黄金方面： 隔夜黄金小周期趋势改变，黄金冲破关键压力位，未来有进一步走高的可能，从大周期来看，黄金仍是处于无趋势状态，短线 方向变化较快，投资者在仓位和风控上要有所调整。 据美国两党政策智库"负责任联邦预算委员会"（CRFB）最新预测，从2026财年到2035财年，美国的累计赤字将达到22.7万亿美 元，而国会预算办公室1月份的预测为21.8万亿美元。赤字扩大主要是因为减税法案和特朗普的关税政策，仅仅减税法案就可能 使得美国赤字增加4.6万亿美元。 百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，美国赤字扩大将直接导致美国债务扩大，特朗普在节流上的尝试已经宣告失败，开 源上也无太大起色，所以大概率会转化成债务，据估算，美国赤字在未来十年将稳步上升，到2035年将达到2.6万亿美元，占 GDP的5.9%。 技术面：黄金日线收小阳线，价格站上长期均线。1小时周期价格重新进入前期成交密集区，短线趋势改变，日内大概率震荡上 行，可关注下方3333美元一线的支撑。 原油方面： 隔夜油价小幅反弹，但整体走势仍难言乐观。隔夜美国EIA原油库存有喜有忧，库存出现近期最大幅度的下降，但后期对油价的 支撑作用可能有限，产量和出口量连续上升 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint suggests that while the economy is slowing down, it is not in a recession, providing opportunities for patient investors [4] - The S&P 500 is expected to reach 6500 points by 2026, and high-quality bonds will become more attractive due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - The market may experience fluctuations due to tariffs and inflation, but overall asset performance remains lively [4] Group 2 - Emerging markets, particularly China, are expected to benefit from stable RMB expectations, technological innovation, and domestic demand, creating new opportunities for capital inflow [5] - Global market trends vary, with Europe and Japan showing moderate gains, while emerging markets experience short-term volatility; however, India and Taiwan are performing well, especially in AI-related industries [5] - Investment strategies should focus on "core" assets such as U.S. Treasuries, investment-grade bonds, and leading stocks, while caution is advised for high-yield bonds and commodities due to potential oversupply risks [5]

Group 1 - The capital market landscape in 2025 is shifting towards diversified asset allocation, moving away from single-asset strategies to include equities, fixed income, and physical assets [1] - Structural opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market are evident, with companies like (02195.HK/34lp9) achieving a 45% increase in the AI healthcare sector and (02195.HK/83nm1) benefiting from stable dividend yields above 5.2% due to renewable infrastructure policies [2] - The bond market is seeing green bonds represented by (02195.HK/46df2) with yields surpassing 6.5%, while convertible bonds like (02195.HK/29rg4) offer a balanced risk-reward profile [2] Group 2 - Gold is highlighted as a traditional safe-haven asset, showing unique value during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, with a combination of physical gold and (02195.HK/38ts6) gold ETFs meeting liquidity needs while avoiding transaction losses [2] - The investment strategy suggests dividing funds into core and satellite allocations, with core investments in (02195.HK/14kb9) bond funds and (02195.HK/77pd0) blue-chip stocks, while satellite investments include sector-specific targets like (02195.HK/22wf4) [3] - Risk management focuses on three dimensions: using (02195.HK/41qr9) cross-market ETFs to hedge currency risk, employing (02195.HK/58sj2) volatility index products for market risk management, and allocating (02195.HK/36xf8) gold options to address extreme events [3] Group 3 - The rise of smart investment advisory tools is changing allocation methods, with systems like (02195.HK/26vq7) dynamically adjusting stock-bond ratios based on economic indicators [4] - There is a caution against algorithmic homogenization risk, suggesting that maintaining a portion of actively managed products like (02195.HK/39zp0) can enhance portfolio differentiation [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need for a balanced asset allocation strategy among stocks, bonds, and gold in the context of the 2025 global capital market, which is characterized by significant differentiation and changing dynamics [1] Group 1: Stock Investment - Investors are advised to focus on Hong Kong stocks with core competitive advantages, particularly in digital infrastructure, smart city solutions, and electric vehicle charging networks [1] - Specific companies highlighted include those with a 37% year-on-year revenue growth in smart city solutions and strategic breakthroughs in electric vehicle charging networks [1] - Other notable sectors include biopharmaceutical innovation and metaverse application development, which have established differentiated competitive advantages [1] Group 2: Bond Market - The bond market is experiencing a divergence between government bonds and corporate credit bonds, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stabilizing around 3.8% and investment-grade corporate bond spreads narrowing to 150 basis points [1] - Green bonds issued by certain companies received oversubscription due to carbon neutrality certification, while convertible bonds are favored by hedge funds due to their conversion premium advantages [1] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended for bond portfolio allocation, focusing on high-rated short-duration bonds and inflation-protected securities (TIPS) [1] Group 3: Gold as an Asset - Gold is undergoing a repositioning as a traditional safe-haven asset, with physical gold ETF holdings reaching record highs, although digital currencies are increasingly seen as alternatives [1] - The current price of London gold is around $1,950 per ounce, reflecting a 12% decline from its 2024 peak [1] - Investment strategies include indirect exposure through gold mining stocks