Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade in a range [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and a strategy of shorting May and going long September for glass [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term range trading for copper, suggesting more observation for aluminum, moderately holding long positions on dips for nickel, range trading for tin, and both gold and silver expected to be in a strong - side oscillation, with lithium carbonate in a range oscillation [1][12][15] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, low - level oscillation for caustic soda, shorting on rallies for soda ash, going long on dips but not chasing highs for styrene and rubber, range trading for urea and methanol, and a strong - side oscillation for polyolefins [1][19][21] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillating with a strong bias for cotton and cotton yarn, apples, and dates oscillating [1][29][30][32] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Caution against shorting the May contract of live pigs, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds; if the culling of laying hens does not accelerate, shorting on rebounds for near - month egg contracts; range trading for corn due to high short - term basis; shorting on rallies for soybean meal; and a strategy of going long on dips for soybean and palm oils as oils follow international crude oil in a strong - side oscillation [1][33][34][37] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts such as the Iran situation and trade policy uncertainties are impacting the financial and commodity markets, affecting the supply and demand and price trends of various commodities [6][13] - The supply and demand fundamentals of different industries are in a state of change, with some industries facing supply - side challenges, while others are affected by seasonal and policy factors [8][19][25] - The prices of most commodities are expected to show different trends, including oscillations, strong - side oscillations, and range trading, and investors should adopt corresponding trading strategies according to different market conditions [1] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Geopolitical conflicts may put pressure on stock indices in the short term, but they are bullish in the medium to long term, and investors are advised to buy on dips [6] - **Government Bonds**: With the release of policy signals and the approaching of the Two Sessions, government bonds are expected to oscillate with a strong bias [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable. Mines are resuming production, but trading is weak, and short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price is oscillating. It has a low static valuation and weak driving forces. It is expected to oscillate in the context of low - valuation and weak - driving, and range trading is recommended [8] - **Glass**: The glass market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term fundamentals are deteriorating, and a strategy of shorting May and going long September is recommended [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Policy uncertainties and supply - demand contradictions coexist. The short - term price is expected to oscillate in the range of 98,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton, and range trading is recommended [12][13][14] - **Aluminum**: The supply expectation is improving, but the market sentiment for being bullish on non - ferrous metals remains. It is recommended to strengthen observation [15] - **Nickel**: Affected by the reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia, the ore end has strong support, and it is recommended to moderately hold long positions on dips [16][17] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is in a state of rigid procurement. It is expected to oscillate with a strong bias, and range trading is recommended [17] - **Gold and Silver**: Due to geopolitical conflicts and the weakening of the US economic data, the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are moving up, and they are expected to oscillate with a strong bias. It is recommended to build long positions on dips after sufficient price corrections [18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply disturbances reappear, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate with a strong bias, and range trading is recommended [19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the inventory is high. However, it has a low valuation, and range trading is recommended, focusing on policies and cost disturbances [19][21] - **Caustic Soda**: The demand support is weak, there is inventory pressure in the short term, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level, focusing on supply - side maintenance and downstream replenishment [21] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in excess, the inventory pressure is increasing, and it is recommended to short on rallies [28][29] - **Styrene**: Supported by cost and with low inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, it is expected to oscillate with a strong bias, and it is recommended to go long on dips but not chase highs [22][23] - **Rubber**: The supply of raw materials is shrinking, and there is a short - term upward expectation. It is recommended to go long on dips but not chase highs [23] - **Urea**: After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand are both increasing. The price is expected to be strong in March and may be under pressure later, and range trading is recommended [24][25] - **Methanol**: The war in Iran may cause a supply gap, and the price may be pushed up in the short term. The supply and demand are both at a relatively high level, and range trading is recommended [27] - **Polyolefins**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts and cost support, they are expected to oscillate with a strong bias, focusing on