1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The US economic fundamentals still have the momentum to recover, and the Fed is expected to "hold steady" in June. Although the economic fundamentals are still recovering, they are disturbed by geopolitical risks and uncertainties in economic and trade prospects. The rebound of May's CPI data falling short of expectations supports the Fed's rate cut, but the soaring oil prices may prompt the Fed to send hawkish signals next week [6]. - Domestic macro: The national economy is operating steadily with progress. Fixed - asset investment continues to expand, manufacturing investment grows rapidly, service industry growth accelerates, and the year - on - year decline in commodity housing sales prices in all tiers of cities continued to narrow in May [6]. - Asset views: Domestically, there are mainly structural opportunities for assets, and the policy - driven logic is strengthened. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while in the long run, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals are on the path of recovery from the contraction in Q1. However, the recovery is limited by geopolitical and economic - trade uncertainties. The Fed is likely to maintain the current interest rate in June due to the balance between upper - limit constraints and lower - limit support [6]. - Domestic: In May, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. The service production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 6.4% year - on - year [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts are expected, and short - term fiscal policies will be implemented as planned [8]. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure is flattening, economic growth expectations are improving, and stagflation trading is cooling down [8]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Geopolitical impacts are fading, waiting for policies from the Lujiazui Forum. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Stock index options: Volatility has quickly bottomed out, mainly buying options. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Treasury bond futures: The yield curve is steepening. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: If the progress of China - US negotiations exceeds expectations, precious metals will continue to adjust in the short term. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: Macro sentiment is recovering, and prices are fluctuating at a low level. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Iron ore: Shipments and arrivals have decreased, and port inventories have slightly decreased. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Coke: Demand support is weak, and cost - driven increases are difficult to sustain. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Coking coal: Market sentiment has improved, but supply remains loose. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Ferrosilicon: Cost expectations have improved, and the price has risen from a low level. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Silicomanganese: Manganese ore supply is disrupted again, and the price has risen from a low level. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Glass: Demand is declining in the off - season, and spot prices are being adjusted downwards. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Soda ash: Supply is at a high level, and upstream inventories are accumulating. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The US dollar index is weak, and copper prices are at a high level. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Alumina: Spot prices are falling, and the futures price is under pressure. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Aluminum: There is still a risk of a short - squeeze in the short term, and aluminum prices are fluctuating at a high level. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Zinc: Inventories are slightly accumulating, and zinc prices are weakly fluctuating. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [8]. - Lead: Cost support is stable, and lead prices are fluctuating. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Nickel: LME nickel inventories have increased significantly, and nickel prices are weak in the short term. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [8]. - Stainless steel: Ferronickel prices continue to decline, and the futures price is weak. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Tin: There is no obvious driving force, and tin prices are fluctuating. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Industrial silicon: Supply is continuously increasing, and silicon prices are under pressure. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [8]. - Lithium carbonate: Supply and demand lack driving forces, and prices continue to fluctuate. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [8]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks are intensifying, and oil price fluctuations are increasing. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - LPG: Cost support is increasing, and LPG prices are rebounding following crude oil. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Asphalt: Crude oil prices have risen and then fallen, and asphalt futures prices are fluctuating. Short - term outlook is downward [11]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil prices have risen and then fallen. Short - term outlook is downward [11]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are following crude oil. Short - term outlook is downward [11]. - Methanol: Affected by the Iran - Israel situation, methanol prices have risen significantly. Short - term outlook is an upward - trending volatility [11]. - Urea: Affected by geopolitical factors and the start of domestic and foreign demand, the futures price is strong. Short - term outlook is an upward - trending volatility [11]. - Ethylene glycol: Port inventories are decreasing, and Iranian plants are shut down. Short - term outlook is an upward - trending volatility [11]. - PX: Supply - demand support is weakening, and short - term price depends on crude oil. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - PTA: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and it follows crude oil in the short term. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Short - fiber: Production is maintained, and weekly inventories are decreasing. Short - term outlook is an upward - trending volatility [11]. - Bottle chips: Multiple plants are under maintenance, and processing fees have bottomed out. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - PP: Oil prices have risen significantly, and the Middle East situation is uncertain. Short - term outlook is to wait and see [11]. - Plastic: It follows oil prices in the short term. Short - term outlook is to wait and see [11]. - Styrene: Crude oil prices have fallen, and styrene prices are weakly consolidating. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [11]. - PVC: Dynamic costs are rising, and PVC prices are fluctuating. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Caustic soda: It has low valuation and weak supply - demand. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Oils and fats: Macro and EPA proposals are beneficial to oils and fats. Short - term outlook is an upward - trending volatility [11]. - Protein meal: Hedging pressure has arrived as expected, and the futures price is facing adjustment. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Corn/Starch: The increase in spot prices has slowed down, and the futures price is weak. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Pig: It is the off - season for demand, and pig prices are restricted. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [11]. - Rubber: Market sentiment provides support, and the futures price is strongly fluctuating. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Synthetic rubber: The impact of geopolitical conflicts on sentiment still exists. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Pulp: The financial market atmosphere is soft, and pulp prices are rebounding. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [11]. - Cotton: The driving force is weak, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Sugar: Attention should be paid to the lower - level support. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Logs: As the delivery approaches, the game intensifies. Short - term outlook is volatile [11].

