1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has improved, with steel and iron ore prices fluctuating upwards. The main contract price of rebar oscillated and rebounded, recording a daily increase of 0.26% with shrinking volume and open interest. The supply and demand of rebar are both rising, and industrial contradictions are accumulating. The fundamentals remain weak, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. However, the valuation is low, and costs provide support. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5][36]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil bottomed out and rebounded, recording a daily increase of 0.31% with shrinking volume and open interest. Under the high inventory situation, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coils has not subsided, and demand resilience is weakening. The contradictions in the hot-rolled coil market are accumulating, and prices continue to be under pressure. The cost support is a relative advantage, and it is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom. Attention should be paid to demand changes [5][36]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated upwards, recording a daily increase of 1.38% with shrinking volume and open interest. The market sentiment has improved, and rising freight rates provide support. However, iron ore demand is weak, and supply has increased. The fundamentals of the iron ore market remain weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. The future trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to steel performance [5][37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In 2026, the People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, flexibly and efficiently using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, to ensure sufficient market liquidity and match the growth of social financing scale and money supply with the expected targets of economic growth and price levels [7]. - In the arrangement of fiscal funds this year, three aspects have reached new highs: the total expenditure has exceeded 30 trillion yuan for the first time; the scale of newly issued government bonds has reached 11.89 trillion yuan, the largest in recent years; the central government's transfer payments to local governments have reached 10.42 trillion yuan, strengthening local fiscal security capabilities [8]. - In late February 2026, key steel enterprises produced 16.22 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.027 million tons, a 0.1% decrease from the previous period. Pig iron production was 15.18 million tons, with a daily output of 1.897 million tons, a 2.9% increase. Steel production was 16.89 million tons, with a daily output of 2.111 million tons, an 11.0% increase. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 17.34 million tons, a 4.3% decrease from the previous ten-day period, a 22.6% increase from the beginning of the year, a 17.9% increase from the same period last month, a 6.3% increase from the same period last year, and a 3.8% decrease from the same period the year before last [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,160 yuan, 3,120 yuan, and 3,301 yuan respectively. The spot prices of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,230 yuan, 3,140 yuan, and 3,265 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan steel billet is 2,920 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,160 yuan. The volume-spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar is 70, and the spread between rebar and scrap is 1,000 [10]. - The price of PB powder at Shandong ports is 765 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis) is 765 yuan. The ocean freight rates from Australia and Brazil are 11.03 and 26.06 respectively. The SGX swap price (current month) is 101.01, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) is 101.35 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,088 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.26%. The trading volume is 704,303 lots, a decrease of 101,837 lots from the previous day. The open interest is 1,798,732 lots, a decrease of 38,543 lots [12]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract is 3,230 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.31%. The trading volume is 340,329 lots, a decrease of 49,271 lots from the previous day. The open interest is 1,398,808 lots, a decrease of 31,275 lots [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 772.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.38%. The trading volume is 264,664 lots, a decrease of 170,742 lots from the previous day. The open interest is 488,254 lots, a decrease of 10,515 lots [12]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report presents charts related to steel and iron ore inventories (including weekly changes and total inventories of rebar, hot-rolled coils, and iron ore at ports, steel mills, and domestic mines), steel mill production conditions (including blast furnace operating rates, capacity utilization rates, and profitability of 247 sample steel mills and 94 independent electric furnace steel mills) [14][22][28]. 3.5 Market Outlook - For rebar, both supply and demand have increased. The production of short-process steel mills has resumed, and the weekly output of rebar has increased by 82,100 tons. The demand for rebar has recovered as expected, but it is still at a relatively low level, and the incremental space is limited. The market sentiment has improved, but the fundamentals are still weak, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to demand performance [36]. - For hot-rolled coils, both supply and demand have weakened. The production of plate mills has declined, and the weekly output of hot-rolled coils has decreased by 85,000 tons. The demand for hot-rolled coils has also weakened, and the demand resilience will continue to decline. Under the high inventory situation, the supply pressure has not subsided, and prices will continue to be under pressure. It is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to demand changes [36]. - For iron ore, demand has weakened due to environmental protection restrictions and poor profitability of steel mills, while supply has increased as domestic port arrivals are expected to rebound and domestic mine production is recovering. The market sentiment has improved, and rising freight rates provide some support, but the upward driving force is not strong. The future trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to steel performance [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market is expected to be in a stage of rising supply and demand and accumulating inventory, with an overall positive industry outlook It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Performance**: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change rate of - 2.76%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 101,050 yuan/ton [6] - **International Situation**: Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. The Fed's Beige Book shows an optimistic economic outlook, with most regions expecting slight to moderate economic growth in the coming months [6] - **Domestic Situation**: Affected by the Spring Festival, China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0%, down 0.3 ppts; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.1 ppts; the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, down 