downstream demand and inventory [28] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The new - year global cotton supply and demand situation is changing, and the price is expected to oscillate with a strong bias after the festival [29] - **Apples**: The apple trading is stable, and the price is expected to oscillate with a strong bias [30][31] - **Dates**: The acquisition price of Xinjiang gray dates in the 2025 production season is in a certain range, and the price is expected to oscillate [32] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: In the short term, the pig price is oscillating at a low level, and the May contract is recommended to be shorted on rebounds. In the long term, the price may strengthen, but the increase is limited [33] - **Eggs**: The egg price has a bottom support, but the supply is sufficient, and if the culling does not accelerate, it is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts [34] - **Corn**: The short - term price is in a range oscillation, and the medium - to long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and range trading is recommended [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean meal price is under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies [37] - **Oils**: Oils are expected to oscillate with a strong bias following international crude oil, and it is recommended to go long on dips for soybean and palm oils [37][42]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 原油溢价提升 供需预期重构 宝城期货 陈栋 历史经验显示，中东地缘冲突对油价的影响具有明显的阶段性特征。2025 年 6 月美伊有限冲突期间， 布伦特原油曾冲高至 81 美元/桶，但因冲突未波及原油运输通道，且双方迅速展现克制，油价随后快速回 落，抹去全部涨幅。此次冲突若仅为短期军事行动，未升级为全面对抗，油价在冲高后或将逐步回归供需 基本面；若局势持续恶化，霍尔木兹海峡航运受阻，油价则有望大幅上涨，甚至触发全球通胀上行压力。 总体而言，美以空袭伊朗，伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡以及也门胡塞武装封锁曼德海峡等连锁风险事件为 原油市场注入强地缘扰动，短期推升油价并重构供需预期，而后续油价走势的核心变量在于冲突升级程度 及霍尔木兹海峡和曼德海峡关闭的持续时间及航运安全。需密切关注美伊双方后续行动、OPEC+的产能调 控举措，以及主要消费国战略石油储备的释放计划，这些因素将共同决定原油供需结构的修复节奏与油价 运行区间。 上周末，美国与以色列对伊朗发起空袭行动，随机伊朗展开军事反击并宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡，中东 地缘局势骤然升级，作为全球原油供应的核心腹 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. Although the prices of NYMEX platinum and palladium have rebounded from the lows in late January, they have not fully recovered the previous declines. The nomination of Kevin Warsh by Trump has affected the prices, but long - term factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit, the continuation of the global central bank's gold - buying wave, and supply - demand imbalances in the industry still support the prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Volume Information**: For platinum futures (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610), the current prices are 623.75, 616.80, and 610.65 respectively, with price increases of 31.60, 29.85, and 30.25 and increases of 5.34%, 5.09%, and 5.21% respectively. The trading volumes are 16904, 384, and 138 respectively. For palladium futures (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610), the current prices are 464.85, 458.50, and 458.00 respectively, with price increases of 12.55, 10.20, and 10.70 and increases of 2.77%, 2.28%, and 2.39% respectively. The trading volumes are 4636, 84, and 27 respectively [1] - **Position Information**: The positions of platinum and palladium futures are all 12639 and 4428 respectively [1] - **Spot Premium Information**: The spot premiums of platinum futures (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610) are - 13.76, - 6.81, and - 0.66 respectively. The spot premiums of palladium futures (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610) are - 16.85, - 10.5, and - 10 respectively [1] 3.2 Spot Market - **Price and Change Information**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai platinum, London platinum, Chow Tai Fook platinum, and Lao Feng Xiang platinum are 609.99 yuan/g, 2366.00 dollars/ounce, 893.00 yuan/g, and 960.00 yuan/g respectively. The price changes are 18.39, 111.00, - 12.00, and 0.00 respectively, with price increase rates of 0.031%, 0.049%, - 0.013%, and 0.000% respectively. The previous closing prices of Chinese palladium and Russian palladium are 448.00 yuan/g and 4394.91 rubles/g respectively, with price changes of 2.00 and - 147.57 respectively, and price increase rates of 0.004% and - 0.032% respectively [1] - **Ratio Information**: The current values of platinum/palladium, Shanghai platinum/London platinum, pt2608 - pt2606, pt2610 - pt2606, Chinese palladium/Russian palladium, and pd2608 - pd2606 are 1.36, 1.11, - 6.95, - 13.10, 1.11, and - 6.35 respectively, while the previous values are 9.19, 0.72, - 6.50, - 10.60, - 0.15, and - 0.55 respectively [1] 3.3 Inventory - **Platinum Inventory**: The current NYMEX platinum inventory is 577,735.59 ounces, a decrease of 459.6 ounces compared to the previous value. The NYMEX registered platinum warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 313,567.94 ounces. The trading volume of platinum on the gold exchange is 3,696.15 ten - thousand yuan, an increase of 1685.6 ten - thousand yuan compared to the previous value, and the trading volume is 62.00 kilograms, an increase of 28.00 kilograms compared to the previous value [1] - **Palladium Inventory**: The NYMEX palladium inventory and registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 186,268.54 ounces and 148,317.64 ounces respectively [1] 3.4 Related Derivatives - **Related Indexes**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury bond yield, Nasdaq index, Dow Jones index, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 97.64, 6,878.88, 3.97, 22,668.21, 48,977.92, and 6.92 respectively, with changes of - 0.14, - 29.98, - 0.05, - 210.17, - 521.28, and 0.00 respectively compared to the previous values [1] - **Gold and Silver Futures**: The current values of Shanghai gold futures (2604, 2606, 2608) are 1147.90, 1151.34, and 1154.28 respectively, with increases of 1.42, 1.24, and 1.28 respectively compared to the previous closing