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - The oil market experienced a high opening but subsequently declined, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices dropping over 3% as of the report date [1][2] - On June 16, WTI crude peaked at $77.49 per barrel but did not surpass the previous high of $77.62 on June 13, indicating market volatility [2] - Trading activity increased significantly, with a notable rise in the turnover rate in futures and options markets, suggesting cautious sentiment among investors regarding short-term price surges [2][3] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks and Price Projections - Geopolitical risks are expected to keep oil prices elevated, but market participants remain wary of significant short-term increases [3] - Analysts predict that if global oil supply remains stable, prices may peak and then retreat, with a forecast range of $60 to $70 per barrel by the second half of 2025 [4] - A potential drastic decline in Iranian oil exports could shift market expectations, possibly raising prices to around $80 per barrel in the short term [4] Group 3: Defense and Military Sector Investment - Global capital is increasingly flowing into the defense and military sector, with significant outperformance compared to broader markets since April 8 [5] - The iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) has risen by 32%, while the STOXX Europe Aerospace & Defense ETF (EUAD) has increased by 35%, and the Korean PLUS Defense Index ETF (KDEF) has surged by 75% [5] - The recent inclusion of several military stocks into major indices is expected to attract additional passive investment, enhancing liquidity in the sector [6] Group 4: Chinese Military Equipment and Global Demand - The recent Paris Air Show highlighted China's military capabilities, with the J-10CE fighter jet gaining international attention [6] - The demand for advanced military equipment is rising globally due to geopolitical tensions, with Chinese military exports shifting towards high-tech, high-value products [6] - Analysts believe that China's technological advancements in military equipment could strengthen its competitive position in the global defense market [6]

Market Overview - Global markets are dominated by geopolitical conflicts, particularly the Israel-Iran situation, leading to a surge in safe-haven assets like oil and gold, with Brent crude rising by 9% to $75.18 per barrel and gold surpassing $3,452 per ounce[4] - The VIX index has rebounded, indicating increased market volatility, while A-shares have shown a decline in price but an increase in trading volume, with small-cap growth stocks outperforming[4] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Bonds: Maintain a focus on leverage and duration strategies supported by loose monetary policy, while closely monitoring central bank liquidity operations and U.S. CPI data[5] - Overseas equities: Overweight non-U.S. market assets, such as Hong Kong and South Korean stocks, to capitalize on a weaker dollar and resilient fundamentals[5] - Commodities: Overall underweight due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with a focus on specific commodities like oil that may experience price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions[7] Risk Factors - Key risks include policy adjustments, market volatility, geopolitical shocks, economic data validation risks, and liquidity transmission risks[6] Economic Indicators - The Chinese Business Conditions Index (BCI) recorded a slight increase to 50.30, indicating a marginal improvement but a significant drop from the March peak of 54.75, suggesting ongoing economic expansion challenges[40] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) expectations have reached new lows, indicating persistent price pressures at the production level, compounded by two consecutive months of negative CPI growth, reflecting weak consumer demand[49] Market Sentiment - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market increased by 13.1% to 1.341 trillion yuan, indicating heightened investor participation and a favorable liquidity environment for market valuation recovery[59] - The current valuation of A-shares is near historical averages, with the CSI 800's price-to-earnings ratio at the 48th percentile and price-to-book ratio at the 61st percentile, reflecting cautious optimism in economic fundamentals[64]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、 陈达飞、李欣越 联系人 | 李欣越 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 摘要 5月美国核心CPI弱于市场预期，失业金申领人数上升。 5月美国核心CPI环比0.1%，低于市场预期，其中 服装、新车大幅降温，家电、玩具等分项仍有所升温，美国CPI在三、四季度或仍将进入上行区间；截止 6月7日当周，美国失业金初申领人数24.8万人，高于市场预期。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；国内政策变化超预期。 报告正文 1 大类资产：美元指数大幅下跌，原油价格暴涨 当周，发达市场股指涨跌分化、新兴市场股指多数下跌。 发达市场股指，恒生指数上涨0.4%，德国 DAX、法国CAC40、道琼斯工业指数分别下跌3.2%、1.5%、1.3%；新兴市场股指，韩国综合指数、巴西 IBOVESPA指数分别上涨2.9%、0.8%，伊斯坦布尔证交所全国30指数、印度SENSEX30分别下跌1.8%、 1.3%。 