Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving stock fund management models in the financial market, highlighting the increased attention from both institutional investors and retail investors towards market funding structures [1] - The term "Top Ten Stock Leverage" has gained popularity, serving more as a reference for information and market observation rather than a specific operational guide [1] Group 1: Changes in Funding Structure - The liquidity of A-shares has been continuously enhancing, with frequent sector rotations indicating increased market activity [1] - Since September, sectors such as new energy, energy storage, AI technology, and robotics have shown significant strength, with a clear influx of funds [1] - The changes in funding structure reflect a phase adjustment in investment preferences and the depth of participation from different types of funds [1] Group 2: Industry Significance of "Top Ten Stock Leverage" - The "Top Ten Stock Leverage" information highlights the overall observation of certain fund management models rather than providing specific operational guidelines [3] - Understanding various fund management methods can elucidate the relationship between fund turnover and market activity [3] - Analyzing the scale and distribution of major funding institutions aids in assessing funding concentration and industry transparency [3] - Frequent discussions around "leverage" often indicate a temporary rise in market sentiment and risk appetite, warranting rational attention [3] Group 3: Market Sector and Fund Flow Observations - The market rotation since September exhibits distinct structural characteristics, with fund flows not following a single trend but rather reflecting a natural outcome in the search for balance [4] - A dynamic interplay between short-term funds and long-term allocation funds is emerging [4] Group 4: Rational Perspective on Industry Observation - Observing the market should focus on information integration and rational analysis rather than following trends or blind interpretations [5] - The significance of terms like "Top Ten Stock Leverage" lies more in the realm of industry information [5] Group 5: Conclusion - The information related to "Top Ten Stock Leverage" reflects the complexity and diversity of market funding structures [6] - Rational interpretation of this information aids in understanding the internal operational logic of the market [6] - As financial tools and fund management methods continue to innovate, market structures may become more diverse, emphasizing the importance of maintaining an objective and calm perspective [6] Group 6: Sector-Specific Insights - The new energy and energy storage sectors are continuously favored by funds due to policy support and demand [7] - The AI and computing sectors are experiencing active fund flows driven by technological breakthroughs and corporate strategies [7] - The non-ferrous and materials sectors are seeing increased short-term fund participation influenced by international market fluctuations [7] - Understanding the underlying logic of fund flows is crucial rather than making simplistic judgments about price movements [7] - Changes in funding structures are often closely related to policy rhythms, highlighting the importance of macro and policy influences [7] - Reliable information sources are essential for a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of "confidence" in the Chinese economy, likening it to a theatrical play titled "Waiting for Confidence," where confidence is a crucial yet elusive element for economic recovery [4][6]. Group 1: Importance of Confidence - Confidence is described as a "metaphysical" element that drives economic actions and decisions, transforming uncertainty into actionable expectations [6][8]. - The article emphasizes that confidence cannot be artificially created through policies or data alone; it exists in the collective consciousness of individuals [8][22]. Group 2: Case Study of Argentina - Argentina serves as a case study where confidence was temporarily restored through external intervention, specifically a $200 billion currency swap line from the U.S. Treasury, which provided a significant credit backing to the Argentine central bank [12][14]. - Historical parallels are drawn to past crises, such as the 1994-1995 Mexican Tequila Crisis, where similar confidence-boosting measures were effective [14][15]. Group 3: Challenges in Restoring Confidence - Despite temporary boosts in confidence, the article questions whether it can be sustained, highlighting that market participants remain skeptical and risk premiums are still high [21][22]. - The political landscape in Argentina poses a significant challenge, as any signs of failure in reforms can lead to a rapid loss of confidence among investors [21][22].

