| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 伊以冲突不确定性上升，油价高位震荡。当前核心驱动由供需转为地缘政 | | | | 治，伊以冲突走向将主导油价，短期市场较为担忧战火扩大，极端情况下， | | | | 伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡。策略：双买期权策略。SC【530-570】 | | LPG | | 成本端油价走强，基本面边际改善，液化气短线偏强。原油受伊以冲突带 | | | | 动走强，成本端利好；下游化工需求有所回升，PDH、MTBE 开工率上升； | | | 偏强 | 库存端利好，厂库和港口库存均下降。策略：短线偏强，波动加剧，双买 | | | | 期权。PG【4300-4400】 | | L | 空头反弹 | 成本支撑好转，期现齐涨，华北基差为-18（环比-17），关注后续库存去 化力度。本周装置重启计划偏多，预计产量继续增加；社会库存转为累库， | | | | 农膜需求淡季，下游补库动力不足，后市中游存在继续累库风险。策略： | | | | 短期地缘冲突尚不明朗，空单减持。基差维持负值，上游企业可择机卖保。 | | | | ...

| | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/6 | | 2025/6/12 | 2025/6/13 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 2025/6/6 | 2025/6/12 | 2025/6/13 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 沙河重碱 | 1250.0 | 1230.0 | 1200.0 | -50.0 | -30.0 | SA05合 约 | 1242.0 | 1212.0 | 1204.0 | -38.0 | -8.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1220.0 | 1210.0 | 1165.0 | -55.0 | -45.0 | SA01合约 | 1198.0 | 1165.0 | 1153.0 | -45.0 | -12.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1510.0 | 1510.0 | 1510.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1212.0 | 1175.0 | 1156.0 | -56.0 | -19. ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 玻璃纯碱周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 日期：2025年6月15日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 纯碱：供应、 库存 05 纯碱：价格、 利润 06 01 玻璃：供应 端情况介绍 02 玻璃：价格 与利润 03 玻璃：库存 及下游开工 光伏玻璃： 价格与利润、 04 CONTENTS 产能与库存 玻璃观点：中期震荡市 第一，短期现货偏弱，全国各个地区玻璃价格普遍下跌。就中期而言需要注意6月地产偿债高峰因素、湖北仓 单定价对盘面压制因素，暂不宜对玻璃过度高看，但低位下跌空间也有限，长期看需要注意09合约作为一个 旺季合约，盘面定价却亏损幅度较大，玻璃未来波动率或较大； 第二、趋势上多头交易的核心支撑主要在政策端未来可能因地产收储、政府财政支持，政策资金保障加强后 保交楼落地预期增强、现货价格较低，处于历史价格25%分位以下、厂家长期亏损、09合约旺季预期； 第三、空头交易房 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-6-13 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修逐步恢复，供给高位下滑逐步企稳；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1220元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1175元/吨，基差为45元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存168.63万吨，较前一周增加3.64%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 2、重碱下游浮法玻璃冷修高位，日熔量持续减少，对纯碱需求偏弱。 主要逻辑和风 ...

交产业期规则目报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月13日 色素吉明 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 品种 | 6月12日 | 6月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 云南国富全乱胶(SCRWF):下海 | 13850 | 13750 | 100 | 0.73% | | | 全乳基差 (切换至2509合约) | ટ્ટર | -140 | 405 | 289.29% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13600 | 13850 | -250 | -1.81% | | | 非标价差 | 15 | -40 | રેર | 137.50% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 46.55 | 46.65 | -0.10 | -0.21% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 56.75 | 56.50 | 0.25 | 0.44% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 12200 | 12200 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 天然橡胶:胶水:西双版纳州 | ...