or structured products linked to gold prices to capture rebound opportunities while managing volatility risks [1] Group 4: Investment Portfolio Construction - The Morningstar Q2 2025 report suggests a "433" allocation strategy: 40% in stocks, 30% in bonds, and 30% in alternative assets, including gold ETFs and commodity funds [1] - This allocation considers the growth potential of certain growth stocks while providing yield protection through high-yield bonds and hedging tail risks with precious metal derivatives [1] - As the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction nears its end, investors are encouraged to monitor interest-sensitive assets, credit spread indices, and volatility indicators for dynamic asset allocation adjustments [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current market is characterized by a seasonal pattern in the bond market, with a higher probability of interest rate declines from December to early February, followed by potential adjustments in late January or mid-February to March or late April [1][3][4] - The bond market is not in a bear market but is in a mid-bull market position, influenced by weak fundamentals and ample liquidity, despite increased volatility due to static yield insufficiency and dynamic duration issues [1][5][6] Economic Conditions - Domestic fundamentals have weakened, with retail sales and real estate investment data declining, while industrial production remains resilient, with July's industrial value-added growing by 5.7% year-on-year [1][10] - The GDP growth rate is approximately 4.9%, indicating economic pressure and the need for future policy adjustments [1][10] - Manufacturing investment has significantly declined due to tariffs and anti-involution policies, leading companies to focus more on cash flow and overseas production [1][12] Market Dynamics - The equity market has performed strongly since July, while the bond market has shown relative weakness, indicating a complex relationship rather than a simple "stock-bond seesaw" phenomenon [2][7] - The macroeconomic situation in 2025 resembles a combination of 2019 and 2020, with low coupon rates posing significant challenges [6][9] Policy Implications - The central bank's focus has shifted from total credit volume to maintaining the health and safety of the banking system, making interest rate cuts more challenging [16] - There is an expectation of increased fiscal or quasi-fiscal policy measures around late October, particularly in response to rising economic pressures [15][20] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on cyclical sectors such as non-bank financials, metals, and coal, while also monitoring the domestic capital expenditure (CAPEX) trends in the third quarter [19] - Caution is advised in sectors with poor performance and no signs of recovery, with a preference for sectors showing positive momentum [19] Consumer Market Trends - The consumer market is experiencing a slowdown in retail sales growth, particularly in durable goods, while service consumption remains resilient, with a 5.8% year-on-year growth in the service production index for July [10][14] - The shift in policy focus from goods to services is evident, as the government aims to support service consumption amid declining goods sales [13][14] Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to maintain interest rates below 2%, with significant resistance anticipated at the 1.5% level based on historical trends from the U.S. and Japan [28][29] - The current macroeconomic environment suggests that while there may be fluctuations, a significant downturn in the bond market is not expected [28][29] Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious yet optimistic, with a focus on structural policies aimed at enhancing domestic demand and addressing demographic challenges [20][25]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The macroeconomic environment significantly impacts the Hong Kong stock market, with global economic growth directly affecting trade and finance in Hong Kong [1] - A rising global economy can lead to increased market demand, benefiting companies' revenues and profits, thus driving the overall stock market upward [1] - Local economic policies, including fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies, are crucial variables influencing the stock market [1] Group 2: Industry Development Trends - Different industries exhibit varying performances in the Hong Kong stock market, making it essential for investors to follow industry trends [2] - The emerging technology sector has gained prominence, with innovative companies attracting significant attention due to their growth potential [2] - Traditional industries, such as resources and manufacturing, face constraints from market demand changes and cost fluctuations [2] Group 3: Company Fundamentals - A company's financial health is a core aspect of its fundamentals, requiring analysis of balance sheets, income statements, and cash flow statements [2] - Stable revenue growth, reasonable debt levels, and strong cash flow indicate good operational health and resilience [2] - Governance structures are also important, as effective governance ensures sound decision-making and protects shareholder interests [2] Group 4: Market Valuation Levels - Accurate assessment of market valuation is critical for determining investment