1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, macro - economic conditions, and supply - demand relationships. Different commodities show different trends and investment outlooks. [5][7][10] - In the face of uncertainties, investors are advised to take different strategies for different commodities, including waiting and seeing, light - position participation, etc. [6][9][11] 3. Summary by Commodity Fixed - income - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed with mixed results. Given the current macro - economic situation, the market is expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised. [5][6] Equity - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed different trends. Although the domestic economy is stable, the recovery momentum is not strong. Considering the uncertainties in the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines. [7][8][9] Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the value of gold. However, due to the uncertainties in the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines. [10][11] Base Metals - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, while in the medium term, it is dominated by supply - demand. Rebar prices may rebound but with limited space, and hot - rolled coil may follow a similar trend. Investors can pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities. [12][13] - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. The Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand. The increase in demand may support prices, but the high inventory may limit the upside. Technically, it may rebound in the short term, and investors can consider low - position long - entry. [14][15] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly. The Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand. Coking coal supply may increase, while coke demand may expand. Technically, they may continue to be strong in the short term, and investors can pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities. [15][16] - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, manganese silicon rose and silicon iron fell. The cost of ferroalloys is fluctuating slightly, and the supply is relatively loose. After a short - term price increase, investors can consider taking profits on long positions. [17][18] Energy - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil opened high and closed low. The increase in net long positions in futures and options shows that US funds are optimistic about the future of crude oil. The reduction in the number of drilling rigs by US shale oil producers supports prices. Due to the complex situation in the US - Iran - Israel conflict, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines. [19][20][22] Chemicals - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou mostly rose, and the LLDPE market in Yuyao was stable. Supply pressure is expected to ease, but demand growth is slow. The market is expected to be in a high - level consolidation in the short term, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines. [23][24] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber contract rose. The cost of butadiene is high, and the supply pressure is slightly relieved. The market is expected to be in a strong - side shock. [25][26][27] - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, natural rubber contracts rose. The market is in a short - term multi - empty game, and it is expected to be in a wide - range shock. [28][29] - **PVC**: The previous trading day, the PVC contract fell. The market is in a game between cost support, demand start, and high inventory. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock, but the upside is limited by high inventory. [30][31][32] - **Urea**: The previous trading day, the urea contract fell. The market is in a game between high supply and policy constraints. It is expected to fluctuate, and the downside is limited. [33][34] - **PX**: The previous trading day, the PX contract rose. The PX factory load has decreased, and the supply is expected to be tight. The price may fluctuate widely in the short term, and cautious operation is recommended. [35][36] - **PTA**: The previous trading day, the PTA contract rose. The PTA plant restarted, and the downstream polyester plant cut production. The short - term multi - empty game is intensifying, and cautious operation is recommended. [37] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol contract rose. The supply may decline, but the demand is weak. The price needs to be treated with caution, and attention should be paid to the negotiation progress and the situation in the Strait. [38][39] - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber contract rose. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. It is still trading based on the cost logic, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and plant dynamics. [40] - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day, the bottle - chip contract rose. The supply and demand fundamentals have little change, and the processing fee is being repaired. Due to the changing Middle East situation, it is advisable to participate cautiously. [41][42] - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, the soda - ash contract fell slightly. The supply is relatively high, and the demand is average. The cost support is affected by the fundamentals, and the price is expected to be in a stalemate. [43][44] - **Glass**: The previous trading day, the glass contract rose slightly. The production line is shrinking, and the inventory reduction is slowing down. The cost support is still there, and the market sentiment may fluctuate. [45] - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, the caustic - soda contract fell. The supply decreased slightly, and the inventory did not decrease significantly. The price of caustic soda in Shandong and other places has risen, and attention should be paid to overseas plant dynamics and export orders. [46][47] - **Pulp**: The previous trading day, the pulp contract rose slightly. The port inventory increased rapidly, and the demand was weak, which restricted the rebound height. [48][49] Non - ferrous Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day, the lithium - carbonate contract rose. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped, and the supply is tight. The demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving. The price has short - term support, but the short - term volatility may increase. [50][51] - **Copper**: The previous trading day, the copper contract fell. The macro - sentiment and fundamentals jointly affect the price. The price is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment. [52][53] - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day, the aluminum and alumina contracts rose. The supply is affected by policies and geopolitical conflicts, and the demand is strong. The price is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment and may rise in the long term. [54][55][56] - **Zinc**: The previous trading day, the zinc contract rose. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is improving. The price is expected to be in a range - bound oscillation. [57][58] - **Lead**: The previous trading day, the lead contract fell. The supply is tightened, and the demand has rigid support. The price is expected to be in a range - bound operation. [59][60][61] - **Tin**: The previous trading day, the tin contract rose. The supply is slightly relieved, and the demand in the emerging fields is strong. The price has support, but the short - term volatility may increase. [62] - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, the nickel contract fell. The policy risk in Indonesia increases, and the supply of nickel ore is expected to be tight. However, the downstream demand is weak, and the overall supply is in surplus. [63][64] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, the soybean - meal contract fell, and the soybean - oil contract rose. The supply of soybeans is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term, and the short - term supply may be tight. It is advisable to wait and see. [65][66] - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, the palm - oil contract rose. The export volume increased, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. It is advisable to consider closing long positions. [67][68][69] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, the rapeseed - meal contract fell, and the rapeseed - oil contract was stable. The imports of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal increased, and the inventory is at different levels. It is advisable to wait and see. [70][71] - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, the cotton contract fluctuated. The global cotton production is expected to decrease, and the domestic supply is expected to be tight in the long term. The short - term supply pressure is relieved by the quota issuance. The price is expected to be strong in the long term. [72][74][75] - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, the sugar contract fluctuated. The international sugar price has support, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The long - term sugar price bottom has risen. [76][77][78] - **Apple**: The previous trading day, the apple contract fluctuated. With the peak of Tomb - Sweeping Festival备货, the demand is released, and the market is expected to be stable and strong. Attention should be paid to the weather during the flowering period. [79][80] - **Live Hogs**: The previous trading day, the live - hog contract rose. The supply pressure is still large, and the consumption is weak. It is advisable to hold short positions lightly. [81][82] - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, the egg contract rose. The egg supply is improving, and the supply structure is differentiated. It is advisable to wait and see. [83][84] - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The previous trading day, the corn and corn - starch contracts fell. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, and the corn - starch demand is slightly improving. Attention can be paid to the short - term selling opportunity of the forward contract. [85][86][87] - **Logs**: The previous trading day, the log contract rose. The supply of New Zealand logs may shrink, the downstream demand is improving, and the consumption shows a differentiated pattern. The market is affected by geopolitical conflicts. [88][89][90]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - **For Soybean Meal (M2605)**: It is expected to oscillate in the range of 2900 - 2960. The U.S. soybean market is affected by the implementation of the biodiesel policy and technical adjustments, waiting for further guidance on Sino - U.S. trade agreements and South American soybean harvest weather. The domestic soybean meal market is influenced by the U.S. soybean trend and the short - term easing of the Middle East conflict, returning to an oscillating pattern. The current situation is neutral, with a positive basis, an increase in inventory, a neutral position on the disk, a decrease in short positions of the main force, and an overall short - term oscillating and strengthening trend [9]. - **For Soybeans (A2605)**: It is expected to oscillate in the range of 4500 - 4600. The U.S. soybean market has similar influencing factors as above. The domestic soybean market is affected by the U.S. soybean trend and the short - term cooling of the Middle East conflict, but short - term demand supports the disk. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. The current situation is neutral, with a positive basis, a decrease in inventory, a negative position on the disk, an increase in short positions of the main force, and various factors affecting the price [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - U.S. tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and U.S. soybean weather are still uncertain. The U.S. market is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term, waiting for further guidance on South American soybean harvest, imported soybean arrivals, and subsequent Sino - U.S. trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China continues to decline in the first quarter, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remains at a relatively high level in March. The planting and growth weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and soybean meal has returned to an interval oscillation [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig restocking, and the demand for soybean meal remains low in March, suppressing the price expectation. The influence of U.S. soybeans and the weak demand for soybean meal interact [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in South American soybean production areas, and the preliminary Sino - U.S. trade negotiation agreement has an impact. Soybean meal is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term, waiting for further clarity on the Middle East situation, confirmation of South American soybean production, and further guidance on subsequent Sino - U.S. trade negotiations [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal**: The positives include the preliminary Sino - U.S. trade negotiation agreement, no pressure on the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in South American soybean production areas. The negatives are the relatively high arrival volume of imported soybeans in March and the expected high yield of South American soybeans under normal weather conditions. The current main logic is to focus on the impact of South American soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - U.S. trade agreement [14]. - **Soybeans**: The positives are the cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean disk and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand. The negatives are the high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in the production of new domestic soybeans. The current main logic is to focus on the impact of U.S. soybean weather and the Sino - U.S. trade tariff game [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From March 19th to 27th, the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also showed small fluctuations [16]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From March 20th to 27th, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal showed a downward trend [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From March 18th to 27th, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal decreased to varying degrees [20]. - **Soybean Meal Spot Price**: The spot price of soybean meal showed a downward trend, and the spot premium at a high level narrowed [23]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: They show the historical data of global and domestic soybean harvest areas, production, consumption, and inventory from 2016 to 2025 [32][33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: It includes the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the U.S., and Brazil from 2023 - 2026 [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: They show the planting area, yield, production, and other data of U.S. soybeans in the past six months [44]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report Other Data - The weekly export inspection of U.S. soybeans has rebounded both month - on - month and year - on - year [45]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans has rebounded from a low level, both month - on - month and year - on - year [47]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a normal level [50]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains at a relatively high level, and the soybean meal production in February decreased slightly year - on - year [52]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have slightly decreased, and the short - term stocking demand is good [54]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has oscillated and decreased following U.S. soybeans, and the disk profit has fluctuated slightly [56]. - The pig inventory has slightly increased year - on - year, while the sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month [58]. - The pig price has continued to decline recently, and the average slaughter weight has slightly decreased [60]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has fluctuated slightly [62]. - The domestic pig - farming profit loss has expanded [64]. - The pig - grain ratio and feed - meat ratio have fallen to a low level [66].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive overview of overnight market trends, important news, and financial market developments across various sectors including commodities, finance, and international affairs. It highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on commodity prices and energy markets, as well as significant events in the financial and industrial sectors globally [5][10][29] Summary by Directory Overnight Night Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 2.59% at $4489.70 per ounce (down 1.86% for the week) and COMEX silver futures up 2.70% at $69.77 per ounce (up 0.15% for the week). Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, high inflation, low consumer confidence, energy price increase expectations, and Fed policy uncertainty boosted demand for gold and other safe - haven inflation - resistant assets [5] - U.S. crude oil futures rose 7.09% to $101.18 per barrel (up 3% for the week), and Brent crude futures rose 4.32% to $106.29 per barrel (down 0.11% for the week). Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz led to concerns about crude oil supply [5] - Most London base metals rose, with LME tin up 4.25% at $46000.0 per ton (up 6.29% for the week), LME zinc up 0.81% at $3106.5 per ton (up 1.29% for the week), etc. LME copper and nickel declined slightly but still had weekly gains [6] - As of last Friday's 23:00 close, most domestic futures contracts rose. Low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose over 5%, methanol rose over 4%, while caustic soda fell over 2% and synthetic rubber and soda ash fell over 1% [8] Important News Macro News - Iran's Revolutionary Guard closed the Strait of Hormuz, threatening "severe measures" against ships traveling to and from ports of U.S. and Israeli allies [10] - From January to February 2026, the total electricity market trading volume in China was 1192.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 25.5%. Provincial trading volume was 954.3 billion kWh (up 29.2% year - on - year), and cross - provincial and cross - regional trading volume was 238.2 billion kWh (up 12.7% year - on - year) [10] - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange will expand the scope of tradable products for QFIIs and RQFIIs from April 22, 2026, adding 20 - rubber and international copper options contracts [10] - As of March 27, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index rose 119.82 points to 1826.77, and the China Export Container Freight Index rose 1.6% to 1139.04 [10] - Iran's navy is monitoring the U.S. "Lincoln" aircraft carrier group, threatening to launch missiles if it enters Iran's range [11] - Iran's parliamentary speaker advised investors to go against market "news" as it may be a trap for profit - taking [13] Energy and Chemical Futures - Brazil's Buzios crude and Congo's Djeno crude were added as deliverable oil types for crude oil futures, with specified loading ports [15] - As of March 20, 2026, the rubber (RSS) inventory in the Osaka Exchange's designated warehouses increased by 903 tons to 3819 tons compared to March 10 [15] - Russia's Novatek shut down a gas condensate processing facility and suspended naphtha exports due to a drone attack [16] - Iran's parliamentarian said the security situation on Kharg Island is stable, and oil exports are proceeding smoothly, warning of a firm response to any attacks [16] Metal Futures - In February 2026, global alumina production was 1181.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.51% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.17%. China's estimated alumina production was 705 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.98% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% [19] - Indonesia postponed the plan to levy windfall taxes on coal and nickel exports originally scheduled for April 1 [19] - Guinea reached a settlement with UAE's EGA regarding the takeover of Guinea Alumina Corporation, with compensation plans in progress [19] - Two large aluminum plants in Bahrain and the UAE were attacked by Iran, which may impact the global aluminum market as Middle - East aluminum exports account for about 10% of global supply [20] Black - Series Futures - Steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai plan to raise the prices of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton from April 1, 2026 [22] - Mysteel data showed that the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports decreased by 98.09 million tons to 17000.31 million tons, and the daily average port clearance volume decreased by 7.80 million tons. Similar trends were observed at 47 ports [22] - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.03%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.63%, a week - on - week increase of 1.10 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 43.29%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87 percentage points; and the daily average pig iron output was 231.09 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.94 million tons [24] Agricultural Futures - As of March 25, the pig - to - grain ratio in Ningxia was 4.08:1, entering the first - level early - warning range of excessive decline. The region will start pork reserve purchases [26] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25, 2026, were estimated to be 1080898 tons, a 50.42% increase compared to the same period last month [27] - As of the week of March 27, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was a loss of 344.24 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 189.87 yuan per head, both showing increased losses compared to March 20 [27] - U.S. private exporters reported the sale of 105,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2025/2026 marketing year [28] Financial Market Finance - The Shanghai Stock Exchange will deepen capital market investment and financing reform in three aspects: leveraging equity and bond financing, building a "long - term money, long - term investment" ecosystem, and cultivating Chinese - characteristic financial culture [29] - Citic Securities' research report suggested that countries with resource, geographical, and manufacturing advantages will leverage these advantages. Short - term capital markets are in a sentiment - cooling period, and it is recommended to hold on to China's advantageous manufacturing industries [29] - Qunhe Technology, a spatial intelligence unicorn, passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's listing hearing and is in the final stage of its Hong Kong IPO [29] Industry - The world's first general intelligent human "Tongtong" 3.0 and the embodied intelligence core engine "Tongnao" were launched at the 2026 Zhongguancun Forum, marking a key leap in China's general artificial intelligence field [30] - In 2025, Beijing's artificial intelligence industry scale reached 450 billion yuan, accounting for half of the national total, with over 2500 enterprises, more than 60 listed companies, 15 enterprises with a market value of over 100 billion yuan, and about 40 unicorn enterprises [31] - Hainan released its first batch of artificial intelligence application scenarios at a private enterprise symposium [32] - Many funds, including those from Southern Fund and other public - offering funds, have reduced their fees in 2026 [32] - In late March, banks in Jiangsu, Jilin, Fujian, and Sichuan lowered deposit interest rates, with medium - and long - term products being the focus of adjustment [32] - Baotou Steel Group's discovery of Xianhualaniumniobium ore was approved as a new mineral [33] - In 2025, the domestic retail sales of non - trendy toys reached 103.53 billion yuan (up 5.8% year - on - year), and the retail sales of trendy and collectible toys reached 67.69 billion yuan (up 45.4% year - on - year) [33] - Beijing launched the development and application of intelligent connected new - energy vehicle commercial insurance products [33] Overseas - Pakistan is mediating peace talks between the U.S. and Iran, and a committee of four foreign ministers will formulate a conflict - resolution plan [35] - G7 foreign ministers discussed post - war security in the Strait of Hormuz but did not reach an agreement on a cease - fire schedule and withdrawal strategy [35] - The UK's finance minister urged G7 countries not to introduce new trade barriers during the Iran conflict [36] - The U.S. allowed a Russian oil tanker to enter Cuban waters, breaking its months - long oil blockade on Cuba [36] - The U.S. Senate Banking Committee plans to hold a hearing on President Trump's nominee for Fed chair, Kevin Warsh [37] - South Korea may activate a resource security crisis warning if oil prices reach $120 - 130 per barrel, expanding vehicle license plate - based traffic restrictions [37] - Vietnamese airlines will cut domestic and international flights from April due to high fuel prices and supply shortages [37] International Stock Markets - European countries started daylight saving time, advancing the trading time of European stock markets and the release time of economic data [39] - Wall Street's average bonus reached a record high of nearly $250,000 in 2025, but the growth rate was lower than expected [39] Commodities - Saudi Arabia's key oil pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz is operating at full capacity, but the Red Sea may become a new conflict front [40] - Two large aluminum plants in the Middle East were attacked, which may impact the global aluminum market [40] - In the third week of March, the average price of pigs in 30 Chinese provinces dropped to 11.05 yuan per kilogram, a 28% year - on - year decrease, hitting a new low since June 2018 [40] Bonds - Due to rising risk - aversion sentiment, 21.5 billion yuan of funds flowed from stock and commodity ETFs to bond ETFs last week [42] Foreign Exchange - The digital RMB is accelerating its implementation in Hong Kong, with 80,000 wallets opened using Hong Kong mobile phone numbers and about 5200 local merchants accepting it [43] Upcoming Event Calendar - Various