首席点评：首个关税贸易协议获将达成 市场风险情绪有所好转 英国和美国就关税贸易协议条款达成一致，英国将对美商品关税从 5.1%降至1.8%，美国则维持对英进 口商品10%的统一关税不变，英国将进一步放宽对美商品市场准入，特朗普表示协议最终细节将在接下 来几周内敲定。欧盟将就美关税向世贸组织提出诉讼，并准备对950亿欧元自美国进口产品采取反制措 施。在宣布美英两国达成贸易协议时，特朗普说"最好现在就出去买股票"。特朗普再批鲍威尔动作慢， 称所有央行都降息，美联储是例外。印巴冲突升级，多地发生爆炸。中国国家主席同俄罗斯总统普京会 谈。中美将就经贸问题会谈，路透社援引知情人士的话称，会谈预计讨论全面降低关税、取消特定产品 关税、美国取消的中国商品小额豁免政策以及中国对美国公司的出口管制。 重点品种：氧化铝、原油、航运 氧化铝： 夜盘沪铝主力合约收涨 0.46%。海外角度，特朗普关税态度有所反复；国内降准降息，货币 环境趋于宽松。基本面角度，氧化铝再度收跌，未来供需预计宽松，但当前部分厂商利润较低、存在检 修现象，因此期货再度下跌还需看到铝土矿价格的继续走弱，以及氧化铝厂商的复产。据SMM消息， 近期铝加工环节除铝线 ...

投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年5月8日 贾利军 从业资格证号： F0256916 投资咨询证号: Z0000671 电话: 021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号: F03092124 投资咨询证号: Z0018827 电话: 021-80128600-8631 刘慧峰 从业资格证号: F3033924 投资咨询证号: Z0013026 电话: 021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号: F03091165 投资咨询证号: Z0019876 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号: F03089928 投资咨询证号: Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号: Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 宏观金融: 央行超预期降准和降息，美联储维持利率不变 【宏观】 海外方面，美联储按兵不动维持利率不变，以及 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fell due to continuous supply - side pressure and the possibility of further easing of geopolitical risks, increasing market concerns about a loose supply - demand pattern. After a short - term rebound, oil prices will continue to be under pressure and mainly fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis. The suggested fluctuation ranges are [57, 67] for WTI, [59, 70] for Brent, and [450, 510] for SC [2]. Urea - In the short - term, the futures price follows the fundamentals. The early arrival of the agricultural fertilizer - preparation peak season and industrial orders provide certain support, and the delayed resumption of maintenance devices supports the supply in the short - term. If the export policy is relaxed beyond expectations, the upside space of the futures price will expand. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and buy volatility on the options side [30][32]. Styrene - The pure benzene market price stopped falling and rebounded, but the weak supply - demand structure has not changed. The styrene market rose and then fell, with port inventories continuing to decline. The supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand relationship is under pressure. It is recommended to short styrene at high levels [35][38]. Methanol - The inland methanol price is stable, but there is downward pressure on valuation. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are differentiated. The port has entered an inventory - accumulation cycle, and the 09 contract is under pressure. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract at high levels [42]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the medium - term supply - demand outlook is weak, and it is recommended to short at high levels. In the short - term, wait and see the short - term rebound. For PVC, the supply - demand surplus is obvious, and it is recommended to short at high levels, but beware of price rebounds due to policy stimuli [46][51]. Polyolefins - For LLDPE, the supply pressure will gradually decrease in May, but beware of a significant decline in demand. It is recommended to hold short positions until the price reaches a low level. For PP, the supply pressure eases slightly in the second - quarter maintenance season, but the long - term outlook is weak, with a downward risk [54]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, it is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, with the PX09 fluctuating in the 6000 - 6400 range. For PTA, the short - term supply - demand is tight, and the TA09 is expected to fluctuate in the 4200 - 4500 range. For MEG, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the EG09 in the 4050 - 4300 range. For short - fiber, follow the raw materials and look for opportunities to expand the processing fee of PF06. For bottle - chips, the absolute price follows the raw materials, and the processing fee is supported to some extent [58]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent crude oil was at $61.08 on February 8th and $61.12 on May 7th, with a decline of $0.04 (- 0.07%); WTI was at $58.07 on both dates. The spreads of various crude oil varieties also changed to different degrees [2]. - **EIA Data**: As of the week ending May 2, 2025, U.S. crude oil production was 13.367 million barrels per day, a decrease from the previous value. Refinery utilization rate was 89%. There were changes in inventory, production, import, and export data of various oil products [5]. Urea - **Futures and Spot**: Futures contract prices showed different changes, with the 01 - 05 contract spread decreasing by 8.26%. Spot prices in different regions increased slightly. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.44%, and the factory - inventory decreased by 10.58% on a weekly basis [30][32]. Styrene - **Upstream**: Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and other upstream raw material prices changed. Pure benzene prices rose, and the import profit was - 163.4 yuan/ton [35]. - **Spot and Futures**: The styrene spot and futures prices rose, and the EB2506 increased by 1.5%. The port inventory of styrene decreased by 7.0% [36][38]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: Futures contract prices increased, and the MA2505 - 2509 spread increased by 7.25%. The port - inland regional spread increased. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The enterprise inventory increased by 7.26%, and the port inventory increased by 2.69%. The upstream and downstream operating rates showed different changes [42]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot had small changes. The SH2505 increased by 2.0%, and the V2505 increased by 0.7%. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda and PVC operating rates increased slightly. The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends [46][49][50]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PE and PP futures contracts increased slightly. The L2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 10.70%. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 21.31%, and PP enterprise inventory increased by 19.76%. The operating rates of PE and PP showed different changes [54]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: Downstream polyester product prices such as POY, FDY, and DTY increased. PX - related prices and spreads also changed. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: MEG port inventory decreased by 1.3%, and the operating rates of various products in the polyester industry chain changed to different degrees [58].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report believes that the crude oil market is in a situation where bearish factors prevail, and the crude oil is expected to run weakly with a volatile and downward trend. The main reasons are the increasing supply and the relatively weak demand in the short - term [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract ended its rebound on Wednesday night, with the price dropping significantly by 2.16% to 448.4 yuan/barrel. It is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend on Thursday night [5]. - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of crude oil 2507 are all "volatile and weak", and the overall view is "weakly running" [1][5]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: OPEC+ oil - producing countries will further accelerate the pace of production increase in June, and the output of US shale oil is also growing steadily, which intensifies the expectation of oil market supply surplus [5]. - Demand: In May, the crude oil demand in the Northern Hemisphere remains in the off - season mode, and the consumption power will gradually increase in June. The refinery operating rate maintains a stable and volatile trend, and the pressure of commercial crude oil inventory accumulation is prominent [5].

