Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance last week, with trading volume remaining high [1] Macroeconomic Data Analysis - In Q4 2025, actual GDP growth rate declined by 0.3 percentage points to 4.5%, with an annual growth rate of 5%, aligning with market expectations [3][18] - Net exports contributed positively to economic growth, increasing from 1.4% to 1.2%, while investment and consumption contributions decreased [18] - December retail sales growth fell for the seventh consecutive month, dropping from 1.3% in November to 0.9% in December, below the market expectation of 1.0% [18] - Fixed asset investment growth continued to decline in December, reaching -3.8%, also below market expectations [4][19] - Real estate development investment saw a significant drop, with cumulative year-on-year growth at -17.2% and monthly growth at -35% [19] Investment Outlook - The market is experiencing a divergence, with high trading volume and a slight decrease in financing levels [8][21] - Short-term views indicate a favorable liquidity environment, supported by a weak dollar cycle and gradual appreciation of the RMB, alongside active institutional funds [9][22] - Concerns about the end of the spring market rally are growing, but no significant policy tightening or fundamental deterioration has been observed [22] - Mid-term perspectives favor technology growth as a key direction, with expectations of gradual improvement in the economic fundamentals [10][23] - Long-term views highlight the ongoing U.S.-China strategic competition, with potential support for China's equity market from foreign capital inflows [11][25] Industry Insights - Defensive dividend sectors are entering an observation phase, while aggressive sectors may face pressure [12][26] - Continued focus on technology, particularly in AI and related fields, is expected to drive performance [12][26] - The market is likely to see opportunities in sectors benefiting from domestic demand and high economic activity, such as chemicals and construction materials [12][26]

Core Insights - In 2025, Shandong province implemented a series of policies to promote the replacement of old consumer goods, effectively stimulating market vitality and optimizing consumption structure, achieving a total retail sales of consumer goods of 42,082.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - Urban retail sales reached 35,220.9 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, while rural markets showed stronger performance with retail sales of 6,861.9 billion yuan, a growth rate of 5.5%, indicating coordinated growth between urban and rural consumption [1] - Retail sales of goods amounted to 37,467.0 billion yuan, increasing by 5.1%, while catering revenue reached 4,615.9 billion yuan, up by 4.5% [1] Group 2: Essential Goods - Basic living goods continued to play a stabilizing role, with retail sales of grain and oil, beverages, tobacco and alcohol, and daily necessities increasing by 10.0%, 12.6%, 12.9%, and 17.4% respectively, collectively accounting for 22.2% of retail sales above the designated size, contributing 2.4 percentage points to overall retail sales growth [1] Group 3: Upgrading Consumption - The sales of upgraded consumer goods showed positive trends, with retail sales of gold, silver, and jewelry, sports and entertainment products, and cultural and office supplies increasing by 9.6%, 12.4%, and 22.8% respectively, together contributing 0.6 percentage points to retail sales growth, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] Group 4: Replacement Goods - Retail sales of communication equipment surged by 29.8%, while home appliances and audio-visual equipment, and furniture grew by 12.0% and 12.9% respectively, with new energy vehicle sales also increasing by 8.7%, collectively driving a 2.9 percentage point increase in retail sales above the designated size [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that AI applications are expected to accelerate their implementation in the industry [1] - Southbound capital is flowing into the market at an increasing pace, with net inflows primarily in the information technology and consumer discretionary sectors [1] - The overall investment strategy maintains a barbell approach, with value dividends as the base and a dynamic focus on offensive market directions, particularly in AI technology [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513720) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index (931637), which selects listed companies involved in e-commerce, social media, and gaming to reflect the overall performance of internet-related securities listed in Hong Kong [1] - The industry allocation of the index emphasizes media, retail, and consumer services, showcasing a distinct internet theme and high industry concentration [1]