prices. The current values of Shanghai silver futures (2604, 2606, 2608) are 23019.00, 22775.00, and 22736.00 respectively, with increases of 447, 489, and 558 respectively compared to the previous closing prices [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic News - **Geopolitical Events**: The military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran have led to disruptions in shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - **US Fed Personnel Changes**: Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman, but the nomination faces opposition. The Fed has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, and Fed Chairman candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut [2] - **China's Central Bank Policy**: The People's Bank of China has held a 2026 payment and settlement work conference, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system and strengthening regulatory measures [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - Global macro格局受四大重磅事件冲击，美以伊军事冲突成市场核心即时变量，需关注冲突烈度及对市场的影响，人民币汇率受央行政策和地缘冲突影响，短期或双向波动，长期升值趋势取决于国内经济和出口情况 [2][3] - 股指受两会和地缘政治局势影响，预计以短期情绪冲击为主，底部支撑强；国债存在上涨契机，但需关注市场环境；集运欧线受地缘冲突和船司挺价影响，预计震荡偏强 [6][7][9] - 碳酸锂短期预计在15 - 20万元/吨区间宽幅震荡，中长期价值支撑稳固；工业硅和多晶硅短期处于产能周期底部，需等待供需格局改善 [11][12][13] - 铝产业链受美伊冲突影响，铝价或震荡偏强，氧化铝震荡整理，铸造铝合金震荡偏强；铜价受库存和下游复工影响，上涨面临压力；锌价预计偏强震荡；镍不锈钢震荡偏强；锡价高位震荡；铅价震荡调整 [15][16][18] - 油料市场，二季度后大豆供应压力回归，菜粕或表现弱势；油脂市场受地缘冲突支撑，可寻找逢低看多机会 [26][27][28] - 燃料油期价有望强势冲高，沥青跟随成本上涨；铂金和钯金中长期牛市基础仍在，黄金和白银战略性看多 [30][32][34] - 纸浆和胶版纸期货可区间交易，纯苯或有低多机会；苯乙烯和LPG受地缘影响，成本支撑增强；甲醇受地缘冲突影响大；聚烯烃短期受情绪和成本驱动，PP基本面支撑强于PE [37][38][40] - 橡胶震荡回调，天胶中长期偏多，顺丁橡胶区间震荡；尿素受美伊战争影响，价格或上涨；玻璃纯碱基本面空间有限；丙烯受成本推动上涨 [50][51][54] - 螺纹和热卷受政策预期和高库存影响，短期内政策支撑盘面，但基本面偏弱；铁矿石供应压制价格，需求预期悲观；焦煤焦炭关注终端需求验证；硅铁和硅锰受消息面驱动上涨，但硅锰受高库存压制 [57][58][60] - 生猪现货持续下跌，可选择卖涨期权；棉花供需偏紧，建议回调布局多单；白糖基本面偏空，关注盘面能否站稳5300；鸡蛋短期窄幅震荡、稳中偏强；苹果关注节后消费和交割逻辑；红枣供需格局偏松，价格承压；原木可观望或低多 [65][66][76] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Focus on the Middle East situation, including the Iran - US - Israel conflict, the impact on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Chinese government's meeting on the "15th Five - Year Plan" [1] - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The central bank adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio to prevent one - sided appreciation expectations. Short - term exchange rate may show two - way fluctuations, and long - term appreciation depends on domestic economic recovery and export strength. Geopolitical conflicts may support the US dollar index [2][3] - **Stock Index**: Affected by the two sessions and geopolitical situation, short - term emotional shocks are expected, with strong bottom support [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: There is an opportunity for an increase, but the market environment needs to be monitored. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and avoid chasing high prices in the short term [6][7][8] - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Geopolitical conflicts and shipping companies' price - holding behavior strengthen short - term support, but weak cargo volume limits the upside. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [9][10] Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely between 150,000 - 200,000 yuan/ton. Long - term value is supported by downstream demand, but risks such as price increases affecting terminal economy need to be noted [11][12] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Currently at the bottom of the production cycle, waiting for supply - demand pattern improvement. Photovoltaic has long - term development potential [12][13][14] Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The US - Iran conflict may cause short - term price fluctuations in electrolytic aluminum. It is recommended to buy call options for aluminum and sell deep - out - of - the - money put options for alumina. Cast aluminum alloy may follow the trend of aluminum [15][16][17] - **Copper**: Affected by high inventory and slow downstream resumption, price increase is restricted. It is advisable to use calendar spread strategies or buy out - of - the - money call options [18][20] - **Zinc**: Under the pressure of inventory accumulation, it is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and the turning point needs to be observed [22] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The trend is slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to US tariff disturbances and Indonesian supply [22][23] - **Tin**: It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, and the impact of risk aversion on the market needs to be noted [23][24] - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and interval operations are recommended [25] Oils and Fats, and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The supply pressure of soybeans will return in the second quarter, and rapeseed meal may be weak [26] - **Oils and Fats**: Supported by geopolitical conflicts, there are opportunities to go long at low prices [26][27][28] Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: Driven by supply shock, cost, and logistics, the futures price is expected to rise strongly [30] - **Asphalt**: The price will follow the cost of crude oil, and short - term geopolitical factors are dominant [31] Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The risk - aversion sentiment is fermented due to the Middle East geopolitical risk. The long - term bull market foundation remains, but position control is needed [32][33] - **Gold and Silver**: The risk - aversion allocation value is prominent. It is recommended to go long strategically and pay attention to economic data and policy expectations [34][35] Chemicals - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: Pulp futures are bearish due to inventory accumulation and weak cost support. Offset paper futures are affected by multiple factors and are in a range - bound state [37][38] - **Benzene