Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. It assesses the market trends, fundamental data, and news events of each commodity, and gives corresponding trend intensities and trading suggestions [2]. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to reach new highs. The Comex gold 2602 contract rose 2.11% to 4938.40. The trend intensity is 1 [6]. - **Silver**: Aiming to reach 100. The Comex silver 2602 contract rose 3.51% to 96.215. The trend intensity is 1 [6]. - **Platinum**: Expected to oscillate upwards. The trend intensity is 0 [31]. - **Palladium**: Slowly rising. The trend intensity is 0 [31]. Base Metals - **Copper**: With the dollar falling, the price is expected to be strong. The沪铜主力合约 rose 0.71% to 102,600. The trend intensity is 1 [13]. - **Zinc**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The沪锌主力收盘价 rose 0.91% to 24950. The trend intensity is 0 [16]. - **Lead**: With the decrease in LME inventory, the price is supported. The沪铅主力收盘价 fell 0.41% to 17000. The trend intensity is 0 [19]. - **Tin**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The沪锡主力合约 rose 6.07% to 451,160. The trend intensity is 0 [23]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to run strongly. The沪铝主力合约收盘价 rose 90 to 24305. The trend intensity is 1 [26]. - **Nickel**: The situation in Indonesia is undetermined, with a game between hedging and speculative positions. The沪镍主力收盘价 rose 730 to 146,110. The trend intensity is 0 [35]. - **Stainless Steel**: Concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia have intensified, and the rise in nickel iron prices supports the center of gravity. The不锈钢主力收盘价 fell 105 to 14,540. The trend intensity is 0 [35]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Not specifically mentioned in the report. - **Natural Gas**: Not specifically mentioned in the report. - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: Expected to oscillate within a range, with industry and capital cooperation. The JM2605 contract fell 3.7% to 1116.5. The trend intensity is 0 [58]. - **Coke**: Expected to oscillate within a range, with industry and capital cooperation. The J2605 contract fell 3.0% to 1668. The trend intensity is 0 [58]. - **Steam Coal**: Supply and demand are expected to weaken, and coal prices are expected to stabilize and rise slightly. The产地 price of Datong南郊动力 coal Q5500 rose 2 to 564.0. The trend intensity is not provided [62]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: With the weak dollar and rising US soybean prices, the Dalian soybean meal may rebound and oscillate. The DCE豆粕2605 contract rose 0.14% to 2770. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - **Soybean**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is expected to rebound and oscillate. The DCE豆一2605 contract fell 0.71% to 4364. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - **Corn**: Expected to oscillate strongly. The C2605 contract fell 0.44% to 2,282. The trend intensity is 1 [162]. - **Sugar**: Expected to trade in a narrow range. The futures主力价格 fell 4 to 5168. The trend intensity is 0 [165]. - **Cotton**: Expected to maintain a strong oscillation. The CF2605 contract fell 0.58% to 14,565. The trend intensity is 1 [170]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is expected to be strong during the pre - holiday peak season. The鸡蛋2602 contract fell 0.49% to 3,050. The trend intensity is 0 [177]. - **Hogs**: The demand performance is lower than expected, and attention should be paid to supply contradictions. The生猪2603 contract fell 1.57% to 11285. The trend intensity is - 1 [180]. - **Peanuts**: Expected to oscillate. The PK603 contract rose 0.60% to 8,062. The trend intensity is 0 [183]. Chemicals - **PTA**: The unilateral trend is expected to be strong. The PTA主力合约 fell 3.31% to 5258. The trend intensity is 1 [67]. - **MEG**: The trend is still expected to be strong. The MEG主力合约 fell 1.40% to 