Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical game deadline between Russia and Ukraine has been advanced, and the macro - situation has positive expectations. The short - term market has upward support, and attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - The short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the decline in safe - haven demand, and focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - For various commodities, different trends and trading strategies are presented based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and inventory changes. For example, some commodities are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to fluctuate [4][5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight crude oil futures rose sharply. The geopolitical game deadline has been advanced, and the short - term market has upward support. Attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Macro and geopolitical game news boost oil prices, but the cracking spread is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak, and the cracking spread is likely to be volatile and weak [22]. - **Asphalt**: The domestic production volume in August decreased compared with July. Demand recovery was delayed, and the inventory destocking rhythm slowed down. The price follows the direction of crude oil, but the upward space is limited [23]. - **Urea**: The futures main contract is running at a low level. Domestic downstream demand is weak, exports are advancing, and short - term prices are likely to run within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and the port is unexpectedly destocked. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate within a range [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Night - time oil prices rose sharply, which is expected to boost the cost of pure benzene. Supply and demand decreased in the week, and the port slightly accumulated inventory. Seasonal supply - demand improvement is expected in the third quarter, and it is recommended to conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC showed strength at night. Supply decreased, domestic demand was weak, and foreign demand was expected to improve. Caustic soda showed a volatile trend, with long - term supply pressure and high - level pressure on prices [27]. - **PX & PTA**: Night - time prices rebounded slightly. The fundamentals of PX had limited driving force, and PTA continued to accumulate inventory. The medium - term processing margin has a repair drive, but it needs to wait for downstream demand to recover [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is shifting, short - term oil prices are strong, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory fluctuates at a low level. Attention should be paid to external variables [29]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Prices rebounded following raw materials. Short - fiber is considered for long - allocation in the medium - term, while bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [30]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals fluctuated. Safe - haven demand declined, and short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated and closed up. The market focuses on the implementation of US tariff agreements and Fed meetings. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average, and short positions are held against integer levels [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum had limited fluctuations. Demand declined in the off - season, inventory increased, and it is mainly in short - term shock adjustment with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has tight supply, and the price is under short - term pressure but has certain resilience in the medium - term. Consider long AD and short AL when the price difference expands [6]. - **Alumina**: The price has risen sharply, the industry profit has recovered, and the inventory is in a surplus state. Sell short when the price approaches the recent high of 3,500 yuan [7]. - **Zinc**: The black price rebounded, and the zinc price adjustment rhythm was not smooth. Supply increased and demand was weak, and the inventory continued to rise. In the medium - term, the idea of short - allocation on rebounds is maintained, and wait for clear short signals [8]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak, the rebound rhythm is slow, and there is support at 16,800 yuan/ton. You can try long positions lightly and hold them against this price [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated. The speculation of the "anti - involution" theme cooled down, and nickel may return to fundamentals. Wait patiently for short opportunities [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fluctuated. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average and 265,000 yuan. In the long - term, high - level supply expectations will suppress prices. Hold short positions above 270,000 yuan [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It fluctuated, and the trading was active. The market rumors of mine shutdowns were refuted. The inventory increased, and the mid - stream output decreased slightly. Try long positions lightly in the short - term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures rose sharply. The terminal is waiting and watching, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. After the previous sharp rise, the market enters a wide - range shock. Choose low - long opportunities and control positions [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures rose slightly. The fundamentals are weak, but the price is at a historical low. Be cautious about short - selling unilaterally and control risks [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures rose. Supply increased globally but decreased in domestic arrivals. The inventory pressure is not large, and the demand is weak and stable. The price is expected to be volatile [16]. - **Coke**: The price rose significantly during the day. The fourth round of price increases was proposed, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downward space is relatively limited [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rose significantly during the day, and the far - month contract hit the daily limit. The inventory decreased in the production end, and the downward space is relatively limited [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price followed the rise. