在创纪录的飙升和急剧下跌之后，由于交易者考虑芝加哥商品交易所的保证金增加和行业需求，白银价 格反弹。特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克警告称，飞涨的价格可能会影响特斯拉（TSLA）的车辆制造，而芝加 哥商品交易所集团（CME）提高了期货保证金。 在创纪录的飙升和急剧下跌之后，由于交易者考虑芝加哥商品交易所的保证金增加和行业需求，白银价 格反弹。特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克警告称，飞涨的价格可能会影响特斯拉（TSLA）的车辆制造，而芝加 哥商品交易所集团（CME）提高了期货保证金。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 ...

记者丨刘雪莹 朱芷葵 编辑丨吴桂兴 北京时间12月30日晚，美股三大指数小幅低开，冲高后转跌 ，中概股普涨 。昨日跳水的贵金 属集体反弹。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 48401.99 | 23469.69 | 6904.70 | | -59.94 -0.12% | -4.66 -0.02% | -1.04 -0.02% | | 中国金龙 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 7691.26 | 25737.75 | 6955.75 | | +54.29 +0.71% | | -2.00 -0.01% +0.75 +0.01% | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数一度涨超1%。其中蔚来涨近7%，小鹏涨超5%；百度涨近6%，其港股 今日收涨近9%。消息面上，据财联社报道，美国网约车平台Uber和Lyft宣布，已与百度达成 合作，计划于2026年在英国推出无人驾驶出租车(Robotaxi)试点项目。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 劇来 | 5.710 | 6.93% | | 百度集团 | 134.130 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a continuous pre-holiday rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving ten consecutive gains, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index both rose over 0.5% during the session [1][13] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][13] A-share Outlook - Several favorable factors are expected to support the performance of A-shares in the coming year, including a marginal improvement in manufacturing driven by "anti-involution," global liquidity easing, and a low interest rate environment encouraging institutional and individual investors to enter the market [1][13] - Investors are advised to focus on broad-based products like the CSI A500 ETF (159338) that bundle leading companies across various industries, and consider a "barbell" strategy combining technology and dividends as a satellite strategy [1][13] Gold and Precious Metals - The gold ETF (518800) fell by 2.05% due to overnight market fluctuations, although long-term support for gold prices remains strong from factors such as interest rate cuts, de-dollarization, and geopolitical tensions [3][16] - Recent volatility in precious metal prices was influenced by a significant rise in silver prices, which briefly surpassed $84 per ounce, marking a nearly 10% increase from the previous week's closing price [3][16] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised silver futures margins by 25% to address recent volatility, potentially forcing leveraged traders to partially liquidate positions [4][17] Robotics Sector - The robotics sector saw a notable increase, with the Robotics Industry ETF (159551) rising by 3.20% and the Industrial Mother Machine ETF (159667) increasing by 2.23% [6][18] - The growth in this sector is attributed to robotics being the ultimate carrier of AI, with expectations of significant developments in the U.S.-China competition landscape [6][19] - Tesla's upcoming V3 version is anticipated to evolve towards lightweight, compact, and highly integrated designs, with mass production expected to commence in Q1 next year [6][19] Chemical Industry - The chemical sector performed well, with the Chemical Leaders ETF (516220) rising by 1.79% [7][22] - PX prices have been increasing due to tight supply driven by rising demand for upstream toluene/xylene and the impact of downstream polyester filament and BOPET [8][22] - The polyester industry chain shows strong potential for "anti-involution," supported by nearing capacity limits, sustained demand growth, and high market share among leading companies [9][23]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in precious metals prices, particularly gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, indicates a potential turning point in the market, with significant fluctuations observed after a period of rapid price increases [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices have seen a cumulative increase of approximately 65% this year, while silver and platinum have surged over 150% and 70% respectively [2]. - Silver futures prices skyrocketed from around $50 per ounce to above $80 per ounce, marking a record monthly increase [1]. - Platinum prices rose from over $1,640 per ounce to nearly $2,450 per ounce within three weeks, achieving a nearly 50% increase [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent price drop in precious metals is attributed to profit-taking after previous gains, reduced geopolitical risks, and increased margin requirements by major exchanges [2][5]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have raised margin requirements, contributing to the market's volatility [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The performance of the gold market in 2026 will depend on various interacting factors, with expectations of moderate price increases or stability in most scenarios [3]. - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the coming year, reflecting a long-term strategy for reserve diversification [3]. Group 4: Demand Factors - Silver's industrial demand is expected to rise significantly due to its applications in solar energy, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence [4]. - Platinum is transitioning from traditional uses to becoming a key metal in energy transformation, indicating a shift in demand dynamics [4]. Group 5: Investment Considerations - The changing role of gold as a hard currency is being recognized by investors, especially in light of rising U.S. debt and concerns over fiscal sustainability [5]. - Market sentiment and investor emotions are increasingly influencing precious metals prices, suggesting that the market is becoming more of a "funding market" [6].

