【 摘要 】浙商证券廖静池称，展望后市，科技成长板块在经历三周的强势期之后，"跟随"权重 指数节奏进入高位震荡整理。招商银行陈峤认为，短期黄金回调动能仍在累积，中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。 一、焦点锐评 1．黄金、白银史诗级暴跌 1月30日，在亚市早盘传出特朗普将提名凯文·沃什任美联储主席的消息后贵金属即转跌，现货白 银价格一度暴跌36%，创出历史最大日内跌幅；现货黄金价格一度下跌超过12%，盘中跌穿每盎 司4700美元，遭遇40年来单日最大跌幅。沃什在美联储任职期间一贯对通胀保持警惕，经常支持 更高利率。但去年他转而呼应特朗普观点。 【解读】招商银行陈峤分析称，短期看，在本月极端单边行情落地后，市场回调动能仍在累积， 后续调整走势或进一步延续，建议交易型投资者保持警惕，防范市场波动风险。中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。当下市场更多聚焦于美元信用重塑与全球秩序重构，与1970- 1974年布雷顿森林体系瓦解时的黄金牛市更为类似。 二、权益市场 1.富国基金：从"结构牛"走向"全面牛" A股 | 万得全A | 6783.79 -1.59% | | 5. 78% | 5. 83% ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations at high levels, with gold and oil-related ETFs showing significant gains, while overall ETF funds saw a net outflow of nearly 300 billion yuan during the week of January 26 to January 30 [1][2]. ETF Performance - During the week, 541 ETFs achieved positive returns, with over 35% of the total ETFs showing gains. Gold and oil-related ETFs led the performance, with several gold stock ETFs and oil ETFs rising over 7% [1][2]. - The Brazilian ETF (159100) had the highest weekly gain at 22.5%, while the South Korean semiconductor ETF and other Brazilian ETFs also saw gains exceeding 10% [1]. Fund Flows - The overall ETF market experienced a net outflow of approximately 298.42 billion yuan from January 26 to January 30. However, gold and non-ferrous metal ETFs emerged as the main beneficiaries of fund inflows, with the gold ETF (518880) attracting the highest net inflow of 8.503 billion yuan [2][3]. - Other notable inflows included over 5 billion yuan for both the non-ferrous metal ETFs (516650 and 512400) and over 4 billion yuan for the Guotai gold ETF [2]. Trading Volume - ETFs tracking major indices such as the CSI 300 and CSI 500 saw significant trading volumes, with the CSI 300 ETF exceeding 300 billion yuan and the CSI A500 ETF surpassing 220 billion yuan in weekly trading volume [3]. Market Sentiment and Strategy - Analysts suggest that the current market requires caution due to potential short-term cooling risks, emphasizing the need for a balance between growth and defensive strategies. High-technology manufacturing and information technology sectors are highlighted for their solid growth logic despite high valuations [3][4]. - Investment strategies should focus on sectors benefiting from global demand and the AI industry, while also considering the defensive value of dividend assets in response to potential market volatility [4].

