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2025.12.24 本文字数：547，阅读时长大约1分钟 作者 |一财阿驴 09:29有色金属板块连日走强，白银有色涨超4%，盛达资源、电工合金、兴业银锡、新威凌、北方铜 业、深圳新星等个股跟涨。 09:27中芯国际AH股均涨超2%，据多方媒体报道，公司已经对部分产能实施了涨价，涨幅约为10%。 09:25 A股开盘丨三大指数集体高开 沪指高开0.01%，深成指高开0.07%，创业板指高开0.07%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | sny | 3920.35 | 0.37 | 0.01% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | M | 13378.48 | 9.49 | 0.07% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | NM | 3207.41 | 2.40 | 0.07% | 恒生指数高开0.02%，恒生科技指数涨0.07%，中芯国际涨逾2%，华虹半导体、网易、紫金矿业涨逾 1%。 2026阿驴「躺赢日历」限量发售中12个月，12个我，陪你轻松一整年～ 2 ...

Group 1 - The photovoltaic glass, energy metals, memory storage, gold, and fluorochemical concept stocks are performing strongly [1][3] - The non-ferrous metal sector has been rising for several consecutive days, with silver and non-ferrous metals increasing over 4%, and individual stocks such as Shengda Resources and Northern Copper Industries also seeing gains [1] - SMIC's A-shares and H-shares have both risen over 2%, with reports indicating a price increase of approximately 10% on some of its production capacity [1][4] Group 2 - The A-shares opened with all three major indices rising slightly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.07%, and the ChiNext Index also up 0.07% [2][3] - The Hong Kong stock market opened with the Hang Seng Index up 0.02% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 0.07%, with notable gains in stocks like SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor [4][5] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 260 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, while 468 billion yuan of reverse repos are set to mature today [3]

有色金属日报 2025-12-24 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 【行情资讯】 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 陈仪方 从业资格号：F03152004 0755-23375125 chenyf3@wkqh.cn 离岸人民币走强，美元指数偏弱，贵金属延续上涨，铜价创历史新高，昨日伦铜收涨 1.21%至 12055 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 94890 元/吨。LME 库存增加 825 至 158525 吨，注 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "involution" in the Chinese economy, highlighting its causes, impacts, and policy responses, emphasizing the need for structural reforms to enhance economic quality and stability [3][5][6]. Group 1: Causes and Impacts of Involution - The current "involution" is characterized by long-term negative growth in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and low capacity utilization rates in mid- and downstream industries, which squeeze corporate profits and hinder industrial upgrades [3][5]. - The deep-rooted causes of this "involution" include the differentiation of old and new economic drivers during the economic transition period and the chaotic competition among local governments pursuing GDP and fiscal revenue [5][6]. - The "involution" phenomenon has created a spiral contraction cycle of "price-income-consumption," severely restricting healthy economic development and transformation [5][6]. Group 2: Policy Responses and Recommendations - To address the "involution," policies should focus on both supply and demand sides, combining growth stabilization with reform promotion, which benefits both the present and the long term [6][11]. - Supply-side measures include production adjustment, elimination of backward production capacity, and improving product quality to restore prices and enhance competitiveness [6][11]. - Demand-side strategies should promote resident service consumption through fiscal subsidies and social security improvements to unleash consumption potential, while guiding employment from manufacturing to services [6][11]. Group 3: Evolution of Anti-Involution Policies - Since mid-2024, high-level meetings have consistently addressed the need to combat "involutionary" competition, with significant policy decisions made to regulate local government and corporate behaviors [7][8]. - The 2025 government work report outlined specific actions to establish a unified national market and comprehensively address "involutionary" competition [8][11]. - The current anti-involution policies are characterized by a higher stance, broader coverage, and stronger synergy compared to previous supply-side reforms, with a focus on both local governments and enterprises [11][12]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Context and Industry Characteristics - The macroeconomic environment is under pressure from continuously declining prices, with the PPI experiencing negative growth for 33 consecutive months, and industrial capacity utilization rates at historical lows [14][16]. - The profitability of industrial enterprises is under significant pressure, with many industries, particularly in the mid- and downstream sectors, experiencing negative profit growth [16][19]. - The "involution" is more pronounced in mid- and downstream industries, where the competition has intensified, leading to a decline in profitability and increased cost pressures [19][21]. Group 5: Structural Issues and Future Directions - The article emphasizes the need for structural reforms to break the cycle of "price-income-consumption" contraction, advocating for a shift from an investment-driven to an innovation-driven economy [20][42]. - The service sector is identified as a key area for absorbing employment and addressing structural unemployment, with significant potential for growth in service consumption [42][43]. - Policies should focus on enhancing service sector development, improving social security systems, and optimizing service industry regulations to stimulate demand and support economic transformation [37][42].