and Styrene**: The cost support is enhanced due to the Middle East conflict, and they are likely to follow the rise of crude oil [38][39] - **LPG**: Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the external market is strong and the internal market is weak. The focus is on the situation in the Middle East [39][40][41] - **Methanol**: The geopolitical conflict has a significant impact, and the supply and price are likely to be affected [41][42] - **Plastics and PP**: The cost support is strengthened by the Middle East conflict. PE is supply - strong and demand - weak in the short term, while PP has supply reduction expectations and stronger fundamental support [44][45] - **Rubber**: Natural rubber is expected to fluctuate, and synthetic rubber is expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to supply, demand, and inventory [50][74] - **Urea**: Affected by the US - Iran war, international and domestic prices may rise [51][52] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The fundamental space is limited, and price fluctuations are restricted [53][54] - **Propylene**: Driven by cost, the price is expected to rise, but the downstream acceptance needs to be observed [54][55] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by policy expectations and high inventory, the short - term policy supports the market, but the fundamental weakness limits the upside [57] - **Iron Ore**: The supply suppresses the price, and the demand expectation is pessimistic. It is recommended to be bearish but not to short [58][59][60] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Enter the terminal demand verification period, and the real data is important. The price may face downward pressure if the supply recovers more than expected and the macro - sentiment weakens [60][61] - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Driven by market rumors, silicon iron has a better fundamental situation, while silicon manganese is restricted by high inventory [61][62][63] Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The spot price continues to decline, and selling call options on the main contract is recommended [65] - **Cotton**: The domestic supply - demand is expected to be tight. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to foreign trade policies and export progress [66][67][68] - **Sugar**: The fundamental situation is bearish, and attention should be paid to whether the price can stand above 5300 [68][69] - **Eggs**: The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly and be slightly stronger in the short term, and selling call options on the main contract is recommended [69][70] - **Apples**: Pay attention to post - festival consumption and the delivery logic. The price may decline if the demand is weak [76][77] - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure, likely to maintain low - level fluctuations [77][78] - **Logs**: The spot price has support, but the demand has not recovered significantly. Geopolitical factors may affect supply and cost. It is advisable to wait and see or go long at low prices [79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, cotton prices hit a new high, with relatively favorable fundamentals. The US court halted the current tariffs, effectively reducing export tariffs to the US. However, after the price increase, some early low - position long positions took profits and left the market, weakening the upward momentum. - The cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is expected to be reduced by more than 10%. According to the USDA February report, the global cotton production in the 25/26 season is 26.096 million tons, consumption is 25.847 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.353 million tons. In December, China's textile and clothing exports were $25.99 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%. In December, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 31%, and 170,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's February forecast for the 25/26 season, China's cotton production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. - In the short term, the positive factors for Zhengzhou cotton futures have been fully reflected, and the market needs adjustment. Fundamentally, the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are coming, US tariffs have been reduced, and Sino - US relations have eased, which is beneficial for textile exports. Investors with long positions in cotton can reduce their positions to take profits, and the market will mainly fluctuate widely. [4] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day Review - After the holiday, cotton prices hit a new high. The US court halted current tariffs, reducing export tariffs to the US. Some early low - position long positions took profits after the price increase, weakening the upward momentum. The cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is expected to be reduced by more than 10%. There are various data on global and Chinese cotton production, consumption, imports, and exports. [4] 3.2 Daily Prompt - Positive factors include the expected reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 by over 10%, pre - holiday downstream replenishment, reduced export tariffs to the US, improved Sino - US relations, and the arrival of the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April". Negative factors include the overall decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the large - scale listing of new cotton, and the current traditional consumption off - season. [5][6] 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In the 25/26 season, global cotton production is 26.096 million tons, consumption is 25.847 million tons, and ending inventory is 16.353 million tons. There are also detailed data on production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory of major cotton - producing and consuming countries such as China, India, the