3938. The trend intensity is 1 [67]. - **Rubber**: Expected to oscillate. The trend intensity is 0 [72]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fall from a high level. The顺丁橡胶主力日盘收盘价 fell 220 to 13,045. The trend intensity is 0 [75]. - **LLDPE**: The US dollar offer is temporarily scarce, and the upstream quotation is firm. The L2605 contract fell 0.52% to 6899. The trend intensity is - 1 [78]. - **PP**: The C3 raw material is strong, but the profit repair is limited. The PP2605 contract fell 0.42% to 6709. The trend intensity is - 1 [81]. - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to oscillate at a low level. The 03合约期货价格 is 1951. The trend intensity is 0 [84]. - **Paper Pulp**: Expected to oscillate. The纸浆主力日盘收盘价 fell 32 to 5.342. The trend intensity is 0 [91]. - **Glass**: The original sheet price is stable. The FG605 contract fell 0.93% to 1066. The trend intensity is - 1 [95]. - **Methanol**: Expected to oscillate with support. The甲醇主力收盘价 fell 43 to 2,304. The trend intensity is 1 [98]. - **Urea**: Expected to oscillate with support. The尿素主力收盘价 fell 1 to 1,790. The trend intensity is 0 [103]. - **Styrene**: Expected to oscillate strongly. The苯乙烯2603 contract fell 53 to 7,649. The trend intensity is 0 [106]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The SA2605 contract fell 0.25% to 1,194. The trend intensity is - 1 [110]. - **LPG**: The short - term geopolitical disturbance is strong. The PG2602 contract fell 1.67% to 4,291. The trend intensity is 0 [113]. - **Propylene**: The demand support is strong, and the spot price is rising strongly. The PL2603 contract fell 1.14% to 6,248. The trend intensity is 1 [113]. - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate within a range. The 05合约期货价格 is 4911. The trend intensity is - 1 [121]. - **Fuel Oil**: The night session oscillates, and the high - volatility trend continues. The FU2602 contract fell 2.67% to 2,702. The trend intensity is 0 [124]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Narrowly adjusted, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market rebounded slightly. The LU2602 contract rose 7.00% to 3,349. The trend intensity is 0 [124]. Others - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: Expected to be in an oscillating market, and beware of repeated geopolitical speculation. The EC2604 contract fell 0.11% to 1,193.9. The trend intensity is 0 [126]. - **Short - Fiber**: Expected to have a short - term correction and oscillate at a high level. The短纤2603 contract fell 164 to 6662. The trend intensity is 0 [142]. - **Bottle Chip**: Expected to have a short - term correction and oscillate at a high level. The瓶片2603 contract fell 174 to 6262. The trend intensity is 0 [142]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Suggested to sell on rallies and conduct a 3 - 4 reverse spread. The OP2603.SHF contract rose 4 to 4148. The trend intensity is 0 [145]. - **Pure Benzene**: Expected to oscillate strongly. The BZ2603 contract fell 88 to 5990. The trend intensity is 0 [149]. - **Palm Oil**: The high - level volatility intensifies, and attention should be paid to the previous high pressure. The棕榈油主力收盘价 rose 1.61% to 9,238. The trend intensity is 0 [154]. - **Soybean Oil**: The trading idea of the oil - meal ratio is maintained. The豆油主力收盘价 rose 0.39% to 8,258. The trend intensity is 0 [154].

【冠通期货研究报告】 沪铜日报：情绪降温，铜价偏弱 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 27 日 【行情分析】 沪铜高开低走，日内收跌。供给方面，在本周四，卡普斯通铜业公司称，因最大工 会与公司未达成集体谈判协议引发罢工，致其位于智利的曼托韦德铜矿停产，该矿预计 2025 年阴极铜产量为 2.9 万至 3.2 万吨。TC/RC 费用保持弱稳，且出现进一步下探的趋 势，市场对供应端紧张的态度未曾改变。SMM 根据各家排产情况，预计 1 月国内电解铜 产量环比下降 1.45 万吨降幅为 1.23%，同比增加 15.63 万吨升幅为 14.78%。需求方面， 截至 2025 年 12 月，铜表观消费量为 131.88 万吨，环比上月增长 4.00%。临近春节叠加 铜价高企，大多中小企业开启放假，对原料端的采购意愿低迷，终端新能源汽车表现不 佳，其他传统行业冰箱及空调等有出现小幅的上涨。美国对铜关税征收的预期减弱后， C-L 价差收敛，美国铜库存或有外溢，非美库存有增加，若持续价差收敛，全球由铜关 税引起的库存结构失衡将缓解，整体供应端或边际转好，故铜盘面我们预计短期高位震 荡为主，下半年随着矿端复产，一旦供应宽松显现， ...