0.3 ppts [6] - **Fundamentals**: The copper concentrate TC spot index is weakening, and the supply of copper ore is tight. Smelters are resuming production, and domestic refined copper supply may increase. Downstream demand is expected to pick up with the "Golden March and Silver April" season, and the price correction may boost downstream restocking. Due to the difference in the resumption rhythm of supply and demand, copper industry inventory is still accumulating [6] 2. Spot - Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: As of March 6, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1855 yuan/ton. The main contract was quoted at 101,050 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2870 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 195,682 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 8117 lots [13] - **Spot Prices**: As of March 6, 2026, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 100,965 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 760 yuan/ton [16] - **Cross - Period Quotes**: As of March 6, 2026, the cross - period quote of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 460 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 510 yuan/ton [16] - **Copper Premium and Positions**: The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF average premium was 43 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 US dollars/ton. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 75,885 lots, a decrease of 6184 lots from the previous week [25] 3. Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: As of March 6, 2026, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract was above the 90th percentile of historical volatility [30] - **Put - Call Ratio**: As of this week, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options was 0.7361, compared with 0.1208 last week [30] 4. Upstream Situation - **Quotes and Processing Fees**: The copper concentrate in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was quoted at 91,460 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 950 yuan/ton. The southern copper scrap processing fee was quoted at 2300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [32] - **Imports and Price Spreads**: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.7043 million tons, an increase of 178,000 tons from November, a growth rate of 7.05%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 7.24%. The price spread between refined and scrap copper (tax - included) was 4668.18 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1050 yuan/ton [38] - **Production and Inventory**: As of November 2025, the global monthly output of copper concentrates was 1.923 million tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from October, a decline of 0.57%. The global copper concentrate capacity utilization rate was 78.8%, an increase of 1.9% from October. The domestic seven - port copper concentrate inventory was 5.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 460,000 tons [43] 5. Industry Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of December 2025, the domestic monthly output of refined copper was 1.326 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons from November, a growth rate of 7.28%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 6.76%. The global monthly output of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.431 million tons, an increase of 70,000 tons from November, a growth rate of 2.96%. The refined copper capacity utilization rate was 80.2%, a decrease of 0.6% from November [45] - **Refined Copper Imports**: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 298,027.317 tons, a decrease of 6677.56 tons from November, a decline of 2.19%, and a year - on - year decline of 27%. The import profit and loss amount was 1246.98 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3059.13 yuan/ton [53][54] - **Social Inventory**: The LME total inventory increased by 28,500 tons week - on - week, the COMEX total inventory decreased by 1879 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 24,894 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 584,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,600 tons [57] 6. Downstream and Application - **Copper Products**: As of December 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.2291 million tons, an increase of 3100 tons from November, a growth rate of 0.14%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 440,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from November, a growth rate of 2.33%, and a year - on - year decline of 21.43% [64] - **Power and Appliance Applications**: As of December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 5.11% and - 4.65%. The year - on - year growth rates of the monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were - 4.4%, - 9.6%, 5.7%, 7%, and - 1.2% [68] - **Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of December 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment completion amount was 827.8814 billion yuan, a year - on - year decline of 17.2% and a month - on - month increase of 5.34%. The cumulative output of integrated circuits was 484.279481 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.14% [75] 7. Overall Situation - **Global Supply - Demand**: According to ICSG statistics, as of December 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 173,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 98,000 tons [80][81]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 decreased, with a weekly decline of about 0.65%. The export signing volume of US cotton decreased, while the export shipment volume increased. In the domestic market, the port inventory increased significantly due to the large - scale arrival of cotton, increasing the supply - side pressure. As of March 5, the inventory of major ports for imported cotton was 55.65 tons, a 3.42% increase from the previous period. The downstream consumption is gradually recovering, mainly shipping previous orders, with limited new orders. The inventory of finished products has decreased, and the pressure is limited. Considering the "Golden March and Silver April" traditional consumption season, the short - term upward trend of cotton prices is expected to remain unchanged [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.65% [6]. - **Market Outlook**: According to the USDA report, in the week ending February 26, the net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 150,420 bales, a 416% decrease from the previous week and a 50% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume was 282,200 bales, a 46% increase from the previous week and a 43% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. In the domestic market, the supply - side pressure increased, and the downstream consumption was gradually recovering. The short - term upward trend of cotton prices was expected to remain unchanged [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to the changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: As of February 24, 2026, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 103,424 contracts, an increase of 3,841 contracts from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 132,394 contracts, a decrease of 22,922 contracts from the previous week; the net short position was 28,970 contracts, a decrease of 26,763 contracts from the previous week. The price of the May contract of US cotton decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.89% [12]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: In the week ending February 26, the net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 150,420 bales, a 416% decrease from the previous week and a 50% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks [15]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.65%. The price of the cotton yarn futures 2605 contract decreased by 0.19%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 189,104 contracts, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 1,377 contracts. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 11,443, and that of cotton yarn futures was 0 [19][25][29]. - **Futures and Spot Price Difference**: This week, the price difference between the Zhengzhou Cotton 5 - 9 contracts was - 50 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,242 yuan/ton [36]. - **Spot Market**: As of March 6, 2026, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 16,678 yuan/ton. The spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 21,920 yuan/ton, the CY index: OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 15,380 yuan/ton, and the CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 24,700 yuan/ton [41][52]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of March 5, the sliding - duty price of imported cotton was 13,633 yuan/ton, a decrease of 268 yuan/ton from the previous week; the quota price of imported cotton was 12,445 yuan/ton, a decrease of 438 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of March 4, the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C21S was 20,509 yuan/ton; C32S was 21,834 yuan/ton; JC32S was 23,500 yuan/ton [58]. - **Imported Cotton Price Cost and Profit**: As of March 5, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - duty was 2,938 yuan/ton, an increase of 158 yuan/ton from the previous week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 2,379 yuan/ton, an increase of 328 yuan/ton from the previous week [61]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply - Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of the end of December 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7847 million tons, a 23.51% increase from the previous month and a 1.75% increase from the same period last year. At the end of December, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 983,800 tons, an increase of 44,200 tons from the end of the previous month [64]. - **Supply - Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In December 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 180,000 tons, a 60,000 - ton increase from the previous month and a 31% increase from the same period last year. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative cotton import volume was 1.07 million tons, a 59.1% decrease from the same period last year. In December 2025, China's imported cotton yarn volume was 170,000 tons, a 60,000 - ton increase from the previous month and a 20,000 - ton increase from the same period last year [68]. - **Mid - end Industry - Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory**: As of January 31, 2026, the inventory days of yarn were 21.71 days, and the inventory days of grey cloth were 33.13 days, a 1.87% decrease from the previous period [71]. - **Terminal Consumption - Textile and Garment Export Volume**: In December 2025, China's textile and garment export volume was 25.99 billion US dollars, a 7.4% decrease from the same period last year and an 8.9% increase from the previous month. Among them, textile exports were 12.58 billion US dollars, a 4.2% decrease from the same period last year; garment exports were 13.41 billion US dollars, a 10.2% decrease from the same period last year [75]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Domestic Garment Retail Sales**: As of December 31, 2025, the monthly retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 166.1 billion yuan, a 7.75% increase from the previous month [79]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Markets - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton this week is presented in the figure [80]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: The price - to - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. is presented in the figure [83].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Under the background of "dual carbon", China's crude steel output has declined for five consecutive years, but the coal - coking industry is still in the capacity release period. The domestic coal - coking - steel industry chain shows "two highs and two lows", with record - high domestic raw coal output, second - highest imported coal volume, and five - year lows in downstream steel demand and year - on - year decline in thermal power demand. In 2025, China's raw coal output reached a record high of 4.85 billion tons, and coke output reached a record high of 504 million tons, while crude steel output dropped to a five - year low of 961 million tons and pig iron output to 836 million tons. The entire industry chain has limited profits, and the domestic coal industry is prone to fall into a prisoner's dilemma. Breaking this negative cycle requires domestic policy - guided production cuts or export - country policy - led volume reduction to maintain relatively stable prices within a range. Considering China's energy security, coal is the only reliable non - renewable fossil energy source, resulting in the market regarding the range of 610 - 830 yuan for the thermal coal price index as the policy - controlled range in 2025 [3][315]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Coal - Coking Industry Chain Structure Diagram - Presents the coal - coking industry chain structure [18] Part 2: Introduction to Coking Coal and Coke Futures Contracts Coking Coal Futures Contracts and Delivery Systems - For contracts after JM2701: Trading unit is 60 tons/hand; trading code is JM; listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. The exchange can adjust price limits and trading margin standards according to market conditions. It has night trading from 21:00 - 23:00 [20][21][22] - For contracts before JM2701: Similar trading parameters, but the delivery quality standard is F/DCE JM003 - 2022 [45][46] Coke Futures Contracts and Delivery Systems - For contracts starting from J2604: Trading unit is 100 tons/hand; trading code is J; listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. It has night trading from 21:00 - 23:00. The delivery quality standard is F/DCE J003 - 2024 [62][63][64] - For contracts starting from J2201: Similar trading parameters, but the delivery quality standard is F/DCE J001 - 2021 [76][77][79] Coking Coal Futures Option Contracts and Delivery Systems - Contract标的物: Coking coal futures contracts; contract types include call and put options. The trading unit is 1 hand (60 tons) of coking coal futures contracts; trading code for call options is JM - contract month - C - strike price, and for put options is JM - contract month - P - strike price. It is listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange [93][94] Part 3: Long - term and 2025 Market Summary of Coal - Coking Spot and Futures Long - term and 2025 Trends of the Coal - Coking Market - **Coking coal spot market**: Since the supply - side structural reform in 2016, it can be