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五矿期货黑色建材日报-20251203
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-12-03 02:44
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the production reduction rhythm and the tone of important meetings [2]. - For iron ore, the overall inventory is still high, but there are structural contradictions. The price is expected to operate within a fluctuating range, and changes in the overall commodity environment should be noted [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point. Looking for opportunities to rebound may be more cost - effective than short - selling [10][11]. - Industrial silicon is in a weak short - term operation, with a pattern of weak supply and demand. Its price is easily affected by the capital sentiment of other new energy varieties [14]. - For polysilicon, the current situation remains weak. There are uncertainties in the delivery game of near - month contracts, and attention should be paid to the final establishment of platform companies [17]. - For glass, the industry is still in the bottom - finding stage, and the market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to consider shorting at high prices [20]. - For soda ash, the price is expected to remain stable in the short term, but it should still be regarded as bearish before the demand side shows significant improvement [22]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3133 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3325 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.06%) from the previous trading day [1]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Rebar's supply and demand both decreased, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil production increased, apparent demand declined slightly, and inventory decreased only slightly. South Korea's anti - dumping tax on Chinese steel will affect exports [2]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 800.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.06% (- 0.50). The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 46.30 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.47% [4]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Overseas iron ore shipments were stable. Australian shipments decreased slightly, Brazilian shipments increased significantly, and non - mainstream country shipments decreased slightly. The daily average hot - metal output decreased, the number of blast furnace overhauls increased, and the steel mill profitability rate was at a low level. Port inventory increased, and steel mill inventory decreased slightly [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price Information**: On December 2, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.03% at 5722 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.33% at 5448 yuan/ton [7][9]. - **Market Situation**: Affected by the weak sentiment of coking coal, ferroalloys continued to be weak. However, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of market sentiment [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The main contract (SI2601) of industrial silicon closed at 8975 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.86% (- 170). The spot price of East China non - oxygen 553 was 9350 yuan/ton, with a basis of 375 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The weekly output of industrial silicon continued to decline, and the marginal decline slowed down. The demand for polysilicon decreased, the demand for silicone was stable in the short term, and the export of silicon - aluminum alloy decreased significantly [14]. Polysilicon - **Price Information**: The main contract (PS2601) of polysilicon closed at 56315 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.41% (- 1390). The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 3965 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The production of polysilicon is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The downstream silicon wafer production reduction is expected to increase, and the inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve [17]. Glass - **Price Information**: The main contract of glass closed at 1034 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, with a change of - 0.19% (- 2). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 941,000 boxes week - on - week (- 1.49%) [19]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The supply side has shrunk, but the overall spot market trading atmosphere is still light, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [20]. Soda Ash - **Price Information**: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1183 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, with a change of + 0.60% (+ 7). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 57,000 tons week - on - week (- 1.49%) [21]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The industry's operating load increased slightly, the inventory decreased slightly, the demand for light soda ash was relatively stable, and the demand for heavy soda ash was weak. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term, but it should be regarded as bearish [22].
中原证券晨会聚焦-20251203
Zhongyuan Securities· 2025-12-03 00:09
分析师:张刚 登记编码:S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源:Wind,中原证券 -13% -7% -1% 4% 10% 16% 22% 28% 2024.12 2025.04 2025.08 2025.11 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,897.71 | | -0.42 | | 深证成指 | | | 13,056.70 | -0.68 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,554.33 | | -0.48 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,425.70 | | -0.54 | | 中证 | 500 | 7, ...