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.71% as of the close on January 27 [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 28949.81 billion yuan, a decrease of about 3532.21 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Shanxi sector performed weakly, with an overall decline of 1.77% and a trading volume of 146.15 billion yuan, down approximately 35.95 billion yuan from the previous day's volume of 182.10 billion yuan, indicating cautious market sentiment and lack of capital support [1] Group 2 - Among the 41 stocks in the Shanxi sector, only 3 stocks rose while 37 stocks fell, and 1 stock remained flat [1] - Dongjie Intelligent was the leading gainer with a final increase of 9.90%, while Lionhead Co. and Cross-Border Communication rose by 0.98% and 0.72%, respectively [1] - The leading decliner was Blue Flame Holdings, which fell by 6.21%, followed by Northern Copper with a decline of 5.24%, and several other stocks experiencing declines of over 4% [1]

港股三大指数集体收涨，恒生科技指数一度冲高至1.6%，最终收涨1.35%重新站上27000点，国企指数 涨1.07%，恒生科技指数涨0.5%。具体盘面上，权重科技股走势继续分化，阿里巴巴涨近3%，腾讯、小 米、快手飘红，京东跌超2%，美团、百度小幅下跌；保险股、银行股拉升走强助力大市回暖，其中中 国人寿涨近9%，工商银行、农业银行、建设银行皆有涨幅，汇丰控股、中烟香港再创历史新高；黄金 股部分继续上涨，紫金矿业、紫金黄金国际均大涨再创历史新高；重型机械股继续活跃，中国重汽、三 一国际齐创新高；光伏股、苹果概念股、港口及海运股、AI应用概念股普遍上涨。另一方面，钢铁 股、铜业股、煤炭股全天疲弱，其中，中国罕王大跌近11%，汽车股、家电股、水务股多数下跌。(格 隆汇) ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are experiencing high volatility, with domestic copper fluctuating between 99,000-105,600 CNY/ton and LME copper between 12,500-13,500 USD/ton, indicating a lack of upward momentum at these absolute highs [3][15]. Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment is generally favorable, influenced by geopolitical tensions, including U.S. actions in Venezuela and rising tensions with Iran, which have boosted safe-haven assets like gold and silver, positively impacting non-ferrous metals [4][16]. - The U.S. government's emphasis on its dominance in the Western Hemisphere highlights the strategic value of key mineral resources, particularly copper from major producing countries like Chile and Peru [4][16]. - The weakening of the U.S. dollar and the potential appointment of Rick Riedel as the new Federal Reserve Chair are contributing to a bullish sentiment for precious metals and copper [4][16]. Copper Supply Constraints - Copper supply remains tight, posing a significant constraint in the medium to long term. Negotiations for processing fees for 2026 are ongoing, with Chinese smelters agreeing to a benchmark of 0 USD/ton for copper concentrate [5][17]. - The SMM imported copper concentrate TC index has dropped to -49.79 USD/dry ton, indicating a tightening supply situation [5][17]. - Global copper mine production in November 2025 was reported at 1.923 million tons, a slight decrease from October, with a year-on-year decline of 2.2% [5][17][18]. Refined Copper Production - Global refined copper production in November 2025 was 2.371 million tons, down 3,000 tons from October, with a cumulative increase of 4.2% year-on-year [6][19]. - China's refined copper production for December 2025 was 1.326 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [6][19]. Current Market Conditions - The domestic refined copper inventory has been accumulating, with SMM social inventory rising from approximately 160,000 tons to 330,000 tons [7][20]. - The current state of the market shows a slight backwardation, with the spot price of copper experiencing a small discount due to high prices and subdued demand [7][20]. - The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to dampen demand, with a potential slowdown in recovery post-holiday [9][21]. Overall Market Outlook - The weakening dollar and geopolitical tensions are providing support for precious metals and non-ferrous metals, although copper prices are experiencing limited upward movement due to high levels and market sentiment [10][22]. - Supply-side constraints persist, with low processing fees and high refined copper production levels, while domestic inventories are accumulating [10][22]. - Overall, while short-term copper prices may be prone to increases, market sentiment can shift rapidly at these elevated levels, necessitating careful position management [10][22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that copper prices are supported by a decline in the US dollar and supply disruptions, with recent price increases leading to decreased purchasing willingness among downstream consumers [1][3] - The latest closing price for London copper is reported at $13,183 per ton, an increase of $54 or 0.42%, while the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 103,460 yuan per ton, up 700 yuan or 0.68% [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventory has decreased to 170,525 tons, down 1,175 tons or 0.68% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has announced adjustments to trading rules for copper futures, effective January 28, 2026, including an