| 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/6/13 | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/6/12 周度变化 日度变化 | 2025/6/5 | 2025/6/11 | | | | | 2025/6/5 | 2025/6/11 | | 2025/6/12 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1121.0 | 1113.0 | 1113.0 | -8.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 963.0 | 998.0 | 981.0 | 18.0 | -17.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1096.0 | 1100.0 | 1096.0 | 0.0 | -4.0 | FG01合约 | 1018.0 | 1056.0 | 1040.0 | 22.0 | -16.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | 1 ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 6 月 13 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 | | | 表1：纯碱、玻璃期货6月12日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变 | | | | | | | | （%） | （万手） | 化 | | SA509 | 1198 | 1199 | 1171 | 1175 | -28 | -2.32 | 160.23 | 105598 | | SA601 | 1185 | 1185 | 1161 | 1165 | -22 | -1. ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively engaging in various projects to enhance its operational efficiency and profitability, despite facing challenges in the market for its main products [1][2]. Group 1: Company Announcements - The company announced an earnings briefing on June 12, 2025, to discuss its financial performance and strategic initiatives [1]. - The company clarified that there are no major restructuring plans involving Yihua Group, and it is focused on a specific stock issuance to acquire a stake in Hubei Hongyi Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a main revenue of 613 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -9.95 million yuan, down 106.01% [2]. - The company's debt ratio stands at 41.07%, with investment income of 89.86 million yuan and financial expenses of -11.99 million yuan, resulting in a gross margin of 4.74% [2]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is investing 1.366 billion yuan in upgrading its soda ash production facilities to reduce costs, which is currently in trial production [1]. - A 199 million yuan investment is being made in a thermal system upgrade project, expected to save approximately 11 million yuan annually once fully operational [1]. - The company is developing a 50,000-ton battery-grade sodium carbonate production facility and is conducting small-scale tests for sodium-ion battery cathode materials [1]. - Plans include a new 1.5 million-ton vacuum salt project and a 400,000-ton annual value-added nitrogen fertilizer project, both in preliminary stages [1]. - The company is exploring the decomposition of its main product, ammonium chloride, to recycle ammonia for soda ash production and extract chlorine for other chemical products [1]. Group 4: Market Challenges - The company faced losses in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 primarily due to a significant decline in market prices for its main products, despite normal production and sales conditions [2].

今日纯碱期货主力合约延续跌势，盘中主力合约再度刷新历史低点，截至收盘，纯碱主力合约下跌2.33%，报1175元/吨。市场分析师指出，市场情绪转弱主 要源于持续累库压力，叠加供应端显著提升而终端需求疲软，现货价格呈现稳中下移态势。盘中空头资金集中入场，进一步压制盘面走低。 本周浮法玻璃生产周均利润继续恶化，玻璃现货价格跌势不止，纯碱价格亦是同步走低，不过石油焦价格周度小涨，以其为燃料的周均利润-128.47元/吨， 环比减少17.14元/吨；天然气价格走低，以天然气为燃料的周均利润-182.83元/吨，环比减少12.15元/吨；此外以煤制气为燃料的周均利润下降10.24元/吨至 80.72元/吨。 短期纯碱供需驱动依旧不足，盘面维持底部宽幅震荡趋势。关注高温天气纯碱装置检修落实情况、商品市场整体走势对纯碱期价的阶段性影响。 据正信期货研究分析，从新产能上看，连云港碱业120万吨、湖北双环30万吨于5-6月投产，三季度新产能预计逐步放量，远兴2期280万吨、云图控股70万吨 影响预计在4季度甚至明年，此外远期计划新增产能项目包括湖南雪天盐业、河南金山(2026-2027)。总体看，今年产能延续增加态势且远期仍有投 ...

Group 1: Steel and Coal Industry - Hebei Steel Group's silicon manganese production in June is 11,700 tons, slightly up from 11,600 tons in May [1] - Rebar production decreased to 2.0757 million tons, down by 108,900 tons or 4.98% from the previous week, with inventory levels also declining for the third consecutive week [1] - Average profit per ton of coke across 30 independent coking plants in China is -46 yuan, with regional variations in profitability [1] Group 2: Agricultural Products - China's cotton import forecast for the 2024/2025 season has been revised down to 1.2 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous month due to U.S. tariffs [1] - Brazil's soybean export forecast for June 8-14 is 3.5645 million tons, down from 4.4739 million tons the previous week, while soybean meal exports increased significantly [2] - The USDA reports that U.S. soybean production for the 2025/2026 season is expected to be 4.34 billion bushels, with ending stocks projected at 295 million bushels [3] Group 3: Chemical Industry - Domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory reached 1.6863 million tons, increasing by 59,300 tons or 3.64% week-on-week [3] - The theoretical profit for ammonia-soda method soda ash has decreased by 29.20 yuan per ton [3] Group 4: Lead Industry - A major recycled lead smelter in North China has temporarily halted production due to raw material shortages, with plans to increase procurement prices [3] - A primary lead smelting company in East China has postponed its scheduled maintenance from June to August due to satisfactory equipment performance [3]