Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][42]. Core Insights - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly outperformed the CSI 300 index, with an increase of 1.06% from July 18 to July 31, 2025, surpassing the index by approximately 0.05 percentage points [3][10]. - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns during the same period, with fisheries, aquaculture, planting, and feed sectors rising by 2.04%, 1.79%, 1.6%, and 0.64% respectively, while agricultural products processing and animal health sectors saw declines of 0.74% and 3.21% [11][12]. - Approximately 57% of stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, indicating a favorable market sentiment [12]. Industry Data Summary - **Pig Farming**: - The average price of external three-breed pigs decreased from 14.37 CNY/kg to 14.21 CNY/kg between July 18 and July 31, 2025 [21]. - The cost of corn was reported at 2402.02 CNY/ton, showing a slight decline, while soybean meal prices increased to 2984 CNY/ton [22]. - Profitability for self-bred pigs was 43.85 CNY/head, while purchasing piglets resulted in a loss of 116.78 CNY/head [26]. - **Poultry Farming**: - The average price of broiler chicks rose to 2.57 CNY/chick, while egg-laying chicks averaged 3.85 CNY/chick [28]. - The average price for broiler chickens increased to 6.83 CNY/kg, with a slight improvement in profitability to -0.43 CNY/chick [31]. - **Aquaculture**: - The average wholesale price for crucian carp was 22.69 CNY/kg, while carp saw a slight increase to 15.82 CNY/kg [33]. Industry News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and nine other departments released a plan to promote agricultural product consumption, focusing on optimizing supply, innovating distribution, and activating market demand [35]. - Among the companies reporting mid-year results, Haida Group achieved a revenue of 588.31 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, with a net profit of 26.39 billion CNY, up 24.16% [36]. Company Insights - Key companies to watch include: - Muyuan Foods (002714): A leading pig farming company with cost and scale advantages [43]. - Haida Group (002311): A top feed company expected to maintain steady market share growth [43]. - Lihua Co. (300761): A leading yellow feather chicken farming company with integrated advantages [43]. - Reap Bio (300119): A leader in the animal health sector with a growing product matrix for pet health [43]. - Zhongchong Co. (002891): A leading pet food company with strong domestic growth prospects [43].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of live pigs is dominated by the slaughter rhythm, with possible repeated fluctuations. It is expected that the slaughter volume will first decrease and then increase in the short term, and the price will fluctuate slightly weaker [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The live pig price declined, with the main contract dropping 2.29% weekly [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, farmers may reduce the supply at the beginning of the month, but the supply may resume later as they may slaughter pigs at a lower weight. The demand has slightly recovered in some areas, and the slaughterhouse operation rate has slightly increased, but high temperatures still suppress consumers' willingness to buy pork, resulting in a limited increase. Overall, short - term prices are dominated by the slaughter rhythm and are expected to fluctuate slightly weaker [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price declined this week, with the main contract dropping 2.29% weekly [10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 1, the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased, and there were 3000 futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 16 from last week [17]. Spot Market - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average live pig price was 14.23 yuan/kg this week, down 0.58 yuan/kg from last week and 5.51% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 32.72 yuan/kg, down 1.14 yuan/kg from last week and 3.85% from last month [28]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: As of July 24, the national average pork price was 25.37 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [32]. - **Pig - grain Ratio**: As of July 23, the pig - grain ratio was 6.16, down 0.07 from the previous week, below the break - even point [36]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream Situation - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In June, the inventory of breeding