Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as the weakening of the near - month spread, stubborn CPI in the US, and potential sanctions on Russia, with short - term volatility and a mid - term bearish outlook [1][2]. - The asphalt market has a neutral - to - high valuation, with short - term supply - demand weakness and expected high - level fluctuations in unilateral prices and a strengthening trend in crack spreads [3][5]. - The liquefied gas market has sufficient supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to run weakly [5][8]. - The natural gas market in the US is expected to see higher prices due to strong demand and increased LNG exports, while the European market is expected to be volatile due to stable supply and weak demand [8][9]. - The fuel oil market has different situations for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [10][12]. - The PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PR, and other polyester - related markets are expected to fluctuate and be sorted out, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [13][15][16]. - The styrene market is expected to show an oscillating trend due to factors such as supply and demand changes and inventory accumulation [23][25]. - The PVC market has a weak supply - demand situation, with a bearish view on prices in the medium and short term, while the caustic soda market has a reduced upward drive, and short - term long positions are recommended to take profits on rallies [26][28]. - The PP and PE markets have a large capacity release pressure in the third quarter, with a bearish view on prices in the medium and short term [29][31]. - The soda ash market is expected to show a relatively strong performance in price, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [32][35]. - The glass market is affected by the adjustment of real - estate expectations, and attention should be paid to possible logical conversions [35][37]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading and selling call options [37][40]. - The urea market is expected to be strong in the short term but weak in the short - term operation due to factors such as supply, demand, and export policies [40][42]. - The log market has a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [43][46]. - The corrugated paper market is in a weak pattern, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [46]. - The double - offset paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with paper mills having a strong willingness to support prices [48][50]. - The pulp market has a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the high point on Tuesday [51][53]. - The butadiene rubber market has a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the high point last Thursday [54][56]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber markets have a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the high points, and the RU2509 - NR2509 spread can be considered for intervention [57][59]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 contract settled at $66.52, down $0.46/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of - 0.69%; Brent2509 contract settled at $68.71, down $0.50/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of - 0.72%. SC main contract 2509 fell 2.6 to 509.3 yuan/barrel, and at night it fell 3.7 to 505.6 yuan/barrel. The Brent main - to - next - month spread was $0.94/barrel [1]. - **Related News**: US June CPI rebounded to 2.7% year - on - year, core CPI rose 2.9% year - on - year. There are potential sanctions on Russia, and the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 19.1 million barrels in the week ending July 11, 2025 [1][2]. - **Logical Analysis**: The near - month spread of crude oil weakened, the short - term supply - demand contradiction was slightly weakened. The US CPI in June was still stubborn, the expectation of interest rate cuts was weakened, and the uncertainty of the macro - economic outlook increased. Potential sanctions on Russia may increase market disturbances [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term volatility is weak, and pay attention to the support around $68.2 for Brent. Gasoline and diesel crack spreads are stable, and options are on hold [2][3]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3612 points at night (- 0.14%), BU2512 closed at 3433 points at night (- 0.17%). The spot price in Shandong on July 15 was 3550 - 4070 yuan/ton, and in the East China region it was 3670 - 3800 yuan/ton [3]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction prices in different regions were stable, with some price adjustments due to factors such as supply and demand and weather [3][4]. - **Logical Analysis**: Oil prices fell from a high level, the asphalt crack spread increased passively, the industrial chain profit was repaired, and the valuation was neutral - to - high. The supply and demand were weak in the short term, and both were expected to increase before the peak season at the end of the third quarter [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level fluctuations, the asphalt - crude oil spread is strong, and