Core Viewpoint - China Dajie Nonferrous Metals (00661) experienced a significant stock price increase, rising over 16% in the afternoon trading session, attributed to positive developments in the domestic smelting sector aimed at reducing competition and improving profitability [1] Industry Summary - The CSPT's third-quarter general manager meeting reached a consensus on several measures to combat excessive competition, including the establishment of a user BM system, resisting the use of average pricing by traders and smelters, and initiating a blacklist system [1] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association suggested considering a production capacity ceiling for major metals such as copper, lead, and zinc, drawing lessons from the electrolytic aluminum sector [1] - According to Dongfang Securities, the expected implementation of "anti-involution" measures is likely to slow the growth of midstream smelting capacity, potentially leading to an upward adjustment in smelting fees in the medium term [1] Company Summary - China Dajie Nonferrous Metals reported a revenue decline of over 10% in the first half of the year, primarily due to the accelerated release of concentrated smelting capacity domestically and internationally, tight supply of copper concentrate, persistently low smelting processing fees, and reduced product output [1]

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 11 月 5 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：美股大跌影响情绪 A 股再试支撑 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：央行小幅购债，外围风偏回落 4 | | 豆粕：供应压力仍存 | 价格阶段性调整 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：外盘再次大跌 | 郑糖价格弱势 6 | | 油脂板块：震荡磨底阶段 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货反弹，盘面高位震荡 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力较大 | 价格阶段性回落 9 | | 花生：花生现货继续反弹，花生短期底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：淘鸡有所增加 | 蛋价有所企稳 10 | | 苹果：入库数据即将公布 | 市场交易入库预期 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：收购进入高峰 | 棉价震荡略偏强 12 | | 钢材：铁水产量收缩，钢价区间震荡 14 | | --- | | 双焦：震荡整理 等待回调后做多的机会 14 | | 铁矿：偏空思路对待 15 | | 铁合金：库存持续攀升，继续逢高做空 16 | | 贵金属：美元延续涨势，贵金属市场承压 17 | | --- | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, after a continuous rise, the hot sectors are rotating rapidly, with technology remaining the market's main line. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the central bank's restart of trading treasury bonds is short - term positive for the bond market sentiment. In the fourth quarter, the bond market is mainly affected by fundamentals, the implementation time of fund fee regulations, and institutional allocation power. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [7]. - For precious metals, with the Fed's indication of future easing policies, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are provided [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different outlooks. For example, copper prices are expected to be supported at the bottom; aluminum prices may be supported by supply - side disturbances; zinc and lead are expected to be strong in the short - term; nickel is recommended to be observed in the short - term; tin is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to go long on dips; the lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate after a correction; alumina is recommended to be observed; stainless steel is expected to continue to be weak; and casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strongly supported [12][14][17][19][21][24][26][29][30][32]. - For black building materials, steel demand is in the off - season, but future demand may recover. Iron ore prices are at risk of a phased decline. Glass and soda ash markets have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Manganese silicon and silicon iron are likely to follow the black sector's trend. Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices are affected by supply and demand and are expected to be weak in the short - term [35][37][39][41][45][47][50]. - For energy chemicals, rubber is recommended for short - term long trading with a stop - loss set. Oil prices are recommended to be observed in the short - term. Methanol, urea, and PVC are recommended to be observed. Pure benzene and styrene prices may stop falling. Ethylene glycol is recommended to be shorted on rallies. PTA is recommended to focus on processing fee repair opportunities. PX is recommended to be observed as it mainly follows crude oil fluctuations [56][58][60][63][65][70][72][75]. - For agricultural products, it is recommended to short pigs on rallies; eggs are expected to be strong in the short - term; bean and rapeseed meal are expected to rise in the short - term and be shorted on rebounds in the medium - term; palm oil is recommended to be treated as oscillating weakly before exports improve; sugar is recommended to be shorted after a rebound; and cotton is expected to continue to oscillate [83][85][88][90][93][95]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The central bank conducted 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on November 5th. The 2025 6G Development Conference will be held in Beijing from November 13th - 14th. Apple tightened its China - region distribution channels. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley warned of a decline in the US stock market in the next two years, while expressing continued interest in China from global capital allocators [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different terms are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After a continuous rise, the hot sectors are rotating rapidly, with technology remaining the main line. The long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On November 3rd, Fed governors mentioned potential interest rate cuts. US financial system liquidity is approaching a dangerous level. On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 117.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 357.8 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The central bank's restart of trading treasury bonds is short - term positive for the bond market. In the fourth quarter, the bond market is affected by multiple factors and is expected to oscillate and recover [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver prices fell. COMEX gold and silver prices are provided. US 10 - year treasury bond yields and the US dollar index are given. The Fed is expected to expand its balance sheet, and silver demand in India is strong [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the Fed's indication of future easing policies, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips, and the reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are provided [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The US dollar index reached 100, and copper prices continued to correct. LME copper inventory increased, and domestic spot trading showed different situations. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 700 yuan/ton [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although sentiment is under pressure, it is expected to be supported. The copper supply is expected to be marginally tight, providing strong support for copper prices. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper are provided [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The decline in precious metals and copper prices led to a decline in aluminum price optimism. LME aluminum and Shanghai aluminum prices fell. Aluminum inventories showed different trends, and the spot was at a discount to the futures [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase in electrolytic aluminum production and the improvement in trade and inventory conditions are expected to support aluminum prices. Short - term support levels are to be noted [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index rose slightly, and LME zinc prices also increased. Zinc inventories and basis data are provided [15][16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic zinc mine inventory declined, and zinc production decreased. Downstream demand was stable, and inventories were slowly increasing. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will be strong in the short - term, but the upside space is limited [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index fell slightly, and LME lead prices decreased. Lead inventories and basis data are provided [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead ore inventory declined, and lead production showed different trends. Downstream demand was weak, and inventories were at a low level. It is expected that Shanghai lead will be strong in the short - term [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillated and fell. Spot prices and cost data are provided [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Refined nickel inventory pressure is significant, and nickel prices are dragged down. In the long - term, nickel prices may be supported. Short - term observation is recommended, and long positions can be considered at appropriate prices [21]. Tin - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin prices fell. Tin inventories increased, and supply was affected by raw material shortages. Demand from emerging fields provided support [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term tin supply - demand is in a tight balance, and prices are expected to oscillate. It is recommended to go long on dips, and the reference operating ranges are provided [24]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The lithium carbonate spot index and futures prices fell. The production and sales of new energy vehicles increased [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals lack continuous positive factors. After a correction, the market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to ore prices and production schedules [26]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell, and trading volume increased. Basis, overseas prices, and inventory data are provided [27][28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Ore prices may be under pressure after the rainy season. Alumina production capacity is in excess, but the current price is close to the cost line. Short - term observation is recommended, and the reference operating range is provided [29]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell, and trading volume increased. Spot prices and raw material prices are provided [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of stainless steel spot is relatively firm, but the demand is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the price is expected to continue to be weak [30]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum alloy prices fell, and trading volume decreased. Inventory data are provided [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of casting aluminum alloy has strong support, and supply is tight. Prices are expected to be strongly supported [32]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices fell. Futures and spot prices, as well as inventory and trading volume data, are provided [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market was weak, and steel prices oscillated weakly. Although demand is in the off - season, it may recover in the future with policy implementation and macro - environment changes [35]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices fell, and trading volume increased. Spot prices and basis data are provided [36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased, and demand weakened. Inventory pressure increased. There is a risk of a phased decline in ore prices [37]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Market Information**: Glass prices rose, and inventory decreased. Trading volume data are provided [38]. - **Glass Strategy Viewpoint**: Market sentiment was boosted, but the fundamentals are weak. The impact of policies and production cuts needs to be observed [39]. - **Soda Ash Market Information**: Soda ash prices fell, and inventory decreased. Trading volume data are provided [40]. - **Soda Ash Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry's high - capacity utilization rate and weak demand lead to weak price trends. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [41]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices fell. Spot prices and basis data are provided [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Macro events did not provide strong support for the market. The black sector's rebound was adjusted. Manganese silicon and silicon iron are likely to follow the black sector's trend [43][44][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fell, and trading volume increased. Spot prices and basis data are provided [46]. - **Industrial Silicon Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of industrial silicon is under pressure, and demand is weakening. Prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, but cost support exists [47]. - **Polysilicon Market Information**: Polysilicon prices fell, and trading volume decreased. Spot prices and basis data are provided [48][49]. - **Polysilicon Strategy Viewpoint**: Polysilicon production is expected to decline, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally. Attention should be paid to platform company progress [50]. Energy Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were weakly sorted. There were different views on the rise and fall of rubber prices. Tire production and inventory data, as well as spot prices, are provided [52][53][54][55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Rubber prices are near the previous low. Short - term long trading with a stop - loss set is recommended, and partial hedging positions can be established [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices fell. Inventory data are provided [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although geopolitical premiums have disappeared, oil prices should not be overly shorted in the short - term. A range strategy is maintained, and short - term observation is recommended [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices fell, and basis data are provided [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Port prices fell, and inventory was high. Supply increased, and demand weakened. Observation is recommended [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices showed different trends in different regions, and basis data are provided [61][62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Urea supply and demand increased, but the market is in a relatively loose pattern. Observation is recommended [63]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene and styrene prices showed different trends. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Pure benzene and styrene prices may stop falling. The BZN spread has room for upward repair [65]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices fell, and cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [67][68]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices fell, and cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply is high, and inventory is expected to increase. It is recommended to short on rallies [70]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose, and cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply is expected to decrease, and demand is expected to be stable. Attention should be paid to PTA processing fee repair opportunities [72]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose, and cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [73][74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: p - Xylene supply is high, and demand is weak. PXN is expected to be under pressure in November. Observation is recommended [75]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PE prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. The impact of cost and supply - demand factors needs to be considered [77]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PP prices are affected by cost and supply - demand factors. The market is in a weak pattern, and short - term observation is recommended [79][80]. Agricultural Products Category Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices continued to fall, and supply and demand factors are provided [82]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short pigs on rallies. Cautious investors can use reverse - spread positions [83]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable, and supply and demand factors are provided [84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices are expected to be strong in the short - term. Observation or short - term trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to upper - level pressure [85]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices fell, and domestic soybean and bean meal supply, demand, and cost data are provided [86][87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Bean meal prices are expected to rise in the short - term and be shorted on rebounds in the medium - term [88]. Oils - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm oil production and export data are provided. Domestic oil consumption is expected to enter the peak season, and inventory is expected to decrease seasonally [89]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Palm oil prices are expected to be oscillating weakly before exports improve. A change in strategy can be considered if production declines [90]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices oscillated, and Brazilian sugar production data are provided [91][92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short sugar after a rebound due to strong supply and weak external market trends [93]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices oscillated, and supply, demand, and price data are provided [94]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Cotton prices are expected to continue to oscillate due to weak fundamentals [95].

证券日报网讯株冶集团11月4日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2025年10月31日，公司股东总 户数约为4.13万户。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Core Viewpoint - Toho Zinc plans to increase refined lead production in the second half of the 2025/26 fiscal year to 41,300 tons, a 10.5% increase from 37,369 tons in the same period last year [1] Production Plans - The production for the first half of the fiscal year is reported at 39,700 tons [1] - The second half of the fiscal year runs from October 2025 to March 2026 [1] Business Strategy - Toho Zinc has suspended major facilities at its Annaka smelting and refining plant in northern Tokyo by the end of March 2025, marking its exit from the zinc smelting business [1] - The announcement of the production plan was delayed this year to allow time for analysis of the reasons behind the production decline in the first half of the fiscal year and to consider countermeasures [1]

