"：标普北美软件指数 1 月暴跌 15%，创 2008 | | 年以来最大单月跌幅，引发投资者恐慌性抛售。更危险的是，千亿美元私募信贷风 | | | | 险敞口面临资产减值压力，进而可能收紧信贷，形成致命的"死亡循 ...

Report Overview - The report is a daily publication from Goldtrust Futures Research Institute, dated February 5, 2026 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market is likely to maintain a wide - range oscillation. After the Spring Festival, there may be a staged rebound, but the overall upside is limited. Operations should focus on high - selling and low - buying within the range [4] Summary by Category Coking Coal - Indonesia's government's large - scale production cut plan has led to miners suspending spot coal exports. Some companies' 2026 production quotas may be cut by 40% - 70% compared to 2025, causing export quotes to skyrocket and driving the A - share coal sector to a daily limit and coking coal futures to strengthen [3] - As the Spring Festival approaches, domestic coal mines in major production areas are starting to arrange for holidays and production suspension, leading to a seasonal low in supply. However, the Mongolian coal customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high, with relatively sufficient imports. In February, coking coal supply decreases while demand remains stable, and the fundamentals improve marginally [3] - The coking coal futures are oscillating in the range of 1,100 - 1,300 yuan/ton, with the 1,300 - yuan integer mark being a strong resistance level. The recent rally lacked volume, which may trigger profit - taking by funds. Macroscopically, market trading activity decreases as the Spring Festival approaches, and speculative demand shrinks [3] Stock Index Futures - The A - share market rebounded after hitting the bottom today, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to the gap. It is facing short - term pressure near the current level, and it is recommended to reduce positions on rallies for now [6][7] Gold - Gold prices continue to decline sharply, and it is expected that the volatility will continue for some time. Caution is advised when participating [10] Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a supply surplus is further fermented. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it has broken through the platform support and is regarded as oscillating bearishly [12][13] Glass - The daily melting volume of glass has changed little, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The main drivers are the policy - side stimulus policies and the anti - involution policies for the supply - side clearance. Technically, it closed with a large positive line today, and the trading idea has turned to oscillating bullishly [15][16] Methanol - As the Spring Festival approaches, the methanol market has abundant supply and weakening demand. Enterprises are smoothly clearing their inventories but mostly selling at low prices. The market lacks positive support, and the price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term [18] Pulp - From the perspective of the pulp fundamentals, the supply - demand pattern has improved month - on - month since the end of last year, driving the pulp price to bottom out and rebound. However, the recovery of domestic terminal consumption is still slow, which should limit the speed and space of price increases. The futures market has shown an oscillating pattern in the recent period [21]

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 紫金天风 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 从过去5年所有品种的平均涨跌概率看，春节前后两周商品价格涨跌存在较高的变盘概率。如2025年节前下跌的板块/品种——金属能 化，在25年春节后2周出现上涨；而黑色板块在2025年春节前出现上涨，节后出现一定幅度的下跌。同时春节期间大部分商品多处于累 库周期，建议做好库存管理和品种套保。 临近假期，交易所和期货公司将有提保动作，请各位投资者合理持仓过节，祝大家新年投资大吉大利！ 附历年春节前后两周大宗商品价格涨跌分布图、近两个月库存预期图，供大家参考。 | | 节前 | | | | | 节后 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2020 | 2021 2022 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 贵金属 | 2020 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | | -1.20% | -0.90% -1.00% 3.00% | 0.90% | 1.90% | 黄 ...

今日关注 1、商务部定于2月5日举行新闻发布会，介绍近期商务领域重点工作有关情况。 4、文化和旅游部表示，大陆方面将于近期恢复上海居民赴金门、马祖旅游。目前各项工作正在积极筹 备中。 5、《黄金行业"十五五"发展规划（讨论稿）》专家研讨会在京召开。院士专家指出资源保障是黄金行 业稳健发展的根基所在。要持续推进新一轮找矿突破战略行动，加快突破2000米以下深井开采、氰渣综 合利用等先进技术、装备的研发与应用。 投资要闻 1、中证数据最新数据显示，1月份市场新开融资融券账户19.05万户，环比增长29.5%，同比增长 157.09%。截至1月末，市场两融账户总数已达1580.16万户。 2、据华尔街见闻，中财期货在近期白银价格暴跌前成功建立大规模空头头寸，据测算获利超过5亿美 元。上期所数据显示，截至2月2日，中财期货已建立相当于约484吨白银期货的空头头寸，按当前价格 计算价值超过15亿美元。 2、光伏行业2025年发展回顾与2026年形势展望研讨会于2月5日举办。 宏观经济 1、商务部就欧委会对中国风电企业启动《外国补贴条例》（FSR）深入调查表示，欧方滥用调查，不 仅严重干扰中欧产业互利合作，还将迟滞自身乃 ...

