Core Viewpoint - Shandong Haihua is forecasting a significant decline in net profit for the year 2025, with estimates indicating a loss between 1.26 billion to 1.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of approximately 3,314.87% to 3,929.19% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company to be between -1.26 billion yuan and -1.5 billion yuan for 2025 [1] - The projected net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is estimated to be between -1.35 billion yuan and -1.59 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Reasons for Performance Change - The primary reason for the performance decline is the impact of the main business, where industry capacity expansion and a decrease in downstream demand have led to an oversupply of the main product, soda ash, resulting in a significant drop in selling prices compared to the previous year [1] - The company plans to recognize an asset impairment provision of 500 million to 650 million yuan due to preliminary impairment tests on fixed assets that showed signs of impairment as of December 31, 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company Shandong Haihua expects a net loss of between 1.26 billion to 1.5 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025 due to industry capacity expansion and a decline in downstream demand, leading to an oversupply of its main product, soda ash, and a significant drop in selling prices compared to the previous year [1] Group 1 - The company anticipates a negative net profit for the year 2025 [1] - The expected loss ranges from 1.26 billion to 1.5 billion yuan [1] - The decline in demand is attributed to industry capacity expansion [1] Group 2 - The main product, soda ash, is experiencing an oversupply situation [1] - There has been a significant decrease in selling prices compared to the same period last year [1]

交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1428 号 研究员：李轩怡 电 话：13164701108 邮 箱： lixuanyi_qh@chinastock.com.cn 期货从业资格证号：F03108920 投资咨询资格证号：F0018403 能化板块研发报告 2026 年 1 月 30 日 玻碱节后库存承压，价格偏弱运行 第一部分 前言概要 【纯碱】 在去美元化背景下，1 月有色及贵金属加速上涨，断崖式领涨于商品市场。本轮 商品价格普涨更像是随着全球金属价格上涨而出现的输入性通胀，但若上游资源价格 涨价过快，下游涨价能否顺畅传导，还是会进一步缩减需求有待观察，但这部分担忧 的计价预计会延迟到临近春节或节后释放。市场对春季商品普涨行情有一定期待，在 当前估值下对节后累库计价也比较谨慎。但随着春节的临近，库存压力将会愈发突出， 若宏观情绪边际走弱，价格易跌难涨。 1 月纯碱新增产能陆续提负，湖北新都，博源二线新增产能提量，逐步对纯碱供 应形成压力。2 月份预计 2 条浮法玻璃产线放水冷修，光伏玻璃产能或变动不大，重 碱用量预计下滑，春节假期期间部分轻碱下游用户放假，下游需求减少。通胀计价下 商品普涨，但传导上 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - No relevant information provided Group 3: Summary by Directory Supply - **Soda Ash**: The current week's soda ash开工率 is 84.19%, a decrease of 2.23 percentage points from the previous value; the产量 is 78.31 tons, an increase of 1.14 tons; the重质产量 is 42.11 tons, an increase of 0.82 tons; the轻质产量 is 36.2 tons, an increase of 0.32 tons [1] - **Float Glass**: The current week's float glass开工率 is 71.863%, an increase of 0.243 percentage points from the previous value; the产线条数 is 213, an increase of 1 compared to the previous value; the产量 remains unchanged at 105.6965 tons [1] Inventory - **Soda Ash**: The厂内库存 is 154.42 tons, an increase of 2.3 tons; the重质库存 is 71.61 tons, an increase of 1.94 tons; the轻质库存 is 82.81 tons, an increase of 0.36 tons; the库存可用天数 is 12.8 days, an increase of 0.19 days [1] - **Float Glass**: The库存 is 5256.4 ten thousand weight boxes, a decrease of 65.18 ten thousand weight boxes; the库存可用天数 is 22.8 days, a decrease of 0.3 days [1] Profit - **Soda Ash**: The ammonia - alkali method毛利 is - 88.35 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.95 yuan/ton; the co - production method毛利 is - 26.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.5 yuan/ton [1] - **Float Glass**: The natural gas profit is - 155.12 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.57 yuan/ton; the petroleum coke profit is 1.07 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.85 yuan/ton; the coal - gas profit is - 68.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.39 yuan/ton [1] Basis & Spread - **Soda Ash**: The基差 is - 40, a decrease of 5; the 1 - 5价差 is - 84, an increase of 18; the纯碱 - glass01价差 is 73, a decrease of 1; the纯碱 - glass05价差 is 137, an increase of 9 [1] - **Float Glass**: The基差 is - 81, a decrease of 17; the 1 - 5价差 is - 148, an increase of 8 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is high, and coal prices are rebounding from a low level. The glass and soda ash markets are boosted by market sentiment, with glass and soda ash futures showing a volatile rebound. The double - silicon market is also driven by market sentiment, with the silicon - manganese and silicon - iron futures showing an upward trend [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: The glass 2605 main contract rebounded yesterday, with increased trading volume and open interest. Spot prices fluctuated with the futures prices, and some manufacturers raised their quotes [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash 2605 main contract rebounded in a volatile manner. Spot market quotes fluctuated with the futures, and transaction prices stabilized. Downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: The short - term supply shortage in the glass market continues. The continuous cold - repair of production lines and significant inventory reduction support the price. The pre - Spring Festival stocking demand from downstream also provides some support. Attention should be paid to the progress of production line cold - repair and the enterprise restocking rhythm [1] - Soda Ash: The weak reality of oversupply