图表 36: 当周，发达市场股指涨跌分化 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% - 0.0% -0.5% -0.4% -0.6% -1.0% -1.5% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The energy and chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [9]. - For each sub - sector, specific options strategies and suggestions are provided based on fundamental and market analysis of different underlying assets [9]. - The overall strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Underlying Futures Market Overview - Various energy and chemical option underlying futures are presented, including details such as the latest price, change, change rate, trading volume, and open interest. For example, crude oil (SC2508) has a latest price of 532, a change of 18, and a change rate of 3.50% [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - PCR indicators (volume PCR and open - interest PCR) are analyzed for different option varieties. These indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and potential turning points. For instance, the open - interest PCR of crude oil is 1.61 with a change of 0.39 [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels for different option underlying assets are determined from the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 560 and the support level is 450 [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data (including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, etc.) are provided for each option variety. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 41.58% [7]. 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions - **Crude Oil Options** - Fundamental analysis shows that US employment data is weak and geopolitical conflicts have increased the geopolitical premium of oil prices. The market has a short - term bullish upward trend. - Option factors indicate high implied volatility, strong long - term bullish power, with a pressure level of 560 and a support level of 450. - Strategies include constructing a bullish call spread for directional gains, a neutral short call + put option combination for time - value gains, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) Options** - Fundamental factors such as rising crude oil prices and increased summer oil consumption have affected the LPG market. The market shows an oversold rebound. - Option factors suggest that implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, and the short - term bearish power is weakening, with a pressure level of 5200 and a support level of 4000. - Strategies include a neutral short call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Methanol Options** - Port inventory has increased, and the market shows a weak bearish oversold rebound. - Option factors indicate that implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, and the bearish power above is weakening, with a pressure level of 2500 and a support level of 1975. - Strategies include a bullish call spread, a short call + put option combination with a long - biased delta, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Options** - Port inventory is expected to increase, and the market shows a short - term bullish rise followed by a decline. - Option factors suggest high implied volatility, a range - bound and relatively strong market, with a pressure level of 4500 and a support level of 4300. - Strategies include a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Polyolefin Options (Polypropylene, etc.)** - Polypropylene downstream开工率 is low, and inventory levels vary. The market shows a rebound in a bearish trend. - Option factors indicate that implied volatility is above the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is below 1.00, with a pressure level of 7500 and a support level of 6800. - Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Rubber Options** - Overseas production is not at a high level, and tire inventory is high. The market shows a bearish downward rebound. - Option factors suggest that implied volatility fluctuates around the average, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.60, with a pressure level of 21000 and a support level of 13000. - Strategies include a bearish put spread, a short call + put option combination with a short - biased delta [12]. - **Polyester Options (PTA, etc.)** - PTA inventory shows a short - term slowdown in destocking. The market shows a high - level shock and decline. - Option factors indicate high implied volatility, a strengthening market, with a pressure level of 5000 and a support level of 3800. - Strategies include a neutral short call + put option combination [13]. - **Caustic Soda Options** - Production has decreased, and inventory has increased. The market shows a bearish downward trend. - Option factors suggest that implied volatility is below the average, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.60, with a pressure level of 2520 and a support level of 2080. - Strategies include a bearish put spread, a short wide - straddle option combination, and a covered spot hedging strategy [14]. - **Soda Ash Options** - The spot market is weak, and the market shows a bearish low - level consolidation. - Option factors indicate that implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.50, with a pressure level of 1300 and a support level of 1100. - Strategies include a bearish put spread, a short call + put option combination with a short - biased delta, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]. - **Urea Options** - Inventory has increased, and prices have declined. The market shows an inverted "V" shape. - Option factors suggest that implied volatility is below the average, and the open - interest PCR is above 1.00, with a pressure level of 1900 and a support level of 1700. - Strategies include a bearish put spread, a short call + put option combination with a short - biased delta, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15].

