Core Viewpoint - The legislative process of the Value-Added Tax (VAT) Law has focused on the issue of input tax deduction for loan services, which directly impacts corporate financing costs and tax burdens. The VAT Law will take effect on January 1, 2026, with the implementation regulations published on December 30, 2025, clarifying current rules and leaving room for future policy optimization [1]. Group 1: Loan Service Input Tax Deduction - The current VAT system has prohibited the deduction of input tax on loan services, which has been a contentious issue, particularly for capital-intensive industries like finance and real estate, increasing corporate financing costs [2]. - The deletion of the prohibition on input tax deduction for loan services in the VAT Law aligns with the logic of VAT reform and signals a positive policy adjustment, allowing companies to reasonably expect future deductions [2][3]. - The implementation regulations maintain the current prohibition on input tax deduction for loan services, indicating that there will be no comprehensive opening in the short term, which has garnered widespread attention from businesses [3]. Group 2: Future Policy Optimization - The temporary nature of the current prohibition on loan service deductions is emphasized, with a commitment from fiscal and tax authorities to evaluate the policy's effectiveness over time, suggesting potential future adjustments based on economic conditions and administrative capabilities [4]. - The legislative framework allows for easier policy adjustments at the State Council level without needing to amend the law, which could facilitate gradual opening of deductions based on industry and scenario trials [4]. Group 3: Non-Compensated Lending - The new VAT Law provides significant benefits by removing the requirement for non-compensated loans to be treated as taxable sales, which previously applied only to non-group enterprises [5][6]. - Starting January 1, 2026, non-compensated loans between enterprises will no longer fall under the VAT taxable scope, significantly reducing the tax burden associated with such transactions [6]. - Companies must remain aware that corporate income tax policies remain unchanged, and non-compensated loans must adhere to independent transaction principles to avoid tax complications [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Report's Core View - The report constructs a multi - dimensional analysis framework based on long - term expectations, medium - term cycles, and short - term shocks to systematically sort out the core driving forces and future trends of US inflation [3]. - The Fed's "risk - management style" rate cuts will not restructure the inflation pattern as this round of cuts occurs in a non - recession environment and is more about maintaining economic resilience rather than causing a significant rebound in inflation [3]. - Long - term inflation expectations are anchored, and the Fed's independence remains a key stabilizer, with limited risk of long - term inflation getting out of control [3]. - Endogenous inflation momentum is slowing, and most structural sub - items show downward pressure, except for possible mild rebounds in durables and core services (excluding rent) inflation [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Inflation Analysis's Three - Dimensional Framework: Long - term Expectations, Core Dynamics, and Short - term Shocks - The Fed assesses inflation trends through a three - dimensional framework: long - term inflation expectations, core inflation, and short - term price shocks [11]. - Long - term inflation is anchored by monetary policy through expectations, core inflation's mid - term fluctuations are driven by the economic cycle, and external factors cause short - term disturbances [12]. - Long - term inflation expectations are the core pillar of the Fed's inflation management, core inflation reflects the domestic demand and labor market, and short - term shocks are usually temporary and exogenous [13]. - "Risk - management style" rate cuts generally do not lead to a significant inflation rebound based on historical experience and logical reasons [20][21]. 2. Is the Fed's Long - term Inflation Anchor Failing? - Although inflation has been persistently above the Fed's 2% target, the 5 - year/5 - year forward break - even inflation rate shows that the market's long - term inflation expectations remain stable [33]. - A quantitative model shows that the Fed's 2% inflation target has played a decisive role in guiding and stabilizing market expectations, and currently, the market may overestimate Trump's short - term impact on the Fed's independence [36][40]. 3. Reconstructing US Inflation Analysis: A Six - Sub - item Analysis Framework 3.1 Food and Beverage: Obvious Dual - Factor Drive of Commodity and Labor Costs - The cost of US food mainly concentrates on the middle and lower reaches of processing and circulation. The CRB food index and salary growth indicators are in a downward trend, so the food sub - item's upward momentum for overall inflation will weaken [3][51]. 3.2 Energy: Inflation Thrust Easing under Changing Supply - Demand Patterns - Energy has a significant impact on overall inflation. In 2025 - 2026, the global crude oil market's supply growth is expected to exceed demand, reducing the risk of a significant upward movement in US inflation [3][56][58]. 3.3 Rent: Lags US Housing Prices by about 15 Months - Rent is a key driver of CPI. In 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of rent is expected to slow to about 2.88%, leading to a 0.3% decline in overall inflation [3][71]. 3.4 Durables: May Face Some Upward Pressure in 2026 - Durables inflation may face upward pressure in 2026, but the pulling effect on inflation is expected to be mild due to the slowdown in the job market and consumer pressure [3][88]. 3.5 Non - durables: Obvious Cost - Driven Characteristics - Non - durables demand is rigid, and prices are mainly cost - driven. Based on the prediction of a decline in the crude oil price center in 2026, non - durables inflation is expected to cool down or fluctuate narrowly [91]. 3.6 Core Services: The Labor Market is the Core Driver - Core services inflation (excluding rent) is mainly driven by the labor market's tightness. Currently, the labor market is demand - driven, and there is no sustainable upward momentum for this type of inflation [3][111].