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - The bond market shows a slight increase in long-term interest rates, but the overall weakness remains unchanged. The possibility of a significant decline in the bond market is increasing, and short positions can be re-established under risk control [4][17]. - The A-share market is experiencing a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing signs of strength in previously underperforming sectors such as technology and entrepreneurship. The report anticipates a broad market rally as the year-end approaches, with technology expected to yield excess returns [5][20]. - The US stock market is experiencing light trading post-Christmas, with major indices showing volatility. The report notes a shift in momentum for previously weak stocks like Oracle and Nvidia, indicating a potential upward trend in risk assets [6][26]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - In the A-share market, sectors such as robotics and chemicals are gaining momentum, while traditional sectors like insurance and banking are expected to stabilize and continue their upward trend. The consumer sector is anticipated to become a new target for recovery as policy support deepens [5][20]. - The commodity market is showing an upward trend, with the Wenhua Commodity Index rising by 0.65%. The report maintains that the upward momentum for precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and new energy sectors remains intact, although high volatility may affect short-term trading strategies [7][31]. - The foreign exchange market indicates a significant appreciation of the RMB against the USD, with the onshore RMB reported at 6.9912. This aligns with expectations of a controlled appreciation trend under central bank guidance [6][29]. Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Developments - Domestic policies include a new tax regulation on personal housing sales, where properties sold within two years will incur a 3% tax, while those sold after two years will be exempt. This policy is set to take effect on January 1, 2026 [9][37]. - The government has announced the early issuance of 625 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support consumer goods replacement programs, indicating a proactive approach to stimulate consumption [9][37]. - The automotive industry is set to benefit from a push for the large-scale application of intelligent robotics in manufacturing processes, which is expected to enhance productivity and innovation within the sector [9][38].

Market Overview - The stock market struggled to gain momentum in the last trading days of the year, with the Dow futures down 0.06%, S&P 500 futures down 0.07%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.10% [1][16] - The European Stoxx 600 index rose 16% this year, reaching historical highs, with the banking sector leading gains, up 65%, potentially marking the largest annual increase since 1997 [17] Global Market Sentiment - Despite recent lackluster performance, global stock markets are expected to achieve their third consecutive annual increase, with the MSCI global stock index up approximately 21% for 2025 [3][19] - Historical data shows that the index has averaged a 1.4% increase in January over the past ten years, with six instances of growth [3][19] Currency and Economic Indicators - The US dollar is on track for its worst annual performance since 2017, with a decline of nearly 10% and a projected drop of 9.6% for the year [4][20] - The dollar index recently stood at 98.03, close to a three-month low, influenced by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and concerns over fiscal deficits [4][20] Economic Projections - Goldman Sachs forecasts strong economic growth resilience in the US for 2025, with expectations for faster growth in 2026 due to tax cuts and favorable financial conditions [7][22] - Despite recent stagnation in the non-farm employment market, factors such as AI data center construction and significant tax refunds are expected to boost economic momentum [23] Company-Specific Movements - Mining stocks saw pre-market gains, with Harmony Gold up 3.76%, Pan American Silver up 3.02%, and several others also showing significant increases [23] - Tesla's stock rose over 1% in pre-market trading amid expectations for the upcoming release of its Optimus project [24] - Applied Digital surged over 30% in pre-market trading due to plans to spin off its cloud business and merge with EKSO [25] - Chinese concept stocks also saw pre-market increases, with Baidu up over 5% and Vipshop up over 2% [27]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·有色金属 有色金属行业跟踪周报 市场缺乏进一步指引，贵金属动量趋势强劲 价格再创新高 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 回顾本周行情（12 月 22 日-12 月 26 日），有色板块本周上涨 6.43%，在全部一级 行业中排名靠前。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中工业金属板块上 涨 7.07%，能源金属板块上涨 6.66%，小金属板块上涨 6.16%，金属新材料板块上 涨 4.93%，贵金属板块上涨 4.06%。工业金属方面，本周海外受到圣诞假期影响流 动性低迷，数据层面好坏参半，市场缺乏进一步有效指引，本周市场交易更多跟随 惯性动量，受美元继续下行支撑，本周工业金属价格维持上行驱动。贵金属方面， 本周贵金属价格维持上行驱动。基于上述流动性低迷的现状，以及 LME 白银租赁 利率的持续高企，沪银同时出现了期现溢价以及内外盘溢价，投资者需警惕随着海 外流动性回归，以及 26 年 1 月 8 日至 1 月 15 日彭博 BCOM 商品指数调仓引发的 潜在回调风险。 ◼ 周观点： 铜：TC 价格落地沪铜维持惯性上涨突破 10 ...