尤其是在新一轮科技革命和产业变革加速突破、全球竞技场比拼科技硬实力的背景下，做强主场，吸引 全球长期资本，提升人民币资产吸引力与人民币国际化支撑力，增强关键品种的定价影响力尤为重要， 是让中国市场更好融入全球金融体系的必要之举。 展望未来，资本市场高水平制度型开放仍将向纵深推进。可以预期，双向开放将以更成熟的节奏、更完 善的制度、更开放的姿态，建设具有全球竞争力的资本市场，为经济高质量发展与金融强国建设提供坚 实支撑。 资本市场高水平对外开放迈向规则对接、机制互通、生态共建的制度型开放新阶段。合格境外投资者资 格核准常态化，吸引长期资本稳步入市；新增一批期货期权特定品种开放，覆盖新能源、大宗商品等关 键领域，提升境内市场定价影响力与风险管理供给；境外上市备案制透明高效，企业跨境融资更便捷更 快速。开放节奏与市场需求同频，政策成效快速转化为市场活力。 要统筹开放与安全，兼顾速度与质量，风险防控不可掉以轻心。当前全球金融市场波动加大，资本市场 开放始终坚持稳字当头、稳中求进。一方面，以制度型开放筑牢基础，推动规则、规制、管理、标准逐 步与国际接轨，提升政策透明度与可预期性；另一方面，强化跨境监管协同与执法合作，健 ...

Core Insights - The DCE's "DCE·Industry Action" initiative aims to enhance the futures market's role in supporting high-quality development of the real economy by organizing targeted training activities across various regions in China [1][2][8] Group 1: Training Activities and Participation - In 2025, the DCE organized 20 specialized training sessions, attracting over 2,300 participants from government departments, state-owned enterprises, listed companies, and financial institutions [1] - The training activities were conducted in nearly 20 provinces, including Beijing, Guangdong, and Xinjiang, focusing on local industrial needs and national development strategies [2][3] Group 2: Focus on Key Regions and Industries - The initiative targeted key regions such as Beijing and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, emphasizing risk management for state-owned and private enterprises [2] - In Shandong, the DCE supported leading enterprises in energy, metallurgy, and agriculture, enhancing the understanding of futures tools among local industries [2] Group 3: Tailored Training and Content Customization - The training content was customized based on pre-training surveys and feedback, addressing specific needs of industries such as livestock farming and coal chemical sectors [4][6] - A multi-tiered training approach was developed, catering to different levels of participants, including comprehensive training for state-owned enterprises and specialized sessions for local industries [4] Group 4: Overcoming Practical Challenges - The training addressed three main barriers for enterprises in the futures market: risk control, accounting for hedging, and the application of advanced trading tools [5][6] - Emphasis was placed on practical applications, helping enterprises transition from basic price hedging to sophisticated profit management strategies [6] Group 5: Collaborative Ecosystem Development - The DCE established a collaborative ecosystem involving local financial authorities, other exchanges, and industry leaders to enhance the effectiveness of training programs [7] - Joint training sessions with other exchanges improved resource utilization and overall market influence [7] Group 6: Impact and Outcomes - The DCE reported a 14.3% year-on-year increase in daily positions held by industrial clients, indicating a growing engagement with futures markets [8] - Training initiatives contributed to the establishment of internal hedging policies and professional teams within participating enterprises, integrating futures tools into their operational processes [8] Group 7: Future Directions - The DCE plans to continue optimizing the "DCE·Industry Action" framework, focusing on personalized training and expanding outreach to underserved regions and industries [9] - The initiative aims to build a professional talent pool that understands industry needs, financial tools, and risk management [9]