黑色产业链日报-20251202
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-12-02 13:03
Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Overall, the cost of raw materials supports the prices of finished steel products, and profits are gradually improving. The steel market may anticipate future trends, leading to a slightly upward - trending price movement. The expected price range for rebar is between 3000 - 3300 yuan/ton, and for hot - rolled coil, it is between 3200 - 3500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed and downstream consumption. However, a decline in steel enterprise profitability may trigger negative feedback [3]. - In the short term, the fundamentals of iron ore have improved, and its valuation has been restored. The price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. There is no significant supply - demand contradiction currently, and the accumulation rate of port inventory has slowed down [22]. - For coking coal, the supply change is limited, but due to the pressure on terminal steel mill profits and the continuous reduction of molten iron production, the supply - demand balance has shifted to a slight surplus. Short - term coal prices will remain under pressure. For coke, as the cost of coking coal decreases, the profit of coking enterprises has been restored, and subsequent coke supply is expected to increase, potentially leading to inventory accumulation [35]. - Ferroalloys face high inventory and weak demand. Although the cost may decrease due to the impact of coking coal supply guarantee, the supply reduction trend limits the downward price space. It is expected to oscillate weakly. Although the strength of finished steel prices may drive a short - term rebound, ferroalloys are likely to return to their weak fundamentals after the rebound [51]. - Soda ash is mainly priced based on cost. Without a trend - based production reduction, its valuation lacks upward flexibility. The acceleration of glass cold - repair has weakened the rigid demand for soda ash. Although exports remain high, the high inventory of the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price [67]. - In December, there are expectations of glass production line cold - repair, which will affect long - term pricing and market expectations. The near - term contract will follow the current market situation. Recently, due to the acceleration of cold - repair and the expected decline in daily melting volume, the short - term price of glass has strengthened, but the sustainability is uncertain. High inventory levels during the off - season pose pressure on the spot market [92]. Summary by Category Steel - **Futures Price**: On December 2, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3133 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 3169 yuan/ton, and 10 contract was 3208 yuan/ton. The closing price of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3325 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 3322 yuan/ton, and 10 contract was 3338 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot Price**: On December 2, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3331 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3310 yuan/ton [9][11]. - **Price Difference**: The 01 contract spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 192 yuan/ton, and the spot price difference in Shanghai was 10 yuan/ton [16]. Iron Ore - **Futures Price**: On December 2, 2025, the closing price of 01 contract was 800.5 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 775.5 yuan/ton, and 09 contract was 751.5 yuan/ton [23]. - **Spot Price**: On December 2, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 797 yuan/ton, Rizhao Carajas powder was 890 yuan/ton, and Rizhao Super Special powder was 690 yuan/ton [23]. - **Fundamentals**: As of November 28, 2025, the daily average molten iron production was 234.68 tons, 45 - port cargo clearance volume was 330.58 tons, and the global shipping volume was 3323.2 tons [30]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Spread**: On December 2, 2025, the 09 - 01 spread of coking coal was 148 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 01 spread of coke was 201 yuan/ton [39]. - **Spot Price**: On December 2, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1580 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1430 yuan/ton [42]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On December 2, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 2 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5200 yuan/ton [52]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On December 2, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 158 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5530 yuan/ton [53]. Soda Ash - **Futures Price**: On December 2, 2025, the 05 contract price was 1244 yuan/ton, the 09 contract price was 1307 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price was 1183 yuan/ton [68]. - **Spot Price**: On December 2, 2025, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, and the light - soda market price was 1250 yuan/ton [68]. Glass - **Futures Price**: On December 2, 2025, the 05 contract price was 1145 yuan/ton, the 09 contract price was 1195 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price was 1034 yuan/ton [93]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 28, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 162%, and in Hubei, it was 160% [94].
市场新增驱动不足 预计纯碱底部偏强震荡为主
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-12-02 08:08
Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for soda ash is experiencing a slight increase, with the main contract rising by 1.28% to 1183.00 CNY/ton, despite a generally weak demand environment and high inventory levels [1][2]. Supply Side - Soda ash enterprises are making minor adjustments to their operations, with little change in production levels and few upcoming maintenance plans. New production capacity is expected to come online, maintaining overall output at relatively high levels [2]. - Manufacturers are primarily focused on fulfilling previous orders, with new orders being limited. Although short-term inventory levels are decreasing, the absolute inventory remains high [2]. Demand Side - The demand for soda ash is weak, particularly in the float glass industry, which is facing a dual weakness in supply and demand. The recovery in demand is hindered by a lack of improvement in the real estate market, which is the main downstream sector for float glass [2]. - Additionally, the anticipated demand from the photovoltaic sector for dense soda ash has not materialized, further limiting overall demand growth [2]. Inventory Levels - As of December 1, 2025, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers in China is 1.5699 million tons, a decrease of 17,500 tons (1.10%) from the previous week. This includes 734,500 tons of light soda ash (down 6,100 tons) and 835,400 tons of dense soda ash (down 11,400 tons) [2]. Market Outlook - The futures market shows clear bottom characteristics, but there is a lack of new driving forces. The market is expected to experience strong oscillation around the bottom, with future trends requiring more catalysts to materialize. Key factors to monitor include soda ash production levels, product release schedules from Alashan, downstream purchasing rhythms, and trends in the macroeconomic and commodity markets [2].