进入2025年最后一个交易周，全球金融市场呈现出复杂图景：此前高歌猛进的黄金、白银价格从纪录高 点显著回落，而全球股市则在创下历史新高后普遍进入平静的"假日模式"。投资者在年底前选择获利了 结、谨慎观望，市场正等待新的方向指引。 金银"过山车"：狂欢后的理性回调 过去一年，贵金属市场无疑是耀眼的明星。黄金价格一度触及每盎司4550美元的历史新高，白银更是飙 升约150%，年内高点达到84美元。推动这轮暴涨的主要动力，是市场对美联储降息、美元走弱以及地 缘政治风险的强烈预期。 然而，任何过热的市场都需要"冷静期"。本周二，黄金回落至4360美元附近，白银也跌至74.50美元左 右。这被市场普遍解读为健康的"获利了结"，即投资者在价格高位卖出以实现利润。有分析师形象地比 喻："市场只是过热后'绊倒了自己的鞋带'，价格又回到了几天前的水平。这次回调反而洗去了过度投 机的泡沫，让后市走势更健康。" 全球股市"歇脚"：在历史高位旁徘徊 与贵金属的剧烈波动相比，全球股市在年终表现得相对"淡定"。尽管2025年全球多个市场成绩斐然，例 如韩国首尔综指年内涨幅超过75%，日本日经225指数涨幅也超过26%，但在最后一个交易日 ...

2025年最后一天，新机会出现了 A股最热门两个题材，目前似乎都在逐步的退潮，一个是白银为代表的贵金属和有色金属，昨天遭遇了黑色星期一，还有一个就是商业航天，早上还走得好 好的龙头股某某卫星继续冲击涨停，结果到了11点之后就开启了一路向下的态势，14点时从接近涨停板到了下跌3.5%，全天留下了比较长的上影线。 如果再向前追寻的话，就是大科技当中的CPO和芯片了，过去的两天芯片也确实走得相当不错，但整体上给人感觉脉冲的迹象比较明显，不过从这轮大科技 的主线逻辑看，我觉得主要还是CPO，毕竟业绩或者订单比较确定，但是从龙头股今天早上的表现看，出现了冲高回落，非常的不尽人意。 之所以讨论这些，给我的感觉是，市场这些不好的信号越来越明显了，短期热点有点枯竭的意思，接下来如果市场没有明确的热点，靠什么向上呢，这是我 们必须要面对的问题。 当然，还有一点，今天大家可能比较喜欢说上证指数10连阳了，但是各位可能忽视了一点，今天这根阳线跟过去的9根阳线相比都比较弱，为啥呢？因为今 天盘中的高点没有突破昨天的高点，之前说过，如果一个市场有持续的上涨能力的话，无论当日涨跌如何，但几乎每天都会创新高的，如果指数没有创新高 的能力， ...

Group 1 - The precious metals market has regained investor attention, with gold and silver reaching historical highs on December 24, 2023, with gold surpassing $4500 per ounce and silver peaking at $72.7 per ounce, reflecting year-to-date increases of over 70% and nearly 150% respectively, significantly outperforming most global asset classes [1] - The primary catalyst for the surge in precious metal prices is the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by rising unemployment and lower-than-expected core CPI, which has strengthened the outlook for policy easing and weakened the dollar, thereby reducing the opportunity cost of holding precious metals [1] - Ongoing geopolitical risks have accelerated capital inflows into the precious metals market as a safe haven, while structural market dynamics due to imbalances in industrial supply and demand, particularly from the expansion of photovoltaic installations and surging AI server demand, have provided strong support for silver prices [1] Group 2 - In 2025, the precious metals market is expected to experience a further acceleration in capital allocation due to heightened risk aversion, with overall price trends showing a pattern of fluctuating increases [2] - Short-term risks include potential profit-taking by investors and the possibility of monetary policy easing falling short of expectations, which could exert downward pressure on prices [2] - Long-term prospects remain positive for precious metals, supported by the onset of global monetary easing, continued central bank gold purchases, and the deepening process of de-dollarization, alongside persistent geopolitical risks [2]