divided into two stages. From 2016 - 2022, prices rebounded, fluctuated in a stable range, and then soared due to supply constraints. From 2023 to now, prices have been under continuous downward pressure due to "double - high" supply and "double - weak" demand. In 2025, it showed a V - shaped reversal. The first half - year decline was due to weak supply and demand, and the second - half reversal was due to policy - guided supply reduction and anti - involution phased restocking [98][100][101] - **Coke spot market**: Since the 2016 supply reform, it has shown four stages. In 2025, coke prices followed coking coal prices in a V - shaped reversal but weakened again at the end of the year, with 15 rounds of price cuts and 14 rounds of price increases throughout the year [107][110] Long - term and 2025 Trends of Coal - Coking Futures - **Coking coal futures**: Since its listing in 2013, it has shown cyclical fluctuations. In 2025, the main contract hit a 10 - year low and then rebounded under policy stimulus, oscillating weakly in the range of 1000 - 1300 yuan/ton [113][115][116] - **Coke futures**: Since its listing in 2011, its price trend is highly correlated with the spot market. In 2025, it also showed a V - shaped reversal, oscillating in the range of 1400 - 1800 yuan/ton [119][121] Trading Volume and Open Interest of Coking Coal and Coke Futures - In 2025, the open interest of coking coal futures contracts increased significantly, with obvious trading volume and open interest expansion during June - August. The annual trading volume was 258,419,214 hands, and the average daily open interest was 676,039 hands. The trading volume of coke futures increased in June - August but was limited by the unopened position limits. The annual trading volume was 6,906,613 hands, and the average daily open interest was 49,559 hands [129][131] Part 4: Analysis of China's Coal - Coking Industry Supply Pattern China's Coal Supply - In 2025, China's coal industry achieved phased goals such as a slight increase in coal consumption, continuous optimization of the coal consumption structure, a significant decrease in the million - ton mortality rate, and a 65% share of intelligent coal mines. The national raw coal output was 4.85 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The coal industry is still in the capacity release cycle, and production will remain high in the long run. In 2026, there is still room for capacity release in major coal - producing regions [132][136][145] China's Coal Imports - China's coal imports have been at a high level for a long time. In 2025, imports decreased but remained at the second - highest historical level. The import structure shows that imported thermal coal accounts for about 74%, and imported coking coal accounts for about 23%. The main importing countries include Indonesia, Russia, Australia, and Mongolia. Coking coal imports have remained high, with Mongolia and Russia being the main sources. Mongolia plans to increase coal exports to China to 100 million tons in 2026, with coking coal accounting for over 61 million tons [164][172][185] China's Coke Supply and Industrial Layout - The coking industry's capacity and profit have fluctuated significantly. Since the supply - side reform in 2016, the coking industry has followed the coal industry in a recovery. After continuous elimination of backward production capacity, the coking capacity increased in 2021 - 2023 but with a sharp decline in profit per ton of coke. In 2025, the coking capacity increased slightly, and the coke output reached a record high of 504 million tons. The coking industry is in the capacity release cycle, with the top ten coke - producing provinces accounting for over 77% of the total output [220][221][225] China's Coke Imports and Exports - China's coke exports have been around 7 - 9 million tons since 2016. In 2025, coke exports decreased, and imports increased, contributing to a loose domestic supply - demand situation [231][235] Part 5: Analysis of China's Coal - Coking Industry Demand Pattern - In 2025, China's cumulative crude steel production was 961 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%; pig iron production was 836 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%; and steel production was 1.446 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The crude steel production has been decreasing for five consecutive years, and it is expected to remain at 960 - 950 million tons in 2026 [238][240] Part 6: Analysis of Coal - Coking Prices, Inventories, and Industry Profits Comparison of Coking Coal Prices in Shanxi - By comparing the prices of low - sulfur and medium - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi, it is found that the price difference between Anze low - sulfur coking coal and Jiexiu 1.3 medium - sulfur coking coal has remained around 200 yuan since 2023. In 2025, the price of different coking coal varieties in Shanxi showed a V - shaped reversal, with high - sulfur coking coal having a larger price increase amplitude from the lowest point than low - sulfur coking coal [247][249][250] Comparison of Mongolian Coking Coal Prices - In 2025, the average monthly price of Mongolian coking coal (Meng 5 raw coal and Meng 5 clean coal) fell below the previous lows [265] Comparison of Mongolian Coking Coal Inventories and Coking Coal Futures Prices - The coking coal inventory in the Ganqimaodu Port Customs Supervision Area is negatively correlated with the trend of coking coal futures [271] Relationship between Thermal Coal Price Trends and Coking Coal Futures - Since the coking coal 2304 contract was modified to be based on 1.3 medium - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi, thermal coal traders have participated in coking coal futures for trend hedging [276] Comparison of Profits in the Coal - Coking - Steel Industry Chain - Currently, coking enterprises have low bargaining power in the coal - coking - steel industry chain due to weak coking coal prices and the capacity release period of the coking industry. From 2016 - 2022, the three industries in the coal - coking - steel industry chain were profitable, but since 2022, the profit of coking enterprises has fluctuated around the break - even point, and the profit of the steel industry has shrunk significantly. In 2025, the profit of the steel industry improved but fell into monthly losses in December, while the profit of the coal industry recovered in the second half of the year [282] Comparison of Coal - Coking Industry Inventories - In 2025, coke inventory was positively correlated with coking profit. In the first half of the year, coke inventory was high due to falling coal prices, and then decreased as coal prices rose. In December, coke inventory increased again as steel mill profits shrank [286] Part 7: Coal - Coking Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2025, the total supply of carbon elements was 601.56 million tons, and the total demand was 605.78 million tons, with a supply - demand gap of - 4.22 million tons. In 2026, it is estimated that the total supply will be 609.56 million tons, and the total demand will be 600.87 million tons, with a supply - demand surplus of 8.68 million tons [287][288] Part 8: Industry or Enterprise Research and Outlook - The 2026 National Energy Work Conference summarized the energy work in 2025 and the "14th Five - Year Plan" and deployed key tasks for 2026. In 2025, the energy sector