1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, and nickel on January 12, 2026 [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 12, 2026, the domestic spot price was 100330, the LME price was 12915, and the ratio was 7.79. The three - month domestic price was 101580, the LME price was 12873, and the ratio was 7.83. The equilibrium ratio for spot imports was 7.92, with a loss of 1676.26, and the profit for spot exports was 962.00 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 24040, the LME price was 3109, and the ratio was 7.73. The three - month domestic price was 24015, the LME price was 3153, and the ratio was 5.50. The equilibrium ratio for spot imports was 8.35, with a loss of 1902.57 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 24030, the LME price was 3136, and the ratio was 7.66. The three - month domestic price was 24385, the LME price was 3128, and the ratio was 7.73. The equilibrium ratio for spot imports was 8.33, with a loss of 2107.33 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 137250, the LME price was 17279, and the ratio was 7.94. The equilibrium ratio for spot imports was 8.01, with a loss of 640.56 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17200, the LME price was 1996, and the ratio was 8.60. The three - month domestic price was 17395, the LME price was 2040, and the ratio was 11.74. The equilibrium ratio for spot imports was 8.54, with a profit of 132.82 [3] Cross - period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 12, 2026, the differences between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 440, 610, 670, and 610 respectively, while the theoretical differences were 607, 1112, 1626, and 2139 [3] - **Zinc**: The differences were 40, 85, 120, and 135, and the theoretical differences were 223, 351, 480, and 609 [3] - **Aluminum**: The differences were 545, 600, 635, and 670, and the theoretical differences were 230, 361, 492, and 623 [3] - **Lead**: The differences were 60, 100, 125, and 140, and the theoretical differences were 211, 319, 426, and 534 [3] - **Nickel**: The differences between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 3090, 3220, 3580, and 3900 [3] - **Tin**: The difference between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts was 90, and the theoretical difference was 7248 [3] Spot - futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The differences between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 730 and 1170 respectively, while the theoretical differences were 275 and 893 [3] - **Zinc**: The differences were - 110 and - 70, and the theoretical differences were 83 and 223 (or 64 and 285) [3] - **Lead**: The differences were 95 and 155, and the theoretical differences were 109 and 224 [3] Cross - variety Arbitrage Tracking - On January 12, 2026, the cross - variety ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc were 4.23, 4.17, 5.84, 1.02, 1.40, and 0.72 in Shanghai and 4.12, 4.14, 6.34, 0.99, 1.53, and 0.65 in London [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered a "volatile" phase since mid-December 2025, driven by reduced overseas uncertainties, a stronger RMB, and intensive policy support in various industries [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The reduction of overseas uncertainties is attributed to the outcomes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike [1] - The appreciation of the RMB enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets, creating favorable conditions for a recovery in market risk appetite [1] - There is a significant influx of funds into the market, with the A500 ETF experiencing rapid capital inflow and the margin trading balance surpassing 2.6 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on "two main lines + two auxiliary lines" for investment strategies [1] - Main Line 1 emphasizes opportunities in technology innovation and growth sectors, particularly in key areas such as artificial intelligence, embodied intelligence, new energy, controllable nuclear fusion, quantum technology, and aerospace [1] - Main Line 2 highlights the gradual implementation of anti-involution policies, with a clear profit recovery path in the manufacturing and resource sectors, recommending attention to industries like non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and power equipment [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up by 0.55%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.88%, with notable gains in tech stocks like Meituan and Baidu, both increasing over 2% [1] - Lithium stocks showed strong performance, with Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium both rising over 4%, while the precious metals sector also strengthened, with Zijin Mining up nearly 3% and China Aluminum increasing over 2% [1] - Citic Securities anticipates a second round of valuation recovery and performance resurgence in the Hong Kong stock market by 2026, driven by internal "15th Five-Year Plan" catalysts and external economic stimulus [1] Group 2 - Zheshang International views the fundamentals of the Hong Kong stock market as still weak, with a slight decline in the funding environment, but maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for the mid-term market trends [2] - The firm highlights sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, including new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI technology, as well as low-valuation state-owned enterprises [2] - The expected performance of the Hong Kong stock market in spring 2026 is projected to be driven by "AI applications, PPI improvement, and expanded