期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 3 日 0 / 47 | 股指期货：做空动能释放 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：波澜不惊 4 | | 蛋白粕：供应仍有压力 | 盘面小幅震荡 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价震荡 | 国内价格偏弱 5 | | 油脂板块：油脂维持宽度震荡 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货回落，盘面底部震荡 8 | | | 生猪：出栏压力好转 | 现货震荡运行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 10 | | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 金银：金银震荡初显企稳，节前风控仍是主线 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：巨幅震荡逐步收敛 风险释放后等待低多机会 17 | | 铜：恐慌情绪退坡，铜价企稳 17 | | 氧化铝：震荡为主 18 | | 电解铝：流动性收紧带动价格回调后 震荡为主 19 | | 铸造铝合金：连日回调后 铝合金随板块震荡 20 | ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 每日精选： 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、硅铁、锰硅 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PX、PTA、乙二醇、短纤、瓶片、纯苯、苯乙烯、LLDPE、PP、甲醇、烧 碱、PVC、尿素、纯碱、玻璃、天然橡胶、合成橡胶 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@g ...

国外 1. 麦格理：美元暂稳但隐忧仍存 麦格理集团策略师Thierry Wizman指出，特朗普提名沃什领导美联储的决定，有助于稳定美元走势。市 场交易员或认为，这一决定意在传递延续央行制度传统的信号。然而，特朗普不太可能背离自身的信念 体系，其曾多次施压美联储降息。沃什是特朗普的家族友人，自2009年以来长期在货币政策方面为总统 提供幕后建议。这意味着当降息时机临近时，沃什或将更迅速采取行动。 2. 荷兰国际：多重压力叠加，加元或面临下行风险 荷兰国际集团分析师弗朗西斯科·佩索莱在报告中指出，若美元延续反弹势头、美墨加协定续约谈判陷 入僵局且加拿大失业率进一步攀升，加元可能走弱。美加关系与就业市场的持续恶化，可能促使市场对 加拿大央行进一步降息的预期升温。加拿大央行高度关注季度商业前景调查。即便其他经济信心指标已 开始改善，但该调查持续显示贸易不确定性是第四季度企业招聘意愿下降的主因。荷兰国际集团认为美 元兑加元仍有上行至1.36-1.37的空间。 3. CreditSights：沃什回归加剧美联储缩表争议，调控压力或转向财政部 随着凯文·沃什获得美联储主席提名，市场焦点已骤然从短期利率转向美联储6.6万亿 ...

Group 1 - The macro liquidity environment is balanced and slightly loose, with the central bank conducting a net reverse repo of 580.5 billion and a net MLF injection of 700 billion [4][10][11] - The stock market shows a structural divergence in funding supply, with an increase in equity fund issuance and a recovery in leveraged funds, while ETFs experience significant net outflows [5][12][13] - The stock market's funding demand pressure has eased, with equity financing rising to 11.244 billion, and the scale of locked-up shares being released decreasing to 49.09 billion [20][21] Group 2 - The stock market funding supply shows a significant net outflow for the CSI 300 index for three consecutive weeks, with a total net outflow of 2,446.02 billion this week [5][12][19] - The net inflow of financing is concentrated in the non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals sectors, while the electronics and defense industries see net outflows [5][18] - The overall scale of equity financing has increased, driven by a significant rise in IPOs, with 4 IPOs raising 5.549 billion this week [21][27] Group 3 - The stock market's funding demand has shown signs of relief, with a decrease in the scale of locked-up shares released and a reduction in significant shareholder sell-offs [20][21] - The total amount of locked-up shares released this week is 49.09 billion, down from 59.55 billion the previous week, with the highest release values in the power equipment and machinery sectors [21][24] - The net reduction in significant shareholder holdings is 12.278 billion, a decrease from 14.508 billion the previous week, with the electronics and communications sectors seeing the most significant reductions [21][28]

商品表现 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 2 月 2 日收盘，国内期货主力合约大面积飘绿，沪银、铂、钯、碳酸 ...