showed strong resilience, with achievements in energy security, green and low - carbon transformation, technological innovation, market construction, and international cooperation [290][291][293] Part 9: Coking Coal Futures Hedging Cases - **Case 1**: A large coal - washing plant in Shanxi planned to purchase 30,000 tons of Mongolian coal for winter storage in October. By using coking coal futures for hedging, it not only avoided the price - fall risk during the purchase period but also made a profit of 5.4 million yuan [294][295] - **Case 2**: A large coal - producing enterprise in Shanxi sold short coking coal futures in 2026 when the market price of its main low - sulfur coking coal was rising but the real - world impact was limited. It made a profit of 424,600 yuan through hedging [297][298] Part 10: Futures Technical Analysis and Outlook Price Seasonal Analysis - **Coking coal futures**: The 05 contract has a higher probability of falling in December and January and rising in April; the 09 contract shows large fluctuations in April; the 01 contract has a higher probability of rising in September and falling back in October [300][302] - **Coke futures**: The 05 contract has a higher probability of falling in December and March; the 09 contract shows large fluctuations in April and a higher probability of falling in August; the 01 contract has a higher probability of rising in September and falling back in October [304][306] Technical Analysis and Outlook - **Coking coal main continuous contract**: After breaking through the long - term downward pressure level in August - September 2025, it failed to effectively break through above 1400 - 1500 yuan/ton under position - limit control. Currently, it is oscillating in the range of 1000 - 1300 yuan/ton and showing signs of weakening [308] - **Coke main continuous contract**: It has not broken through the long - term downward channel. If it cannot break below 1400 yuan/ton, it may rebound and冲击 the 1800 - yuan/ton top again; if it breaks below 1450 yuan/ton, it may start bottom - grinding towards the previous low of 1200 yuan/ton [314] Part 11: Summary and 2025 Operation Suggestions Summary - Under the "dual - carbon" background, the coal - coking industry is in the capacity release period while the crude steel output is decreasing. The industry is prone to a prisoner's dilemma, and policy - guided production cuts are needed to stabilize prices. It is expected that in 2025, the coking coal price will hover at a low level, with the coking coal futures price fluctuating around 800 - 1100 yuan/ton and the coke futures price fluctuating around 1200 - 1400 yuan/ton [315][316] Operation Suggestions - For coking coal, it is recommended to go short on rallies in 2025. The JM05 and JM09 contracts are more favorable for sellers. The cost of the JM2701 contract will increase by 110 - 140 yuan/ton. There is a possibility of an enlarged reverse spread between the 09 and 01 contracts. Coke futures still follow the coking coal futures due to unopened position limits, and the impact of the adjustment of the J2604 contract on delivery pricing and spread structure needs further observation [319]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - There are no explicit core viewpoints presented in the given text. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 General Information - The report is the Maike Futures Basis Statistics Table dated March 6, 2026, at 9:00 [2]. - The settlement price is used for non - ferrous metal futures, and the closing price is used for other futures. The basis rate is the main contract basis rate, calculated as (spot price - main contract price) / main contract price, and the sample for historical basis rate extremes is from January 1, 2015, to the present. Data sources include Wind Financial Terminal and Steel Union Data Terminal [3]. 3.2 Futures Product Data - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For example, the main contract basis rate of copper is 0.14%, the spot price is 101560, and the price of the main contract is 101330. Aluminum has a basis rate of - 0.16%, zinc 0.26%, lead - 1.16%, tin 1.59%, and nickel 1.88% [3]. - **Industrial Metals**: Industrial silicon has a basis rate of 5.85%, and stainless steel 2.80% [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil has a basis rate of - 17.34%, fuel oil 15.63%, and asphalt - 2.98% [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Soybean has a basis rate of - 11.87%, bean粕 5.17%, and peanut 16.34% [3]. - **Soft Commodities**: Sugar has a basis rate of 1.13%, and methanol 1.93% [3]. - **Financial Futures**: CSI 300 Index Futures has a basis rate of 0.40%, SSE 50 Index Futures 0.05%, and CSI 500 Index Futures 0.65% [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices declined collectively this week, with the STAR 50 being the weakest, falling over 4%. The four stock - index futures also dropped collectively, and small - and medium - cap stocks were weaker than large - cap blue - chip stocks. The US - Israel attack on Iran at the weekend caused a global stock - market shock, but the A - share market showed a relatively independent trend on Monday. Subsequently, due to rising oil prices, the A - share market weakened significantly on Tuesday and Wednesday. After the Two Sessions, the market focus shifted back to domestic issues, and the positive arrangements in the government work report for 2026 drove the stock market to rebound. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - The government bond futures strengthened collectively this week. The 2026 government work report did not show obvious policy signals beyond expectations. The expansion speed of broad fiscal expenditure weakened marginally, and the supply pressure of government bonds was generally controllable. The monetary policy will still mainly rely on structural tools, and the use of aggregate tools will be cautious. The current fundamental situation is still in the "weak recovery" stage, which provides bottom support for the bond market. It is expected that the subsequent interest rates will maintain a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations [6]. - The re - inflation expectation suppressed the precious - metal prices, while the unresolved and expanding US - Iran conflict continued to drive up oil prices. The commodity index is expected to show a relatively strong trend. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - The rising oil price pushed up the inflation expectation, and the hawkish policy expectation led to a decline in the interest - rate cut expectation. The inflow of market risk - aversion funds provided support for the US dollar. Affected by the strong US dollar and the widening US - Europe interest - rate spread, the euro and the yen were under pressure this week. It is recommended to observe cautiously [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - **Stocks**: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index fell 1.07%, and the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Stock - Index Futures dropped 1.32%. A - share major indices declined collectively, with the STAR 50 falling over 4%. The four stock - index futures also declined, and small - and medium - cap stocks were weaker than large - cap blue - chip stocks. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - **Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year government bond due decreased by 0.22%, and the weekly change was - 0.39BP. The main 10 - year government bond futures rose 0.13%. Government bond futures strengthened collectively, and the 2026 government work report did not have significant policy surprises. The fundamental situation is in the "weak recovery" stage, and interest rates are expected to range - bound. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations [6]. - **Commodities**: The Wind Commodity Index dropped 5.75%, and the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index rose 3.81%. The re - inflation expectation affected precious - metal prices, and the US - Iran conflict drove up oil prices. The commodity index is expected to be relatively strong. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro against the US dollar fell 1.75%, and the euro against the US dollar 2603 contract dropped 1.76%. Rising oil prices and hawkish policy expectations affected the exchange - rate, and the euro and the yen were under pressure. It is recommended to observe cautiously [6] 3.2 Important News and Events - **China - US and China - Germany Economic and Trade**: The Chinese and US sides will maintain communication through the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism. China and Germany reached more than ten business agreements in the economic and trade field. China and Germany will strengthen communication and cooperation under the framework of the China - Germany High - Level Financial Dialogue [14]. - **Shanghai Real - Estate Policy**: Shanghai issued the "Seven Measures in Shanghai", which mainly adjusted and reduced the purchase - restriction policy, increased the maximum amount of provident - fund family loans, and exempted property tax for some home purchases [14]. - **International Tensions**: The US and Israel launched an air strike on Iran on February 28. Iran counter - attacked and claimed to have hit multiple US military targets in the Middle East. The US may impose a 15% global tariff soon [15]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: The official manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0, the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5, and the composite PMI was 49.5. The manufacturing industry was affected by the Spring Festival, and the non - manufacturing industry was boosted by the service industry. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 136.34 billion yuan this week [12][13][18]. - **US**: The US ISM manufacturing PMI data was stronger than expected, the new - order index was resilient, and the inflation sub - item increased significantly. The ADP employment increase in February exceeded market expectations. The US 12 - month factory - order month - on - month rate was - 0.7%, and the initial jobless claims for the week ending February 21 were 2.12 million [11][16]. - **EU**: The euro - zone's January unemployment rate dropped to 6.1%, the February CPI was up 1.9% year - on - year, and the January CPI annual rate was 1.7%. The euro - zone's February industrial sentiment index was - 7.1 [11][16]. - **Germany**: Germany's fourth - quarter unadjusted GDP annual rate was 0.6%, and the January seasonally - adjusted industrial output month - on - month rate is to be released on March 9 [16][76]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - **March 9**: China's February CPI and PPI annual rates, Germany's January seasonally - adjusted industrial output month - on - month rate, and the US February New York Fed's one - year inflation expectation [76]. - **March 10**: Germany's January seasonally - adjusted trade balance, and France's January trade balance [76]. - **March 11**: Germany's February CPI month - on - month final value, the US February unadjusted CPI and core CPI annual rates [76]. - **March 13**: The UK's January three - month GDP month - on - month rate, January manufacturing output month - on - month rate, France's February CPI month - on - month final value, the euro - zone's January industrial output month - on - month rate, the US January core PCE price index annual rate, the fourth - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate revised value, and the January durable - goods order month - on - month rate [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage of increasing supply and demand, with inventory being depleted. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions at low prices with a light position and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythms [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The weekly line of the lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated weakly, with a change of - 11.29%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 156,160 yuan/ton [5] - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The government work report set the main expected goals for 2026: economic growth of 4.5% - 5%, and an effort to achieve better results in actual work; the increase in consumer prices is about 2% [5] - **Fundamentals**: Overseas mines are holding prices and reluctant to sell, and smelters' inquiry sentiment has increased. However, due to large fluctuations in lithium prices, both buyers and sellers remain relatively cautious [5] - **Supply**: Upstream lithium salt plants have resumed production after the holiday, and the pressure on lithium carbonate prices has increased the upstream's willingness to hold prices. The volume of lithium carbonate exports from Chile has rebounded, and it is expected that the domestic import volume of lithium carbonate will also increase after the arrival of the goods, so the supply of lithium carbonate will continue to grow [5] - **Demand**: The resumption of work and production of downstream enterprises after the holiday and the order scheduling situation have significantly improved. In addition, the decline in lithium carbonate prices has increased the downstream's willingness to purchase and replenish inventory, and the spot market transactions are relatively active [5] - **Inventory**: The overall industrial inventory is in a downward trend, with obvious shipments from traders and replenishment of downstream inventory [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of March 6, 2026, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 156,160 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 19,880 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread of lithium carbonate was - 2,140 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,880 yuan/ton [11] - **Spot Price**: As of March 6, 2026, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 155,250 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 16,750 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 910 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3,130 yuan/ton [17] 3.3 Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: As of March 6, 2026, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 2,505 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 350 US dollars/ton. As of the latest data this week, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.9003, with a week - on - week increase of 0.89% [21] - **Lithium Mica**: As of March 6, 2026, the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 14,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,350 yuan/ton. As of the latest data, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 7,175 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 788 yuan/ton [25] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply**: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,988.66 tons, an increase of 1,933.47 tons from November, an increase of 8.77%, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.43%. The monthly export volume was 911.898 tons, an increase of 152.66 tons from November, an increase of 20.