Core Insights - The public fund industry is actively launching new products, with technology themes becoming a popular investment focus due to improving macroeconomic conditions and ongoing technological advancements, leading to a positive outlook for the A-share market through 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - Multiple public funds have recently launched technology-themed products, with significant fundraising success, such as the Morgan Stanley Hong Kong-Shanghai Technology Mixed Fund raising 4.424 billion yuan [1] - The overall market sentiment is expected to remain positive, with sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, artificial intelligence, and robotics showing strong performance [1][2] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The gradual recovery of the economy, driven by the "anti-involution" policy and strong demand in various sectors, is anticipated to lead to a stable economic environment through 2026 [2] - The new wave of technological revolution is expected to reshape the global economic landscape, providing strong momentum for China's economic development [2] Group 3: Investment Directions - Five key investment areas are highlighted: 1. Domestic semiconductor industry growth driven by increased production and technological upgrades [3] 2. Non-ferrous metals benefiting from global resource adjustments and domestic policy, with structural demand from AI and new energy sectors [3] 3. Power equipment sector gaining opportunities from global AI infrastructure development [3][4] 4. AI computing power infrastructure growth supported by increased capital expenditure from major internet companies [4] 5. Humanoid robots entering the industrialization phase, showcasing significant market potential [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices reached historical highs, but a sudden market downturn led to significant losses for many investors who had increased their positions and leveraged their investments [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 29, gold prices peaked at $5,598.75 per ounce, while silver reached $121.654, both marking all-time highs [1]. - By January 31, a large volume of sell orders flooded the market, causing prices to plummet rapidly [1]. - Year-to-date performance shows London gold down 9.25% and London silver down 26.42% [3]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - An individual reported a loss of $1.09 million on an $8 million investment in gold short-term trading, highlighting the risks of high-frequency trading and the mismatch between investment scale and returns [4]. - Many retail investors used high leverage to chase rising prices, leading to widespread panic and fears of significant losses when prices began to fall [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent price increase was driven by geopolitical tensions and risk aversion, but lacked fundamental support such as actual inflation or central bank purchases [7]. - The COMEX futures market showed excessive open interest, which contributed to the price drop as margin calls triggered a wave of liquidations [7]. - Broader commodity markets, including copper and tin, also experienced declines, indicating a systemic response to liquidity changes and potential demand weakness [9].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced significant outflows from equity ETFs, with nearly 800 billion yuan withdrawn in January, primarily attributed to Central Huijin's reduction in holdings [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Outflows - In January, equity ETFs saw a total net outflow of approximately 800 billion yuan, with 12 broad-based ETFs experiencing outflows exceeding 110 billion yuan, totaling 939.74 billion yuan [1][2]. - The largest outflows were observed in the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF, which saw a net outflow of 190.84 billion yuan, followed by the E Fund CSI 300 ETF with 152.66 billion yuan, and the Huaxia CSI 300 ETF with 137.59 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Fund Size Changes - The affected ETFs have significantly decreased in size compared to the end of 2025, with the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF shrinking from over 400 billion yuan to 229.5 billion yuan by the end of January [2]. - The E Fund CSI 300 ETF's size dropped from over 300 billion yuan to 148 billion yuan, while the Huaxia CSI 300 ETF fell from nearly 230 billion yuan to 95.3 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Central Huijin's Role - Central Huijin is identified as the primary holder in 11 of the 12 ETFs that faced large redemptions, indicating a potential significant reduction in their holdings [3][5]. - For instance, Central Huijin held 735.13 billion shares of the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF at the end of 2025, which decreased to 486.88 billion shares by January 30 [4]. Group 4: Market Trends and Inflows - Despite the outflows from broad-based ETFs, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and satellites have attracted substantial inflows, with new funds entering the market [1][6]. - In January, specific thematic ETFs like the Penghua Non-Ferrous Metals ETF and the Huaxia Non-Ferrous Metals ETF saw net inflows of 18.26 billion yuan and 14.84 billion yuan, respectively [6].

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing accelerated sector rotation, with previously strong-performing sectors like computer and new energy facing corrections, while previously lagging sectors such as liquor and real estate are performing well [2][5] - Despite external disturbances, the A-share market shows signs of a phase of adjustment, but the medium-term outlook remains positive with ample opportunities [3][4] - The upcoming Spring Festival holiday is not dampening trading activity, indicating strong market engagement and potential for further development in the spring market [2][3] Group 2 - The market may see a style switch as the spring rally progresses, with a shift from small-cap stocks to large-cap stocks and a focus on quality over speculation [5][6] - The recent performance of liquor and real estate sectors suggests a convergence in market structure as the spring rally enters its latter half, with expectations of balanced upward trends [5][6] - Long-term prospects for the metals sector remain positive due to anticipated demand from AI data centers and renewable energy, despite short-term corrections providing better entry points [6]