Group 1 - Alibaba-W (09988) increased by over 4.7% following the announcement of an investigation into the competitive landscape of the food delivery platform service industry by the State Council's Anti-Monopoly and Anti-Unfair Competition Committee [1] - Jiumaojiu (09922) rose nearly 3% after reporting a decline in same-store daily sales for its brands, with Taier, Songhuo Hotpot, and Jiumaojiu showing year-on-year decreases of 3.0%, 19.0%, and 16.4% respectively [2] - Xixiangfeng Group (02473) surged over 8% after announcing a strategic cooperation agreement with New Stone Technology, focusing on areas such as autonomous vehicle procurement and market promotion [3] - COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) increased by over 7.2% due to reports of the U.S. government's indefinite control over Venezuelan oil circulation and sales [4] Group 2 - Weilong Delicious (09985) rose over 2% as Goldman Sachs highlighted management's guidance for over 15% year-on-year revenue growth in FY2025, with a net profit margin between 18% and 20% [5] - Li Fu China (02136) surged by over 26.8% after announcing a board meeting to consider and approve the declaration of a special dividend to shareholders [6] - Kuaishou-W (01024) increased by over 5.8%, with a cumulative rise of over 20% in the month, driven by the popularity of its AI features on global social media platforms [7] - CATL (03750) fell nearly 3% as lithium carbonate prices surged past multiple thresholds, reaching 150,000 yuan per ton [8] Group 3 - Yidu Tech (02158) saw its stock price rise by over 8.8% after the approval of a key laboratory for the development of a multi-modal intelligent diagnosis and treatment system [9] - LFG Investment Holdings (03938) skyrocketed over 123.6% after announcing the transfer of 61.43% equity from its former major shareholder to an independent third party [10] Group 4 - Aktis Oncology (AKTS.US) debuted on the U.S. market with a rise of over 24.44%, focusing on developing alpha particle radiopharmaceuticals for common solid tumors [5] - Atlas Critical Minerals (ATCX.US) fell 41.33% after transitioning from OTCQB to NASDAQ, despite being an upgrade [6] - Critical Metals (CRML.US) rose 11.17%, with significant gains over the past week, driven by the approval of a new facility in Greenland [7] - Semiconductor equipment and materials stocks saw a broad increase, with ASML (ASML.US) reaching a historical high [8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective rise in the three major indices, with significant gains in specific sectors such as cultural media, military electronics, and IT services, while sectors like oil and gas extraction, coal mining, and agricultural chemicals faced declines [1][2]. Sector Performance - The cultural media sector led the gains with an increase of 7.38%, achieving a total transaction volume of 55,109.3 million hands and a net inflow of 7.5041 billion [2]. - The military electronics sector rose by 7.00%, with a transaction volume of 29,591.8 million hands and a net inflow of 8.976 billion [2]. - The IT services sector saw a 6.78% increase, with a total transaction volume of 56,174.0 million hands and a net inflow of 10.3679 billion [2]. - Other notable sectors with positive performance included software development (6.12%), film and cinema (5.82%), and gaming (5.55%) [2]. Declining Sectors - The oil and gas extraction and services sector experienced a decline of 0.60%, with a transaction volume of 11,090.9 million hands and a net outflow of 0.626 billion [2]. - The coal mining and processing sector fell by 0.38%, with a transaction volume of 8,006.8 million hands and a net outflow of 1.129 billion [2]. - The agricultural chemicals sector decreased by 0.33%, with a transaction volume of 11,814.7 million hands and a net outflow of 1.559 billion [2].