economic data releases are scheduled throughout the day, including Germany's import/export price index, Switzerland's KOF economic leading indicator, etc. [45] - Multiple events are scheduled, such as the release of the Bank of Japan's March monetary policy meeting minutes, China's central bank's open - market operations, and several conferences and new stock listings [47]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes multiple sectors including chemicals, agriculture, energy, metals, and finance, presenting price trends, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector. It also covers macro - economic news that may impact the markets [4][7][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals and Energy - **Price Changes**: On March 30, 2026, in the chemical sector, plastic rose 1.376%, polypropylene PP rose 1.933%, and methanol rose 2.579%, while PTA fell 0.640%. In the energy sector, crude oil rose 2.632% and fuel oil rose 2.285% [4] - **Analysis of Specific Products**: - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term due to current supply pressure, but international market changes may support far - month contracts [11] - **Corn**: Corn prices are under pressure from increased supply, and long positions need to watch risk. Support is around 2350 - 2360 yuan/ton [11] - **Peanut**: Peanut prices are in high - level oscillation. Pay attention to the performance at the key support of 8000 yuan [11] - **Pig**: The pig market has an oversupply situation, with spot prices falling and the futures market seeking new support [13] - **Egg**: Egg futures are expected to be short - term bullish, but the upside is limited [13] - **Jujube**: The jujube market is in a bottom - oscillation pattern, and intraday range trading is recommended [13] - **Cotton**: Cotton prices can consider long positions after a pull - back, but beware of demand disappointment or macro risks [13] - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is supported by device maintenance and export, but beware of near - month contract correction risks [13] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, and the overall trend is expected to be strong [14] - **Double - offset Paper**: The double - offset paper market has a loose supply - demand situation, and the price is weak after breaking through the key level [14] - **Urea**: The urea market is expected to maintain stable prices in the short term, and attention should be paid to policies and macro - impacts [14] 3.2 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are oscillating at high levels due to geopolitical tensions and economic data. Pay attention to risks [14] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper and Aluminum**: Copper and aluminum prices are affected by the Middle - East situation and are in a downward adjustment. Wait for prices to stabilize [15] - **Alumina**: The domestic alumina supply is large, but there are concerns about bauxite supply. Adopt a long - on - dips strategy and beware of macro risks [15] - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate and adjust slightly in the short term due to cost and demand factors [15] - **Ferroalloys**: Ferroalloys are affected by cost increases, with a short - term callback - long strategy recommended and avoid high - level chasing [15][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices have broken through resistance, but beware of high - level chasing risks [17] 3.3 Option Finance - **Stock Index and Options**: A - share market shows mixed trends. For investors, trend investors can focus on inter - variety arbitrage, and volatility investors can trade based on price movements. The market is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation, and control positions during the rebound [19][21]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 锰硅周报3.23-3.27 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 本周观点： 硅锰市场震荡运行，成本端矿价持续上涨，化工焦本周上涨一轮50元/吨，生产端，内蒙古本周个别工厂存在检修情 况，察右前旗一台炉子今日点火，暂未出铁，北方内蒙宁夏部分工厂表示四月开始要减产30%，具体减产需观望厂家 实际动作，南方个别工厂经过高位套保，近期有开炉计划，但据调研结果生产成本为6200-6300，目前开工厂家依然 较少，预计合金产量小幅上涨。钢厂端，河钢最新招标5100吨，询盘6300元/吨，目前定价在博弈当中，重点观望合 金厂减产情况以及钢招进展，预计硅锰短期成本坚挺，价格存在支撑。 下周行情预测： 预计短期内市场短期仍坚挺为主。 2 0元/吨 2000元/吨 4000元/吨 6000元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The concern about the escalation of the Middle - East situation still exists, causing gold and silver prices to rise and then fall. The expectation of peace talks between the US and Iran has significantly improved the sentiment, but there is still a possibility of the Middle - East situation escalating, so the gold price will fluctuate. The cease - fire negotiation between the US and Iran has reached a deadlock, and the risk appetite has decreased, leading to a decline in the silver price. The uncertainty of the US - Iran peace - talk expectation is high, but the sentiment has eased, and the silver price will also fluctuate [4][5]. - The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict, high oil prices, and the rising expectation of interest - rate hikes have led to the gold price continuing to give back its gains in recent years. With the upcoming mid - term elections, there is still support from the macro - aspect [10][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: The concern about the escalation of the Middle - East situation still exists, and the gold price rose and then fell. US and European stock markets closed down. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.81 basis points to 4.428%. The US dollar index rose 0.26% to 100.19. The COMEX gold futures rose 2.59% to $4489.70 per ounce. The basis was - 3.6, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. The gold futures warehouse receipts decreased by 99 kilograms to 106,644 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the long position of the main force decreased [4]. - **Silver**: The concern about the escalation of the Middle - East situation still exists, and the silver price rose and then fell. US and European stock markets closed down. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.81 basis points to 4.428%. The US dollar index rose 0.26% to 100.19. The COMEX silver futures rose 2.70% to $69.77 per ounce. The basis was - 14, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,500 kilograms to 371,799 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the long position of the main force decreased [5][6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The expectation of peace talks between the US and Iran has significantly improved the sentiment, but the Middle - East situation may still escalate, and the gold price will fluctuate. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to 1.6 yuan per gram [4]. - **Silver**: The cease - fire negotiation between the US and Iran has reached a deadlock, and the risk appetite has decreased, leading to a decline in the silver price. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded to about 2,000 yuan per kilogram. The uncertainty of the US - Iran peace - talk expectation is high, but the sentiment has eased, and the silver price will fluctuate [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - G7 meeting to discuss the release of strategic oil reserves (time to be determined); - The Bank of Japan to release the summary of opinions of the deliberation members at the March monetary policy meeting at 07:50; - Switzerland's March KOF economic leading indicator at 15:00; - UK's February central bank mortgage approvals at 16:30; - Eurozone's March economic sentiment index and the final value of the March consumer confidence index at 17:00; - Germany's March CPI preliminary value at 20:00; - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech and the US March Dallas Fed business activity index at 22:30; - FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams to give a speech at 04:00 the next day [16]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict, high oil prices, and the rising expectation of interest - rate hikes have led to the gold price continuing to give back its gains in recent years. With the upcoming mid - term elections, there is still support from the macro - aspect [10]. - **Silver**: The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict, high oil prices, and the rising expectation of interest - rate hikes have led to the gold price (should be silver price here) continuing to give back its gains in recent years. With the upcoming mid - term elections, there is still support from the macro - aspect. The photovoltaic and technology sectors support the silver price, and the low spot inventory and hot supply - shortage game are also positive factors [13][15]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 Shanghai gold holders decreased by 1,974 to 147,144, a decrease of 1.32%. The short position increased by 2,307 to 44,494, an increase of 5.47%. The net position decreased by 4,281 