油料日报 | 2025-05-21 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2507合约4191.00元/吨，较前日变化+9.00元/吨，幅度+0.22%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A07-31，较前日变化-9，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周一，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货小幅上涨，基准期约收高0.1%，主要受技术面因素推动， 收复了上周连续两个交易日的部分跌幅。截至收盘，大豆期货上涨0.75美分到3.75美分不等，其中7月期约上涨0.75 美分，报收1050.75美分/蒲式耳;8月期约上涨1.50美分，报收1047.75美分/蒲式耳;11月期约上涨1.50美分，报收1037 美分/蒲式耳。5月21日，黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.08元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江 双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.10元/斤，较昨日涨0.02元/斤；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场 国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.08元/斤，较昨日跌0.02元/斤；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白 41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.18元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][6][8] Core Viewpoints - The cotton market has limited upward - driving forces and will likely oscillate. Although the market sentiment has improved due to the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, factors such as high export tariffs, uncertain supply and demand, and a lack of strong incentives in the planting end restrict the cotton price's rebound space [1][2][3] - The sugar market's overall trend is mainly influenced by the international market. Although domestic sugar prices are currently supported, if Brazil's high - yield expectations are gradually realized, Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to follow the decline of raw sugar [5][6] - The pulp market's price is affected by macro - emotions and supply - demand relationships. Although the macro - sentiment has improved, the high inventory and weak demand will keep the pulp futures price in a low - level oscillation in the short term [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,390 yuan/ton yesterday, with no change from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,474 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 14,566 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Import: In April 2025, China's cotton imports were 60,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous month and 280,000 tons from the same period last year [1] Market Analysis - Macro: Sino - US economic and trade relations have eased, but the actual tariff on textile and clothing exports to the US remains high, and the tariff policy's uncertainty will increase after 90 days [2] - International: USDA has adjusted the 25/26 global cotton balance sheet, but there are many uncertainties, and the supply - side weather factors currently lack a strong narrative [2] - Domestic: The cotton - planting area has increased slightly, the cotton seedlings are growing well, the inventory is being depleted, and the demand has not declined sharply. However, it has entered the off - season, and the demand expectation is weakening [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. In the short term, the cotton price may oscillate strongly, but the rebound space is limited [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,853 yuan/ton yesterday, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,120 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,910 yuan/ton, also unchanged [4] - Import: In April 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 80,000 tons from the same period last year [4] Market Analysis - International: Brazil's mid - southern sugar production in the second half of April was lower than expected, but most institutions are optimistic about the supply in the 25/26 season, and the raw sugar price is under pressure [5] - Domestic: The domestic sugar sales and production data are favorable, and the short - term import volume is limited. However, the long - term import pressure is expected to increase, and the price increase space is restricted [5][6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy, focusing on Brazil's production and domestic import rhythm [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5,390 yuan/ton yesterday, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 6,325 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Russian needles was 5,425 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [6] - Market: The prices of imported pulp in different regions showed different trends, with some rising and some loosening [6] Market Analysis - Macro: The "reciprocal tariff" policy has increased the pulp price's volatility, but the improvement of Sino - US relations has promoted the pulp price's rebound [7] - Supply: The decrease in the foreign - exchange quotation has weakened the cost support, and the inventory is still at a high level, suppressing the market price [7] - Demand: European demand has not improved significantly, and domestic downstream demand is weak, and there is a possibility of further weakening in the off - season [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The pulp futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [8]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 短期偏空震荡 | 南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开启，未来十五天降雨恢复，按照 CPC 月度展 | | | | 望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着 | | | | 开机率上升，豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低，存在 | | | | 补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为缓和。