Group 1: Metal Price Information - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 86,590, down 250; SMM flat - water copper premium is - 45, down 15 [1] - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 21,440, unchanged; SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 10, down 10 [1] - Alumina (Shanxi) average price is 2,840, down 5; Australian alumina FOB average price is 318 dollars, down 1 dollar [1] - SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 17,250, up 25; SMM 1 lead ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 170, down 45 [1] - Recycled refined aluminum average price is 17,175, up 25; recycled lead average price increase is 25; refined - scrap spread is 75, unchanged [1] - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 22,580, up 230; SMM 0 zinc ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 60, down 30 [1] - SMM 1 tin average price is 285,400, unchanged; SMM 1 tin premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 370, down 240 [1] - 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price is 273,400, unchanged; 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan)/SMM 1 tin ratio is 95.80% [1] - 1 imported nickel average price is 120,950, down 200; 1 imported nickel premium to the Shanghai nickel contract average price is 400, unchanged [1] - SMM electrowinning nickel average price is 120,600, down 200; SMM electrowinning nickel premium average price is 50, unchanged [1] - 1 Jinchuan nickel average price is 123,150, down 200; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium to the Shanghai nickel contract average price is 2,600, unchanged [1] - Oxygen - through 421 (Xinjiang) average price is 9,050, unchanged; Oxygen - through 421 (Xinjiang) premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 1,300, down 95 [1] - N - type polysilicon re - feedstock average price is 52.2, down 0.05; N - type polysilicon dense material average price is 51, unchanged [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 80,900, down 100; Battery - grade lithium carbonate premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 2,180, up 1,680 [1] - Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 78,700; the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,200, unchanged [1] Group 2: Analyst Information - Chief analyst Dian Shi is responsible for copper and tin, with qualification number F3047773 and investment consulting number Z0014087 [1] - Senior analyst Liu Dongbo is in charge of aluminum, alumina, and gold, with qualification number F3062795 and investment consulting number Z0015311 [1] - Senior analyst Wu Jiang is responsible for nickel and stainless steel, silver, and lithium carbonate, with qualification number F3085524 and investment consulting number Z0016394 [1] - Intermediate analyst Sun Fangfang is in charge of lead and zinc, with qualification number F03111330 and investment consulting number Z0018905 [1] - Intermediate analyst Zhang Xiurui is responsible for industrial silicon, with qualification number F03099436 and investment consulting number Z0021022 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. The bond market is not pessimistic in the medium - and short - term, but the repair rhythm may slow down. Different commodities have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, macro - economic factors, and other aspects [19][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The Shanghai Composite Index has support at the 3950 gap. The stock index will maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to go long at low levels near 3950 and reduce positions at high levels above 4000. Consider the IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage and bull spread options at low levels [19][20]. - **Treasury Futures**: The repair rhythm of treasury futures slows down, and there is a slight adjustment. It is recommended to go long on the TL contract at low levels on a short - term basis, short the 30Y - 7Y term spread and the current - next quarterly spread, and pay attention to the potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The supply remains high, and there is still inventory pressure. It is recommended to take a bearish view on the far - month contracts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use the short strangle strategy for options [27]. - **Sugar**: The new - season sugar is priced at 5700 yuan/ton, and the international sugar price rebounds. It is recommended to build long positions in the short - term for Zheng sugar, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [35]. - **Oils and Fats**: The sector is in the bottom - grinding stage. It is recommended to try long positions at low levels after the bearish factors are exhausted, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [38]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - contract corn on dips, close the long positions of the 01 - contract corn and wait for dips for the 05 and 07 - contract corn, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [40]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure continues to be reflected, and the price continues to fall. It is recommended to build a small number of short positions, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use the short strangle strategy for options [42][43]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price rebounds, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom in the short - term. It is recommended to try long positions lightly on the 01 and 05 - contract peanuts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [46]. - **Eggs**: The number of culled chickens increases, and the egg price stabilizes. It is recommended to close the previous short positions and stay on the sidelines, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [51]. - **Apples**: The quality of the new - season apples is poor, but the merchants' procurement is active. It is recommended to go long on the far - month contracts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The acquisition enters the peak period, and the cotton price fluctuates slightly stronger. It is recommended to expect the cotton price to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short - term, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [60]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The molten iron output shrinks, and the steel price fluctuates within a range. It is recommended to maintain the range - bound trading, go long on the coil - rebar spread at low levels, and stay on the sidelines for options [63][64]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They fluctuate at high levels. It is recommended to wait for the correction and then go long, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [66]. - **Iron Ore**: Take a bearish view. It is recommended to go short, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [68]. - **Ferroalloys**: The inventory continues to rise. It is recommended to go short on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money