to 102,650, a decrease of 4.00% [41]. - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 Shanghai silver holders increased by 238 to 240,033, an increase of 0.10%. The short position increased by 1,561 to 214,706, an increase of 0.73%. The net position decreased by 1,323 to 25,327, a decrease of 4.96% [44]. - **ETF**: The SPDR gold ETF position remained flat, and the silver ETF position decreased slightly [46][48]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: COMEX gold warehouse receipts continued to decrease but remained at a high level, and Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease [50][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for zinc is "Bullish" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second quarter, the zinc market may face a series of high - impact and low - predictability events, with macro - expectations' sharp swings likely to cause price overshoots frequently. Macro risks have reached an absolute high in the past five years. Risk exposure management should be prioritized, and position management and hedging operations are more important than accurately predicting the equilibrium point [1][18][22] - Overseas mining companies have significantly revised down their production guidance. With geopolitical disturbances and intensified resource competition, the expected supply gap overseas may widen. In China, the increase in zinc concentrate production is mostly expected in the second half of the year, and imports from major sources are temporarily blocked. The smelting - mining balance may tighten in the second quarter, and domestic TC is under pressure, with smelter production cut pressure becoming clearer later [1][138] - In the second quarter, domestic smelters may maintain high operating rates, while the probability of overseas smelter production cuts is still tied to geopolitics. High - risk smelters are mainly in Europe, Japan, and South Korea, and disturbances are more likely to occur later. There is a differentiation and structural shift in domestic and overseas demand. Overseas demand is generally weak, while domestic demand can be viewed optimistically. The inflection point of global visible zinc ingot inventory may have arrived, but there may be no shortage of zinc ingots at home and abroad in the second quarter [2][139] - In the second quarter, zinc prices face multiple and unpredictable continuous macro risks, and there is a risk of a sharp decline due to systematic risks in extreme cases. However, the long - term supply of zinc ore is tightening, TC is under pressure, and demand shows no sign of weakening. If there is a sharp decline, it is likely to be a mispricing. A long - term buy - on - dips strategy is recommended, and some cash should be reserved for risk hedging. In terms of arbitrage, the expectation of loose domestic and tight overseas supply may reverse, and long - term domestic - overseas positive arbitrage may not run smoothly. Zinc prices may be low in the front and high in the back, with the main operating range of [22,500, 24,500] [3][139] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The report was bullish on zinc prices in 2026 in the annual report, expecting higher volatility and an initially weak domestic and strong overseas fundamental situation. In the first quarter, zinc prices first rose and then fell, and then fluctuated around 23,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton, which was basically in line with expectations. In January, zinc prices reached a new high in nearly four years, driven by geopolitical risks and optimistic expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts. However, in late January, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman reversed the expectations of monetary policy easing, and zinc prices fell with the market. In February, zinc prices entered an adjustment period. In March, after the US - Iran conflict, macro factors dominated price fluctuations, and zinc prices were under pressure [13] 3.2 When Macro Uncertainty Becomes Certainty, Risk Control May Be the Top Priority - In the second quarter, zinc trading may be more focused on macro factors. Geopolitical disturbances are intensifying, and the probability of black - swan events is increasing. Trump's policy style is complex and changeable, and events such as geopolitical situations, tariff expectations, and the US election are highly uncertain. The US - Iran conflict is difficult to ease in the short term, and energy prices are likely to remain high. The US mid - term elections are approaching, and Trump's poll support rate has declined. The US debt credit crisis is eroding the safe - asset attribute of global US - dollar assets, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield is approaching a critical point. The S&P 500 VIX is rising, and the gold - platinum ratio indicates a high - risk window for the US stock market from the second quarter to the end of 2026. Macro risks have reached an absolute high in the past five years, and price fluctuations may be more affected by macro - expectations. Risk exposure management should be prioritized [18][19][22] 3.3 Supply Side 3.3.1 Mine End: The Expected Gap of Overseas Zinc Mines May Further Widen, and TC Will Continue to Run Under Pressure - Overseas, in Q4 2025, zinc concentrate production decreased quarter - on - quarter, and the 2026 production guidance was significantly lowered. Geopolitical disturbances have changed the overseas zinc mine expectation from loose to tight. In 2025, the global zinc concentrate production was 12.57 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 652,000 tons (YoY + 5.5%). In Q4 2025, the overseas sample zinc concentrate production was 1.288 million metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 44,000 metal tons (YoY + 3.6%) and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 15,000 metal tons (QoQ - 1.2%). In 2026, the sample enterprises' production guidance decreased by 11% year - on - year. In the first quarter, overseas zinc mine production expectations changed greatly due to geopolitical disturbances, production guidance adjustments, and weather effects. In the long - term, overseas zinc mine supply may further decline. Domestic zinc concentrate production in January - February 2026 was 519,000 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 28,000 metal tons (YoY + 5.6%), and most of the domestic zinc mine increment is expected in the second half of the year. In January - February, domestic zinc concentrate imports increased by 17.5% year - on - year, but the import window closed again. The inflow of imported zinc ore is restricted, and the TC of imported and domestic zinc ore is likely to be under pressure in the second quarter [26][31][33] 3.3.2 Overseas Smelting: The Energy Price Center Rises, and Attention Should Be Paid to the Possibility of Production Cuts by Smelters in Japan, South Korea, and Europe - In January 2026, the global refined zinc production was 1.156 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19,000 tons (YoY + 1.68%). The 2026 Benchmark was set at $85/ton, slightly higher than in 2025, indicating that the shortage of overseas zinc mines has not improved significantly. Due to the damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East, natural gas prices have risen significantly, and smelters in Europe, Japan, and South Korea may face production cut risks. In Europe, although the current electricity price has not reached the extreme level in 2022, and the overall energy cost pressure of zinc smelters is relatively controllable in the short term, Japanese and South Korean smelters face greater cost pressure. In the second half of the year, attention should be paid to the impact of El Niño on power supply. The affected zinc smelters may reduce production by 50,000 - 400,000 tons [41][46][50] 3.3.3 Domestic Smelting: Smelting Profits May Be Under Pressure, but High Operating Rates of Smelters Are Difficult to Reduce - In January - February 2026, domestic smelter production was 1.065 million tons (YoY + 6.2%), and after the Spring Festival, smelters resumed production on a large scale. The domestic TC has been fluctuating, and after the US - Iran conflict in March, the imported TC showed a marginal decline. By - product prices are differentiated, and zinc smelting profits are oscillating at a high level. Domestic zinc smelters' raw material inventory is at a relatively high level, but some smelters highly dependent on imported ore still face supply pressure. If the geopolitical situation deepens, the TC of imported ore may continue to decline, and smelting profits may be under pressure. The discussion on smelter production cuts may be more likely to occur in the second half of the year. In January - February, domestic refined zinc imports decreased by 61% year - on - year, and the import window has been closed. It is