1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market rose 2.08% last week, with precious metals leading the increase at 9.08%, non - ferrous metals and energy - chemicals rising 2.96% and 1.95% respectively, while agricultural products and black metals slightly declined by 0.04% and 0.53% [2][7]. - The US PCE data rebounded slightly, cooling the interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar index significantly corrected last week, and the easing of the Greenland conflict boosted market risk appetite. The uncertainty brought by the Iranian situation is beneficial to precious metals and energy - chemicals, and the short - term commodity market may fluctuate strongly [2]. - In the short term, precious metals will continue to fluctuate upward, but need to beware of post - overbought corrections; non - ferrous metals may fluctuate strongly; black metals may fluctuate; energy prices may rebound but with limited space; the chemical industry may fluctuate strongly; and agricultural products may also fluctuate strongly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Overall Market**: The commodity market rose 2.08% last week. Precious metals led the gain at 9.08%, non - ferrous metals and energy - chemicals rose 2.96% and 1.95% respectively, while agricultural products and black metals slightly declined by 0.04% and 0.53% [2][7]. - **Individual Varieties**: The top - rising varieties were silver, PTA, and gold, with increases of 11.04%, 8.57%, and 7.74% respectively; the top - falling varieties were glass, live pigs, and iron ore, with decreases of 3.54%, 3.46%, and 2.09% respectively [2][7]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with styrene, live pigs, and gold having relatively large fluctuations [2][7]. - **Funds**: The overall market scale increased last week, with only the black metal sector experiencing capital outflows. Gold and silver received capital inflows of 24.4 billion and 12.7 billion respectively [2][7]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: The US dollar index dropped significantly, and geopolitical disturbances increased market risk - aversion sentiment. The sector continued to fluctuate upward. The low inventory of silver also promoted the silver price. In the short term, the upward trend of the sector is hard to reverse, but post - overbought corrections should be watched out for [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The US dollar index was weak, risk - aversion sentiment was high, and domestic policies aimed to expand domestic demand. The supply - side contraction risk supported prices, and the sector may fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand for rebar slightly declined, production increased, and inventory accumulated again. Steel mill profits were poor, and the resumption of production was affected. Iron ore port inventory increased significantly, and the structural contradiction needed to be resolved. The sector may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - **Energy**: The US Treasury's new sanctions on Iran and the production suspension of two major oil fields in Kazakhstan due to force majeure, along with the cold wave in the US, led to a rise in natural gas prices and increased demand for heating oil. Oil prices may rebound, but the rebound space is limited due to the inventory - accumulation pressure in Q1 [3]. - **Chemical Industry**: For polyester products, terminal demand declined, and there was an inventory - accumulation expectation around the Spring Festival, but supply - contraction expectations and positive market sentiment may lead to short - term strong fluctuations. For building materials, PVC may see capacity reduction and possible export - grabbing, with an expected upward shift in the center of gravity; glass may see seasonal inventory accumulation but may follow macro - sentiment fluctuations [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The expectation of a South American bumper harvest is the main trading logic, but the slow progress of the new - season Brazilian soybean harvest may increase the pressure on US soybeans and soybean meal. The improvement of China - Canada relations may impact domestic soybean - meal prices. The supply - demand structure of Malaysian palm oil has improved, and the overall oilseeds and oils may fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around 7.5%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 29.5871 billion yuan, with a 4.42% increase, and the total trading volume increased by 82.85% [36]. - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a 3.48% return, the soybean - meal ETF had a 0.92% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a - 0.52% return, and the silver fund had a 6.72% return [36][38]. The total scale of commodity ETFs was 31.8614 billion yuan, with a 3.99% increase, and the total trading volume increased by 49.13% [36].

截至26日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1772.23点，较前一交易日上涨62.85点，涨幅3.68%；中证商品期货指数收报2443.85点，较前一交易日上涨 86.67点，涨幅3.68%。 贵金属继续飙升双轮驱动油气强势走高 1月26日商品市场的热点仍在持续火热的贵金属市场以及近期快速反弹的能化板块。截至收盘，除沪银飙升近13%领涨商品市场以外，铂、钯分别跟涨超 9%、8%，金价涨幅虽不足4%，但仍历史性首次触及1150元／克上方。近期除了地缘局势继续给贵金属带来避险买盘以外，美国总统特朗普周末对加拿大的 关税威胁，进一步强化了市场"卖出美国"的交易倾向，加上美日联手干预日元贬值令美元兑日元汇率单日大跌，也加剧了美元的跌势。此外，市场对美联储 潜在新任主席人选的鸽派政策倾向或加速美联储宽松的押注，亦构成了强化贵金属看涨热情的重要利多。因此，环顾整个市场，对于贵金属而言，除了过于 一致的看涨预期可能成为潜在风险以外，市场暂时没有看到真正构成遏制贵金属多头热情的实际因素。在此背景下，即便机构多将短线获利回吐视为贵金属 价格波动的诱因，但仍维持对贵金属多头配置的策略建议。 贵金属市场火热也带动资金开始向估值洼 ...