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation of manganese ore has improved, and there is an upward driving force in the short - term [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price followed the rise. The demand is acceptable, and the price may have an upward driving force in the short - term [20]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are ongoing, and the US soybean growing conditions are good. The price is treated as volatile for now [34]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US market shows oil - strong and meal - weak. Domestic soybean oil is strong, and the EU policy is positive for palm oil. Maintain the idea of long - allocation on dips [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed rose overnight. The rapeseed meal price stabilized slightly, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased slowly. Take a short - term neutral attitude towards rapeseed products [36]. - **Domestic Soybean**: After a sharp reduction in positions and a callback, the price stabilized. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions [37]. - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak and volatile at the bottom [38]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price continued to fall, and the futures are likely to have peaked. Suggest hedging on rallies [39]. - **Eggs**: The futures price fluctuated little. The spot price was stable in most areas. The 09 contract focuses on the seasonal rebound of the spot price, and long positions are more inclined to far - month contracts [40]. - **Cotton**: US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased, and Brazil's harvest progress was slow. Zheng cotton maintained a high - level shock. Temporarily wait and see [41]. - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure, and the uncertainty of China's sugar production in the 25/26 season has increased. The short - term sugar price is expected to be volatile [42]. - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and the market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Temporarily wait and see [43]. - **Timber**: The demand is good during the off - season, and the inventory pressure is small. The futures price is expected to continue to rise [44]. - **Pulp**: The price fell slightly. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the demand is weak, and the price may return to low - level volatility. Temporarily wait and see [45]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The market freight rate inflection point is becoming clear, and the price is expected to decline further. The extension of tariff exemptions may boost market sentiment [21]. - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose steadily in the afternoon, and the futures index rose. The risk preference of the global market is oscillating strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The global trade sentiment has improved, and the bond market may have increased volatility in the short - term. The probability of a steeper yield curve increases [47].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ★☆★ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides operation suggestions such as temporary observation or intraday trading based on their respective market conditions [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton dropped significantly, funds shifted to far - month contracts, and the 9 - 1 spread continued to decline. Spinning mills' point - price improved. As of July 15, cotton commercial inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons compared to June. In June 2025, cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a new low in nearly 20 years. From January to June 2025, cumulative imports were 460,000 tons, a 74.3% year - on - year decrease. The cotton yarn market had average trading, with downstream rigid - demand procurement. Macroscopically, attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. Operationally, it's advisable to wait and see or conduct intraday trading [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production progress in the main producing areas was slow this year, with a significant year - on - year decline in sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production. In July, rainfall in the main producing areas decreased. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In July, rainfall in Guangxi was better than usual, but the European Meteorological Center's medium - term forecast predicted a possible decrease in later rainfall, increasing the uncertainty of Guangxi's sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season. Overall, the US sugar trend is downward, and Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. It's expected that sugar prices will remain volatile in the short term, and operationally, it's advisable to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price corrected. For early - maturing apples, bagged Qinyang apples were sporadically on the market with high opening prices. Affected by high - temperature weather, early - maturing apples had poor coloration and some quality problems. As of July 24, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 648,100 tons, a 44.57% year - on - year decrease. Last week, the national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 86,000 tons, a 20.66% year - on - year decline. The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. In the western producing areas, although affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period, the low - temperature impact on production was small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. There are still differences in production estimates. Operationally, it's advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU fluctuated weakly, NR and BR continued to decline, and the rubber market sentiment was weak. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable with a slight decline, the synthetic rubber spot price decreased, the overseas butadiene port price was stable, and the Thai raw material market price generally declined. Globally, natural rubber supply is gradually entering the high - yield period, and there is more heavy rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate continued to rise, and some plants had restart or load - reduction plans. In August, several petrochemical plants plan to conduct centralized maintenance, and the upstream butadiene plant operating rate increased. The domestic all - steel tire operating rate decreased slightly, the semi - steel tire operating rate declined slightly, terminal market demand was average, and tire finished - product inventory continued to increase. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 640,400 tons, the bonded - area inventory decreased while the general - trade inventory increased. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased to 12,800 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory continued to decline to 15,700 tons. Overall, demand is weakening, supply is increasing, rubber inventory is rising, trade negotiations are going smoothly, there are potential policy benefits, and the hype sentiment has cooled down. Strategically, it's advisable to wait and see for RU and NR, and BR has support [6] Pulp - Today, pulp dropped slightly. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was 5,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the price of Russian needles in the Yangtze River Delta was 5,450 yuan/ton; the price of eucalyptus pulp Jinyu was 4,150 yuan/ton. On July 24, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.143 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous period, a 1.7% month - on - month decline. Currently, the domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively abundant, pulp demand is still weak, downstream buyers tend to bargain, and demand is in the traditional off - season. With the cooling of anti - involution sentiment, the pulp fundamentals remain weak, and the price may return to low - level fluctuations. Operationally, it's advisable to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated at a high level. In terms of supply, the shipment of New Zealand logs was at a low level. As of July 25, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 64,100 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 1,700 cubic meters, a 2.72% increase. After entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume fluctuated around 60,000 cubic meters, and the overall outbound situation was good. As of July 25, the total national port log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 cubic meters. Among them, the radiata pine inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 70,000 cubic meters. The total log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. As the peak season is approaching, logs will gradually destock, the short - term spot price will rebound, and it's expected that the futures price will continue to rise. Operationally, it's advisable to maintain a bullish mindset [8]

Group 1 - COMEX silver inventory recorded at 15,561.73 tons on July 25, an increase of 78.28 tons from the previous day [1][2] - COMEX silver price on July 25 closed at $38.33 per ounce, down 2.44%, with a daily high of $39.52 and a low of $38.10 [1] Group 2 - EU is focusing on negotiations with the US despite impending counter-tariff plans, indicating positive progress in trade discussions [3] - The US may impose a 15% baseline tariff on EU goods, significantly lower than the previously threatened 30%, while maintaining a 50% tariff on steel [3] - EU may consider reducing some tariffs, such as the current 10% on car imports, as part of a "tariff for tariff" strategy [3]

Group 1 - The Trump administration will announce the results of a national security investigation into semiconductor imports within two weeks, raising concerns about potential new tariffs on chips [1] - The investigation, initiated on April 13, focuses on the semiconductor industry and the entire electronic supply chain, potentially laying the groundwork for new tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 [1] - Barclays has indicated that the timeline for imposing semiconductor tariffs is becoming clearer, with implementation likely after mid-August and no later than September [1] Group 2 - President Trump stated that many companies will invest in semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S. to avoid the impact of new tariffs, while the European Commission President has found a "better way" to circumvent the upcoming chip tariffs [2] - The U.S. has reached a 15% tariff agreement with the EU, which will increase investments in the U.S. by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products, while maintaining the current steel and aluminum tariffs [2] - The Trump administration is investigating the national security threat posed by reliance on foreign pharmaceuticals and semiconductor imports, alongside separate investigations into copper and lumber imports [2]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading below 9390, with a recent report showing a price of 9372 USD/oz, down 0.53% from the opening at 9300 USD/oz, indicating a short-term sideways trend [1] - The highest price reached today was 9447 USD/oz, while the lowest was 9290 USD/oz, suggesting volatility within the trading session [1] Group 2 - The EU is focusing on negotiations with the US despite plans for counter-tariffs, indicating positive progress in trade discussions [3] - A proposed framework similar to the US-Japan trade agreement may involve a 15% baseline tariff on EU goods, significantly lower than the previously threatened 30% tariff [3] - Key industries such as automotive and pharmaceuticals may be affected, with potential tariff exemptions for certain sectors, although high tariffs on steel remain a contentious issue [3] - The EU may consider reducing some tariffs, such as the current 10% on car imports, as part of a "tariff for tariff" strategy [3] Group 3 - The silver market is currently experiencing a bullish trend, with a support level established at 9300 and a potential resistance at 9550 [4] - Short-term trading is expected to remain within a high-level fluctuation range, with key levels to watch being 9300 for support and 9550 for resistance [4] - The market sentiment suggests caution against overly aggressive bullish positions, with a focus on potential breakout points for further movement [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the tension in trade negotiations between the EU and the US, particularly due to the impending 30% tariff threat, which has heightened market emotions and impacted silver prices [1][2][3] - As of July 24, 2025, the silver ETF holdings remained stable at 15,207.82 tons, indicating a balance in market sentiment towards silver [2] - The EU is striving to negotiate a deal before the August 1 deadline to avoid the full implementation of the 30% tariffs, which would significantly affect various industries [3] Group 2 - The recent trading analysis of silver indicates a bullish trend, with key resistance levels at $39.50 and support levels at $38.50, suggesting potential price movements in the near term [4] - The market sentiment has improved due to the successful signing of the US-Japan trade agreement, providing a template for EU negotiations [3] - The potential for tariff exemptions in certain sectors, such as aircraft and agricultural products, may offer some relief to affected industries within the EU [3]

