1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market is in a phase of correction due to reduced short - term safe - haven premiums for gold and strong market wait - and - see sentiment, but there is still medium - term buying support [3]. - The copper market is expected to maintain high - level oscillatory consolidation in the short term, as the conversion of market attention into actual transactions and macro - level support are needed for price increases [15]. - The aluminum market has seen strong price performance due to the resonance of macro and fundamental factors. Future price trends depend on the Fed's interest rate decision and potential capital movements [36]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in China compared to overseas. Low inventory supports prices, and short - term attention should be paid to the opening of the export window and macro - level upward drivers [59]. - The nickel industry has different trends for different products. Nickel ore prices may continue to be strong, nickel iron prices have declined, and stainless steel may experience wide - range oscillations [74]. - The tin market is expected to remain strong in the short term as supply is weaker than demand and supply - side disruptions are difficult to resolve quickly [89]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to see increased demand, which may support prices. If the supply of lithium concentrate cannot be replenished, prices may rise [102]. - The industrial silicon market may see a slight increase in price as production cuts are expected during the dry season, but price increases are limited by inventory. The polysilicon market has a weak fundamental outlook [113]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Market Conditions**: The short - term safe - haven premium of gold is weakened, and the precious metals market is in a correction phase. The实物贴水 has expanded to 6.18 yuan/gram, but there is still medium - term buying support [3]. - **Data Charts**: Include SHFE and COMEX gold and silver prices, price ratios, and inventory data [4][11][14]. Copper - **Market Outlook**: The spot price and premium are weak, and the market needs to convert attention into actual transactions and have macro - level support for price increases. It will maintain high - level oscillatory consolidation in the short term [15]. - **Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai and London copper futures and spot, price changes, and inventory data are provided [16][22][32]. Aluminum - **Market Analysis**: Macro policies are the core factors affecting the price of Shanghai aluminum. The domestic fundamentals are stable, and overseas supply disruptions have driven up prices. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy has strong support [36]. - **Data**: Include the latest prices of aluminum and alumina futures and spot, price differences, and inventory data [37][46][53]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand situation has not changed significantly. The domestic supply is stable, and overseas production has been cut. The price difference has widened, and low inventory supports prices. Short - term attention should be paid to the export window and macro - level drivers [59]. - **Data**: Provide the latest prices of zinc futures and spot, price changes, and inventory data [60][67][71]. Nickel - **Industry Trends**: Nickel ore prices may continue to be strong due to new regulations and high downstream demand. Nickel iron prices have declined, and stainless steel may experience wide - range oscillations [74]. - **Data**: Include the latest prices of nickel and stainless steel futures, trading volume, open interest, and inventory data [75]. Tin - **Market Forecast**: The supply of tin is weaker than demand, and short - term supply - side disruptions are difficult to resolve. The Shanghai tin market is expected to remain strong, with support around 276,000 yuan [89]. - **Data**: Provide the latest prices of tin futures and spot, price changes, and inventory data [90][92][97]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Outlook**: Market demand is good, and inventory is decreasing. If the supply of lithium concentrate cannot be replenished, prices may rise [102]. - **Data**: Include the latest prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot, price differences, and inventory data [103][107][111]. Silicon Industry - **Market Analysis**: Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly during the dry season, but are limited by inventory. The polysilicon market has a weak fundamental outlook [113]. - **Data**: Provide the latest prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon, price differences, and inventory data [114][123][142].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The US government shutdown continues, causing the US dollar index to fluctuate. The stock market shows different trends, with US stock indices rising due to tech companies' capital expansion, while the Shanghai Composite Index faces a resistance level after breaking through 4000 points. [1][2][3] - In the commodity market, factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy rumors, and corporate actions affect prices. For example, rumors of China's control over syrup imports are beneficial to the domestic sugar market, and the short - term de - stocking of lithium carbonate supports its price. [4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US government shutdown may last until November, leading to various negative impacts. The US consumer confidence index in October was 94.6. Gold prices fluctuated downward, breaking through the $4000 mark. Short - term gold lacks upward momentum and may still decline. [12][13] - Investment advice: Wait for a better time to buy gold as it has not stabilized yet. [13] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - South Korea's business confidence index declined in October. The US House Speaker poured cold water on Trump's 2028 candidacy. The US Senate failed to pass a bill to end the government shutdown. The US government shutdown continues, putting downward pressure on the US dollar index, which is expected to fluctuate. [14][15] - Investment advice: Expect the US dollar to trade in a range. [16] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The full text of the "15th Five - Year Plan" was released, setting economic and social development goals and promoting the development of strategic emerging industries. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4000 points but then declined. It may be a short - term resistance level, but there may be medium - term upward momentum. [16][17] - Investment advice: Allocate evenly among long positions in various stock indices. [17] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - OpenAI reached an agreement to transform into a for - profit organization, with Microsoft holding 27% of the shares. The US private sector's average new jobs in the past four weeks were about 14,250. The market is turning cautious before the interest rate meeting, but tech giants' capital expansion supports the index. [18][19] - Investment advice: Be bullish on US stocks with a bias towards a long - position strategy. [19] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 4753 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to be slightly weak in the short term, but there will be better buying opportunities. In November, with weak fundamentals and expected central bank actions, broad - based monetary policy may drive the bond market. [20] - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to go long on treasury bond futures at low prices. [21] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - ANEC expects Brazil's soybean exports in October to be 7 million tons. Affected by the expected Sino - US agreement, CBOT soybean prices rose, driving up the cost of imported soybeans and soybean meal prices in China. [22] - Investment advice: Monitor Sino - US leaders' meetings and China's actual purchases of US soybeans as soybean meal prices follow the external market and import costs. [22] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan is facing a sugar crisis, and the government is accused of yielding to sugar mills. Brazil's increased corn - ethanol production has pressured sugar prices. India announced an 11 - month sugar domestic sales quota of 2 million tons. Rumors of China's control over syrup and premixed powder imports may benefit the domestic sugar market. [23][25][27] - Investment advice: The rumors are positive for Zhengzhou sugar in the short term. The price may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to relevant policies at the national sugar conference. [28] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Shennong Group's full - cost in September was 12.5 yuan/kg. Market sentiment for secondary fattening has increased, driving up prices slightly. However, due to insufficient capacity reduction and speculative demand, the supply - surplus situation remains. [29][31] - Investment advice: Short - sell near - month contracts on rebounds and focus on the LH2603 contract. Consider reverse - spread opportunities. [31] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Jujubes) - The price of jujubes in Hebei's Cui'erzhuang market has weakened. The