1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The stock market may benefit from the expected increase in risk appetite, and the bond market yield will fluctuate at a low level. A - shares may benefit from the increase in risk appetite due to potential policy support and positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade talks. The bond market price has fully factored in the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut expectations, and the bond yield may continue to fluctuate at a low level. Gold still has a long - term positive outlook, but short - term volatility may increase [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Market - In the past week (20250505 - 20250511), US stocks declined, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changing by - 0.27%, - 0.47%, and - 0.16% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index changing by - 2.46%. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.61%, and the FTSE China A50 Index rose 2.63% [2]. - A - shares generally rose. The wind All - A Index rose 2.32%. Among them, the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and wind micro - cap stocks changed by 2.13%, 2.00%, 1.60%, 2.22%, 3.58%, and 5.65% respectively. Growth and blue - chip stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets both rose [3]. - All 30 CITIC industries rose. Industries with relatively large increases included national defense and military industry, communication, banking, machinery, new energy, and comprehensive, with weekly increases of more than 3.5% [4]. Bond Market - In the past week (20250505 - 20250511), the yield of treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 10 years decreased, and the yield of those with a maturity of 10 years and above increased, making the yield curve steeper. The 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.06% compared to April 30, 2025 [5]. - The capital price decreased, and the bond market leverage level increased. As of May 9, 2025, R007 was 1.5805%, down 25.91 BP from April 30, 2025, and DR007 was 1.5409%, down 25.77 BP. The central bank had a net withdrawal of 781.7 billion yuan in the past week. The 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume increased from 4.97 trillion yuan on April 30, 2025, to 6.32 trillion yuan on May 9, 2025 [6]. - In the past week (20250505 - 20250511), the price of US treasury bonds fell, and the yield curve shifted upward as a whole. As of May 9, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year US treasury bond rose 4 BP to 4.37% compared to May 2, 2025 [7]. Foreign Exchange Market - In the past week (20250505 - 20250511), the US dollar appreciated. The US dollar index rose 0.38%, the US dollar against the offshore RMB exchange rate rose 0.40% to 7.2402, and the US dollar against the on - shore RMB exchange rate fell 0.24% to 7.2461 [8]. Commodity Market - In the past week (20250505 - 20250511), the spot price of London gold rose 2.30% to $3324.55 per ounce, and the COMEX gold futures price rose 3.14% to $3326.30 per ounce [9]. Foreign Trade - From January to April, China's cumulative export increased by 6.4% year - on - year, 0.6% higher than that in the first three months. Although the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of exports to the US decreased from 4.5% in January - March to - 2.5% in January - April, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of exports to other countries and regions such as ASEAN, the EU, Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea increased. The cumulative year - on - year import decreased by 5.2%, 1.8% higher than that in the first three months. The trade surplus in January - April was $368.76 billion, an increase of $113.808 billion year - on - year [10].

Market Performance - Major stock indices in China experienced a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.82% to 3369.24 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.72% to 10301.16 points, and the ChiNext Index climbing by 2.63% to 2064.71 points, alongside a total trading volume of 1341 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 120 billion yuan from the previous day [1] Trade Relations and Sector Impact - The recent US-China trade talks resulted in substantial progress, with both sides agreeing to significantly lower bilateral tariff levels, which is expected to benefit sectors such as electric new energy and export chains, particularly in areas like the power battery supply chain and photovoltaic inverters [2][5] - The reduction in tariffs is anticipated to restore business for companies exporting to the US, especially those in the electric new energy sector, which had been adversely affected by previous tariff policies [2] PCB Demand and AI Sector - The easing of US-China tariffs is expected to alleviate pressure on the demand forecast for AI-related PCBs, with positive feedback from downstream ODM manufacturers indicating resilience in PCB demand [3] Gas Turbine Market - The global gas turbine market is entering an upcycle, driven by increased demand for natural gas power generation and the expansion of AIDC in North America, leading to a surge in orders for core components from Chinese manufacturers [4] Strategic Mineral Export Control - The Chinese government is intensifying efforts to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals, with a coordinated action plan involving multiple departments to prevent illegal outflows [6] Financial Support for Nansha Development - A joint opinion from several financial regulatory bodies emphasizes increased financial support for the development of Nansha, aiming to enhance its role in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and support high-end manufacturing industries [7] Brain-Computer Interface Industry Development - Sichuan province has launched an action plan to cultivate the brain-computer interface and human-computer interaction industries, targeting significant breakthroughs and the establishment of a robust industrial ecosystem by 2027 [8] Manus Product Launch - The AI Agent product Manus has announced its open access to all users, introducing a free task execution model and plans for a subscription service to accelerate commercialization [9]