US, etc. [9][10] - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: For the 2025/2026 season, the area is 30.41385 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, the production is 25.39956 million tons, the beginning inventory is 15.83577 million tons, the import volume is 9.71442 million tons, the consumption is 25.00778 million tons, the export volume is 9.71412 million tons, the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 0.65. [12] - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: For the 25/26 season, China's cotton sown area is 2.979 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 2,229 kg/ha, the production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The average domestic cotton 3128B price is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents/pound. [14] 3.5 Position Data - No information provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, as the US and Iran conducted the third round of indirect negotiations, geopolitical risks in the Middle East gradually cooled down, and crude oil gave back some of its premium. Combined with the end of the peak winter heating demand season in the Northern Hemisphere, domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a trend of rising and then giving back some gains, with a strong oscillation at a high level. The weekly cumulative increase of the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 reached 6.01% to 488.4 yuan per barrel [4][13][14]. - As the US and Israel launched military attacks on Iran, geopolitical risks in the Middle East quickly heated up. Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and energy supplies such as crude oil and natural gas could not be transported out of the Middle East. Crude oil premiums may rise significantly. Although OPEC+ oil - producing countries announced that they would resume production increases in the second quarter, short - term geopolitical factors outweighed the weak supply - demand fundamentals of crude oil. Driven by positive factors, international crude oil futures prices rose sharply, which may drive domestic crude oil futures to open sharply higher and run strongly on Monday. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures may maintain a strong trend in the future. Be vigilant about the US announcing the release of strategic crude oil reserves to stabilize international crude oil prices [5][67]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **1.1 Spot prices rose significantly, and the basis discount slightly converged**: As of the week ending February 27, 2026, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area in China was 67.74 US dollars per barrel, equivalent to 469.0 yuan per barrel, a week - on - week increase of 28.3 yuan per barrel. The main domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 closed at 488.4 yuan per barrel, a week - on - week increase of 27.7 yuan per barrel. The discount degree slightly converged, and the basis between them was 19.5 yuan per barrel [8]. - **1.2 Geopolitical risks weakened, and crude oil gave back its premium**: After the holiday, as the US and Iran conducted the third round of indirect negotiations, geopolitical risks in the Middle East gradually cooled down, and crude oil gave back some of its premium. Combined with the end of the peak winter heating demand season in the Northern Hemisphere, domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a trend of rising and then giving back some gains, with a strong oscillation at a high level. The weekly cumulative increase of the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 reached 6.01% to 488.4 yuan per barrel [13][14]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Maintained an Excess Expectation, and the Production Increase Rhythm Slowed Down - **2.1 OPEC+ production increase rhythm slowed down, and the supply excess expectation remained**: In April 2023, eight countries including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, etc. announced a voluntary production cut of about 1.65 million barrels per day of crude oil, and in November 2023, they announced an additional voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day of crude oil. These two production cut measures were extended many times. However, during this period, the crude oil production of countries such as the US and Canada increased, causing OPEC to lose some market share. Since the second quarter of 2025, eight major OPEC+ oil - producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia launched a systematic and phased production increase policy, shifting their production strategy from "production cut to maintain prices" in the past two years to "production increase to stabilize the market and compete for market share". The actual production of OPEC showed that the strong production increase expectation was fulfilled. In December 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production was 28.564 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 105,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 1.874 million barrels per day [23][24][25]. - **2.2 Non - OPEC oil - producing countries' production capacity maintained a high level**: The capacity expansion of non - OPEC+ countries further exacerbated the supply excess. The production of South American oil - producing countries represented by Brazil and Guyana continued to rise, and US shale oil showed amazing resilience. As of the week ending February 20, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 409, with a week - on - week increase of 0 and a year - on - year decrease of 79. As of the week ending February 20, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the US was 13.702 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 33,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 200,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [37]. - **2.3 The Northern Hemisphere's crude oil demand will enter the off - season**: As the