2025年1-9月中国纯碱(碳酸钠)产量为2961.1万吨 累计增长4.3%
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-12-02 03:18
Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth of China's soda ash (sodium carbonate) production, indicating a significant increase in both monthly and cumulative production figures for 2025, suggesting a positive trend in the industry [1]. Industry Summary - As of September 2025, China's soda ash production reached 3.36 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [1]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative production of soda ash in China was 29.611 million tons, with a cumulative growth of 4.3% [1]. Company Summary - Listed companies in the soda ash sector include Yuanxing Energy (000683), Sanyou Chemical (600409), Shandong Haohua (000822), Shuanghuan Technology (000707), Chlor-Alkali Chemical (600618), Jinjing Technology (600586), Hubei Yihua (000422), Yuntu Holdings (002539), and Hebang Biotechnology (603077) [1].
大越期货纯碱早报-20251202
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-02 02:15
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-12-2 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 1、设备问题导致企业减量检修,纯碱供应恢复较慢。 利空: 1、23年以来,纯碱产能大幅扩张,今年仍有较大投产计划,行业产量处于历史同期高位。 2、重碱下游光伏玻璃减产,对纯碱需求走弱。 每日观点 纯碱: 1、基本面:碱厂产量高位,远兴二期年前预期投产,整体供给预期充裕;下游浮法玻璃、光伏日 熔量整体延续下滑趋势,纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位;偏空 2、基差:河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1145元/吨,SA2601收盘价为1176元/吨,基差为-31元,期货升 水现货;偏空 3、库存:全国纯碱厂内库存158.74万吨,较前一周减少3.47%,库存在5年均值上方运行;偏空 4、盘面:价格在20日线下方运行,20日线向下;偏空 5、 ...
中原证券晨会聚焦-20251202
Zhongyuan Securities· 2025-12-02 02:12
Core Insights - The report highlights a gradual recovery in various industries, with a focus on investment opportunities arising from supply and demand dynamics [6][14][16] - The AI sector is experiencing rapid growth, with significant advancements in technology and applications, particularly in China [16][17] - The chemical industry is expected to see a marginal recovery in profitability due to improved demand and reduced investment pressures [13][14] Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a slight upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,914.01, reflecting a 0.65% increase [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 15.95 and 48.16, respectively, indicating a favorable long-term investment environment [8][9] International Market Performance - Major international indices, such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500, experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones closing at 30,772.79, down 0.67% [4] Industry Strategies - The chemical industry is entering a phase of improved stability, with a focus on supply-side constraints and demand recovery, particularly in agricultural chemicals and fluorochemicals [13][14] - The AI industry is projected to benefit from increased domestic demand and government support, with a focus on integrated circuits and software [16][17] - The food and beverage sector is facing challenges with declining revenue growth, but opportunities exist in the snack and beverage markets, which are expected to grow significantly [20][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical, as well as opportunities in the AI and semiconductor industries [15][16] - In the food and beverage sector, companies like Baoli Food and Dongpeng Beverage are recommended due to their growth potential in the snack and soft drink markets [21] Key Data Updates - The semiconductor industry continues to show strong growth, with global sales reaching $69.47 billion, a 25.1% year-on-year increase [36] - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with a focus on capacity reduction and optimization of the competitive landscape [25][23]
宏观预期仍在,钢价区间震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-02 02:05
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Market sentiment is cautious, and both glass and soda ash are expected to oscillate. Glass needs long - term losses for capacity clearance, and soda ash prices are restricted by potential float glass cold - repairs [1][2]. - **Silicon Manganese and Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Both are expected to show an oscillatory trend. Silicon manganese prices will follow the sector's fluctuations, and silicon ferrosilicon prices will be weakly correlated with the sector in the short - term due to high inventory [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Market Analysis**: Futures oscillated downward with reduced positions. Spot prices were stable regionally, and downstream demand was mainly for immediate needs. Supply contraction was insufficient, and high inventory persisted. Attention should be paid to cold - repairs and macro policies [1]. - **Soda Ash Market Analysis**: Futures oscillated with varying performance among contracts. Light soda ash consumption was better than heavy soda ash, and downstream demand was for immediate needs. Supply - demand contradictions were slightly alleviated, but