Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a strong performance in commodities, with a notable increase in copper prices, while equity markets show a divergence in performance across regions, particularly with European markets outperforming the US and Japan [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Performance - Commodity prices continued to strengthen, with the CRB/Nanhua index rising and the increase in COMEX copper closing at a significant 10.9% [1]. - Equity performance showed increased divergence, with US stocks declining while the dollar strengthened [1]. - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks exhibited a strong positive correlation with US and Japanese stocks, while A-shares showed a strong negative correlation with Chinese government bonds [1]. Group 2: Equity Markets - European stock markets outperformed those in the US and Japan, with the German DAX and STOXX50 leading the gains, while US stocks experienced a broad pullback [2]. - Emerging markets saw strong performances from Vietnam and South Korea, with the Ho Chi Minh index rising by 5.1% and the Korean Composite Index increasing by 4.0% [2]. - In contrast, other emerging markets like India and Brazil showed weaker performance, with Brazil's IBOVESPA dropping by 3.6% [2]. Group 3: Bond Markets - China's bond market exhibited a "bear flat" pattern, with AAA-rated credit bond yields decreasing in the short term and increasing in the long term [2]. - The US bond market showed a "bear steep" pattern, with a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield influenced by inflation expectations, while the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September decreased compared to the previous week [2]. Group 4: Commodities and Currency - Commodity prices continued to rise, with 12 out of 14 types of futures contracts increasing, particularly in copper, coking coal, and silver, while nickel saw a decline of 1.1% [3]. - Since the beginning of the year, copper has shown a cumulative increase of 39.2%, with inventory levels for gold and silver decreasing [3]. - The US dollar index rose by 0.9%, reversing its previous depreciation, while the euro, pound, and yen depreciated against the dollar, although they have appreciated relative to the dollar since the start of the year [3].

Group 1 - UBS Securities forecasts a weaker US dollar will lead to increased foreign capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks, while A-shares may maintain a low premium over H-shares unless significant new external funds are attracted [1] - The report highlights that A-shares benefit from a slight appreciation of the RMB, resulting in some foreign capital returning, but the impact is limited due to the low foreign ownership ratio in A-shares [1] - Hong Kong stocks are expected to see more pronounced benefits from the weaker dollar, with southbound capital net purchases reaching a historical high in the first half of the year [1] Group 2 - Companies with high import costs or significant dollar-denominated debt are likely to benefit more from the weakening dollar [1]

Group 1: Major Asset Insights - Gold is expected to continue its bull market, with a mid-term target raised to $4200 due to geopolitical tensions and potential Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year [2][5][26] - Oil prices are likely to remain in the $60-70 range, with a risk of dropping below $55, as OPEC+ plans to increase production amid a shift towards supply surplus [2][27][37] - Copper prices are projected to rise above $5.30 due to tightening global inventories, despite uncertainties related to tariff policies [2][5][40] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market is expected to maintain an upward trend, supported by the resolution of tariff issues and anticipated Fed rate cuts, with a bullish sentiment returning [3][41] - The S&P 500 has regained its bullish momentum, with market expectations for two rate cuts by the Fed later this year [3][41][42] Group 3: Japanese Market - The Nikkei 225 index has shown significant gains, with a potential to break above 42500, driven by foreign capital inflows and improving economic indicators [3][43][45] - Japan's economic recovery is attracting international investment, with a low interest rate environment supporting corporate growth [3][43][45] Group 4: Macroeconomic Outlook - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown, with Q1 GDP growth at 2.1%, the lowest in eight quarters, and a potential for Fed rate cuts in response to economic conditions [11][20] - Inflation in the U.S. is showing signs of decline, but tariff policies may lead to a resurgence in inflation later this year [15][20][18] Group 5: Global Trade Dynamics - The ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and other countries are expected to ease trade tensions, with a likelihood of reaching agreements that could stabilize the global economic environment [22][23] - The impact of U.S. tariff policies on global markets is anticipated to diminish, although minor frictions may still cause short-term volatility in asset prices [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered Bank's report emphasizes a positive outlook on global equities while being cautious about the US dollar's strength, suggesting a shift towards risk assets due to expected dollar weakness [2][3]. Global Stock Outlook - The bank continues to favor global stocks, particularly increasing the allocation to Asian equities (excluding Japan) due to the anticipated weakening of the dollar, which is expected to attract more capital into emerging markets [3][11]. - The chief investment officer for North Asia at Standard Chartered highlights the ongoing uncertainty in the global investment environment, with a structural risk of "de-dollarization" gaining attention [4]. Fixed Income Strategy - Standard Chartered expects the dollar's decline to enhance the appeal of emerging market local currency bonds, maintaining an overweight position in these assets [7]. - The bank views global bonds as a core portfolio component, favoring emerging market local currency government bonds while underweighting developed market investment-grade corporate bonds due to high valuations and economic uncertainty [9]. Currency Perspective - The bank predicts that cyclical factors will lead to a weaker dollar over the next 6-12 months, with the euro and yen likely benefiting from this trend [13]. - Despite the dollar's ongoing dominance, there are signs of a gradual erosion of its position due to changing trade flows and structural debt concerns [14][15]. Gold and Diversification - The report notes that gold is becoming increasingly attractive as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, with central banks, especially in emerging markets, increasing their gold purchases [18][19]. - According to a survey by the World Gold Council, 76% of central banks believe that gold's share in global reserves will rise over the next five years, up from 69% in the previous year [18].