sows increased month - on - month, reaching 103.7% of the normal level. According to Mysteel data, the inventory of large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased slightly [41]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the live pig inventory increased year - on - year. In June, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of large - scale and small and medium - sized farms increased month - on - month [44]. - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In June, the slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased month - on - month, while that of small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly. The average slaughter weight decreased [47]. Industry Profit - **Live Pig and Poultry Farming Profit**: As of August 1, the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 116.78 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 45.39 yuan/head. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 43.85 yuan/head, a decrease of 18.3 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was a loss of 0.16 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 0.1 yuan/head, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 0.19 yuan/head [52]. Domestic Market - **Pork Imports**: In the first six months of 2025, China imported a total of 540,000 tons of pork, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.88%, at a historically low level [53][57]. Substitute Products - **White - striped Chicken Price and Standard - Fat Price Difference**: As of August 1, the price of white - striped chicken was 13.70 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of July 31, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.41 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/kg from last week [60]. Feed Market - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of August 1, the price of soybean meal increased by 14.57 yuan/ton to 2977.71 yuan/ton, while the price of corn decreased by 5.09 yuan/ton to 2402.75 yuan/ton [66]. - **Feed Index and Spot Price**: As of August 1, the DCE pig feed cost index closed at 935.61, a decrease of 0.82% from last week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [70]. - **Feed Production**: As of June 2025, the monthly feed production was 2.9377 million tons, an increase of 175,600 tons month - on - month [75]. CPI - As of June 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year [79]. Downstream Situation - **Slaughterhouse Operation**: In the 31st week, the slaughterhouse operation rate was 26.83%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points from last week. The fresh - sales rate decreased slightly, and the frozen - product storage rate increased slightly [82]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of June 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughterhouses decreased by 6.53% month - on - month. In June, the national catering revenue was 47.076 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [87]. Live Pig - related Stocks - The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data is provided [88].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a strong recovery in July, with all 30 broker stock combinations recorded positive returns, indicating a favorable investment environment [1][4]. Group 1: July Stock Performance - The top-performing stock in July was Kangchen Pharmaceutical, recommended by Ping An Securities, with a remarkable increase of 106.74% [3][4]. - Other notable stocks included Bori Pharmaceutical (82.05% increase) and Kangfang Biotech (68.13% increase), recommended by Dongwu Securities and Northeast Securities respectively [3][4]. - Stocks such as Yuandong Biological, Dongshan Precision, and Jitu Express-W also saw increases exceeding 50% [4]. Group 2: Broker Performance - Ping An Securities led the broker stock combinations with a return of 16.57% in July, followed by Kaiyuan Securities (13.57%) and Caitong Securities (12.93%) [5]. - Other brokers like China Merchants Securities, Great Wall Securities, and Galaxy Securities also achieved returns above 10% [5]. Group 3: August Investment Strategy - Brokers are adopting an aggressive strategy for August, focusing on technology growth stocks and cyclical stocks benefiting from mid-year performance [7][11]. - The market is expected to continue its upward trend driven by optimistic expectations regarding corporate ROE recovery [11]. Group 4: Recommended Stocks for August - The most frequently recommended stocks for August include Dongfang Caifu, Muyuan Foods, and Wanhua Chemical, each receiving four recommendations from different brokers [13][14]. - Dongfang Caifu is expected to benefit from a bullish trend in the securities sector, while Muyuan Foods is projected to maintain stable profits amid rising pig prices [13][14].

