出品｜虎嗅商业消费组 作者｜柳柳 编辑｜苗正卿 题图｜AI生成 政策红利打开低价购金窗口，一场千里淘金盛宴正在海南上演。 12月18日海南自贸港正式启动全岛封关，到今天已超过10天，多项相关政策，相继实现了首批业务落地。海口海关数据显示，封关首周，海南新增外资备案 企业1972家，同比增长2.3倍。 封关后，海南将以"零关税、低税率、简税制"为重点核心政策。政策指出，"零关税"政策主要包括："一线"（国境线）全面放开：除极少数例外（如危害国 家安全、生态环境等特殊物品），绝大多数境外货物进入海南自贸港时，免征进口关税、进口环节增值税和消费税； "二线"（海南与内地之间）有限监管：海南与内地之间的货物流动视为"进口"，需按规定补税，但对岛内企业生产的货物加工增值超过30%（含）进入内地 时，免征进口关税（已在洋浦保税港区试点，封关后推广至全岛）；特定清单"零关税"则全覆盖。 一个重要变化在于，"零关税"商品税目比例从封关前的约21%大幅跃升至74%。企业进口自用的生产设备、运营所需的交通工具、原辅料，基本全部免征进 口关税、增值税和消费税。个人购物享受的免税额度也提升至每人每年10万元。 对于普通消费者来说，享 ...

12月31日消息，港股2025年最后半个交易日，三大指数低开低走，截至收盘，恒生指数跌0.96%，报 25606.37点，恒生科技指数跌1.24%，国企指数跌0.95%。今日港股盘面上，科网股跌多涨少，百度涨超 1%，网易跌超3%，京东、美团、阿里巴巴、快手跌超1%；汽车股高开低走，零跑汽车跌超2%；半导 体板块回调，中芯国际跌超1%；航空股涨幅居前，南方航空涨超4%；影视股活跃，大麦娱乐涨超5%。 | 初始 代码 | | 名称 | . | 最新 | 涨幅% ↓ | 年初至今涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | HSCEI | 恒生国企指数 | | 8905.74 | -0.95 | 22.17 | | 2 | મંદા | 恒生指数 | 1 | 25606.37 | -0.96 | 27.65 | | 3 | HSTECH | 恒生科技指数 | | 5509.26 | -1.24 | 23.30 | 从年线看，恒指全年涨27.65%，恒生科技指数全年涨23.30%，国企指数涨22.17%。年内黄金及有色金 属板块涨幅亮眼，珠峰黄金全年 ...

Group 1: Economic Situation in Iran - Protests have erupted across multiple cities in Iran, including Tehran and Mashhad, with citizens expressing dissatisfaction over economic conditions [3] - The Iranian economy is facing high inflation, a significant depreciation of the rial, and stagnation in GDP, exacerbated by U.S. sanctions leading to capital flight [4] - The Iranian president has indicated a commitment to economic reforms, focusing on the currency and banking systems to maintain purchasing power [3][4] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have experienced a rapid decline, with current international prices at approximately $4,379.3 per ounce, translating to about 988.5 yuan per gram in the domestic market [5] - The recent price movements indicate a bearish trend, with weak support around the 970-990 yuan per gram range, and potential further declines if the support level is breached [5] - A significant rebound in gold prices is unlikely unless there are unexpected positive developments, such as escalated geopolitical tensions or a sudden drop in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [5]

以下文章来源于虎嗅APP ，作者柳柳 虎嗅APP . 从思考，到创造 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 一个更低成本购金窗口。 作者丨柳柳 编辑丨苗正卿 来源丨虎嗅APP 政策红利打开低价购金窗口，一场千里淘金盛宴正在海南上演。 12月18日海南自贸港正式启动全岛封关，到今天已超过10天，多项相关政策，相继实现了首批业务 落地。海口海关数据显示，封关首周，海南新增外资备案企业1972家，同比增长2.3倍。 封关后，海南将以"零关税、低税率、简税制"为重点核心政策。政策指出，"零关税"政策主要包 括："一线"（国境线）全面放开：除极少数例外（如危害国家安全、生态环境等特殊物品），绝大多 数境外货物进入海南自贸港时，免征进口关税、进口环节增值税和消费税； 但人们还没来得及去定义，这场政策对各行各业来说，到底是一个怎样的想象空间。一股来自中产的 淘金热就迅速蔓延至海南的三亚与海口。 而紫金矿业、中国黄金、老凤祥等黄金企业也已纷纷布局海南，建设产业园或是区域总部。 一个更低成本的购金窗口 "二线"（海南与内地之间）有限监管：海南与内地之间的货物流动视为"进口"，需按规定补税，但对 岛内企业生产的货物加工增 ...