world's largest crude oil consumer, the US has obvious seasonal changes in crude oil demand. After mid - February, the crude oil consumption in the Northern Hemisphere will enter the off - season, the demand factor will weaken, and the inventory will change from destocking to stockpiling. EIA and IEA both predicted an oversupply of global oil in the future, and the demand growth rate in the next two years will be less than half of that in 2023. The oil consumption in India, which was expected to be the growth point of demand, declined in the first seven months of 2025 [39][40][41]. - **2.4 US crude oil inventory increased significantly, and refinery operating rates decreased slightly**: As of the week ending February 20, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 435.8 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 15.989 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 5.643 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 24.899 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 881,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.212 million barrels, unchanged week - on - week. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 88.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 2.1 percentage points [42]. - **2.5 China's crude oil imports increased slightly in 2025**: In 2025, China's crude oil market showed the characteristics of "record - high imports, stable production growth, and processing transformation". In December 2025, China's crude oil imports reached 55.97 million tons (13.18 million barrels per day), a year - on - year increase of 0.2%; the cumulative crude oil imports in 2025 reached 577.73 million tons (11.55 million barrels per day), a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In December 2025, China's crude oil production remained stable, and the crude oil processing speeded up. In 2026, China's crude oil consumption will enter a new stage of "stable total volume and optimized structure", with both support and restraint factors. The import volume will remain at a high level, and the consumption structure will be optimized [46][47][49]. 3.3 Global Geopolitical Conflicts Broke Out in Multiple Areas, and Crude Oil Premiums Increased - During the Spring Festival in 2026, the Middle East was in a high - risk balance of "talking and fighting at the same time". The core of the crisis was the extreme game between the US and Iran around the nuclear issue and regional dominance. The Red Sea shipping crisis resonated with the US - Iran confrontation, and the intervention of major - power games made the Middle East crisis more global. This geopolitical storm has directly pushed up international oil prices, and if the situation further escalates, oil prices may break through $100 per barrel [56][57][58]. 3.4 The Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Increased Significantly Week - on - Week - Since February 2026, international crude oil futures prices have shown a volatile and strong trend, and the market's long - making power has also increased. As of February 17, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 141,343 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 23,529 contracts and a significant increase of 68,529 contracts compared with the January average of 72,814 contracts, with an increase of 94.12%. As of February 17, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 250,016 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 526 contracts and a significant increase of 65,570 contracts compared with the January average of 184,446 contracts, with an increase of 35.55% [60]. 3.5 Conclusion - As the US and Israel launched military attacks on Iran, geopolitical risks in the Middle East quickly heated up. Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and crude oil premiums may rise significantly. Although OPEC+ oil - producing countries announced that they would resume production increases in the second quarter, short - term geopolitical factors outweighed the weak supply - demand fundamentals of crude oil. Driven by positive factors, international crude oil futures prices rose sharply, which may drive domestic crude oil futures to open sharply higher and run strongly on Monday. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures may maintain a strong trend in the future. Be vigilant about the US announcing the release of strategic crude oil reserves to stabilize international crude oil prices [67].

专题报告 2026-03-02 原油地缘政治解读：伊朗危机 1. 全球内陆库存的累库导致基本面上方已经全面锁死，短期地缘溢价无法带动持续的单价脉 冲。 2. 霍尔木兹海峡目前尚未受阻，短期即便有所预期，但仍无法冲击极端价格 100 美元或以上 关口。 3. 中东各国排船积极，内陆需求对当前油价已经出现观望态势，短期需求将制约油价上方空 间。 4. 大国 SPR 意愿对当前油价已经出现抵触。 能源化工研究 | 原油 报告要点： 张正华 橡胶、聚酯、PVC 分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 严梓桑（联系人） 油品、甲醇、尿素、聚烯 烃、苯系分析师 从业资格号：F03149203 15805136842 yanzs@wkqh.cn 以色列宣布对伊朗实施"咆哮之狮"打击，德黑兰传出爆炸并引发以色列全国防空警报、停课 停工、关闭空域；路透称美方军事行动与以方协同，伊朗最高领袖被转移至安全地点，并警告 将报复、目标可包括周边美军基地。受此影响，油市短期预计重新计入霍尔木兹航运与伊朗出 口受扰的尾部风险。在美伊爆发冲突背景下，市场 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Middle East situation has escalated sharply due to the large - scale joint military strike by the US and Israel against Iran, and Iran's counter - attack. The oil tanker transportation in the Strait of Hormuz has come to a standstill, and the Red Sea Houthi armed forces have resumed attacks on shipping. Oil prices face a short - term risk of skyrocketing. It is recommended to operate in the 490 - 550 range in the short term and wait and see in the long term [3][4][6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Review - Last week, crude oil continued to fluctuate under the influence of geopolitical factors and rose significantly at the end of the session. The price of the main light crude oil futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $67.29 per barrel, up 1.48% for the week; the price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract closed at $73.21 per barrel, up 2.77% for the week; the price of the main SC