5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上， | | | | 供应有逐步增加趋势。中美贸易缓和利空豆粕，但由于 23%的关税依然存在，美豆 | | | | 暂无性价比，对豆粕价格实际利空影响有限。5 月美农报告偏利多。豆粕近日窄幅 | | | | 整理，但短期空头格局依然占据主导，市场在等待新指引。主力【2865，2930】 | | | 短期偏空震荡 | 截止本周最新库存数据显示，油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比调减，5 月至 7 月菜籽进口同 | | | | 比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口量预期偏低，供应展望压力减轻。 | | 菜粕 | | 近日菜粕小幅反弹，但短期空头 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and hogs) are rated as "Sideways" [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Corn**: The sentiment in the corn market has changed, with the selling price loosening. The futures and spot markets are adjusting. The futures price is under pressure due to concerns about imported corn auctions. Technically, it is in a high - level sideways pattern, and short - term attention should be paid to the support of the long - term moving average of the July contract [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose in technical trading, but weather in the US Midwest and policy uncertainty regarding biofuels limited the upside. In Argentina, some soybean losses may occur due to storms. In China, the protein meal market declined, and the spot price of soybean meal dropped, dragging down both near - and far - month contracts. The oil mills' high expected soybean crushing volume and slow downstream procurement led to a rapid decline in the spot price. It is recommended to hold a long - short spread strategy for the 9 - 1 contract [1]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil rose, ending a two - day decline, supported by the strength of soybean oil. High - frequency data showed an 8.5% increase in Malaysian palm oil production from May 1 - 15. The 6 - month tariff was reduced from 10% to 9.5%. In China, rapeseed oil led the rise, and soybean oil and palm oil also moved up. The supply of oils has increased since May, but demand is weak, and the basis is expected to decline. The trading strategy is intraday trading [1]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures contracts showed a downward trend. The spot price decreased. The Dragon Boat Festival demand will support the short - term egg price, but the upcoming rainy season and increasing supply may lead to a weak egg price in the future. Attention should be paid to the changes in feed raw material prices and farmers' culling intentions [1][2]. - **Hogs**: The hog futures showed a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness. The September contract is at a discount to the spot price. The feed cost is expected to decline, putting pressure on the hog price. Technically, short - term attention should be paid to the support at 13,500 yuan for the September contract, and long - term investors should wait for opportunities to enter the market [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information - The US has adjusted the wording of the guide's press release, but the discriminatory measures and market - distorting nature of the guide remain unchanged. China firmly opposes the US's abuse of export control measures against Chinese chip products [3]. - A US private exporter reported selling 145,000 tons of soybean meal to the Philippines for delivery in the 2024/2025 season [3]. - As of May 19, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.49403 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 275,050 tons [3]. - As of the week ending May 15, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 217,842 tons, down from the previous week. The cumulative export inspection volume for this crop year (starting from September 1) was 44.131939 million tons, higher than the same period last year [3][4]. - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for June to the level corresponding to a 9.5% export tariff, from 4,449.35 ringgit per ton in May to 3,926.59 ringgit per ton [4]. Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and contract basis for different agricultural products, including corn, soybean, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and hogs, such as the 9 - 1 spreads and basis of these products [5][6][8][9][12][14][15][18][20][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic soybean futures prices fluctuated, and domestic soybean prices in various regions showed a stable - to - rising trend due to low remaining grain, minimal market inventory compared to the same period in previous years, weak downstream procurement, and a significant decline in reserve auction quantities, resulting in a supply - demand balance that gives soybean prices some resilience [1][2] - Domestic peanut futures prices rose slightly, and the peanut spot market showed a stable - to - strong trend last week. The trading atmosphere warmed up, and the price center gradually shifted upwards. Factors such as low remaining inventory at the grass - roots level, low grass - roots supply affected by the busy farming season, and delayed new - season sowing due to drought have led to uncertainties in later growth [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis - **Futures**: The closing price of the soybeans 2505 contract was 4182.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 yuan/ton or +0.34% from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The edible soybean spot basis was A05 - 22, down 14 or 32.14% from the previous day. The prices of national standard first - class soybeans in various regions of Heilongjiang remained stable [1] - **Market News**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybean futures closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 0.2%, following the rise in the corn market, but the improved weather in Argentina restricted the rebound of the soybean market [1] Peanut Market Analysis - **Futures**: The closing price of the peanut 2505 contract was 8268.00 yuan/ton, up 36.00 yuan/ton or +0.44% from the previous day [3] - **Spot**: The average peanut spot price was 8380.00 yuan/ton, up 80.00 yuan/ton or +0.96% month - on - month. The spot basis was PK05 - 268.00, down 36.00 or +15.52% month - on - month. Peanut prices in different regions were reported [3]