futures price of the main contract has declined. The supply is in the normal drying period, and the demand is weak. [31][32] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and focus on price negotiations and acquisition progress in the production areas. [32] 3.2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in northern ports remained stable on the 28th. With the end of the railway maintenance, port inventories may accumulate. Coastal power consumption has declined seasonally, and coal prices may weaken slightly in 1 - 2 weeks but remain strong in the fourth quarter. [33] - Investment advice: Expect steam coal prices to weaken slightly in the short term but remain strong in the fourth quarter. [33] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Onslow Iron has been operating at full capacity for three months. Iron ore prices are in a volatile range. Demand is weak, but there is still some spot buying. The price is expected to remain volatile with upward pressure. [34] - Investment advice: Iron ore prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with limited upside. [34] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises in different regions had varying theoretical profits on October 28. The 11 - contract CS - C spread fluctuated narrowly. The 01 - contract may see a spread repair similar to the 11 - contract. [35][36] - Investment advice: Expect a spread - repair market for the 01 - contract similar to the 11 - contract. [36] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Domestic corn prices are weak, with prices in ports and Northeast deep - processing plants falling, and prices in North China deep - processing plants fluctuating. Futures prices are narrowly volatile. [37] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term as short - selling has a poor risk - return ratio, and it may be too early to go long. [38] 3.2.9 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - The production schedules of major white - goods in November 2025 have decreased. Chongqing Iron and Steel has changed its controlling shareholder. The steel price is volatile, with limited upward momentum due to weakening demand and inventory pressure. [39][40][41] - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading approach and be cautious about upward rebounds. [42] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Shuangliang Energy Saving's Q3 report shows a significant reduction in losses. Polysilicon spot prices are stable, with some orders being delivered. Terminal demand has weakened since late October, but considering upstream inventory and ongoing policies, prices are expected to remain stable. [43][44] - Investment advice: Buy on dips if the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. Take profits if the futures price is at a significant premium. [45] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead 0 - 3 spread was at a discount of $33.8/ton on October 27. The LME inventory decreased, and the outer - market price rose. The domestic lead price was slightly affected, with short - term supply shortages and long - term demand uncertainties. [46] - Investment advice: Be cautious when going long on lead in the short term. Consider positive - spread opportunities for the spread and be cautious in cross - border trading. [47] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc 0 - 3 spread was at a premium of $212.89/ton on October 27. Peru and Chile's zinc concentrate exports have changed. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic zinc market has supply and demand challenges. The zinc price may be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term. [48][49][51] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. Look for medium - term positive - spread opportunities and be cautious in cross - border trading. [51] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In October, the operating rate and output of industrial silicon in Yunnan decreased. The inventory is expected to be difficult to deplete in November and may decrease in December. [52][53] - Investment advice: Buying industrial silicon at low prices may be more cost - effective. [54] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Anglo American's Q3 copper production increased, and an Australian investment company is involved in the strategic metals market. The macro environment supports copper prices, but high prices have affected downstream restocking. The spot price may remain at a discount. [55][56] - Investment advice: Adopt a buy - on - dips strategy for single - side trading and a wait - and - see approach for spreads. [57] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Albemarle simplifies its business by selling a stake in Ketjen. Lithium carbonate inventory is decreasing, and the price is supported in the short term, but further upward movement depends on supply disruptions. [58][59] - Investment advice: Use a range - trading strategy in the short term and consider short - selling opportunities when demand peaks. Take profits on the LC2511 - LC2601 reverse - spread and look for positive - spread opportunities for LC2601 against more distant contracts. [59] 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts increased on October 28. The short - term market is affected by Sino - US relations and the interest - rate cycle. The global nickel inventory is accumulating, and the price may fluctuate within a narrow range above the cost. [60][61] - Investment advice: Consider going long on nickel at low prices for allocation purposes. Speculators can consider selling out - of - the - money puts and buying deep - out - of - the - money calls. [61] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US API crude oil inventory decreased. Oil prices fell, and the risk premium has declined. The impact of sanctions on Russian oil supply is uncertain. [62][63] - Investment advice: Expect crude oil prices to fluctuate in the short term and monitor geopolitical situations. [63] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - Iran's Marjan methanol plant has restarted. Methanol prices have fallen with increased positions. The market is bearish, and the price may continue to decline. [64] - Investment advice: Hold short positions and consider adding short positions for aggressive investors. Set a profit - taking target between 2150 - 2200 yuan/ton. [65] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market is stable, with some varieties showing a strengthening trend. The futures price is volatile. The market may have limited upward space due to poor supply - demand fundamentals. [66][67] - Investment advice: The pulp price may be relatively strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited. [67] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong has declined. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited. The price of caustic soda may continue to fall. [68][69] - Investment advice: Short - sell caustic soda at high prices but be cautious when chasing short positions due to the large discount in the futures price and potential demand from new alumina capacity. [69] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in the Shahe area is fluctuating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is average. High inventory levels are suppressing the price. [70] - Investment advice: The downward space for soda ash is limited in the short term, and attention should be paid to coal prices and new - capacity releases. [70] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market is stable. The futures price has rebounded due to short - covering. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is weak. [71][72] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach as the terminal demand is weak, and short - selling at the current level is risky due to potential policy impacts and the futures discount to the spot price. [72] 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA closing price on October 28 was 51.73 yuan/ton, a 3.69% decline. The trading volume has increased slightly, but the price has fallen significantly. The supply - demand structure is balanced and loose, and the price may fluctuate widely during the compliance period. [73] - Investment advice: Expect CEA prices to fluctuate widely in the short term. [74] 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - A collision accident occurred to a 13,000 TEU container ship in the Pearl River Estuary. The MSK W46 line's opening price decreased, and other shipping companies may follow suit in November. The 12 - contract price may face resistance to upward breakthroughs. [75] - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy and avoid chasing long positions at the current level. [76]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overall, the global trade situation is showing signs of improvement, with positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the APEC meeting upcoming. The macro - economic sentiment is stable and positive. Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand fundamentals and price trends. Some metals face supply - side challenges, while others are affected by demand - side factors [1][16][20][24][28][59] - For copper, the macro sentiment improves, but the supply - side disturbances increase. The terminal consumption is weak, and the price is affected by multiple factors. For alumina, the supply is in excess, and the price is expected to bottom out in the short term. For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas supply is tight, and the domestic consumption has resilience, with a medium - term upward trend. For zinc, the external market is strong, and the internal market is weak, and the export situation needs to be closely monitored. For lead, the inventory is low in the short term, and the supply is expected to increase in the long term. For nickel, the price is in a range - bound operation. For stainless steel, the price faces resistance. For tin, the supply is tight, and the demand is slowly recovering. For industrial silicon, the production is expected to decrease, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. For polycrystalline silicon, the production is expected to decrease, and the inventory will accumulate but at a reduced rate. For lithium carbonate, the demand is optimistic, and the supply is tight, with a strong price trend [1][6][12][16][20][28][34][36][44][48][54][60][67][73][80] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2512 contract closed at 86,980 yuan/ton, down 1.09%. The spot premium widened. The Guangdong inventory decreased slightly, and the North China premium remained unchanged [1] - **Important Information**: China's central bank will resume open - market treasury bond trading. Sino - US high - level interactions are being prepared. Indonesia may allow copper concentrate exports. CMOC will invest in the KFM copper mine expansion. Anglo American's Q3 copper production increased [1] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro sentiment improves, but the supply - side disturbances increase. The SMM expects the October electrolytic copper production to decline. The consumption is weak, but there is still some resilience [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then go long on dips. Hold the inter - market long position. Wait and see for options [10] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell 8 yuan to 2,817 yuan/ton. The spot prices in most regions were stable, with some minor declines [6] - **Related Information**: Some enterprises made spot purchases. The national alumina inventory increased. The Australian alumina price decreased, and the import cost increased. The supply remained stable [7][8] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is in excess, and the pressure is increasing. The price is expected to bottom out in the short term and may rebound if production cuts expand. The import increment will suppress the price rebound [12] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the supply - side production cuts in November. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [13][14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract fell 120 yuan to 21,140 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions had different changes [16] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held. The aluminum inventory increased slightly. An overseas aluminum smelter had a production cut [16][17] - **Trading Logic**: The global trade situation eases, and the macro sentiment is positive. The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic consumption has resilience [20] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price has a medium - term upward trend. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21][22] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract fell 110 yuan to 20,575 yuan/ton. The spot prices in most regions increased [24] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. The APEC meeting is upcoming. The cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased. The import and export volumes of aluminum alloy changed [24][25] - **Trading Logic**: The macro factors are important. The cost is supported by the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the demand has resilience [28] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum alloy price fluctuates with the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.02% to 22,310 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased slightly, but the downstream procurement was poor [31] - **Related Information**: The domestic zinc inventory increased. Teck's Q3 zinc concentrate production decreased. Chihong Zinc & Germanium released its Q3 report. Shengda Resources' subsidiary's mine will resume production [32][33] - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply is abundant, and the overseas inventory is low. The external market is strong, and the internal market is weak. The export situation needs to be closely monitored [34][36] - **Trading Strategy**: Take profit on long positions and wait and see. Consider short - selling on rallies if the export volume is low. Consider long - SHFE and short - LME arbitrage according to the export situation. Wait and see for options [37] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 fell 0.91% to 17,355 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased, and the procurement enthusiasm declined [39] - **Related Information**: Some lead battery enterprises plan to reduce or stop production. A lead smelter is under maintenance. The lead inventory decreased [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term inventory is low, and the price rose. In the long term, the supply is expected to increase, and the inventory may gradually accumulate [44] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money call options [45] Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2512 fell 1,760 to 120,560 yuan/ton. The spot premiums of some nickel types decreased [46] - **Important Information**: Indonesia's nickel production is expanding. A nickel mine in the Philippines may be shut down. India is expanding e - waste recycling. A company in Indonesia won a nickel mining contract [47] - **Logic Analysis**: The precious metal correction led to a decline in non - ferrous metals. The LME nickel inventory is increasing, and the price is range - bound [48] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is in a range - bound operation. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell the 2512 contract wide - straddle combination [49][51] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel main contract SS2512 fell 65 to 12,750 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were in a certain range [53] - **Important Information**: Baosteel Desheng plans to reduce production and conduct maintenance. The export volume of stainless steel from Indonesia to Taiwan increased. The long - term purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group remained unchanged [54] - **Logic Analysis**: The terminal demand is not optimistic, and the cost support is weak. The price faces resistance [54] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell on rallies. Wait and see for arbitrage [55][56] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 283,170 yuan/ton, down 1,790 yuan/ton. The spot price increased, and the demand was affected by price fluctuations [58] - **Related Information**: Sino - US trade consultations are ongoing. The APEC meeting is upcoming. The domestic mobile phone shipment data was released [59] - **Logic Analysis**: The Sino - US trade situation may ease. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is slowly recovering [60] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is in a high - level range - bound operation. Wait and see for options [61][62] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The September export volume of industrial silicon decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The import volume decreased [64][66] - **Logic Analysis**: The production of industrial silicon is expected to decrease in November, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. The short - term price is relatively stable [67] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Go long on dips and wait for new drivers. No arbitrage opportunity for now. Sell out - of - the - money put options [68][69][70] Polycrystalline Silicon - **Important Information**: Three construction projects of the Three Gorges Group released tender announcements [72] - **Logic Analysis**: The production of polycrystalline silicon is expected to decrease in November, and the inventory will accumulate but at a reduced rate. The price has support [73] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Reduce long positions in the short term and buy on dips in the future. Conduct reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts. Hold call options [74][75][76] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 560 to 81,640 yuan/ton. The spot price increased [79] - **Important Information**: Xinwangda launched a new battery. Pilbara's Q3 lithium concentrate production increased. The sales of new - energy heavy - duty trucks increased [80] - **Logic Analysis**: The demand is optimistic, and the supply is tight. The price trend is strong, but there may be a correction [80] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [81][82]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, macro - sentiment has improved, which has re - boosted market risk appetite. The release of a loose - money signal has