in the soda ash market has not improved significantly. Although the inventory accumulation is less than expected, it is still at a high level. The float glass has entered the off - season, and the market is mainly for Spring Festival rigid - demand stocking. Attention should be paid to the enterprise restocking rhythm during the long holiday. In addition, driven by the warming market sentiment, the speculative demand for soda ash has increased [1] - **Strategy** - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda Ash: Volatile [2] Double - Silicon (Silicon - Manganese and Silicon - Iron) - **Market Analysis** - Silicon - Manganese: The silicon - manganese main contract rose 1.61% yesterday under the influence of the black - series futures, with a daily reduction of 12,587 contracts in open interest. The silicon - manganese spot market was strong, and factories adjusted production normally. The price of 6517 silicon - manganese in the northern market was 5,570 - 5,670 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,700 - 5,750 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon - Iron: The silicon - iron futures were strong under the influence of the overall black - series. The price was driven up by the boost of macro - sentiment and the potential cost support. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon - iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,250 - 5,350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon - iron was 5,750 - 5,950 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Silicon - Manganese: The fundamentals of silicon - manganese have improved, but the inventory pressure is still large, and there are new production capacities. The supply - demand remains loose. There is an expectation of increased pig iron production in the future, and the pre - Spring Festival restocking demand from steel mills is expected to improve the demand for silicon - manganese. The South African tariff policy may increase the cost of manganese ore, and attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and production changes [3] - Silicon - Iron: The fundamental contradictions of silicon - iron are controllable. Enterprises actively reduce production loads. Considering the复产 of steel mills and winter - storage restocking, the demand for silicon - iron is expected to improve. The differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi has boosted market sentiment. Considering the expected decline in domestic electricity prices next year and the overall over - capacity of silicon - iron, the price increase is limited. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of silicon - iron and the electricity price policy in the production areas [3] - **Strategy** - Silicon - Manganese: Volatile [4] - Silicon - Iron: Volatile [4]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Haohua Group is actively integrating party building with production operations, showcasing achievements through a competition among party branch secretaries, emphasizing the role of grassroots leadership in driving high-quality development [1] Group 1: Party Building and Efficiency - The party branch at the soda ash plant has achieved a historical record by repairing 94 old instruments and reusing 84, resulting in a 34.8% increase in repair volume [2] - The implementation of six technical transformation projects in 2025 has led to significant cost reductions and efficiency gains, with one project generating an annual profit of 490,000 yuan and another 1.2 million yuan [2] - The bromine plant's party branch improved the comprehensive extraction rate of bromine to 88.13%, a year-on-year increase of 10.69%, resulting in an additional profit of over 14 million yuan [2] Group 2: Safety and Risk Management - The company has achieved a 100% weekly inspection rate for 2,106 instruments, setting historical bests for various operational metrics [4] - A risk prevention model has been established, pairing one experienced party member with two young pioneers to enhance safety and operational standards [4] Group 3: Digital Transformation and Innovation - The party branch has successfully completed eight out of ten technical challenges related to digital transformation within a year, including innovations in pneumatic intelligent actuators [5] - The introduction of a "zero manual" system has reduced operation frequency by 51.89% and improved stability by 65%, with a 59.5% increase in key control metrics [5] - The company has implemented 22 APC control loops, achieving a 98% automation rate and reducing manual intervention by 85% [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is relatively positive, and the prices of black - series products continue to fluctuate within the bottom range. The actual terminal demand for steel is still weak, and the macro - level is in a policy window period. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction progress of hot - rolled coils, the marginal strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [2]. - For iron ore, the overseas shipping volume is gradually entering the off - season, the supply pressure is marginally reduced, but the inventory structural problem is not solved. The short - term support for ore prices is relatively solid, and it is expected to fluctuate mainly. Attention should be paid to the steel mill restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the overall commodity bullish trend is expected to continue. The future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, the cost increase of manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses or "dual - carbon" policies [9][10]. - For coking coal and coke, the short - term prices are expected to continue to show a wide - range shock trend. Attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment and the current high - volatility risk [15]. - For industrial silicon, there is an expectation of improved supply - demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the production reduction of large enterprises and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [18]. - For polysilicon, the supply is expected to shrink in the first quarter, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see and operate cautiously [21]. - For glass, the market lacks substantial positive drivers, and it is expected to continue a narrow - range shock trend [24]. - For soda ash, the market supply - demand pattern is generally loose, and it is expected to continue a weak - running trend [26]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3157 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (1.088%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 17,283 tons, with no change from the previous day. The main contract's open interest was 1.7854 million lots, an increase of 40,974 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3308 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.853%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 187,668 tons, an increase of 8842 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.5471 million lots, an increase of 29,468 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoint - The rebar production was basically flat month - on - month. As the Spring Festival approaches, the apparent demand shows a seasonal decline, and the inventory begins to accumulate, but the amplitude is relatively healthy. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils remains at a relatively high level, the production is moderately high, and the inventory continues to be depleted. The steel market is expected to continue to fluctuate within the bottom range [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 798.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.98% (+15.50). The open interest changed by - 9221 lots to 555,400 lots. The weighted open interest was 910,100 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 800 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 51.57 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.07% [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - In terms of supply, the overseas shipping volume of iron ore increased slightly in the latest period. The shipping volume from Australia increased month - on - month, and that from Brazil remained basically stable. Among the mainstream mines, the shipping volume of three Australian mines increased, while that of Vale decreased slightly. The shipping volume from non - mainstream countries declined from the high level. The near - end arrival volume continued to decline. In terms of demand, the average daily hot - metal output was 227,980 tons, a slight month - on - month decline. There were still some blast furnaces in some areas for annual inspections, and the复产 of blast furnaces was mainly the regular复产 after the end of maintenance. The profitability rate of steel mills declined slightly month - on - month. In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to accumulate, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past five years, which put pressure on the absolute price. The inventory of imported ore in steel mills continued to rise, and the steel mills continued to replenish stocks before the Spring Festival. It is expected that the iron ore price will mainly fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the steel mill restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On January 29, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed up 1.61% at 5926 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5780 yuan/ton, converted to the futures price of 5970 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 44 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed up 1.85% at 5736 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 114 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - The accident at Baogang Plate Factory last week led to the shutdown and maintenance of some production capacities and concerns about safety inspections, which inhibited the resumption of hot - metal production and dragged down the demand for furnace materials. After the market sentiment eased, there was a certain rebound. In the future, the overall commodity market is expected to continue the bullish trend, but the black - series products currently lack capital interest. For manganese silicon, the supply - demand pattern is still not ideal, but most of these factors have been priced in. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand structure is basically balanced. The future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, the cost increase of manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses or "dual - carbon" policies [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On January 29, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed up 2.69% at 1165.