domestic demand," with a recommendation to focus on quality stocks in these areas [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The market is characterized by a game between industrial and secondary funds, with a wide - range volatile movement [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The price center of gravity is lifted by nickel - iron, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate: Tariff adjustments are beneficial to short - term demand, and the market is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile state [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: Attention should be paid to the downstream production cut situation [2]. - Polysilicon: The market will move within a range [2][13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Data on nickel and stainless - steel futures, including closing prices, trading volumes, and various price differentials of related products in the industrial chain, are presented. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 139,090, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 13,860 [5]. - **News**: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses, China has implemented export license management for some steel products, Indonesia may revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore, plan to cut nickel ore production, and some mines face potential fines [5][6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamentals**: Comprehensive data on lithium carbonate futures, including closing prices, trading volumes, and various price differentials in the industrial chain, are provided. For instance, the closing price of the 2601 contract is 138,700 [10]. - **News**: SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price has increased, 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate from Hainan Mining's Mali Buguni lithium mine have arrived at Yangpu Port, and there are changes in the export tax - rebate policies for photovoltaic and battery products [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [12]. Polysilicon and Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Data on industrial silicon and polysilicon futures, including closing prices, trading volumes, price differentials, and inventory levels, are shown. For example, the closing price of the Si2605 contract is 8,715, and the closing price of the PS2605 contract is 51,300 [13]. - **News**: Japan's TOYO has signed a supply agreement with a US polysilicon manufacturer, and there are details about the polysilicon production capacity in the US [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the implementation of a comprehensive policy package by the State Council to stimulate domestic demand through financial and fiscal collaboration, including various loan subsidy policies and support for private enterprises [2][9] - The A-share market indices continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 3.82% at 4120.43 points and the ChiNext Index up 3.89%, indicating a positive market sentiment [2][9] - The average daily trading volume in the stock market surged to 2.83 trillion yuan, with margin trading balances increasing by 78.6 billion yuan, reflecting heightened investor activity [2][9] Group 2 - In the futures market, there was a noticeable increase in both trading volume and open interest for stock index futures compared to the previous week, indicating growing market engagement [3][10] - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved a 16-day consecutive rise, with trading volume surpassing 3 trillion yuan, a rare occurrence in historical terms, suggesting a strong bullish trend [4][11] - The current market position is viewed as having high cost-effectiveness, with recommendations to focus on long positions in stock index futures strategies [11]

Group 1 - The core of the recent A-share market rally is driven by a combination of policy expectations, industry trends, capital flow, and market sentiment, indicating a multi-dimensional resonance [2][3] - The influx of capital is evident, with significant net inflows from northbound funds and daily trading volumes increasing from 1.7 trillion yuan to over 3 trillion yuan, creating a positive feedback loop in the market [2][3] - Institutional investors are adopting a dual strategy of offensive and defensive positions, focusing on sectors like AI and cyclical industries while also ensuring safety margins in their portfolios [5][6][7] Group 2 - The market outlook remains optimistic as institutions expect the spring rally to continue, with a focus on high-growth areas such as AI applications, commercial aerospace, and innovative pharmaceuticals [8][9] - Personal investors are advised to rely on professional management, focus on long-term trends, and utilize standardized investment tools like ETFs to mitigate selection difficulties [9][10] - The current market environment emphasizes the importance of maintaining investment discipline and avoiding emotional trading, with a call for investors to set clear profit and loss thresholds [9][10][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing a significant bull run, with prices rising and profits expected to increase substantially [3][7]. - Non-ferrous metal prices have not peaked yet, indicating that as long as product prices remain high or continue to rise, the non-ferrous ETF (159876) will likely continue to appreciate [7]. - Domestic non-ferrous companies are undergoing a value reassessment due to the Belt and Road Initiative, with many companies acquiring mines abroad that are now coming into production, leading to increased profits and a reassessment of