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 45.97%. As of January 2026, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 59,470 tons, an increase of 2,650 tons from December, an increase of 4.66%, and a year - on - year increase of 69.29%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5%, and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [31] - **Downstream Demand** - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: As of March 6, 2026, the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium was 111,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 yuan/ton. As of January 2026, the monthly output of electrolyte was 219,600 tons, a decrease of 13,550 tons from December, a decrease of 5.81%, and a year - on - year increase of 50.76% [34] - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 58,550 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,700 yuan/ton. As of January 2026, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 245,080 tons, a decrease of 24,250 tons from December, a decrease of 9%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.76%. The monthly operating rate was - 60% month - on - month and - 57% year - on - year [37] - **Ternary Materials**: As of January 2026, the monthly output of ternary materials was 59,560 tons, a decrease of 870 tons from December, a decrease of 1.44%, and a year - on - year increase of 19.31%. The monthly operating rate was - 50% month - on - month and - 44% year - on - year. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 continued to decline [42] - **Lithium Manganate**: As of January 2026, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 9,740 tons, a decrease of 290 tons from December, a decrease of 2.89%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.95%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 54,000 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week [47] - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 400,500 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week. As of January 2026, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 15,630 tons, a decrease of 140 tons from December, a decrease of 0.89%, and a year - on - year increase of 131.56% [50] - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of January 2026, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 40.28%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.65% and a year - on - year increase of 1.32%. The monthly output was 1,041,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 39.41%; the sales volume was 945,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 44.74%. The cumulative export volume was 302,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 101.33% [53][57] 3.5 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.09, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to build a short straddle option to bet on increased volatility [62]

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices declined collectively this week, with the STAR 50 being the weakest, dropping over 4%. The four stock - index futures also fell, and small - and mid - cap stocks were weaker than large - cap blue - chip stocks [8][97]. - There were numerous domestic and overseas market news this week. The Middle East conflict continued to escalate, pushing up oil prices, reducing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI declined in February, while the non - manufacturing PMI rose slightly. The government work report set a lower economic growth target for 2026 but showed a shift towards high - quality development and more active fiscal policies [97]. - As the impact of overseas geopolitical conflicts on re - inflation expectations is gradually digested by the market, the Two Sessions have become the current market focus. The support for high - tech manufacturing in the government work report boosted related sectors, and the positive fiscal policy strengthened the market's expectation of policy - supported economic growth [97]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review | Futures/Spot | Contract/Index Name | Weekly Change (%) | Friday Change (%) | Closing Price | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Futures | IF2603 | - 1.44 | 0.60 | 4646.0 | | | IH2603 | - 1.82 | 0.29 | 2990.0 | | | IC2603 | - 3.73 | 1.17 | 8322.6 | | | IM2603 | - 3.75 | 1.40 | 8211.8 | | Spot | CSI 300 | - 1.07 | 0.27 | 4660.44 | | | SSE 50 | - 1.54 | 0.14 | 2992.70 | | | CSI 500 | - 3.44 | 0.62 | 8360.33 | | | CSI 1000 | - 3.64 | 0.95 | 8248.86 | [11] 3.2 News Overview - On February 28th (local time), the US and Israel launched an air strike on Iran. US President Trump said the attack aimed to destroy Iran's missile industry and navy, and prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that the goal was to overthrow the Iranian regime [14]. - On March 4th, China's National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that the official manufacturing PMI in February was 49 (expected 49.7, previous 49.3), the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. - The government work report set the 2026 economic growth target at 4.5% - 5%, the urban surveyed unemployment rate at around 5.5%, and the goal of creating over 12 million new urban jobs. It also proposed to continue implementing more active fiscal policies (deficit rate around 4%, deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year; general public budget expenditure of 30 trillion yuan for the first time, an increase of about 1.27 trillion yuan from the previous year; issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds) and moderately loose monetary policies [15]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - **Domestic Major Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.93%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.22%, the STAR 50 fell 4.95%, the SME 100 fell 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.45% [19]. - **Overseas Major Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 fell 0.70%, the UK FTSE 100 fell 4.55%, the Nikkei 225 fell 5.49%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 3.28% [20]. - **Sector Performance**: Most industry sectors declined, with the petroleum and petrochemical sector rising significantly and the media sector falling notably. - **Sector Main - Force Fund Flow**: Industry main - force funds generally showed net outflows, with significant net outflows in the electronics, non - ferrous metals, and computer sectors, and only a slight net inflow in the comprehensive sector [28]. - **SHIBOR Short - Term Interest Rates**: SHIBOR short - term interest rates declined, indicating a generally loose capital market [32]. - **Other Data**: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 12.586 billion yuan in the secondary market, the market value of restricted shares lifted was 43.713 billion yuan, and the total trading volume of northbound funds was 14.38786 trillion yuan. The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM all fluctuated [35]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The external environment still restricts A - shares due to the escalating Middle East conflict, rising oil prices, and reduced Fed interest - rate cut expectations. - Domestically, the manufacturing showed a weak supply - demand situation in February, but the non - manufacturing was supported by strong consumer spending. The government work report indicated a shift towards high - quality economic development and more active fiscal policies. - As the market digests the impact of overseas conflicts and focuses on the domestic situation, the stable and improving fundamentals will support the market [97].