Group 1 - The core issue is the escalating trade tensions between the US and EU, with President Trump threatening to impose a 30% tariff on EU products starting August 1, 2025, which could severely disrupt transatlantic trade [2][3] - The EU had hoped to negotiate a compromise to maintain a 10% tariff on most products, but the recent US proposals have been significantly higher, leading to a loss of confidence in negotiations [2] - The US has rejected the EU's proposal for a "freeze" on new tariffs, citing national security concerns, which further exacerbates the divide between the two parties [3] Group 2 - Silver prices experienced volatility, with a significant increase of over 2% on July 21, closing at $38.90 per ounce, and reaching a high of $39.03, approaching a multi-year high of $39.11 [4] - Analysts suggest that the decline in US Treasury yields and a general risk-off sentiment have weakened the dollar, contributing to the surge in silver prices [4] - If silver prices break through the annual high of $39.12, the next targets could be $39.50 and $40.00, while a drop below $38.50 may lead to a test of the $37.20 level [4]

Report Overview - Date: July 23, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Content: Morning report on the black series of commodities, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Iron ore: Supported by macro expectations, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Driven by macro sentiment, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][7] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Boosted by the macro market, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][11] - Coke: The second round of price increases has been implemented, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][15] - Coking coal: The expected supply policy constraints have been strengthened, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][15] - Thermal coal: Daily consumption has recovered, showing a stable and volatile trend [2][20] - Logs: Showing a fluctuating and repeated trend [2][23] 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental data**: The futures price closed at 823 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan or 1.73% from the previous day. The trading volume decreased by 43,544 lots. Spot prices generally increased, with the largest increase of 14 yuan/ton for Jumbuck (61%) [4] - **Macro and industry news**: The construction ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [4] - **Trend strength**: 0 [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental data**: The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,307 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 3.12%. The HC2510 contract of hot-rolled coil closed at 3,477 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan or 2.84%. Spot prices generally increased, with the largest increase of 80 yuan/ton for hot-rolled coil in Tianjin [7] - **Macro and industry news**: In June, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 867 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, including steel [7][9] - **Trend strength**: 1 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental data**: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased. The spot price of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the price of manganese ore increased by 0.3 yuan/ton degree [11] - **Macro and industry news**: On July 22, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in some regions increased. A steel mill in Shandong finalized the purchase prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [12] - **Trend strength**: 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental data**: The futures prices of coke and coking coal increased significantly. The spot price of coke in Rizhao Port increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the prices of some coking coal varieties also increased [15] - **Trend strength**: 1 for both coke and coking coal [17] Thermal Coal - **Fundamental data**: The ZC2507 contract of thermal coal had no trading volume. The prices of southern port and domestic origin coal are provided. The long and short positions of the top 20 members in the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange did not change [20][21] - **Trend strength**: 0 [22] Logs - **Fundamental data**: The prices of log futures contracts showed fluctuations. The spot prices of most log varieties remained stable, with a slight decrease in the prices of some wood squares [24] - **Macro and industry news**: The construction ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [26] - **Trend strength**: 0 [26]

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series by Guotai Junan Futures on July 22, 2025, covering multiple commodities in the black series [1]. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Different commodities in the black series have different trends: iron ore shows a strong - side oscillation supported by macro - expectations; rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese maintain strong - side oscillations due to persistent market sentiment; coke and coking coal are oscillating strongly; thermal coal stabilizes with oscillating as daily consumption recovers; logs oscillate repeatedly [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: Strong - side oscillation supported by macro - expectations [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures price closed at 809 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton with a 3.06% increase. The open - interest decreased by 29,220 lots. Spot prices of various types of iron ore all increased. Some basis and spreads showed minor changes [4]. - **News**: The downstream hydropower project of the Yarlung Zangbo River started on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Trend**: Strong - side oscillation due to persistent market sentiment [2][9][10]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 3,224 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton with a 2.15% increase; for hot - rolled coils HC2510, the closing price was 3,394 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan/ton with a 2.20% increase. Spot prices in different regions increased, and some basis and spreads changed [10]. - **News**: In June, the total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries. Steel production and inventory data in July showed certain changes [8][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coils [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend**: Strong - side oscillation due to persistent market sentiment [2][14]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia and silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia both increased by 50 yuan/ton. Some basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [14]. - **News**: On July 21, prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions increased. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were determined. In June, the national manganese ore import volume decreased compared to May but increased compared to the same period last year [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Oscillating strongly [2][18][19]. - **Fundamentals**: For coking coal JM2509, the closing price was 1,000 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton with an 8.64% increase; for coke J2509, the closing price was 1,603 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton with a 5.60% increase. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in some regions had minor changes, and some basis and spreads changed significantly [19]. - **News**: Northern port coking coal quotes and the Fenwei CCI metallurgical coal index on July 21 were released. Regarding the open - interest, for coking coal JM2509, long - position decreased by 8,626 lots and short - position decreased by 12,469 lots; for coke J2509, long - position increased by 358 lots and short - position increased by 74 lots [19][20][21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for coke and 1 for coking coal [21]. Thermal Coal - **Trend**: Stabilizing with oscillating as daily consumption recovers [2][22]. - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading on the previous day. Southern port foreign - trade thermal coal quotes and domestic thermal coal origin quotes were provided. Regarding the open - interest, both long - position and short - position of the ZC2507 contract decreased by 0 lots [22][23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [24]. Logs - **Trend**: Oscillating repeatedly [2][25]. - **Fundamentals**: Closing prices, trading volumes, and open - interests of different log contracts showed certain changes. Spot prices of various log products remained stable [26]. - **News**: The downstream hydropower project of the Yarlung Zangbo River started on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [28].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's tariffs, particularly the nine industry-specific tariffs based on national security concerns, which are more stringent than reciprocal tariffs based on trade deficits [1][3]. Group 1: Steel and Aluminum - Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and a 10% tariff on aluminum in 2018, which were later reinstated and increased to 50% in 2025 [4][6][7]. - The tariffs primarily target Canada, which accounts for over 20% of U.S. steel imports and nearly half of aluminum imports, followed by the EU and Japan [9]. - The tariffs have significant political implications, especially in key swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which are crucial for elections [13][14][15]. Group 2: Copper - A 50% tariff on copper was announced, affecting various copper products, with the U.S. relying on imports for about half of its copper needs [16][17]. - Chile is a major copper supplier, contributing to a quarter of global supply, while China and other Asian countries hold significant copper reserves [18][19]. Group 3: Automotive and Parts - A 25% tariff on imported cars and parts was implemented, impacting a market where the U.S. imports over $300 billion worth of vehicles annually [22][23]. - The primary countries affected include Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Germany, Canada, and the UK, with Mexico being the most impacted [24][25]. - The tariffs are expected to influence U.S. automakers significantly, as they rely heavily on imported parts, with nearly 60% of parts being imported [25][32]. Group 4: Commercial Aircraft and Jet Engines - The U.S. imports more commercial aircraft and jet engines than it exports, with a trade deficit of $33 billion in 2024 [40]. - Nearly 50% of these imports come from the EU, with significant contributions from Canada and the UK [41]. Group 5: Wood Products - The U.S. is investigating tariffs on imported wood products, citing national security concerns due to military construction needs [43][45]. Group 6: Pharmaceuticals - The U.S. imports about 80% of its generic drugs and half of its brand-name drugs, with significant imports from Ireland and China [46][48]. - The U.S. has raised concerns about trade imbalances with Ireland, where many pharmaceutical companies have established operations [48]. Group 7: Semiconductors - The semiconductor industry is under scrutiny for potential tariffs, as the U.S. imports $200 billion more in semiconductors than it exports [51]. - Major suppliers include mainland China, Taiwan, and Mexico, with a significant reliance on foreign production [52]. Group 8: Critical Minerals - The U.S. is heavily reliant on imports for critical minerals, with 12 out of 50 minerals fully imported and 28 more than half imported [53][54]. - South Africa and Canada are the largest suppliers, while China dominates the rare earth imports [55]. Group 9: Manufacturing Employment - The article notes a decline in U.S. manufacturing jobs from 17 million to 13 million over the past 30 years, with tariffs aimed at bringing jobs back to the U.S. [58]. - The transition of supply chains is complex and varies by industry, with manufacturing sectors like automotive facing longer timelines for relocation [59][60].