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1584.8 yuan/ton, down 1.9 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a converted futures price of 1395 yuan/ton, a premium of 230 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a converted futures price of 1284 yuan/ton, a premium of 119 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Jinquan Industrial Park was 1234 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a converted futures price of 1209 yuan/ton, a premium of 44 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed up 2.32% at 1723.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a converted futures price of 1725.5 yuan/ton, a premium of 2.5 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1495 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a converted futures price of 1710.5 yuan/ton, a discount of 12.5 yuan/ton to the futures price [12]. Strategy Viewpoint - The accident at Baogang Plate Factory last week led to the shutdown and maintenance of some production capacities and concerns about safety inspections, which inhibited the resumption of hot - metal production and dragged down the demand for furnace materials. After the market sentiment eased, there was a certain rebound. In the future, the overall commodity market is expected to continue the bullish trend, but the black - series products currently lack capital interest. The supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is marginally loose. The short - term restocking is expected to be difficult to form a strong price driver, and the price is expected to continue to show a wide - range shock trend. Attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment and the current high - volatility risk [14][15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon was 8925 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.88% (+165). The weighted contract open interest changed by - 9426 lots to 365,402 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 275 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of - 75 yuan/ton after conversion to the futures price [17]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract (PS2605) of polysilicon was 49335 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.89% (-1470). The weighted contract open interest changed by +1938 lots to 86,469 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 49.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feed material was 52.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 3165 yuan/ton [19]. Strategy Viewpoint - Industrial silicon: The production in Sichuan has basically stopped, the number of operating furnaces in Inner Mongolia has continued to decrease, and the number in Xinjiang has remained stable, with the weekly output continuing to decline. The demand from polysilicon and organic silicon is weak. If the production reduction plan of a large factory in Xinjiang is implemented, the supply is expected to decrease significantly, and the short - term balance sheet may turn to inventory depletion. It is expected that the price will mainly fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the production reduction of large enterprises and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [18]. - Polysilicon: The silicon material market is in a stalemate. The downstream silicon wafer factories delay the purchase due to high prices, and the upstream maintains high prices but has few actual transactions. Some futures - cash traders sell at low prices, and the overall transaction price has declined. The terminal component price has increased, and the battery price has also increased. The supply of polysilicon is expected to contract in the first quarter, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see and operate cautiously [20][21]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: The main contract of glass closed at 1087 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, up 1.87% (+20). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1020 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1090 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises on January 30 was 52.564 million boxes, a decrease of 651,800 boxes (-1.22%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 20,937 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased their short positions by 4723 lots [23]. - Soda ash: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1224 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, up 2.17% (+26). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1184 yuan, up 26 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises on January 30 was 1.5442 million tons, an increase of 23,000 tons (1.22%), including 716,100 tons of heavy soda ash, an increase of 19,400 tons, and 828,100 tons of light soda ash, an increase of 3600 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 6474 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 28,808 lots [25]. Strategy Viewpoint - Glass: The market lacks substantial positive drivers. Affected by the lack of orders from downstream deep - processing enterprises, weak stocking willingness, and seasonal factors, the terminal demand is weak, and the inventory in most areas accumulates slightly or remains stable. It is expected that the market will continue a narrow - range shock trend, with the main contract reference range of 1035 - 1130 yuan/ton [24]. - Soda ash: The supply - demand pattern is generally loose. The supply is abundant, the downstream demand is weak, and the procurement is cautious. The market lacks substantial positive drivers, and the futures market is in a weak shock. It is expected that the market will continue a weak - running trend, with the main contract reference range of 1160 - 1230 yuan/ton [26].