options are on hold [5]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4106 at night (- 1.3%), PG2509 closed at 4016 at night (- 1.06%). The spot prices in different regions varied [5]. - **Related News**: The market trends in different regions were different, with fluctuations and adjustments [5][6]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply decreased last week, the international ship arrivals increased, the demand in the combustion and chemical fields was weak, and the inventories at ports and factories increased [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to run weakly [8]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: TTF closed at 34.445 (- 2.85%), HH closed at 3.521 (+ 1.64%), JKM closed at 12.3 (- 2.88%) [8]. - **Logical Analysis**: In the US, the natural gas inventory increased last week, the production increased, the demand was strong, and the LNG export volume increased, so the price was expected to rise. In Europe, the supply was stable, the demand was weak, and the price fell [8][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: For HH, buy on dips; for TTF, it is expected to oscillate [9]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 22873 at night (+ 0.21%), LU09 closed at 3642 at night (- 0.14%). The Singapore paper - cargo market had different month - spreads [10]. - **Related News**: Malaysia will implement regulations on illegal ship - to - ship crude oil transfers, and the sales volume of marine fuel oil in Singapore in the first half of 2025 decreased slightly [11]. - **Logical Analysis**: The high arrival of domestic high - sulfur spot hit the domestic high - sulfur price. The high - sulfur feed demand was expected to increase, and the low - sulfur supply increased with no specific demand driver [12][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for unilateral trading, and pay attention to the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot for arbitrage [13]. PX - **Market Review**: The PX2509 main contract closed at 6688 (- 90/- 1.33%) yesterday and 6712 (+ 24/+ 0.36%) at night. The spot price of PX decreased [13]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [14]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of PX was still tight, the downstream demand was lack of support in the off - season, and it was expected to oscillate following the cost side [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [14]. PTA - **Market Review**: The TA509 main contract closed at 4696 (- 44/- 0.93%) yesterday and 4702 (+ 6/+ 0.13%) at night. The spot basis was stable [15]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [15]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of PTA was expected to increase, the downstream demand was weak, and the processing fee was compressed [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4322 (- 35/- 0.80%) yesterday and 4301 (- 21/- 0.49%) at night. The spot basis was stable [16]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [17]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of ethylene glycol was expected to increase, and there was an expectation of inventory accumulation in August - September, which would put pressure on the price [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [18]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: The PF2508 main contract closed at 6368 (- 68/- 1.06%) during the day and 6358 (- 10/- 0.16%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable [18]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [18]. - **Logical Analysis**: The short - fiber price followed the decline of polyester raw materials, the processing difference continued to expand, and the production and sales were average [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided, wait and see attitude implied [19]. PR (Bottle Chips) - **Market Review**: The PR2509 main contract closed at 5870 (- 50/- 0.84%) yesterday and 5874 (+ 4/+ 0.07%) at night. The spot market trading atmosphere was average [19]. - **Related News**: The export quotation of polyester bottle - chip factories was slightly reduced [19]. - **Logical Analysis**: The raw material futures fell, the bottle - chip processing fee strengthened, and the production was reduced. It was expected to oscillate and sort out following the raw material end [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [21]. Styrene - **Market Review**: The BZ2503 main contract closed at 6144 (- 45/- 0.73%) during the day and 6164 (+ 20/+ 0.33%) at night. The EB2508 main contract closed at 7340 (- 138/- 1.85%) during the day and 7332 (- 8/- 0.11%) at night. The spot price of pure benzene and styrene changed [23]. - **Related News**: The styrene inventory in the East China main port increased, and some styrene devices were shut down for maintenance [23][24]. - **Logical Analysis**: The pure benzene price was expected to oscillate and sort out, and the styrene price was expected to show an oscillating trend due to supply and demand changes and inventory accumulation [24][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [25][26]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The PVC spot