中新网南宁2月2日电 (陈秋霞)2月2日，在广西壮族自治区十四届人大五次会议"代表通道"集中采访活动 上，来自不同领域的6名广西人大代表分享各自履职经历。从数字赋能到向海图强，从绿色转型到民生 改善，从民族团结到乡村振兴，一个个生动鲜活的故事，勾勒出广西发展新貌。 2月2日， 在广西壮族自治区十四届人大五次会议"代表通道"集中采访活动上，广西人大代表分享各自履职经历。 陈冠言 摄 数字赋能 "我们是AI饲养员。"广西人大代表、广西北投信创科技投资集团有限公司党委副书记、总经理陈志作为 人工智能发展参与者，见证了AI(人工智能)从实验室走进生产生活。 第22届中国—东盟博览会期间，一名马来西亚游客想前往广西钦州市六峰山景区参观。他通过马来西亚 应用MyDigital ID在"一码游广西"APP完成认证，快速完成景区购票，到景区扫码直接入园。 18年扎根一线，玉建国亲历北部湾港从年吞吐量19万标箱到千万标箱大港的蝶变。他和团队攻克雅万高 铁钢轨出口装卸难题，实现中国长定尺钢轨出口"零的突破"。智慧港口建设中，他和团队啃下"硬骨 头"，建成广西首个大型数字化散货堆场，使作业效率提升超过30%；建设"北港网"平台，精 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, tin prices are vulnerable to market sentiment, geopolitical situations, and short - term supply - demand changes, with intensified fluctuations and high risks. It's recommended that investors participate cautiously to avoid sharp volatility. In the long - term, the core support for the upward shift of tin prices remains solid, and it's advisable to wait for market sentiment to stabilize or prices to have a reasonable correction and then adopt a strategy of going long on dips. [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Affected by the retreat of US technology stocks and the rising expectation of Fed tightening, tin prices dropped significantly from the night session on January 29th. As of February 2nd, the main contract of Shanghai tin hit the 11% daily limit down to 392,650 yuan/ton. [1] 3.2 Driving Factors 3.2.1 Impact of US Technology Stocks and Fed Expectations - Microsoft's Q4 2025 earnings report showed that huge capital expenditures in AI infrastructure, model training, and cloud services did not lead to significant revenue growth. This concern hit the high - valuation logic of technology stocks, especially AI concept stocks. Microsoft's stock price plunged over 10% on January 30th, with a single - day market value evaporation of about $420 billion. [2] - The news that Kevin Warsh will be nominated as the next Fed Chairman on January 29th, and the official announcement by Trump on January 30th. Warsh is a "hawk" on monetary policy. The expectation of his taking office led to the anticipation of accelerated global dollar liquidity tightening, causing a sell - off in precious metals and non - ferrous metals. [3] 3.2.2 Supply Recovery in Myanmar - From November to December 2025, China's imports of tin ore and concentrates from Myanmar increased significantly year - on - year. In November, imports were 7,190.21 physical tons (about 1,636.05 metal tons), with a month - on - month increase of 89.94% and a year - on - year increase of 92.16%. In December, imports were 6,205.43 physical tons (1,342.37 metal tons), a 17.95% month - on - month decrease but a 183.32% year - on - year increase. [5] - The recovery of Myanmar's supply eased the tight domestic tin ore supply, and the processing fees of smelters increased. As of February 2nd, the processing fee of 40% tin concentrates in Yunnan rose to 14,000 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 2,000 yuan/ton; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrates in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi also rose to 10,000 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 2,000 yuan/ton. [6] 3.3 Future Outlook - In the long - term, the upward shift of tin prices is supported by three factors: long - term rigid constraints on the supply side (low global tin ore reserve - to - production ratio, supply disruptions in major producing areas, limited new large - scale mining projects, and rising mining costs); profound changes in the demand structure (the "AI arms race" boosting the demand for high - end semiconductor packaging and electronic soldering materials); and the re - evaluation of the strategic value of tin due to global technological competition and industrial chain security concerns. [7]

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 今天上午，A股调整，从盘面看，三大板块下跌，对市场影响较大。 首先，受大宗商品市场巨震的传导， 有色金属、油气开采、化工、大豆、玉米等板块上午大跌 ， 紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、"三桶油"等龙头股下跌。 其次，受相关业务的增值税税率调整， 三大运营商上午集体下跌。 最后， 科技股上午调整，存储芯片板块大跌 。有机构调研显示，上周DRAM现货价数月来首跌。 对此，业内人士表示，存储整体景气度仍在上行，DRAM价格数月来首次下跌，主要归因于现货价 格与期货价格巨大的价差。目前高价现货市场基本处于有价无市，市场的合约价格仍处于持续上涨 趋势中。也有分析称，可能是市场上的囤货，临近春节，出现部分抛售。 电力基建产业链上涨 今天上午，电力基建产业链上涨，电网设备板块大涨，个股掀起涨停潮，双杰电气、亿能电力、安 靠智电等个股涨幅居前。智能电网、特高压等板块上涨。 | | V | 电网设备 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 7137.09 3.46% | | | | 成分股 | 基金 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Views of the Report - If Kevin Warsh is successfully appointed as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, he will combine a hawkish stance with political compromise, implementing a unique policy of simultaneous interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction. His core goal is to compress the private sector's balance sheet and repair the government's balance sheet, with oil prices serving as a key supplementary tool for this policy. This series of policy adjustments will interact with the narrative of the loss of US dollar credit, becoming a crucial scenario to test this narrative [2]. - The market is expected to enter a cautious exploration period in February. The key lies in Warsh's explanation of policy contradictions during the Senate hearing. His combination policy of interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction may suppress risk assets such as equities and be beneficial for the bond market to carry out short - term borrowing and long - term investment strategies. However, the high - level operation of long - term yields also brings uncertainties