Group 1 - In 2025, the new "National Nine Articles" and the "1+6" reform of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board drove a moderate development of the Shanghai and Shenzhen new stock market, with a total of 90 new stocks listed, an increase of 13 from 2024 [1][7] - The fundraising scale significantly increased, with total funds raised reaching 124.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 98.25%, and large IPOs in the second half contributed 72% of the total fundraising [1][18] - The average fundraising amount per new stock was 13.80 million yuan, up 69.62% year-on-year, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board leading at an average of 20.03 million yuan [1][24] Group 2 - In the primary market, the offline subscription yield remained stable compared to 2024, but accounts with a scale of 5 billion yuan and above saw a significant increase in yield [2][31] - The average first-day closing price increase was 227.90%, maintaining a high level, with no stocks experiencing a loss on the first day [2][41] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board had the highest average first-day closing price increase, while industries such as non-ferrous metals and social services performed notably well [2][50] Group 3 - In the secondary market, timing remained a key factor for improving investment returns and success rates, with new stocks listed during market sentiment lows or upward cycles performing better [2][8] - The average investment return in the secondary market was 14.53%, a slight decrease from 2024, but the investment success rate increased to 33.33% [2][8] - The ChiNext Board outperformed in both investment returns and success rates, with industries like electronics and social services leading [2][8]

北京时间2月1日上午，比特币跌破79000美元关口，报78130美元/枚，跌至2025年4月以来的最低水平。 截至发稿，比特币报78848.5美元，日内跌6.35%，此前一度跌至75687美元。 SOL、狗狗币等跌超10%。 | 加密货币数据分析 | | | | | | | | | Q | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 后生品 | 海外 | 代币解模总览 | | Memes ETH SOL BSC Layer-1 | | AI Al Agents | Gar> ( ( 盘示自遇) | | 现 鹤语器 8 自定义 | | 直 | | · 瑞居 | 走 | | 价格 价格(245%) | 资金费本 | | 24小时成交题 成交部(246%) | 市值 | 用食 | 加合(15%) | MO(24h%) | | | * 1 | B BTC | $78848.5 | -6.35% | -0.0009% | $1120 5102 | +6.36% | $1.57万亿 | $541.2207 ...

判断本轮ETF集中赎回潮基本结束，权重股迎来修复窗口。大周期维度下的风格切换正在发生，从小盘切大 盘，从题材切质量。沃什被提名美联储主席代表了"美国版脱虚向实"的政策意愿，无论能否成功践行理念，对 全球风险资产的风格都会产生巨大影响。站在A股视角，从资源热到周期热，涨价线索的全面演绎可能贯穿一 季度。周期板块的底层共性是利润率修复空间大，背后是中国的政策从扩大规模逐步向提质增效的转变。 配置的底层思路还是应围绕中国具备竞争优势的行业在全球定价权的重估，化工、有色、电力设备、新能源的 底仓配置思路依然成立，但对投机属性越发明显的贵金属板块要开始保持警惕。消费和地产链的躁动修复理应 发生在春季，这与制造、科技并不对立。 华泰证券：转向胜率思维 上周A股高位震荡，大盘价值占优。向后看，节前风险偏好抬升的制约因素偏多：外部，凯文·沃什或接任美联 储主席，由于其此前被认为是通胀鹰派，美元、美债利率上行，风险资产承压；内部，随着行情向白酒等估值 低位板块扩散，轮动加快下攫取超额收益的难度加大，技术性调整压力和长假效应下资金获利了结意愿上升。 但本轮春季行情启动的核心驱动并未发生根本性变化，春节后至两会前胜率提升，若市场调 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨金属、非金属与采矿 [Table_Title] 波动不改趋势，静待第二波重估 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周金银巨幅波动，下跌背后三重因素：1）导火索：宏观叙事出现变化。凯文·沃什被提名为 美联储下任主席候选人，是直接触发点。尽管其近期支持降息，但其长期鹰派立场及可能推动 "缩表与降息并行"的政策倾向，动摇了市场对"美元趋势性单边贬值"的最激进押注，抽走了短期 情绪炒作的基础。2）核心机制：杠杆资金的负反馈。3）市场阶段：从"逼空投机"到"价值重估" 的切换。我们认为 70-90 美元/盎司银价中泡沫化部分或已被挤出，底层逻辑并未反转。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 肖勇 叶如祯 王筱茜 肖百桓 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490519080004 SAC：S0490522080001 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BWM115 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.c ...