张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 受供应前景拖累，原糖短线承压 商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-05-20 [Table_Summary] 白糖：由于糖料种植的经济效益显著，加上国家政策和制糖企业的积极支 持，农民的种植积极性有所提升，导致糖料种植面积稳步增长。然而，广西 早期的干旱天气对宿根甘蔗的出苗和新植甘蔗的种植产生了不利影响，从而 限制了食糖产量的增长。食糖消费量预期保持平稳或略有增加，食糖的供需 缺口基本稳定，进口量预期维持在 500 万吨不变。短期观望为主 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地棉区由于比较效益低和机械化推广难度大等因 素，种植面积持续下降。在棉花播种和出苗期间，主要产区的气候条件良好 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For corn, the recent price has been fluctuating downward, and it is recommended to participate in the short - term. The Northeast region has seen increased grain sales due to price spreads, and the new wheat harvest in North China is squeezing corn demand. The spring sowing progress in some areas is slower than last year [2]. - For corn starch, the supply - demand situation is weak, with continuous deep losses in the industry. The开机率 has decreased, and the downstream demand is poor. The inventory remains high. The recent futures price has continued to decline, and short - term participation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2330 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the monthly spread (9 - 1) is 99 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures is - 107435 hands, up 17159 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 212135 hands, up 10193 hands [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2669 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the monthly spread (7 - 9) is - 74 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures is - 3444 hands, up 62 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 26620 hands, unchanged [2]. - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 443 cents/bushel, down 5.25 cents; the total position is 1589429 contracts, up 40903 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is 18106 contracts, down 97793 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2373.24 yuan/ton, down 1.66 yuan; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn is 2076.17 yuan/ton, up 1.4 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The factory price in Changchun is 2670 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2830 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Corn production forecasts: The predicted production in the US is 377.63 million tons, in Brazil is 126 million tons, in Argentina is 50 million tons, in China is 294.92 million tons, and in Ukraine is 26.8 million tons, all unchanged [2]. - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 143.9 tons, down 6.4 tons; at northern ports is 495 tons, down 13 tons; the deep - processing inventory is 452.8 tons, down 41.8 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 8 tons, unchanged; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 20.35 tons, down 0.93 tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2777.2 tons, down 66.4 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed: The monthly production of feed is 2777.2 tons, down 66.4 tons; the sample feed corn inventory days are 35.2 days, up 0.06 days; the deep - processing corn consumption is 118.55 tons, down 3.42 tons [2]. - Corn starch processing profit: In Shandong is - 134 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Hebei is - 96 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; in Jilin is - 110 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Operating rate: The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 42.15%, up 0.93%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 57.17%, down 5.74% [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Corn historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility is 9.09%, up 0.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.24%, up 0.01% [2]. - Corn option implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.87%, down 0.33%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.87%, down 0.33% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Cofco plans to build the world's largest agricultural product export terminal in Brazil, which worries US farmers as they think China is shifting the agricultural supply chain to South America [2]. - Canadian agriculture is facing a highly uncertain spring - sowing season due to export restrictions to China and tariff impacts on exports to the US [2]. - The USDA supply - demand report predicts that the US corn ending inventory in 2025/26 will reach 1.8 billion bushels, which restricts market prices, and the Sino - US trade relationship also affects market sentiment [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Pressure is released periodically, and it is looking for support at lower levels [2]. - **Soybean Oil**: Fluctuations