straddle option combination [71][72]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Multiple factors are intertwined, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to trade in a band - trading manner, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [75]. - **Copper**: The manufacturing PMI in Europe and the US is lower than expected, and the copper price pulls back in the short - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 85000 - 86000 yuan/ton and the resistance level of 90000 yuan/ton, continue to hold the inter - market cash - and - carry arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [79][81]. - **Alumina**: The supply - side production cut has not been implemented, and the price is weak. It is recommended to expect a weak and volatile trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The macro and fundamental factors resonate, and the aluminum price is strong. It is recommended to expect the aluminum price to rise in an oscillatory manner, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [87]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The seasonal peak season arrives, and the alloy price rises with the aluminum price. It is recommended to expect the alloy price to rise with the aluminum price, consider the long AD short AL arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [90]. - **Zinc**: Hold the profitable long positions. It is recommended to hold the long positions, consider the buy SHFE sell LME operation, and stay on the sidelines for options [95]. - **Lead**: Pay attention to the resumption of production of secondary lead. It is recommended to focus on the resumption process, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [97].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.2%, gaining 52 points to reach 26,210 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.20%. The early trading volume in Hong Kong was HKD 120.4 billion [1] - Baidu Group's autonomous driving service platform, "萝卜快跑," reported over 250,000 weekly orders as of October 31, with 100% being fully autonomous orders, leading to a more than 6% increase in Baidu's stock price [1] - Tencent established a new company, "阅漫网络科技," in Hainan, resulting in a 1.67% increase in Tencent's stock price [2] Group 2 - Coal stocks continued to rise, with institutions optimistic about the coal cycle and potential price increases due to stricter safety regulations. "力量发展" rose by 5.84% and "易大宗" by 4.6% [2] - Huazhu Group's stock increased by 4.95% following the launch of its "全季大观" brand, with institutions viewing the brand upgrade positively [3] - Minmetals Group's stock rose over 5% after announcing that its subsidiary received orders for AI server liquid cooling products [4] Group 3 - Jiangxi Copper's stock fell by over 3% due to a decline in copper concentrate smelting fees affecting gross margins, although institutions expect the overall impact to be manageable [5] - Gold stocks continued to weaken, with spot gold prices dropping below USD 3,980, leading to declines in stocks like Lingbao Gold by 5% and Jihai Resources by 4.96% [5] - Stablecoin-related stocks collectively declined, with Guotai Junan International falling by 12% and Lion King Holdings by 3.6% [5]

（原标题：港股异动 | 江西铜业股份(00358)现跌超4% 铜精矿冶炼加工费下滑拖累毛利 机构预计影响总 体可控） 智通财经APP获悉，江西铜业股份(00358)现跌超4%，截至发稿，跌3.91%，报30港元，成交额2.62亿港 元。 消息面上，江西铜业此前发布业绩，公司第三季度营业收入1390.88亿元，同比增长14.09%；净利润 18.49亿元，同比增长35.2%；扣非归母净利润19.1亿元，同比增长94.7%。三季度公司毛利润40.8亿元， 环比下降11亿元，主因铜精矿冶炼加工费下滑。 国信证券发布研报称，全球铜精矿供应愈加紧张。当前长单加工费和现货加工费劈叉，现货加工费 在-40美元/吨以下，长单加工费在21美元/吨。冶炼厂全部使用长单盈利尚可，如果使用部分现货，冶炼 利润就会受到影响。对于江西铜业而言，2025年阴极铜产量目标237万吨，前三季度产量估计180万吨， 四季度生产压力不大。另外公司可以一定程度上灵活选择铜精矿、冷料的使用配比，预计四季度加工费 压力不会显著增加。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The US manufacturing sector has been in decline for eight consecutive months, with the manufacturing PMI at 48.7, indicating continued weakness in the real - economy and putting pressure on the US economy, which may require a loose monetary policy. The dollar index is expected to remain volatile [3][19][21]. - Gold prices are oscillating around $4000. With the implementation of domestic tax policies, the purchase cost of jewelry and gold bars has increased. Multiple Fed officials' statements suggest that a December rate cut is not the baseline scenario, and short - term gold prices lack direct positive factors and are in a correction trend [2][15]. - The stock market showed a small - volume increase. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to 3976.52 points. The market is expected to continue to oscillate around 4000 points on the Shanghai Composite Index [23][24]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, the supply - demand situation of agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals varies, and investment suggestions are provided accordingly [4][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 10 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1. Fed officials have different views on interest - rate policies. Gold prices are oscillating around $4000, and short - term gold prices face a risk of decline [13][15][16]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US government shutdown is approaching the longest record in history, and Peru has severed diplomatic relations with Mexico. The US manufacturing activity has been in decline for eight consecutive months, and the dollar index is expected to remain volatile [17][19][22]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market had a small - volume increase. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to 3976.52 points. The Ministry of Finance has established a new Debt Management Department. The market is expected to continue to oscillate around 4000 points on the Shanghai Composite Index, and it is recommended to allocate long positions in stock indices evenly [23][24][25]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 10 - month ISM manufacturing PMI has been in decline for eight consecutive months. Fed officials have different stances on a December rate cut. The US economy is in a downward trend, and the technology sector is strong, supporting the index to oscillate at a high level. Short - term, the market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and a bullish approach is recommended [26][28][29]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's October S&P manufacturing PMI was 50.6, showing a slowdown in the expansion. The central bank conducted a 783 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse - repurchase operation. The bond market is expected to oscillate with a slightly bullish trend, but the upward space is limited [30][31][32]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean sowing progress is behind schedule. The domestic soybean - meal inventory is sufficient, and the possibility of a supply gap in China is greatly reduced with the increase in US soybean imports. It is not recommended to blindly go long on soybean meal, and future attention should be paid to the actual situation of US soybean imports and the weather in Brazilian production areas [4][33][35]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Indian sugar mills are applying for opening, and the new sugar in Yunnan has a listed price. The market has optimistic expectations for the new - season sugar production in India and Thailand. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate in the short term, and a long position in the 1 - 5 contract spread can be held [36][38][39]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - Red dates in Xinjiang are starting to be harvested. The futures price of the main contract has a small increase. The new - season red - date production is uncertain, and it is recommended to wait and see [40][41]. 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Shijiazhuang has issued a heavy - pollution weather orange warning and launched a level - II emergency response. Steel prices are oscillating weakly, and it is recommended to adopt an oscillating approach [42][44][45]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The Canadian prime minister said that China would not immediately cancel tariffs on Canadian goods. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia has reached a two - year high. The oil market showed a differentiated trend, and corresponding investment suggestions are provided for rapeseed oil and palm oil [46][47][48]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in northern ports is stable. The coal price is expected to be stable and slightly bullish in the short term, and attention should be paid to winter weather changes and November long - term contract policies [49]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The profit of domestic importers of cassava starch has increased. It is recommended to conduct band trading [50]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - An Australian iron - ore project has made new progress. The iron - ore price is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to maintain a weakly oscillating approach [51][52]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices are rising. It is recommended to go short lightly at high prices and pay attention to wheat auction policies [53][54]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The supply surplus of alumina has narrowed. It is recommended to wait and see [55][56]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory has decreased, and the domestic lead - ingot social inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. Short - term, lead prices may remain strong, but chasing long positions requires caution [58]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A zinc - mining project has started construction. The zinc price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and corresponding investment strategies are provided [60][61]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Global investors are calling for the establishment of an international mineral institution. Chile's copper production has rebounded. Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to lay out long positions at low prices [62][63][65]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium - carbonate project in Hunan has started, and the output of an Argentine lithium project has tripled. Lithium - carbonate prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices in the medium term [66][68][69]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - A nickel - producing company's output has increased. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a narrow range, and corresponding investment suggestions are provided [70][71][73]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Brazil's oil production has increased. Oil prices lack the power to rebound in the short term [74][75]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt inventories in factories and social warehouses have decreased. Asphalt prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [76][77]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - The spot price of methanol in Taicang has dropped significantly. It is recommended to hold short positions and add short positions on rebounds [78][79]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has fluctuated. The supply of caustic soda is relatively loose in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether supply will decrease due to profit compression [80][81]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The operating rate of compound fertilizers has increased. The urea market is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the release rhythm of reserve and speculative demand in the medium term [82][83]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp has adjusted slightly upwards. The pulp price is expected to have limited upward space [84][85]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of pure benzene in East China has increased, and the inventory of styrene in East China has decreased. The valuation of the pure - benzene industry chain is restricted, and attention should be paid to the inventory increase in East China's pure - benzene main port [88][89]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda - ash manufacturers' inventories have decreased slightly. The downward space of the soda - ash price in the short term depends on coal - price fluctuations and new - capacity launches, and a bearish approach is recommended in the medium term [90]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Shahe has increased slightly. The glass price is expected to have large fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [91][92]. 2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The US will suspend special port fees and additional tariffs for one year. The SCFIS (European route) has declined. The container - freight - rate market is expected to have large fluctuations, and it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities after a callback [93][94].