crude oil futures contract in China closed at 502.4 yuan per barrel, up 3.16% for the week [3] - The market has been concerned about the progress of the US - Iran situation. Although two rounds of indirect talks have been held, no substantial progress has been made. The situation between the US and Iran has become more tense near the weekend, which has stimulated the continuous rise of oil prices. Geopolitical events have continued to attract long - term capital inflows [3] - The US and Israel launched a large - scale joint military strike against Iran on February 28, with the goal of overthrowing the Iranian regime. Iran counter - attacked with missiles and drones, and the Middle East situation has escalated sharply [3] - OPEC+ originally planned to approve a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in April, but after the military conflict, member states may approve a production increase plan three to four times the original scale. However, the production increase capacity is restricted, and most of the remaining production capacity is concentrated in Saudi Arabia [4] - Due to the military conflict, the oil tanker transportation in the Strait of Hormuz has come to a standstill, and many oil companies and energy traders have suspended oil and fuel shipping through the strait. The interruption of the Strait of Hormuz may impact the global energy transportation [4] 2. Related Information - Not provided in the report 3. Outlook - The Middle East situation has escalated, the oil tanker transportation in the Strait of Hormuz has stopped, and the Houthi armed forces in the Red Sea have resumed attacks on shipping. Oil prices face a short - term risk of skyrocketing. It is recommended to operate in the 490 - 550 range in the short term and wait and see in the long term [6][7] 4. Fundamental Data - **Spot Weekly Prices**: The prices of various types of crude oil such as UK Brent Dtd, WTI, etc. have increased to varying degrees, with the increase rate ranging from 0.01% to 2.24% [9] - **Cushing Inventory**: The Cushing inventory has fluctuated, with an increase of 881,000 barrels as of February 20 [10] - **EIA Inventory**: The EIA inventory has also fluctuated, with an increase of 15.989 million barrels as of February 20 [11] 5.持仓 Data - **CFTC Fund Net Long Positions**: As of February 24, the net long positions of WTI crude oil held by speculators increased by 31,369 contracts to 172,712 contracts [3][17] - **ICE Fund Net Long Positions**: As of February 24, the net long positions of Brent crude oil futures increased by 57,766 contracts to 320,952 contracts [3][19]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-03-02原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2604： 1.基本面：以色列周日发动新一轮对德黑兰的袭击，伊朗则以更多导弹袭击作为回应，此前一天伊朗最高领 袖哈梅内伊遇袭身亡，使中东局势和全球经济陷入日益加深的不确定性；周日航运数据显示，在美以对伊朗 发动空袭导致该地区陷入动荡后，至少150艘油轮在霍尔木兹海峡外的海湾公海水域抛锚停泊，另有数十艘 油轮停泊在该航运咽喉要道的另一侧；OPEC+周日同意小幅增产20.6万桶/日；偏多 2.基差：2月27日，阿曼原油现货价为71.39美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为70.80美元/桶，基差52.45元/ 桶，现货升水期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict in the Middle East has escalated, affecting the financial markets in the region. The market impact on a global scale depends on potential changes in three key signals: US military mobilization, changes in the Iranian political situation, and the scope of conflict spillover. The general rule is that the safe - haven asset gold is better than the US dollar, long - term oil prices are still determined by supply and demand, the performance of the US stock market is directly related to the degree of US military intervention and the trend of the war situation, and there is no significant impact on Chinese assets [7][8]. - In the short term, the market style may switch from "policy expectation" to "performance realization". A - shares are likely to open lower due to the decline of US stock indices and geopolitical conflicts, but the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged [18][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry - On March 2, 2026, among domestic chemical products, the prices of crude oil, fuel oil, plastic, PP, PTA, PVC, asphalt, methanol, and LPG rose, with fuel oil having the largest increase of 3.378%, while the prices of coking coal, coke, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, ethylene glycol, styrene, glass, soda ash, pulp, and caustic soda declined, with coking coal having a decline of 1.417% [4]. 3.2 Agricultural Products - On March 2, 2026, among domestic agricultural products, the prices of soybean No. 1, rapeseed meal, white sugar, yellow corn, corn starch, and palm oil rose, with yellow corn having an increase of 0.932%, while the prices of soybean No. 2, soybean meal, eggs, cotton yarn declined, with soybean meal having a decline of 0.247% [4]. 3.3 Macro News - On February 28, Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei was assassinated and killed. The Iranian government announced a 40 - day national mourning and will soon elect a new supreme leader. US President Trump said that the US military action against Iran may last about four weeks and that he has agreed to dialogue with the new Iranian leadership [7]. - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated China's stance on the Iranian situation during a phone call with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: stop military actions immediately, return to dialogue and negotiation as soon as possible, and jointly oppose unilateral actions [7]. - This week, there are many major global market events, including the opening of the 2026 National Two Sessions, the release of China's February PMI, foreign exchange and gold reserve data, and new product launches by Apple and Alibaba [8]. - Many new - energy vehicle manufacturers released their February delivery data, and some offered car - buying discounts in March [9]. - The 15th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference decided that the 4th session of the 14th National Committee of the CPPCC will be held in Beijing on March 4, 2026 [9]. 