market was slightly weak, and the caustic soda spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [26][27]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong decreased [27]. - **Logical Analysis**: The PVC supply and demand were weak, the inventory increased, and there was a risk of new device production. The caustic soda price had a peak - season expectation, but the upward drive was reduced [27][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: For caustic soda, take profits on rallies for short - term long positions; for PVC, be bearish on the price in the medium and short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. PP and PE - **Market Review**: The LLDPE market price was slightly weak, and the PP spot price in different regions decreased [29]. - **Related News**: The PP and PE maintenance ratios increased [29]. - **Logical Analysis**: There was a large capacity release pressure in the third quarter, the terminal demand was weak, and the price was bearish in the medium and short term [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bearish on the price in the medium and short term, wait and see for arbitrage and options [32]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1214 yuan/ton (- 27/- 2.2%), and at night it closed at 1211 yuan (- 15/- 1.22%). The spot price in different regions changed [32]. - **Related News**: The domestic soda ash factory inventory increased, and some devices had maintenance or production plans [33]. - **Logical Analysis**: The soda ash supply decreased, the demand was weak, the inventory increased, and the profit decreased. The market expected the real - estate sector to adjust [33][34]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be relatively strong, wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 1071 yuan/ton (- 31/- 2.81%), and at night it closed at 1069 yuan/ton (- 13/- 1.2%). The spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [35]. - **Related News**: The glass market price was stable with some increases, and the deep - processing order days decreased [35][37]. - **Logical Analysis**: The glass price was affected by the adjustment of real - estate expectations, the supply decreased last week, and attention should be paid to production and sales in the short term and cost and cold - repair in the medium term [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to possible logical conversions, wait and see for arbitrage and options [37]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2374 at night (- 18/- 0.75%). The spot price in different regions varied [37][38]. - **Related News**: The weekly signing volume of methanol production enterprises in the Northwest increased [39]. - **Logical Analysis**: The international methanol device start - up rate increased, the import recovered, the domestic supply was loose, and the price was expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [39][40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures fell to 1731 (- 33/- 1.87%). The spot price decreased slightly [40][41]. - **Related News**: The urea daily production increased, and the new Indian tender price was announced [41]. - **Logical Analysis**: The urea supply was large, the demand was weak, the inventory was high, and the price was expected to be strong in the short term but weak in the short - term operation [41][42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly in the short term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options on rallies [42][43]. Log - **Market Review**: The log spot market was stable with some price decreases. The 9 - month contract price rose slightly [43][44]. - **Related News**: The import volume of logs and sawn timber in June decreased, and the real - estate development data was not good [43]. - **Logical Analysis**: The downstream demand was weak, and the price support and trading volume needed to be considered. The scale difference supported the disk price [44][46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the near - month contract, pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread, and wait and see for options [46]. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: The corrugated and box - board paper market was stable with some individual adjustments [46]. - **Related News**: The price of waste yellow - board paper increased, and the market trading atmosphere was average [46]. - **Logical Analysis**: The corrugated paper market was in a weak pattern, with sufficient supply and weak demand [46

能源化工日报 2025-07-16 原油 能源化工组 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收跌 0.08 美元，跌幅 0.12%，报 66.75 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收跌 0.28 美元，跌幅 0.40%，报 68.86 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 9.30 元，跌幅 1.76%， 报 518.2 元。 数据方面：富查伊拉港口油品周度数据出炉， 汽油库存累库 0.18 百万桶至 8.29 百万桶，环 比累库 2.23%；柴油库存累库 0.30 百万桶至 2.41 百万桶，环比累库 14.07%；燃料油库存累库 0.72 百万桶至 10.50 百万桶，环比累库 7.35%；总成品油累库 1.20 百万桶至 21.19 百万桶， 环比累库 5.99%。 我们认为当前地缘风险仍有不确定性，虽然 OPEC 略超预期增产，但我们认为当前基本面仍处 于紧平衡，整体原油处于强现实与弱预期的多空博弈当中，建议投资者把握风控，观望处理。 甲醇 2025/07/16 甲醇 7 月 15 日 09 合跌 10 元/吨，报 2386 元/吨，现货涨 5 元/吨，基差-1。上游检修增多，开工高 位回落，企业利润依旧较好，海外装置开 ...