value, with common metrics including Price-to-Earnings (PE) and Price-to-Book (PB) ratios [3] - Comparing current valuation metrics with historical data and peer markets helps investors identify whether the market is overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued [3] - Currency exchange rates, particularly the peg of the Hong Kong dollar to the US dollar, can significantly influence investment returns [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields**: On August 18, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields in the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.334%, 4.737%, 3.447% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.033 (Italy) to 0.041 (UK), weekly changes from - 0.004 (Japan) to 0.173 (UK), monthly changes from - 0.126 (Switzerland) to 0.155 (France), and annual changes from - 0.274 (Japan) to 0.760 (UK) [2]. - **2 - Year Treasury Yields**: On August 18, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.740%, 3.959%, 1.956% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.024 (Australia) to 0.070 (US), weekly changes from - 0.200 (US) to 0.186 (Italy), monthly changes from - 0.703 (Italy) to 0.553 (Japan), and annual changes showed various trends [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: On August 18, 2025, the US dollar - to - emerging - economy currency exchange rates such as South African rand, Brazilian real, etc. had different values. The latest changes ranged from - 0.69% (Russian ruble) to 0.65% (South African rand), weekly changes from - 2.35% (South African rand) to 0.38% (South Korean won), monthly changes from - 8.22% (Thai baht) to 0.77% (South Korean won), and annual changes also varied [2]. - **Stock Indices**: On August 18, 2025, major global stock indices like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, etc. had different closing values. The latest changes ranged from - 0.50% (Mexican index) to 0.21% (Nasdaq), weekly changes from - 0.18% (UK index) to 8.70% (Spanish index), monthly changes from 8.78% (Mexican index) to 44.46% (Spanish index), and annual changes also showed different trends [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The latest changes in credit bond indices ranged from - 0.08% to 0.08%, weekly changes from - 0.06% to 0.56%, monthly changes from - 0.13% to 2.43%, and annual changes from 4.84% to 15.88% [2][3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were 3728.03, 4239.41, 2838.87, 2606.20, and 6668.17 respectively, with daily changes of 0.85%, 0.88%, 0.21%, 2.84%, and 1.52% [4]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were 13.54, 11.56, 31.94, 27.34, and 20.08 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.08, 0.04, 0.37, 0.00, and - 0.04 [4]. - **Risk Premium**: The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 and German DAX were - 0.68 and 2.22 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.02 and 0.04 [4]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest values of fund flows in A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were 78.73, - 179.13, N/A, 216.70, and 110.91 respectively, and the 5 - day average values were - 306.54, - 333.88, N/A, 26.76, and 51.22 [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, SME board, and ChiNext were 27641.63, 6353.66, 1621.58, 5485.68, and 8295.86 respectively, with环比 changes of 5195.51, 1166.79, 199.53, 1082.87, and 1773.47 [4]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC were - 1.61, 9.53, and - 60.17 respectively, with basis ratios of - 0.04%, 0.34%, and - 0.90% [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices**: The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.015, 105.455, 107.865, and 105.380 respectively, with daily changes of 0.00% [5]. - **Funding Rates**: The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.5037%, 1.5030%, and 1.5490% respectively, with daily changes of 1.00 BP, 1.00 BP, and 0.00 BP [5]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a "seesaw" effect, with the bond market declining while the A-share market is rising, indicating a shift in capital flows [1][3] - The bond market previously thrived due to economic slowdown and stock market volatility, but recent policy measures have strengthened expectations for economic recovery, making stock market returns more attractive [3][4] - The recent rise in A-shares is driven by solid sectors such as consumer recovery and leading manufacturing companies, reflecting a fundamental-based investment approach rather than speculative trading [3][4] Group 2 - For long-term investors, understanding the overarching logic of economic recovery and corporate profit improvement is crucial for identifying mid-term opportunities in the stock market [4] - The bond market should not be dismissed entirely; quality bonds can still serve as a stabilizing asset in a diversified portfolio [5] - Investment strategies should adapt to market conditions, balancing between stocks for growth and bonds for stability, while avoiding impulsive decisions based on short-term market fluctuations [5]

Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares and the ChiNext index led global gains with an increase of 8.6%[27] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 3.0% and the Nikkei 225 increased by 3.7%[27] - Emerging markets, particularly A-shares, outperformed developed markets, with the overall A-share market up by 3.0% last week[31] Group 2: Currency and Commodity Trends - The US dollar index fell by 0.4%, while the euro, pound, and yen appreciated by 0.5%, 0.8%, and 0.4% respectively[5] - Since the beginning of the year, the US dollar index has decreased by 9.8%, with the euro, pound, and yen rising by 13%, 8.3%, and 6.4% respectively[5] - Commodity prices saw a general increase, with the South China and CRB commodity indices both rising by 0.5%[71] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The yield curve for Chinese bonds exhibited a "bear steepening" pattern, with the 10-year yield rising by 5.7 basis points to 1.75%[45] - The 10-year to 2-year yield spread for US bonds also expanded, indicating a "bear steepening" trend, with the 10-year yield increasing by 6 basis points to 4.33%[50] Group 4: Risk Premium Analysis - The risk premium for the CSI 300 relative to 10-year government bonds decreased to 5.7%, down by 0.14% from the previous value[19] - The risk premium for the S&P 500 relative to 10-year US Treasuries fell to -0.8%, a decrease of 0.10%[19]

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7% [1] - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month and 49.4% in the same period last year [1] - The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in July 2025 was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month but slightly higher than 50.2% in the same period last year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 General - In July 2025, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year. From January to July, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, with real estate development investment down 12% [2] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the effects of the implemented policies will further emerge [2] - The CSRC approved the registration of options on fuel oil, petroleum asphalt, and pulp at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, as well as the registration of futures and options on offset printing paper [2] 2.2 Metals - The first - batch of total control indicators for rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2025 have been issued to relevant companies, and it is expected that these indicators may no longer be publicly announced [5] - In July 2025, global physical gold ETFs had an inflow of $3.2 billion, and the total assets under management reached a record high of $386 billion [5] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In early August 2025, coal prices in China showed an all - round increase, with the price of coke rising by nearly 10% [7] - In July 2025, China's industrial raw coal production was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%; crude oil production was 18.12 million tons, an increase of 1.2%; natural gas production was 21.6 billion cubic meters, an increase of 7.4% [8] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - China's Sinopec discovered a large - scale deep - seated shale gas field with newly proven geological reserves of 124.588 billion cubic meters [10] - Indonesia expects its oil production to reach 610,000 barrels per day in 2026 and its natural gas production to reach 984,000 barrels per day [10] 2.5 Agricultural Products - On August 15, 2025, the average price of live pigs was 13.76 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 0.36%, while the average price of 15 - kg piglets was 28.87 yuan/kg, a weekly decrease of 5.03% [12] - As of early August 2025, the purchase of summer wheat in China exceeded 80 million tons, faster than last year [12] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - This week, 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, and 22 billion yuan of treasury cash time deposits will mature on Tuesday and Wednesday [13] - On August 15, the central bank conducted 238 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 116 billion yuan [13] 3.2 Key News - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on promoting a reasonable recovery of prices and optimizing the credit structure [14] - In July 2025, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year [15] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market was weak, with most yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rising, and most treasury bond futures closing down [20] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.90% to 475.25 points, with a trading volume of 103.1 billion yuan [20] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1823, down 93 basis points from the previous trading day [23] - The US dollar index fell 0.36% to 97.8509, and most non - US currencies rose [23] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - Guosheng Fixed - Income believes that the central bank emphasizes promoting a reasonable recovery of prices, and current credit delivery focuses more on quality [24] - Huatai Fixed - Income believes that the economic data in July were slightly volatile, and the "fixed - income +" strategy is favored [24] 4. Stock Market News - As of August 15, 2025, 310 stocks had more than doubled in price this year, excluding new listings [28] - China Securities recommends focusing on five strong industries: innovative drugs, resources, communications, military, and gaming [28] - As of August 15, 2025, 936 out of 1,785 funds established in 2021 had a net value above 1, accounting for 52.44% [29]