to the real economy [2]. - The trend of Warsh's policies will become the core variable in the global financial market, and whether his nomination can be confirmed by the Senate is currently the primary uncertainty factor. Subsequently, three key points need to be focused on: the Senate voting result, the possible risk of the Fed's independence caused by Powell's departure, and the switch of the global market trading narrative [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Market Information**: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman. Senate Democrats and some Republicans oppose the nomination. Eurozone Q4 2025 GDP grew 1.3% year - on - year. Japan's Tokyo January core CPI slowed to 2%. South Korea is concerned about the won's depreciation. The US continued to list Japan as a "monitoring object" [1]. - **Core Logic**: If Warsh takes office, the Fed's monetary policy framework may change from the "post - Keynesian data - dependent model" to the "supply - side monetarism" paradigm. The US dollar index may strengthen if US economic data is positive. His policy may suppress risk assets and benefit the bond market [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Warsh's nomination triggered high market volatility. The on - shore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. The change in the Fed's policy framework may reshape market expectations, and the US dollar index may rise [2][3]. - **Stock Index**: The nomination of Warsh led to market fluctuations. Overseas market reactions may affect A - shares in the short term, causing a phased adjustment. The market style may shift from "small - and - medium - cap stocks outperforming" to "large - cap stocks outperforming" [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market's rise was partly due to the stock market's adjustment and policy rumors. Warsh's nomination may lead to a deeper market adjustment. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield may break through 1.80%, and mid - line long positions can consider partial profit - taking [6][7][8]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Near - month contracts are suppressed by weak spot prices, while long - term contracts are supported by geopolitical uncertainties. The market is expected to continue this differentiation [8][9][10]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price first rose and then fell. Global copper inventories continued to rise, but the growth rate slowed. China's power grid investment may increase copper demand. Before the holiday, short - term range trading is recommended [12][13][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum price was affected by funds and emotions, first rising and then falling. Fundamentally, there is pressure on aluminum prices due to increased production and weakening demand. In the long term, the aluminum price is expected to rise. For alumina, the long - term trend is weak, and for cast aluminum alloy, it is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [16][17]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price recovered its previous gains. The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [17]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel fell. They are mainly affected by the market and macro - level emotions. The supply and demand pattern may be affected in the long - term, but the short - term impact is limited [18][19]. - **Tin**: The tin price fell, but there is support at the bottom. The market is in a state of divergence, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [20]. - **Lead**: The lead price was weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range. Selling options to collect stable premiums is recommended [20]. Oils and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The market shows a pattern of strong oils and weak meals. The supply of imported soybeans may have a gap in Q1, and the prices of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal are not optimistic [22][23][24]. - **Oils**: The overall trend of oils is still prone to rise and difficult to fall. Palm oil is facing a pressure test, and the prices of soybean oil and rapeseed oil are affected by supply and demand factors such as production and policies [24][25][26]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil supply is gradually recovering, but the demand is weak. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply is abundant, and the demand is stable. The cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to decline in the long - term, and the pressure on the low - sulfur fuel oil to contract is increasing [28][29]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price is rising weakly. The recent rise is driven by multiple factors, but the supply pressure will increase in the future. The 03 contract may provide a trading opportunity [30]. Precious Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: Warsh's nomination led to a sharp decline in platinum and palladium prices. In the short - term, the "tightening trade" expectation does not change the long - term "loose trade" trend. Attention should be paid to position control [31][33][34]. - **Gold & Silver**: The prices of gold and silver fluctuated sharply. In the short - term, they may enter a phased adjustment period, but in the long - term, they are expected to rise due to factors such as the Fed's policy and the global de - dollarization trend [34][38][39]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The prices of pulp