Market Overview - As of July 23, the national pig price was 14.78 yuan/kg, down 1.20% from July 16, with a pig-to-grain ratio of 6.16, a decrease of 1.12% [1] - By August 1, self-breeding pig farming profits were 43.85 yuan/head, down from 62.16 yuan/head the previous week, while purchased piglet farming incurred a loss of 116.78 yuan/head, worsening from a loss of 71.39 yuan/head the prior week [1] Price Trends - Domestic pig prices showed a slight increase, with Henan's average rising by 0.23 yuan to 14.21 yuan/kg and Sichuan's average increasing by 0.14 yuan to 13.38 yuan/kg [2] Institutional Insights - Dongwu Futures noted that the pig market experienced slight fluctuations, with a trend of price increases as farms were reluctant to sell due to previous price declines, and some supply constraints due to rainfall affecting market outflow [3] - Jianxin Futures reported that in late July, group outflow increased as farming enterprises aimed to meet monthly targets, leading to higher supply levels despite being in a consumption off-season, which continued to pressure pig prices [4] - The futures market reflected a decline in near-term contracts following the spot market, while medium to long-term outlooks suggest a slight increase in supply, with potential positive impacts from policies aimed at high-quality development and environmental regulations [4]

【导读】7月券商金股表现优异，券商陆续公布8月金股组合 7月A股"翻身"行情成色足，券商金股整体表现也较为优异，每市App收录的30家券商金股组合收益率全 部为正。 其中，平安证券的金股组合以16.57%的涨幅排在第一位；开源证券、财通证券分列二、三位，上月金 股组合收益超过10%。 个股方面，涨幅最大的金股是平安证券推荐的康辰药业，7月涨幅达106.74%；博瑞医药、康方生物、 苑东生物也涨幅居前。 最牛金股7月大涨106.74% 回顾7月金股表现，每市App数据显示，平安证券推荐的康辰药业以106.74%的月涨幅成为当月最牛金 股；由东吴证券推荐的博瑞医药以82.05%的月涨幅排名第二；排名第三的是由东北证券推荐的康方生 物，当月涨幅为68.13%。 银河证券表示，中报业绩驱动分化叠加政策预期升温，有助于资金回流推动A股持续上行。8月的投资 组合依然采取偏进攻的策略，建议关注三条主线：新质生产力+医药+盈利驱动。 此外，由平安证券推荐的苑东生物、由长江证券推荐的东山精密、中银证券推荐的极兔速递-W、东兴 证券推荐的统联精密当月涨幅也超50%。 | 股票名称 | 7月涨幅 | 推荐券商 | | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of brokerage "gold stocks" in July, with all 30 brokerage gold stock combinations showing positive returns, indicating a robust recovery in the A-share market [2][9]. Brokerage Performance - Ping An Securities' gold stock combination achieved the highest return of 16.57% in July, followed by Kaiyuan Securities at 13.57% and Caitong Securities at 12.93% [3][9][10]. - Notably, all brokerage gold stock combinations recorded positive returns, with several brokerages, including China Merchants Securities and Galaxy Securities, also exceeding 10% returns [9][10]. Top Performing Stocks - The best-performing stock was Kangchen Pharmaceutical, recommended by Ping An Securities, which surged by 106.74% in July [4][6]. - Other notable stocks included Borui Pharmaceutical (82.05%), Kangfang Biotech (68.13%), and Yuandong Biotech (56.60%), all showing significant monthly gains [6][7]. August Strategy - Brokerages are adopting an aggressive strategy for August, focusing on technology growth stocks and cyclical stocks benefiting from mid-year performance reports [12][15]. - The market outlook is optimistic, driven by expectations of recovering corporate ROE and a favorable policy environment, suggesting a continued upward trend in A-shares [15]. Common Recommendations - Several stocks received multiple recommendations from brokerages for August, including Dongfang Caifu, Muyuan Foods, and Wanhua Chemical, each recommended by four different brokerages [16][19]. - The rationale for recommending Dongfang Caifu includes the potential for the securities sector to enter a main upward trend, while Muyuan Foods is recognized for its leading position in the pig farming industry [16][19].

Economic Overview - As of June 2025, China's broad money supply (M2) reached 330.29 trillion yuan, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating significant monetary expansion [1] - Despite the monetary expansion, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, suggesting a deflationary trend in the economy [1][3] Reasons for Price Decline - The lack of inflation despite monetary expansion is attributed to two main factors: a significant portion of the newly issued money is circulating within the financial system and not reaching the broader economy, and a slowdown in income growth leading to reduced consumer demand [3] - The combination of excess inventory and declining consumer demand has