2025年，应对外部环境复杂变化，中国始终坚持立足国内、依托国内大市场优势，充分挖掘内需潜力，全国统一大市场建设向纵深推进。 从"两新"政策加力扩围，到提振消费专项行动深入实施，再到19条措施扩大服务消费，一系列政策顺应消费新需求，引导产业创新供给。 2025年社会消费品零售总额突破50万亿元，比上年增长3.7%。全年服务零售额比上年增长5.5%，最终消费支出对经济增长的贡献率达52%。 2025年10月1日，市民在2025第46届中国（福州）国际汽车博览会现场观看车商的促销活动。新华社记者 魏培全 摄 2025年10月2日，游客在河南省洛阳市老城区历史文化街区洛邑古城景区休闲游玩。新华社发（黄政伟 摄） "2025年，我国采取一系列政策来推动消费增长，并取得积极效果。"上海交通大学上海高级金融学院金融学教授朱宁说，在国际贸易环境不 确定、我国经济增长模式转型升级的背景下，我国宏观政策对于消费增长起到很大的促进作用。 对外经济贸易大学国家对外开放研究院研究员刘斌说，2025年我国消费市场呈现出服务领跑、商品升级、绿色智能等特征。新的消费场景不 断涌现，政策与市场产生共振，线上线下深度融合，零售模式加速迭代升级 ...

证券研究报告：商贸零售|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 近期研究报告 《11 月社零数据如何？》 - 2025.12.22 12 月社零数据如何？ ⚫ 事件 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2470.34 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 2584.65 | | 52 | 周最低 | 1877.67 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 25% 2025-02 2025-04 2025-06 2025-09 2025-11 2026-01 商贸零售 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李鑫鑫 SAC 登记编号:S1340525010006 Email:lixinxin@cnpsec.com 国家统计局发布最新社零数据，12 月份，社会消费品零售总额 45136 亿元，同比增长 0.9%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额 39654 亿元，增长 1.7%。2025 年，社会消费品零售总额 501202 亿元，比上 年增长 3.7%。其中，除汽车 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese New Year consumption market is particularly vibrant this year, showcasing new consumption scenarios, business models, and innovative practices that reflect the robust vitality of the festive economy [1] Group 1: Flower Market - The flower market is entering a peak sales season, with popular domestic varieties like Amaryllis and artificially cultivated orchids gaining favor due to their affordability and auspicious meanings [1] - The "fresh flower economy," valued in the billions, is particularly prominent during the New Year flower season, adding warmth and novelty to the festive economy [1] Group 2: Traditional Markets and Local Products - Traditional "New Year goods fairs" are thriving nationwide, supported by electronic consumption vouchers to attract customers, with notable regional events like the "Winter Fishing Festival" in Northeast China and the "Mountain Lake Goodies" in Qinghai [3] - Local traditional products, such as painted gourds symbolizing good fortune and woodblock New Year paintings, are gaining popularity alongside trendy zodiac-themed toys [3] Group 3: Cultural Experiences and Events - The bustling atmosphere of traditional markets includes live cooking of famous local foods, cultural performances, and interactive experiences that resonate with consumers, especially the younger demographic [4] - The Ministry of Commerce reported that last year's key events for traditional brands generated over 5 billion yuan in direct sales and stimulated more than 16 billion yuan in online and offline consumption [4] Group 4: Family Activities and New Trends - Families are increasingly interested in capturing memories through family portraits, with the business growing over 30% annually, reflecting a trend towards personalized and emotional experiences [5] - New consumption highlights include family outings to cinemas for festive films, traveling for unique New Year experiences, and customized beauty services, indicating a shift towards experiential consumption [5] Group 5: Consumer Trends - The evolving consumption landscape reflects a shift from product consumption to service and experiential consumption, emphasizing cultural significance, emotional value, and spiritual satisfaction [7] - The interaction between innovative supply and changing consumer demand is fostering a positive cycle, laying a strong foundation for consumption growth throughout the year [7]