Group 1 - The Indian stock market sentiment has been negatively impacted by multiple factors, including U.S. punitive tariffs, weak corporate earnings, and India's rise to one of the highest valuation markets globally. As of September 26, overseas funds have withdrawn a net $17 billion from the Indian stock market this year, approaching the historical record set in 2022 [1] - The trend of foreign capital withdrawal from the Indian stock market continued into the beginning of the week, with preliminary data from Indian exchanges indicating an outflow of $319 million on September 29 alone [3] - Analysts on Wall Street noted that the sell-off in the Indian stock market has intensified this quarter, particularly after U.S. President Trump significantly raised H-1B visa fees, impacting tech companies reliant on this program. Given the unlikely short-term trade agreement between India and the U.S. and the lack of corporate earnings growth, analysts believe foreign capital is not expected to return quickly [3] Group 2 - To mitigate the impact of U.S. policy changes on the Indian economy, the Reserve Bank of India has announced measures to provide flexibility and reduce compliance burdens for exporters, importers, and re-export traders, extending the foreign exchange expenditure deadline for triangular trade transactions from four months to six months [3] - The Indian Ministry of Energy has stated that despite facing challenges, it remains committed to promoting economic growth [3]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market has shown a small upward trend, with the Dow Jones increasing by over 80 points, the S&P 500 rising by 0.4%, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.3% [3] - In September, the Dow Jones rose by 1.87%, while the Nasdaq surged by 5.61%, continuing a five-month streak of gains [3] Government Shutdown Concerns - The potential government shutdown is a significant concern, as it could disrupt economic data collection, particularly the non-farm payroll report scheduled for release [3][4] - The Vice President indicated a high probability of a shutdown, with estimates from cryptocurrency platforms suggesting an 85% chance [3] - Analysts express that if the shutdown extends beyond two weeks, market sentiment could shift from cautious observation to panic [3] Trade Policy Developments - Former President Trump has announced new tariffs on lumber and furniture, as well as threats of tariffs on foreign films and a 100% tax on brand-name drugs [4] - These trade actions may not have an immediate impact on the stock market but could gradually affect corporate profits [4] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on long-term stability rather than short-term market fluctuations, especially in light of the looming government shutdown [4] - The current market rally should be viewed with caution, as underlying risks remain unaddressed [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market conditions, highlighting the balance in the funding environment and the performance of both the stock and bond markets, particularly in light of recent central bank actions and economic indicators. Group 1: Market Overview - The stock market experienced a slight increase, supported by a stable funding environment and a central bank announcement of a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, leading to a downward trend in interest rates [5][6]. - The central bank conducted a 242.2 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 33.9 billion yuan, indicating a balanced funding situation [3][4]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Bond Market - The yield on long-term bonds has significantly decreased, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping to approximately 1.783% [5][6]. - The funding rates remained stable, with the overnight rate (DR001) slightly rising to around 1.39%, while the 7-day rate (DR007) fell by 15 basis points to approximately 1.44% [4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI for September met expectations, contributing to the slight rise in the stock market [5]. - The article notes a shift in market sentiment regarding government bonds, with a recent announcement from the Ministry of Finance affecting the pricing of long-term bonds [6].

Report Information - Report Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Report Title: Daily Report on Major Asset Classes [9] Global Asset Market Performance 10-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields on September 29, 2025: US 4.140%, UK 4.700%, France 3.531%, etc [3] - Latest Changes: US -0.036, UK -0.045, France -0.037, etc [3] - One-Week Changes: US -0.008, UK -0.012, France -0.028, etc [3] - One-Month Changes: US -0.090, UK -0.050, France -0.005, etc [3] - One-Year Changes: US 0.389, UK 0.778, France 0.594, etc [3] 2-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields on September 29, 2025: US 3.640%, UK 3.983%, Germany 2.020%, etc [3] - Latest Changes: US 0.070, UK -0.026, Germany -0.007, etc [3] - One-Week Changes: US 0.070, UK 0.008, Germany 0.006, etc [3] - One-Month Changes: US 0.120, UK 0.023, Germany 0.069, etc [3] - One-Year Changes: US 0.050, UK 0.071, Germany -0.126, etc [3] US Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Market Currencies - Rates on September 29, 2025: Brazil 5.322, South Africa ZAR 17.273, South Korean Won 1400.400, etc [3] - Latest Changes: Brazil -0.40%, South Africa ZAR -0.37%, South Korean Won -0.72%, etc [3] - One-Week Changes: Brazil -0.24%, South Africa ZAR -0.31%, South Korean Won 0.66%, etc [3] - One-Month Changes: Brazil -2.15%, South Africa ZAR -1.96%, South Korean Won 0.50%, etc [3] - One-Year Changes: Brazil -3.88%, South Africa ZAR -0.45%, South Korean Won 4.88%, etc [3] Stock Indices of Major Economies - Values on September 29, 2025: S&P 500 6661.210, Dow Jones Industrial Average 46316.070, NASDAQ 22591.150, etc [3] - Latest Changes: S&P 500 0.26%, Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.15%, NASDAQ 0.48%, etc [3] - One-Week Changes: S&P 500 -0.49%, Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.14%, NASDAQ -0.87%, etc [3] - One-Month Changes: Mexico Index 6.36%, UK Index 1.13%, France CAC 2.24%, etc [3] - One-Year Changes: S&P 500 16.48%, Dow Jones Industrial Average 9.95%, NASDAQ 25.69%, etc [3] Credit Bond Indices - Values on September 29, 2025: US Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 3517.910, Eurozone Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 265.036, etc [3] - Latest Changes: US Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 0.34%, Eurozone Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 0.13%, etc [4] - One-Week Changes: US Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 0.09%, Eurozone Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 0.08%, etc [4] - One-Month Changes: US Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 1.56%, Eurozone Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 0.51%, etc [4] - One-Year Changes: US Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 3.50%, Eurozone Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 3.93%, etc [4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing Prices: A-share 3862.53, CSI 300 4620.05, SSE 50 2973.04, etc [5] - Price Changes (%): A-share 0.90%, CSI 300 1.54%, SSE 50 1.09%, etc [5] Valuation - PE(TTM): CSI 300 14.19, SSE 50 11.73, CSI 500 34.92, etc [5] - Month-on-Month Changes: CSI 300 0.15, SSE 50 0.05, CSI 500 0.47, etc [5] Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10-Year Interest Rate: S&P 500 -0.53, Germany DAX 2.40 [5] - Month-on-Month Changes: S&P 500 0.03, Germany DAX 0.04 [5] Fund Flows - Latest Values: A-share 836.51, Main Board 463.46, Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Board - [5] - Average Values in the Past 5 Days: A-share -302.46, Main Board -264.41, Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Board - [5] Trading Volume - Latest Values: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges 21614.61, CSI 300 6933.95, SSE 50 1899.69, etc [5] - Month-on-Month Changes: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges 145.76, CSI 300 946.71, SSE 50 397.81, etc [5] Main Contract Premiums or Discounts - Basis: IF -15.45, IH 2.96, IC -118.36 [5] - Premium or Discount Ratios: IF -0.33%, IH 0.10%, IC -1.61% [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data Closing Prices - T00 107.660, TF00 105.485, T01 107.325, TF01 105.360 [6] Price Changes (%) - T00 0.00%, TF00 0.00%, T01 0.00%, TF01 0.00% [6] Money Market - Capital Interest Rates: R001 1.3776%, R007 1.8694%, SHIBOR-3M 1.5800% [6] - Daily Changes (BP): R001 -17.00, R007 32.00, SHIBOR-3M 0.00 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility last week, closing lower amid mixed signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate expectations, with the S&P 500 index down 0.31% and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.65% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding high stock valuations were interpreted as a warning against current market overheating, putting pressure on liquidity-dependent tech stocks [1] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for August rose 0.2% month-over-month, aligning with market expectations and alleviating some market sentiment on Friday [1] - Despite high valuations, the market remains optimistic about potential interest rate cuts in October and December, suggesting continued expectations for accommodative policies from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: QDII Fund Dynamics - The overall premium level of QDII funds slightly rebounded last week, particularly notable in U.S. broad-based funds, which averaged a 1.68% increase, indicating renewed investor interest in these assets [1] - Several QDII funds, especially those focused on U.S. stocks, have seen adjustments in daily subscription limits, which may impact investor strategies and market liquidity [2] - The performance of various QDII funds will be influenced by macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve policy movements, with a focus on inflation pressures and employment data changes [2]

Report Overview - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Operation of Major Asset Classes (20250922 - 20250926) - US Inflation Data Meets Expectations, with Commodities Rising Overall [1] - Timeframe: September 22 - September 26, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global: The market's performance last week was influenced by economic data. The US 8 - month PCE year - on - year growth rate met market expectations. The dollar index ended the week higher, stocks and bonds declined, and commodities rose. In general, commodities > stocks > bonds in terms of dollar - denominated assets [4][7]. - Domestic: China's industrial enterprise profits returned to positive growth in August year - on - year. The stock market and commodities ended the week higher, and the bond market declined. Overall, commodities > stocks > bonds [4][20]. - Outlook: The focus is on the release of domestic and foreign macro - data during the National Day. There are important data such as non - farm payrolls to be released, leading to high market uncertainty. After the holiday, price fluctuations of major asset classes may increase [4][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Major Asset Performance 3.1.1 Global Stock Market - Most global stock markets declined. US stocks had a weekly correction. From a regional perspective, the three major US stock indexes ended the week lower, with a relatively large decline in the Asia - Pacific region. Emerging markets underperformed developed markets, and the VIX index continued to operate at a low level [9]. - Specific index performance: MSCI US was down 0.35%, S&P 500 was down 0.31%, MSCI Asia - Pacific was down 1.02%, etc. [12][13] 3.1.2 Global Bond Market - Fed officials had some differences in the path of dollar interest rate cuts this year. Medium - and long - term US bond yields generally rose. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond rose 6BP to 4.2% weekly, and the bond market declined. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [16]. 3.1.3 Global Foreign Exchange Market - The initial value of the month - on - month growth rate of US durable goods orders in August far exceeded expectations. The dollar index rose weekly, and most non - US currencies depreciated against the dollar. The RMB exchange rate fluctuated weakly. The weekly increase of the dollar index was 0.55% [17]. 