Group 1: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating No rating information provided. Core Viewpoints - Soda ash is in an obvious oversupply situation with continuous inventory accumulation. After the end of maintenance, inventory accumulation may accelerate. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [1]. - Glass spot market sentiment is still strong, but the glass industry is in the summer rainy season off - season, and the rigid demand side has certain pressure. The industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply dilemma, and the market is expected to be volatile in the near future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass prices in the central China region increased by 2.80%, and glass futures contracts 2505 and 2509 decreased by 1.35% and 2.81% respectively. Soda ash prices were generally stable, and futures contracts 2505 and 2509 decreased by 0.53% and 2.06% respectively [1]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production rate remained unchanged at 81.32%, and its weekly output was stable at 709,000 tons. Float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.38% to 158,400 tons, and photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventory decreased by 2.87% to 6.7102 million heavy boxes. Soda ash factory inventory increased by 2.98% to 1.8634 million tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 4.39% to 238,000 tons [1]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area increased by 2.99% year - on - year, construction area decreased by 7.56% year - on - year, completion area increased by 15.67% year - on - year, and sales area increased by 12.13% year - on - year [1]. Group 2: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating No rating information provided. Core Viewpoints - The log market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The 09 contract is gradually returning to fundamental control and is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and subsequent policy expectations [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Prices and Spreads**: Log futures contracts 2509, 2511, and 2601 increased by 0.25%, 0.13%, and 0.25% respectively, while 2507 decreased by 0.13%. Spot prices of some logs in ports were stable, and the outer - disk quotation increased by 4 US dollars per JAS cubic meter [2]. - **Supply**: Monthly port shipping volume increased by 2.12% to 1.76 million cubic meters, and the number of ships in New Zealand decreased by 8.62% [2]. - **Inventory**: As of July 11, the national total inventory of coniferous logs was 3.22 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.31% from the previous period [2]. - **Demand**: As of July 11, the daily average log delivery volume was 58,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 0.81 million cubic meters from the previous period [2]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating No rating information provided. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon spot and futures prices are rising. In the short term, prices will continue to fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to the risk of price decline due to increasing warehouse receipts [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Prices and Spreads**: Industrial silicon spot prices increased by 150 - 200 yuan per ton, and the futures main contract increased by 90 yuan per ton to 8,785 yuan per ton. Some inter - month spreads changed significantly [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the national industrial silicon output decreased by 12.10% to 300,800 tons, and the national start - up rate decreased by 11.37% to 51.23%. In May, the output of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon, and recycled aluminum alloy increased [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang factory inventory decreased by 17.46% to 123,900 tons, and social inventory decreased by 0.18% to 551,000 tons. Warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.34% to 251,300 tons [3]. Group 4: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating No rating information provided. Core Viewpoints - Polysilicon spot prices are stable, and the futures market has room for basis repair. There is a divergence in the market. Although prices are rising under policy expectations, attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Prices and Spreads**: The average price of N - type granular silicon decreased by 1.15%. The futures main contract PS2506 increased by 1.69% to 42,470 yuan per ton. Some inter - month spreads changed significantly [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly silicon wafer output decreased by 3.36% to 11.50 GW, and polysilicon output decreased by 5.00% to 22,800 tons. In May, polysilicon output increased by 5.10% to 101,000 tons [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.47% to 276,000 tons, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 5.67% to 18.13 GW [4]. Group 5: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating No rating information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, rubber prices rebound due to macro - sentiment, but the fundamental weakness remains unchanged. A short - selling strategy is recommended, and short positions can be arranged in the range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan per ton [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of domestic natural rubber increased slightly, with the price of Sanjiaoguo standard rubber increasing by 0.70%. Some inter - month spreads changed [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the output of Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China increased. The start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased, and the domestic tire output decreased slightly. The export volume of tires increased by 7.72% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory increased by 0.05% to 632,377 units, and the futures inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE increased by 24.41% [5].