inventory remained high. Heavy soda ash demand may face challenges due to potential float glass cold - repairs [1]. - **Strategies**: Glass and soda ash are expected to oscillate, with no specific cross - period or cross - variety strategies provided [2]. Silicon Manganese and Silicon Ferrosilicon - **Silicon Manganese Market Analysis**: Based on steel consumption data, building material consumption was fair. Futures rebounded strongly with the black market. Spot prices were firm, but production and operating rates continued to decline due to losses. Inventory reached a new high, and port manganese ore inventory increased slightly, providing cost support. Prices will follow the sector's fluctuations, and attention should be paid to basis, manganese ore cost, and production changes [3]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon Market Analysis**: Futures rebounded with the black market. Spot prices were weakly stable with average trading volume. High production and inventory persisted, demand weakened marginally, and although inventory decreased slightly due to reduced operating rates, high inventory will continue to suppress prices. Attention should be paid to cost factors and regional policies [3][4]. - **Strategies**: Both silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate [5].
《能源化工》日报-20251202
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-02 01:44
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyolefins - The fundamentals of LLDPE and PP show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with both cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [2]. Methanol - The supply of inland methanol increases with the restart of devices, but the profits of coal - and gas - based production are weak. The traditional downstream demand has a slight increase, and the winter fuel demand provides support. In ports, the reduction of imports due to Iranian gas restrictions strengthens the de - stocking expectation and supports prices [6]. Natural Rubber - The supply is expected to increase seasonally, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The terminal demand improvement is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate within the range of 15000 - 15500 [9]. Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks support oil prices in the short term, but the continuous increase in OPEC+ production and the record - high US crude oil production put pressure on the supply - demand pattern. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with Brent crude oil likely to trade between 60 - 65 dollars per barrel [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The medium - term supply - demand expectation is good, but the short - term valuation drive is limited. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to tighten in December but be relatively loose in Q1. The absolute price is relatively firm in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. - Ethylene glycol: It is expected to fluctuate within a range in December. - Short - fiber: The short - term price support is strong, but the absolute price drive is limited, and the processing fee is likely to be compressed. - Bottle - chip: The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, and the processing fee is expected to be squeezed [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price is under upward pressure. - Styrene: The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, but the upward drive is insufficient [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. - Glass: The short - term spot market is strong, but the 01 contract may face pressure later [16]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: The demand is weak, and the price is expected to run weakly. - PVC: The supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, and the price is expected to continue the bottom - range fluctuation [17]. LPG No overall view was provided in the LPG report, but price, inventory, and开工率 data were presented [18]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 had different price changes on December 1st compared to November 28th. Spot prices of some products also changed, with the price of华东PP拉丝现货 increasing by 0.32% and华北LLDPE现货 increasing by 0.30% [2]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP inventories decreased, with PE企业库存 decreasing by 9.80% and PP企业库存 decreasing by 8.00% [2]. - **开工率**: PE装置开工率 increased by 2.17%, while PP装置开工率 decreased by 0.18% [2]. Methanol - **Prices**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices changed slightly on December 1st compared to November 28th. Spot prices of some regions also had minor changes [5]. - **Inventory**: Methanol企业库存 increased by 4.19%, while甲醇港口库存 decreased by 7.83% [5]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 of methanol changed, with the上游 - domestic企业开工率 decreasing by 0.67% and the下游 -外采MTO装置开工率 decreasing by 0.78% [6]. Natural Rubber - **Prices**: The price of云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 