3.4 Morning Meeting Views on Major Products 3.4.1 Agricultural Products - White sugar: On February 27, the price of the main contract rose 0.74%. In the short term, the price center may move up further, but it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure level and import policy changes [11]. - Corn: On February 27, the price of the main contract rose 0.77%. The short - term trend is high - level oscillation, but there is a risk of correction. Attention should be paid to the upper and lower support levels [11]. - Peanuts: On February 27, the price of the main contract fell slightly by 0.15%. The current price oscillates around the cost line. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the 7850 - 8000 yuan range [11]. - Live pigs: The current overall supply exceeds demand, and the spot price is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, and the overall market remains in bottom - level oscillation [11]. - Eggs: The current national egg spot price is mainly stable. The near - term and long - term prices show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, with a large basis, suppressing the near - term prices, and the long - term prices remain oscillating after the decline [12]. - Red dates: After the Spring Festival, the market is slowly resuming. The spot price of red dates is temporarily stable, and the market is in bottom - level oscillation. It is recommended to buy low and sell high [12]. - Cotton: On February 27, the price of the main contract rose slightly by 0.29%. In the long - term, cotton prices are strongly supported by the expectation of supply tightening, but there is a risk of correction due to insufficient demand [12]. 3.4.2 Energy and Chemicals - Caustic soda: The fundamental situation of caustic soda remains in an oversupply pattern, and the near - term contracts may continue to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of supply - side disturbances on prices [12]. - Coking coal and coke: After the Spring Festival, the prices of coking coal and coke are under pressure, and the fundamentals are expected to continue in a weakly oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to the linkage effect of rising energy prices due to the Middle East situation [12]. - Double - offset paper: The price of the main contract of double - offset paper is oscillating downward. The supply - side pressure persists, and the demand - side purchasing enthusiasm is still low. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy [12]. - Urea: The price of urea in the domestic spot market is running strongly. The demand in the agricultural peak season is supportive, but factors such as the release of stored goods and price - stabilizing policies may suppress the upward space. Attention should be paid to the 1750 - 1940 yuan/ton operating range [13]. 3.4.3 Non - ferrous Metals - Gold and silver: The prices of gold and silver are oscillating at high levels with large fluctuations. The increase in inflation pressure, policy uncertainty of the Federal Reserve, the increase in speculative net long positions, and the escalation of the Middle East situation have promoted the rise of precious metals [13]. - Copper and aluminum: The global macro - environment shows a pattern of weak balance and high volatility. The domestic social inventory of copper and aluminum is in a seasonal accumulation period. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand and supply - side risks due to the Middle East situation [13]. - Alumina: After the Spring Festival, the overall inventory of the domestic alumina market has decreased slightly, but the oversupply situation has not been fundamentally reversed. It is expected to remain at a low level and wait for new market drivers [15]. 3.4.4 Steel and Iron Alloys - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: After the Spring Festival, the inventory of the five major steel products continues to accumulate. Rebar still faces inventory accumulation pressure in the short term, while the demand for hot - rolled coil starts faster. The steel prices are expected to have limited downward space and upward rebound space. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the specified price ranges [14]. - Ferroalloys: After the Spring Festival, the fundamentals of ferroalloys have not changed much. The supply has increased while the demand has decreased. From a macro perspective, the prices of commodities with high import dependence and external pricing power fluctuate more. In the short term, a bullish view on corrections is recommended, and industrial hedging should wait for better opportunities [14]. 3.4.5 Lithium Carbonate - On February 27, the price of the main contract of lithium carbonate rose 1.37%. The supply - demand pattern is tightening. It is recommended to consider buying on dips with a light position, but attention should be paid to the risk of sharp fluctuations due to insufficient market liquidity [14]. 3.4.6 Options and Finance - Stock index options: On February 27, the three major A - share indices showed different trends. The trading volume of options decreased, the open interest increased, and the implied volatility decreased. Trend investors should focus on arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can buy straddles to bet on increased volatility when the volatility drops significantly [16]. - Stock indices: Geopolitical risks have resurfaced. A - shares are likely to open lower, but the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the support of funds for a potential rebound [20]. - RMB: Since February, the RMB has continued its unilateral appreciation trend. The central bank's decision to reduce the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales helps to weaken the expectation of unilateral RMB appreciation and maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate [19].