Core Insights - The company has significantly reduced energy consumption in its butadiene plant by over 20% year-on-year, enhancing market competitiveness [1] - The company implemented a "three-step" approach to improve polymerization conversion rates, addressing issues related to unreacted butadiene and energy consumption [2][3] - The company successfully identified and resolved pipeline design issues that were hindering steam flow, resulting in a steam savings of 2.4 tons per hour at 80% load, equating to an annual savings of over 2.7 million tons [4][5] - The company improved the absorption process for tail gas, reducing the butadiene content from 9.5% to 0.3%, which allows for the recovery of 170 tons of butadiene annually, generating a profit of 1.6 million yuan [6][8] Energy Consumption Reduction - The company has focused on optimizing the operation of its butadiene unit, leading to a significant decrease in energy consumption [1] - Measures included process optimization, equipment modification, and technological innovation [1] Polymerization Conversion Rate Improvement - The company identified the root causes of low polymerization conversion rates and implemented a three-step strategy to enhance performance [2] - The first step involved optimizing feed temperature and stabilizing production loads [2] - The second step focused on controlling impurities in raw materials [2] - The third step included standardizing operational guidelines for catalyst adjustments [2] Steam Consumption Savings - The company discovered that excessive bends in pipelines were causing inefficiencies in steam flow [4] - After redesigning the pipeline layout, the company achieved significant steam savings [5] Tail Gas Recovery Enhancement - The company transitioned to using a non-butadiene-containing oil for absorption, which drastically improved recovery rates [7][8] - The implementation of a new absorption system allowed for the effective reduction of butadiene in tail gas [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market shows a slight correction. The short - term trend of butadiene rubber is mainly range - bound, with the upside space narrowing. The macro - sentiment provides support, but the industrial chain fundamentals face significant pressure [1][3]. - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,000 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to fluctuate. The upper valuation limit of the market is around 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation limit is around 11,000 yuan/ton [1][3]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the butadiene rubber main contract (08 contract), the daily closing price decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 11,535 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 26,899 lots to 101,885 lots, the open interest decreased by 1,690 lots to 22,739 lots, and the trading volume increased by 155,996 ten - thousand yuan to 590,450 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong butadiene - futures main contract) increased by 90 to 115, the monthly spread (BR08 - BR09) increased by 35 to 55. The prices of North China, East China, and South China butadiene (private) were 11,400 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), 11,450 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 11,550 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [1]. - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,650 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 12,000 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) remained unchanged at 10,900 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 100 yuan/ton and 35 yuan/ton to 9,400 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate increased by 0.17% to 65.2894%, the theoretical full cost remained unchanged at 12,079 yuan/ton, and the profit remained unchanged at - 379 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,000 - 11,800 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation is expected to fluctuate due to the short - term improvement in butadiene trading. The upper valuation limit of the market is around 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation limit is around 11,000 yuan/ton [1][3]. - In the short term, butadiene rubber will mainly operate in a range - bound manner, with the upside space narrowing. The recent rebound in butadiene rubber futures prices is mainly driven by the improvement in macro - sentiment and the continuous rebound of crude oil, but the spot trading is light, and the fundamentals of the industrial chain face significant pressure [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-07-16 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：目前胶市供应端处在割胶旺季，增量预期较强，月环比产出压力较大。与 ...

- 160000 BR主力合约盘面概览 BR价格结构 17000 140000 12000 120000 15000 11800 1000000 13000 11600 80000 11400 60000 11000 40000 11200 9000 20000 11000 7000 10800 07合约 08合约 09合约 现货 -- 7/15 -- 7/14 -- 7/11 -- 7/8 -- 6/13 丁苯-BR基差 顺丁-BR基差 BR07-08 2500 1000 800 800 2000 600 600 1 200 400 400 1000 200 200 500 0 -20Q -20Q -500 -400 -400 -1000 -600 -600 -800 - -1500 -800 2023 -- 2024 -- - 2024 - · 2025 2023 - · 2025 2023 2024 2025 顺丁山东市场价(贴近下游) 顺丁浙江传化市场价(贴近现货) BR08-09 18000 18000 600 400 16000 16000 200 14000 14000 ( 12000 1200 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Cost factors support the current price of cis - butadiene rubber, but downstream procurement remains cautious, and shipping resistance may increase. Short - term inventory levels are expected to increase slightly. Last week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises varied. The production schedules of semi - steel tire enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually recovered, while the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires was slightly dragged down by individual enterprise maintenance. This week, the production schedules of maintenance enterprises will return to normal, and there is room for the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises to recover. The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11300 - 11700 in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan; the position of the main contract was 22739, a decrease of 1690. The 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber was 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses was 2100 tons, an increase of 200 tons [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11650 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11600 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan. The basis of synthetic rubber