Investment Strategy - Oil prices are expected to remain high due to limited supply and escalating geopolitical conflicts, particularly the recent Israel-Iran conflict which has led to a significant increase in oil prices [11][28][29] - Global oil and gas capital expenditures have been declining since 2015, with a notable reduction of nearly 122% from 2014 levels, leading to cautious investment from major oil companies [9][28] - The active rig count in the US remains low, which will slow down the release of oil and gas production capacity in the short term [9][28] Oil Market - Brent crude oil spot price increased to $70.96 per barrel, up 5.16% week-on-week, while WTI crude oil spot price rose to $67.89 per barrel, up 7.17% [11][30] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran, pose a risk of supply disruptions, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical for global oil transport [11][29] Coal Market - The average market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is reported at 609 RMB per ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.04% week-on-week, indicating weak terminal demand [12][13] - The overall coal market is under pressure due to weak demand from the cement and non-electric industries, with procurement activities remaining slow [12][13] Coking Coal Market - Coking coal prices have decreased, with the price for Jizhou coking coal reported at 1,310 RMB per ton, down 4.96% week-on-week, leading to increased losses for coking enterprises [14][15] - The supply of coking coal remains relatively ample, but demand from downstream steel mills is weak, contributing to a bearish market outlook [14][15] Natural Gas Market - Russia's natural gas exports to China are expected to increase by 7 billion cubic meters by 2025, driven by pipeline expansions [16] - The average price of NYMEX natural gas decreased to $3.55 per million British thermal units, down 4.7% week-on-week, while European gas prices have shown an upward trend [16][17] Oilfield Services - The oilfield services sector is experiencing a recovery due to increased capital expenditures driven by high oil prices and supportive government policies aimed at boosting oil and gas production [18][19] - The global active rig count decreased to 1,576 units, indicating a slight contraction in drilling activities, particularly in the Middle East [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The financial data in May is reasonably matched with the real - economy operation. The growth rates of social financing scale, M2, and RMB loans are significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate, and the overall financial support for the real economy remains stable. Fiscal and industrial policies work together with monetary policy to promote economic recovery [2][14]. - The real - estate market continues to consolidate its stabilization and recovery trend. The State Council Executive Meeting proposes to optimize policies and promote the real - estate market to stop falling and recover [13]. - The conflict between Iran and Israel intensifies, impacting the global market. Global funds are flowing into the crude - oil market, and the trading volume of US crude - oil options has soared [6]. - In the bond market, the Chinese bond market shows a slightly strong and volatile trend. The yields of most major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market decline, and the yields of European and US bonds generally rise [20][23][24]. - In the stock market, short - term events may provide investment opportunities. After sentiment recovery, internal factors will determine the market trend. The pan - technology direction and Hong Kong stocks are favored [30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - GDP in Q1 2025 had a year - on - year growth rate of 5.4%, the same as the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year. - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up from the previous month but the same as the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3%, slightly down from the previous month and lower than the same period last year. - In April 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.0%, 1.5%, and 8.0% respectively, with M0 and M2 increasing compared to the previous month and the same period last year, while M1 decreased slightly compared to the previous month but increased compared to the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The financial data in May is reasonably matched with the real - economy operation, and the financial support for the real economy remains stable [2]. - The CSRC solicits public opinions on the "Regulations on the Classification and Evaluation of Futures Companies (Draft for Comment)", optimizing the evaluation criteria and process [2]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange reminds investors to prevent risks and maintain market stability [2]. 