以下文章来源于东针商略 ，作者东针商略 东针商略 . 聚焦科技趋势，分享商业新知，关注世界变化，一起思考有价值的内容，在沸腾的时代里，并肩成长。 本文来自微信公众号： 东针商略 ，作者：东针商略，题图来自：视觉中国 白银价格历史上首次突破每盎司100美元大关，年内涨幅超过44%，创下历史新高。这一剧烈波动背 后，是白银市场连续多年且持续扩大的供需缺口，标志着白银正从传统的金融附属品转向由实体产业 主导的关键战略资源。 根据世界白银协会数据，全球白银市场自2021年以来已陷入持续的结构性赤字。2025年供需缺口接 近3亿盎司，创下历史最高纪录，而2026年这一缺口预计将进一步扩大。 推动需求爆发的核心力量来自工业领域，尤其是光伏、电动汽车与AI基础设施的快速增长。目前工 业用银已占白银总需求的60%以上，其中光伏产业的需求在过去五年增长超过1.6倍，白银因其不可 替代的导电与稳定性，成为绿色能源转型中难以绕过的关键材料。 然而，与需求端的强劲增长形成尖锐矛盾的是，白银的供应体系却呈现刚性约束。 全球超过70%的白银产量来自铜、铅、锌等金属的伴生矿，其产量取决于主金属的投资周期，对银价 变化反应迟钝。 矿产银产量 ...

席君安朝贸客户中的专业投资者，请勿润强、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的排价，亦不应被视为任何规资、法律、会计或税务建议，且本公司不会因素收入收到 体内容而规具为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准朝性、完整性及未来变更的可能往不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受微力作出投资决定并自主承担 投资风险、不应凭借本内容进行具体操作、本公司不对目使用本内容而造成的损失承担任何责任、除非劳有说职。本公司拥有本内容的组织和/流英地相关知识产权。 法坚本公司事先 书面许可。任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译此报告的全部或部分内容。 | 2026/1/26 | 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 王蒙 | 李先飞 | 刘雨萱 | Z0012691 | Z0020476 | Z0002529 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixia ...

近期贵金属市场的表现足以载入金融史册。黄金价格已正式突破 5000 美元/盎司，白银也在极短时间内站稳了 100 美元 关口。面对如此高位， 市场在震惊之余也产生了巨大的分歧：这究竟是阶段性的顶点，还是一个新时代的起点？ 阿萨交易学院分析师 Eden 认为，如果简单将此次狂飙归结为避险情绪，显然低估了本轮行情的强度。金银同步走强的背后，折射出的是全球 金融体系底层的结构性裂变。 从宏观视角来看，金银的大幅上涨反映了美元体系长期承压的公信力。近期美国在多个地缘方向上的动作——从对委内瑞拉、伊朗的激进举 措，到对格陵兰岛的主权表态，以及对北约成员国反复无常的关税威胁，都让美元作为全球储备货币所提供的"规则红利"受到侵蚀。 当投资者意识到资产配置换来的不再是体系稳定，而是更高的政策不确定性时，黄金和白银便成了重新定价风险的唯一锚点。这种从"制度信 任"向"硬资产信任"的迁移，是支撑金价站稳 5000 美元的核心基石。 阿萨交易学院分析师 Zero 指出，主要经济体近期在军费、公共安全及基础设施上的支出计划表明，全球财政约束正在弱化。这种财政扩张往 往伴随着货币供给的变相增加，从而抬高中长期的通胀预期。 在法币购买力 ...