was 115 yuan, an increase of 90 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil was 69.21 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.15 dollars; the price of WTI crude oil was 66.98 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.47 dollars. The Northeast Asian ethylene price was 820 dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 597 dollars/ton, an increase of 12.75 dollars; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1070 dollars/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9365 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan. The weekly capacity of butadiene was 14.78 million tons, unchanged; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.89%, a decrease of 2.02 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 23600 tons, an increase of 1270 tons; the daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 46.14%, an increase of 1.17 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 122500 tons, a decrease of 16900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 65.54%, a decrease of 1.44 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 526 yuan/ton, a decrease of 362 yuan. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32800 tons, a decrease of 400 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 26500 tons, an increase of 150 tons; the weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6270 tons, a decrease of 530 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 72.92%, an increase of 2.51 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 64.56%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, an increase of 800000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, an increase of 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.67 days, an increase of 0.22 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.76 days, a decrease of 0.72 days [2] Industry News - As of July 10, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32800 tons, a decrease of 400 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%. As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 65.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 61.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. The production schedules of semi - steel tire enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually recovered, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises. The maintenance of individual all - steel tire sample enterprises dragged down the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires. In June 2025, the heavy - truck market in China sold about 92000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June this year, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market in China was about 533300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU neutral, NR neutral, BR neutral [4][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent warming macro - atmosphere has made futures prices stronger, and the basis of natural rubber has weakened slightly. The improvement of domestic latex import profit and the resumption of raw material output after the end of rain are expected to increase the output of domestic full - latex, but the downstream product demand is weak, so the fundamentals of full - latex remain weak. In July, China is in the seasonal off - season of imports, and the profit of Thai processing plants to Chinese ports is still in a loss pattern, so the domestic import pressure is expected to ease. After the overhaul of downstream semi - steel tires is completed, the operating rate has rebounded, and the supply - demand pattern corresponding to NR has improved slightly. However, due to the increase in global natural rubber supply and lackluster demand, the rebound space of rubber futures prices is limited [4][5] - The price of upstream raw material butadiene is expected to remain firm in the short term because of the slight decline in domestic butadiene supply and the continuous decline in domestic port inventory, which eases the supply pressure of butadiene. Meanwhile, the restart of downstream overhaul devices benefits the demand for butadiene. In the loss pattern of cis - butadiene rubber, the strength of the raw material end is expected to drive the continuous rebound of cis - butadiene rubber. The supply of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to increase next week due to the reduction of overhaul devices, and the tire demand has increased month - on - month, showing a pattern of double - increase in supply and demand. It is expected that cis - butadiene rubber will follow the upstream butadiene raw material to run strongly this week [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 14,360 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The closing price of the NR main contract was 12,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,745 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,685 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Market Information - In June 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 599,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.2%. In the first half of the year, the total imports were 4.075 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.1% [2] - The start - up of semi - steel tire enterprises that had undergone maintenance has mostly returned to a high level. Due to the decrease in supply, under normal shipments of enterprises, there was a small shortage of some domestic sales specifications in some enterprises, which had little impact on the overall situation. The restorative increase in the capacity utilization rate of enterprises had a certain pulling effect on the overall capacity utilization rate [2] - In June, the national passenger car market retailed 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of the year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 14, 2025, the RU basis was - 60 yuan/ton (unchanged), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 210 yuan/ton (unchanged), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 5,870 yuan/ton (an increase of 45.02), the NR basis was 150 yuan/ton (an increase of 17), the price of full - latex was 14,300 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of mixed rubber was 14,150 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of 3L spot was 14,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), the STR20 was quoted at 1,745 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 5), the spread between full - latex and 3L was - 250 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,150 