1.33%, and the price of泰标混合胶 increased by 0.34% [9]. - **Production and Consumption**: The production of some countries in September changed, with Thailand's production decreasing by 5.45%. The domestic tire production and export in October decreased [9]. - **Inventory**: The保税区库存 increased by 2.74% [9]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices all increased on December 1st compared to November 28th [11]. - **Spreads**: Some price spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 changed [11]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices and spreads of refined oil products also had different changes [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: Upstream prices such as Brent crude oil and CFR日本石脑油 changed. Downstream polyester product prices also had various changes, with POY150/48价格 decreasing by 0.1% [14]. - **Spreads**: PX - related spreads and PTA - related spreads changed, such as PX -原油 increasing by 1.9% [14]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of various links in the polyester industry chain changed, with the亚洲PX开工率 decreasing by 1.3% [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: Pure benzene and styrene prices changed, with纯苯华东现货 decreasing by 0.6% and苯乙烯华东现货 decreasing by 0.2% [15]. - **Spreads**: Related spreads such as EB - BZ现货价差 increased by 1.6% [15]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories and开工率 changed, with纯苯江苏港口库存 increasing by 36.6% and苯乙烯开工率 decreasing by 2.4% [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices**: Glass and soda ash prices in different regions and futures prices changed, with the华东报价 of glass increasing by 0.84% and the纯碱2605 increasing by 0.68% [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The开工率 and production of soda ash decreased, and the浮法日熔量 and光伏日熔量 also decreased [16]. - **Inventory**: Glass and soda ash inventories decreased, with the玻璃厂库 decreasing by 1.49% and the纯碱厂库 decreasing by 3.47% [16]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda changed, with山东32%液碱折自价 decreasing by 2.7% [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The开工率 of the chlor - alkali industry and downstream industries changed, with the烧碱行业开工率 decreasing by 0.7% [17]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of PVC and caustic soda changed, with the液碱华东厂库库存 increasing by 6.0% [17]. LPG - **Prices**: LPG futures and spot prices changed, with the主力 PG2601 decreasing by 1.59% and the华南现货(民用气) increasing by 1.81% [18]. - **Inventory**: LPG inventories decreased, with theLPG炼厂库容比 decreasing by 7.70% [18]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of upstream and downstream industries changed, with the上游 -主营炼厂开工率 decreasing by 1.26% [18].
纯碱、玻璃日报-20251202
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-02 01:33
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: "Soda Ash, Glass Daily Report" [1] - Date: December 2, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - Soda Ash: The current weak supply - demand imbalance in the soda ash market has marginally eased but not fundamentally changed. In the short term, it will likely maintain a bottom - grinding and oscillating trend. In the medium - to - long - term, if there is a phased price rebound, a strategy of selling on rebounds can be adopted [9]. - Glass: The glass market is currently weaker than expected, with prices in a low - level oscillation pattern. In the short term, it will likely continue this trend. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production line cold repairs and changes in real estate demand [11]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On December 1, the main soda ash futures contract SA601 oscillated weakly, closing at 1176 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.50%, with a daily reduction of 24,299 lots [8]. - Supply is decreasing, with this week's production falling below 700,000 tons and the capacity utilization rate down 2.60% week - on - week. Demand is weak, with total shipments down 3.65% week - on - week. Inventory decreased 1.75% week - on - week [9]. Glass - The glass market is weaker than expected, with prices in a low - level oscillation. Spot prices do not support the market, and the supply reduction from the concentrated production line shutdown in the Shahe area did not meet expectations [10][11]. - Supply is stable, and inventory pressure is high. Demand is weak, especially in the real estate market. However, due to low profits, about 5,000 tons of production lines are expected to undergo cold repairs by the end of the year [11]. Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides data on soda ash and glass futures trading on December 1, including opening price, high price, low price, closing price, change, change rate, open interest, and open interest change [7]. - It also includes figures related to soda ash and glass, such as price trends, weekly production, enterprise inventory, market price, and flat glass production [13][18][20]