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: January 30, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the overall supply - demand pattern remains supply - exceeding - demand. Although the chemical market sentiment has improved recently and the short - term trend may be oscillatingly strong, the upward space is limited in the long - term, and there is no expectation for going long. It's not advisable to blindly place long orders before the core contradiction of oversupply is fundamentally resolved [8]. - For glass, the industry is in a new stage of capacity clearance. Short - term supply contraction will support prices, but weak downstream real - estate data and inventory accumulation expectations suppress the upward movement of the market. The price is expected to be oscillatingly strong before substantial positive factors are realized. It is recommended to gradually reduce short positions and pay attention to supply - demand changes and raw material price support [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On January 29, the main soda ash contract SA605 rose significantly, closing at 1,224 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton or 2.59% from the previous day, with an intraday increase of 6,800 lots [7]. - This week, the soda ash market faces both increasing supply and shrinking demand. There is a slight inventory accumulation, and the trend is expected to continue. The downstream float glass industry is weak, and the real - estate market has not improved substantially, so the demand for soda ash is weak. With the cold - repair of float glass production lines, the consumption support for soda ash further weakens [8]. Glass - On January 29, 2025, the main glass futures contract FG2605 turned from decline to rise. The spot price of glass is stable but weak, and the industry is generally in a loss state. The supply of float glass is tightening, and the cold - repair of production lines is accelerating. The inventory pressure is high, and the pre - holiday restocking is basically over. The market is in a capacity clearance stage, and short - term supply contraction supports prices, but weak downstream real - estate data and inventory accumulation expectations suppress the market [9]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, soda ash weekly output, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass output, with data sources from Wind and iFind [12][17][20]

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant decline in net profit for the year 2025, projecting a decrease of approximately 85% compared to the previous year, primarily due to falling prices of its main product, soda ash [2][3]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company estimates a net profit attributable to shareholders of around 75.2 million yuan for 2025, a decrease of approximately 44.36 million yuan from the previous year [2][3]. - The projected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is about 4.05 million yuan, reflecting a reduction of approximately 99% year-on-year [2][3]. Group 2: Previous Year’s Performance - In the previous year, the company reported a total profit of 911.9 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 518.79 million yuan and a net profit of 347.95 million yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses [5]. Group 3: Reasons for Performance Decline - The decline in performance is attributed to significant decreases in the selling price of soda ash, which has compressed the gross profit margin, particularly affecting the performance of Zhongyan Kunshan Co., Ltd [7]. - The company is implementing measures such as optimizing process control, enhancing energy efficiency, and innovating business models to mitigate the impact of price fluctuations on its financial performance [7]. - Non-operating gains from the disposal of limestone mining rights contributed 48.35 million yuan, while the previous year included a gain of 130.19 million yuan from the use of sodium metal patent rights [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] Core Views - The glass market is mainly characterized by rigid - demand procurement, with the supply side having a rising expectation of cold - repair of production lines and the demand side showing a differentiated situation. The photovoltaic glass sector is relatively stable, while the float glass sector is in a downturn [1]. - The soda ash market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The high - production and high - inventory state will continue, and the demand is weak. The market sentiment has been repaired to some extent, but its sustainability needs further observation [1]. - The fundamentals of silicomanganese have improved, but the inventory pressure is still large, and there is an expectation of increased demand. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are controllable, and the demand is expected to improve, but the price increase is restricted [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Market Analysis**: The main glass contract showed a narrow - range oscillating trend, and the spot manufacturers' quotes remained basically the same as the previous day. The downstream market mainly made rigid - demand purchases [1]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The supply side has a rising expectation of cold - repair of production lines, and the inventory has been well reduced recently, but the overall inventory is still at a high level. The demand side is differentiated, with the photovoltaic glass sector being relatively stable and the float glass sector being in a downturn [1]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The main soda ash contract continued to oscillate. The spot market quotes fluctuated with the high - level of the futures market, and some manufacturers slightly raised their quotes. Downstream enterprises mostly adopted a wait - and - see attitude and had weak purchasing willingness [1]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The soda ash market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The high - production and high - inventory state will continue, which suppresses the price rebound. The demand is weak and needs to track the downstream replenishment rhythm [1]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating weakly [2] Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis**: The main silicomanganese contract oscillated within the day. The alloy cost had certain support, with the price in the northern market at 5570 - 5680 yuan/ton and in the southern market at 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The fundamentals have improved, but the inventory pressure is large, and there is new production capacity. The demand is expected to improve due to the expected increase in iron - making output and pre - Spring Festival steel mill replenishment. The South African tariff policy may increase the manganese ore cost [3]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: The ferrosilicon futures continued to oscillate, the market was slightly adjusted, and the market sentiment stabilized. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The fundamentals are controllable, and enterprises actively reduce the production load. The demand is expected to improve due to steel mill resumption and winter storage replenishment. The differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi has affected the market sentiment, but the price increase is restricted due to the expected decline in domestic electricity prices and overall over - capacity [3]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating [4]