Core Insights - The report addresses three core issues: the interaction between credit restart and capital expenditure dual peaks driving physical pricing recovery, the asymmetric game among the credit systems of the US, Japan, and China, and the asset allocation recommendations under credit stratification [4]. Group 1: Credit Cycle and Capital Expenditure - 2026 is identified as a critical year for the global monetary pulse to convert into physical output, with four driving factors initiating a new credit cycle [6]. - The dual peaks of capital expenditure in 2024 and 2026 will create a resonance effect, where excess funds meet scarce physical resources, leading to nonlinear premiums and sources of excess profits [6][8]. - The credit cycle is described as the "entry ticket" for asset allocation, determining financing costs and flows, while capital expenditure peaks serve as verification points for asset premiums [10][12]. Group 2: Asymmetric Game in Global Credit Matrix - The global market has developed an interdependent yet unbalanced credit function division: the US drives demand through administrative rate cuts and fiscal subsidies, Japan acts as a "gatekeeper" by raising credit thresholds and interest rates, and China fills the physical gap as a "deflationary dividend" provider [6][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting assets with high interest coverage ratios (ICR) and return on invested capital (ROIC) in the US stock market, while focusing on resilient dividend blue chips in Japan and high-end manufacturing export chains in China [6][8]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on "physical rigidity" and cash flow resilience in asset selection, indicating a shift from liquidity-driven strategies to fundamental alpha [5][12]. - In the US, the strategy should prioritize cyclical blue chips and AI applications, while Japan's focus should be on value re-evaluation opportunities amid credit detoxification [89]. - For A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, the emphasis is on high-end manufacturing to leverage China's supply chain efficiency and obtain global premiums [89][90].

Domestic Demand - In December 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles in China were 2.296 million units, down 13% year-on-year, compared to a 7% decline in November[2] - Retail sales of major home appliances decreased by 28.5% year-on-year as of January 2, 2026, but improved by 8.4 percentage points from the previous value[2] - The volume of postal express deliveries decreased by 0.9% year-on-year as of January 4, 2026, a decline of 2 percentage points from the previous value[2] - Daily box office revenue for movies was 53.55 million yuan, down 26.3% year-on-year as of January 9, 2026[2] Industrial Sector - The Nanhua Industrial Index rose by 2.4% this week, with the black materials index up 2.7% and the non-ferrous metals index up 5.3%[4] - Daily average pig iron production and cement clinker capacity utilization rates increased, while the apparent demand for major steel products declined[4] - New home sales in 30 major cities fell by 38.4% year-on-year as of January 9, 2026, a decrease of 7.4 percentage points from the previous week[4] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 1.1% year-on-year as of January 4, 2026, but this was a decline of 0.9 percentage points from the previous value[4] - Container throughput at ports rose by 7.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value[4] - South Korea's export value increased by 13.4% year-on-year in December, up 5 percentage points from November[4] Price Trends - The price of rebar futures increased by 0.7%, while spot prices rose by 0.6% this week[4] - Coking coal futures prices increased by 7.2%, with Shanxi coking coal spot prices remaining stable[4] - The agricultural product wholesale price index decreased slightly by 0.4% this week[4]

Summary of Conference Call on Real Estate Industry and Company Transformation Industry Overview - The report focuses on the transformation of the real estate industry in China towards asset management, driven by ongoing policy changes emphasizing high-quality housing development and operational real estate business [2][4] - The industry is at a dual turning point of urbanization and financial market development, with a consensus on the need for real estate companies to explore asset management as a necessary direction [4][5] Key Insights - **Historical Context**: The transformation of real estate companies into asset management firms has been primarily driven by financial deepening over the past 40 years, particularly in Western economies, while Asian markets are still in the early stages of this transition [3][10] - **China's Position**: China is expected to see a significant shift in real estate focus from traditional development to asset management, especially during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, which is anticipated to be crucial for institutional development [4][49] - **Challenges**: The pace of transformation in China's real estate sector is slower than expected, with companies facing challenges in their ability to adapt [5][49] Financial Dynamics - The report highlights that the real estate sector's contribution to GDP has been declining, with a shift towards financial mechanisms and asset management becoming more prominent [10][11] - The debt accumulation in the real estate sector has been manageable, but fluctuations in debt levels and asset prices have historically led to economic volatility [11][12] Structural Changes - The report