3.2.2 Metals - Since 2025, the international gold price has risen rapidly. In May, the price fluctuated greatly, and recently it has risen again due to geopolitical tensions. The domestic gold - jewelry price has also started to rise [3]. - In May 2025, global physical gold ETFs had an outflow of about $1.8 billion, ending five consecutive months of inflows [3]. - As of June 12, the inventories of various metals on the London Metal Exchange, such as tin, copper, and aluminum, decreased to varying degrees [3][4]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that central - bank gold purchases will drive the gold price to reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4,000 per ounce by mid - 2026 [4]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of early June 2025, the circulation - field price of coke and rebar decreased month - on - month, with the coke price hitting a record low [5]. - Dundee Precious Metals will acquire silver - mine producer Adriatic Metals for about $1.251 billion [5]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Kuwait sets different prices for its crude oil sold to different regions in July [6]. - The conflict between Iran and Israel intensifies, and global funds are flowing into the crude - oil market. The trading volume of US crude - oil options has soared [6]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - As of June 15, the sales volume and price of live pigs of some listed breeding companies decreased month - on - month and year - on - year [8]. - The national summer - sown grain progress is over half, faster than in previous years [8]. - As of early June 2025, most agricultural - product prices in the national circulation field decreased, with the price of soybean meal hitting a new low since July 2020, while the price of soybeans increased [8][9]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 858.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 182 billion yuan of MLFs will mature. Last week, the central bank conducted 858.2 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 7.27 billion yuan in the open market [10][11]. - On June 13, the central bank conducted 202.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations, with a net injection of 6.75 billion yuan [11]. 3.3.2 Important News - The article by General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasizes the importance of formulating and implementing medium - and long - term plans for economic and social development [12]. - The real - estate market continues to consolidate its stabilization and recovery trend. The State Council Executive Meeting proposes to optimize policies to promote the real - estate market to stop falling and recover [13]. - The central bank will conduct 40 billion yuan of outright reverse - repurchases on June 16, providing medium - term liquidity support [15]. - Iran and Israel launch a new round of military strikes against each other, and China urges both sides to resolve disputes through dialogue [15][16]. - The central bank renews the bilateral local - currency swap agreement with the Central Bank of Turkey, and the total scale of swap agreements with other countries and regions reaches about 4.5 trillion yuan [16]. - Shanghai encourages state - owned and private enterprises to cooperate and develop a mixed - ownership economy [17]. - Hong Kong has become a safe haven for international funds, and the Hong Kong dollar will maintain the linked - exchange - rate system [18]. - Guangzhou proposes to reduce consumption restrictions and optimize real - estate policies [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market shows a slightly strong and volatile trend. The yields of most major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market decline, and the yields of European and US bonds generally rise [20][23][24]. - The prices of some bonds in the exchange - bond market rise and fall, and the convertible - bond index generally declines [21]. - The yields of national bonds and policy - bank bonds in the primary market are determined, and the repurchase - fixed - rate in the inter - bank market mostly rises [22]. 3.3.4 Foreign - Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rises, and the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar is raised. The US dollar index rises, and most non - US currencies fall [25]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huachuang Securities believes that the short - end bond market may be boosted by the growth of wealth - management scale in July. After the cross - quarter period, the CD pricing may approach 1.60% [26]. - Huafu Securities points out that factors such as large CD maturities and positive results of Sino - US trade negotiations may lead to an increase in bond yields, but the adjustment range is limited [26][27]. 3.4 Stock - Market Important News - On June 16, the regular adjustment of A - share indexes takes effect, involving multiple Shanghai, Shenzhen, and cross - market indexes [29]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange will implement the "Eight Measures for the Science and Technology Innovation Board" and support the development of science - and technology enterprises [30]. - The short - term decline caused by geopolitical events may provide investment opportunities. After sentiment recovery, the pan - technology direction and Hong Kong stocks are favored [30]. - Shenzhen may pilot the secondary listing of red - chip stocks, providing a more convenient listing channel for science - and technology enterprises [30]. - Brokerages focus on the valuation repair of Chinese assets in the A - share market in the second half of the year and are generally optimistic about the Hong Kong - stock market, especially the technology sector [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on June 16, 2025, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of different commodities such as power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, aiming to help investors understand the market situation and potential arbitrage opportunities [1][5][14][23][40][47]. 