Index Trends - On March 5th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.64% to close at 4,108.57 points, with a trading volume of 1.068044 trillion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.23% to close at 14,088.84 points, with a trading volume of 1.321994 trillion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.95%, with a trading volume of 508.72853430000005 billion yuan. The opening price was 8,235.37, the closing price was 8,171.12, the highest price of the day was 8,243.83, and the lowest price was 8,121.38 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.73%, with a trading volume of 472.941 billion yuan. The opening price was 8,383.55, the closing price was 8,309.17, the highest price of the day was 8,391.04, and the lowest price was 8,251.11 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.48%, with a trading volume of 139.933 billion yuan. The opening price was 2,993.59, the closing price was 2,988.45, the highest price of the day was 3,001.02, and the lowest price was 2,978.09 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.48%, with a trading volume of 139.933 billion yuan. The opening price was 2,993.59, the closing price was 2,988.45, the highest price of the day was 3,001.02, and the lowest price was 2,978.09 [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 76.6 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and machinery had a significant upward pull on the index [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 60.23 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and machinery had a significant upward pull on the index, while sectors such as non-ferrous metals had a downward pull [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 45.07 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as power equipment, electronics, and communications had a significant upward pull on the index [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 14.24 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as electronics, banks, and non-bank finance had a significant upward pull on the index, while sectors such as non-ferrous metals and petroleum and petrochemicals had a downward pull [2]. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - The average daily basis for IM00 was -41.77, IM01 was -89.02, IM02 was -237.54, and IM03 was -435.62 [12]. - The average daily basis for IC00 was -42.7, IC01 was -73.85, IC02 was -195.98, and IC03 was -362.05 [12]. - The average daily basis for IF00 was -19.89, IF01 was -33.06, IF02 was -76.46, and IF03 was -146.36 [12]. - The average daily basis for IH00 was -3.43, IH01 was -4.89, IH02 was -14.54, and IH03 was -52.46 [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Stock Index**: The market showed an intraday rally followed by a decline, with all three major indices rising. About 4,100 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets closed higher, and the trading volume on the day was 2.41 trillion yuan. The Sino - US conflict has a significant impact on market risk appetite, and most global equity markets have declined, with the A - share market also experiencing a correction. In the short term, if the conflict ends quickly, the impact on the A - share market is limited; otherwise, it may shock global stock markets. In the medium term, the A - share market is likely to remain volatile, but volatility may increase. Since December last year, A - share technology themes have outperformed US - listed Chinese concept stocks and the Hang Seng Technology Index, and the RMB has entered a rapid appreciation channel, which may support the A - share market in the first half of 2026. On the other hand, the article "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis" has triggered concerns about AI squeezing out the traditional economy, and the software, service, and finance sectors have seen significant declines in the Chinese and US stock markets [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed with declines in the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts. The central bank conducted 23 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 297.5 billion yuan due to 320.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities. The government work report set the GDP target at 4.5 - 5.0%, continued to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. In the short term, with weak expectations of interest rate cuts, the bond market lacks the impetus for a trend breakthrough and remains in a volatile pattern [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: The market showed an intraday rally followed by a decline, with all three major indices rising. The Sino - US conflict affects market risk appetite. In the short term, the impact on the A - share market depends on the duration of the conflict. In the medium term, the A - share market is likely to be volatile, and technology themes may support the market. The article about AI has affected the market [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed lower. The central bank's open - market operations led to a net withdrawal of funds. The government work report set economic targets and fiscal and monetary policies. The bond market is in a volatile pattern in the short term [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On March 5, 2026, compared with March 4, 2026, IH rose 0.50%, IF rose 0.83%, IC rose 0.44%, and IM rose 0.82% [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 0.48%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.98%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.73%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.95% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS fell 0.02%, TF fell 0.03%, T fell 0.01%, and TL remained unchanged [3]. 3.3 Market News - **"14th Five - Year Plan" Outline Draft**: It proposed 20 main indicators, including 3 in economic development, 3 in innovation - driven, 7 in people's well - being, 5 in green and low - carbon, and 2 in security [4]. - **2026 Development Goals**: The economic growth target is 4.5 - 5%, the urban survey unemployment rate is about 5.5%, the number of new urban jobs is over 12 million, the CPI increase is about 2%, and other targets are also set [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: Charts show the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts and their basis trends [6][7][9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Charts show the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and fund interest rates [12][14][16][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: Charts show the trends of the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, euro - RMB central parity rate, forward exchange rates, US dollar index, and exchange rates between different currencies [21][22][25][26].