asset values [8]. Group 2 - The non-ferrous ETF (159876) tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Index, which focuses on leading companies in the non-ferrous metal sector, with the top ten companies accounting for approximately 48% of the index [8]. - The index covers a wide range of industries, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, making it suitable for retail investors looking for comprehensive exposure to all metal categories [9]. - The non-ferrous ETF (159876) and its associated off-market fund (017141) are considered optimal choices for investing in the super cycle of non-ferrous metals [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the metal and mining industry, indicating a favorable outlook for investment opportunities [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in industrial metals driven by "Monroeism" sentiment, alongside expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a trend of copper hoarding in the U.S. [2][5]. - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are experiencing a recovery phase, with a focus on the resilience of gold stocks amid geopolitical tensions and fluctuating interest rate expectations [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of sector allocation, particularly in copper and aluminum, as they are expected to benefit from macroeconomic trends and supply-demand dynamics [5][6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold stocks are showing signs of recovery, with a notable shift from a previous stagnation in performance relative to gold prices. The report anticipates continued upward pressure on gold prices due to ongoing recession fears and weak inflation and employment data [4]. - Silver is expected to outperform due to macroeconomic conditions and a favorable trading structure, with a recommendation to focus on silver stocks for their potential elasticity [4]. Industrial Metals - The report notes a strong performance in copper and aluminum, with copper prices rising by 4.3% and aluminum by 3.8% during the week. This is attributed to increased inventories and a favorable macroeconomic backdrop [5][24]. - The report suggests that the copper and aluminum sectors are well-positioned for a spring rally, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and supply disruptions due to geopolitical factors [5][6]. Energy and Strategic Metals - The report identifies lithium as a key area for investment, with expectations of a supply-demand turning point and strong pricing trends. The strategic value of rare earths and tungsten is also highlighted, particularly in light of export controls and geopolitical tensions [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of positioning in cobalt and nickel, with expectations of long-term price increases due to supply constraints and rising demand [6].

（原标题：利好！上市公司，密集公告！） 今日关注 近90家A股上市公司发布2025年年度业绩预告 17家净利同比预增上限超100% 两部门：4月1日起 取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税 证监会较大幅度提高证券期货违法行为"吹哨人"奖励 最高奖励100万元 重要的消息有哪些 1.全国商务工作会议：加快培育服务消费新增长点 优化消费品以旧换新政策实施 全国商务工作会议1月10日至11日在京召开。会议指出，2026年全国商务系统要重点做好八个方面工作：一是深入实施提振消费专项行动，打 造"购在中国"品牌。加快培育服务消费新增长点，释放服务消费潜力。优化消费品以旧换新政策实施，推动商品消费扩容升级。打造国际化消费 环境。发展数字消费、绿色消费、健康消费，激发下沉市场消费活力。二是健全现代市场和流通体系，推进全国统一大市场建设。加强制度保 障，优化设施载体，推动零售业创新发展，完善现代商贸流通体系，深入推进试点城市建设。推进内外贸一体化。三是推动贸易创新发展，打 响"出口中国"品牌。优化升级货物贸易，大力发展服务贸易，鼓励服务出口，创新发展数字贸易、绿色贸易，促进贸易投资一体化。四是塑造吸 引外资新优势，擦亮"投资中国"品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent bullish trend in the A-share market, highlighting a significant increase in trading activity and investor sentiment, particularly in the context of a "spring market rally" that has historical precedence [10][21]. Market Performance - As of January 7, the margin trading balance in the A-share market reached 26,047 billion yuan, marking a historic high [4]. - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved a rare "16 consecutive days of gains," setting a record for the longest winning streak in its history [6][21]. - From early December to January 9, the Shanghai Composite Index rose approximately 5.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index increased by about 7.41% and 7.58%, respectively [8]. Investor Behavior - There is a noticeable increase in discussions about stocks among the public, indicating heightened interest in the market [5]. - The influx of new investors is evident, with 2.5967 million new accounts opened in December 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.55% [8]. Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed positive signs, with December 2025 recording the best performance of the year [11]. - The CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, indicating a return to positive growth [11]. Sector Performance - In 2025, the non-ferrous metals sector led the industry with a remarkable annual increase of 94.73%, while the food and beverage sector saw a decline of 9.69% [9]. - The aerospace equipment sector experienced a significant rise of approximately 146%, with many commercial space stocks seeing gains exceeding 100% [9]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the current market rally may signal a new phase for the stock market, with expectations for continued strength in technology sectors and a gradual recovery in traditional industries [20][22]. - The anticipated "spring market" may extend into 2026, with a focus on technology innovation and consumption recovery as key investment themes [22][23]. - The article emphasizes the importance of patience and strategic investment in quality stocks, particularly as regulatory measures against financial misconduct are expected to tighten [27].