3. Summary by Category Power Coal - **Basis and Spread Data**: From June 9 to June 13, 2025, the basis of power coal was - 192.4 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 were all 0 [2]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The basis chart shows the relationship between the spot price of China's Shengli crude oil and the closing price of the active contract of INE crude oil [6]. - **Fuel Oil**: The basis chart presents the relationship between the FOB Singapore fuel oil spot price and the closing price of the active contract of fuel oil [7]. - **Chemicals**: Data on basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided. For example, on June 13, 2025, the basis of natural rubber was 25 yuan/ton, and the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2368 yuan/ton [10]. Black Metals - **Basis Data**: From June 9 to June 13, 2025, the basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal showed different values. For example, on June 13, the basis of rebar was 101.0 yuan/ton, and that of iron ore was 94.0 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for different delivery months and inter - variety spreads such as screw/ore, screw/coke, etc. are presented [15]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The basis data of domestic copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from June 9 to June 13, 2025 are provided. For example, on June 13, the basis of copper was 1080 yuan/ton [24]. - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are given [30]. Agricultural Products - **Basis, Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads**: Data on basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. are presented. For example, on June 13, 2025, the basis of soybean No.1 was - 161 yuan/ton, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 367 yuan/ton [38][40]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis and Inter - period Spreads**: The basis and inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures are provided. For example, on June 13, 2025, the basis of CSI 300 index futures was 7.78 [48].

Market Overview - Recent market activity has been characterized by significant volatility, particularly in gold, which experienced a price swing of over $100 in one day. This was preceded by a sharp decline of over $30 during the afternoon session, likely triggered by profit-taking from institutional positions near previous highs [1] - The subsequent rise in gold prices was largely driven by geopolitical tensions, specifically an Israeli attack on Iran, which spurred safe-haven buying. This was reflected in a simultaneous 7% increase in oil prices, indicating a strong correlation between geopolitical events and market movements [1] Upcoming Economic Events - The upcoming week is expected to feature major economic announcements, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the OPEC monthly report, which are critical for market participants [3][4] - The OPEC monthly report will provide insights into member countries' oil production, inventory, and export dynamics, serving as a key indicator for traders assessing future supply-demand balances in the oil market [4] Key Economic Indicators - On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision will be closely monitored, as the central bank's stance on its ultra-loose monetary policy could significantly impact the yen and broader market sentiment [6] - The U.S. retail sales data, known as "the terror data," will be released on the same day, directly reflecting consumer spending strength, which is a crucial component of GDP. Stronger-than-expected results could bolster the dollar and suppress gold prices, while weaker results may heighten market concerns about economic prospects [7] Oil Market Dynamics - On Wednesday, the EIA will release its weekly oil inventory report, which will provide a clear picture of supply-demand dynamics in the U.S. energy market. A significant drop in inventory levels typically indicates rising demand or constrained supply, which is bullish for oil prices [8] - Current market focus is on Middle Eastern geopolitical developments, U.S. shale oil recovery, and the pace of global demand recovery, all of which could influence OPEC's outlook for oil prices in the second half of the year [5] Federal Reserve and Bank of England Decisions - Thursday will feature the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which is anticipated to be a major market event. The accompanying dot plot and economic projections will be critical for understanding the Fed's future policy direction [10] - The Bank of England will also announce its interest rate decision on the same day, with potential for significant volatility in the pound if unexpected policy shifts occur [12] Trading Considerations - Traders are advised to be cautious during the upcoming week due to the anticipated volatility from major economic data releases. Proper position sizing and risk management strategies are essential to navigate the expected market fluctuations [17]