文字早评 2025/05/08 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+0.80%，创指+0.51%，科创 50+0.36%，北证 50-0.46%，上证 50+0.87%，沪深 300+0.61%， 中证 500+0.17%，中证 1000+0.14%，中证 2000+0.74%，万得微盘+1.22%。两市合计成交 14683 亿，较上 一日+1321 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、潘功胜：将下调金融机构存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点，并下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点，从目前的 1.5% 下调到 1.4%，同时下调住房公积金利率 0.25 个百分点。 2、A 股 4 月新开户 192 万户，同比增长 31%。 3、证监会印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》，绑定投资者利益，基金经理薪酬与收益挂钩、 费率调降。 资金面：融资额+143.70 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率-4.50bp 至 1.6570%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率+0.04bp 至 3.0940%，十年期国债利率+1.76bp 至 1.6458%，信用利差-1.72bp 至 145bp；美国 10 年期利率-6.00bp ...

周三（5月7日）因美联储按兵不动，以及鲍威尔重申愿意等前景更明朗再行动，美元指数走强，最终收涨0.64%，报99.90。基准的10年期美债收益率收报 4.274%；对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率收报3.787%。因市场对贸易谈判持乐观态度，加上美元走强，现货黄金日内大跌逾60美元，最终收跌 1.93%，报3364.24美元/盎司。 美联储主席鲍威尔在会后的新闻发布会上明确表示，美联储并不急于降息。当前经济面临极大的不确定性，尤其是在美国政府正与多国就关税问题展开谈判 的背景下。鲍威尔多次强调，目前判断这些关税将对经济产生何种影响还为时过早。对于未来是否还会进一步降息的问题，鲍威尔没有给出明确答案。他表 示，他可以设想以下情形：今年内美联储可能会降息，但也有可能不会采取这一举措。在地缘政治持续不稳定、贸易环境不确定以及美国今年晚些时候降息 预期的背景下，黄金的避险地位仍得到良好支撑。 综合来看，金价周初涨幅太大，所以周三早间就迎来了一波回调，但是仍然没有改变多头走势，日内还是震荡上行来看待，操作上可以参考3350-3360区域 布局多单，看至3430-3440区域。 因伊朗与美国达成核协议的希望缓解了市场对 ...