Core Viewpoint - The company, as a non-ferrous metal smelting enterprise, indicates that its raw material pricing follows the industry standard of "product market price minus processing fees," which means that fluctuations in metal prices directly impact profitability [1] Group 1 - The company's profit levels are positively influenced by rising prices of metals such as gold, silver, and copper [1] - Conversely, declines in the prices of these metals can adversely affect the company's profits [1]

Core Viewpoint - The casting aluminum market is experiencing a weak trend, influenced by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions, leading to increased market volatility and cautious trading behavior [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for casting aluminum alloy (2602) closed at 21,265 yuan, down 35 yuan, with a decline of 0.16% [1]. - The trading volume for the day was 5,739 lots, an increase of 1,145 lots, while the open interest decreased by 1,166 lots to 16,018 lots [1]. - The average price for casting aluminum alloy ingots (A356.2) was reported at 23,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, with rising demand from recycling aluminum enterprises, which supports the price of scrap aluminum [2]. - Despite some price declines in certain aluminum alloy varieties, the purchasing enthusiasm from downstream enterprises has increased, indicating a relatively active market atmosphere [2]. - The overall industry profit remains low due to high inventory levels and a surplus supply environment, despite the strong cost support from scrap aluminum prices [2]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Influences - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine situation, have heightened market risk aversion [1]. - The U.S. government's actions regarding Venezuela have further escalated market tensions, contributing to a cautious outlook among traders [1]. - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on further interest rate cuts adds to the uncertainty in the market, particularly during the low trading activity typical of the Christmas week [1].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价窄幅震荡，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美联储官员就明年 | | | 降息预期继续产生较大分歧，但市场关注点在于美联储明年新上任主席能否维系美联储 | | | 货币政策独立性。国内方面，中国 LPR 连续七个月维持不变。消息面，据 Mysteel，12 | | | 月 19 日，中国铜冶炼厂代表与 Antofagasta 敲定 2026 年铜精矿长单加工费 Benchmark 为 | | | 0 美元/吨与 0 美分/磅。库存方面，LME 库存下降 2650 吨至 157750 吨；Comex 库存增 | | 铜 | 加 4247 吨至 423556 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 2803 吨至 48542 吨，BC 铜仓单维持 1053 吨。 | | | 需求方面，铜价再度走高，下游企业采购转为谨慎，成交以刚需为主。日央行加息市场 | | | 反馈是"靴子落地"，并未引起较大波澜，结合美联储降息和购债呵护，宏观维系偏暖氛 | | | 围，宽松叙事结构下铜 ...

首席点评： 有色新高，能化亮眼 中国 LPR 连续七个月维持不变，12 月 5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.5%，1 年期 LPR 为 3%。 中国央行：单笔逾期金额在 1 万元以下可一次性修复个人信用，明年 1 月 1 日起 正式实施。特朗普"钦点"理事米兰：美联储明年不继续降息就有衰退风险；美联 储明年票委放鹰：未来几个月内没必要降息，11 月 CPI 被低估。金银铜齐创历 史新高，黄金盘中涨超 2%、时隔两月再创新高，白银和伦铜连续两日创新高，现 货白银一度涨超 3%，伦铜四连涨；报道显示美国发力封锁委内瑞拉石油出口，原 油四连涨至逾一周新高，盘中涨近 3%。 重点品种：贵金属，原油，油脂 贵金属：国际黄金白银刷新历史新高。美国 11 月 CPI 同比 2.7%，低于预期的 3.1%，核心 CPI 同比 2.6%，低于预期的 3%。CPI 大幅不及预期，引发市场质疑， 但 CPI 整体下行趋势为降息提供空间。美国 11 月非农数据分化，新增就业人口 6.4 万人，好于市场预期的 5 万人，但失业率上行至 4.6%。疲软的就业数据支持 美联储继续降息，流动性宽松预期仍对贵金属价格形成提振。从长期角度来看， ...

| 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/12/22 | -106.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/19 | -98.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/18 | -90.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/17 | -83.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/16 | -74.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 12 月 23 日） 一、动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 期货研究报告 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2025/12/22 2025/12/19 2025/12/18 2025/12/17 2025/12/1 ...