strengthened the expectation of a rise in bond futures, while the weakening of risk aversion has increased the decline of precious metals. Different commodity sectors show various trends based on their respective fundamentals and market factors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, all stock index futures have risen. For trading, it is advisable to try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The expectation of loose money has strengthened, and bond futures are expected to rise, though short - term fluctuations may occur due to multiple factors. Trading strategies include buying on dips and considering positive arbitrage strategies [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The risk aversion has subsided. Gold has stronger upward - driving forces, and it is recommended to buy at low levels below $4000. Silver may face pressure if gold falls after a short - term correction [3]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The main EC contract is oscillating in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: The apparent demand has recovered, and steel prices have strengthened following coal prices. Attention should be paid to the previous high pressure for long positions, and the arbitrage of long coking coal and short hot - rolled coil can be held [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipment and arrival have declined, port inventory has increased, and iron ore has rebounded steadily. Trading strategies include buying on dips and relevant arbitrage operations [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of origin coal is strong, and downstream replenishment demand has recovered. It is recommended to buy coking coal on dips and conduct relevant arbitrage [3]. - **Coke**: The first - round price increase was implemented before the festival, and the second - round increase has been officially implemented with expectations of further increases. Buy on dips and conduct relevant arbitrage [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: Sino - US preliminary consensus has led to a new high in copper prices. Attention should be paid to the support near 86,000 [3]. - **Alumina**: Although the spot trading is active, the short - term surplus situation is difficult to change, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,750 - 2,950 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The market is running strongly, and the spot discount has widened. The main contract range is 20,800 - 21,400 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The inventory has shown an inflection point, and the market is following the upward trend of aluminum prices. The main contract range is 20,200 - 20,800 [3]. - **Zinc**: The squeeze of LME zinc and macro - benefits have led to a slight increase in zinc prices. The main contract range is 21,800 - 22,800 [3]. - **Tin**: Supported by strong fundamentals, tin prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the fundamentals are weak during the policy window period. The main contract range is 120,000 - 128,000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is mainly oscillating, and the cost support is weak. The main contract range is 12,500 - 13,000 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The progress of the Sino - US trade agreement has alleviated market concerns about demand, and the short - term oil price is in a range. It is not advisable to chase high in the short term [3]. - **Urea**: The daily output is expected to increase gradually, and the supply is sufficient. The short - term improvement of the market is limited [3]. - **PX and PTA**: The cost center has risen, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. Attention should be paid to the pressure levels for long positions and relevant arbitrage operations [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term support is strong. The trading strategy is similar to that of PTA [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand pattern of bottle chips remains loose, and the processing fee is expected to decline in the short term [3]. - **Ethanol**: The short - term supply has slightly decreased, but the long - term supply - demand structure is weak. Relevant trading strategies include selling out - of - the - money call options and conducting reverse arbitrage [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot trading is okay, and the price is stable. It is recommended to be short in the short term [3]. - **PVC**: The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the market is oscillating. It is recommended to stop loss on short positions [3]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price drive is limited. It will follow the oscillations of styrene and oil prices in the short term [3]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the price may be under pressure. It is recommended to be short on the rebound of the December contract [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost support is weakening, but the supply is tightening. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **LLDPE**: The cost has risen sharply, and the trading has improved. Attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction inflection point [3]. - **PP**: The price has risen sharply, the basis has weakened slightly, and the trading is good. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Methanol**: The price is stable, and the trading is okay. Attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the March - May spread [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Meal**: The warming of Sino - US relations provides cost support for near - month soybeans. It is recommended to go long on the 2026 January contract [3]. - **Pig**: Secondary fattening has increased the difficulty of slaughterhouses' procurement, boosting pig prices. It is recommended to exit the March - July reverse arbitrage and wait and see [3]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure remains, and the market is oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the support near 2,100 [3]. - **Oil**: The market focuses on Sino - US negotiations, and the domestic soybean oil fundamentals are bearish. The main palm oil contract may test the support of 9,000 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply is loose, and the overall trend is bearish, oscillating at the bottom near 5,400 [3]. - **Cotton**: The cost of new cotton is gradually solidified, and the market is oscillating in the range of 13,200 - 13,600 [3]. - **Egg**: The spot price has risen, and it is a rebound from an oversold situation. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunity [3]. - **Apple**: The apple trading in the eastern region is active, and the price of high - quality goods has increased significantly. The main contract may break through and stabilize above 9,000 points [3]. - **Jujube**: The market sentiment is weak, and the market is oscillating downward. Attention should be paid to the support in the range of 10,000 - 10,300 [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is strongly affected by large - factory production cuts. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [3]. Special Commodity Sector - **Glass**: The trading volume has increased, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up of the spot market. It is recommended to stop loss on previous short positions and monitor the spot market [3]. - **Rubber**: The raw material price has continued to rebound, and the rubber price has continued to rise. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract has changed, and the market is mainly oscillating. The price range is 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: The main contract has changed, and positive news has stimulated the market to rise. The price is oscillating at a high level [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market remains strong, and the strong demand is gradually being realized. The main contract reference range is 80,000 - 84,000 yuan [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures are expected to continue their upward trend with fluctuations, while the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading has sparked enthusiasm for going long on treasury bond futures [5][18][21]. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of some products such as soybeans and sugar are affected by factors like trade relations and supply - demand changes, showing different trends [7][26][28]. - The steel market is showing a trend of continued strengthening, while the double - coking market has support at the bottom but faces resistance in upward movement [9][59][61]. - The precious metals market has broken through important support levels due to the easing of risk factors, and is expected to continue to adjust [11][69][71]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the stock index opened higher and closed higher. All major indices and futures contracts rose. The market is expected to continue its upward trend with fluctuations. Trading strategies include going long on dips, conducting IM/IC 2512 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and buying call options on the Sci - tech Innovation 50, Science and Technology Innovation Board 50, and ChiNext at low prices [18][19][20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Monday, treasury bond futures opened lower but closed higher. The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is expected to continue the "moderately loose" monetary policy. It is recommended to maintain a long - biased mindset for unilateral trading, and consider flattening the yield curve or shorting the inter - delivery spread for arbitrage [21][22][24]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The improvement in the macro - environment has driven up the US soybean price, but the international soybean supply pressure is still high. Domestic soybean meal has also risen, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [26][27][28]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the sugar market is bearish due to increased production in major producing areas. In China, the suspension of pre - mixed powder and syrup imports has a short - term bullish impact. The trading strategy includes short - term oscillation for unilateral trading, shorting US raw sugar and going long on domestic Zhengzhou sugar for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [28][29][31]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The short - term disk is expected to oscillate slightly weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and wait for the price to stabilize on dips before going long. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [32][33][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn futures rebounded, but the production is expected to be high. In China, the supply of corn is increasing, and the spot price is falling. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month US corn on dips, wait and see for the 01 - month contract, and wait for dips to go long on the 05 - and 07 - month contracts [36][37][38]. - **Hogs**: The short - term slaughter pressure has eased, but the overall supply is still high. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral and arbitrage trading, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [39][40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut price is in short - term bottom - range oscillation. It is recommended to go long on the 01 - and 05 - month contracts on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [41][42][43]. - **Eggs**: The supply of laying hens is still high, and the demand is average. It is recommended to close out previous short positions and wait and see for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [43][44][47]. - **Apples**: The quality of new - season apples is poor, but the purchase enthusiasm of merchants is high. The price is expected to oscillate slightly strongly in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [48][49][51]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The acquisition is at its peak, and the price is expected to oscillate slightly strongly. It is recommended to expect the US cotton to oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton to oscillate slightly strongly in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [53][54][57]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The steel price is expected to continue to strengthen. It is recommended to maintain a long - biased mindset for unilateral trading, continue to hold the long - spread position of hot - rolled coil and rebar for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [59][60][61]. - **Double - Coking**: The double - coking market has support at the bottom but faces resistance in upward movement. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions and look for opportunities to go long on dips for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [61][62][64]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is expected to face pressure at high levels. It is recommended to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, and for options [64][65][66]. - **Ferroalloys**: The macro - environment has driven a rebound, but the supply - demand pressure still exists. It is recommended to use the strategy of shorting after the low - valuation repair for unilateral trading, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [66][67][68]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market has broken through important support levels due to the easing of risk factors. It is recommended that conservative investors wait and see, while aggressive investors can conduct short - term intraday trading [69][70][71]. - **Copper**: The macro - environment has improved, and the supply is relatively tight. It is recommended to go long on dips for unilateral trading, continue to hold the long - position in cross - market arbitrage, and wait and see for options [73][74][76]. - **Alumina**: There is an expectation of production cuts on the supply side, and the price is expected to rebound slightly. It is recommended to go long on the short - term price rebound for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [77][78][80]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The macro - environment and fundamentals are in resonance, and the price is expected to strengthen in the medium term. It is recommended to expect the price to strengthen with fluctuations for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [81][82][83]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The global trade situation has eased, and the price is in an upward - oscillation channel. It is recommended to expect the price to strengthen with fluctuations for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [84][85][86]. - **Zinc**: It is recommended to go long on dips for unilateral trading, consider long - SHFE and short - LME arbitrage according to export conditions, and sell out - of - the - money put options [87][88][93]. - **Lead**: The lead price may fall from high levels. It is recommended to go short on rallies for unilateral trading, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [93][94][95]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is expected to maintain range - bound trading due to macro - benefits and loose supply - demand. No specific trading strategies are provided [98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The core driving factors remain unchanged, and the price direction continues. Industrial silicon may experience weak price trends due to increased supply and decreased demand, while polysilicon is likely to maintain a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation" and may fluctuate widely in the short - term. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to rise in the short - term due to supply - demand mismatch and cost increases, but the long - term supply surplus situation remains [1][8][9][91]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Part One: Non - ferrous and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Price Data**: The current value, daily, weekly, and annual price changes of various varieties such as the US dollar index, CNH exchange rate, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate are presented. For example, the current price of industrial silicon is 8,920 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.47%, a weekly increase of 2.71%, and an annual decrease of 18.80%. The current price of lithium carbonate is 79,520 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.53%, a weekly increase of 9.32%, and an annual increase of 3.14% [6]. 3.2 Part Two: Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production is 98,500 tons, a 1.05% increase from the previous week. The production in major regions shows different trends, with Xinjiang increasing by 2.28% week - on - week, Inner Mongolia decreasing by 1.91%, and Yunnan remaining unchanged. The production in September was 420,800 tons, a 9.10% increase from August, and the planned production in October is 456,600 tons, an 8.52% increase from September [8]. - **Demand Side**: The demand from polysilicon and organic silicon is weak. The weekly production of polysilicon decreased by 1.46% week - on - week, and the weekly production of DMC in organic silicon decreased by 2.81% [8]. - **Inventory Side**: The visible inventory decreased by 1.34% week - on - week, the industry inventory decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 3.57% [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9,093 yuan, a 0.07% increase from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 127 yuan, a 5 - yuan decrease [8]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of increased supply and decreased demand remains unchanged, and the silicon price may run weakly [8]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production is 31,100 tons, a 1.46% decrease from the previous week. The production in major regions shows different trends, with Inner Mongolia decreasing by 1.83% and Xinjiang increasing by 1.21% [9]. - **Demand Side**: The demand is neutral. The weekly production of silicon wafers remains unchanged, and the factory inventory increased by 3.16% week - on - week [9]. - **Inventory Side**: The factory inventory increased by 3.62% week - on - week, and the registered warehouse receipts increased by 9.41% [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41,443 yuan, a 0.12% decrease from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 9,157 yuan, a 50 - yuan increase [9]. - **Macro Factor**: On October 9th, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a document emphasizing not to bid below cost [9]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: The fundamentals change little, maintaining the pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation". It may fluctuate widely in the short - term and improve in the long - term [9]. 