forced companies to lower prices to stimulate sales [3] Price Decline in Key Sectors Automotive Sector - A price war has erupted in the automotive market, with domestic mid-range cars seeing price cuts of 20,000 to 30,000 yuan, while imported luxury cars are reduced by 80,000 to 100,000 yuan [7] - The price war is driven by the influx of new energy vehicles, reduced income among middle-class families, and intensified competition from tech companies entering the automotive space [7] Real Estate Market - The real estate market has been in a long-term adjustment since 2022, with average national housing prices dropping over 30% by mid-2025, and some cities experiencing declines exceeding 60% [10] - Contributing factors include an oversupply of housing, high price-to-income ratios, and a loss of investment appeal in real estate [10] Small Appliances - The small appliance sector is experiencing a price decline of 10% to 15%, with products like washing machines and refrigerators being affected [12] - Reasons for this trend include stagnant income growth, rapid technological advancements leading to new product releases, and fierce competition among brands [12] Pork Prices - Pork prices have significantly decreased from a peak of 40 yuan per jin to between 17 and 20 yuan per jin, marking a return to more affordable prices for consumers [15] - The decline is driven by overproduction in the pig farming industry and changing consumer preferences towards healthier meat options [15]

Core Insights - The black pig market in China is experiencing steady growth, with the market share increasing from less than 2% in 2014 to 5% currently, and projections suggest it could reach 10% in the next decade [4][5][8] - The overall value of the black pig industry is rising, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 4%, indicating increased consumer demand and higher sales prices [8][9] - There is a significant consumption gap in regions like Hainan and Guangdong, where the demand for black pig products exceeds supply by over 30% [10][22] Industry Trends - The black pig output is projected to reach 21.8 million heads in 2024, an increase of 2.55 million heads from 2023 [3][4] - The Northeast, North, and East China regions account for 70% of the national black pig production capacity, with notable developments in local breeds and production [11][13] - The black pig market is characterized by a dynamic balance of supply and demand, but regional structural contradictions are becoming more pronounced [17][18] Market Dynamics - The black pig industry is seeing a shift towards large-scale farming, with 65% of production now coming from this model, which offers significant profit advantages compared to traditional farming [56] - The average market penetration rate for black pig products has reached 15%, driven by rising consumer recognition and demand for high-quality pork [31][35] - Innovations in breeding and farming practices, such as antibiotic-free farming and the development of new black pig breeds, are enhancing the industry's competitiveness [49][46][39] Consumer Preferences - Black pig meat is favored in high-end markets due to its higher intramuscular fat content and superior taste, with premium cuts commanding prices significantly above regular pork [54][55] - The industry is expanding its product offerings, including deep-processed foods, to cater to diverse consumer needs and preferences [60][68] - Companies are increasingly focusing on brand development and market diversification to enhance their competitive edge [52][72]

为深入贯彻落实国家乡村振兴战略，积极响应金融服务实体的号召，保障地方生猪产业高质量健康发 展，近日，在大连商品交易所的支持下，海证期货有限公司(以下简称"海证期货")及子公司上海海证风 险管理有限公司联合中国大地财产保险股份有限公司天津分公司在天津市宁河区开展的生猪价格"保险 +期货"项目运行结束，下一步将根据交易所要求申请结项。 未来，海证期货将始终聚焦国家发展战略，以金融帮扶乡村振兴作为践行社会责任的契机与起点，持续 探索"保险+期货"模式及产业帮扶的落地场景，为农户提供更有效的风险管理工具，为推动我国农业现 代化进程贡献更多期货力量。 此次项目周期为一个月，覆盖生猪规模约3万头，折合约0.38万吨，项目金额约5000万元，其中大连商 品交易所提供25%的保费补贴，海证期货提供一部分保费补贴，其余部分为农户自缴。生猪养殖业作为 周期性较强的产业，生猪供需市场常常出现"价高伤民、价贱伤农"的情况。此次项目通过金融创新工具 为天津生猪养殖主体提供价格风险管理服务，缓解了生猪价格波动带来的风险，增强了养殖户对生猪养 殖业的信心，为当地生猪产业的稳定健康发展提供了有力保障。 ...

研究报告 生猪月报 供需改善政策提振，盘面有望震荡偏强 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 1 日星期五 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之 后的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 2025 年 7 月生猪期货主力合约 LH2509 期价在 13840-15150 元/吨之间运行。整体来看，7 月生猪期货主力合约呈现区间震荡、 冲高回落的"M"走势，当月总体小幅上涨。 截至 2025 年 7 月 31 日下午收盘，当月生猪主力合约 LH2509 上涨 205 元/吨，涨幅 1.48%，报收 14075 元/吨。 【后市展望】 2025 年 7 月，生猪期价主力合约呈现区间震荡、冲高回落的 "M"走势，当月总体小幅上涨。 展望后市，行业政策方面，国家连续召开会议推进"反内卷"， 提振生猪远期价格。对供给端来看，从能繁母猪存栏量推算，后 续供应增加格局未改，供给端对猪价形成一定压力。但是考虑到 2 月前后猪病的影响 ...