expected that domestic refined zinc imports will remain at a low level in 2026 [54][62][67] 3.4 Demand Side 3.4.1 The Initial Downstream Performance Is Weak, and Exports Are the Main Support - In January - February, domestic refined zinc demand was slightly weaker than the same period last year. In March, the downstream showed marginal improvement, and the supporting factors were the tower field and galvanized exports. The domestic galvanized plate market has weak domestic demand and strong exports. The domestic inventory of galvanized coils accumulated to a relatively high level during the Spring Festival, and the inventory clearance was slow. However, the export performance was excellent, and the orders from Japan, South Korea, and Europe increased. In the long - term, anti - dumping and export policies may have a certain suppressing effect. The die - casting zinc alloy sector is generally weak, with low domestic demand and limited export growth. The zinc oxide demand shows a structural differentiation, with poor performance in traditional application fields. The downstream raw material and finished product inventories are at a low level, and the downstream has a certain elasticity to buy on price increases [68][70][76] 3.4.2 The Efficiency of Fund Allocation Improves, and the Physical Workload Is Expected to Recover in the Second Quarter - In January - February, fixed - asset investment started to recover, and the speed of fund allocation increased. The government's fiscal policy is more active, and the deficit rate in 2026 is 4%. As of March 20, local bond issuance exceeded the plan by 5.5%. The issuance progress of new special bonds is slightly ahead of last year. The new special bonds in January were mainly invested in traditional infrastructure fields, and the proportion of non - new projects increased. The actual operation shows that the investment growth rate of the three major general infrastructure fields is stable, and the new contract amount of key enterprises is expected to increase. The infrastructure physical workload is generally low, and the power sector is expected to become an important support in the future. The real estate sector still lags behind the seasonality, and the drag on zinc consumption may be marginally alleviated, but the rebound space is limited [79][80][90] 3.4.3 Durable Consumer Goods Demand Is Weak at Home and Strong Abroad, and Consumption Is Expected to Improve in the Second Quarter - In the first quarter, durable consumer goods demand was generally weak, with a pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas demand. In January - February, the production and sales of passenger cars decreased year - on - year, mainly due to policy and market factors. However, automobile exports increased significantly, driven by the advantages of the domestic automobile industry chain. In the second quarter, domestic automobile demand may recover marginally, and exports are expected to remain strong. The domestic home appliance market showed a weak recovery in domestic demand and an unexpected rebound in exports. In the second quarter, domestic home appliance demand is expected to further improve, and exports may maintain stable growth [100][105][110] 3.4.4 Energy Price Increases Raise Inflation Concerns, and Some Overseas Demand May Be Converted into Domestic Exports - In January, overseas refined zinc consumption increased year - on - year, with good performance in India, Europe, and the United States. The export of zinc primary processed products showed different trends in the first two months, with zinc alloy and zinc oxide exports increasing. The export demand may change over time and is highly related to geopolitical evolution. In the short term, orders from Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia are concentrated in China, but in the medium - term, exports to the Middle East may be affected. In the long - term, some overseas demand may be converted into domestic exports [114][121][123] 3.5 Global Zinc Ingot Visible Inventory May Enter the Decline Stage - From the fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year, zinc ingot inventories at home and abroad accumulated successively, and the global visible zinc ingot inventory increased significantly, suppressing zinc prices. Overseas, the LME zinc inventory increased twice, and then gradually decreased due to consumption. In China, zinc ingot inventory accumulated during the Spring Festival due to production release and slow consumption recovery. In the second quarter, domestic zinc consumption and exports may increase, and the inventory inflection point may have appeared, but the inventory clearance speed may be relatively stable [130][137] 3.6 Summary and Outlook - Macro aspect: In the second quarter, macro risks are at an absolute high in the past five years, and risk exposure management should be prioritized. - Smelting - mining balance: Overseas supply expectations may further deteriorate, and domestic zinc concentrate increment is mostly in the second half of the year. The smelting - mining balance may tighten in the second quarter, and domestic TC is under pressure. - Zinc ingot balance: Domestic smelters may maintain high operating rates, and overseas smelter production cuts are related to geopolitics. Domestic demand can be viewed optimistically, while overseas demand is weak. The global visible inventory inflection point may have arrived, and there may be no shortage of zinc ingots at home and abroad in the second quarter. - Trading aspect: In the second quarter, zinc prices may face a sharp decline due to systematic risks, but in the long - term, zinc is still valuable. A long - term buy - on - dips strategy is recommended, and cash should be reserved for risk hedging. Zinc prices may be low in the front and high in the back, with the main operating range of [22,500, 24,500]. - Strategy aspect: For single - side trading, a long - term buy - on - dips strategy is recommended, and short - term risks should be avoided. For arbitrage, a positive inter - period arbitrage strategy can be adopted, and domestic - overseas positive arbitrage should be observed for the time being [138][139][141]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - On March 27, the prices of platinum and palladium opened low and moved high but maintained a volatile trend due to the lack of significant positive drivers. PT2606 closed down 0.02% to 493.05 yuan/gram, and PD2606 closed down 0.01% to 358.20 yuan/gram. Geopolitical risks may continue to escalate, and the high oil price may support the real - interest rate at a high level, while the weakening of the US stock market and the decline of the US bond yield support the prices. The decline of the 1 - month palladium lease rate indicates a short - term relief of the palladium shortage, which may limit its upward drive. It is expected that platinum and palladium will probably maintain a range - bound trend in the short term. After the Middle - East geopolitical situation becomes relatively clear, investors can consider buying platinum unilaterally at low prices or continue to hold the [long platinum, short palladium] strategy [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Prices (yuan/gram) - Platinum futures主力收盘价 rose 1.16% to 493.05 from 487.4; spot platinum (99.95%) fell 2.26% to 475 from 486; platinum basis (spot - futures) increased 1189.29% to - 18.05 from - 1.4. - Lithium futures主力收盘价 rose 1.37% to 358.2 from 353.35; spot lithium (99.95%) fell 1.13% to 348.5 from 352.5; lithium basis (spot - futures) increased 1041.18% to - 9.7 from - 0.85 [4]. International Prices (15:00, dollars/ounce) - London spot platinum rose 0.03% to 1892.8 from 1892.3; London spot palladium fell 0.06% to 1401.427 from 1402.207. - NYMEX platinum rose 0.98% to 1894.5 from 1876.1; NYMEX palladium rose 0.29% to 1406.5 from 1402.5 [4]. Internal - External 15:00 Spread (yuan/gram) - The dollar/yuan mid - price rose 0.12% to 6.9141 from 6.9056. - The spread of domestic platinum - London platinum increased 39.04% to 17.59 from 12.65; the spread of domestic platinum - NYMEX platinum increased 2.68% to 17.17 from 16.72 [4]. Ratios - The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum to lithium changed - 0.0029 to 1.3794 from 1.3765; the ratio of London spot platinum to lithium changed 0.0011 to 1.3495 from 1.3506 [5]. Inventory (Troy Ounces) - NYMEX platinum inventory fell 0.81% to 554241 from 558768; NYMEX palladium inventory remained unchanged at 248374 [5]. Positions - NYMEX total platinum position fell 8.65% to 61473 from 67292; NYMEX non - commercial net long position of platinum fell 4.14% to 16198 from 16898. - NYMEX total palladium position rose 3.13% to 15556 from 15069; NYMEX non - commercial net long position of palladium increased 571.35% to - 185 from - 1242 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradiction in the pig market last