3.3 Part Three: Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production is 21,300 tons, with an overall increase of 1.15% week - on - week. The production from different sources shows different growth rates, with lithium mica extraction increasing by 3.58% and salt lake extraction increasing by 3.63%. The production in September was 87,300 tons, a 2.37% increase from August, and the planned production in October is about 90,000 tons, a 3.09% increase [91]. - **Import Side**: In August, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 19,600 tons, a 10.30% decrease from July. In September, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China decreased by 14.49% month - on - month. In September, the import volume of lithium concentrate was 520,500 tons, a 10.61% increase from August [91]. - **Material Demand**: The demand from iron - lithium and ternary materials is strong. The weekly production of iron - lithium materials increased by 6.83% week - on - week, and the factory inventory increased by 1.49% [91]. - **Terminal Demand**: The demand from new energy vehicles and energy storage is strong. In September, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.617 million, a 16.29% increase from August, and the sales volume was 1.604 million, a 14.96% increase. The domestic energy storage winning bid power/volume in September was 6.45GW/16.34GWh [91]. - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) decreased by 1.73% week - on - week, the lithium salt factory inventory decreased by 1.76%, and the downstream inventory decreased overall. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 5.77% [91]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of external ore - based lithium extraction increased, and the profit decreased. The cost of integrated lithium extraction also increased [91]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: The price is expected to rise in the short - term due to supply - demand mismatch and cost increases, but the long - term supply surplus situation remains [91].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Market focuses on US September CPI data for Fed's interest - rate cut path, with long - term support from central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and weakened dollar credit, but short - term fluctuations due to geopolitical ease and technical selling pressure [3] - Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five - Year Plan" strengthen demand expectations for copper, with a bullish outlook on copper prices [17] - China's core CPI rise in September and expected Fed rate cut are positive for aluminum prices. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, while cast aluminum alloy has strong support [38] - Zinc's supply - demand situation shows domestic stable supply and overseas production cuts, with low inventory supporting prices [61] - Nickel ore regulations in Indonesia are stricter. The new energy sector is in a peak season, nickel - iron prices are weak, and stainless steel may fluctuate widely [76] - Tin supply is weaker than demand, and SHFE tin is expected to remain strong in the short term [90] - Good market demand for lithium carbonate and continuous warehouse destocking are expected to support futures prices [103] - Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly with coming dry seasons, while the polysilicon market is bearish [115] Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Fundamentals**: Market focuses on US September CPI data for Fed's interest - rate cut path. Long - term supports include central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and weakened dollar credit, but short - term fluctuations are caused by geopolitical ease and technical selling pressure. Tensions between Russia and the US add to market uncertainty [3] Copper - **Policy Impact**: Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five - Year Plan" strengthen demand expectations for copper, and policies are bullish on copper prices [17] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of SHFE copper contracts show different daily changes and fluctuations, with the highest daily increase of 1.92% for the main and continuous - one contracts [18] - **Spot Data**: Spot copper prices in different regions have daily increases ranging from 1.09% to 1.17%, and there are changes in spot premiums and discounts [24] Aluminum - **Macro and Fundamentals**: China's core CPI rise in September and expected Fed rate cut are positive for aluminum prices. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy has strong support. Short - term SHFE aluminum may fluctuate at a high level [38] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of SHFE aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy contracts show different daily changes and fluctuations [39] - **Spot Data**: Spot aluminum prices in different regions and relevant premiums and discounts have daily changes, and LME aluminum spot price and premiums also change [49] Zinc - **Supply - Demand and Price**: Domestic zinc supply is stable, overseas production is cut, and low inventory supports prices. The price difference between domestic and overseas markets is large, and short - term attention should be paid to export windows and macro - driving factors [61] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of SHFE and LME zinc contracts show different daily changes and fluctuations [62] - **Spot Data**: SMM zinc average prices increase by 0.41%, and there are changes in LME zinc premiums [69] Nickel - **Industry Conditions**: Indonesia's nickel ore regulations are stricter. The new energy sector is in a peak season, nickel - iron prices are weak, and stainless steel may fluctuate widely. WTO rulings and BIS certifications are positive for stainless steel exports [76] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of SHFE and LME nickel contracts show different changes, along with changes in trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts [77] Tin - **Supply - Demand**: Tin supply is weaker than demand, and SHFE tin is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a predicted support level of 276,000 yuan [90] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of SHFE and LME tin contracts show different daily changes and fluctuations [91] - **Spot Data**: Spot tin prices in different categories have daily increases ranging from 0.35% to 0.83% [93] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Outlook**: Good market demand and continuous warehouse destocking are expected to support futures prices [103] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts show different daily and weekly changes, and there are changes in price spreads between contracts [104] - **Spot Data**: Prices of various lithium products show daily and weekly changes, and there are changes in price spreads between different lithium products [108] Silicon - **Industry Conditions**: Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly with coming dry seasons, while the polysilicon market is bearish [115] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of industrial silicon futures contracts show different daily changes and fluctuations, and there are changes in price spreads between contracts [115] - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of industrial silicon in different regions and grades are stable, with changes in basis and price spreads [115]

Market Performance - The three major indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.3%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.09% [1] - Over 2,700 stocks in the two markets experienced gains, with a total trading volume of 1.228 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The coal sector opened lower and continued to decline, down by 3.51% at midday, with companies like Antai Group and Yunmei Energy hitting the daily limit down [3] - Other sectors such as mining, rental and sales rights, real estate services, local stocks in Shenzhen, and gas also followed with declines exceeding 1% [3] - The storage chip concept saw significant gains, rising by 5.57%, with companies like Shannon Chip and Purun Co. reaching new highs [3] - The commercial aerospace sector experienced a strong surge, with Dahua Intelligent hitting a consecutive limit up, and over ten commercial aerospace concept stocks reaching the daily limit [3] - Computing hardware concept stocks showed volatility but ultimately rose, with Zhongji Xuchuang reaching a new high [3] Commodity and Renewable Energy Updates - The main contract for lithium carbonate on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose over 2.5% during the day, reaching 80,500 yuan per ton, marking a two-month high [3] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, China's annual new installed capacity for wind power is expected to be no less than 120 million kilowatts, with offshore wind power accounting for at least 15 million kilowatts [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the text. Core Views of the Report - The short - term outlook for the stock index is expected to be volatile. As the negative factors of trade frictions gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel. Even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of the stock index is expected to be limited. The strategy is to go long on the stock index when opportunities arise [1]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to be volatile, some are expected to be strong, and some are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term volatility, expected to return to the upward channel later, with limited adjustment space. Strategy: go long when opportunities arise [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Volatile. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: Short - term wide - range volatility. Geopolitical uncertainties and potential Fed rate cuts support the price, but the new round of Sino - US consultations limit the rise [1]. - **Silver**: Volatile in the short - term, and the physical situation in London needs to be monitored [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term price fluctuations are intensified, but with continuous supply disturbances and an increasing Fed rate - cut expectation, it is expected to be strong [1]. - **Alumina**: With production still profitable, domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, and production and inventory are increasing. The spot price is under pressure, and cost support needs attention [1]. - **Zinc**: After a short - term rebound, the export window closes again. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and changes in domestic and foreign inventories need attention [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term volatility is mainly influenced by the macro situation and may be strong, but high inventory still suppresses the price. Suggestion: short - term low - buying within the range, and there is still pressure from long - term excess of primary nickel [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro situation improves, and the trade friction eases. The stainless steel futures may rebound in the short - term. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - **Tin**: Although the short - term impact of the Indonesian ore ban is not significant, the supply risk is high, and there is demand support. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The industrial driving force is unclear, and the futures valuation is low. Directional trading is not recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward potential [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Direct demand is good, but supply is high, and inventory is at a high level. The price is under pressure and volatile [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term production profit is poor, but cost support is strengthening, and direct demand is good. The price is expected to be volatile and the downward space is limited [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Follows the glass market, with a large supply - surplus pressure, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the price rebounded to fill the gap, it reached a relatively high level. It may challenge previous highs, but the breakthrough is difficult. It may be in a wide - range volatile market if there is no new policy on "anti - involution" [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's plan to regulate exports is favorable for the far - month contract. The near - month contract lacks new drivers, and it is advisable to wait for the production area to reduce production and destock [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The pressure from US soybean prices and the support from domestic de - stocking expectations coexist. There is a lack of new drivers, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Canola Oil**: The negotiation on Canadian canola anti - dumping may bring negative news. The domestic canola is in short supply, and the inventory is decreasing. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading, and the inter - month positive spread is expected to rise [1]. - **Cotton**: There is uncertainty in new - year cotton demand. The downside space of the futures is limited, but the basis and the futures may be under pressure due to high production [1]. - **Sugar**: In the short - term, sugar prices are seasonally strong due to typhoon impacts and the gap between old and new crops. In the medium - term, the rebound space is limited after new sugar is listed [1]. - **Corn**: The current stage still focuses on the selling pressure in November. The C01 contract is expected to be in low - level volatility [1]. - **Methanol**: The MO1 contract is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see or go long in the short - term, and pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and South American weather [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The trading logic is related to the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. With weak downstream demand, it is recommended to do a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - **Logs**: The log fundamentals have declined, and the spot price is firm. It is advisable to wait and see after a sharp decline in the futures [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has stabilized, but the futures still have a premium. It is necessary to wait for changes in the slaughter volume and weight, and the short - term trend is volatile [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Influenced by US sanctions on Russia, geopolitical tensions, and the US attitude towards China's tariffs [1]. - **Bitumen**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - **SBS Rubber**: Supported by strong raw material costs, decreasing intermediate inventory, and a positive commodity market atmosphere [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost support is weak, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. Attention should be paid to inventory de - stocking [1]. - **PTA**: The price rebounds slightly due to factors such as a decline in domestic production caused by equipment inspections [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory in East China is low, the cost support is strengthening, and the polyester market has not declined significantly [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory equipment is gradually resuming operation, the basis is strengthening, and the price follows the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window to the US is closed, and domestic styrene plant inspections are increasing [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment eases, and domestic demand is insufficient. There is an upper limit to the price, but there is support from "anti - involution" and cost [1]. - **PE**: The price is volatile and slightly strong due to a slight downward adjustment in the crude oil price center, weakened inspection efforts, and slowly increasing downstream demand [1]. - **PP**: The inspection support is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is large, there are many near - month warehouse receipts, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **LPG**: There are problems such as planned alumina production in Guangxi, decreasing inspection concentration, and difficult digestion of warehouse receipts. The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic fundamentals are also loose [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - The stock market has seen rapid rotation of hot sectors recently, with reduced risk appetite and short - term uncertainty, but the long - term policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, suggesting a long - term strategy of buying on dips [4]. - The bond market may face short - term risk preference decline, which is conducive to its repair. In the fourth quarter, it is necessary to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The overall situation may be volatile, and it may repair if the stock market cools down and the allocation power increases [7]. - For precious metals, the Fed's monetary policy is in the early stage of the easing cycle. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, buying on dips [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, most metal prices are expected to be strong due to factors such as trade negotiation sentiment improvement and supply - side constraints [12][14]. - In the black building materials market, steel prices may be weak in the short term but have long - term upward potential. Iron ore prices will oscillate due to the tug - of - war between weak reality and macro expectations [33][36]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different trends. For example, rubber prices may turn neutral, and crude oil prices are recommended to be observed in the short term [54][56]. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of various products such as hogs, eggs, and grains are affected by supply and demand factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed [79][81]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. There will be economic and trade consultations between China and the US. The R & D of new - generation batteries is being promoted [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term uncertainty exists, but long - term buying on dips is recommended [4]. - **Treasury Bond** - **Market Information**: Bond prices declined on Thursday. There will be China - US economic and trade consultations, and the central government held a symposium on the "15th Five - Year Plan" for central enterprises. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The short - term risk preference decline is beneficial to the bond market repair. The fourth - quarter situation may be volatile, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose. The US will release September CPI data, and it is expected that the data may be lower than expected, which will support precious metal prices [8]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position strategy and buy on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose. LME copper inventory increased, while domestic warehouse receipts decreased. The import of copper spot was at a loss [11]. - **Strategy**: Due to potential supply tightening and improved trade negotiation sentiment, copper prices may remain strong [12]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices continued to rise. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased, and the external LME aluminum inventory also decreased [13]. - **Strategy**: With the easing of trade tensions and low domestic inventory, aluminum prices may rise further [14]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose. Domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and overseas registered zinc warehouse receipts were at a low level [15]. - **Strategy**: The domestic zinc concentrate inventory decreased, and the overseas market had structural risks. Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short term [17]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose. The lead ore port inventory increased, and the lead ingot social inventory decreased [18]. - **Strategy**: With the improvement of downstream demand and the reduction of inventory, lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term [18]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. The cost of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron was weak [19]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops significantly [20][21]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices declined slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand from traditional industries was weak [22]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, tin prices may remain high and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [22]. - **Carbonate Lithium** - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium rose, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy**: The downstream demand is strong, and the price may face pressure from supply recovery and hedging. It is necessary to pay attention to market changes [24]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The price of alumina rose slightly. The overseas price decreased, and the inventory increased [25]. - **Strategy**: The ore price may be under pressure after the rainy season, and the production capacity of alumina is excessive. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel rose. The social inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: The market confidence has recovered, and the subsequent trend depends on the release of downstream demand [28]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy**: The cost supports the price, but the high warehouse receipts limit the upward space [30]. Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fluctuated slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased marginally [32]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, steel prices are weak, but in the long term, they may rise due to the loosening of the macro environment [33]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose. The overseas shipment increased, and the iron water output decreased [34][35]. - **Strategy**: The demand for iron ore is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. The price will oscillate due to the influence of macro expectations [36]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose, and the inventory increased. Soda ash prices rose slightly, and the inventory also increased [37][38]. - **Strategy**: Glass prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and soda ash prices will continue to oscillate weakly [37][38]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose slightly. The spot prices were higher than the futures prices [39]. - **Strategy**: The impact of trade frictions may ease. It is recommended to look for opportunities to rebound in the black sector [42][43]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices also rose. The supply of industrial silicon increased, and the polysilicon supply may decrease in the future [44][47]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices will oscillate, and polysilicon prices will be affected by supply and policy expectations [45][48]. Energy and Chemical - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose due to typhoon and stock market factors. The demand is in a seasonal off - season [50]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions and adopt a neutral strategy [54]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose. The US crude oil inventory decreased, and the SPR inventory increased [55]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support intention [56]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: Methanol prices rose. The port inventory increased slowly, and the domestic start - up rate decreased [57][58]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see due to potential supply disturbances and high port inventory [58]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand also increased [59][60]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities at low prices [60]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices decreased, and styrene prices increased. The supply of pure benzene was abundant, and the demand for styrene increased [61]. - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling in the short term due to inventory reduction and seasonal demand [62]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The production was high, and the demand was weak [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [64][65]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply was high, and the inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation [67]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. The supply increased slightly, and the demand remained stable [68]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see due to weak processing fees and uncertain terminal demand [69]. - **Para - xylene** - **Market Information**: PX prices rose. The load was high, and the downstream demand was weak [70][71]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see as there is no obvious driving force and it mainly follows the crude oil trend [72]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. The inventory decreased, and the demand increased seasonally [73]. - **Strategy**: PE prices may remain low and oscillate due to high - level warehouse receipts and cost factors [74]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: PP prices rose. The supply pressure was high, and the demand rebounded seasonally [75]. - **Strategy**: The overall inventory pressure is high, and the cost supply surplus suppresses the price [76]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs** - **Market Information**: Hog prices fluctuated. The supply and demand were in a stalemate [78]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, hog prices may be strong, but in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies [79]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with slight increases. The supply was normal, and the demand was average [80]. - **Strategy**: The spot price may have limited upward space, and it is recommended to wait and see [81]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: Soybean meal prices rose. The domestic soybean inventory was high, and the import of US soybeans was uncertain [82]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, there is support, but in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies due to the expected abundant supply [84]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: Oil prices fell. The palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia was high, and the supply pressure was large [85]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for a clearer production signal [86]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded. The production in Brazil is expected to increase, and the prices of domestic processing factories decreased [87]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter as the overall supply is expected to increase [89]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rebounded. The new cotton purchase price increased, but the demand was weak [90]. - **Strategy**: The upward space of cotton prices is limited due to weak fundamentals [91].