【要闻速递】 据CME"美联储观察"，市场对美联储未来降息预期趋于保守：明年1月降息25基点的概率仅14.9%，维 持利率不变概率高达85.1%；到3月累计降息25基点的概率为45.2%，维持不变48.3%，累计降息50基点 仅6.5%。 摘要今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，现货黄金交投于4344美元/盎司附近，金价周二反弹，势将创下自 1979年以来最大年度涨幅，受益于美联储降息预期、持续的地缘政治紧张、各国央行强劲的购金需求， 以及大量资金流入黄金ETF。 今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，现货黄金交投于4344美元/盎司附近，金价周二反弹，势将创下自1979年 以来最大年度涨幅，受益于美联储降息预期、持续的地缘政治紧张、各国央行强劲的购金需求，以及大 量资金流入黄金ETF。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 昨日黄金走势与10月21日高度相似：价格在暴跌后出现技术性修正，晚间于4403一线承压回落。今日金 价徘徊于5-10日均线附近，尾盘最低下探近70美元。 日线图上，大阴之后收出带长上影的小阳孕线，整体仍处于修正下跌格局，与4380前一轮下跌形成对 称，预示后市震荡后仍将进一步下探至下方支撑区域。 多周期压 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，12月31日，贵金属板块震荡拉升，湖南白银涨超4%，恒邦股份、中金黄金、山金国际、 山东黄金、招金黄金等跟涨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global gold market is expected to perform exceptionally well in 2025, driven by various factors including geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and changes in monetary policy [1][3]. Group 1: Global Gold Demand and Price Trends - In the first three quarters of 2025, global gold demand reached a historical high of 3,640 tons, with total demand increasing by 41% to $3,840 billion [3]. - The gold price saw a cumulative increase of over 60% in 2025, setting more than 50 historical highs throughout the year, significantly outperforming major asset classes like emerging market stocks and U.S. equities [3]. - The World Gold Council's report anticipates that gold prices will enter a new phase of dynamic balance in 2026, influenced by various macroeconomic factors [4]. Group 2: Future Price Scenarios - The World Gold Council outlines four potential scenarios for gold prices, with the current consensus suggesting a stable global economy and a potential fluctuation of -5% to +5% around current high levels [4]. - If the U.S. economy weakens and the Federal Reserve implements significant rate cuts, gold prices could rise by 5% to 15% [4]. - In extreme scenarios of deeper global economic slowdown, gold prices could increase by 15% to 30%, while a stronger-than-expected economic recovery could lead to a 5% to 20% decline in gold prices [4]. Group 3: Structural Changes in the Gold Market - Recent tax regulations in China may temporarily suppress demand for gold jewelry due to increased prices from VAT, but this impact is expected to diminish over time [6]. - The integration of gold ETFs and standard gold purchases is showing positive signs of capital inflow, potentially attracting consumers with investment motives [6]. - The financial and monetary attributes of gold are becoming more pronounced, with gold being recognized as a strategic asset for long-term investment portfolios [7]. Group 4: Technological Innovations and Market Standards - The World Gold Council is exploring the introduction of "digital gold" to enhance the trading, settlement, and collateral systems in the gold market [8]. - Standardization in the gold industry is crucial for market efficiency, with initiatives aimed at responsible mining and improving transparency across the supply chain [9]. - China's role as the largest gold producer and consumer is pivotal, with significant demand for gold bars and ETFs contributing to global growth [10]. Group 5: International Cooperation and Market Development - The Shanghai Gold Exchange is highlighted as a successful model for the gold ecosystem, with recent developments in offshore gold delivery enhancing global trading capabilities [10]. - The establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port is expected to provide new opportunities for cross-border innovation in the gold industry, potentially benefiting the global gold market [10].

Group 1 - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets showed a growth style leading the rally in December, with the ChiNext and North Star 50 indices rising over 5% [1] - The core drivers for the cyclical sector include economic recovery expectations and the revaluation of strategic resources, particularly benefiting from global manufacturing recovery and resource security themes [1][2] - The growth style focuses on technological self-reliance and new productivity, with capital concentrating on sectors like defense, communication, and AI-related high-end manufacturing [1][2] Group 2 - In January, the A-share market will enter a critical data verification period, influenced by policy effects, macro data, corporate performance, and liquidity changes, leading to potential increased volatility [2] - Key sectors such as defense, 6G, and satellite internet will require performance or order validation to digest previous gains, while commercial aerospace and AI computing sectors may still present active opportunities [2] - Strategic resource segments, especially rare metals like antimony, tungsten, and rare earths, are being revalued by the market due to their essential role in advanced technology breakthroughs [2] Group 3 - The company has excellent asset allocation in mineral resources, with a projected CAGR of 24% for copper production and 12% for gold production from 2020 to 2024, leading in growth among major copper/gold mining companies [6] - The company has successfully completed several significant acquisitions, contributing to production and profit, with ongoing projects expected to support sustainable growth in copper and gold businesses [6][8] - The company has effectively controlled costs, with production costs for copper and gold remaining competitive, positioning it within the top 20% globally [7] Group 4 - The company is benefiting from a stable coal production capacity of 48 million tons/year and has seen an increase in profitability due to low extraction costs and high long-term contracts [18] - The company is expanding its electrolytic aluminum capacity, with a projected increase to 121,000 tons/year by the end of 2025, supported by cost advantages from proximity to coal sources [19] - The company is actively promoting clean energy transition, with significant growth in renewable energy installations, aiming for 700,000 kW by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [19] Group 5 - The company is a leading supplier of air conditioning refrigeration valves, with rapid growth in automotive and humanoid robot businesses, actively developing new growth curves [47] - The company achieved a revenue of 240.29 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 16.86%, and a net profit of 32.42 billion yuan, up 40.85% [47] - The company is focusing on the development of robotic components, with plans for overseas mass production to strengthen its position in the global supply chain [49]