and offset paper futures fell. The decline is due to factors such as the overall bearish sentiment in the commodity market, increased port inventories, and reduced downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see [40][41][42]. - **LPG**: The LPG price is affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is neutral - low, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the risk of price increases [42][43]. - **PTA - PX**: The PX supply is expected to remain high, and the PTA supply is stable. The high processing fee of PTA is expected to be difficult to maintain. It is recommended to buy PX on dips and short the PTA processing fee on highs [43][44]. - **MEG - Bottle Grade Resin**: The demand for ethylene glycol is seasonally weak, and the supply is expected to increase. The price is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [46][47]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market is volatile, mainly affected by geopolitical risks and the improvement of the energy - chemical commodity market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. - **PP**: The PP price is affected by macro - emotions and cost factors. The supply and demand are both decreasing. Attention should be paid to macro - trends and cost changes [49]. - **PE**: The PE price is affected by macro - emotions and cost factors. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the risk of price declines [50]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene are affected by geopolitical factors. The supply of pure benzene is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. The supply of styrene will increase in February, and the demand will decline. It is recommended to wait and see and buy styrene on dips [50][52]. - **Urea**: The urea price is expected to decline in the short - term. It is recommended to close long positions [52]. - **Glass - Soda Ash**: The soda ash supply is expected to be in excess, and the glass market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see [54][56]. - **Propylene**: The propylene price is affected by cost and supply - demand factors. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price is expected to be supported. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran situation [57]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a range - bound state. The supply may increase, and the demand is seasonally weak. The iron ore price is affected by factors such as steel mill restocking and supply and demand [58][59]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price follows the overall market trend. The supply is in a seasonal low, and the demand may increase with the rise of iron - water production [60]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The coking coal market is in a stage of excess supply, and the coke price increase may face difficulties. The short - term price volatility may increase, and the long - term trend depends on domestic mine复产 and downstream demand recovery [62]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are in a range - bound state, with cost support at the bottom and supply - demand pressure at the top [62]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The pig prices in the north rebounded, and those in the south stabilized. The market is expected to see an increase in both supply and demand before the Spring Festival. The specific price trend depends on the actual出栏 volume and terminal consumption [64][65]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar. The domestic cotton price is supported by supply - demand expectations but restricted by the high domestic - foreign price difference. It is recommended to buy on dips [65][66]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price fell, and the domestic sugar price is affected by international prices. The short - term price increase is mainly due to capital factors, and the upward space is limited [66][67][68]. - **Eggs**: The spot egg price is stable at a high level, and the large basis indicates risks after the Spring Festival. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [68]. - **Apples**: The pre - holiday apple stocking accelerated, the spot price was loose, and the futures price was relatively stable. Attention should be paid to the logic of the shortage of delivery goods [69][70]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube supply is abundant, and the demand is the focus. The short - term price may fluctuate at a low level, and the long - term price is under pressure [70][71]. - **Logs**: The log inventory is at a low level, and the spot price is rising. The overall valuation is increasing. It is recommended to sell put options [72][73].

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 2 日 0 / 50 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 金银：沃什被提名为联储新主席 引发金银市场风险释放 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：巨幅回撤后多空争夺剧烈 高波动行情谨慎参与 18 | | 铜：沃什提名美联储主席，铜价快速回撤 19 | | 氧化铝：震荡为主 20 | | 电解铝：警惕资金离场风险 20 | | 铸造铝合金：市场流动性收紧 铝合金随板块回调 21 | | 锌：关注市场情绪变化 22 | | 股指期货：波动不改上行趋势 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：官方 PMI 不及预期 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应总体宽松 | 盘面仍有压力 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价大跌 | 预计国内价格偏弱 6 | | 油脂板块：油脂维持宽度震荡 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货回落，盘面偏弱震荡 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力好转 | 现货整体上涨 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 10 | | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 ...