Overview of A-shares 2024 Annual Report and 2025 Q1 - The overall performance of A-shares in 2024 did not improve, while the performance in 2025 Q1 showed significant improvement, although revenue recovery was slow [9][10] - The cumulative net profit growth rate for all A-shares/non-financial in 2024 was -2.3%/-12.9%, a decline from 2024 Q3 [10] - In 2025 Q1, the cumulative net profit growth rate for all A-shares/non-financial was 3.6%/4.2%, a substantial increase of 5.8/17.1 percentage points compared to the 2024 annual report [10][12] Revenue and Performance Growth Overview - The cumulative revenue growth rate for all A-shares/non-financial in 2024 was -0.9%/-1.0%, showing slight improvement from 2024 Q3 [10] - In 2025 Q1, the cumulative revenue growth rate for all A-shares/non-financial was -0.7%/-0.7%, indicating a minor recovery compared to the 2024 annual report [10][12] Profitability Analysis - The return on equity (ROE) for all A non-financial in 2025 Q1 was 6.68%, slightly down from 6.70% in 2024 Q4, indicating a continued bottoming process [14] - The net profit margin showed a low recovery, while asset turnover and debt ratio continued to decline, reflecting a fragile recovery trend [14][20] Industry Performance Overview - Profitability is shifting towards midstream and technology sectors, with a decline in profit share from financial and upstream sectors [28] - The recovery in consumer profitability is mainly driven by the agricultural and forestry sectors, while midstream manufacturing and technology sectors are showing significant recovery trends [28] Contribution to Profitability - The improvement in profitability is attributed to the "two new" policies and base effect, with significant contributions from electronics, home appliances, and machinery sectors [35] - The real estate sector showed a notable reduction in losses, contributing positively to the overall performance in 2025 Q1 [35][38] Sector Focus - The technology manufacturing sector is highlighted for its revenue growth indicators, with a focus on penetration rates [24] - Key sectors with positive revenue growth in 2024 Q4 and 2025 Q1 include computers, electronics, machinery, automobiles, and communications [24][28] Future Outlook - The performance growth rhythm for all A non-financial in 2025 is expected to present a "V" shape, with a potential cumulative profit growth rate of -2.3% under neutral assumptions [22][24] - The government’s commitment to GDP targets and sufficient counter-cyclical policy reserves are expected to support a recovery in profitability [22][24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market outlook post "May Day" is optimistic, with expectations for A-shares to likely "catch up" after the holiday [1] - The focus for investment allocation is on technology and dividend themes, which are seen as key areas of interest among analysts [1] - In the context of increasing global geopolitical tensions, dividend assets are recognized for their stabilizing role [1] Group 2 - According to Zhongtai Securities, A-share companies showed improved overall profitability in Q1, but there is significant sectoral divergence [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support in mitigating economic pressures from the US-China trade war [2] - May presents opportunities primarily in technology, consumption, and certain cyclical sectors, with a recommendation to focus on TMT sectors and potential growth areas in consumer demand [2] Group 3 - Huajin Securities highlights that technology and consumption may be the main focus for investment in May, with historical trends showing strong performance in these sectors during this period [3] - The report notes that the "May Day" holiday saw a surge in travel and consumption, benefiting sectors like social services and food and beverage [3] - There is an expectation for technology to yield excess returns in May, driven by industry trends and policy support [3] Group 4 - The report suggests that sectors with strong Q1 performance are likely to outperform in May, including computing, robotics, media, telecommunications, electronics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and electric power [4] - It also recommends low-cost dividend sectors such as large financials and electric power for investment during this period [4] Group 5 - CITIC Construction emphasizes a focus on technology growth and service consumption in the short term, with a market outlook indicating a potential shift towards growth stocks [5] - The report suggests a rotational market pattern characterized by "growth-risk-avoidance-consumption" phases [5] - Key sectors to watch include electronics, machinery, computing, automotive, home appliances, agriculture, retail, beauty care, and social services [5]

联合研究丨组合推荐 [Table_Title] 金融制造行业 5 月投资观点及金股推荐 research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 长江金融行业（地产、非银、银行）和制造行业（电新、机械、军工、轻工、环保）2025 年 5 月投资观点及金股推荐。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 邬博华 于博 赵智勇 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490517110001 SFC：BQK482 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BRP550 王贺嘉 蔡方羿 徐科 SAC：S0490520110004 SAC：S0490516060001 SAC：S0490517090001 SFC：BUX462 SFC：BUV463 SFC：BUV415 刘义 吴一凡 马祥云 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490521120002 SFC：BUV416 SFC：BUV596 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 13 %% %% %% %% ...