Group 1 - International silver prices experienced a slight decline, currently trading at $36.66 per ounce, with a decrease of 0.20% [1][4] - The opening price for silver today was $36.69 per ounce, reaching a high of $36.76 and a low of $36.49 [1][4] - The resistance level for silver is identified at $37.30-$37.40, while the support level is at $35.90-$36.00 [4] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index in the U.S. saw a slight decline amid ongoing uncertainty regarding U.S. trade policies, particularly due to President Trump's recent tariff threats [2] - Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper expands the scope of the global trade war, with additional tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals expected soon [2][3] - Investors are awaiting the second-quarter earnings season starting mid-July, feeling reassured by the recent passage of a government spending plan that includes business-friendly tax policies [3]

Global Asset Market Performance - On July 8, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies were as follows: the US was 4.401, the UK was 4.632, etc. The latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes varied among different countries [3]. - The 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies on July 8, 2025, showed different values for the US, UK, etc., with corresponding changes over different time periods [3]. - The exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies on July 8, 2025, had different values for South Africa, Brazil, etc., and also had different changes over different time periods [3]. - The on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates and their corresponding changes on July 8, 2025, were presented, including latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes [3]. - Major economies' stock indices on July 8, 2025, had different closing prices for the Dow Jones, S&P 500, etc., and different changes over different time periods [3]. - Emerging - economy stock indices on July 8, 2025, had different closing prices for Malaysia, Australia, etc., and different changes over different time periods [3]. - Credit bond indices on July 8, 2025, had different values for emerging - economy investment - grade, high - yield, etc., and different changes over different time periods [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - On July 8, 2025, the closing prices, price changes, valuations, risk premiums, fund flows, trading volumes, and basis spreads of A - shares, CSI 300, etc., were presented [5]. Treasury Futures Trading Data - On July 8, 2025, the closing prices and price changes of Treasury futures T00, TF00, etc., were presented, along with the money market's capital interest rates and daily changes [6].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that President Trump signed an executive order to extend the tariff delay until August 1, alleviating tensions in global financial markets [1] - Following the announcement, Asian stock markets showed a significant rebound, with the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1%, and the South Korean KOSPI rising over 1.5% before settling around 0.8% [1] - The Nikkei 225 index initially rose by 0.5% but later experienced a slight pullback, while major indices in Thailand and Vietnam also saw gains [1] Group 2 - In the foreign exchange market, the euro and pound rebounded, leading to a weaker dollar, although the yen fell to a two-week low against the dollar [1][6] - The euro appreciated by 0.3% to 1.1742, and the pound rose by 0.24% to 1.3631, while the dollar index declined by approximately 0.2% [6] - The Japanese yen and South Korean won both experienced fluctuations, with the yen continuing to face pressure, dropping to 146.44 against the dollar [9] Group 3 - Trump's announcement included a warning of potential tariffs on imports from Kazakhstan, Malaysia, South Africa, Laos, and Myanmar, with rates ranging from 25% to 40% [15] - The market interpreted Trump's actions as a negotiation strategy rather than a definitive stance on tariffs, with analysts suggesting that investors are overlooking the latest tariff announcements [15] - The August 1 deadline for tariff negotiations is confirmed but not absolute, as Trump indicated openness to alternative proposals from other countries [15]