3.1.4 Global Commodity Market - Geopolitical factors caused disruptions again, and international oil prices ended the week higher. Expectations of dollar interest rate cuts supported international precious metal prices. Most industrial metals and agricultural product prices fell [19]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance 3.2.1 Domestic Stock Market - Market sentiment changed little. Most of the major broad - based A - share indexes rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. In terms of style, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index had the highest increase. In terms of sectors, electronics and non - ferrous metals led the gains, while consumer services underperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.21% weekly [21]. 3.2.2 Domestic Bond Market - The central bank's net injection in the open market operation was 940.6 billion yuan. The liquidity marginally eased, and the bond market was weak. Overall, corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [25]. 3.2.3 Domestic Commodity Market - The domestic commodity market continued to rise weekly. Among the major commodity sectors, precious metals led the gains, while the black - related sectors underperformed [26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market experienced a significant downturn in the second half of 2025, mainly due to the rise of the equity market and commodities, as well as institutional behavior adjustments. However, in the fourth quarter, the bond market is expected to recover, supported by the coordinated efforts of monetary and fiscal policies and the relatively friendly monetary environment [2][37][47]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Sharp Decline of Bond Futures in the Second Half of the Year - In 2025, the Treasury bond futures market was extremely volatile, with five distinct stages. From July onwards, all maturities of Treasury bond futures declined from their highs, and there was no obvious sign of stabilization in the short term. For example, the TL main contract dropped by more than 6% [3]. 3.2. Correction of Premature Pricing 3.2.1. Dominance of the Game between Institutions and the Central Bank - In the first half of the year, the market continued the bullish trend since November 2024. After the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, the market anticipated interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts in advance, leading to a rapid decline in bond yields. However, the Central Bank took measures to cool down the market, including strict supervision, tightening of the capital market, and policy implementation, which weakened the bullish sentiment [11][12]. 3.2.2. Asset Rotation and Increased Risk Appetite - **Commodity Market**: In July, the anti - involution policy promoted the rise of certain commodities such as lithium carbonate, polysilicon, coking coal, and coke. The policy was later adjusted, and the enthusiasm in the commodity market subsided [20][24]. - **Equity Market**: Driven by factors such as technological innovation narratives and policy reforms, the domestic stock market had a strong bullish trend from July to September. Major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and CSI 300 all had significant increases, attracting funds from the bond market [28]. - **Institutional Behavior**: The revision of the regulations on public - offering fund sales fees and the possible cancellation of tax exemptions for public - offering fund dividends affected institutional behavior. Although there was some short - term panic selling, the long - term impact on the market structure was limited [34]. 3.3. Expected Recovery of the Bond Market in the Fourth Quarter - **Insufficient Attractiveness of Bond Yields**: In the past two years, the decline in bond yields was supported by the fundamental situation and the asset shortage environment. However, this year, the emergence of the equity market and the commodity market's bullish trends has led to a diversion of funds from the bond market [37]. - **Fundamentals as the Anchor**: The main negative factor for the bond market is the diversion of funds to risk assets. Although the short - term impact of asset linkage on the bond market is magnified, the market deviation will eventually be corrected. The monetary policy is expected to remain relatively loose, which is beneficial to the bond market [40]. - **Synergistic Efforts of Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank will cooperate more closely to improve the effectiveness of macro - policies. Considering the current economic situation, the fundamentals are still favorable for the bond market, and the bond market is expected to recover in the fourth quarter [46][47].

Core Insights - Global stock markets have shown strong performance since the beginning of 2025, with the MSCI Global Index rising approximately 15% year-to-date, continuing a robust trend from previous years [1] - The average annual return for global stocks since the end of the 2022 bear market has reached 20%, which may surprise some investors who typically anchor their expectations around a long-term average return of 7%-10% [1] - This strong performance is not an anomaly but a recurring feature in market cycles, with investment-grade credit bonds historically yielding 6%-7% during economic expansions, while high-yield credit bonds have averaged returns of 11%-12% [1] Investment Insights - Investors should not be deterred by strong market performance; the 15%-20% rise in stocks this year should not be a reason for concern unless an economic downturn is anticipated [2] - Managing downside risk is crucial for enhancing long-term average returns; investors may consider funds that maintain strong participation in rising markets while minimizing downside risk, such as defensive equity funds and hedge funds [2] - Assets with favorable return characteristics, such as credit bonds, are particularly valuable for asset allocators, as they tend to perform well in up years and experience smaller losses in down years [2] Areas of Focus - Key structural growth catalysts to watch include fiscal stimulus, policy reforms, and potential interest rate cuts by central banks [3] - Monitoring inflation trends and the potential rise in cross-asset correlations is essential, despite significant progress made by central banks in controlling inflation [3] - The ability of corporate earnings growth to extend beyond large tech companies to a broader range of industries will be critical for achieving a more balanced and sustainable market rally [5]