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月7日 张晓珍 Z0003135 PE PP价格及价差 | 品种 | 5月6日 | 4月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2505 收盘价 | 7230 | 7273 | -43 | -0.59% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 6987 | 7083 | -96 | -1.36% | | | PP2505 收盘价 | 7105 | 7126 | -21 | -0.29% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | ୧୦୦୧ | 7041 | -46 | -0.65% | | | L2505-2509 | 243 | 190 | 53 | 27.89% | | | PP2505-2509 | 110 | 82 | 25 | 29.41% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7130 | 7200 | -70 | -0.97% | | | 华北LDPE膜料现货 | 7230 | 7300 | -70 | -0.96% | | | 华北 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to run with a slightly bullish trend in the short - term (Wednesday night), while showing a weakening trend in the medium - term. The market is currently digesting bearish factors, and after the holiday, the contract opened lower to absorb the negative news. With the price rebounding slightly on Tuesday night, it may maintain a slightly bullish trend on Wednesday night [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil (SC) Market Analysis - **Supply Situation**: OPEC+ countries will increase production at a faster pace in June, and U.S. shale oil production is also growing steadily, leading to an increased expectation of supply surplus in the oil market [5]. - **Demand Situation**: In May, the demand for crude oil in the Northern Hemisphere remains in the off - season, and the consumption power will gradually increase in June. The refinery operating rate remains stable, and the pressure of commercial crude oil inventory accumulation is prominent [5]. - **Price Movement**: After the holiday, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract opened significantly lower and ran weakly to digest bearish factors. On Tuesday night, the oil price stopped falling, stabilized, and rebounded 1.62% to 457.3 yuan/barrel [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that the crude oil futures 2507 contract will maintain a slightly bullish trend on Wednesday night [5].

Core Insights - The recent decline in oil prices has led to U.S. shale oil producers beginning to formulate contraction plans as prices fell below $60 per barrel [1] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised down its forecast for domestic crude oil production for the year, projecting an average daily output of 13.42 million barrels by 2025, which is a decrease of approximately 100,000 barrels from the previous month's estimate [1] - The revised forecast does not account for the latest U.S. tariff levels or the production increase agreed upon by OPEC and its allies [1]

期指全线飘红，原油系领跌商品市场 "五一"假期后的首个交易日，国内商品市场"绿肥红瘦"，涨跌不一，文华商品指数下跌0.71%，报收于 157.27点。其中，受假期国际原油价格下挫影响，原油板块承压，领跌市场。因黑色产业链终端需求预 期疲软，焦炭和硅铁价格跌幅居前。沪金价格明显反弹，但有色金属板块整体以下跌为主。农产品板 块，鸡蛋价格跌幅超2%，油脂类商品普遍收跌。此外，A股和股指市场高开高走，全面飘红。 谈及原油价格大幅下跌，中信期货研究所高级研究员何颢昀接受期货日报记者采访时表示，供应端变量 是主要推手。 "OPEC+5月会议提前于5月3日召开，会上同意6月再次增产，继续保持5月41万桶/日的账面增产幅度。 此外，会后有部分消息人士表示OPEC+7月会议有可能再次选择加速增产。市场进一步计价OPEC+增产 带来的供应宽松预期，布伦特原油一度跌破60美元/桶。"他说。 据何颢昀介绍，近期中东地缘冲突有重新激化的迹象，以色列有可能针对加沙地区发动新一轮进攻，胡 塞武装表示将打击运输美国原油的油轮。此外，特朗普上任以来一直威胁将对伊朗极限施压，美伊谈判 也被推迟。不过，目前伊朗原油出口目的地主要是中国，在当前中美 ...