Group 1: Macro and Index Futures - The stock index futures market has shown certain volatility recently, with the main contracts rising to varying degrees. The trading volume and open interest have increased, indicating rising attention to small and medium - cap index products. However, the basis is generally at a discount, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. It is advisable to hold a light position and make low - level layouts [2]. Group 2: Crude Oil - The escalation of the Middle East situation has led to concerns about oil supply disruptions and driven up oil prices. Fundamentally, the approaching summer peak season and declining US inventories support price increases, but in the medium - term, the reaction of the Middle East situation and the outcome of the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation are crucial. OPEC+ plans to increase production in July. WTI should pay attention to the pressure around $78 per barrel, and in the long - term, the upside of oil prices is limited without major geopolitical impacts on supply [3]. Group 3: Gold - The Middle East conflict has broken the consolidation of international gold prices. On June 13, spot gold prices soared by 1.7% intraday, approaching the April high. Investors should pay attention to geopolitical situations, the Fed's FOMC meeting in July, and the US - EU tariff negotiation deadline. Gold prices may face technical corrections [4][5]. Group 4: Silver - Affected by the Middle East situation, silver prices rose but were restricted by industrial attributes. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver futures warehouse receipts decreased, and trade policy uncertainties suppressed industrial demand. Sprott's silver trust received a net inflow of $500 million. Silver prices are supported by geopolitical risks but may face technical overbought corrections. Attention should be paid to Iran's retaliatory actions, the Fed's FOMC meeting, and the US - EU tariff negotiation [6]. Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The price of PTA is supported by the rising cost of crude oil due to the Middle East situation, but the upside is limited. In June, PTA device maintenance and restart were concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 83.25%. The polyester and textile industries are in the off - season, and the market lacks positive stimuli. PTA supply and demand are in a tight balance, and it may fluctuate with the cost side in the short term [7]. Ethylene Glycol - The supply of ethylene glycol has increased slightly, with an overall operating load of 55.07%. The inventory in East China's main ports has decreased. The demand side is weak, and it may fluctuate with the cost side in the short term [8]. PVC - The supply of PVC has decreased slightly, and the demand from downstream enterprises has not improved significantly. The social inventory has decreased. The futures price is affected by market sentiment and may oscillate at a low level due to weak fundamentals [9][10]. PP - The supply of PP has increased, with the average capacity utilization rate rising to 78.64%. The demand from downstream industries has decreased slightly, and the inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate at a low level due to weak demand [11][12]. Plastic - The supply of plastic has increased, with the production enterprise capacity utilization rate rising to 79.17%. The demand from downstream industries has decreased, and the inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate in the short term due to weak fundamentals [13]. Soda Ash - The supply of soda ash has increased, with the overall operating rate rising to 84.9%. The factory inventory has increased, and the social inventory has decreased. The demand is average, and the futures price may continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [14]. Glass - The supply of glass has remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease in weekly output. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the pressure during the rainy season cannot be ignored. The demand is weak, and the futures price may oscillate weakly in the short term [15][16]. Rubber - The price of rubber is affected by the repeated trade war situation and the oversupply fundamentals. The domestic and Southeast Asian production areas are in the harvest season, and the supply is abundant. The downstream tire operating rate has decreased. Rubber may show a pattern of slow rise and sharp fall under weak fundamentals [17]. Methanol - The spot price of methanol has decreased, while the futures price has increased. The port inventory has increased, and the supply pressure is high. The demand from the MTO device has recovered, but the traditional downstream demand is in the off - season. The futures price may oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation speed and the impact of the Middle East situation on oil prices [18]. Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA's June report has limited positive support. Domestically, the corn market is in the transition period between old and new grains, with a potential shortage of supply. Wheat may replace corn in the feed field, and weather may affect prices. The downstream demand is weak. Corn may oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan per ton in the short term [19]. Peanut - In the long - term, the domestic peanut planting area is expected to increase in 2025. Currently, the market is in the inventory consumption period, with low inventory levels. The demand is in the off - season, and the price may be pushed up by restocking demand. The short - term price may weaken, and attention should be paid to the support at 8200 yuan per ton [20]. Cotton - The US cotton planting and budding rates are slightly slower than in previous years. In the long - term, the cotton supply is expected