increase in the price fluctuation limit to 9% and higher margin requirements [2] - The adjustments aim to reduce leverage trading risks and avoid frequent trading halts due to price limits, thereby improving market liquidity [2] Group 3 - Supply concerns are heightened due to ongoing disruptions at the Capstone Copper's Mantoverde mine in Chile, while domestic copper concentrate processing fees continue to decline, indicating a persistent tight supply situation [3] - Domestic smelting capacity has expanded, achieving a record high production last year, but rising inventories in both London and Shanghai are suppressing upward price movement [3] - The increase in copper prices has led to a decline in purchasing willingness among consumers, with expectations of further widening of spot discounts due to weak demand and rising inventories [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Precious Metals Market**: The precious metals market is currently driven by central bank gold purchases, indicating a long-term cycle independent of general commodity trends. The valuation of precious metals is undergoing a comprehensive recovery, with gold expected to experience upward fluctuations over the next 3-5 years, supported by central bank buying during corrections of around 5% [2][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Gold Valuation**: The current valuation of gold is recovering, with the market shifting from a short-term cycle to a long-term cycle driven by central bank actions. The valuation is expected to continue improving, with significant support from central bank purchases [2][4]. - **Aluminum Market**: Aluminum prices have room for growth, benefiting from stable global manufacturing PMI and increasing photovoltaic demand, with an expected annual growth rate of 3-5%. The copper-aluminum price ratio is expected to stabilize, with conservative estimates suggesting aluminum prices could reach 30,000 RMB [1][9][12]. - **Supply Constraints**: Global electricity shortages are limiting aluminum supply, particularly in North America, which may face an energy crisis. China's dual carbon policy restricts high-energy aluminum production, further supporting future price increases [10][11][12]. - **Copper Market**: The copper market is benefiting from AI and energy transition trends, with long-term demand growth anticipated. The geopolitical tensions are increasing resource competition, making copper prices more resilient [16][17]. - **Lithium Market**: The lithium carbonate market is entering a price increase cycle due to supply constraints from production halts in Yichun and limited overseas resources. Prices are expected to rise to 150,000 to 200,000 RMB [3][19][20]. Additional Important Insights - **Aluminum Sector**: The aluminum sector is characterized by high dividends and valuation recovery potential. Companies like Tianshan Aluminum and China Hongqiao are seen as undervalued, while companies like Shenhuo and Yun Aluminum have significant profit elasticity [1][14][15]. - **Stock Valuation**: The stock market for precious metals has only partially recovered, with current near-term valuations around 20 times earnings and long-term around 15 times, compared to a historical average of 25 times [4][5]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The focus is shifting towards companies with significant mineral reserves, such as Shandong Gold and Zhaojin Mining, as the market increasingly values long-term reserves over short-term production [5][30]. - **Tin Market**: The tin market is experiencing strong demand, particularly from the semiconductor industry, with supply constraints expected to keep prices elevated. Companies like Tin Industry Co. and Huaxi Nonferrous are highlighted for their potential [24][30]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the metals market is optimistic, with various sectors showing potential for growth driven by supply constraints, changing demand dynamics, and supportive government policies. Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with strong fundamentals and significant reserves to capitalize on these trends.

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 26 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 期市综述 截止 1 月 26 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨多跌少，沪银涨近 13% ...

沪铜早间高开，日内涨幅略有回落，收盘上涨1.26%。早间沪铜走势受贵金属大涨带动，但最近全球铜 显现库存有所增加，高价对铜需求的抑制仍然存在，铜价涨势受限。 最近LME铜库存整体延续回升姿态，目前升至17万吨之上，为去年5月下旬以来最高。国内精铜社会库 存上周四一度停止累积，但高价对下游需求的抑制仍然存在。 对于铜价走势，光大期货表示，近期高铜价影响下，铜消费转弱，累库力度强于近两年，这加大了产业 内的分歧，也一度使得铜存在调整预期，但从周五表现来看，无论是贵金属看涨情绪外溢效应还是从资 金对有色追捧力度，仍维系着铜价易涨难跌的行情。因此当前铜价逻辑已不能简单从基本面来去定价， 更多的需求金融属性的角度去看，整体仍以震荡偏多行情看待。 （文华综合） 截至上周国内铜精矿加工费弱势运行，且最近海外铜矿传来一些干扰消息，铜市矿紧局面仍在延续。国 内冶炼产能继续扩张，去年全年产量再创新高，后续仍需关注矿紧对冶炼端的影响。 ...

每经AI快讯，1月26日，铜陵有色（000630）(000630.SZ)公告称，公司股票连续2个交易日收盘价格涨 幅偏离值累计达到20.72%，属于股票交易异常波动。公司目前生产经营情况正常，公司内部经营环境 未发生重大变化。近期，公司主产品中阴极铜、黄金、白银等产品的市场价格累计涨幅较大，铜精矿加 工费低位运行。截至本公告披露日，米拉多铜矿二期工程正式投产的时间尚不确定，预计将对公司2026 年的经营业绩产生一定影响。 ...