yuan/ton (unchanged) [3] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 65.29 baht/kg (a decrease of 0.08), the price of Thai latex was 54.30 baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 48.05 baht/kg (an increase of 0.25), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 6.25 baht/kg (a decrease of 0.25) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.11% (a decrease of 0.42%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 65.79% (an increase of 1.66%) [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,293,342 tons (a decrease of 248), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 636,383 tons (an increase of 4,006), the RU futures inventory was 188,690 tons (a decrease of 160), and the NR futures inventory was 36,994 tons (an increase of 7,258) [3] Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 14, 2025, the BR basis was - 175 yuan/ton (an increase of 40), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,300 yuan/ton (an increase of 100), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,550 yuan/ton (an increase of 50), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,450 yuan/ton (a decrease of 50), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 959 yuan/ton (an increase of 1) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 65.54% (a decrease of 1.44%) [3] - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 6,270 tons (a decrease of 530), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,500 tons (an increase of 150) [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is affected by Trump's tariff policies, but the market's sensitivity to it has decreased. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase, and A - shares have high investment value in the medium and long term [3][9]. - Glass and soda ash are in the cycle of inventory digestion. The supply adjustment is deepening, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand digestion process [2][15]. - The prices of gold and silver may continue to be strong, but there are risks of Trump's threats being realized. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range, and zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations [17][19][20]. - The prices of crude oil, methanol, and other energy - chemical products are affected by factors such as tariffs, supply - demand, and policies, with different trends [11][12]. - The prices of iron ore, steel, and other black commodities are expected to be strong in the short term, and the prices of coal and coke are affected by policies and demand [22][23][24]. - The prices of bean and rapeseed meal and oils are expected to be in a volatile pattern, and the price of shipping on the European container line is affected by market expectations [25][26][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key News - **International News**: The US regulatory authorities issued a blue - book on cryptocurrency custody. Trump will discuss tariffs with other countries and has announced new tariff policies [1][5]. - **Domestic News**: In the first half of 2025, China's foreign trade volume increased steadily, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports decreasing by 2.7%. The financial data in June were better than expected [6][7]. 3.2 Performance of External Markets - The S&P 500, T STOXX50, and other indices had different degrees of increase or decrease on July 14 compared with July 11. For example, the S&P 500 rose by 0.14%, and ICE Brent crude oil fell by 2.11% [8]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices rose, and the stock index fluctuated slightly. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to increase, and A - shares have high investment value [3][9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond prices fluctuated greatly. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, and the market risk preference has increased [10]. - **Energy - Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell at night. Trump's tariff policies and OPEC's production - increase plan have increased the uncertainty of oil prices [11]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose at night. The inventory of coastal methanol increased, and the short - term trend was slightly bullish [12]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins were in a consolidation phase. The cost support weakened, and attention should be paid to the supply contraction during the summer equipment maintenance [14]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded. The supply adjustment was deepening, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand digestion process [2][15]. - **Rubber**: The price of natural rubber was affected by climate and supply - demand. The short - term upward space was limited, and there might be a callback [16]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: The prices of gold and silver rose and then fell. The short - term trend was affected by Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price fell at night. The copper price might fluctuate within a range under the influence of multiple factors [18][19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price fell at night. The short - term zinc price might have wide - range fluctuations [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate decreased weekly, and the demand increased slightly. The overall market was in a volatile pattern [4][21]. - **Black Commodities** - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was expected to be strong in the short term. The demand was supported, and the supply might increase in the second half of the year [22]. - **Steel**: The steel price was expected to be strong in the short term. The supply - demand contradiction was not significant, and the cost was rising [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by policies and demand. The supply pressure still existed [24]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Bean and Rapeseed Meal**: The prices of bean and rapeseed meal were in a strong - side volatile pattern. The US soybean production and demand data were adjusted, and the final inventory increased [25]. - **Oils**: The prices of oils were in a strong - side volatile pattern. The demand for palm oil was strong, and the overall market was in a volatile pattern [26]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The price of shipping on the European container line was in a volatile pattern. The market was still gambling on the peak - season price space, and attention should be paid to the release of August shipping prices [27].