to be abundant, and the price may remain low. Currently, the import is low, and the commercial inventory is lower than usual, providing support. The downstream textile market is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. Cotton may oscillate strongly in the short term [21]. Pig - The government's reserve release has sent a positive signal, but the market supply is sufficient, and the consumer demand is weak. The futures contract 2509 should pay attention to whether it can break through the upper pressure level of 14000, and the pig slaughter situation needs continuous attention [22]. Egg - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to high laying - hen inventory. The demand is weak due to difficult storage in hot and humid weather. The current futures price is undervalued, and it is recommended to wait and see [23]. Soybean No. 2 - The market has digested the positive impact of the China - US trade talks. The USDA's June report is neutral. The US soybean planting is progressing smoothly, and the Brazilian soybean is in the peak export season. It may oscillate in the short term [24][25]. Soybean Meal - The global geopolitical situation is unstable. The market has digested the China - US trade talks. The US soybean planting is good, and the Brazilian soybean is in the export peak. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean meal is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. It may oscillate in the short term [26]. Soybean Oil - The international oil price increase has driven up the domestic soybean oil market. The US soybean planting is progressing well, and the Brazilian soybean is in the export peak. Domestically, the oil - mill operating rate is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory pressure is increasing. It may oscillate strongly in the short term [27]. Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The complexity of the 2025 interest - rate cut path, global tariff conflicts, and the Middle East risk may affect market sentiment. Domestically, policy support is strong. The copper market is in a stage of resonance, and it is advisable to hold for now, with the defense line moved to the lower neckline of the island pattern [28]. Shanghai Aluminum - The macro - sentiment is boosted by the China - US economic and trade consultation and the US interest - rate cut expectation. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate within a range [29][30]. Alumina - The supply of alumina is sufficient, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory has increased slightly. The price is under pressure, and the futures contract 2509 may show a weak adjustment trend [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is supported by the tight scrap - aluminum market, but the supply is excessive. The demand from the new - energy vehicle industry may slow down in the second half of the year. The inventory is relatively high, and the futures contract 2511 may operate weakly [32]. Lithium Carbonate - The raw - material prices in the lithium industry chain have stabilized, and the supply is stable with a structural adjustment. The demand is weak. The market may continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and it is recommended that conservative investors wait and see, while aggressive investors can conduct range operations [33]. Industrial Silicon - The supply of industrial silicon has increased slightly, and the demand is weak. The inventory digestion is slow, and the price is under pressure. Aggressive investors can short at high prices [34]. Polysilicon - The supply of polysilicon is stable, and the demand is weak overall. The export volume has decreased. The market supply - demand contradiction is still prominent, and the futures contract 2507 may oscillate, with attention paid to the previous low - point support [35]. Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - The technical trend of stainless steel may shift from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation. The cost support is weak, the supply pressure remains, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [36]. Rebar - The rebar futures may shift from a resistive decline to an oscillation under a high basis. The cost is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to take a light - position, low - level, long - biased approach in the short term [37]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The technical trend of hot - rolled coil is stabilizing. The cost is stable, the apparent demand has recovered, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to take a light - position, low - level, long - biased approach in the short term [38]. Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore has increased, and the demand has decreased slightly. The port inventory is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory pressure is emerging. The market sentiment is boosted by the easing of China - US tariffs, but the export sustainability is uncertain. The futures contract 2509 may oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the inventory digestion speed and the steel - mill restart rhythm [39][40]. Coal Mine - The supply of coking coal is expected to contract due to production accidents and new regulations. The demand for coking coal and coke is weak. The futures contracts of coking coal and coke may oscillate recently, and attention should be paid to the steel - mill inventory digestion and policy implementation [41].