Group 1 - Chongqing aims to achieve a per capita GDP of 140,000 yuan by 2030, building an advanced manufacturing center and an innovation hub in the western region [1] - In 2024, Chongqing's per capita GDP surpassed 100,000 yuan, ranking 10th among 31 provinces in China [1] - The city's industrial economy is projected to exceed 3 trillion yuan, with service sector value added reaching 1.98 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] Group 2 - In 2025, Chongqing's GDP reached 33,757.93 billion yuan, growing by 5.3%, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous quarters [2] - Chongqing's GDP surpassed Liaoning's, moving up one position to rank 16th among 31 provinces in China [2] - The main economic targets for Chongqing in 2025 include a GDP growth of over 5%, industrial value added growth of 6%, and a retail sales growth of over 4% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with over 3,500 stocks in the red, while the Shanghai Composite Index shows a slight increase, indicating a mixed market sentiment [1] Market Performance - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.49%, and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09%. In contrast, the ChiNext Index fell by 0.37%, and the STAR Market 50 Index decreased by 0.73% [1] - The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached approximately 1.93 trillion yuan [1] Sector Analysis - The pharmaceutical, automotive, and retail sectors experienced declines, while the oil, non-ferrous metals, coal, semiconductor, and brokerage sectors saw gains. Additionally, gold and disperse dye concepts were active [1] Investment Strategy - Dongguan Securities suggests that short-term indices may continue to fluctuate around moving averages, with an accelerated rotation of sectors. However, the spring market for A-shares is expected to continue, primarily characterized by structural trends [1] - Recommended investment strategies include balanced allocation, focusing on undervalued assets with stable earnings, technology sectors leading new productivity, and domestic demand expansion under the backdrop of a strong domestic market [1]

国务院新闻办公室近日举行新闻发布会，商务部相关负责人表示，2025年提振消费加力显效，全年社会 消费品零售总额首次突破50万亿元，达到50.1万亿元，增长3.7%，消费对经济增长的贡献率达到52%， 提高了5个百分点。下一步，商务部将围绕"出政策、办活动、优场景"三大方向深化促消费工作。 本报记者 蒋永霞 1月26日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍了2025年商务工作及运行情况。数据显示，2025年 社会消费品零售总额首次突破50万亿元大关，达50.1万亿元，同比增长3.7%；尤为引人注目的是，消费 对经济增长的贡献率达到52%，较上年提升5个百分点，再次印证了消费作为我国经济"主引擎"的核心 地位。在政策加力、场景创新与结构优化的多重推动下，我国消费市场呈现出稳中有进、质效双升的新 格局。 政策与活动双轮驱动 2025年，以"政策+活动"双轮驱动的促消费策略成效显著，尤其在大宗耐用商品和县域乡村市场释放出 强劲动能。 大宗耐用商品消费较快增长。2025年，受消费品以旧换新政策带动，相关商品，比如限额以上单位家 电、通讯器材、家具零售额分别增长了11%、20.9%和14.6%，乘用车零售量增加了3.8% ...

Core Insights - Beijing is accelerating the development of an international consumption center city, with a notable focus on service consumption [1] Group 1: Consumption Trends - Total market consumption in Beijing increased by 1.6% year-on-year, showing a 1.1 percentage point improvement compared to the first three quarters [1] - Service consumption in Beijing grew by 5% year-on-year, with nearly 60% of residents' per capita consumption expenditure allocated to service-related spending [1] - Retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Information service consumption, driven by digital technologies such as internet live streaming and gaming, experienced double-digit growth [1] - The cultural and entertainment sectors, including film and performance markets, achieved double-digit growth in box office revenues [1] - The tourism and travel sector remained active, with revenues from travel agencies and related services increasing by over 10% [1] Group 3: Product Categories - Retail sales of gold, silver, and jewelry increased by 39.5%, cosmetics by 12.6%, and grain and oil products by 5.7% year-on-year [1] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is rising, with retail sales of these products increasing by 13.2% year-on-year, supported by policies promoting consumption and the popularity of certain new models [1]