2025 年 05 月 04 日 策略类●证券研究报告 节后开启震荡反弹，五月震荡偏强 定期报告 投资要点 假期期间担忧的风险基本未发生，节后可能开启震荡反弹。（1）假期期间海外风 险事件并未发生，国内政策继续偏积极。一是假期期间中国商务部表示中方正在对 美方主动要求谈判进行评估，中美谈判可能性增大。二是假期期间国内积极的政策 进一步落地实施。（2）假期期间海外流动性宽松预期未有变化。一是美国 4 月份 制造业 PMI、新增非农就业人数环比、平均时薪同比增速等均有所回落；二是美联 储继续降息概率仍较大，美元维持低位。（3）假期期间国内出行和消费数据火爆。 复盘历史，影响 5 月 A 股走势的主要因素是政策和外部事件、基本面和流动性。 （1）5 月 A 股表现多偏弱：2010 年以来的 15 年中上证综指仅有 6 次 5 月上涨。 （2）影响 5 月 A 股走势的主要因素是政策和外部事件、基本面和流动性。一是政 政策宽松或外部事件积极则上证综指 5 月可能上涨，如 2014 年"新国九条"发布、 2015 年央行调降 LPR、2021 "双碳"目标确立等；否则 A 股表现可能偏弱，如 2010、2011 年欧债 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a return to technology growth in May 2025, focusing on three main investment directions [2][5] - The recommended "golden stocks" for May include companies from various sectors such as technology, environmental services, defense, and healthcare, with detailed financial metrics provided [3][68] - The report highlights the importance of macroeconomic factors such as "loose monetary policy" and "weak dollar" in influencing market styles, favoring small-cap growth stocks [5][6] Group 2 - For the computer sector, the report recommends Shen Sanda A, citing its strong position in AI infrastructure and data services, with expected revenue growth driven by government and state-owned enterprise demand [10][11] - In the environmental services sector, Hanlan Environment is highlighted for its potential revenue growth and improved cash flow due to ongoing debt resolution and operational efficiency [15][16] - The defense sector's Steel Research High-tech is projected to benefit from increasing market demand for high-temperature alloys, with significant profit growth anticipated [20][23] Group 3 - The report identifies Xiaoshangpin City in the commerce sector as a key player in the small commodity trade, benefiting from the growth of the Yiwu market and new business opportunities in cross-border e-commerce [29][31] - Horizon Robotics is noted for its advanced autonomous driving solutions, with a significant market opportunity as the penetration of high-level autonomous vehicles increases [36][40] - BeiGene is recognized for its innovative drug pipeline, particularly the growth of its core product, with expectations of substantial revenue increases in the coming years [44][45] Group 4 - The report discusses the electronic sector's Jingzhida, which is positioned to capture market share in storage testing machines, with significant growth potential as domestic demand increases [54][55] - In the new energy sector, Sanhua Intelligent Control is highlighted for its strategic partnerships with major automotive manufacturers, anticipating strong profit growth driven by electric vehicle demand [56][57] - Huichuan Technology is noted for its advancements in automation and robotics, with expectations of increased market share and profitability as the industry recovers [62][63]

| 排名 | 股票名称 | 主力资金净流入(亿元) | 主力资金净流入率(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 常山北明 | 9.89 | 48.40 | | 2 | 瑞芯微 | 5.84 | 21.96 | | 3 | 探路者 | 3.39 | 20.86 | | ব | 塞力斯 | 3.26 | 12.59 | | 5 | 南方精工 | 3.23 | 19.72 | | 6 | 贵州茅台 | 3.10 | 9.25 | | 7 | 海南华铁 | 3.09 | 11.28 | | 8 | 川润股份 | 2.81 | 50.09 | | g | 兴森科技 | 2.37 | 18.83 | | 10 | 汇川技术 | 2.13 | 8.24 | | 排名 | 板块名称 | 主力资金净流出（亿元） | 主力资金净流出率(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ー | 银行 | -20.86 | -6.54 | | 2 | 基础化工 | -14.32 | -2.50 | | 3 | 有色金属 | -11.65 | -4.18 | | ব | 电新行业 | ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The large-scale tariffs implemented by Trump in early April 2025 led to a surge in consumer purchases in March, resulting in a month-on-month retail growth rate of +1.4%, a significant increase from February's +0.2% [2] - However, this front-loading of consumer demand may lead to a weakening of future retail data, indicating potential risks for upcoming consumption trends [2] Group 2: Industry Research - The real estate sector is identified as the largest driver of domestic demand, with a recommendation for strategic investment in the real estate supply chain, including leading companies such as Beike-W, China State Construction, and major cement and glass producers like Conch Cement and Qibin Group [3] - The report suggests that these companies are positioned well due to the cyclical bottoming and improving profitability, alongside potential policy support [3] Group 3: Oil and Gas Sector - The IEA and OPEC have lowered their oil demand forecasts for 2025, yet there is a strong outlook for the "three oil giants" (China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC) due to their low valuations, high dividends, and resilient performance [4] - The report also highlights opportunities in domestic substitutes for semiconductor