Group 1 - The concept of "American exceptionalism" highlights the unique attractiveness of the U.S. financial system, which allows American enterprises and government to access low-cost capital, creating a positive cycle that attracts global funds [2][5] - The U.S. bond market totals $29 trillion, accounting for 40% of global fixed-income assets, while the U.S. stock market has a total market capitalization of $65 trillion, representing a significant portion of the global equity market [5] - Over the past decade, U.S. corporate earnings growth has significantly outpaced other regions, with S&P 500 earnings per share doubling, compared to a much lower increase in the European Stoxx 600 index [5] Group 2 - Signs of challenges to "American exceptionalism" are emerging, including high tariffs on imports and concerns over the sustainability of federal debt, which could lead to a negative spiral of rising debt and interest rates [8][11] - Despite these challenges, there is currently no clear evidence of large-scale foreign investor withdrawal, as foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries remain near historical highs, and the S&P 500 index continues to reach new highs [11] - The average price-to-earnings ratio of S&P 500 constituents is currently 50% higher than that of the MSCI global index (excluding the U.S.), indicating a need for sustained earnings growth from U.S. companies [11] Group 3 - The "TINA" (There Is No Alternative) investment logic is being tested, with some strategists viewing this as an opportunity to rebalance portfolios, and U.S. companies are increasingly issuing euro-denominated bonds to hedge policy risks [14] - The debate surrounding "American exceptionalism" also touches on social equity, as income growth has disproportionately favored the top 1% of earners compared to the middle and lower classes [14] - Despite the challenges, some analysts argue that the U.S. retains structural advantages, including a growing labor force, high corporate profit margins, and a large, homogeneous domestic market [14]

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. tariff policy is causing significant turmoil in global markets, with mixed signals from the Trump administration leading to confusion about the effective dates of tariffs [1][13]. Market Reactions - Asian stock markets mostly declined, with the Nikkei 225 and Thailand's SET index both dropping approximately 0.5%. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index fell by 0.6% [1]. - U.S. stock index futures also faced pressure, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both down about 0.5% [1]. - Commodity prices generally decreased, with gold dropping over $20 to $3314 per ounce, and copper falling for the third consecutive day to $9821 per ton [1][6]. Commodity Market Impact - The uncertainty in trade policies has led to widespread declines in commodity prices, with iron ore prices in Singapore down 0.3% to $95.60 per ton, and futures for steel in Dalian and Shanghai also declining [6]. - Brent crude oil prices fell by 0.6% to $67.8 per barrel, while WTI crude oil prices decreased by 1.4% to $64.7 per barrel, influenced by both tariff policies and OPEC+ decisions to increase production [7]. Bond Market Response - There was an increase in demand for safe-haven bonds, with the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds dropping nearly 2 basis points to 4.326% [10]. - The U.S. dollar index slightly rose to 97.071, while the euro to dollar exchange rate remained stable at 1.1771, close to last week's high of 1.1830 [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that market volatility is expected to persist, and investors should diversify their U.S. assets to other regions while managing portfolio risks [1][2] - The U.S. credit rating downgrade and economic slowdown are anticipated to lead to a fluctuating stock market in the second half of the year [1] - The company maintains a neutral outlook on Hong Kong stocks and a slightly positive view on selective bonds, while cash is adjusted to a neutral position as a defensive asset [1] Group 2 - The uncertainty caused by tariff news is expected to remain high in the short to medium term, prompting investors to allocate funds to lower-risk assets [2] - The company holds a cautiously optimistic view on global bonds, particularly investment-grade credit, as a means to enhance risk management in portfolios [2] - Despite concerns over the negative impacts of tariff policies on the economy and stock market, recent data shows economic resilience, with a focus on long-term growth sectors while being mindful of short-term pullback risks [2]