week was the structural mismatch between deep losses and the slow pace of capacity reduction, as well as the rhythm game between strong policy intervention and market - based clearance. The industry is facing double pressure from oversupply and weak demand [2]. - From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the supply side is facing a "supply peak", while the demand side is extremely weak. Despite continuous losses for over five months, the reduction of breeding sow inventory is slow, and there is a dangerous time - lag between losses and capacity reduction [2]. - Different cost structures among breeding entities lead to a structural imbalance in the capacity reduction process. Policy intervention has a significant time - lag, and the divergence between feed costs and pig prices further erodes breeding profits [3]. - In the short - term, factors such as weak post - festival pork demand, the post - festival window for frozen pork storage, the narrowing of the standard - fat price difference, and the potential entry of secondary fattening when standard pig prices fall are the trading logics. In the long - term, policy - led reduction of breeding sow capacity and the increase in piglet prices due to early replenishment by farmers are the trading logics [5][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: The industry is experiencing double pressure from supply surplus and weak demand. The supply side has a high number of piglet births and high production efficiency, resulting in a large number of pig sales. The demand side is in the post - festival off - season, and secondary fattening and frozen meat storage are ineffective. The reduction of breeding sow inventory is slow [2]. - **Breeding entity behavior**: The cost difference among breeding entities leads to a structural imbalance in capacity reduction. Large - scale enterprises are reluctant to reduce production, while some small - scale farmers delay capacity clearance through secondary fattening [3]. - **Policy intervention**: Policy intervention has a time - lag, and the divergence between feed costs and pig prices further squeezes breeding profits [3]. 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestions - **Unilateral strategy**: For the main contract LH2605 of live pigs, a sell - call option (LH2605 - C - 12000) can be selected [12]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Suggestions - **Price range prediction**: The price range of the main contract is predicted to be between 11,000 - 13,500, with a current volatility of 15.70% and a historical percentile of 44.89% over three years [14]. - **Risk management strategy**: The trend is expected to continue to bottom out, with the main contract oscillating between 9,500 - 11,000. The current basis is neutral, and it is recommended to wait and see. For the spread strategy, it is advisable to go long on the 05 contract and short on the 07 contract. Different hedging strategies are provided for inventory management and procurement management [14][15]. 3.2 Market Information 3.2.1 This Week's Main Information - **Positive information**: The government held meetings with pig - breeding enterprises, signaling a reduction in the normal inventory of breeding sows from 39 million to 36.5 million (a 7.8% decrease). It also required enterprises to adjust production capacity, and the central government initiated the purchase and storage of frozen pork [16]. - **Negative information**: The demand side is weak, and the prices of feed raw materials such as soybean meal and corn are rising. In March, the pig sales plan of sample enterprises increased by 17.63% month - on - month, and the inventory of breeding sows increased for two consecutive months [17]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Main Information Pay attention to the inventory of breeding sows, the average weight of pig sales, and the pig - grain ratio [17]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation The main 05 contract of live pigs opened at 10,220 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and closed at 9,965 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 255 points or 2.50%. The position decreased by 1,083 lots to 203,000 lots, indicating that the market is in a continuous bottom - seeking stage [18]. 3.3.2 Basis and Spread Structure Analysis - **Spread structure**: The live pig spread structure is in a Contango structure, mainly due to weak demand, falling spot prices, and the need for long - term inventory reduction. The ability of the peak season to boost demand remains to be seen [20]. - **Basis structure**: Due to continuous losses in the industry, farmers are accelerating sales to ease cash - flow pressure, increasing market supply. The near - month basis rebounds and then falls [23]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - As pig prices fall, pig - breeding profits decline, and self - breeding and self - raising profits are in the red. Piglet prices fall due to weakening replenishment sentiment, and the gross profit of piglet sales decreases. The standard - fat price difference is still negative, and secondary fattening farmers are selling for profit. Slaughtering enterprises are in a continuous loss stage [25]. 3.5 This Week's Supply - Demand Situation 3.5.1 Supply - Side Situation - **Breeding sows**: The inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly, but overall remained stable. The PSY level decreased by 0.2 month - on - month, and the average price of culled sows decreased [31]. - **Pigs**: The sales volume of large - scale enterprises remained high, and the inventory was at a three - year high. The average weight of pig sales remained stable [33]. - **Piglets**: Piglet prices are relatively low compared to last year, showing a seasonal upward trend. This week, the gross profit of piglets recovered and is close to the break - even point [35]. - **Secondary fattening**: The standard - fat price difference strengthened this week, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens decreased [38]. - **Feed**: The prices of corn and soybean meal fluctuated, and the feed price remained stable this week [40]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side Situation - **Slaughtering**: The slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises is at a multi - year high, the gross profit of pig slaughtering is weakening, and cold - storage inventory is increasing. Due to poor white - strip sales, slaughtering enterprises are forced to store meat. This week, slaughtering profits decreased month - on - month, and the average weight after slaughter did not change significantly [44]. - **Terminal consumption**: Terminal consumption remains weak. The fresh - sales rate of slaughtering enterprises is at a five - year low, and the white - hair price difference is the worst in the same period [46]. 3.5.3 Import - Export Situation - **Import**: The import volume is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years [48]. - **Export**: The export volume is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years [52]. 3.5.4 Cost - Profit Situation - Pig - breeding profits are in the red, and the pig - grain ratio is fluctuating. The prices of corn and soybean meal are oscillating, and the cost of secondary fattening is relatively stable [58][59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated and trended stronger, mainly influenced by Indonesian policies and some positive news on the cost side. The supply is sufficient with increased production scheduling in March and rising domestic inventories. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices are firm, the Indonesian RKAB policy continues to have an impact, and Indonesia's bargaining power for nickel ore is rising. Ferronickel prices are weakly stable with a firm cost line. Stainless steel inventories have slightly increased, and demand is weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles meet expectations, with a significant month - on - month decline in the off - season [6]. - The global nickel market is expected to maintain a supply surplus pattern dominated by low - cost production capacity in Indonesia. Traditional demand such as stainless steel has weak growth, but the high - nickel trend in the new energy field will provide key structural support. The industry will accelerate the elimination of high - cost production capacity in the context of持续 low prices, and the bottom of nickel prices will be anchored to the cost line of Indonesian nickel pig iron [24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Viewpoints**: This week, nickel prices fluctuated and trended stronger, influenced by Indonesian policies and cost - side factors. Supply is sufficient, with increased production scheduling and rising inventories. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices are firm, ferronickel prices are weakly stable, stainless steel inventories have increased, and new energy vehicle production and sales are in the off - season [6]. - **Operation Strategies**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [7][8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The price of red earth nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% decreased from $78 to $77, a decline of 1.28%; the price of red earth nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% decreased from $73 to $72, a decline of 1.37%. Battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate prices remained unchanged. Low - nickel ferronickel (Shandong) and high - nickel ferronickel (Shandong) prices remained unchanged [11]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: Shanghai electrolytic nickel increased from 140,690 yuan to 141,870 yuan, an increase of 0.84%; Shanghai Russian nickel increased from 134,040 yuan to 136,320 yuan, an increase of 1.70%; Jinchuan's ex - factory price increased from 140,600 yuan to 141,400 yuan, an increase of 0.57% [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel remained unchanged at 15,062.5 yuan [12]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - **Price and Freight**: Nickel ore prices decreased by $1 per wet ton this week, and ocean freight decreased by $2 per wet ton compared to last week [15][16]. - **Inventory**: On March 26, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 7.4184 million wet tons, a decrease of 508,200 wet tons or 6.41% from the previous period. Philippine nickel ore inventory was 7.1684 million wet tons, a decrease of 458,200 wet tons or 6%; other countries' nickel ore inventory was 250,000 wet tons, a decrease of 50,000 wet tons or 16.67% [16]. - **Import**: In February 2026, nickel ore imports were 1.2239 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 160,300 tons or 11.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 77,800 tons or 6.79%. From January to February 2026, the total nickel ore imports were 2.6081 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.73% [16]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - **Price and Spot**: This week, nickel prices fluctuated and strengthened, mainly affected by Indonesian policies and cost factors. Domestic inventories are high, supply is sufficient, downstream demand is for essential purchases, and the premium has decreased [23]. - **Production**: In February 2026, China's refined nickel production was 32,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.65%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel production was 67,825 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.65%. In March 2026, the estimated refined nickel production was 39,430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.95% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54% [30]. - **Import and Export**: In February 2026, China's refined nickel imports were 16,930.903 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,135 tons or 23.27%, and a year - on - year increase of 9,333 tons or 122.85%. The net import of refined nickel was 14,664.072 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 62.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 172.99%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel imports were 38,997.234 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5,821 tons or 17.54%. In February 2026, China's refined nickel exports were 2,266.831 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,547 tons or 40.56%, and a year - on - year decrease of 17,934 tons or 88.78% [34]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1,938 tons to 281,574 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 818 tons to 64,479 tons. Social inventory data shows that Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts increased by 379 tons, spot inventory increased by 1,511 tons to 26,238 tons, bonded area inventory decreased by 200 tons to 2,770 tons, and the total inventory increased by 1,690 tons to 86,077 tons [39]. 3.2.4 Ferronickel Market Conditions - **Price**: According to Mysteel data, low - nickel ferronickel prices remained unchanged at 3,500 yuan/ton, and high - nickel ferronickel prices remained unchanged at 1,100 yuan/nickel point. According to SMM data, high - nickel ferronickel prices decreased by 0.5 yuan/nickel to 1,083.5 yuan/nickel, and low - nickel ferronickel prices decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 3,650 yuan/ton [44][45]. - **Production**: In February 2026, China's nickel pig iron actual production was 21,100 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. Medium - and high - nickel pig iron production was 16,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.59%; low - nickel pig iron production was 4,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67%. From January to February 2026, China's total nickel pig iron production was 42,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.48%, of which the nickel metal production of medium - and high - nickel pig iron was 31,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.73% [47]. - **Import**: In February 2026, China's ferronickel imports were 831,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 78,200 tons or 8.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 77,300 tons or 8.51%. From January to February 2026, China's total ferronickel imports were 1.7415 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 96,500 tons or 5.25% [50]. - **Inventory**: In February, the tradable ferronickel inventory was 178,300 physical tons, equivalent to 17,000 tons of nickel. The tradable medium - and high - nickel ferronickel was 152,300 tons, equivalent to 16,900 tons of nickel [53]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - **Price**: The price of 304 stainless steel (average price of four locations) remained unchanged from last week [58][59]. - **Production**: In February, stainless steel crude steel production was 2.71 million tons, including 818,300 tons of 200 - series, 572,300 tons of 400 - series, and 1.3194 million tons of 300 - series, a month - on - month decrease of 29% [63]. - **Import and Export**: The latest data shows that stainless steel imports were 109,000 tons and exports were 260,000 tons [66]. - **Inventory**: On March 27, the inventory in Wuxi was 601,200 tons, in Foshan was 390,900 tons, and the national inventory was 1.1575 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,100 tons. The inventory of 300 - series was 696,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons [69]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - **Vehicle Production and Sales**: In February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694,000 and 765,000 respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2%. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.735 million and 1.71 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8% and 6.9%. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 41.2% of total vehicle sales [74]. - **Power Battery**: In February, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries was 141.6 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 15.7% and a year - on - year increase of 41.3%. From January to February, the cumulative production of power and energy - storage batteries was 309.7 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 48.8%. In February, the domestic power battery loading volume was 26.3 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 37.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%. From January to February, the cumulative domestic power battery loading volume was 68.3 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.2% [77]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price rebounded, fluctuated, and strengthened, returning to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The main contract positions increased to some extent, and the bullish force was relatively strong. The MACD indicator showed a golden cross and started to point upwards, and the KDJ slowly entered the overbought area. The previous bottom was supported again, and after the rebound, the pressure of the 20 - day moving average was evident. It may continue to fluctuate in the future [80]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary - **Nickel Ore**: Neutral to bullish. The RKAB policy continues to have an impact, there is strong demand support in Indonesia, and mine quotes are firm [83]. - **Ferronickel**: Neutral. Ferronickel prices are weakly stable, and cost support is strong [83]. - **Refined Nickel**: Neutral to bearish. Supply is sufficient, and inventories are at a high level [83]. - **Stainless Steel**: Neutral. Inventories have increased, and consumption is weak [83]. - **New Energy**: Neutral. It is the off - season for consumption, and production has decreased significantly month - on - month [83].