materials and panel materials, as well as in the pesticide and fertilizer sectors [4] Group 4: Company-Specific Analysis - For Shida Shenghua, the report anticipates a decline in profitability for 2024 due to the low demand in the lithium battery sector, with net profits projected to drop significantly in 2025 and 2026 [5] - Despite this, the company is expanding its production capacity for electrolyte products, which may provide growth opportunities in the future [5] Group 5: Coal Industry - Lu'an Environmental Energy is recognized as a leading producer of injection coal, with a strong business model and high elasticity, despite current coal price declines [7] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 2.62 billion, 2.14 billion, and 3.03 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.87, 0.71, and 1.01 yuan [7] Group 6: High-End Manufacturing - Su Shi Testing is facing short-term performance pressure, with a projected revenue decline of 4.31% in 2024, but is expected to benefit from recovering downstream demand and new industry layouts [8] - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 3.04 billion, 3.81 billion, and 4.62 billion yuan, indicating potential recovery [8] Group 7: Renewable Energy - Guoneng Rixin is expected to maintain steady growth, with a projected net profit of 0.94 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 11.09% year-on-year increase [9] - The company is advancing its product upgrades and is well-positioned to meet increasing demand in the distributed energy sector [9] Group 8: Electrical Equipment - Huaming Equipment reported an 18.41% increase in revenue for 2024, with net profits rising by 13.25% [10] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence and is expected to achieve net profits of 7.09 billion, 8.09 billion, and 9.15 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [10] Group 9: Communication Technology - Hengwei Technology has revised its net profit forecasts downward for 2025 and 2026, but maintains a positive long-term growth outlook [11] - The projected net profits for 2027 are expected to reach 2.41 billion yuan, indicating potential recovery [11] Group 10: Beverage Industry - Dongpeng Beverage reported a strong start to 2025, with a revenue increase of 39.23% in Q1 and a net profit growth of 47.62% [12] - Future net profit projections for 2025-2027 are 4.483 billion, 5.684 billion, and 6.836 billion yuan, suggesting robust growth potential [12] Group 11: Catalyst and Advanced Materials - Zhongzi Technology's catalyst business is expected to benefit from the implementation of the National VII standards, with a strategic focus on high-end composite materials [13] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are -0.27 billion, 0.57 billion, and 2.38 billion yuan, indicating a potential turnaround [13]

Group 1: Market Insights - The defensive dividend assets in the stock market may become a core safe haven for funds amid the "tariff storm" [3] - The demand for U.S. Treasury bonds is weakening as the Trump administration proposes to replace short-term bonds with 100-year zero-coupon bonds [3][18] Group 2: Equity Market Analysis - Under the current tariff situation, risk assets are experiencing significant declines, while safe-haven assets are gaining, with the domestic 10-year government bond yield approaching 1.6% [3] - Chinese assets are expected to show resilience compared to global markets in the short term, with opportunities outweighing risks if policy responses are appropriate [4] - The consumer and investment sectors are expected to benefit from domestic demand policies, presenting short-term trading opportunities [4] Group 3: Sector Performance - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors have seen a rise of 3.18% due to increased domestic prices following U.S. tariffs on agricultural imports [10] - The power equipment and new energy sectors are underperforming due to concerns over profit impacts from trade conflicts [10] Group 4: Macro and Fixed Income - The monetary policy is expected to continue pushing nominal interest rates down, with potential acceleration in easing measures in the second quarter [16] - The domestic bond market is viewed positively, with expectations of further declines in bond yields as the economic impact of tariffs unfolds [16] Group 5: Asset Allocation Strategies - A neutral to defensive allocation strategy is recommended, emphasizing the importance of safe-haven assets like bonds and gold [20] - The A-share market should consider a combination of dividend/value and technology stocks in a barbell strategy, while being cautious of sectors with high overseas revenue exposure [20]