Group 1 - The precious metals sector increased by 10.13% compared to the previous trading day, with Xiaocheng Technology leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4132.61, down 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14316.64, down 0.85% [1] - Key stocks in the precious metals sector showed significant price increases, with Yanzai Technology rising by 20.01% and Hunan Gold by 10.01% [1] Group 2 - The net outflow of main funds in the precious metals sector was 138 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 223 million yuan [1] - Detailed fund flow data indicates that Hengbang Co. had a main fund net inflow of 2.33 billion yuan, while retail investors had a net outflow of 86.06 million yuan [2] - Shandong Gold experienced a net outflow of 119 million yuan from main funds, but a net inflow of 178 million yuan from retail investors [2]

德邦证券指出，贵金属与有色金属表现强势。国际商品中"贵金属领涨，银价飙升，锡、金、镍价大 涨"，国内市场同样呈现"贵金属、有色、能化强势，白银领涨"的格局。地缘局势方面，"格陵兰局势升 级引发美欧分化，美元转弱，贵金属攀升"是推动价格的重要因素。整体而言，在美元走弱的背景下， 以贵金属为代表的有色金属行业价格表现强劲。 每日经济新闻 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 1月26日，黄金股票ETF（517400）大涨8.4%，近5日资金净流入超2亿元，资金积极布局 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The spot gold price has surpassed $5000 per ounce for the first time, reaching a historical high [1] - The precious metals sector in the A-share market opened with a rise of over 4% and closed with an increase of 10.12%, with 9 out of 12 stocks hitting the daily limit [1] - The precious metals index rose from 2407.71 points to 3517.33 points in just 16 trading days, marking a 46% increase [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Precious Metals Prices - The rise in precious metals is attributed to four main factors: increasing U.S. debt and deficits raising concerns about sustainability and dollar credibility, leading to central banks reducing U.S. Treasury holdings and increasing gold reserves [2] - The acceleration of AI industry development and global energy transition has increased demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [2] - A shift in global supply chain focus from efficiency to security has increased demand for key minerals, energy, and food reserves [2] - Changes in supply cycles have created a significant output gap in major non-ferrous metals since 2011, supporting industry prices [2] Group 3: Company Performance - Hunan Silver's net profit for 2025 is projected to be between 1.2698154 billion and 1.6084328 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of 50% to 90% due to rising sales prices of gold, antimony, and tungsten products [3] - Hunan Silver is a leading producer of silver and has a comprehensive industrial chain for the processing and sales of non-ferrous and precious metals [3] - The company has resumed full production after completing annual maintenance, with upgraded capacity in lead smelting and environmental safety systems [3]

智通财经1月26日讯，市场全天震荡调整，大小指数分化明显，深成指、创业板指高开低走，盘中均跌 超1%。沪深两市成交额3.25万亿，较上一个交易日放量1630亿。盘面上，市场热点较为杂乱，全市场 超3700只个股下跌。从板块来看，有色金属板块涨幅居前，其中贵金属概念领涨，四川黄金8天4板，晓 程科技、湖南黄金、盛达资源等多股涨停，紫金矿业创历史新高。油气概念走强，中国海油创历史新 高，洲际油气4天3板。化工板块震荡拉升，红宝丽、澄星股份涨停。下跌方面，商业航天再度陷入调 整，多只商业航天人气股大跌，中国卫通、中国卫星跌停。截至收盘，沪指跌0.09%，深成指跌 0.85%，创业板指跌0.91%。 板块方面 贵金属板块全天强势，湖南黄金、中金黄金、招金黄金、恒邦股份、西部黄金、四川黄金、山东黄金等 10余股涨停。消息面上，国际金价持续创下新高，现货黄金日内涨突破5100美元/盎司，纽约期金日内 涨2.26%突破5130美元/盎司。 中信证券研报认为，市场对美联储宽松货币政策的预期是推动贵金属价格上涨的最重要因素。另一方 面，全球央行购金潮的持续涌动，也成为支撑本轮黄金大牛市的核心驱动力，据中国人民银行官方储备 资产 ...

Market Overview - On January 26, the A-share market experienced slight fluctuations after reaching resistance at 4160 points, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4132.61 points, down 0.09%[7] - The total trading volume for both markets was 32,810 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years[3] Sector Performance - Financial, pharmaceutical, non-ferrous metals, and petroleum sectors performed well, while aerospace, electronic chemicals, computer equipment, and semiconductors lagged[3] - Over 60% of stocks in the two markets declined, with non-ferrous metals and precious metals leading the gains, while aerospace and semiconductor sectors saw significant outflows[7] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices were 16.91 times and 54.02 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[3][13] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a balanced allocation strategy, focusing on AI, high-end manufacturing, and cyclical sectors, as well as resource and consumer sectors for future investment opportunities[3] - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in the financial, pharmaceutical, petroleum, and coal industries[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy changes, and macroeconomic disturbances that could impact recovery[4]