in US biodiesel policy have intensified short - term risks [2][5]. - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force, and the market is oscillating [2][13]. - **Soybean**: The spot market is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures market is slightly stronger and oscillating [2][13]. - **Corn**: It is running in an oscillating pattern [2][16]. - **Sugar**: It is running weakly [2][21]. - **Cotton**: It fluctuates following market sentiment [2][25]. - **Eggs**: They are in an oscillating adjustment phase [2][30]. - **Pigs**: Short - term expectations have weakened [2][32]. - **Peanuts**: They are oscillating strongly [2][37]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Fundamental Data - Palm oil's day - session closing price was 7,984 yuan/ton with a - 0.80% change, and night - session closing price was 8,022 yuan/ton with a 0.48% change. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 7,754 yuan/ton with a - 0.54% change, and night - session closing price was 7,786 yuan/ton with a 0.41% change [6]. Macro and Industry News - EU is still discussing whether to classify Malaysia as a low - risk country under the EUDR, which may lead to trade restrictions on Malaysian palm oil. GAPKI urged the Indonesian government to postpone the plan to raise palm oil export special tax. Small - scale palm oil producers face financial inequality issues [7][8]. 2. Soybean Meal and Soybean Fundamental Data - DCE soybean 2507's day - session closing price was 4168 yuan/ton with a - 0.31% change, and night - session closing price was 4185 yuan/ton with a + 0.48% change. DCE soybean meal 2509's day - session closing price was 2899 yuan/ton with a - 0.14% change, and night - session closing price was 2896 yuan/ton with a - 0.21% change [13]. Macro and Industry News - CBOT soybeans were fluctuating, affected by South American soybean harvests, US - China trade relations, and US weather conditions. US soybeans lack price competitiveness under current tariffs, and Brazil's record - high soybean harvest dominates the global export market [15]. 3. Corn Fundamental Data - C2507's day - session closing price was 2,335 yuan/ton with a - 0.43% change, and night - session closing price was 2,333 yuan/ton with a - 0.09% change. C2509's day - session closing price was 2,351 yuan/ton with a - 0.34% change, and night - session closing price was 2,348 yuan/ton with a - 0.13% change [17]. Macro and Industry News - There were price differences in corn collection and sales in different regions, and the price of imported grains such as sorghum and barley was also reported [18]. 4. Sugar Fundamental Data - The raw sugar price was 17.56 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 6170 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5855 yuan/ton [21]. Macro and Industry News - Brazil's sugarcane crushing progress was slower year - on - year, USDA expected Brazil's production to increase by 2% in the 25/26 season, India's 24/25 season sugar production was 2569 tons by the end of April, and Brazil's April exports decreased by 18% year - on - year [21]. 5. Cotton Fundamental Data - CF2509's day - session closing price was 13,390 yuan/ton with a - 0.19% change, and night - session closing price was 13380 yuan/ton with a - 0.07% change. ICE US cotton 07's closing price was 65.14 cents/pound with a - 0.53% change [25]. Macro and Industry News - The overall trading of domestic cotton spot was light, the cotton yarn market had some improvements but the profit situation deteriorated, and ICE cotton lacked upward - driving force due to good weather in US cotton - growing areas [26][27]. 6. Eggs Fundamental Data - Egg 2507's closing price was 2,981 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 1.06% change, and Egg 2509's closing price was 3,788 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 0.21% change [30]. Macro and Industry News - No macro and industry news was provided for eggs. 7. Pigs Fundamental Data - Henan's spot price was 14850 yuan/ton, Sichuan's was 14350 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's was 15190 yuan/ton. Futures prices of different contracts also showed certain changes [34]. Market Logic - The price spread between fat and lean pigs in the north and south was inverted, group - farm piglet sales decreased, and short - term expectations weakened. The 11 - 1 reverse spread could be considered for medium - and long - term layout [36]. 8. Peanuts Fundamental Data - The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8,300 yuan/ton with a 40 - yuan increase, and the price of Henan Baisha common peanuts was 8,200 yuan/ton with a 40 - yuan increase. PK510's closing price was 8,232 yuan/ton with a 0.05% change [37]. Spot Market Focus - In different peanut - producing areas, the supply from farmers was limited, and the purchasing intention of downstream customers improved. Most areas had a strong price trend [38].

从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 大豆/粕类 【重要资讯】 农产品早报 2025-05-19 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周五美豆窄幅下跌，EPA 已向白宫提交了 RVO 规则供审核，但传言提交的版本大幅低于市场预期，美 豆油弱势带动美豆下跌。周末国内豆粕现货小幅下跌，因开机率提升，华东低价报2880元/吨。据MYSTEEL 预估 5 月大豆预计到港 919.75 万吨，6 月 1100 万吨，7 月 1050 万吨。据 MYSTEEL 预估本周大豆压榨 量预计来到 220 万吨高位，国内供应压力增大。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周中部降雨较多，可能对播种有所影响。巴西农民大豆销售进度已超过 60%，后期卖压 或逐步下降，另一方面，巴西也有对中美关系恢复的担忧，有利润的情况下当地也会积极出货 ...

期货热点追踪 豆油领跌拖垮油脂市场！棕榈油增产季将至，价格还要跌多少？ 相关链接 ...