discusses the need for a comprehensive process of transformation, including organizational restructuring and capability enhancement, as companies move from traditional development to asset management [4][19] - The emergence of new asset types in the REITs market, such as logistics and data centers, reflects the evolving landscape of real estate investment [14][28] Comparative Analysis - **International Examples**: The report draws comparisons between the evolution of real estate companies in the U.S., Japan, and Singapore, noting that U.S. firms have successfully transitioned to asset management platforms, while Japanese firms remain more conservative and focused on domestic markets [25][39] - **East vs. West**: There are significant differences in the development stages of real estate companies between East Asian and Western markets, with East Asian firms often maintaining a mixed business model while Western firms tend to specialize [20][23] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the future of the real estate market in China will focus on managing existing assets and enhancing the quality of new developments, with urban renewal becoming a key area of opportunity [50][51] - The balance between rental and purchase markets is expected to shift, leading to a more stable housing market and potentially higher asset prices [51][52] Risks and Considerations - The report warns of potential risks associated with the slow pace of transformation and the challenges posed by existing market structures and regulatory environments [5][49] - It emphasizes the importance of developing a robust asset management framework to navigate the complexities of the evolving real estate landscape in China [49][50]

证券研究报告 2026.01.11 2025 全年二手房库销水平维持稳定 李昊 分析员 张宇 分析员 徐曼迪 联系人 SAC 执证编号：S0080522070007 SFC CE Ref：BSI853 hao5.li@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080512070004 SFC CE Ref：AZB713 eric.zhang@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080124070018 mandi.xu@cicc.com.cn 纵轴：相对值（%） 91 100 109 118 127 136 2025-01 2025-04 2025-07 2025-10 2026-01 沪深300 中金房地产 | 股票 | 股票 | 目标 | P/E (x) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 评级 | 价格 | | 2026E 2027E | | 滨江集团-A | 跑赢行业 | 14.25 | 10.2 | 9.4 | | 招商蛇口-A | 跑赢行业 | 12.20 | 17.9 | 16.4 | | 华润万象生活-H | 跑赢行业 | 48. ...

Core Viewpoint - The survey indicates an optimistic outlook for China's economy in 2026, with a focus on stability and growth, as well as the need for supportive policies in the real estate sector [1][3][4]. Economic Outlook - Over 70% of economists believe that China's economic growth in the past year met expectations, with 21% stating it exceeded them [3][13]. - The expected GDP growth for 2025 is around 5%, with the total economic output projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan [3]. - The "Securities Times Economic Expectation Heat Index" has risen for three consecutive quarters, reflecting improved expectations for the economy [3]. International Trade and Investment - More than 60% of respondents expect the international trade environment to stabilize, with manageable impacts on China's economy [4][13]. - Fixed asset investment growth is anticipated to slightly increase in the first half of 2026, with 57% of respondents expressing optimism [4][14]. Stock Market Expectations - 96% of respondents rated the stock market outlook for the first half of 2026 positively, scoring 3 or above on a scale of 5 [6][19]. - Nearly 60% expect a slight inflow of cross-border capital, with A-shares and precious metals being the most favored asset classes [7][19]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Over 60% of economists believe there is room to increase the fiscal deficit rate, which is expected to remain above 4% [9][21]. - The next round of monetary easing, such as interest rate cuts, is anticipated to occur between the Lunar New Year and the end of the first quarter [9][21]. Real Estate Market Policies - A majority of respondents suggest implementing more supportive policies for the real estate market, including the establishment of a national housing stock purchase fund and lowering existing mortgage rates [10][22]. - 61% recommend the removal of restrictions in first-tier cities to stabilize the housing market [10][22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that in a declining economic growth environment and a low-interest-rate era, dividend strategies remain effective as investors seek more certain assets [2][35] - The article highlights that the policy support is enhancing the attractiveness of dividend assets, with a notable increase in dividend payouts from listed companies, particularly since 2024 [9][10][35] - The S&P Hong Kong Low Volatility Dividend Index (SPAHLVCP.SPI) is presented as having better investment value compared to A-shares, with a 12-month dividend yield of 5.6% and a PE ratio of 5.7 times as of December 31, 2025 [14][31][36] Group 2 - The S&P Hong Kong Low Volatility Dividend Index was launched on February 20, 2017, and consists of 50 low-volatility stocks selected from 75 high-dividend securities that meet the Hong Kong Stock Connect eligibility criteria [21][36] - The index is primarily composed of large-cap stocks, with a balanced distribution across sectors such as finance, real estate, and energy, and it has a historical performance that outperforms the Hang Seng Index and other dividend indices [22][33][36] - The index has shown a cumulative increase of 99.41% since 2021, with an annualized return of approximately 14.8%, indicating strong long-term performance [18][33][36]