Core Insights - The gold market experienced a record-breaking surge in Q3 2025, with total demand increasing by 3% year-on-year to 1,313 tons, and value demand soaring by 44% to a historic $146 billion [2][4]. - Year-to-date, total gold demand reached 3,717 tons, with a value exceeding $384 billion, reflecting a 41% year-on-year increase [2]. Investment Demand - Investment demand, driven by ETFs and gold bars and coins, accounted for a significant portion of the gold market, with global investment demand reaching 537 tons in Q3, a 47% year-on-year increase [3][4]. - The surge in investment is attributed to "certainty anxiety," with geopolitical instability and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts driving investors towards gold as a safe asset [4][6]. - The "FOMO effect" (Fear of Missing Out) has also played a role, as rising gold prices attract more investors, creating a positive feedback loop [4]. Central Bank Purchases - Central banks globally net purchased 220 tons of gold in Q3, a 28% increase from the previous quarter and a 10% year-on-year rise [6][9]. - This reflects a long-term strategic shift towards gold, with emerging market central banks actively increasing their gold reserves [7][9]. - Notable purchases included Kazakhstan (18 tons), Brazil (15 tons), and China (5 tons), indicating a trend of "de-dollarization" among central banks [7][9]. Jewelry Consumption - In contrast to investment and central bank demand, global gold jewelry consumption fell by 19% year-on-year to 371 tons in Q3, marking the worst performance for the third quarter since 2020 [10]. - High gold prices have impacted purchasing power, particularly in major markets like India and China, where demand has significantly declined [10][11]. - Despite the drop in volume, the value of jewelry consumption increased by 13% to $41 billion, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards higher-value products [10][11]. Supply Side - Global gold supply grew by 3% year-on-year to 1,313 tons in Q3, with mine production reaching a record high of 977 tons [12]. - However, uncertainties in mining operations and lower-than-expected recycled gold supply pose challenges to future production [13][14]. - The combination of surging demand and moderate supply growth reinforces the supply-demand balance, supporting gold prices [14]. Future Trends - The future trajectory of the gold market will hinge on three key variables: the performance of the U.S. dollar and interest rates, geopolitical and economic risks, and the supply-demand gap [15][18]. - Gold is viewed as a stabilizing asset for portfolio diversification, particularly in the current complex economic environment [15][18].

Core Viewpoint - The global macroeconomic landscape is undergoing rapid restructuring, driven by technological revolutions, competition for scarce resources, and changes in the world currency system. The report outlines ten major investment opportunities for 2026 that align with these macro trends [3][42]. Group 1: Major Investment Opportunities - Opportunity 1: Gold will continue to be accumulated, maintaining a strong position for precious metals [4][6]. - Opportunity 2: Silver is undergoing a value reassessment, with strategic metal resources emerging [11][50]. - Opportunity 3: Electricity and energy will lead the way, solidifying the foundation for industrial construction [15][53]. - Opportunity 4: New technologies and manufacturing will accelerate the integration of commercial applications [17][57]. - Opportunity 5: The construction of a unified market will accelerate the release of consumer demand [19][59]. - Opportunity 6: Enterprises will continue to expand overseas and international trade will remain robust [21][62]. - Opportunity 7: The capital market's "new four bulls" will optimize resource allocation [25]. - Opportunity 8: The role of Hong Kong as an international financial center will be further strengthened [27]. - Opportunity 9: The internationalization of the Renminbi and the benefits of Asia-Pacific economic integration will be realized [30]. - Opportunity 10: The shift to a loose monetary policy in the U.S. will favor capital inflows into emerging markets [33]. Group 2: Economic Trends and Implications - The technological revolution is reshaping production and consumption paradigms across various industries [5][45]. - The competition among debt economies for scarce resources is altering global demand and reserves for raw materials [5][45]. - The structure of world currencies is experiencing significant changes in valuation, payment, reserve, financing, and reinvestment [5][45].